Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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@HomeRunBaker does this concern you with the Clips taking them lightly or the Nuggets underdogs playing harder?

I know in some instances you play that side of the coin.
Yes it changes the dynamic a bit. I bought back about 50% at +11 and will watch for Clippers energy levels both early on and whether it appears sustainable energy. Yes, I'll use body language and reads that can never be quantified but does not mean they don't exist...it's my job to figure it out. If I see some Clipper lethargy I may hop in with some more Nuggets including live ML at +money. I really don't expect that here however as this Clippers group seem to be working hard and coming together as a unit but will be aware of this possibility. Basically, if you didn't play at 5.5 I would recommend dog or pass with a lean toward the latter.

I took some Under 228.5 in-game on Lakers/Sixers here. May add to it is pace slows as I feel it may.

Edit: It's never good when you are happy to have Marcus Morris Sr. subbed out. So beneficial.
 
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Red Averages

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I took Lakers +19.5 and +16. Will prob hammer under if Philly isn’t white hot from 3 in the third. 50% from 3 on 26 attempts in the half is wild. And the O/U is the same spot as the game started. Have to think we’re looking at a far better pace for under and Lakers.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I took Lakers +19.5 and +16. Will prob hammer under if Philly isn’t white hot from 3 in the third. 50% from 3 on 26 attempts in the half is wild. And the O/U is the same spot as the game started. Have to think we’re looking at a far better pace for under and Lakers.
Yeah after a few empty possessions after I clicked I think they made 7 of 9 three's in the 2Q. Aside from that all was good lol.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Smashing 237 unders
Just saw this. I took some 239.5 and more 235.5 too. Going too early is a leak of mine for sure.

I think the Clipper middle is so live right now. LA is clearly playing down to the Nuggets team they have on the floor but should be able to execute down the stretch to win the game.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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@HomeRunBaker does this concern you with the Clips taking them lightly or the Nuggets underdogs playing harder?

I know in some instances you play that side of the coin.
It's my sweet spot angle throughout the season. It is difficult to completely flip sides on a game midstream and as said above....I wanted to look to live bet Nuggets at plus money but never pulled the trigger. It's not only identifying the spot but it is pulling the trigger too. I failed in doing so here. Really bad on my part.
 

Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
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It's my sweet spot angle throughout the season. It is difficult to completely flip sides on a game midstream and as said above....I wanted to look to live bet Nuggets at plus money but never pulled the trigger. It's not only identifying the spot but it is pulling the trigger too. I failed in doing so here. Really bad on my part.
I got in on DraftKings at Nuggets +10 for +114 which seemed insane. Was also in on Clippers -5.5 so was able to mitigate the loss.

Tonight should be interesting with teams potentially playing the point differential game.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Celtics game should be interesting from a live betting perspective. They should have double digits leads at multiple points in this game if not run away and hide....and that's without the 23-pt tournament target.

If I'm Coach Joe I'm downplaying this effect leading up to the game and saying all the right things....run our stuff, defensive assisgnments, get the loose balls, etc. This all changes at halftime with a 55-39 lead. The financial reward for winning this thing is a big deal to those on the 2nd and 3rd unit so I would not expect to see any additional minutes from the starters.....however this is a GREAT opportunity to push your deep bench players into busting their ass in the 4Q of a blowout which is normally like pulling teeth. So no, I don't expect our starters to play the final 3-4 minutes, or even return at the 6-7 min mark if the lead is 22+, as Joe pushes his deep bench to best evaluate. Normally you cannot evaluate in those garbage minutes at the end of blowouts so this is an opportunity I expect him to take advantage of and to sell to those guys.
 
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Red Averages

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Celtics game should be interesting from a live betting perspective. They should have double digits leads at multiple points in this game if not run away and hide....and that's without the 23-pt tournament target.

If I'm Coach Joe I'm downplaying this effect leading up to the game and saying all the right things....run our stuff, defensive assisgnments, get the loose balls, etc. This all changes at halftime with a 55-39 lead. The financial reward for winning this thing is a big deal to those on the 2nd and 3rd unit so I would not expect to see any additional minutes from the starters.....however this is a GREAT opportunity to push your deep bench players into busting their ass in the 4Q of a blowout which is normally like pulling teeth. So no, I don't expect our starters to play the final 3-4 minutes, or even return at the 6-7 min mark if the lead is 22+, as Joe pushes his deep bench to best evaluate. Normally you cannot evaluate in those garbage minutes at the end of blowouts so this is an opportunity I expect him to take advantage of and to sell to those guys.
That's a good point. Maybe worth some props on Celtics guys in-game...
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Continuing fade if the two most overvalued teams in the league, the Bucks and Warriors.

* Heat +3 is good....Kings -1.5 is very good. Playing as a 1u/2u for this specific BR balance

* Celtics winning margin plays of 23+ may show value before it gets smashed. My books have 21+ at +270 but I'm sure legals will be much better especially if you can filter out those couple of points to get over 23.
 

Red Averages

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Continuing fade if the two most overvalued teams in the league, the Bucks and Warriors.

* Heat +3 is good....Kings -1.5 is very good. Playing as a 1u/2u for this specific BR balance

* Celtics winning margin plays of 23+ may show value before it gets smashed. My books have 21+ at +270 but I'm sure legals will be much better especially if you can filter out those couple of points to get over 23.
FYI Butler is out for the Heat. I can be your Herroooooo
 

Mloaf71

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Celtics definitely playing for the point differential. Leveraged that for a long shot that hit in the third Q.74455
 

HomeRunBaker

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* LA Clippers -2

I found one place where this is posted overnight. Bounce back spot off the letdown loss against the Kings on a B2B off an emotional win against Warriors. Smash spot if you can get this number or up to -3.

Edit: Found a -1.5 LFG!!
 
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Red Averages

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Seeing Celtics -4.5 for the in season tournament at Indy. I took some of that before it adjusts higher. Celtics clearly motivated to win this based on last nights performance and coaching. Schedule wise, they played Tues, have Wed/Thurs off before hosting Philly Fri, then Sat and Sun off before playing Indy. Indy meanwhile has two straight games at Miami Thurs and Saturday. Seems like a good smash spot to me before it closes near 7.5/8.

Knicks are +6 at Milwaukee for the IST as well. I played some of that but not as aggressive. Also parlaid some Celtics + Knicks moneyline as I can’t get the image of them playing in Vegas out of my head…
 

HomeRunBaker

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Heads up on the IST quarterfinals totals. I don't expect the 1H to have much variation from a normal regular season game, although it may, however the 2H is not likely to be properly priced for game slowing down into a true playoff elimination type pace. Ok thats too generous....it won't be priced properly. I never even look at a pregame 3Q or 4Q market but the 4Q market pregame almost certainly will have value to the Under. If the game is somewhat tightly contested after 3Q, that live Under very well could be some gold smash city. Now once we get to Vegas my position only intensifies. Totals will be way way off pregame for essentially a playoff game on a neutral site where nearly every player will be experiencing foreign shooting backgrounds.
 

Red Averages

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Heads up on the IST quarterfinals totals. I don't expect the 1H to have much variation from a normal regular season game, although it may, however the 2H is not likely to be properly priced for game slowing down into a true playoff elimination type pace. Ok thats too generous....it won't be priced properly. I never even look at a pregame 3Q or 4Q market but the 4Q market pregame almost certainly will have value to the Under. If the game is somewhat tightly contested after 3Q, that live Under very well could be some gold smash city. Now once we get to Vegas my position only intensifies. Totals will be way way off pregame for essentially a playoff game on a neutral site where nearly every player will be experiencing foreign shooting backgrounds.
Yeah, I'm licking my chops at a possible Knicks-Celtics game on Thursday in Vegas. Total probably comes in at 216 or so and that game will be lucky to hit 195....

It's interesting with the Pacers generally having a top offense and usually carry super high O/U totals. Should be a lot of room for Tuesday when it posts.

Are you surprised the Celtics opened at -4.5?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, I'm licking my chops at a possible Knicks-Celtics game on Thursday in Vegas. Total probably comes in at 216 or so and that game will be lucky to hit 195....

It's interesting with the Pacers generally having a top offense and usually carry super high O/U totals. Should be a lot of room for Tuesday when it posts.

Are you surprised the Celtics opened at -4.5?
Yes and No. The number itself is value on the Pacers however it doesn't surprise me due to how the markets value the Celtics if you remember the Orlando number which i had said the night prior was so far out of whack yet still didn't create any movement.
 

benhogan

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Yes and No. The number itself is value on the Pacers however it doesn't surprise me due to how the markets value the Celtics if you remember the Orlando number which i had said the night prior was so far out of whack yet still didn't create any movement.
Aren't the Celtics a terrible match-up for Indy? The Pacers are the opposite of Orlando
They will want to play fast and the JAYs will feast, while Boston can bully them with its size/defense.

The Pacers schedule so far looks pretty soft (with 11 HOME games) as they sit at 9-7
They lost to PDX at home on Monday :eek:

Also, KP said on the broadcast that he expects to be back.
 

Red Averages

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Yes and No. The number itself is value on the Pacers however it doesn't surprise me due to how the markets value the Celtics if you remember the Orlando number which i had said the night prior was so far out of whack yet still didn't create any movement.
hmmm I'm surprised the value is to the Pacers side. Celtics play 1 game in the week around this game and clearly seem motivated to get to vegas. They also beat the Pacers by 41 points a month ago.
 

HomeRunBaker

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hmmm I'm surprised the value is to the Pacers side. Celtics play 1 game in the week around this game and clearly seem motivated to get to vegas. They also beat the Pacers by 41 points a month ago.
Those are my numbers anyway. The 155-104 game last month in Boston doesn't tell me much as the Pacers without Halliburton won't resemble the team we see with him next week where the Pacers shot 5-37 from three while the Celtics shot 20-35 and haven't been the same team on the road. I expect a close competitive game and if those shooting numbers reversed a little (not to that extreme) it wouldn't surprise me.
 

HomeRunBaker

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* Played OKC -7 on probability of LeBron and/or AD having the night off. Good chance you get 3-4 pts of CLV but I like the Thunder with them playing too.
 

HomeRunBaker

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* LA Clippers -2

I found one place where this is posted overnight. Bounce back spot off the letdown loss against the Kings on a B2B off an emotional win against Warriors. Smash spot if you can get this number or up to -3.

Edit: Found a -1.5 LFG!!
I don't say "Smash Spot" often. Hope you guys smashed it.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Makes me happy!!

Interesting line movement on OKC/Lakers as was case last night in Clips/Kings with the Lakers taking action pushing this down to 5.5 where I played majority of this number as my overnights are limited if not nonexistent. Preliminary word was that LeBron and/or AD could sit which would likely come out with the injury report later this morning. Lakers have been without Vanderbilt all year and Vincent/Hachimura recently.....Vincent has been awful but Hachimura returning would be of great help to the Lakers frontcourt defensive rotation and as the only non-AD guy to matchup with Holmgren. We should know more in a couple hours.

In addition to OKC, I lean Warriors -5 over Clips coming off the Kings loss and coming home. Probably like a 2u/1u split between these two games. The three big dogs with low totals are intriguing to me....Pistons, Blazers and Jazz. Didn't do anything with them yet however.
 

Mloaf71

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Makes me happy!!

Interesting line movement on OKC/Lakers as was case last night in Clips/Kings with the Lakers taking action pushing this down to 5.5 where I played majority of this number as my overnights are limited if not nonexistent. Preliminary word was that LeBron and/or AD could sit which would likely come out with the injury report later this morning. Lakers have been without Vanderbilt all year and Vincent/Hachimura recently.....Vincent has been awful but Hachimura returning would be of great help to the Lakers frontcourt defensive rotation and as the only non-AD guy to matchup with Holmgren. We should know more in a couple hours.

In addition to OKC, I lean Warriors -5 over Clips coming off the Kings loss and coming home. Probably like a 2u/1u split between these two games. The three big dogs with low totals are intriguing to me....Pistons, Blazers and Jazz. Didn't do anything with them yet however.
I see LAL +3 currently on DraftKings.
 

Red Averages

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Bulls beating the Bucks without LaVine, after the Celtics humiliated them during the the in-season tournament is the most HRB play ever that I’m offended Bulls +7 wasn’t a smash play!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Bulls beating the Bucks without LaVine, after the Celtics humiliated them during the the in-season tournament is the most HRB play ever that I’m offended Bulls +7 wasn’t a smash play!
I know right? I only played the two I mentioned and my next best was Portland but didn't pull trigger. Watching Jamal Crawford and the other guy on TNT rag about how Harden should come off the bench and how the Clippers offense is too slow with him....click. People believe this garbage too.

Anyway, nice little run we're on over here with reads spot on that allow me to confidently go against my numbers in the late game (my number prior to variables factored was Clippers -2). I'll repeat again...scheduling spots are THE most important factor to consider in NBA capping. This game closed Warriors -1.5 after Paul and Wiggins ruled out. The NBA market is the most inefficient market of the major sports and is showing no signs of changing anytime soon.

Let's keep this going.
 

Mloaf71

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Awesome work HRB. I thought GSW was going to run away and hide in the second quarter last night (like OKC did) but the Clippers showed fight. Great heater!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Slim Pickens tonight. Lean to Grizz +10 but nothing special....probably file it with the dogs from last night that show value but not enough to jump in.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Here I go again with a Celtics/Sixers over with a GTD Embiid. Probably a +EV track meet if he doesn’t play and a coinflip if he does. At least that’s my thinking.
 

Red Averages

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This also means the Celtics had a nice blowout win in-season Tournament win on Tues… then off until what appears to be a white flag waving 76ers tonight… then off until Monday for the next in-season tournament game in Indiana. That line has now moved from Celtics -4.5 (-110) to -5 (-118). Still think it gets closer to -7 but maybe I’m still missing something.
 

Red Averages

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I jammed more Philly team total under. Expect Celtics to lockdown now that they are finally motivated.

need to bail out my priors…