SoSH Breaks / Mar 2023 - 2022 Bowman Chrome

shoosh77 · Mar 4, 2023

In for whatever, I’ll let the smarter folks lead us to the promised land of big pulls.

Deathofthebambino · Mar 5, 2023

Didn't realize we were voting, but I definitely vote for Bowman Chrome.

Traut · Mar 6, 2023

Bowman Chrome

Fishercat · Mar 6, 2023

JoePoulson said:
OK let's go with Bowman Chrome for the March break! That will push our budget to roughly $135-140-ish assuming we want that full case again?

That's assuming 25 slots or so I'd guess?

First off, just for reference, linked is a pretty great checklist that breaks it out by team

2022 Bowman Chrome Hobby Baseball Checklist (cardsmithsbreaks.com)

Of note, you're likely to see mostly or all "Bowman Chrome Prospect Autos" - insert autos are noticeably tougher and generally when you see insane Bowman Chrome prices, it's Bowman 1st Prospect Autos.

I know there's been arguments for the following methods. With more solid potential entry numbers we can give some more concrete details.

Random Packs - a case would have 144 packs - this would mean five packs per person (5x125) with 19 packs left over for 25 slots. If one person does sit out, it's 6 packs per person if 24 people are in the break - functionally a half box break for each person. If it does come out that people decide on random packs and everyone wants to participate, I'll be happy to sit this one out and make this a lot easier. This would average out to an auto a person but isn't a guarantee - it's quite possible one batch of packs has both autos and all colors and the other is all base of course.
Random or Drafted Teams: With 25 people, that means five paired teams if we do it like we did for Stadium Club. Using the eBay data as well as the FireHand and Blez data earlier in the thread, there's pretty much consensus that Oakland, Arizona, and Miami are probably the three "least valuable" teams in the break. Blez is on an island with Philly as a paired team IMO especially with only three "pairs" - Firehand and Ebay both have them as one of the mid-tier teas in this. Between the three sources, nine teams are in agreement - BAL, SF, LAA, TOR, HOU, ATL MIA, ARZ, OAK. The 10th would be Detroit (Ebay and Blez) or Chicago WS (Firehand) - I'd argue Detroit. If we have time, I think drafted teams makes some sense for this product - everyone has different opinions on which teams and prospects they like and honestly, even the consensus "bottom" teams aren't my bottom teams as I plot this out a bit - there's pairs I'd 100% take over some of the individual teams and the eBay or Blez's or Firehand's order is not what I would put as my personal preference. Some of it is bias (Sox higher), some of it is just what I'd rather hunt in this product and players l like. Alternatively, random also works for the reasons discussed a bit earlier - I'm not gonna pretend to know about every team's prospects to deviate muchfrom the rankings.
- The full case could also be split into two half cases - we'd probably need to "pair up" teams and make those slots and it's much smoother with 30 entries for each half case.
Hit Draft or Random Hit- 24 autos for 25 slots means everyone likely gets an auto or the best non-auto color card in the break if they want it, I'm with DotB/Traut that I think random hit is better in products that are hit based products.
PYT: Data on this is in the thread of course. Joe would need to price it out and there's some dramatic variance between Firehand and Ebay sales data. Just as a broad understanding I put an "average" below giving 50% weight to each data point and spoilered the chart below. One of the things with Chrome is that there's pretty major disagreement between different people as to what teams should be valued at. Adjusting Firehand's price (see) note to eBay sum, you still have major variance between the parties.
- Of note - Firehand's pricing was to the price of the case at release - this has dropped several hundred dollars since release - Firehand's sums all added are $3938, eBayt is $3236, and current case price is much closer to the latter. I did an "even" split in the below but a more honest value would require weighting which I don't have in my - it's largely to just give a very rough idea on cost. I would expect the price of a PYT here so skew lower overall but not consistently.

I still support random teams or drafted teams for this product FWIW, but I know some folks have had crap luck with it and that sucks.


SEA	$325.00
WAS	$319.00
MIL	$292.73
SD	$268.61
NYY	$178.79
LAD	$171.67
TBR	$171.55
TEX	$156.70
PIT	$141.32
CIN	$139.63
MIN	$127.75
KC	$124.48
BOS	$122.25
STL	$102.26
Col	$99.97
PHI	$95.51
NYM	$82.00
CLE	$81.94
CHC	$70.40
CHI	$68.10
BAL	$65.50
DET	$59.51
SF	$52.74
LAA	$46.07
HOU	$45.85
TOR	$45.01
ATL	$40.15
OAK	$36.83
MIA	$28.20
ARZ	$27.34

deanx0 · Mar 6, 2023

I am down with Bowman Chrome and ok with the budget increase

Traut · Mar 6, 2023

Random teams is fine by me. I know I'm going to lose money. I may as well not lose time.

tmracht · Mar 6, 2023

Yep its okay with me.

Oil Can Dan · Mar 6, 2023

No comment on the # of participants but I'm fine with the double random part. Nothing will be perfect and that seems the simplist.

Ale Xander · Mar 6, 2023

JoePoulson said:
Do you want in for this break? You'd make #25 if so...

I am sitting this one out

hoping we can do Diamond Kings in May and then I’ll be in

Considering April too depending on what it is

Thank you so much for doing all of this.

NJ_Sox_Fan · Mar 6, 2023

JoePoulson said:
I think at the end of the day, we, as participants, need to all say and agree this is 100% gambling and some breaks are gonna be amazing and some are gonna be shit. Several of you have already said as much, but for these particular SoSH breaks, I vote we keep them double random for now and if we need to modify then we will.

That being said, if anyone wants to do an additional break of another product, I'm game. Doesn't have to be a full/huge group, we can break anything, etc. We've mentioned a lot of products and I'm not sure if we'd be interested in them all as a big group. But maybe smaller groups will want to do something? I don't know, just a thought.

We sit at 24, want me to close the group so we have that perfectly even amount? Howany do we want for a Bowman Chrome break with pure randomization?

Agreed. It’s all a gamble, and honestly, will never be fair value for all involved. It’s impossible to do, unless everyone is strictly in the breaks to receive no cards and just pre-agree that all “hits” are sold and money is evenly divided, and of course even that doesn’t guarantee anyone comes out ahead.

I used to run a lot of breaks on Blowout a while ago and also had a few monthly break clubs going, and it’s all just a crapshoot. Sometimes you get a great case, sometimes you hit 1 amazing card, and sometimes it’s an overall dud for everyone involved.

I just enjoyed doing them because it allowed me to open a ton of packs and even if I wasn’t necessarily getting anything good myself it was fun to rip. Plus with case prices now it’s ridiculous. I think I opened probably 10 cases or so of 2009 Bowman Draft at the time for roughly $600 a case. Too bad I didn’t leave any sealed. Also too bad I sold a blue refractor auto Trout way, way, waaaayyyyy too early.

Fishercat · Mar 6, 2023

JoePoulson said:
I think at the end of the day, we, as participants, need to all say and agree this is 100% gambling and some breaks are gonna be amazing and some are gonna be shit. Several of you have already said as much, but for these particular SoSH breaks, I vote we keep them double random for now and if we need to modify then we will.

That being said, if anyone wants to do an additional break of another product, I'm game. Doesn't have to be a full/huge group, we can break anything, etc. We've mentioned a lot of products and I'm not sure if we'd be interested in them all as a big group. But maybe smaller groups will want to do something? I don't know, just a thought.

We sit at 24, want me to close the group so we have that perfectly even amount? Howany do we want for a Bowman Chrome break with pure randomization?

24 is a pretty nice number in a random team break as well. It's a breakpoint using the average values I had above (the market had a reasonable gap between Cleveland as the last solo team and the Cubs as the first paired team) and if Cleveland and the Mets are your least valuable solo teams, they have some real chases in Valera and Baty in inserts and some regular auto options as well - that ain't bad. With that said I think anything between 23-26 also works pretty well - 27 is where it gets iffy in my view and 22 or less starts to invite duos with teams who are perfectly fine solo. Just as what it might look like just using the chart earlier, adjust as you like it's all very debatable. I probably wouldn't go beyond 26 personally.

I think I've said most of any other products I'd be intrigued by. If people want to get really weird Goodwin Champions box prices are finally around the point I think they should be hanging out in (like the 80 range) and it's a weird arse product but there's some really fun stuff in there. The site I'm on broke by letter in first name and I'm struggling to think of a different way to really do it tbh. I'd probably sit out of other sports (football and basketbal are insanely priced for what you get and I don't know much about hockey) outside of pro wrestling.

24 Entries

SEA
[*]WAS
[*]MIL
[*]SD
[*]NYY
[*]LAD
[*]TBR
[*]TEX
[*]PIT
[*]CIN
[*]MIN
[*]KC
[*]BOS
[*]STL
[*]Col
[*]PHI
[*]NYM
[*]CLE
[*]CHC / ARZ
[*]CHI / MIA
[*]BAL / OAK
[*]DET / ATL
[*]SF / TOR
[*]LAA / HOU

25 Entries
SEA
[*]WAS
[*]MIL
[*]SD
[*]NYY
[*]LAD
[*]TBR
[*]TEX
[*]PIT
[*]CIN
[*]MIN
[*]KC
[*]BOS
[*]STL
[*]Col
[*]PHI
[*]NYM
[*]CLE
[*]CHC
[*]CHI
[*]BAL / ARZ
[*]DET / MIA
[*]SF / OAK
[*]LAA / ATL
[*]HOU/ TOR

opes · Mar 6, 2023

I'm in again, but the team way sucks. How about 1 pack per draw, next guy, 1 pack per draw. I'm just spitballing. Each time I have had the worst team.

Change I'm opinion, I'm cool with whatever we go with.

shoosh77 · Mar 6, 2023

I’m in. Double random works for me just for simplicity.

One Red Seat · Mar 6, 2023

I'm in. Will go with the majority for product selection and randomization method

Traut · Mar 7, 2023

opes said:
I'm in again, but the team way sucks. How about 1 pack per draw, next guy, 1 pack per draw. I'm just spitballing. Each time I have had the worst team.

Change I'm opinion, I'm cool with whatever we go with.

I think this is all relative. For all of our breaks the best card I’ve pulled is a Sean Doolittle stadium club autograph.

Happy to send you the Patrick Mazeika auto I got from our last break if it helps your spirits.

Whatever format we choose there is probably 1-2 hit cards in a case and if we are lucky another 1-2 that are cool like say a Jim Rice autograph. No matter how we do it 24 guys buy in and 22 are going home losers.

There just aren’t enough hits unless we do a case of say a very high end product like Sterling. And even then everyone who buys in is likely to turn a grand into $250 worth of cards.

Pack variation slightly increases the odds that instead of 2 guys winning the break that only 1 does

I haven’t seen any breaks where if they are 2 hits they are from the same team. I’m sure with quality control it’s happened. But if you are Topps spreading the wealth on those inserts makes all the sense in the world to keep people hunting.

Also it seems like pack placement in boxes themselves aren’t random.I don’t think I’ve ever seen a hit come out of the first pack opened in a box.

And if you say mix up the packs all it does is put more work on the breaker to remember what pack was whose. For no gain.

If you want to collect buy singles. If you want to buy teams head on over to ebay and buy them. If you want to gamble on a chance at something cool a team format is the best way to do this.

Deathofthebambino · Mar 7, 2023

Traut said:
Also it seems like pack placement in boxes themselves aren’t random.I don’t think I’ve ever seen a hit come out of the first pack opened in a box.

And if you say mix up the packs all it does is put more work on the breaker to remember what pack was whose. For no gain.

If you want to collect buy singles. If you want to buy teams head on over to ebay and buy them. If you want to gamble on a chance at something cool a team format is the best way to do this.

Agreed with all of this, especially these three points.

The hits contained in the boxes themselves are not random. For products like Chrome and Finest, you know exactly which pack is going to have the auto in each box. if you watch enough breaks, you'll find some breakers regularly leave those packs to the end when watching a break, to keep the interest up.

And for a product like Chrome, the amount of work it would require would just be complete insanity, for virtually no reward as you'll still have the same number of hits, the same number of people, and most folks will still get almost all commons....

heavyde050 · Mar 7, 2023

I am always in for a break. I am also perfectly fine with random. I just really enjoy doing this with on SoSH.

Zoidberg · Mar 7, 2023

Still looking to fill a spot or is this break set? If you’re still wanting to fill spot 19, I’m happy to gamble along with the crew. Or happy to keep enjoying seeing the cards in these threads, some gorgeous ones out there!

JoePoulson said:
Breakers:

18. Mugsy's Jock
19. ???
20. DoubleXX1022

We are down to 23 and can stop there or add another for 24

shoosh77 · Mar 7, 2023

Put me in the always down crew for breaks please

opes · Mar 8, 2023

I'm good

tmracht · Mar 8, 2023

Affirm okay.

One Red Seat · Mar 8, 2023

Good by me

Fishercat · Mar 8, 2023

Seems about what we expected, good to go.

Oil Can Dan · Mar 8, 2023

Good here. Any concern about the case not being sealed?

Fishercat · Mar 8, 2023

DA raised the cost again while we were talking. Fess up, who here is working with them?

Blowout and Steel City also has it around that price too so there's options.

In terms of sealed/not sealed, it probably comes down to assuming the vendor is reputable but I don't think Chrome is a "case hit" kind of product where people will rip to get to a certain card and then sell the rest for that - though I feel like DotB, Traut, etc. know way more on this product than I do so there may be some reason I guess?

heavyde050 · Mar 8, 2023

I am good with that.

bostonbeerbelly · Mar 8, 2023

No cost issue here

Petagine in a Bottle · Mar 8, 2023

shoosh77 · Mar 8, 2023

All good here

Fishercat · Mar 9, 2023

Let's goooooo

Payment is sent, I forgot to include my username so I'll PM to link it for you.

Fishercat · Mar 9, 2023

Assuming 24 slots with a random selection,, I took the eBay values I pulled and the Firebrand values in the thread and then adjusted both values to the cost of the case Joe purchased, and then averaged them to get a rough market value. Below are the recommended "slots" assuming all we want to do is pair off teams at the bottom. I'm fine with whatever split we do - I think there's a reasonable argument Cleveland should be in the pairs and a Chicago should be solo, this isn't hugely clear cut on that front

SEA
WAS
MIL
SD
NYY
TBR
LAD
TEX
PIT
CIN
MIN
KC
BOS
STL
Col
PHI
CLE
NYM
---------
CHC / ARZ
CHW / MIA
BAL / OAK
DET / ATL
SF / TOR
LAA / HOU

shoosh77 · Mar 9, 2023

If we’re going with 24 slots, how much do we owe you?

shoosh77 · Mar 9, 2023

PrestonBroadus Lives · Mar 9, 2023

bostonbeerbelly · Mar 9, 2023

Paid - thanks

Petagine in a Bottle · Mar 9, 2023

One Red Seat · Mar 9, 2023

Sent via PayPal. Thanks

Mugsy's Jock · Mar 9, 2023

Paid

Hey @JoePoulson , received my batch the other day and appreciate how efficient and well packed everything was. And, truth be told, my Rangers/Rockies quinella wasn’t all that awful for stadium Club, after all my bitching and moaning.

I’m willing to give random teams one more shot, but would appreciate some luck from the breaking gods.

SoSH Breaks / Mar 2023 - 2022 Bowman Chrome

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