Sox acquire Wade Miley for De La Rosa, Webster, and minor leaguer

[Gash Prex]

I think we need to put into perspective that RDLR only has 1 more year of control than Miley and has yet to prove anything like Miley at the major league level.

And Webster and RDLR are starting to get the age where they are not really prospects anymore.

 

[4-6-3]

My guess is something like Rijo who is double blocked or Ramos.

It could be that the D-Backs wait until after the Rule 5 tomorrow to choose the player.

 

[LondonSox]

And for the record who gives a rats ass how cheap you got the players. Selling them for less than market value because you got them below market value is failing to benefit. It's not a justification or an excuse.

 

[twibnotes]

Webster and Rubby are two of the many young guys who never really turned a corner and demonstrated the ability to go out and produce consistently (ugh, that word...Joe Morgan). I know Boston is a big market and that some of those guys are bound to get moved, especially with a deep farm, but I hope the FO isn't losing its ability to be patient one year removed from a WS.

 

[jimbobim]

What.... The..... F@ck

Rdlr looked pretty Damn good and I had hopes he was a real arm, Webster is a decent bullpen arm at worst.

Rdlr is the best player in the trade for me. I need to go away and calm down and then try to talk myself into this. But this seems like a classic we fucked up so we are doing this move.

I just don't get the rush to get average starters. We have average starters. Rdlr (with upside) Owens, Kelly, all the kids. We need predictable plus pitchers.

 
We had/have "projectable" average starters that are not guarantees to get there . Need some innings that you can not worry about. 

 

[DJnVa]

I hate trading valuable guys to not fill a hole.

 
Well, yeah.
 
I mean, I'd quibble with the "valuable guys" part and the "not filling a hole" part though.

 

[RedOctober3829]

What.... The..... F@ck

Rdlr looked pretty Damn good and I had hopes he was a real arm, Webster is a decent bullpen arm at worst.

Rdlr is the best player in the trade for me. I need to go away and calm down and then try to talk myself into this. But this seems like a classic we fucked up so we are doing this move.

I just don't get the rush to get average starters. We have average starters. Rdlr (with upside) Owens, Kelly, all the kids. We need predictable plus pitchers.

How is RDLR the best player in the trade?  He's 26, pitched 174 career IP to a 4.34 career ERA.  Miley has near 200 IP in his 3 full seasons, is 28 years old, and has xFIPs in the low 3.00's in 2 of the 3 seasons.
 
You have no idea if RDLR, Owens, Raunado, etc. will pitch to league average.  Miley has done it.

 

[mloyko54]

This move also opens up another spot on the 40 man roster. Allowing them to sign two more pitchers without dropping anyone. 

 

[diehard24]

Have a shot, yes. But not much of a shot. There's also a decent chance that one or both top out as middle relievers.

I think there's a solid chance Miley turns into a middle reliever in the AL East.

 

[twibnotes]

We need someone from the Sons of Craig Counsel to give us the lowdown on Miley

 

[DJnVa]

I think there's a solid chance Miley turns into a middle reliever in the AL East.

 
That AL East is gone.

 

[semsox]

I'm not a huge fan of this deal, but from a probabilistic perspective I can understand it. I think both Webster and RDLR have the potential to be a better starter than Miley is, but I also feel that neither of them are likely to reach that potential. Even from a bullpen perspective, neither is as good a match as Ranaudo or Barnes would be for converting to that role, so I understand Cherington's preference of dealing them. That being said, this deal feels a bit high risk. The upside is Miley performs as a #3 and Webster/RDLR never amount to anything. The downside is if both of them put it together and make this seem very, very, very lopsided. 

 

[LuckyBen]

I think there's a solid chance Miley turns into a middle reliever in the AL East.

Seriously? This needs to die down, it is no longer 2004.  The AL East currently would be the worst division in the AL.  What would that make him in AL West?

 

[Plympton91]

Meh. Wade Miley is a number 5 starter in the American League. They traded quite a bit of potential upside for certainty at the bottom of the rotation, but they can afford to do that because they've got more prospects than they have 40 man roster spots. This is a decent deal if it is follow up by acquiring 2 pitchers who are significantly better than Miley, and thus make the team a favorite to win the American League East. If they are planning on Miley being a top 3 starter, and thus only acquiring one more pitcher significantly better than Miley, I move from meh to dislike.

 

[grimshaw]

Miley was also a 4.5 WAR player his rookie year.
The Red Sox had none of those in 2012, one of those (Lester 4.3) in 2013, and Lester in 2014.  Beckett had a 4.1 in 2011.
I like his potential if the Sox can help tweak his control a bit, and he's shown he can go 200 innings several years in a row.

 

[Lowrielicious]

Webster and Rubby are two of the many young guys who never really turned a corner and demonstrated the ability to go out and produce consistently (ugh, that word...Joe Morgan). I know Boston is a big market and that some of those guys are bound to get moved, especially with a deep farm, but I hope the FO isn't losing its ability to be patient one year removed from a WS.

 
With the amount of pitching prospects in the system (or that were in the system assuming this goes through), it wasn't so much lack of patience as lack of room.
 
Other than throwing a few starters into the bullpen there just wasn't room in the MLB or AAA club to play the number of guys they had that need innings at that level.

Edit to avoid double post:
 

Miley was also a 4.5 WAR player his rookie year.
The Red Sox had none of those in 2012, one of those (Lester 4.3) in 2013, and Lester in 2014. Beckett had a 4.1 in 2011.
I like his potential if the Sox can help tweak his control a bit, and he's shown he can go 200 innings several years in a row.

I agree there is definite potential here for Miley.
 
Keep his 2014 K rate (8.18) and get the walk rate down to 2012 levels (1.71) and he is a very nice pitcher. Vazquez framing behind the plate should help with that and hopefully Farrell can too.

 

[sackamano]

People are under rating Allen Webster. His ml numbers are a lot better than Miley's ever were.
 

 No they are not.
 
Please stop being an idiot.
 
Miley has been in the Majors for 4 years ... 3 decent seasons of big innings and has improved every season.

 

[Bellhorn]

RDLR should not have been trade bait, despite his inconsistent performance.

Why not?  Surely this makes his value more difficult to estimate, giving an advantage to the team who has the greatest familiarity with him.

 

[twibnotes]

 
With the amount of pitching prospects in the system (or that were in the system assuming this goes through), it wasn't so much lack of patience as lack of room.
 
Other than throwing a few starters into the bullpen there just wasn't room in the MLB or AAA club to play the number of guys they had that need innings at that level.

I think and hope you're right. Worth noting that Rubby is out of options, and Webster has one left.

 

[diehard24]

Seriously? This needs to die down, it is no longer 2004.  The AL East currently would be the worst division in the AL.  What would that make him in AL West?

 
Perhaps I should have simply stopped at American League. But yes, seriously. He gets hit a lot, doesn't appear to have particularly fine control, and his stuff is pedestrian.
Have to give the benefit of the doubt to the front office, but based on Miley's stuff and numbers, I just don't see how this guy can be anything better than a 5 on the staff of a competitive AL team. Given the amount of upside arms with major-league experience we have and available free agents, I don't understand why you'd give up any amount of equity for someone like that.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

If Miley is the 2nd best pitcher we acquire this offseason, I'm not really a fan. The trade in itself isn't horrible, but if the offseason leaves us with Hamels, Miley, Buchholz, Masterson, Kelly as the rotation I feel we're going into the season with at least 3 question marks.

 

[swingin val]

If Wade Miley is the Sox number 5 starter you all better be ecstatic as fuck because that is one hell of a rotation we would be throwing out there.

 

[sackamano]

The Sox don't have Hamels, Kennedy or Masterson.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Rosenthal just on MLBN.  Adamant that this deal will happen.  Adamant.

 

[twibnotes]

If Miley is the 2nd best pitcher we acquire this offseason, I'm not really a fan. The trade in itself isn't horrible, but if the offseason leaves us with Hamels, Miley, Buchholz, Masterson, Kennedy as the rotation I feel we're going into the season with at least 3 question marks.

Is Kennedy really a better option than Kelly? Seems odd that they would get Miley, Masterson and Kennedy.

 

[Cellar-Door]

There is some serious overrating of RDLR going on. He has 1 year more of control that Miley and he'd have to take a huge leap to be anywhere near Miley as a pitcher. Other than velocity what does he do as well as Miley?
Only way I see this not being a good deal is if you think Webster is going to put it all together as a starter since he has so many years of control left. Otherwise looks like a decent deal to me, you get a solid young lefty starter with peripherals that say he could be as high as a #2 starter.
He's probably a better pitcher than some of the other guys getting tossed around as well (Kennedy, Masterson etc.)

 

[gammoseditor]

Alex Speier with a really good point in the link below.  Brandon McCarthy had a terrible ERA with the Diamondbacks while his FIP/XFIP said he was a lot better.  After being traded to the Yankees his ERA was much better.  
 
 
 

The success of Brandon McCarthy after he was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Yankees last year gives theRed Sox some reason for optimism regarding the potential for Miley to adapt well to the AL East. McCarthy was 3-10 with a 5.01 ERA in 18 starts for Arizona, though with some indicators (such as a career-high strikeout rate) that suggested he was outperforming those numbers by a considerable distance. With New York, he was 7-5 with a 2.89 ERA in 14 starts, ratifying that outlook.

 
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/12/10/sources-red-sox-land-wade-miley-from-diamondbacks-for-rubby-de-la-rosa-allen-webster/#more-89884

 

[RedOctober3829]

Alex Speier with a really good point in the link below.  Brandon McCarthy had a terrible ERA with the Diamondbacks while his FIP/XFIP said he was a lot better.  After being traded to the Yankees his ERA was much better.  
 
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/12/10/sources-red-sox-land-wade-miley-from-diamondbacks-for-rubby-de-la-rosa-allen-webster/#more-89884

I've been saying that all day.  McCarthy pre and post trade is night and day.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Is Kennedy really a better option than Kelly? Seems odd that they would get Miley, Masterson and Kennedy.

Sorry, I meant Kelly not Kennedy. Edited.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I've been saying that all day.  McCarthy pre and post trade is night and day.

 
Different regime in place though, right?

 

[glennhoffmania]

Alex Speier with a really good point in the link below.  Brandon McCarthy had a terrible ERA with the Diamondbacks while his FIP/XFIP said he was a lot better.  After being traded to the Yankees his ERA was much better.  
 
 
 
 
 
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/12/10/sources-red-sox-land-wade-miley-from-diamondbacks-for-rubby-de-la-rosa-allen-webster/#more-89884

 
But that doesn't apply to Miley other than 2014.  Just because they both pitched for AZ doesn't mean the results will be the same.  I don't think Speier's point is at all valid.

 

[Rasputin]

 
Well, yeah.
 
I mean, I'd quibble with the "valuable guys" part and the "not filling a hole" part though.

How?

Webster and de la Rosa may not be super high ceiling prospects, but they were going to be at least decent bullpen arms and RDLR in particular looked like he was going to be a high leverage reliever.

We had holes at the top of the rotation. We still have the same holes. The bottom of the rotation is a little bit better in the short term.

 

[Sox and Rocks]

Seems like a solid deal, and the exact type of move we all knew the Sox had to make soon given the glut of young players bulging at the seems of the 40 man.  Surprised some are so opposed.  
 
Like others have pointed out, I like RDLR's live arm and don't like giving him up, but Miley is solid and a definite upgrade, even if RDLR has a higher ceiling.  
 
Also, a few others have mentioned that it is possible Miley is someone the Phillies want as part of a Hamels deal.  Using this logic, I think it is more likely that he is someone the Reds would want given that they have 3 pitchers who will be free agents next year.  Is a possible Miley/Cespedes to the Reds for Cueto or Latos deal possible?

 

[foulkehampshire]

He's a LHP, he's under control for 3 years, gets groundball outs, and saw an uptick in his K/9 last year, while keeping underlying peripherals in check. With a decent defense behind him and a change of park, there's good chance for him to put up 200 IP and solid-good ERA's (3.5-3.8ish). Those are basically Lackey-type (Lackey 2.0) numbers. Last time I checked, the Sox don't have that.
 
Miley is not a #5 pitcher. 

 

[Just a bit outside]

This is a good trade. Exactly what the Sox need to do. Miley is a quality starter who they picked up for 2 guys who will probably end up in the bullpen. 200 innings with a high groundball rate will work. If his HR% goes down he could be a 2. I think he is a solid #3.

 

[Jnai]

Here's the Wade Miley "scouting report" generated by ye olde website:
 

Basic description of 2014 pitches compared to other LHP:
His fourseam fastball generates a very high amount of groundballs compared to other pitchers' fourseamers and has slightly above average velo. His sinker generates more whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers' sinkers, has less armside run than typical, has little sinking action compared to a true sinker and has slightly above average velo. His slider is thrown extremely hard and generates a very high amount of groundballs compared to other pitchers' sliders. His change has a lot of backspin. His curve is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' curves, generates fewer whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers' curves, is slightly harder than usual and has primarily 12-6 movement.

 
Legit groundball generation on every pitch last year, hard slider which he used as his out-pitch.

 

[Rasputin]

He's a LHP, he's under control for 3 years, gets groundball outs, and saw an uptick in his K/9 last year, while keeping underlying peripherals in check. With a decent defense behind him and a change of park, there's good chance for him to put up 200 IP and solid-good ERA's (3.5-3.8ish). Those are basically Lackey-type (Lackey 2.0) numbers. Last time I checked, the Sox don't have that.
 
Miley is not a #5 pitcher. 

But he's not a #1 or #2 pitcher which means the net effect is to improve the bottom of the rotation. At best, the third, fourth and fifth spot get a little better. If we get anything but terrible Buchholz, it will be the fourth and fifth spot getting a little better.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Miley also throws down in the zone. That's the area that saw the largest expansion of called strikes last year. Assuming it's a permanent change in how umpires are calling strikes, Miley's increased K rate is here to stay. Coupled with Vazquez' elite framing skills, which we know the Red Sox have quantified, this guy is going to be good.

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=8779&position=P&ss=2011&se=2014&type=0&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit

 

[nvalvo]

What.... The..... F@ck

Rdlr looked pretty Damn good and I had hopes he was a real arm, Webster is a decent bullpen arm at worst.

Rdlr is the best player in the trade for me. I need to go away and calm down and then try to talk myself into this. But this seems like a classic we fucked up so we are doing this move.

I just don't get the rush to get average starters. We have average starters. Rdlr (with upside) Owens, Kelly, all the kids. We need predictable plus pitchers.

 
I generally love your posts, but I have to take issue with this. "Average starters" don't throw 200 IP/season. That has tremendous value to a staff, even if the quality of those innings is merely decent. 

 

[RedOctober3829]

But he's not a #1 or #2 pitcher which means the net effect is to improve the bottom of the rotation. At best, the third, fourth and fifth spot get a little better. If we get anything but terrible Buchholz, it will be the fourth and fifth spot getting a little better.

He wasn't acquired to be a #1 or #2.  If he was, then it's a mistake.  But, let's let the offseason play out before anybody starts irrationally freaking out.

 

[gammoseditor]

 
But that doesn't apply to Miley other than 2014.  Just because they both pitched for AZ doesn't mean the results will be the same.  I don't think Speier's point is at all valid.

 
The point is that the Diamondbacks home ballpark is the 2nd most hitter friendly park in baseball and the defense is terrible, and we already know FIP and xFIP are better predictors of performance than ERA and that Miley looks pretty good by xFIP and still good by FIP and that McCarthy is an example of a pitcher from the exact ballpark and defense that showed the same trend in FIP/xFIP looking better than results, and his results dramatically improved when moving to the AL East.  What part of that do you disagree with?  Your problem is we don't have 15 pitchers that have done the same exact thing?  

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Webster and Rubby are two of the many young guys who never really turned a corner and demonstrated the ability to go out and produce consistently (ugh, that word...Joe Morgan). I know Boston is a big market and that some of those guys are bound to get moved, especially with a deep farm, but I hope the FO isn't losing its ability to be patient one year removed from a WS.

 
Wait, seriously? You're talking about a guy with less than a full year's worth of ML innings and a guy with less than half a year's worth of innings. They haven't even reached the corner, never mind turning it.
 
Don't get me wrong, I don't hate this deal, though I wish they could have swapped Ranaudo or Workman in for one of the higher-upside guys they dealt. But talking as if these guys had their chance and blew it is absurd, especially in Webster's case. The expectations around here for instant success from rookies, especially rookie pitchers, are off the scale.

 

[JimD]

But he's not a #1 or #2 pitcher which means the net effect is to improve the bottom of the rotation. At best, the third, fourth and fifth spot get a little better. If we get anything but terrible Buchholz, it will be the fourth and fifth spot getting a little better.

So, Ben shouldn't make any pitching moves at all until he nets a true replacement for Lester?

 

[g0wave]

 
Also, a few others have mentioned that it is possible Miley is someone the Phillies want as part of a Hamels deal.  Using this logic, I think it is more likely that he is someone the Reds would want given that they have 3 pitchers who will be free agents next year.  Is a possible Miley/Cespedes to the Reds for Cueto or Latos deal possible?

 
I like this deal as well but I sure as heck hope this isn't a chip to flip for a single year of an upgraded pitcher's control.  I think the Sox front office likely values Miley more than many on this board; that seems to be reflected in the early analyst opinions.
 
Very solid pickup for the Sox and I am damn tired of the - this guy is a number "3" a number "5" or a whatever - I trust the evaluations the Sox use and I imagine Farrell's opinion is part of this process.  This guy is a solid lefty, who can eat innings, is under control for 3 more years, and is a very nice addition to the staff for a reasonable cost.
 
How many people would be complaining if RDLR doesn't put it together consistently this year, is out of ML options, and is stuck on the 25 or we lose him for nothing?  The Red Sox cannot afford to carry many players that fit that criteria.

 

[GilaMonster]

Here's the Wade Miley "scouting report" generated by ye olde website:
 
 
 
 
Legit groundball generation on every pitch last year, hard slider which he used as his out-pitch.

 
Basically a bad four-seamer, a nice sinker, average changeup, and above average slider.....He doesn't throw a curveball. I don't mind it, but I would like a slightly better changeup from a lefty.

 

[grimshaw]

Another thing people who hate the trade aren't taking into consideration is that 4 out of 5 of those guys in AAA (not counting Wright or Ranaudo even) could have overtaken either of Webster or De La Rosa during the season.  Owens and Rodriguez are an injury away and have much higher ceilings.  Barnes is right there.  Johnson is ready.  You either hang onto all of them and let some of them rot, or you move two unproven 26 year olds for what you can get.  These aren't the main chips teams are asking about, and the Sox are still loaded for a #2.
 
We have no clue who they're really chasing either.  Miley's name came up for the first time late this afternoon.

 

[RoDaddy]

He's a proven decent big league pitcher, and importantly, left handed.  This not only gives us at least one lefty in the rotation, but maybe (?) takes away some added pressure to overpay for Hamels in part because he's LHed.  It also removes two SPs from a very crowded SP candidate list, especially when you include almost ready guys like Barnes, Ranaudo (who had a great season in AAA and might be better than people think), Owens, ERod, and Johnson.  And that's moving Workman to the pen.

 

[foulkehampshire]

Unlikely that RDLR and Webster were factoring towards the Sox's long term plan anyways. This is why Ben has been stockpiling high-upside minor league pitchers. 

 

[benhogan]

Meh. Wade Miley is a number 5 starter in the American League. 

STEAMER projections has Miley as a top 50 starter, which would imply a #2/3 starter.
 
Go get Porcello for Cespedes.
 
Sign Shields and away we go... 

 

[Rasputin]

He wasn't acquired to be a #1 or #2.  If he was, then it's a mistake.  But, let's let the offseason play out before anybody starts irrationally freaking out.

 
I'm rationally critiquing the move, not freaking out.
 
The point wasn't that Miley is a crappy guy to get to be a top of the rotation guy, the point was that WE DID NOT FILL A HOLE. We did not have a need for a fifth starter. Back of the rotation depth is the one thing that this team has in fucking spades. Rubby de la Rosa, Allen Webster, Matt Barnes, Anthony Ranaudo, Brandon Workman, Henry Owens, Brian Johnson, Eduardo Rodriguez, Edwin Escobar. That's NINE guys who were candidates for the fifth starter spot at some point in 2015. There is no way these guys couldn't get 200 innings. There's almost no way none of these guys were going to be decen enough for a fifth starter.
 
We paid decent value for minimal improvement and that is something that should be criticized.