Sox sign Rusney Castillo to 7-year/$72.5M deal (2014-2020)

[RedOctober3829]

Is Castillo going to be expected to, pending passing his physical tomorrow, step in and play right away?

 

[Infield Infidel]

By right away, I mean the start of next season. Late August is a pretty weird time to sign a player. I think most folks would give him a pass for the rest of this year, since he hasn't really played since 2012. 
 
But coming out of spring training, yes I think the expectation is that he'd be a starter. 
 
Any word if he'll play in a fall/winter league?

 

[Plympton91]

Is Castillo going to be expected to, pending passing his physical tomorrow, step in and play right away?

I have to believe he's at least going to go on the Stephen Drew 10-day spring training program at Portland and Pawtucket.

 

[seantoo]

Wouldn't it still be prudent to keep Betts at Pawtucket as a 2B? I know Pedroia is under contract to/through 2021, but it would be great to have Betts in the wings, especially if Dustin's health/ability takes a dive. Not to mention, Betts has shown the ability to play OF and will only be 22 in October. Kid has time, no?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCjnRw5r2TQ

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

You think JBJ is starting? I'd guess the question is whether he is even on the 25 not if he starts.

I don't think he starts, but I'm pretty sure he stays, given that his trade value is probably at an all-time low. I think JBJ is the fourth OF, with Cespedes, Castillo, Victorino left to right, Holt as supersub, and Allen Craig maybe getting a few days in LF. I was merely trying to point out that Craig is more complementary with JBJ than Carp would have been, since JBJ is by far the hitter on the roster most likely to be pinch-hit for, given the reluctance to pinch hit for a catcher. As it is, there's definitely some sort of a logjam in the OF, especially since Holt and Betts seem likely to get the bulk of their playing time there. This assumes WMB or X is at 3rd.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

The Masslive article posted above states that he's added 20 pounds of muscle since defecting. It's possible that he will flash more power in the states than Cuba.

So we should expect a PED suspension in the coming years/months?

I ask this half joking.

Edit: oooops just caught up with thread didnt meant to pile on.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I wouldn't really put Linares, or even Iglesias in the category of Puig, Abreu, Cespedes, or now Castillo. Linares wasn't on a big money deal, his signing bonus was a whopping $750,000. 
 
At $10m/yr, Castillo is going to be expected to perform right away

 
We'll set aside the guys who defected really young (Iglesias and Puig) and the guy who was Cuba's Barry Bonds (Abreu).  But why wouldn't you put Castillo in the category of Linares and Cespedes?
 
All three are solidly-built Cuban CFs who defected relatively late after enjoying excellent results in their early 20's playing Cuban baseball.
 
Based on their age 22-24 stats from Cuba, the best hitter of the three is under .300 OBP for the second year running now that pitchers know the book on him; the next-best hitter never made it past AAA; the worst (and oldest to sign) of the three just inked a deal for 7yrs/$72MM.
 
I really hope he works out, I just don't see what part of his game Mookie couldn't do at 85% or better.  The amount of money being thrown around relative to the risks and roster issues it's going to create just reminds me an awful lot of the Carl Crawford signing.

 

[Laser Show]

So we should expect a PED suspension in the coming years/months?

I ask this half joking.

WEEI and the Sports Hub are already all over this, don't worry

 

[fineyoungarm]

Can we stop with the Stanton crap? They now have 7 outfielders vying for major league jobs. The actions of this front office are not the actions of a front office planning on acquiring Stanton this winter.

If this is a joke, it's played out at this point. Let it die.

Check.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

"So-and-so added X pounds of muscle in the offseason" is a line the media has been throwing out for decades and it's almost always bullshit (or greatly exaggerated).

You have a short memory. We have old Bonds and McGwire threads here where many many posters gave the ole "if there isn't anecdotal evidence to support your accusation what you say is nothing but wild insane speculation."

It's just that guys like Nomar and some others used better masking agents than others.

 

[snowmanny]

Felger just made a good point: he added 20 pounds of muscle in between seasons.

If I'm a Cuban refugee, not being subjected to testing, and looking to maximize my contract for teams in a few showcases/workouts.....pass me the needle.

I'm sure the Sox realize this is a possibility, but the concern remains that he feels the need to continue using.

Mike Felger just said you made a good point, and that your good posting brings up the question of whether you are on steroids.

 

[dcmissle]

"So-and-so added X pounds of muscle in the offseason" is a line the media has been throwing out for decades and it's almost always bullshit (or greatly exaggerated).

Except when Yaz did it and astonished people at ST 67.

Anyone can miss on a player, and obviously so can Ben.

What I do not worry about is "we have too many of x,y or z". The guy thinks several moves ahead. Just look at the deadline action -- like a chess player on a clock.

As someone noted, there will be trades. And people worried, with some justification, about "prospect" intoxication will be able to relax.

We've got 2 top rotation spots to full, and that is being kind to Clay insofar as the third spot is concerned.

 

[foulkehampshire]

It's just that guys like Nomar and some others used better masking agents than others.

 
I still don't believe Nomar used. No evidence at outside of that weird-perspective SI Cover we keep referencing.  

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

 
We'll set aside the guys who defected really young (Iglesias and Puig) and the guy who was Cuba's Barry Bonds (Abreu).  But why wouldn't you put Castillo in the category of Linares and Cespedes?
 
All three are solidly-built Cuban CFs who defected relatively late after enjoying excellent results in their early 20's playing Cuban baseball.
 
Based on their age 22-24 stats from Cuba, the best hitter of the three is under .300 OBP for the second year running now that pitchers know the book on him; the next-best hitter never made it past AAA; the worst (and oldest to sign) of the three just inked a deal for 7yrs/$72MM.
 
I really hope he works out, I just don't see what part of his game Mookie couldn't do at 85% or better.  The amount of money being thrown around relative to the risks and roster issues it's going to create just reminds me an awful lot of the Carl Crawford signing.

 
The way Castillo differentiates himself from Cespedes/Linares is that he's apparently much quicker and therefore a better defender. Cespedes is a slugger with a cannon arm, but who can only really play the corners. Linares obviously is not the same caliber of player as those two.
 
I agree that Betts would seem to replicate Castilo's skillset, but unlike with the Crawford situation, neither Betts nor Castillo seems set to solely limit themselves to LF. With Victorino only signed until the end of 2015 and his health obviously a concern, there's a decent chance you could see both Castillo and Betts in the outfield in 2015 and/or beyond, in some combination of CF and RF, where Fenway's dimensions enhance rather than limit their defensive potential. There's no problem with having two similar players, as long as both of them are good. 

 

[geoduck no quahog]

I don't think he starts, but I'm pretty sure he stays, given that his trade value is probably at an all-time low. I think JBJ is the fourth OF, with Cespedes, Castillo, Victorino left to right, Holt as supersub, and Allen Craig maybe getting a few days in LF. I was merely trying to point out that Craig is more complementary with JBJ than Carp would have been, since JBJ is by far the hitter on the roster most likely to be pinch-hit for, given the reluctance to pinch hit for a catcher. As it is, there's definitely some sort of a logjam in the OF, especially since Holt and Betts seem likely to get the bulk of their playing time there. This assumes WMB or X is at 3rd.

 
Well, there's certainly a debate because no one knows if Victorino will ever be himself again, or if Craig will be able to play the outfield.
 
Craig can play left or right...preferably left
Cespedes, the same...preferably right, although he may really not want to make that change at this point (he can also back up CF in an emergency)
Victorino: right (or CF backup)
Castillo: any outfield position, preferably center
Nava: Depth for when Victorino and/or Craig get hurt
JBJ: Defensive depth (if needed for Craig, because no one's pinch hitting for these guys...maybe pinch running for Craig)
Betts: Traded. Or kept in Pawtucket for call-up if the worst case scenario has both Craig and Victorino unable to play
 
Isn't JBJ the odd man out? As said, he's got little trade value - so 2015 he's in Pawtucket. They'll trade Betts for the right package.

 

[67WasBest]

Ah, who knows?  You can't have a enough Cubans. Smoke 'em if you got 'em.

My ex wife is not Cuban

 

[dbn]

I heard someone say that he hasn't played regularly since 2012...is this correct ??

 
Relax. When was the last time the Red Sox signed a FA that hadn't played in three years and it didn't work out?

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

 
The way Castillo differentiates himself from Cespedes/Linares is that he's apparently much quicker and therefore a better defender. Cespedes is a slugger with a cannon arm, but who can only really play the corners. Linares obviously is not the same caliber of player as those two.
 
I agree that Betts would seem to replicate Castilo's skillset, but unlike with the Crawford situation, neither Betts nor Castillo seems set to solely limit themselves to LF. With Victorino only signed until the end of 2015 and his health obviously a concern, there's a decent chance you could see both Castillo and Betts in the outfield in 2015 and/or beyond, in some combination of CF and RF, where Fenway's dimensions enhance rather than limit their defensive potential. There's no problem with having two similar players, as long as both of them are good. 

 
How is that obvious?  As hitters, it's not at all obvious in their comparative stats, although Cespedes edges the other two in slugging; we have no idea how good Castillo will be at translating his raw speed into efficient defense or good baserunning.
 
As I said from the beginning: this is a scout signing, not a stat signing.  And that means Baird, whose judgment I don't trust.
 
As for having two similar players not being a problem, yeah...except the Sox don't just have 2 similar players.  They now have 7 RHH outfielders on their 40-man roster.  Again I'll say, something's gotta give.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I agree with your assessment of an apparent adoption of the A's / Rays / Cardinals approach, I just don't see why their budget requires that to be the case. It seems to me like they could have a "core budget" of around $105-115 million, wherein they apply the A's, Rays, and Cardinals approach to build 95 percent of the organization from the major league roster to minor league free agents, to the amateur draft and the international signings. Given their track record, it seems to me that would generate the level of success enjoyed by the A's and Cards. But then on top of that they should be able to afford a superstar budget of around $70-80 million to retain people like Lester, Ortiz, and Ellsbury. That would fit the model of spending up to but not over the luxury tax threshold. Those numbers are just illustrative, too; you could move $10-$20 million between those two categories without defeating the overall point.

It may well that the Sox are willing to build using your model; however the "star player" money is going to go to in-house extensions rather than FA signings. In other words, let's see what happens when X, Betts, RDLR, etc. have to be re-upped. The As would have jettisoned most of those players. Perhaps the Red Sox will keep them and build around them.

I think people are forgetting that it's becoming much more difficult to find "advantages" that teams can leverage to build winners. As DeJesus Build My Hotrod pointed out earlier, more teams have money; talent is reaching the FA market later and later; the draft pools are equalizing out the effect of money; and almost every team is tapping into statistics one way or another. Being smarter can help, but really - are the top front offices really any smarter than the others?

It's a very interesting time to be a baseball fan.

 

[Galway Sox Fan]

I really think that the problem that we had this year is that we have bee lacking a spark at the front end of the lineup. While I don't necessarily believe that we should of signed Ellsbury at the money/years he got I believe that we have not replaced him.
 
He got on base and stole a lot of bases last season. It got on the pitchers mind and the next batters benefited from it. If Castillo can be a threat on the base baths then I I am all for this signing. Decent money and in a way addressing a massive problem that the offense has had this year. If Mookie can also pose a problem for pitchers on the base paths next year with the power of Cepcedes Naps Ortiz and Craig I feel that we will see a much more explosive offensive team next season. Sign Lester and trade for a number 2 and we will be golden!

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I don't know as I'd say, "none worth a damn." We're starting to approach the standard minimum sample of 30 at this point, aren't we. 20 at least? That's better than nothing.

 
FWIW, Davenport Translation pegs Rusney Castillo's most recent .946 OPS season in Cuba as .237/.276/.390 9HR in MLB.
 
So there you go.  Is that better than nothing?  I'm not sure.

 

[Infield Infidel]

 
We'll set aside the guys who defected really young (Iglesias and Puig) and the guy who was Cuba's Barry Bonds (Abreu).  But why wouldn't you put Castillo in the category of Linares and Cespedes?
 
All three are solidly-built Cuban CFs who defected relatively late after enjoying excellent results in their early 20's playing Cuban baseball.
 
Based on their age 22-24 stats from Cuba, the best hitter of the three is under .300 OBP for the second year running now that pitchers know the book on him; the next-best hitter never made it past AAA; the worst (and oldest to sign) of the three just inked a deal for 7yrs/$72MM.
 
I really hope he works out, I just don't see what part of his game Mookie couldn't do at 85% or better.  The amount of money being thrown around relative to the risks and roster issues it's going to create just reminds me an awful lot of the Carl Crawford signing.

 
I was mainly differentiating them based on the expections that come with their contract size. Linares signed a relatively small contract compared to Puig ($42m), Cespedes ($36m), Abreu ($68), and Castillo (72m). I'm guessing that that means they wanted Linares but knew he wouldn't be an MLB player right away. 
 
For Castillo, if you hand a guy $72m, you expect him on the opening day roster, or an early season call up at worst.

 

[Plympton91]

As for having two similar players not being a problem, yeah...except the Sox don't just have 2 similar players.  They now have 7 RHH outfielders on their 40-man roster.  Again I'll say, something's gotta give.

2 of those outfielders have serious injuries and may be finished as productive major leaguers. 2 others have minor league options. A fifth is only under team control for 1 season.

I don't see the glut that others do.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

I like this move. For all we know Vic could retire next year because his body is just breaking down. If they go and get Tomas to stash in AAA as well I'll love this move. Castillo, Cespedes, Craig, Betts, JBJ, Nava is an insane amount of depth right now. Some of those guys will probably be trade bait in the off season. The three C's playing at an above average level would help the offense tremendously.

 

[snowmanny]

 
FWIW, Davenport Translation pegs Rusney Castillo's most recent .946 OPS season in Cuba
as .237/.276/.390 9HR in MLB.
 
So there you go.  Is that better than nothing?  I'm not sure.

For reference they had Jose Abreu at
.321/.446/ .660.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

2 of those outfielders have serious injuries and may be finished as productive major leaguers. 2 others have minor league options. A fifth is only under team control for 1 season.

I don't see the glut that others do.

 
That's because you're not yet factoring in the other three OFs who don't bat RH.
 
The Sox are currently set to dedicate 10 roster spots -- 25% of their 40-man -- to the outfield ahead of November's Rule 5 Draft.
 
Several of them can play/backup infield positions, too...so that should help the crunch somewhat.  But the Sox have already traded away or DFA'd most of the players who were set to come off the books at the end of the season.
 
What's being gained in OF "deep depth" now promises to be subtracted from the bullpen later.

 

[EricFeczko]

It may well that the Sox are willing to build using your model; however the "star player" money is going to go to in-house extensions rather than FA signings. In other words, let's see what happens when X, Betts, RDLR, etc. have to be re-upped. The As would have jettisoned most of those players. Perhaps the Red Sox will keep them and build around them.

I think people are forgetting that it's becoming much more difficult to find "advantages" that teams can leverage to build winners. As DeJesus Build My Hotrod pointed out earlier, more teams have money; talent is reaching the FA market later and later; the draft pools are equalizing out the effect of money; and almost every team is tapping into statistics one way or another. Being smarter can help, but really - are the top front offices really any smarter than the others?

It's a very interesting time to be a baseball fan.

I couldn't agree more. This line of thinking also explains why we signed Castillo for 72$/6+ years. In our current environment, the Cuban market is one remaining advantage. At ~10mil AAV, he would need to be a 1.5 fWAR player, essentially an average CF, to beat the current free market rate.
 

 
FWIW, Davenport Translation pegs Rusney Castillo's most recent .946 OPS season in Cuba as .237/.276/.390 9HR in MLB.
 
So there you go.  Is that better than nothing?  I'm not sure.

 
Still nothing. One could point out that Davenport projected Abreu to have a line of .364/.481/.792 for an OPS of 1.273 in 2011; he's hitting 0.303/0.361/0.594 for an OPS of 1.055 this year. Davenport also had Puig's 2011 as the MLB equivalent of 0.259/0.339/0.440. Since 2011, Puig hasn't hit below 0.309/0.391/.509 in a single year. 
Clay may have the best system for interpreting Cuban data, but the data remain borderline useless.

 

 

[maxotaur]

So Craig is the new Carp?

If so a much, much better version. Not even close.

 

[EricFeczko]

 
That's because you're not yet factoring in the other three OFs who don't bat RH.
 
The Sox are currently set to dedicate 10 roster spots -- 25% of their 40-man -- to the outfield ahead of November's Rule 5 Draft.
 
Several of them can play/backup infield positions, too...so that should help the crunch somewhat.  But the Sox have already traded away or DFA'd most of the players who were set to come off the books at the end of the season.
 
What's being gained in OF "deep depth" now promises to be subtracted from the bullpen later.

Huh?
Here are the guys who can play outfield currently on the 40 man, excluding Castillo for now (since he needs to be added):
 
Betts -- can also play every infield position. So doesn't count. He's also 22 next year.
JBJ -- either a 4th OF or send him down to AAA. His defense is angelic, but he was the third worst hitter (60 wRC+) out of 180 with at least 350 PAs.
Brentz -- AAAA OF depth
Cespedes -- everyday RF, 2-3 win/season player.
Holt -- can also play every infield position. So doesn't count. Also in a great position to sell high.
Craig -- Based on what DRS has said several times, and based on seeing Craig before and after the Lisfranc injury, I don't think Craig should even play in the outfield regularly.
Hassan -- AAAA OF depth
Nava -- Enigmatic, but probably average 1-2 win/season outfielder. Better if used against RHP.
Victorino -- If healthy, a 3 win RF, but we will have to see if he's the same player post-surgery.
 
Out of the nine outfielders currently on the 40 man, six may not be outfielders in the majors. Two are essentially filler (Brentz/Hassan), two can play any position on the diamond except catcher and pitcher (we think),  one will likely be unable to play regularly in the outfield anymore, and the sixth we have no clue if he'll be effective next year. Of the three that are likely to be at least average outfielders, one has been streaky this year and has huge, albeit favorable, platoon splits, and the other is one of the worst hitters in the majors; they are only average because their present performance has large peaks and valleys.

To me, Castillo is far less of a question mark as an outfielder than at least six of the others currently on the 40 man; the bottom of the totem pole is brentz/Hassan, which isn't missing much.

In any case, 36 of the spots on the 40 man would go to pitchers, outfielders, and infielders. Assuming half of those go to the pitchers, that leaves 9 spots for the infield and 9 for the outfield, with brock holt and Mookie Betts being able to play in any of those spots. Going with 8 outfielders (seven of whom have question marks) and 2 hybrid fielders in the 40 man through November 5th isn't crazy.
I just don't see the crunch you are talking about.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Either way, the timing is great in that they can save $2M a year against the luxury line by spreading it across "seven" years and not the six it really is.

 
This is really some NFL salary cap level thinking by the FO, whatever else one might say about the deal.
 
It actually starts to make more sense of the Drew deal, which I've found a bit puzzling.  Basically, they took that $4 million savings and found a way to spread it (along with the additional $6 million or so room they have left under the tax cap) and spread it out to future years.  

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

And people worried, with some justification, about "prospect" intoxication will be able to relax.

Rusney is a prospect, albeit an unusual one. So I'm not sure how counting on him to be a major contributor constitutes a lessening of prospect intoxication.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

So we're now comparing him to Juan Carlos Linares? It's funny because if the Yankees signed him posters would be pointing to the scouting reports of Brett Gardner with Power or the Andrew McCutchen one that Stark pointed out today. How the Red Sox never spend for Cuban imports etc...

But since he came to Boston he's an overpaid 5th outfielder. Makes perfect sense. Let's see how he hits in the majors before calling him a bust.

 

[MakMan44]

It actually starts to make more sense of the Drew deal, which I've found a bit puzzling.  Basically, they took that $4 million savings and found a way to spread it (along with the additional $6 million or so room they have left under the tax cap) and spread it out to future years.  

That's a good point. I had forgotten about those savings. 

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Huh?
 
Out of the nine outfielders currently on the 40 man, six may not be outfielders in the majors. 

 
Castillo is sad you're not counting him, even in his own thread.  Doesn't make sense. Plus, I specifically mentioned that various different players' versatility should help alleviate the roster pressure.
 
Assuming Herrera and Lavarnway are simply DFA'd, the only other positional players departing the organization are Johnson and Ross.  Johnson's no loss, but the Sox will certainly need a MLB-capable backup catcher and may simply re-sign Ross on the cheap.  The risk of Ross petrifying during a game is mitigated by Swihart already having reached AAA.

1. Ortiz
2. Vazquez
3. Napoli
4. Pedroia
5. Middlebrooks
6. Bogaerts
7. Cespedes
8. Castillo
9. Craig
10. Victorino
11. Holt
12. Nava
13. Backup C - Ross?
14. AAA - Swihart
15. AAA - Shaw
16. AAA - Coyle
17. AAA - Cecchini
18. AAA - Brentz
19. AAA - Bradley
20. AAA - Betts
21. AAA - Butler
22. AAA - Hassan

That puts the Sox at 22 positional players already.  Breslow and Badenhop should be gone in free agency, but it's highly likely the Sox will either extend Uehara a QO or sign him quickly to a 2-year deal.

1. Buchholz
2. Kelly
3. De La Rosa
4. Webster
5. Workman
6. Closer - Uehara?
7. Tazawa
8. Mujica
9. Hembree
10. Layne
11. Britton
12. AAA - Ranaudo
13. AAA - Wright
14. AAA - Barnes
15. AAA - Escobar
16. AAA - Rodriguez
17. AAA - Wilson
18. AAA - Ramirez/Celestino/Diaz/Couch/Verdugo/Hernandez/Kurcz/etc.

So there we are, at 40 already. One might suggest a DFA for both Britton and Hassan too, but even then the Sox will still be exposing a half-dozen arms or so from their AA/AAA stockpile to the Rule 5 draft.  Unlike many years past, the Sox have packed the upper minors with young guys rather than retreads and mlFA.
 
And that's what I meant when I suggested the bullpen's "deep depth" would suffer from the current glut of OF.

 

[Plympton91]

They're going to make a 3 or 4 to 1 trade for a top of the rotation starter, probably involving at least an outfielder and a pitcher if not 2 of one of them. They're still probably wheeling and dealing now, they could trade Nava, cespedes, or Holt tomorrow for all we know.

This is a case where "The Plan" is blindingly obvious. Castillo gives them the depth to trade Bradley or Betts, depending on the haul coming back.

Also, they've got a lot of certainty in the bullpen if they bring people back, plus the ability to convert the starting prospects to relief.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

So we're now comparing him to Juan Carlos Linares? It's funny because if the Yankees signed him posters would be pointing to the scouting reports of Brett Gardner with Power or the Andrew McCutchen one that Stark pointed out today. How the Red Sox never spend for Cuban imports etc...

But since he came to Boston he's an overpaid 5th outfielder. Makes perfect sense. Let's see how he hits in the majors before calling him a bust.

2004, 2007, and 2013 notwithstanding, we do tend to be a pessimistic lot.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

So we're now comparing him to Juan Carlos Linares? It's funny because if the Yankees signed him posters would be pointing to the scouting reports of Brett Gardner with Power or the Andrew McCutchen one that Stark pointed out today. How the Red Sox never spend for Cuban imports etc...

But since he came to Boston he's an overpaid 5th outfielder. Makes perfect sense. Let's see how he hits in the majors before calling him a bust.

 
No one's calling him an overpaid 5th outfielder or a bust.  But what some folks -- me included -- are saying is that there's a hell of a lot of potential downside risk to signing a 27 year old prospect for over $70MM.
 
Hopefully the scouts have nailed this one and Castillo averages 2-3 WAR per year of his contract (or better!).  That's the potential upside risk, which is nice.
 
But the sad fact is that his closest statistical comp from Cuba was a guy the Sox scouted and signed, but who never cracked the MLB roster.  

 

[jimbobim]

 
FWIW, Davenport Translation pegs Rusney Castillo's most recent .946 OPS season in Cuba as .237/.276/.390 9HR in MLB.
 
So there you go.  Is that better than nothing?  I'm not sure.

I really hope he works out, I just don't see what part of his game Mookie couldn't do at 85% or better.  The amount of money being thrown around relative to the risks and roster issues it's going to create just reminds me an awful lot of the Carl Crawford signing.
 
I mean I appreciate being skeptical because the FO sometimes acts as if they're operating with some secret knowledge but it seems like your putting a concerted effort into comparing a guy who basically no ones seen to two complete failures in Crawford and Linares.  
 
It's a little over 10 mill a year. Its pretty much half the albatross of CC so its kind of ridiculous to compare the two. Also Victorino, Craig, JBJ and Mookie to a lesser extent are all question marks next year. It also further guarantees more moves will be in the future which is necessary given the condition of the SP. 
 
Given the shit sandwhich that has  been this season I'm going to choose to take a glass half full approach. I saw on one of the beat writers twitters his nickname in Cuba was the Panther.  Let the 2/3 Cuban OF Era begin.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 
I still don't believe Nomar used. No evidence at outside of that weird-perspective SI Cover we keep referencing.  

Precisely my point. No evidence whatsoever aside from him going from a stringbean to a jacked up, acne'd up cover boy in 5 months followed by a tendon injury. I also recall the Bonds thread very well.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

 
No one's calling him an overpaid 5th outfielder or a bust.  But what some folks -- me included -- are saying is that there's a hell of a lot of potential downside risk to signing a 27 year old prospect for over $70MM.
 
Hopefully the scouts have nailed this one and Castillo averages 2-3 WAR per year of his contract (or better!).  That's the potential upside risk, which is nice.
 
But the sad fact is that his closest statistical comp from Cuba was a guy the Sox scouted and signed, but who never cracked the MLB roster.  

 
What is the "hell of a lot" of potential downside risk?  ~$10mm per year is their downside.  There is nothing else.  If you mean to suggest that the ~$10mm per annum might be the difference between the Sox winning another World Series or them not making the post season over the course of the contract (because I would define that as a "hell of a lot of risk") then I think the Sox have much bigger issues.  Or am I missing something?  What is the cost here besides money - unless you think the contract will prevent other players from developing - and again the contract is reasonable enough for the Sox to eat if this guy turns out to be a bust.
 
This is absolutely the sort of risk the Sox can and should take.  

 

[mauidano]

This is absolutely the sort of risk the Sox can and should take.  

Exactly.  In the larger picture, it isn't that much money spread out over the 7 years.  It's a great investment opportunity.  $10 AAV is really going to look like a pretty good steal in a few years.

 

[twibnotes]

I don't see this move portending a Betts trade. We saw the value of having two center fielders in Fenway last year, and JBJ and Victorino (not to mention Craig and Nava) are big question marks (in different ways).

 

[moondog80]

 

I really hope he works out, I just don't see what part of his game Mookie couldn't do at 85% or better.  The amount of money being thrown around relative to the risks and roster issues it's going to create just reminds me an awful lot of the Carl Crawford signing.
 

 
The cost of talent isn't linear.  That extra 15% is what you pay for.

 

[TomRicardo]

This is far more balanced than OptimusPapis presentation of things. A lot of the guys who produced the championships in 2004 and 2007 were acquired by previous owners and many of the best scouts and assistant GMs and GM from those years are now working for other teams.

Castillo for more than the Yankees gave Gardner and half what they gave Ellsbury would be quite a statement of confidence in their scouts. Hopefully they'll get him.

One thing to consider in the value is the premium they place on defense and how much easier it is to project that than it is to project offense. If they think he's a 1 or 2 dWAR player then $12 million per season to play CF or RF in Fenway isn't that much of a gamble.

 
What players from 2007 were from the old ownership?
 
Manny, Youkilis, Varitek, Wakefield and ?

 

[Plympton91]

 
The cost of talent isn't linear.  That extra 15% is what you pay for.

I actually think Betts is probably better than Castillo. But, by 2016, they probably need both of them, because Cespedes, Napoli, and Victorino will be gone and Nava's arbitration number might be greater than his real worth. If there's an oversupply of outfielders, it's for only one season.

 

[Plympton91]

 
What players from 2007 were from the old ownership?
 
Manny, Youkilis, Varitek, Wakefield and ?

That's a pretty important group, don't you think?

 

[OttoC]

 

I really hope he works out, I just don't see what part of his game Mookie couldn't do at 85% or better....

 
85% of an .800 OPS is .680. If they had Betts playing and putting up a .680 OPS, everyone would be screaming, "Why didn't they sign Castillo?" So. what does Castillo have to hit to justify the seven year, $72M contract? Is league-average for his position enough or do you expect more from an overweight player who hasn't been on the field in over 12 months? I still view this as a panic move by the Red Sox front office, who didn't bother bidding on Cespedes, were amazed by Puig's performance, lost out on Abreu..."Oh, we can't let this get away."
 
Maybe I'll be surprised.

 

[Plympton91]

 
85% of an .800 OPS is .680. If they had Betts playing and putting up a .680 OPS, everyone would be screaming, "Why didn't they sign Castillo?" So. what does Castillo have to hit to justify the seven year, $72M contract? Is league-average for his position enough or do you expect more from an overweight player who hasn't been on the field in over 12 months? I still view this as a panic move by the Red Sox front office, who didn't bother bidding on Cespedes, were amazed by Puig's performance, lost out on Abreu..."Oh, we can't let this get away."
 
Maybe I'll be surprised.

I'd say he needs to be an above average defender in CF or Rightfield, an assessment they should be able to make based on watching him in workouts And he needs to be about 40 points better in OBP than that Davenport translation above, with 25 steals at a high rate. So good CF defense with a .260 / .330 / .390 line plus 25/31 in SBa. That's a huge upgrade from what JBJ looked like this year.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I actually think Betts is probably better than Castillo. But, by 2016, they probably need both of them, because Cespedes, Napoli, and Victorino will be gone and Nava's arbitration number might be greater than his real worth. If there's an oversupply of outfielders, it's for only one season.

How does anybody know how good either player will be? To make judgment on a player we've seen very little of and a player we've never seen is short-sighted. Lets let things play out.

 

[Bone Chips]

Felger just made a good point: he added 20 pounds of muscle in between seasons.

If I'm a Cuban refugee, not being subjected to testing, and looking to maximize my contract for teams in a few showcases/workouts.....pass me the needle.

I'm sure the Sox realize this is a possibility, but the concern remains that he feels the need to continue using.

You don't add 20 pounds of muscle in the offseason without juicing big-time. This alone would shy me away from the guy. Maybe this deal will work out, but right now I don't see a lot to like.