One NBA play today:
U235.5 Pistons/Mavericks at ESPNBet, most other places U234.5 is still good.
U235.5 Pistons/Mavericks at ESPNBet, most other places U234.5 is still good.
Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!
- Thread starter HomeRunBaker
- Start date
Had info early this morning that Doncic was sitting so was expecting 4-5 pts CLV but went the other way. It moved before I could cover. It happens.
Bringing this over here. Maybe you can make some money on Hauser/Pritchard points OVER tonight.
OUT: Brown, KP, Horford...That's a lot of shots for Sam & Payton to sop up.
Last night:
PP got the start/30 minutes last night. Didn't shoot particularly well 5/11 but a decent line:
11 points (hit the over - 8.5), 8 rebounds, 8 assists, 0 turnovers, +12
CJM rode Hauser's hot hand for 32 minutes and 22 points (6/10 from 3)
Forgot to post Lakers here tonight. Had it on the Discord. Tomorrow played the Pelicans -7.5 in a great great spot.
Yw. Are you in the Discord? NBA, Tennis and Soccer all absolutely crushing.
Tonight is probably one of those “Close your eyes and tell me the final score” type of game but as mentioned in another thread the last place this Celtics team wants to be on the end of their trip is in Charlotte today following their bounce back circled win over the Pelicans. Charlotte +17 is an autobet here at normal (1u) regular season bet sizing.
I’d imagine several starters sit for Boston but honestly I’d prefer their halfhearted effort than second unit energy…although even those guys may not have a hop in their step for this scheduling spot. It’s so bad it’s worth a .1u sprinkle on the ML at +900
I’d imagine several starters sit for Boston but honestly I’d prefer their halfhearted effort than second unit energy…although even those guys may not have a hop in their step for this scheduling spot. It’s so bad it’s worth a .1u sprinkle on the ML at +900
+17 is just so ludicrous. I thought so before the game too when I saw your post, so not hindsight. It's really hard to justify numbers like that, especially this point in the season.
Could have gotten up to +18.5 by gametime after lineups were finalized. If I expected all but Jaylen to go I’d have waited for better number. Bad read on that by me.
OKC Thunder +11
Celtics first game home following long trip coupled with a natural letdown with SGA and JW now OUT for OKC.
Celtics first game home following long trip coupled with a natural letdown with SGA and JW now OUT for OKC.
Lots of discussion in Discord on MIP, DPOY and COY markets. Anyone who’s been tailing here has Coby White at around +500 or so (he’s now +150), and Wemby around +900 iirc. Myself, and some others, added to Wemby at as much as +1000 today which seem outrageous….and sprinkled some on Mazzulla at +4000 for COY. One unnamed SoSHer did more than sprinkle him at +5000 (wasn’t me).
You can usually get ahead of these markets pretty easily as we did with White and as we did when we cashed Brogdon last year for 6th man. Wemby, well I think we “should” have gotten ahead of it but for some reason Gobert is still -1500 which to me is insane. COY is another where Daigneault is still -300 and Mazzulla as high as 50-1. I fully expect these numbers to condense by the end of the season with maybe some luster coming off OKC with Finch, Mosley and Mazzulla taking some of the money. It’s simple math and analysis of voter psychology…..does Mazzulla win this more than twice over 100 votes….does Wemby win more than 1 out of 10 votes? So the value is absolutely there we now need those winning iterations to come through in the actual vote.
The cool thing is that as we draw near there will be leaks and tweets of who certain voters are clicking so these markets can get volatile as this occurs. Key is to get ahead of the moves.
You can usually get ahead of these markets pretty easily as we did with White and as we did when we cashed Brogdon last year for 6th man. Wemby, well I think we “should” have gotten ahead of it but for some reason Gobert is still -1500 which to me is insane. COY is another where Daigneault is still -300 and Mazzulla as high as 50-1. I fully expect these numbers to condense by the end of the season with maybe some luster coming off OKC with Finch, Mosley and Mazzulla taking some of the money. It’s simple math and analysis of voter psychology…..does Mazzulla win this more than twice over 100 votes….does Wemby win more than 1 out of 10 votes? So the value is absolutely there we now need those winning iterations to come through in the actual vote.
The cool thing is that as we draw near there will be leaks and tweets of who certain voters are clicking so these markets can get volatile as this occurs. Key is to get ahead of the moves.
Bad bet. Even though it was a single digit game in the 4Q I underestimated the Celtics remaining focus for 48 min even after the injury report. Playoffs are around the corner.
Really feels like Wemby is getting closer to a coin flip, so I’ll take the 7-10% market odds all day.
Similarly, Joe at 2% or 3% odds when he should be closer to 20-25 is something I’m comfortable smashing even if I don’t expect to win.
Similarly, Joe at 2% or 3% odds when he should be closer to 20-25 is something I’m comfortable smashing even if I don’t expect to win.
Betting against the Celtics now when they sit 3 of the TOP6 (something I expect with Al, JB, Jrue, KP getting extra rest) is tricky.
White/Tatum are wired to play hard every game. Then stick Hauser/PP/Luke/Tillman on the court with them & that group will be perpetually underrated.
Wemby is gaining media steam for DPOY yet the market isn’t adjusting. I added more Wemby at +1100 this morning. I have NO idea what his implied probability is on this….maybe Wemby wins 5 of 10 iterations, maybe 3 of 10. One thing I’m certain of is that he wins 1 of 10. You don’t see this kind of value and market inefficiency very often in 2024.
Most fun time of the year for the Silver Dollar. Any chance we can get another Discord invite for those of who missed out?
https://discord.gg/KVG5Peg8
UFC had a big bounce back week +11u, tennis and soccer continues to grind. New cappers added each of past two weeks also.
For some reason in the discord I can read all the different threads except the nba one. Anyone else having that issue?
On the discord site, what's the difference between these threads?:
1. VIP nba-official-postseason
2. VIP nba-playoffs-liveplays
3. nba-discussion
I presume that that day's/night's picks are placed in #1; "ongoing" picks during games are placed in #2; and that #3 is general discussion unrelated to picks?
1. VIP nba-official-postseason
2. VIP nba-playoffs-liveplays
3. nba-discussion
I presume that that day's/night's picks are placed in #1; "ongoing" picks during games are placed in #2; and that #3 is general discussion unrelated to picks?
Yeah I’m still going to throw stuff in here for those who don’t do Discord but if something is Discord-related please keep it out of this thread and PM me over there. Ty
Looks like we are in decent shape for those who tailed the Coby White Most Improved Player at +500 (or +600, I forget what it was when I posted here). Seems like we are benefiting from many voters leaving Maxey off their ballot completely as he’s been really good for awhile now. Recency bias at its finest and always a factor in these ballots.
Unfortunately we ran into a bunch of nut jobs who also left Wemby completely off their DPOY ballot to have a shot at the huge upset there. He’s hanging in on the 1st place votes but is going to come up short at his monster price.
Unfortunately we ran into a bunch of nut jobs who also left Wemby completely off their DPOY ballot to have a shot at the huge upset there. He’s hanging in on the 1st place votes but is going to come up short at his monster price.
60-white old writers going with the “They lost 60 games he didn’t have an impact” angle. Shameful. To me, there were only 3 players who deserved votes as the gap to 4 was enormous. The gap from 1a/1b to Anthony Davis at 3 was equally wide. Bam and Herb Jones getting votes over Wemby should require a reasoning essay to league headquarters. (Hyperbole…sort of)
Last edited:
Actually slow start preflops -1.7u in playoffs there but +4.2u official live bets. Soccer is up about 20u and Tennis 10u since I began this last month. Funny that my two historically best sports, UFC and NBA are the laggards. That’s a great sign.
The officiating changes since the ASB and now into the playoffs have really messed with my Totals but constantly adapting. I actually have a 1H Over tonight. I’ll share here it’s Pacers/Bucks o109.
The link expires every 24-48 hours I think. Here’s fresh one.
https://discord.gg/MPfVcPpx