Sports Cards Mania

Deathofthebambino

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I think it moves the needle to some extent. Not an expert on this, but my impression is that people Wander hunting are doing it for short-term gains and likely aiming for parallels - the base are moving but the sheer number of them and ungradeds going for like 10-15 on Ebay isn't making up for these slots valuable in the long run. Most I imagine would know the 1/1 is a complete absurd long-shot but it's also likely the most expensive card in the set, so losing that top prize lottery ticket is going to take it down. We've also seen some of the other biggest hits pulled and gone to market (2 of the #10 acetates, several 1/1s (sketch, autos, etc.), a decent number of the /25 and /71) - basically the cards that make the whole thing back and then some.

I still think the prices will be kind of dumb on these but not having those biggest chase cards feels like it has to hurt the overall value of the slot...if the buyer knows it.
This is mostly true. Nobody is buying into breaks thinking they have a realistic shot at the 1/1 Wander. There are a lot of other cards of his that still would turn a huge profit, and are more likely to be hit. As you note in your last paragraph, the idea that everyone knows the Wander 1/1 got hit is foolish. I would bet maybe less than 10% of the sports card market will even realize that card got pulled for a while.

And in sports cards, "a while" is about a month, and by that time, you won't even see many Topps 2022 being broken, because by then, you'll have another half dozen products released by Panini or Topps/Bowman. Basically, a new product is released by these companies on a weekly basis, and the new products dominate the breaking market for about a week, and then the next one starts. Prices on these cards, or any cards, are at their peak in the 1st couple of weeks of the product release. After that, and as cards hit the market (Ebay), prices will come down, particularly on the base stuff (again, unless your name is Trout, Brady, Mahomes, Lebron, Luka, etc.), so the Wander 1/1 getting pulled will have no impact on pricing until pricing inevitably falls as it normally would.
 

BernieRicoBoomer

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So I'm looking on the website for Baseball Card Exchange and found an unopened wax box for 1982 Topps baseball. They have the very same box, but marked as "From A Sealed Case" and about a thousand buck more. Both of these boxes are "authenticated" whatever that means. I am struggling to understand the drastic difference in price here. Is it because the sealed case version is much less likely to have been tampered with? Is it related to the potential condition of the cards inside? If the cheaper box is authenticated shouldn't that be some type of guarantee that the packs have never been opened? I have no idea if it would be worth the much higher price tag for that FASC box. Anybody have experience with this, or this company?
 

Ale Xander

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That would be normal for modern boxes that have tons on inserts and parallels but isn’t 1982 base only?
it’s not like the other boxes have the hits and you can surmise this one is “empty”

weird

what’s the cost of the cheaper one?
 

BernieRicoBoomer

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That’s cray cray

the Ripken is not guaranteed

you need to pull it and then get it 9.5 or 10 graded to have it make sense, no?
Funny you say that...I just opened two rack packs from '82 that I bought from another place and managed to get the Ripken in one of those.

But my goal here is not to sell what I open. I want to complete all the regular Topps sets beginning with 82 on up to present day. The catch being that I want to mostly do that through opening packs. I love to open packs and it's a nostalgia thing for me. I don't get much joy from buying individual cards and even less from buying sets of cards. I assume it will get much cheaper as I move into the years of mega-production.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I just sent out emails to a bunch of card shops trying to sell my 1968 sets. I will miss those cards, I remember buying nearly every pack with my allowance and a bonus I got for (finally) learning how to ride my bike
 

Ale Xander

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Funny you say that...I just opened two rack packs from '82 that I bought from another place and managed to get the Ripken in one of those.

But my goal here is not to sell what I open. I want to complete all the regular Topps sets beginning with 82 on up to present day. The catch being that I want to mostly do that through opening packs. I love to open packs and it's a nostalgia thing for me. I don't get much joy from buying individual cards and even less from buying sets of cards. I assume it will get much cheaper as I move into the years of mega-production.
Ok have fun! Just remember it gets increasingly harder to find a card you don't have the closer you get to completion.

I opened a box of 88 Donruss a year or so ago (over I think 6 or so weeks) for $10. Hard for me personally to get nostalgia that's worth it for a box without inserts. (I don't count the 10 cent MVP cards as inserts) at the price yopu'll be paying. (But obviously everyone is different)
Pulled 2 Glavines, 1 with horrible centering, but neither a 2nd? year Bonds nor 4th? year Clemens.

Hopefully you have better collation.
 

LogansDad

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Funny you say that...I just opened two rack packs from '82 that I bought from another place and managed to get the Ripken in one of those.

But my goal here is not to sell what I open. I want to complete all the regular Topps sets beginning with 82 on up to present day. The catch being that I want to mostly do that through opening packs. I love to open packs and it's a nostalgia thing for me. I don't get much joy from buying individual cards and even less from buying sets of cards. I assume it will get much cheaper as I move into the years of mega-production.
You're like me, but with actual goals and, I'm assuming, better organization skills.
 

Deathofthebambino

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It's $785 (36 packs inside, 15 cards each)
Honestly, while the Ripken isn't guaranteed, I'd say you have a better chance of getting more than 1 Ripken than zero Ripkens.

A PSA 10 Ripken from 1982 will fetch around $5,000-$5,500. There is another Ripken card in that set too, the future stars (with 3 Orioles Rookies, Ripken, Bob Bonner and Jeff Schneider) and the PSA 10 of that card gets about 2k. Most HOF'ers (Nolan Ryan, Brett, Rickey, Schmidt, Bench, etc. will get around $400-$700 if they grade a 10.

A PSA 9 Ripken rookie will drop from 5k to about $600 on average. The future stars one will drop from 2k to about $150.00. A PSA 9 will look virtually perfect to 99% of the population.

Of course, getting a PSA 9 or 10 out of any 1982 Topps is literally like catching lightning in a bottle. I can't even tell you guys how many cards I've sent in for grading that I thought could come back as a 9 or higher, and came back as a 6 or 7 from those years (I have every baseball card made, in all of the major products from 1976-1994 and probably doubles of more than 70% of them, although most of the non-set ones are beat to shit).

If my goal wasn't to sell or get them graded, I'm buying the cheaper box all day long. The reason the pricing is so different on the boxes from a sealed case versus just a sealed box is handling. If it's coming from a sealed case, it means it was literally still in the cardboard box which contained 24 boxes of 36 cards each. They individual boxes have literally never been handled. Authenticated boxes from sealed cases are hard to find, where as boxes that have been removed from cases for 40 years have been moved with their owners from house to house, put on shelfs, etc. The chances of the box itself being damaged (and potentially the cards inside) is far higher. Here is what a sealed box from an unopened case looks like if anyone is curious (this just sold for $1,303.00 on 3/1):

49878
49879

This is just an unopened box, still authenticated, that just sold for $460.00:

49880
49881
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I’m disappointed to see how little a regular 82 topps Ripken (with the two other guys) is worth now, that was a holy grail card growing up!

that being said, as a collector and someone who has no interest in selling any of my old cards, I kind of like the cards that have a little wear and tear. More character!
 

Deathofthebambino

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It will be interesting to see what this Wander Franco card goes for:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/134045054876?hash=item1f35b5379c:g:k~sAAOSw6nZiHTk-
It's a bit of a weird card. 2019 Bowman Sapphire cards do not come autographed. The entire set is base cards and parallels, but no autos. That means someone, along the way, got the card autographed by Wander, as opposed to Topps/Bowman releasing it with an auto. In some cases, an after market auto will hurt the value, but in this case, it appears to be helping, although I'd be surprised if it goes significantly higher than the $1,050.00 or so it is right now. It doesn't look to me to be a parallel, non-numbered, so unless the seller fucked up and didn't list it right, that's just a base Bowman Sapphire, with a gem mint 10 grade, and an after market auto. The auto has been psa/dna certified, and both the auto and the card got a gem mint 10 grade, so that's good.

Just the base card, gem mint 10 prices have been all over the place, in the past month, ranging from $280.00-$590.00.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/265509016728?hash=item3dd1921498:g:GQQAAOSwKJ5hvNVx

https://www.ebay.com/itm/194851434132?hash=item2d5e0cee94:g:-i4AAOSwpnNiEFBT

https://www.ebay.com/itm/224847033397?hash=item3459ed7435:g:PlgAAOSwFvNiEX40

https://www.ebay.com/itm/144384539195?hash=item219dfd3a3b:g:YJMAAOSwXdBh72qF

Ungraded after market autos seem to be going for around $500

https://www.ebay.com/itm/144384539195?hash=item219dfd3a3b:g:YJMAAOSwXdBh72qF


I would guess between $1,250-$1,500.00, but of course, it just takes 2 guys to make an auction go crazy.
 

BernieRicoBoomer

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I love opening these packs with the inserts, relics, autos, etc. But, what on earth am I going to do with the mounting piles of base cards? I must have 12+ full sets worth by now.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I love opening these packs with the inserts, relics, autos, etc. But, what on earth am I going to do with the mounting piles of base cards? I must have 12+ full sets worth by now.
Whatever you don't, don't toss them for a bit, especially rookie cards. I bought tens of thousands of Panini Prizm basketball cards from 2015-2020, and almost tossed all of the base cards, including rookies, as they were worth, at the time, next to nothing. Then the market exploded, and those guys that became stars, Tatum, Booker, Jokic, Mitchell, etc. have base cards that are going for $100+ from those sets. I had probably north of 100 of each of them, and have sold them off in lots of 3 for $225-$350 or so ever since the market took off. With baseball, and less expensive products, you probably won't get that kind of return, but if the next Trout or Wander or Tatis or Vlad Jr. or whoever is in there, in xxxx years, those annoying base cards could be worth real money...
 

Traut

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It's a bit of a weird card. 2019 Bowman Sapphire cards do not come autographed. The entire set is base cards and parallels, but no autos. That means someone, along the way, got the card autographed by Wander, as opposed to Topps/Bowman releasing it with an auto. In some cases, an after market auto will hurt the value, but in this case, it appears to be helping, although I'd be surprised if it goes significantly higher than the $1,050.00 or so it is right now. It doesn't look to me to be a parallel, non-numbered, so unless the seller fucked up and didn't list it right, that's just a base Bowman Sapphire, with a gem mint 10 grade, and an after market auto. The auto has been psa/dna certified, and both the auto and the card got a gem mint 10 grade, so that's good.

Just the base card, gem mint 10 prices have been all over the place, in the past month, ranging from $280.00-$590.00.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/265509016728?hash=item3dd1921498:g:GQQAAOSwKJ5hvNVx

https://www.ebay.com/itm/194851434132?hash=item2d5e0cee94:g:-i4AAOSwpnNiEFBT

https://www.ebay.com/itm/224847033397?hash=item3459ed7435:g:PlgAAOSwFvNiEX40

https://www.ebay.com/itm/144384539195?hash=item219dfd3a3b:g:YJMAAOSwXdBh72qF

Ungraded after market autos seem to be going for around $500

https://www.ebay.com/itm/144384539195?hash=item219dfd3a3b:g:YJMAAOSwXdBh72qF


I would guess between $1,250-$1,500.00, but of course, it just takes 2 guys to make an auction go crazy.
That is fascinating. Thank you for this. This is why I stay in lane - there are so many cards, so many variables, and so much money - it is hard to know what that card is for a guy like me.
 

BernieRicoBoomer

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Whatever you don't, don't toss them for a bit, especially rookie cards. I bought tens of thousands of Panini Prizm basketball cards from 2015-2020, and almost tossed all of the base cards, including rookies, as they were worth, at the time, next to nothing. Then the market exploded, and those guys that became stars, Tatum, Booker, Jokic, Mitchell, etc. have base cards that are going for $100+ from those sets. I had probably north of 100 of each of them, and have sold them off in lots of 3 for $225-$350 or so ever since the market took off. With baseball, and less expensive products, you probably won't get that kind of return, but if the next Trout or Wander or Tatis or Vlad Jr. or whoever is in there, in xxxx years, those annoying base cards could be worth real money...
Thanks, that's a good call!
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Anyone else in to trying to get autographs through the mail? I’ve gotten back into it after a 30 or so absence and am having a lot of fun with it. Bought a book which provides players addresses and tells you who signs (many of the retired guys will charge $5-$20) and have had great success in the last few months. Maybe it’s a function of being stuck working from home for so long but checking the mail each day has become a pretty exciting part of the day.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Anyone else in to trying to get autographs through the mail? I’ve gotten back into it after a 30 or so absence and am having a lot of fun with it. Bought a book which provides players addresses and tells you who signs (many of the retired guys will charge $5-$20) and have had great success in the last few months. Maybe it’s a function of being stuck working from home for so long but checking the mail each day has become a pretty exciting part of the day.
Who you want? We are downsizing. Been told already a few of our mail items are fakes/secretaries.
 

JoePoulson

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That's awesome. Last time I did it was for Bobby Doerr prolly 10 years ago. He promptly returned the ball with a really nice auto.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Yeah Doerr was known for being a great signer. Last month or so, I’ve gotten Boggs, Eck, Sandberg, Herzog, Mussina, Selig (ugh), Cepeda, Jim Palmer, Mazeroski, Keith Hernandez, Juan Gonzalez, Saberhagen, Tom Kelly, Marc Gubicza, Carl Erskine, Palmeiro, Kent Hrbek, Sparky Lyle and a few others. Chris Bassitt is the only active player I’ve gotten back.

It’s weird for the guys who ask for payment; like I felt strange writing a check for $10 to Mike Mussina. I write to Lee Smith and got a funny note back “Mr. Smith requires $25 to sign this item. Thank you, Mrs. Smith”. But I totally get it, I know many are donating to charity and why not get a piece, especially for the older guys.

As a 40+ year old adult whose daughters have no interest in baseball, I have no idea what I plan to do with all these cards but I have enjoyed getting back into it, and I’d like to think that some of the retired players appreciate being remembered.
 

JoePoulson

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My buddy's dad used to road trip to old negro league player's houses to stop by and simply say hi and to chat. He's a HUGE collector and loves baseball so much (he was a college professor so he had lots of time to drive around. Mostly when I'd go over to visit he would be laying on the floor with his feet up in the couch watching either the Cubs or Indians).
 

Deathofthebambino

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If anyone is interested in seeing a $250,000-$500,000 card get pulled (my estimate), watch this break. The last card to come out is a 1/1 triple logoman of Curry/Giannis/Durant.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cV4gjusrGtU


This product, Panini Flawless costs $15,000-$20,000 per briefcase (2 briefcases per case) for 10 cards. Drake recently bought 15 cases and posted him opening them online, in the hopes of getting one of the five different triple logomans in the product.
 

Oil Can Dan

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Just let me make sure I understand this. That card is worth $250k+. Okay. It has the NBA logo from game-worn jerseys and autographs from Curry, Giannis and Durant.

How much would it cost to buy a full autographed game-worn jersey for Curry, Giannis and Durant? $5k each seems very generous on that front but I don’t really know. But let’s say that’s in the ballpark - which would you rather have? The full jersey intact, or the little logo man thing?

I don’t get it.
 

Traut

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Just let me make sure I understand this. That card is worth $250k+. Okay. It has the NBA logo from game-worn jerseys and autographs from Curry, Giannis and Durant.

How much would it cost to buy a full autographed game-worn jersey for Curry, Giannis and Durant? $5k each seems very generous on that front but I don’t really know. But let’s say that’s in the ballpark - which would you rather have? The full jersey intact, or the little logo man thing?

I don’t get it.
Durant game worn: $11,340
https://auctions.nba.com/kevin-durant---brooklyn-nets---game-worn-association/isynmv1/aucd/3671314?sid=1101461&auctionId=3671314

Curry: $21,020
https://auctions.nba.com/stephen-curry---golden-state-warriors---game-worn-association/isynmv1/aucd/3145439?sid=1101461&auctionId=3145439

Giannis: $45,120
https://auctions.nba.com/giannis-antetokounmpo---milwaukee-bucks---game-worn/isynmv1/aucd/3693074?sid=1101461&auctionId=3693074

That’s 77k worth of game worn jerseys to get 3 logo men.

I think DoTB’s insight is profound - it is gambling. The cost of the briefcase is 15-20k. I'm guessing the cost of a slot in the break is a fraction of the cost of the briefcase. So betting 1k to get 3 logos while rich isn't crazy if that's your thing.

And if you have guys like Drake chasing these cards when he could certainly buy the jerseys above it adds fame to these cards because they are rare.
 
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ElcaballitoMVP

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Durant game worn: $11,340
https://auctions.nba.com/kevin-durant---brooklyn-nets---game-worn-association/isynmv1/aucd/3671314?sid=1101461&auctionId=3671314

Curry: $21,020
https://auctions.nba.com/stephen-curry---golden-state-warriors---game-worn-association/isynmv1/aucd/3145439?sid=1101461&auctionId=3145439

Giannis: $45,120
https://auctions.nba.com/giannis-antetokounmpo---milwaukee-bucks---game-worn/isynmv1/aucd/3693074?sid=1101461&auctionId=3693074

That’s 77k worth of game worn jerseys to get 3 logo men.

I think DoTB’s insight is profound - it is gambling. The cost of the briefcase is 15-20k. I'm guessing the cost of a slot in the break is a fraction of the cost of the briefcase. So betting 1k to get 3 logos while rich isn't crazy if that's your thing.

And if you have guys like Drake chasing these cards when he could certainly buy the jerseys above it adds fame to these cards because they are rare.
Drake can probably get game worn, signed jerseys from these guys for free just by going to the games and talking with the players. He can't do that with the cards. For him, it's play money, so he's just having some fun. For the rest of us, though? Yeah, it's just gambling and you're more than likely going to take a big fat L.
 

Traut

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Drake can probably get game worn, signed jerseys from these guys for free just by going to the games and talking with the players. He can't do that with the cards. For him, it's play money, so he's just having some fun. For the rest of us, though? Yeah, it's just gambling and you're more than likely going to take a big fat L.
My point on Drake is exactly why the value is so high. He can have all 3 of their jerseys. He may not be able to get his hands on a Triple Logoman.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Just let me make sure I understand this. That card is worth $250k+. Okay. It has the NBA logo from game-worn jerseys and autographs from Curry, Giannis and Durant.

How much would it cost to buy a full autographed game-worn jersey for Curry, Giannis and Durant? $5k each seems very generous on that front but I don’t really know. But let’s say that’s in the ballpark - which would you rather have? The full jersey intact, or the little logo man thing?

I don’t get it.
The big difference is that there are an almost unlimited number of autographed game worn jerseys and folks will probably have the ability to buy one any time they want if they have the money.

There is only 1 triple logoman with the logo from game worn jerseys of Curry/Durant/Giannis on one card. Would I pay 250k or whatever for a card like that, even if I had the money, nope, but folks would probably think I'm crazy for some of the things I spend a lot of money on too (ie. golf, etc.). Collectors collect, and pay huge money for rarity. Is there a reason a painting should sell for tens of millions, other than the fact that someone is willing to pay it? IMO, nope. Or a first edition book, or a rare coin or stamp?

Logomans are the holy grail of basketball cards. They only appear on 1/1's. Same with the MLB logoman, the NFL shield, etc. in those sports. The rookie Luka Doncic logoman auto 1/1 just sold for 1.1 million.

It's gambling though, if you aren't planning to keep these cards, and are buying cases buying into breaks to hit one.
 

Oil Can Dan

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I get the gambling part when it comes to ripping boxes. You have the opportunity to pull some amazing $250k card. Good luck with that, but I totally get it.

What I don't get the person on the other side buying that card for $250k though. Sure, it's a 1/1. But it's manufactured scarcity. You say there's only a limited amount of logomen cards but an almost unlimited number of autographed game-used jerseys but that's contradictory to an extent because every one of those unlimited jerseys has (at least) one logoman patch on it. So there could be an almost unlimited number of logomen cards too then, if the manufactures wanted there to be. I get that they don't and that they maintain scarcity so that the mania continues but it all seems like a bunch of BS to me.

Then when it comes down to the whole 1/1 thing I have to wonder how many 'unique' 1/1's are there? I was poking around on auction sites over the weekend and I saw some amazing 1/1 from like 2007 or something that had James, Jordan, Kobe & Bird auto's and I thought, wow that's an amazing one of a kind card. But then I saw some 2009 card that had James, Jordan and Kobe. So, no Bird but still kinda the same thing. I have not looked to see how many issues there are like this but it seems like there are quite a few, no?

And then there's the non-auto "1/1" cards that have like 40 different varieties all within the same release. How are those actually rare? Or the 1/1 auto's that also have the same exact card but x/5, x/10, x/25, x/50, x/100.

I get the gambling on boxes & packs, and I get the whole New New Thing aspect of this, but I just have to wonder where these cards are going to fall in 5/10/20 years from now. Is the market for these individual cards going to grow or drop between now and then?

I don't mean to be a turn in the punchbowl here because I have loved card collecting since I was 10 years old in 1981 and I'm having fun getting a little bit back in to it. It's just very strange to me that someone would spend $250k+ on one of these 1/1 not-very-unique cards when they could have so much more, including the entire actual jerseys of the guys, for way less.
 

Traut

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I get the gambling part when it comes to ripping boxes. You have the opportunity to pull some amazing $250k card. Good luck with that, but I totally get it.

What I don't get the person on the other side buying that card for $250k though. Sure, it's a 1/1. But it's manufactured scarcity. You say there's only a limited amount of logomen cards but an almost unlimited number of autographed game-used jerseys but that's contradictory to an extent because every one of those unlimited jerseys has (at least) one logoman patch on it. So there could be an almost unlimited number of logomen cards too then, if the manufactures wanted there to be. I get that they don't and that they maintain scarcity so that the mania continues but it all seems like a bunch of BS to me.

Then when it comes down to the whole 1/1 thing I have to wonder how many 'unique' 1/1's are there? I was poking around on auction sites over the weekend and I saw some amazing 1/1 from like 2007 or something that had James, Jordan, Kobe & Bird auto's and I thought, wow that's an amazing one of a kind card. But then I saw some 2009 card that had James, Jordan and Kobe. So, no Bird but still kinda the same thing. I have not looked to see how many issues there are like this but it seems like there are quite a few, no?

And then there's the non-auto "1/1" cards that have like 40 different varieties all within the same release. How are those actually rare? Or the 1/1 auto's that also have the same exact card but x/5, x/10, x/25, x/50, x/100.

I get the gambling on boxes & packs, and I get the whole New New Thing aspect of this, but I just have to wonder where these cards are going to fall in 5/10/20 years from now. Is the market for these individual cards going to grow or drop between now and then?

I don't mean to be a turn in the punchbowl here because I have loved card collecting since I was 10 years old in 1981 and I'm having fun getting a little bit back in to it. It's just very strange to me that someone would spend $250k+ on one of these 1/1 not-very-unique cards when they could have so much more, including the entire actual jerseys of the guys, for way less.
I saw Alex Ohanian the founder of Reddit speak at a conference last fall. He touched on NFTs and he said and NFT is like paper. Most paper is worth nothing and some is worth very little. And then there is the Declaration of Independence and the Mona Lisa - both of which are on paper and are worth lots.

These cards are no different. Maybe a triple logo man goes for a 100 million - 20 years from now. Or maybe it goes for $20. It is probably more on the investment end of the spectrum as opposed to gambling - but the concepts are the same.

There are people in this world with gobs of money willing to take reasonable risks on getting some good return. Drake makes 70 million a year. If he dropped a million on this triple logo man he will be fine one way or another.

It is very reasonable to think that at least some of these cards are going to be worth 10x in 10 years. Which ones? Anyone's guess.
 
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Deathofthebambino

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I get the gambling part when it comes to ripping boxes. You have the opportunity to pull some amazing $250k card. Good luck with that, but I totally get it.

What I don't get the person on the other side buying that card for $250k though. Sure, it's a 1/1. But it's manufactured scarcity. You say there's only a limited amount of logomen cards but an almost unlimited number of autographed game-used jerseys but that's contradictory to an extent because every one of those unlimited jerseys has (at least) one logoman patch on it. So there could be an almost unlimited number of logomen cards too then, if the manufactures wanted there to be. I get that they don't and that they maintain scarcity so that the mania continues but it all seems like a bunch of BS to me.

Then when it comes down to the whole 1/1 thing I have to wonder how many 'unique' 1/1's are there? I was poking around on auction sites over the weekend and I saw some amazing 1/1 from like 2007 or something that had James, Jordan, Kobe & Bird auto's and I thought, wow that's an amazing one of a kind card. But then I saw some 2009 card that had James, Jordan and Kobe. So, no Bird but still kinda the same thing. I have not looked to see how many issues there are like this but it seems like there are quite a few, no?

And then there's the non-auto "1/1" cards that have like 40 different varieties all within the same release. How are those actually rare? Or the 1/1 auto's that also have the same exact card but x/5, x/10, x/25, x/50, x/100.

I get the gambling on boxes & packs, and I get the whole New New Thing aspect of this, but I just have to wonder where these cards are going to fall in 5/10/20 years from now. Is the market for these individual cards going to grow or drop between now and then?

I don't mean to be a turn in the punchbowl here because I have loved card collecting since I was 10 years old in 1981 and I'm having fun getting a little bit back in to it. It's just very strange to me that someone would spend $250k+ on one of these 1/1 not-very-unique cards when they could have so much more, including the entire actual jerseys of the guys, for way less.
I don't have the bandwidth to get into the 1/1 explanation right now, but I will definitely. You are right, there are a LOT of 1/1's. New products are released by Panini/Topps/Bowman/Upper Deck every week, and they all have 1/1's for each card variation. However, not every 1/1 is created equal. The 1/1 Burrow RPA from Panini XR is worth nickels and dimes compared to the 1/1 RPA from National Treasures. There are holy grails and then there are the rest.

As for what's going to retain value, it's a weird concept. How many people had 86/87 Fleer Michael Jordan's at one time? 10 years ago, those cards were worth peanuts. But how many people kept those cards in mint condition (or even had one that was ever mint with centering) and how many of us that grew up around that time thought we could get a half million for a PSA 10? On the flip side, the PSA 10 of Tom Brady's rookie cards are going for 15-20k.

The folks spending this kind of money are not investors or gamblers. They are collectors. With a ton of money. They are the kind of people that buy a Van Gogh for 50 million. Do they care if markets turn around and the Van Gogh is only worth 30 million? No, because they aren't selling them, they are hanging on a wall or in a museum. It's the same with these cards. If Luka continues his career trajectory, the guy that spent 1.1 million will likely come out ahead if he sells it xxx number of years from now, but if Luka doesn't progress, will that guy be upset that he spent 1.1 million or is he happy to have it in his collection until he dies?

Speculators/investors are buying the raw/ungraded Brady's and Jordan's and going through the process of spending the time/money to get them graded. To give an example, I had the rookie Ben Simmons from National Treasures right after it's released. I had #11/99. There were no autos of Ben Simmons (still aren't, because he's exclusive with Upper Deck), so those were the holy grail rookies that year. I sold that card for $2,000.00 (this is before the market went insane) ungraded. About 6 months later, that card hit the market after being graded a gem mint 10, and the guy quadrupled his money.

However, you'll start to see cards in almost call cases start to diminish 10 years or so after a player retires, especially if those players sign a lot, like a Mutombo or Grant Hill. But guys like Brady/Shaq, etc or Kobe (who can't sign anymore) are still hugely expensive. Anyway, that's all I got right now, but I got a lot more, need to go back to watching the C's embarrass another team.
 

Ale Xander

killed off Vin Scully
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
50,426
How much does it cost right now to get a Brady RC graded, how long is the current turnaround, and can I trust that I'll get my own Brady back and not someone else's (the non-numbered ones) from PSA/BGC? (say I just want to send in one card, not 100 or whatever)
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
37,323
How much does it cost right now to get a Brady RC graded, how long is the current turnaround, and can I trust that I'll get my own Brady back and not someone else's (the non-numbered ones) from PSA/BGC? (say I just want to send in one card, not 100 or whatever)
If you're a new client, new account, and just sending in one card, you could be looking at months, but you can pay for expedited service too. If you use PSA or Beckett, I wouldn't worry too much about getting your card back, this is what these companies do, and if they were playing games like that, it would be literally everywhere and their reputation would go to shit.

As for pricing, first you have to come up with a "declared value" of the card, explained below:

https://www.psacard.com/resources/faq#104

Once you have that, you have to determine how quick your turnaround is going to be:

https://www.psacard.com/pricing

If you think you have a PSA 10 Brady, you're looking at about $600-$1,000 to get it graded in most cases. You place the value based on what you think it'll grade for, etc.

A lot of card shops and breakers have services where they send them in for grading for you. Any card I've had graded, I've sent through my local card shop guys.
 

Ale Xander

killed off Vin Scully
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
50,426
Thanks a bunch. Don't really trust any shop enough. (Mainly since I almost never buy there and have been in one maybe 3 times total in 5 years). Sounds like a chicken/egg problem. I don't think I have a 10. And certainly don't expect to get one back. Just looking at a fair price to get hopefully a 9 back and slabbed.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
37,323
Thanks a bunch. Don't really trust any shop enough. (Mainly since I almost never buy there and have been in one maybe 3 times total in 5 years). Sounds like a chicken/egg problem. I don't think I have a 10. And certainly don't expect to get one back. Just looking at a fair price to get hopefully a 9 back and slabbed.
A PSA 9 2001 Tom Brady Bowman Chrome is going to be worth $5,000-$7,500. If that's the rookie card you're talking about.

Generally, whatever you think you're going to get it graded for, I would assume it would come in a grade less. 99.999999% of the population couldn't tell the differences between an 8 and a 10. Everyone looks at corners, but centering, surface, edges are all just as important. They are using magnifying glasses to grade these cards.

If I was hoping for a 9, I'd put a declared value of $3,000.00 on it and send it in, which is about the value of an 8.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
47,691
A PSA 9 2001 Tom Brady Bowman Chrome is going to be worth $5,000-$7,500. If that's the rookie card you're talking about.
I've been involved (peripherally) in some ebay auctions for the Brady 2000 Skybox RC. PSA 9 ones are going for $500+ so "affordable" but I haven't pulled the trigger yet.

What I'm trying to do though is the following:

For Sox, Bruins, Celtics, Patriots I'm trying to locate 5 cards from my favorite players on the first teams that I remember following when I grew up--so late 70s/early 80s, then 5 cards of my favorite players on those teams regardless of year--Pedro, Papi, Williams, etc. They don't have to be expensive cards, but I want nice looking ones. I have display cases that showcase 20 cards, so 2 teams per case.

Then I will have a 3rd case with my favorite players NOT on my teams--I recently bought a 64 Topps Koufax, a 69 Topps Brooks Robinson, I already had the Upper Deck Griffey rookie, etc.

Eventually, after building each of these I want to transition over to finding rookie cards of each player, which is obviously going to be a little more difficult. Probably won't happen for guys like Bobby Orr and Ted Williams but we'll see what happens.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
37,323
To give an idea of how 1/1's can vary, take a look at these cards (I chose Wander Franco because he was a lot of conversation previously here).

This is his superfractor auto 1/1 from 2019 Bowman Sterling. It recently sold for $35,200.00 and was graded as a PSA 9:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/265465542449?hash=item3dcefab731:g:a~oAAOSwmUZg4mPy&nma=true&si=3fQD%2FVLeYkpFFZE9mS9PW%2BsUjqg%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

This is from 2021 Immaculate Baseball (an expensive product in it's own right), with a sweet jersey patch and an auto, also a 1/1. Sold for $2,025.00:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/304334723441?hash=item46dbc35971:g:z6cAAOSwFPFh8ZJ5&nma=true&si=3fQD%2FVLeYkpFFZE9mS9PW%2BsUjqg%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

The big difference between Topps/Bowman and Panini is licensing. That Immaculate card does not say Rays anywhere on it, and the jersey is blank. The patch is legit, but the big time collectors want the licensed stuff.
 

cournoyer

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 11, 2012
476
Enfield, Connecticut
Newbie question... so I have thousands of cards that I collected as a kid. 90's football, hockey cards from the 60's/70's/80's/90's/ early 2000's. Tons of 80's/90's baseball cards. They've all been opened, although most of them are in plastic sleeves. What would be my best bet to go about in selling them? Sift through for all rookie cards? I know I have Pedro's rookie card. It's an overwhelming process to go through each one but maybe my best bet is to sell these individually? See what I have for complete sets? Or just pass them on to my future kids?
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
47,691
Donate the commons from 90s early 2000s to charity, unless you want a complete set: Baseball Cards – Donate Cards

The older ones definitely look through and see what's what. If you find something interesting take a look on ebay and see if there's value there.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
37,323
Newbie question... so I have thousands of cards that I collected as a kid. 90's football, hockey cards from the 60's/70's/80's/90's/ early 2000's. Tons of 80's/90's baseball cards. They've all been opened, although most of them are in plastic sleeves. What would be my best bet to go about in selling them? Sift through for all rookie cards? I know I have Pedro's rookie card. It's an overwhelming process to go through each one but maybe my best bet is to sell these individually? See what I have for complete sets? Or just pass them on to my future kids?
As I've said to a bunch of folks via email recently, anything from the 1970's and upwards, with the exception of rookie cards and other notable cards (like Nolan Ryan first 4-5 years, etc.) are basically going to be worthless unless they grade perfectly, but they would cost too much to grade in most cases anyway). Even stuff like an 1983 Boggs Rookie is worth very little unless it's graded and grades high. A Mint 9 Boggs gets around $125 at last check, an ungraded one maybe $10. To get a Mint 9 isn't like getting hit by lightning, but it's pretty close.

Here's an article on dumping commons/ungraded cards:

https://www.cardboardconnection.com/what-to-do-with-sports-card-commons

DJ's company he posted is a good place to donate, and I know folks that have also used https://commons4kids.org/

If folks are local in the Boston area, I'm always happy to rip through folks collections and give them my thoughts (no charge, I just love doing it). Thousands of cards doesn't even faze me and I can tell you the name of the player on most cards from 1975-1995 just by looking at the picture, so I get through them very quickly.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
47,691
And while it's not worth a lot, the Mosi Tatupu rookie I just got is freaking awesome.