Sox acquire Eric Hosmer

pokey_reese

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Some hope for Hosmer (and take this with a shaker of salt): Career numbers in Fenway - 109 PA, .354/.404/.485, OPS+ 133.
San Diego is literally dead last for runs in terms of park effects this year, and has a .86 value for doubles specifically, while Boston is at 1.11 (indexed around 1.0), so combined with the overlay charts others have posted, I think there is some small reason for optimism around the bat here, at least.
 

chawson

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At least they now have a competent major league first baseman for the next few years with a legit track record for league minimum. That’s not nothing. In fact, that’s pretty solid.
Yep. Either way, the 1B position, one where you don’t really want to spend top dollar, is covered for the next three years for minimum wage. That cost certainty has value just like the options Bloom has now has value.
I'll stop banging this drum but what exactly do you mean by legit track record? “Covered” how? Should we assume that this 33-year-old who has been a bottom-third of first base production for the last half decade won’t further decline over the next three years?

Over the last five years combined, Hosmer (0.3 fWAR) has been worth half as much as Pablo Sandoval (0.6 fWAR) by FanGraphs’ measures.

I’m trying to talk myself into it and think the trade is a good one given the cost and circumstances. League minimum is league minimum, the prospect swap works and I can get aboard with Hosmer’s positive clubhouse effect. But playing him is another story. Factoring opportunity cost, I’m genuinely not sure this is better than playing Dalbec, and I am pretty much done with Dalbec. A K is one out — Hosmer, his catcher-caliber sprint speed and his league-leading ground ball rate will hit into a ridiculous number of double plays batting behind Bogaerts and JDM.
 

DJnVa

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I'll stop banging this drum but what exactly do you mean by legit track record? “Covered” how?
He's better than in-house options and costs the team so little they can easily move on if a better options appears.
 

Shaky Walton

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I know Hosmer may not turn out to be all that valuable and that, if so, he cost almost nothing so it's not a big thing if they choose to move on from him. My gut is they will get more from him than they would have from Dalbec and Franchy, but time will tell.

What interests me is why SD decided to essentially give him to the Sox. If we assume that the prospect swap was a wash or near a wash, given that SD is paying all but the league minimum, this was the closest thing to a gift that I can imagine.

If that is true, why the Sox? Why not some other team? Was this Larry Lucchinno doing his former club a solid? Or was no one else interested? Or was Chaim just the most aggressive and the Padres needed to act fast?

No matter what, kudos to Bloom for reeling in the freebie.
 

BaseballJones

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I'll stop banging this drum but what exactly do you mean by legit track record? “Covered” how? Should we assume that this 33-year-old who has been a bottom-third of first base production for the last half decade won’t further decline over the next three years?

Over the last five years combined, Hosmer (0.3 fWAR) has been worth half as much as Pablo Sandoval (0.6 fWAR) by FanGraphs’ measures.

I’m trying to talk myself into it and think the trade is a good one given the cost and circumstances. League minimum is league minimum, the prospect swap works and I can get aboard with Hosmer’s positive clubhouse effect. But playing him is another story. Factoring opportunity cost, I’m genuinely not sure this is better than playing Dalbec, and I am pretty much done with Dalbec. A K is one out — Hosmer, his catcher-caliber sprint speed and his league-leading ground ball rate will hit into a ridiculous number of double plays batting behind Bogaerts and JDM.
I guess that’s one way to look at it. The other way is to note that the past three seasons Hosmer has an ops+ of 111, which would represent a remarkable improvement over Dalbec and Franchy, on a league minimum contract that can be easily moved.
 

YTF

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I know Hosmer may not turn out to be all that valuable and that, if so, he cost almost nothing so it's not a big thing if they choose to move on from him. My gut is they will get more from him than they would have from Dalbec and Franchy, but time will tell.

What interests me is why SD decided to essentially give him to the Sox. If we assume that the prospect swap was a wash or near a wash, given that SD is paying all but the league minimum, this was the closest thing to a gift that I can imagine.

If that is true, why the Sox? Why not some other team? Was this Larry Lucchinno doing his former club a solid? Or was no one else interested? Or was Chaim just the most aggressive and the Padres needed to act fast?

No matter what, kudos to Bloom for reeling in the freebie.
Hosmer didn't want to go to Washington, San Diego needed to find a home for him. The clock was ticking and I think it was a matter of right place at the right time. The Sox had a decision to make with Groome in the near future and the Padres saw this as a fit. I'm not sure what Lucchinno may have to do with any of it.
 

joe dokes

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I know Hosmer may not turn out to be all that valuable and that, if so, he cost almost nothing so it's not a big thing if they choose to move on from him. My gut is they will get more from him than they would have from Dalbec and Franchy, but time will tell.

What interests me is why SD decided to essentially give him to the Sox. If we assume that the prospect swap was a wash or near a wash, given that SD is paying all but the league minimum, this was the closest thing to a gift that I can imagine.

If that is true, why the Sox? Why not some other team? Was this Larry Lucchinno doing his former club a solid? Or was no one else interested? Or was Chaim just the most aggressive and the Padres needed to act fast?

No matter what, kudos to Bloom for reeling in the freebie.
Preller's Pomerantz Payback?
 

BigJimEd

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I guess that’s one way to look at it. The other way is to note that the past three seasons Hosmer has an ops+ of 111, which would represent a remarkable improvement over Dalbec and Franchy, on a league minimum contract that can be easily moved.
Sure and that's why most have no issue with the trade. But that's completely different than saying they have 1B "covered" for the next three years. I certainly doubt that is their plan.
 

Jimbodandy

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"Why they heck would we want a guy who's an upgrade over the current options at zero cost?" is a weird take, but ok.

The rest of this trade is about Bloom not liking Groome (or K.C. having in irrational love for him).
 

RobertS975

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If Casas is deemed ready and proves to be the real thing at the MLB level in 2023, then Hosmer is easily tradeable at the deadline NEXT YEAR to fill an urgent need. He will be nearly free to the acquiring team as he is to the Sox.
 

BaseballJones

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Sure and that's why most have no issue with the trade. But that's completely different than saying they have 1B "covered" for the next three years. I certainly doubt that is their plan.
Well if Hosmer can produce a 111 ops+ at league minimum salary and play solid defense at 1b, then yeah, it's covered. Because that would be pretty darned helpful especially compared to what they've gotten this year.

What I hope happens is that Casas emerges as a legit middle of the order major league bat and forces Cora to play him every day at 1b in Boston. Then Hosmer either becomes a backup or trade fodder. It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for Hosmer to be a league minimum salaried (though he's actually getting paid a lot more in real dollars) 1b/DH backup, pinch hitter, or defensive replacement. A nice, world series winning, former all star veteran presence like that off the bench - wouldn't be worth $20m, but for $700k? Absolutely.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The rest of this trade is about Bloom not liking Groome (or K.C. having in irrational love for him).
Don't think it has to be either if SD was going to cut Hosmer anyway. SD needed pitching to put on the 40 and Groome was in danger of being cut because the Sox don't have enough roster spots. They acquired 2 prospects who don't need to be placed on the 40.

When I first saw they paid the whole thing, I thought "yeah they reallllllllly like Groome." I think they just really needed to get rid of Hosmer.
 

Jimbodandy

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Don't think it has to be either if SD was going to cut Hosmer anyway. SD needed pitching to put on the 40 and Groome was in danger of being cut because the Sox don't have enough roster spots. They acquired 2 prospects who don't need to be placed on the 40.

When I first saw they paid the whole thing, I thought "yeah they reallllllllly like Groome." I think they just really needed to get rid of Hosmer.
Yeah could be just a fair exchange of goods and services here.

Less above "loving Groome" and more about needing a guy who's closer to the bigs, while we wanted guys who are farther from the bigs (i.e. don't immediately require protection). Hosmer was a solid.
 
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jtn46

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I know Hosmer may not turn out to be all that valuable and that, if so, he cost almost nothing so it's not a big thing if they choose to move on from him. My gut is they will get more from him than they would have from Dalbec and Franchy, but time will tell.

What interests me is why SD decided to essentially give him to the Sox. If we assume that the prospect swap was a wash or near a wash, given that SD is paying all but the league minimum, this was the closest thing to a gift that I can imagine.

If that is true, why the Sox? Why not some other team? Was this Larry Lucchinno doing his former club a solid? Or was no one else interested?
They were going to DFA him because they acquired Bell in the Soto trade so Bloom made them a slightly better than DFA offer. Probably also a bit of a favor to him, as he goes to a team where he'll start at 1B.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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There was speculation in one of these threads that due to a change in how salaries are taxed, that dumping Hosmer would save the Padres several million? Granted, I have to imagine that the deadline really complicates things- deals go down to the wire and if you agree on one, suddenly you have to dump another guy to get a roster spot, but you are almost past the deadline and don’t have that many options.
 

lurker42

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Don't think it has to be either if SD was going to cut Hosmer anyway. SD needed pitching to put on the 40 and Groome was in danger of being cut because the Sox don't have enough roster spots. They acquired 2 prospects who don't need to be placed on the 40.

When I first saw they paid the whole thing, I thought "yeah they reallllllllly like Groome." I think they just really needed to get rid of Hosmer.
I live in San Diego, and I think a lot of people are going to be surprised by how bad Hosmer is now. I get the sense that most people don't watch a lot of west coast NL games and mostly remember the Hosmer from KC...he's really, really not that guy anymore.

He has a solid command of the strike zone and can do some damage on balls up in the zone, but if the pitcher can keep the ball low he'll just pound it into the ground (MLB leader in gb%) leading to a *lot* of non-competitive at-bats.

And he's an adventure defensively. He's the worst I've ever seen in terms of making decisions as to whether to play the ball or cover the bag, and his footwork is terrible. His gold glove under the old-style voting rules actually makes a little sense, as he makes a lot of routine plays look really difficult.

He's almost certainly going to be better than Dalbec and Cordero simply because of how bad those two have been, but it's worth remembering that from the Padres' perspective trading him with full retention is equivalent to releasing him. He's not a valuable asset the Sox acquired; he's a reclamation project who's probably closer to being Travis Shaw than he is to being the Hosmer from his AL days.
 

LogansDad

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I wouldn't be surprised if Hosmer gets some serious BABIP love next year if the shift ban gets put into place. A 58% GB rate is kind of death in the current environment, but could be more useful next year. That said, the studies I've seen haven't shown a huge difference in batting average on GB in the leagues they have put the ban in place, but a huge increase on average of line drives to shallow RF, which makes a lot of sense.

In any case, Hosmer is a huge upgrade on Franchy, a moderate upgrade on Dalbec, and good insurance for Casas not being ready. I am not convinced Casas is ready, nor do I think the organization thinks he is, which is absolutely okay, as he is 22 years old.

Ferguson and Rosier are the kind of guys who might see the same benefit from a shift ban, as well, so I am probably a little higher on them than some others. They also fill a hole in the organization of players with really, really good baserunning ability.

Overall, I really like this deal for the Sox, even if part of me could see Groome thriving in San Diego.
 

BigJimEd

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Well if Hosmer can produce a 111 ops+ at league minimum salary and play solid defense at 1b, then yeah, it's covered. Because that would be pretty darned helpful especially compared to what they've gotten this year.

What I hope happens is that Casas emerges as a legit middle of the order major league bat and forces Cora to play him every day at 1b in Boston. Then Hosmer either becomes a backup or trade fodder. It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for Hosmer to be a league minimum salaried (though he's actually getting paid a lot more in real dollars) 1b/DH backup, pinch hitter, or defensive replacement. A nice, world series winning, former all star veteran presence like that off the bench - wouldn't be worth $20m, but for $700k? Absolutely.
I'm not sure about defensive replacement but as a backup, sure he's fine. For the rest of this year, I'm more than happy for Hosmer to take most of the at bats. However, I don't think he is plan A and maybe not plan B for next year, never mind the next 3 years.
 

Jimbodandy

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I'm not sure about defensive replacement but as a backup, sure he's fine. For the rest of this year, I'm more than happy for Hosmer to take most of the at bats. However, I don't think he is plan A and maybe not plan B for next year, never mind the next 3 years.
Maybe Hosmer is this year's "bring someone else in so Bobby hits better" acquisition. Has anyone thought of that?
 

Rovin Romine

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I wouldn't be surprised if Hosmer gets some serious BABIP love next year if the shift ban gets put into place. A 58% GB rate is kind of death in the current environment, but could be more useful next year. That said, the studies I've seen haven't shown a huge difference in batting average on GB in the leagues they have put the ban in place, but a huge increase on average of line drives to shallow RF, which makes a lot of sense.

In any case, Hosmer is a huge upgrade on Franchy, a moderate upgrade on Dalbec, and good insurance for Casas not being ready. I am not convinced Casas is ready, nor do I think the organization thinks he is, which is absolutely okay, as he is 22 years old.

Ferguson and Rosier are the kind of guys who might see the same benefit from a shift ban, as well, so I am probably a little higher on them than some others. They also fill a hole in the organization of players with really, really good baserunning ability.

Overall, I really like this deal for the Sox, even if part of me could see Groome thriving in San Diego.
Yep. He's the perfect stopgap. If the nickname wasn't already taken by a Red Sox player of Yore. . .he would be "The Napkin."
 

jmanny24

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Curious, Spotrac lists Hosmer's 2023 luxury tax salary at $17,280,000. How much of that is applied to the Sox CBT number for next season?
Edit: nevermind I see the 720K on the roster list. I was looking at retained salary at the bottom
 

chawson

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"Why they heck would we want a guy who's an upgrade over the current options at zero cost?" is a weird take, but ok.

The rest of this trade is about Bloom not liking Groome (or K.C. having in irrational love for him).
Because the current options have upside that Hosmer does not. Simple as that. I get that people are soothed by the 112 wRC+ Hosmer put up in San Diego this year -- and the fact that there's no cost is great -- but his hitting profile and age leave no real hope for upside.

I've given up advocating for Franchy Cordero on this board, but he really did show a lot of promise the first two months of play this year. He put up a 115 wRC+ from May 1 through July 1. Of course, the wheels came off and he became unplayable the last month, going 11-for-81 with a 44% strikeout rate. Similarly, Dalbec had a 174 wRC+ over August and September, with reason for optimism to fuel 10,000 posts on this board. It's clear to me that both of these guys have a lot more upside than Hosmer. They absolutely have warts, but both have seemed like worthwhile projects. Don't get me wrong -- I've wished for better options. But Hosmer is not that better option.

All the talk of the "stability" that Hosmer supposedly gives us at first base ignores the fact that he's put up an 82 wRC+ since April 29. What that says to me is that he feasted a bit early in the season on pitchers who weren't properly stretched out after a short spring training. Since he pretty much only hits grounders, the fly ball drag didn't affect him as much as it did other hitters and he benefited from a .439 BABIP --- the highest April BABIP behind X. His line since April 29 is .237/.303/.341. (To be fair, his -2 outs above average is likely an improvement over Dalbec's -1 and Cordero's -5 in fewer innings).

I totally get that people are frustrated with Cordero and Dalbec. I am too. But I think they offer more offensive upside, and our frustration may be blinding us to Hosmer's downside.
 

Rovin Romine

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Because the current options have upside that Hosmer does not. Simple as that. I get that people are soothed by the 112 wRC+ Hosmer put up in San Diego this year -- and the fact that there's no cost is great -- but his hitting profile and age leave no real hope for upside.

I've given up advocating for Franchy Cordero on this board, but he really did show a lot of promise the first two months of play this year. He put up a 115 wRC+ from May 1 through July 1. Of course, the wheels came off and he became unplayable the last month, going 11-for-81 with a 44% strikeout rate. Similarly, Dalbec had a 174 wRC+ over August and September, with reason for optimism to fuel 10,000 posts on this board. It's clear to me that both of these guys have a lot more upside than Hosmer. They absolutely have warts, but both have seemed like worthwhile projects. Don't get me wrong -- I've wished for better options. But Hosmer is not that better option.

All the talk of the "stability" that Hosmer supposedly gives us at first base ignores the fact that he's put up an 82 wRC+ since April 29. What that says to me is that he feasted a bit early in the season on pitchers who weren't properly stretched out after a short spring training. Since he pretty much only hits grounders, the fly ball drag didn't affect him as much as it did other hitters and he benefited from a .439 BABIP --- the highest April BABIP behind X. His line since April 29 is .237/.303/.341. (To be fair, his -2 outs above average is likely an improvement over Dalbec's -1 and Cordero's -5 in fewer innings).

I totally get that people are frustrated with Cordero and Dalbec. I am too. But I think they offer more offensive upside, and our frustration may be blinding us to Hosmer's downside.
So what do you think the club should do?
 

Jimbodandy

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Because the current options have upside that Hosmer does not. Simple as that. I get that people are soothed by the 112 wRC+ Hosmer put up in San Diego this year -- and the fact that there's no cost is great -- but his hitting profile and age leave no real hope for upside.

I've given up advocating for Franchy Cordero on this board, but he really did show a lot of promise the first two months of play this year. He put up a 115 wRC+ from May 1 through July 1. Of course, the wheels came off and he became unplayable the last month, going 11-for-81 with a 44% strikeout rate. Similarly, Dalbec had a 174 wRC+ over August and September, with reason for optimism to fuel 10,000 posts on this board. It's clear to me that both of these guys have a lot more upside than Hosmer. They absolutely have warts, but both have seemed like worthwhile projects. Don't get me wrong -- I've wished for better options. But Hosmer is not that better option.

All the talk of the "stability" that Hosmer supposedly gives us at first base ignores the fact that he's put up an 82 wRC+ since April 29. What that says to me is that he feasted a bit early in the season on pitchers who weren't properly stretched out after a short spring training. Since he pretty much only hits grounders, the fly ball drag didn't affect him as much as it did other hitters and he benefited from a .439 BABIP --- the highest April BABIP behind X. His line since April 29 is .237/.303/.341. (To be fair, his -2 outs above average is likely an improvement over Dalbec's -1 and Cordero's -5 in fewer innings).

I totally get that people are frustrated with Cordero and Dalbec. I am too. But I think they offer more offensive upside, and our frustration may be blinding us to Hosmer's downside.
I don't know about upside anymore with either of those guys. If either could show any sustained hit tool, you can imagine one as a DH. But I was at the Cubs game when he treated the ball like the sworn enemy of his glove, and he just had another game where he committed two errors on one play. Guy makes Dr. Strangeglove look like Keith Hernandez.

I don't care how much Hosmer has fallen off, there are guys on this forum that play first better than Franchy.
 

chawson

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So what do you think the club should do?
It's a toughie! We're straddling a weird line at the moment, still going for it to some degree, so I think this keeps up some semblance of hope. I recognize that a league-minimum Hosmer for the next two months is likely better than not having one. And the good character stuff is something, judging from accounts from his fellow Padres.

But I'm pushing back on the idea that Hosmer is a sort of solution past this year, and don't like the idea of him taking a roster spot with as many prospects as we should add to the 40-man. Among MLB players, he's really a poster boy for the gap between the perception of aptitude vs. reality. The position still very much seems like a black hole. Hosmer is just likely to manage the strikeouts well enough to keep the hounds from howling as loud as they have been.

I wouldn't say I loved the idea of trading for Dominic Smith, but adding a 27-year-old first baseman blocked on his current team makes more sense depending on the cost. I also liked Luplow and Cooper as first base options, but Hosmer was surely cheaper. I think that if we're fully out of it, I might just keep playing Dalbec and Cordero and hope they figure something out. If they do, that helps. If they don't, we're out of it anyway -- why not get a better draft pick?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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It's a toughie! We're straddling a weird line at the moment, still going for it to some degree, so I think this keeps up some semblance of hope. I recognize that a league-minimum Hosmer for the next two months is likely better than not having one. And the good character stuff is something, judging from accounts from his fellow Padres.

But I'm pushing back on the idea that Hosmer is a sort of solution past this year, and don't like the idea of him taking a roster spot with as many prospects as we should add to the 40-man. Among MLB players, he's really a poster boy for the gap between the perception of aptitude vs. reality. The position still very much seems like a black hole. Hosmer is just likely to manage the strikeouts well enough to keep the hounds from howling as loud as they have been.

I wouldn't say I loved the idea of trading for Dominic Smith, but adding a 27-year-old first baseman blocked on his current team makes more sense depending on the cost. I also liked Luplow and Cooper as first base options, but Hosmer was surely cheaper. I think that if we're fully out of it, I might just keep playing Dalbec and Cordero and hope they figure something out. If they do, that helps. If they don't, we're out of it anyway -- why not get a better draft pick?
I was a big Dalbec apologist and still see good reasoning for going with him as Plan A, Casas as Plan B with Shaw as a worst case scenario. I’m over it now.
Last thing I’d like to see if for Dalbec to club 10Hr’s and for the whole idea that he could be a Sox starting 1B in ‘23 creep into anyones mind.
If he does do that…. Trade him ASAP!!!
He very well may become what we all hope but his time to do that with Boston should be over.
 

scottyno

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I was a big Dalbec apologist and still see good reasoning for going with him as Plan A, Casas as Plan B with Shaw as a worst case scenario. I’m over it now.
Last thing I’d like to see if for Dalbec to club 10Hr’s and for the whole idea that he could be a Sox starting 1B in ‘23 creep into anyones mind.
If he does do that…. Trade him ASAP!!!
He very well may become what we all hope but his time to do that with Boston should be over.
I don't think it's impossible that Dalbec is on the team in 2023. He has use as a backup against lefties and can also play 3rd, which is at least moderately useful, and as others have pointed out Hosmer and Casas together doesn't make a ton of sense since they're pretty much both 1b only lefties, and it's unlikely either would hit well enough to be a useful option at DH. He'll also still be making no money. But I can't see any scenario where they go into next year with him as the primary 1b when at worst they have Hosmer for the minimum.
 

EddieYost

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Casas throws right handed and played 3B a few times in the minors. Not that he could play there in the majors, but he does throw righty.
 

Jason Bae

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Moving from Petco to Fenway is usually a good thing, but how much is it really going to help a guy with a career 54.6% GB% (58.4% in 2022)? And it's not like he's seen a big dip in his BABIPs since going from KC (.316 from 2011-17) to SD (.310 from 2018-22).
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I have nothing against Hosmer or the idea of him, per se, but if the team is only quasi-contending, I think I’d rather give the at bats to Casas. Maybe he’s not ready, but it seems like so many young players struggle out of the gate anyways, why not get him some experience in a relatively low pressure environment? Maybe there’s a downside to calling a guy up before he’s ready but I don’t really see the upside with Hosmer and I don’t see how the two players fit on the same team going forward. Then again, maybe it’s worth it for a month and reevaluate based on the team situation.
 
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jon abbey

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I have nothing against Hosmer or the idea of him, per se, but if the team is only quasi-contending, I think I’d rather give the at bats to Casas. Maybe he’s not ready, but it seems like so many round players struggle out of the gate anyways, why not get him some experience in a relatively low pressure environment? Maybe there’s a downside to calling a guy up before he’s ready but I don’t really see the upside with Hosmer and I don’t see how the two players fit on the same team going forward. Then again, maybe it’s worth it for a month and reevaluate based on the team situation.
Do you mean ‘young’ instead of ‘round’? I genuinely don’t mean to pick on you but I implore people to proofread their posts better.
 

allmanbro

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I wouldn't be surprised if Hosmer gets some serious BABIP love next year if the shift ban gets put into place. A 58% GB rate is kind of death in the current environment, but could be more useful next year. That said, the studies I've seen haven't shown a huge difference in batting average on GB in the leagues they have put the ban in place, but a huge increase on average of line drives to shallow RF, which makes a lot of sense.
I think this is where you look for the "upside" in acquiring Hosmer. If he can rebound some with the park + shift ban, (and maybe a new coach, change of scenery, or whatever), and Casas is ready as the starter, then Hosmer could have trade value next June. If that works, then Hosmer gets you some longer term value indirectly. If not, he's a decent stopgap who might become a decent role player. And if not even that, be cut easily. In any case, I think it's very unlikely that he's the starter beyond May next year.

As with many moves Bloom makes, I don't think this was about having a specific plan. It was about creating potential opportunities to do different things down the road, while also heling the team now.
 

mauidano

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Hosmer is a Red Sox and in the lineup on Thursday in a place he was a star at. Gonna be a helluva emotional day for him. I’m pulling for him.
 

No Pepper

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401
What interests me is why SD decided to essentially give him to the Sox. If we assume that the prospect swap was a wash or near a wash, given that SD is paying all but the league minimum, this was the closest thing to a gift that I can imagine.
As mentioned elsewhere in the thread, it looks like SD recovers $5m (plus whatever the Red Sox are paying Hosmer) in cap space for each of the next three years just by trading him for nothing rather than releasing him:

A Minor CBA Change Could Create Contract Wrinkles
However, under the new CBA, a traded contract is recalculated to reflect the remaining actual dollars. That means contracts that are backloaded will be harder to trade (if the acquiring team is concerned about the luxury tax threshold).
Nothing if not prescient, as this article was posted in March:
With all that said: we should probably call this the Eric Hosmer rule.

(...)

Under these new rules, an acquiring team would be on the hook for $5 million less in tax hit if San Diego traded him after this season. If the Padres were willing to chip in some of the salary Hosmer is owed, his new club might incur a seven-figure tax charge, or roughly half what the Padres are on the hook for at the moment.
 

Drek717

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Dec 23, 2003
2,542
It's a toughie! We're straddling a weird line at the moment, still going for it to some degree, so I think this keeps up some semblance of hope. I recognize that a league-minimum Hosmer for the next two months is likely better than not having one. And the good character stuff is something, judging from accounts from his fellow Padres.

But I'm pushing back on the idea that Hosmer is a sort of solution past this year, and don't like the idea of him taking a roster spot with as many prospects as we should add to the 40-man. Among MLB players, he's really a poster boy for the gap between the perception of aptitude vs. reality. The position still very much seems like a black hole. Hosmer is just likely to manage the strikeouts well enough to keep the hounds from howling as loud as they have been.

I wouldn't say I loved the idea of trading for Dominic Smith, but adding a 27-year-old first baseman blocked on his current team makes more sense depending on the cost. I also liked Luplow and Cooper as first base options, but Hosmer was surely cheaper. I think that if we're fully out of it, I might just keep playing Dalbec and Cordero and hope they figure something out. If they do, that helps. If they don't, we're out of it anyway -- why not get a better draft pick?
I would suggest that regardless of what potential there might be in Franchy's bat he is clearly not a first baseman. The team also has a massive lack of outfielders so it isn't like Franchy needs to be in the 1B conversation to see if he can regain his form. So he shouldn't even be in the equation for 1B.

Dalbec has had a hell of a lot of rope already. It isn't hard to make an argument that Hosmer has as much potential of regaining his pre-SD form (better home park for his batted ball profile, better division and league for it as well). But that said if the club goes the rest of this season with Hosmer as the 1B and Dalbec getting ABs across a few spots to see if he can find it that seems like the most viable way to test each out to see what they have and make a decision for 2023 when the off-season starts. Neither of them cost effectively anything.

I have nothing against Hosmer or the idea of him, per se, but if the team is only quasi-contending, I think I’d rather give the at bats to Casas. Maybe he’s not ready, but it seems like so many young players struggle out of the gate anyways, why not get him some experience in a relatively low pressure environment? Maybe there’s a downside to calling a guy up before he’s ready but I don’t really see the upside with Hosmer and I don’t see how the two players fit on the same team going forward. Then again, maybe it’s worth it for a month and reevaluate based on the team situation.
With Casas' injury, relatively young age and lack of high minors ABs there is already a lot in favor of not bringing him up at all this year. Add that the new CBA has a provision where teams net draft pick compensation for bringing players up to start the season instead of the old ~2 month delay to push a service year and I think we've got a pretty clear recipe here for the following:

Hosmer and Dalbec finish out 2022.

The "winner" of those two is back for 2023, the "loser" is a coin toss depending on what else the market can provide.

Casas is given every opportunity to win a roster spot out of ST as the future starter even if he's splitting time with Hosmer/Dalbec to start 2023, letting him go through the acclimation process to MLB pitching with a reliable time share partner on the roster and the potential of a draft pick if he finishes in award consideration (top 3 in RoY is the most likely).
 
Jul 16, 2005
60
Hard to argue if Preller is picking up 100% of Hosmer's tab, we get a couple of lottery tickets and Groome was going to be DFA'd soon anyway. But make no mistake, we still have a black hole at first base and the defense may have worsened.
Replacing Franchy/Dalbec with Hosmer WORSENS the Sox' defense? Please explain
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
2,986
Replacing Franchy/Dalbec with Hosmer WORSENS the Sox' defense? Please explain
If you look at outs above average (OAA) since 2018, which covers his tenure in San Diego, Hosmer is dead last among first basemen with -25 OAA.

OAA is a cumulative stat, so the reason he’s so low is because he’s amassed about 4,850 innings there (relative to say, Luke Voit, who’s -21 OAA in 1,800 innings). And Hosmer has been less bad the last couple years, for whatever reason. We might look at him as one of the worst first baseman who nonetheless qualifies as a first baseman, which indeed may be an improvement over Dalbec and Cordero (a converted outfielder).
 

Rovin Romine

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Jul 14, 2005
17,782
Miami (oh, Miami!)
It's a toughie! We're straddling a weird line at the moment, still going for it to some degree, so I think this keeps up some semblance of hope. I recognize that a league-minimum Hosmer for the next two months is likely better than not having one. And the good character stuff is something, judging from accounts from his fellow Padres.

But I'm pushing back on the idea that Hosmer is a sort of solution past this year, and don't like the idea of him taking a roster spot with as many prospects as we should add to the 40-man. Among MLB players, he's really a poster boy for the gap between the perception of aptitude vs. reality. The position still very much seems like a black hole. Hosmer is just likely to manage the strikeouts well enough to keep the hounds from howling as loud as they have been.

I wouldn't say I loved the idea of trading for Dominic Smith, but adding a 27-year-old first baseman blocked on his current team makes more sense depending on the cost. I also liked Luplow and Cooper as first base options, but Hosmer was surely cheaper. I think that if we're fully out of it, I might just keep playing Dalbec and Cordero and hope they figure something out. If they do, that helps. If they don't, we're out of it anyway -- why not get a better draft pick?
Hmm. If they do fall out of it, I'd agree that the club should consider getting some exposure for players like Dalbec and Franchy. If nothing else, a mini-hot streak might make them more attractive in trade.

Frankly though, I'm gun-shy with both at this point. I mean, even if they have a hot streak, do you hold onto them in 2023? If so, in what projected role? (Dalbec has 2 options, and Cordero, 1.) Much depends on Casas' August and September this year, I think. There's a lot of moving parts (Xander, JD, Casas, and to an extent Devers), but if we assume Casas is the primary 1B for 2023, I'm not sure either Dalbec or Franchy (even with hot streak) is the kind of player you want as a backup 1B. They'd be used if Casas does poorly and there's no guarantee they wouldn't be deployed during a cold stretch of futility. Both have upside, but their track record indicates we have to also account for uncertainty. As far as folding them in/calling them up elsewhere, Dalbec is 1B/3B/DH, and Franchy (at this point) is OF/DH. Franchy seems the least likely to be blocked going forward.

As far as Hosmer's role in 2023, I think he likely is the backup 1B and semi-DH (depending on JD, etc.). But that's assuming there's a good Fenway effect, as some have speculated might happen. We'll likely be able to see if there is one this year, and that would factor into the equation. Even with the effect, at age 33, I doubt he gets up to his career high OPS+ of 133. But 110-120? You can certainly live with that (for free) while looking around.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
47,964
Because the current options have upside that Hosmer does not. Simple as that. I get that people are soothed by the 112 wRC+ Hosmer put up in San Diego this year -- and the fact that there's no cost is great -- but his hitting profile and age leave no real hope for upside.
Cordero is almost 28, Dalbec is 27--at some point it might not be upside or potential with these guys any longer.