Sox acquire Eric Hosmer

j44thor

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I think with Hosmer we just have to think of him as a generic AAAA vet min type acquisition at this point since that is what he is for the Sox payroll. In that context he is better than Franchy thus perfectly adequate. He can hopefully catch the ball and not strike out 50% of the time. If that is the level of expectation he should be serviceable. With Hosmer the ceiling and floor are virtually identical but at least the floor isn't 50' below the basement like it is with Franchy at 1B.

Just pretend we called up "John Smith" from Woostah and he wears Hosmer's #.
 

cantor44

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I would suggest that regardless of what potential there might be in Franchy's bat he is clearly not a first baseman. The team also has a massive lack of outfielders so it isn't like Franchy needs to be in the 1B conversation to see if he can regain his form. So he shouldn't even be in the equation for 1B.

Dalbec has had a hell of a lot of rope already. It isn't hard to make an argument that Hosmer has as much potential of regaining his pre-SD form (better home park for his batted ball profile, better division and league for it as well). But that said if the club goes the rest of this season with Hosmer as the 1B and Dalbec getting ABs across a few spots to see if he can find it that seems like the most viable way to test each out to see what they have and make a decision for 2023 when the off-season starts. Neither of them cost effectively anything.


With Casas' injury, relatively young age and lack of high minors ABs there is already a lot in favor of not bringing him up at all this year. Add that the new CBA has a provision where teams net draft pick compensation for bringing players up to start the season instead of the old ~2 month delay to push a service year and I think we've got a pretty clear recipe here for the following:

Hosmer and Dalbec finish out 2022.

The "winner" of those two is back for 2023, the "loser" is a coin toss depending on what else the market can provide.

Casas is given every opportunity to win a roster spot out of ST as the future starter even if he's splitting time with Hosmer/Dalbec to start 2023, letting him go through the acclimation process to MLB pitching with a reliable time share partner on the roster and the potential of a draft pick if he finishes in award consideration (top 3 in RoY is the most likely).
Given Cassas' injury struggles, combined with the numbers he's putting up in Worcester, there's an argument he plays another year in AAA, joining the Red Sox in 2024. If he's ripping the cover off the ball in 2023, he can force his way up sooner. But so far his performance at the AAA level - when he's been able to play - has been underwhelming.
 

Sin Duda

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Given Cassas' injury struggles, combined with the numbers he's putting up in Worcester, there's an argument he plays another year in AAA, joining the Red Sox in 2024. If he's ripping the cover off the ball in 2023, he can force his way up sooner. But so far his performance at the AAA level - when he's been able to play - has been underwhelming.
Any reason you continually misspell the Casas name? Is there an inside joke or something? Or maybe you know someone named Cassas and your fingers insist on typing it that way.

Sincerely,

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Sox Puppet

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Any reason you continually misspell the Casas name? Is there an inside joke or something? Or maybe you know someone named Cassas and your fingers insist on typing it that way.
“Cassas” is clearly the love child of Triston Casas and Tony Fossas.
 

BravesField

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Given Cassas' injury struggles, combined with the numbers he's putting up in Worcester, there's an argument he plays another year in AAA, joining the Red Sox in 2024. If he's ripping the cover off the ball in 2023, he can force his way up sooner. But so far his performance at the AAA level - when he's been able to play - has been underwhelming.
What level of performance at AAA would be acceptable to you? He was out for 2 months.

22 year old, first year in AAA, and this is your critique? Would it make you feel better knowing he's hit .286 with 2 Jacks in the past 7 games? Sorry but your "underwhelming" comment just irked me.
 

Super Nomario

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What level of performance at AAA would be acceptable to you? He was out for 2 months.

22 year old, first year in AAA, and this is your critique? Would it make you feel better knowing he's hit .286 with 2 Jacks in the past 7 games? Sorry but your "underwhelming" comment just irked me.
He's hitting .237 in Worcester, I think "underwhelming" is fair. We were all hoping he'd be ready to contribute this year, but it looks like he's not.
 

Max Power

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Casas has always been more about projection than production. He put up a .877 OPS last year and is at .787 in AAA this year. Neither of those scream "can't miss prospect." He's going to have to start putting up the numbers people think he's capable of before he gets a chance in the big leagues.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Casas has always been more about projection than production. He put up a .877 OPS last year and is at .787 in AAA this year. Neither of those scream "can't miss prospect." He's going to have to start putting up the numbers people think he's capable of before he gets a chance in the big leagues.
He has all of 16 PA against younger pitchers this year, all those came in the FCL. He also is putting up numbers. Just like he put up big numbers last year. He needs to learn how to hit lefties, and he would probably be better off learning how to do that in the Majors than in AAA.


2022
.264/.359/.536 vs R. 22bb/29k in 167 PA
.216/.344/.275 vs L. 10bb/22k in 61 PA

2021
.298/.424/.540 vs R. 51bb/51k in 288 PA
.219/.289/.301 vs L. 6bb/20k in 83 PA

He'd go well with Bobby Dalbec. He's about as ready as he's going to get unless you want him to sit in AAA until he hits lefties. Which could be never.
 

Cesar Crespo

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He has some huge home/road splits too. What's odd is Worcester is supposed to be a band box.

At home: .233/.376/.338 in 165 PA, 31bb/40k
On road: .314/.408/.594 in 206 PA, 26bb/31k.

I wonder if Worcester is somehow bad for him?
 

Cesar Crespo

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That doesn't seem obvious to me. Why do you think he would be better off hitting lefties in MLB?
I probably worded it bad. If the only thing holding him back is his hitting vs lefties, you run the risk of stalling his development vs R by keeping him in AAA so he can face a lefty once every 4 games.

He's averaging less than a PA/G in AAA. I think he'd be better off learning how to hit lefties in the MLB because by the time he gets enough PA to do that, he'll be like 27 or 28. There just aren't enough PA to go around vs L to hold someone back.
 

pokey_reese

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Is the idea that he would face more lefty relievers in the majors, or that LHP in general is more rare in the minors?

The problem is that trying to get him experience against same-handed pitchers makes him a terrible platoon option in the majors, since he would be competing for PAs to do the thing he does poorly against the thing Dalbec does well, no?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Is the idea that he would face more lefty relievers in the majors, or that LHP in general is more rare in the minors?

The problem is that trying to get him experience against same-handed pitchers makes him a terrible platoon option in the majors, since he would be competing for PAs to do the thing he does poorly against the thing Dalbec does well, no?
The idea is no matter what he does, he won't get enough PA against L in one season to significantly improve vs L. So how long do you keep him in the minors? He went through the system quick. Skipped A+.

I'll have to check just how many career PA he has vs L to date.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Casas has 249 career PA amassed over mostly 3 seasons (2018 he had 1) vs L.
He has 855 career PA vs R.

How many career PA do you want to give him vs L before you call him up? Another 250? That'll be 3 years.
 

cantor44

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Any reason you continually misspell the Casas name? Is there an inside joke or something? Or maybe you know someone named Cassas and your fingers insist on typing it that way.

Sincerely,

View attachment 53909
Not an inside joke. I am dyslexic so can't spell for shit. But I should take more time to check, yes .... thanks for pointing it out so kindly, though, I know we're all busy and it's important that you took time out of your day to make that correction. It certainly was edifying for me, and I hope it made you feel great about yourself.
 

Sin Duda

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Not an inside joke. I am dyslexic so can't spell for shit. But I should take more time to check, yes .... thanks for pointing it out so kindly, though, I know we're all busy and it's important that you took time out of your day to make that correction. It certainly was edifying for me, and I hope it made you feel great about yourself.
I think you were being sincere in saying "so kindly". I believe I have a little undiagnosed dyslexia and my wife is a diagnosed case, so I've seen plenty of poor spelling. The way I combat it is to look at the word as though it is a silhouette of a city. Casas looks just right but Cassas looks too long once I've seen the word may times. YMMV.

[Fake edit] Oops, now that I've reread your comment I see that you are not being sincere. And not that you care about my reading enjoyment, but I trip over misspellings and lose the sentence when I see one. As irritating as it was for you to read my critique of your spelling, it is for me every time I read it misspelled. I can see I'm about to get an avalanche of CAssas, CasSas, CaSSas, Cassas ...so I'll shut up now and live with the irritation.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Those are players that are obvious upgrades over Dalbec but what is the obvious move to acquire said players? Who is the best prospect you are willing to trade in a deal for a 1b bat? Anyone better than Jay Groome? Is Jay Groome enough?
How much of Hosmer's contract would San Diego subsidize? He's owed $13 million for the next three years. He'd be a definite upgrade this year, could provide a flexible safety net for Casas (who I don't think is going to be ready to step in as a regular this year), would be cheap to acquire in terms of prospects, and the Sox might be able to get a prospect coming back depending on the dollars included. If/when Casas is ready next year, they could trade or even release Hosmer.
The possibility of Jay Groome for Hosmer came through.

I'm curious about the assumption that Hosmer has no upside. He's always had a high ground ball rate, but he put together good (not great) power numbers as recently as 2020 (granted, only 150ish plate appearances). Not sure what happened to those improved fly ball and line drive rates, but, based on the flyball overlay on Fenway posted earlier, I think Hosmer could put up good numbers over the next few months and, if the shift goes away, he could be an asset next year as well.

Semi-related, who predicted Rizzo, who is a few months older than Hosmer, would be putting up career power numbers this year (he has 27 dongs already with a career best of 32 for a year)? I think the move the Yankee Stadium is a big part of that story. While Hosmer won't approach those power numbers, I think the move to Fenway will make him more productive than he was in San Diego earlier this year.
 

chawson

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The possibility of Jay Groome for Hosmer came through.

I'm curious about the assumption that Hosmer has no upside. He's always had a high ground ball rate, but he put together good (not great) power numbers as recently as 2020 (granted, only 150ish plate appearances). Not sure what happened to those improved fly ball and line drive rates, but, based on the flyball overlay on Fenway posted earlier, I think Hosmer could put up good numbers over the next few months and, if the shift goes away, he could be an asset next year as well.

Semi-related, who predicted Rizzo, who is a few months older than Hosmer, would be putting up career power numbers this year (he has 27 dongs already with a career best of 32 for a year)? I think the move the Yankee Stadium is a big part of that story. While Hosmer won't approach those power numbers, I think the move to Fenway will make him more productive than he was in San Diego earlier this year.
To some degree, yes I think this should help.

Here’s a quick and dirty sketch. Since 2020 per Statcast, Hosmer has hit 17 fly balls to the opposite field that traveled at least 310 ft. but were recorded for outs, which is roughly two full seasons.

So if everything stays the same about his batted ball profile, let’s say the Monster would have changed those 17 outs to doubles or home runs — but only half of them to account for home games. Let’s add nine XBH — five doubles and four home runs — to his batting line over the last two years.

Actual batting line ‘20-22: .272/.336/.410
Monster-aided batting line: .281/.346/.437

Over that time, he’s only hit one home run to right field that traveled less than 380 ft. (the distance of Fenway’s right field fence, so possibly an out in Boston). Let’s just give it to him.

My pessimism about Hosmer is pretty much entirely tied to his ground ball rate. He was pretty resistant to criticism about it early in his career, but there’s evidence he changed his swing in 2020 to hit fewer ground balls. But maybe he changed back? If there’s anyone who could help restore some of the gains he had in 2020, it’s J.D. Martinez.
 

Archer1979

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The possibility of Jay Groome for Hosmer came through.

I'm curious about the assumption that Hosmer has no upside. He's always had a high ground ball rate, but he put together good (not great) power numbers as recently as 2020 (granted, only 150ish plate appearances). Not sure what happened to those improved fly ball and line drive rates, but, based on the flyball overlay on Fenway posted earlier, I think Hosmer could put up good numbers over the next few months and, if the shift goes away, he could be an asset next year as well.

Semi-related, who predicted Rizzo, who is a few months older than Hosmer, would be putting up career power numbers this year (he has 27 dongs already with a career best of 32 for a year)? I think the move the Yankee Stadium is a big part of that story. While Hosmer won't approach those power numbers, I think the move to Fenway will make him more productive than he was in San Diego earlier this year.
It really depends on why his offense and defense has fallen off a cliff from his KC days to his SD days. Some players, when they get the big pay day, press a little too much to earn their money. For those that have followed SD, is this a possibility with Hosmer? Or has he just gotten old overnight?

If so, there could be a chance that he reclaims some of his old form as the pressure is somewhat off (hoping that the Fenway crowd understands that he's getting paid the league minimum by the Sox).

If his numbers have fallen off just because he's lost a step or two, this may be a short marriage.
 

scottyno

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Well he's hit 2 fly balls in the last 2 days that were outs that I believe would have been home runs at Fenway. I know they said on NESN the one he hit yesterday was, and the one the day before was even further, though it may have ended up in the triangle at home.
 

chawson

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Well he's hit 2 fly balls in the last 2 days that were outs that I believe would have been home runs at Fenway. I know they said on NESN the one he hit yesterday was, and the one the day before was even further, though it may have ended up in the triangle at home.
Good point, yeah, and probably so. According to the delightful twitter feed Would It Dong?, Hosmer’s first Boston PA would have been a home run in 13/30 ballparks, and his flyout off Payamps last night would have been gone in 17/30.

Kansas City is a terrible place for power hitters.
 

scottyno

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BravesField

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Thanks, I didn't remember where exactly in center the first one went, that 412 one would have been long long gone at Fenway.
When the trade for Hosmer was discussed on the MLB Network, I think most of the panel was indifferent, but Tom Verducci said that with Hosmer's swing he was going to get a lot of hits off the wall in Fenway.