Should the Sox sell high on Jarren Duran?

Should the Sox trade or keep or trade Jarren Duran?

  • Keep Duran - he showed too much in 23' to give up on him now

    Votes: 165 50.3%
  • Trade Duran - last year's performance is unsustainable and his trade value will never be higher.

    Votes: 163 49.7%

  • Total voters
    328

sezwho

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Theoretically, you would "sell high" on pretty much anyone, no? If someone is willing to offer you more value than you attribute to a player, then you make the deal. Of course how one team values a player will frequently by different than how another team does, making trades in general a worthwhile pursuit.

In terms of what Duran brings or will bring to the Sox, I think, as others have said, that he will continue to post high BABIP numbers consistently, but also a decent OPS despite not hitting many homers or walking at a high rate. I see it fueled by that BABIP and his ability to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples with his footspeed. That won't last forever, and it might make him more injury-prone as he'll be in full-sprint mode more than someone who doesn't rely on beating out or stretching hits, but why not get fun, productive, and unique (in this day) production on the cheap?

Unless of course some other team overvalues him. Then you move him.
I don’t think ‘winning’ a trade like this in the moment is exactly the goal. Sure, who doesn’t want to sell high and I don’t want to waste assets, but we traded Sale+$ to get Grissom. We traded Pavano+ for Pedro.

They are all kind of lottery tickets, but you should plan to give up quality to get it, and be mostly interested in the return: particularly assuming you are trading from depth for need.
 

RS2004foreever

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I think "He is what he is" might be the exact opposite of how I feel about Duran. I have no idea what he is. His profile has changed a dozen times the last 5 years.

If "he is what he is" means he's the following then in no why in hell would I trade him for anything other than top end players...
  • 46% hard hit rate
  • 25% K rate
  • 97th Percentile base runner value
  • wOBA .354
  • wRC+ 120
Those are incredibly valuable numbers. Honestly, they aren't much different from Randy Arozarena. Pretty comparable.
Arozerna hit .310 on balls in play, not .381.
 

absintheofmalaise

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The last time I remember the Sox selling very high on a player was when they traded Jose Iglesias in 2013. The Sox received Jake Peavey from Chicago in the deal. Obviously different circumstances, but I would sell high on Duran.
Here's the details from Baseball Almanac.
77144
He had a OPS of .785 and a OPS+ of 115 at the time of the trade. Here are his career stats from B-Ref.
77145
 

Al Zarilla

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Keep him. He might well be one of the brightest spots on the team with his electrifying baserunning, and I'm going to assume he continues to hit and field at the higher level. I know, his BABIP was crazy high last year. If they traded him, I know I'll watch less games. All about me, I know.
 

Fishy1

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I think Duran is probably going to be tough to sell high on unless you find a stupid trade partner, which is not impossible. The BABIP, as has been noted repeatedly, was unsustainably high -- I think he still might be a .340-.360 BABIP guy if he keeps up the HH%, but we'll see. Even with that BABIP he'll still probably hit around .260 because of his K rate.

The frustrating thing is, if he were a better defender, the 100 ops+ or so he's predicted to produce would make him a 3-4 win player. But he's not, so I don't really see a role for him on this team. Now, if he shows up playing a better centerfield in spring training, all bets are off.

I think the hope is that if you can't sell high on him now, you hope he gets off to another hot start so you can bank on it at the deadline next year. Rafaela is the heir apparent if only because his defense provides him such an excellent floor, but you can stash Rafaela in AAA for a month and get an extra year of service time out of him, IIRC. So it makes sense, probably, to hold on to Duran until then. O'Neill in center, Duran in left, Abreu in right is a solid interim plan.
 

CarolinaBeerGuy

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I don't see the point in trading him right now when ownership doesn't seem to be investing in the product on the field anyway. He's one of the few fun guys to watch on this roster. Sure, we could get back a couple decent pieces for Duran right now, but I need a reason to watch the team this year.
 

SouthernBoSox

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I think Duran is probably going to be tough to sell high on unless you find a stupid trade partner, which is not impossible. The BABIP, as has been noted repeatedly, was unsustainably high -- I think he still might be a .340-.360 BABIP guy if he keeps up the HH%, but we'll see. Even with that BABIP he'll still probably hit around .260 because of his K rate.

The frustrating thing is, if he were a better defender, the 100 ops+ or so he's predicted to produce would make him a 3-4 win player. But he's not, so I don't really see a role for him on this team. Now, if he shows up playing a better centerfield in spring training, all bets are off.

I think the hope is that if you can't sell high on him now, you hope he gets off to another hot start so you can bank on it at the deadline next year. Rafaela is the heir apparent if only because his defense provides him such an excellent floor, but you can stash Rafaela in AAA for a month and get an extra year of service time out of him, IIRC. So it makes sense, probably, to hold on to Duran until then. O'Neill in center, Duran in left, Abreu in right is a solid interim plan.
It is important to remember that Duran was an infielder his entire life until switching to the outfield in 2019. He made improvements last year and I don't think it fair to assume that development path has come to an end.
 

chrisfont9

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There is almost no chance another team values him as much as the Sox do. This feels true in a lot of trades across sports, where the people who know the guy (with a muddled statistical case) will like something about him that other teams who don't know him won't choose to assume the best about.

I think we will know who Duran is by, what, July? You guys have covered all the numbers already, so when do we believe them? If he goes a couple months of like .320 BABIP, and he's not doing anything else too flukey, then we will probably have the full picture. Outcomes aside, though, the slight drop in K% and increased BB% are encouraging, and if he can increase his power at all, he's absolutely a keeper.
 

kazuneko

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There is almost no chance another team values him as much as the Sox do. This feels true in a lot of trades across sports, where the people who know the guy (with a muddled statistical case) will like something about him that other teams who don't know him won't choose to assume the best about.
I think we will know who Duran is by, what, July? You guys have covered all the numbers already, so when do we believe them? If he goes a couple months of like .320 BABIP, and he's not doing anything else too flukey, then we will probably have the full picture. Outcomes aside, though, the slight drop in K% and increased BB% are encouraging, and if he can increase his power at all, he's absolutely a keeper.
Offensively I think he is likely to end up a guy with a low to mid 700 OPS who has dynamic speed (assuming his toe injury doesn’t effect this) but who is best kept in LF to limit the risks of his poor glove. That’s probably a 1.4 win player, which is where most of the projection systems seem to place him. Unfortunately, it's a 1.4 win player who blocks LF from being filled by a bigger bat.
I think his biggest upside might be his speed. Could he be a guy who swipes 50-70 bases instead of 20-30, especially under the new rules? He seems fast enough. Also, it’s not clear to me that current projection systems account for his type of “power”. Personally I’ve never seen a guy look faster from home to second. Seems like, at least in his prime, he could be the rare player to league the lead in doubles without much raw power.
 
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chrisfont9

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Offensively I think he is likely to end up a guy with a low to mid 700 OPS who has dynamic speed (assuming his toe injury doesn’t effect this) but who is best kept in LF to limit the risks of his poor glove. That’s probably a 1.4 win player, which is where most of the projection systems seem to place him. Unfortunately, it's a 1.4 win player who blocks LF from being filled by a bigger bat.
I think his biggest upside might be his speed. Could he be a guy who swipes 50-70 bases instead of 20-30, especially under the new rules? He seems fast enough. Also, it’s not clear to me that current projection systems account for his type of “power”. Personally I’ve never seen a guy look faster from home to second. Seems like, at least in his prime, he could be the rare player to league the lead in doubles without much raw power.
In some ways this is perfect because Anthony needs at least another year before we can plug him into LF in Fenway. By then Duran's fit should be clear.

His power is interesting. He's launched some really long shots, but more typically he's hitting low liners -- which is perfect for his speed to get him to second. I wouldn't want him to try to hit more balls in the air, I don't think? Even though that's the goal for most guys. In short, he's just interesting, which is why I am so biased. He might not be better but boy is it fun to watch him.
 

tbrown_01923

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In some ways this is perfect because Anthony needs at least another year before we can plug him into LF in Fenway. By then Duran's fit should be clear.

Folks think Anthony sticks in center, if not center then right. But to your point to a year to audition for Duran with a backfill in the wings
 

Devizier

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I voted you keep him. The main reason being that Duran’s value isn’t particularly high to begin with.

However, there’s a second reason, which is that he could probably be useful as a reserve even if he regresses heavily. He can go opposite field and has good speed, and is at least a willing/capable outfielder, if not a good one.
 

Margo McCready

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Folks think Anthony sticks in center, if not center then right. But to your point to a year to audition for Duran with a backfill in the wings
I love hearing that Anthony can stick in CF because that skill paired with an actual bat in Fenway Park’s RF is huge for the Red Sox.

Good Duran is so much fun to watch so I’d hate to lose that for the 2024 season. However, I’m hoping they’d prioritize keeping Rafaela over him longer term due to the superior defense, more years of control, and the RHH bat that makes more sense paired with the all-LHH trio of Mayer, Anthony and Teel. Looking at it this way, unless a package including Duran nets you an above average SP this winter, it’s probably best to hold on to him for now and hope he builds on his value before revisiting which of he, Abreu or Yoshida to trade when (and if, to be fair) Anthony forces his way into the MLB lineup.

Seeing which of the outfielders earn longer term roles with the team is going to be one of the interesting storylines of 2024.
 

LogansDad

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In some ways this is perfect because Anthony needs at least another year before we can plug him into LF in Fenway. By then Duran's fit should be clear.

His power is interesting. He's launched some really long shots, but more typically he's hitting low liners -- which is perfect for his speed to get him to second. I wouldn't want him to try to hit more balls in the air, I don't think? Even though that's the goal for most guys. In short, he's just interesting, which is why I am so biased. He might not be better but boy is it fun to watch him.
IIRC (I will try to look up a source later) trying to lift the ball more is what got him out of sync in 2021 and 2022. I vaguely remember reading about it and I can't remember if it was his own doing or at the behest of the coaching staff.

I doubt he can fully repeat his numbers from last year, they were nuts, but he is the exact player that the shift and pickoff moves were meant to benefit, so hopefully he has figured out a long term fix.
 

Fishy1

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IIRC (I will try to look up a source later) trying to lift the ball more is what got him out of sync in 2021 and 2022. I vaguely remember reading about it and I can't remember if it was his own doing or at the behest of the coaching staff.

I doubt he can fully repeat his numbers from last year, they were nuts, but he is the exact player that the shift and pickoff moves were meant to benefit, so hopefully he has figured out a long term fix.
Yup. He's got so much upside, especially if the defense somehow makes another leap, as @SouthernBoSox pointed out. And the floor is a guy who hits the ball very hard, can steal a base and play a host of positions. If some other team wants him in a deal that benefits the Sox, so be it, but for now I imagine he's going to get regular time alongside our other outfielders and plenty of opportunity to be a gamechanger.
 

tbrown_01923

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Also no reason rafeala can't start in aaa unless you think doing so will deteriorate his pitch selection. That's the primary outcome that could drag his value down.
 

Fishy1

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A "host of positions" may be a stretch, but if he becomes at least an average defender at two OF positions his value to the team as a rostered player as well as a possible trade chip increase.
Yeah, I'm thinking of his past experience in the infield, but he hasn't played there since all the way back in Lowell, so I'll retract that.
 

kazuneko

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[/QUOTE]
A "host of positions" may be a stretch, but if he becomes at least an average defender at two OF positions his value to the team as a rostered player as well as a possible trade chip increase.
And even that might be a challenge. He’s been a bad defender everywhere he’s played. That’s a big problem for him if his bat slips and he ends up a low .700 OPS type of guy.
 

Cassvt2023

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I'm not sure if it means anything about anything, but the Red Sox record in 2023 was 54-48 when Jarren Duran played and 24-36 when he didn't. Take that for what its worth. He simply has attributes that not many others on the team presently constructed do, and with the rules changes, his game is even more valuable.
 

YTF

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I'm not sure if it means anything about anything, but the Red Sox record in 2023 was 54-48 when Jarren Duran played and 24-36 when he didn't. Take that for what its worth. He simply has attributes that not many others on the team presently constructed do, and with the rules changes, his game is even more valuable.
I don't think that anyone is denying that he has value, I think it's a matter of how much value. IMO, his game would be more valuable if he could play consistently good defense rather than be part of the team's overall defensive struggles.
 

Cassvt2023

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They play 81 games away from Fenway. I think he could be a plus defender in LF in a lot of parks on the road. The issue is, we really have little idea where any of our outfielders will play. Will Rafaela start in triple A, or make the team? CF he is elite. he also plays in the IF. I'm sure he'd be very good in RF at Fenway as well. Duran can play a serviceable CF or and above average LF. Yoshida plays a below average LF. O'Neill has two gold gloves as a predominately LF, but could play the other two OF presumably. Abreu is a bit of an unknown, but has been talked about as mostly a RF, which is a tall order at Fenway. There is a lot to sort out here.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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They play 81 games away from Fenway. I think he could be a plus defender in LF in a lot of parks on the road. The issue is, we really have little idea where any of our outfielders will play. Will Rafaela start in triple A, or make the team? CF he is elite. he also plays in the IF. I'm sure he'd be very good in RF at Fenway as well. Duran can play a serviceable CF or and above average LF. Yoshida plays a below average LF. O'Neill has two gold gloves as a predominately LF, but could play the other two OF presumably. Abreu is a bit of an unknown, but has been talked about as mostly a RF, which is a tall order at Fenway. There is a lot to sort out here.
Exactly.... Yoshida in LF for Fenway games and Duran in LF for games away. Rafaela in CF for most games wtih Duran giving him breaks when Yoshida is in LF.

Starting Rafaela in AAA isn't going to do anything. What more will he learn by beating the snot out of inferior pitching? Haven't we had this conversation about Casas, Pedroia, Devers, Xander, JBJ.... geez. You get to a point in AAA that playing there more doesn't help you at all, it just stalls your development. It's really shit or get off the pot time for him.
 

moondog80

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Exactly.... Yoshida in LF for Fenway games and Duran in LF for games away. Rafaela in CF for most games wtih Duran giving him breaks when Yoshida is in LF.

Starting Rafaela in AAA isn't going to do anything. What more will he learn by beating the snot out of inferior pitching? Haven't we had this conversation about Casas, Pedroia, Devers, Xander, JBJ.... geez. You get to a point in AAA that playing there more doesn't help you at all, it just stalls your development. It's really shit or get off the pot time for him.
Starting Rafaella in AAA buys an extra year of club control.
 

Cassvt2023

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Exactly.... Yoshida in LF for Fenway games and Duran in LF for games away. Rafaela in CF for most games wtih Duran giving him breaks when Yoshida is in LF.

Starting Rafaela in AAA isn't going to do anything. What more will he learn by beating the snot out of inferior pitching? Haven't we had this conversation about Casas, Pedroia, Devers, Xander, JBJ.... geez. You get to a point in AAA that playing there more doesn't help you at all, it just stalls your development. It's really shit or get off the pot time for him.
I agree 100% on Rafaela, and have been advocating for him to make this team as a Super U guy and play all over the field, and play a lot, and hit in the 9 hole. His D alone, and speed on the bases is much needed for this team, especially with the new rules rewarding speed.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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This is a valid point as well @moondog80 . Is May 1st the date that would get them the extra year?
Not sure. I imagine you have to factor in the 83 AB he got last year.
Rafaela accrued 35 service days last season. In order to get an "extra" year of control, he'd have to be in the minors long enough that at the end of the season he has less than 172 service days accrued (172 = 1 full year). There are 186 days from Opening Day to the final day of the season, so he'd need to be optioned for at least 50 days (186-172=14, added to his 35 days, plus one). That means May 16 is the date that would get them the extra year, assuming he started the year in Worcester.
 

SoxInJersey

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Unless someone gives a top of the rotation starter I'm holding on to Duran. He is the definition of speed kills. His ability to turn singles into doubles is a major plus for the Sox offense . If 2023 was his high water mark you have Rafaela and Anthony on their way! Now if he continues to thrive, and the kids coming up behind him are the real deal, then you might just get that top of the rotation starter for him down the road. I would not be in a rush to trade him.
 

CarolinaBeerGuy

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Unless someone gives a top of the rotation starter I'm holding on to Duran. He is the definition of speed kills. His ability to turn singles into doubles is a major plus for the Sox offense . If 2023 was his high water mark you have Rafaela and Anthony on their way! Now if he continues to thrive, and the kids coming up behind him are the real deal, then you might just get that top of the rotation starter for him down the road. I would not be in a rush to trade him.
There is zero chance Duran returns anything close to a top of the rotation starter.
 

zenax

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There is zero chance Duran returns anything close to a top of the rotation starter.
The 2023 Red Sox had seven pitchers who started at least 10 games with only one of them winning more than 7 games (Bello--12-11). Of the five pitchers who made at least 19 starts, only three had winning records and two (Paxton 7-5 & Sale 6-5) are no longer with the team and two (Pivetta and Whitlock) actually pitched slightly more games in relief.

In other words, I don't think that the addition of a prime starter will turn the 2024 club around.

Duran has played with the Red Sox in three seasons: 112 PA, 223 PA, 362 PA, and in each of those three seasons his AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS has improved, not only against all pitchers but also against RHP and LHP.

Keep Duran and play him full-time. If his stats are equal to or better than last season's, then he will have good trade value. The club can either move him to some club that is desperate before trade deadline or keep him and see how the prospects in their farm system develop.

2021
Split PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs RHP 84 .225 .262 .363 .624
vs LHP 28 .185 .179 .259 .438

2022
Split PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs RHP 181 .229 .293 .398 .690
vs LHP 42 .184 .238 .211 .449

2023
Split PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs RHP 313 .296 .349 .491 .841
vs LHP 49 .289 .327 .422 .749


stats from baseball-reference
 

6-5 Sadler

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His component stats have also improved each year with his K% moving from 35.7% -> 28.3% -> 24.9% and his BB% climbing from 3.6% -> 6.3% -> 6.6%. His ISO has also improved from .121 -> .142 -> .187.

On defense, he’s shown a similar improvement in CF (SSS caveat for all this), his UZR/150 has improved from -29 -> -17 -> -1 the past 3 years. His DRS shows a similar trend while OAA is fairly flat. He’s still a below average fielder but there is reason to believe he can continue to improve given his limited experience at the position.

If the team is committed to taking a “see what you have” approach to the pitching staff this year, I see no reason to deviate from that strategy with Duran.
 

ted lepcio

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His component stats have also improved each year with his K% moving from 35.7% -> 28.3% -> 24.9% and his BB% climbing from 3.6% -> 6.3% -> 6.6%. His ISO has also improved from .121 -> .142 -> .187.

On defense, he’s shown a similar improvement in CF (SSS caveat for all this), his UZR/150 has improved from -29 -> -17 -> -1 the past 3 years. His DRS shows a similar trend while OAA is fairly flat. He’s still a below average fielder but there is reason to believe he can continue to improve given his limited experience at the position.

If the team is committed to taking a “see what you have” approach to the pitching staff this year, I see no reason to deviate from that strategy with Duran.
 

brandonchristensen

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I dislike trading him. He was one of the lone bright spots last year and has Ellsbury like game disruption ability.

The team of revolving door players is not one that I care to watch.
 

HfxBob

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If it's the Padres, what about Michael King?

Per BTV Duran's surplus value is 34 and King's is 33.4.
 

HfxBob

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I dislike trading him. He was one of the lone bright spots last year and has Ellsbury like game disruption ability.

The team of revolving door players is not one that I care to watch.
I hear you. I wouldn't want to trade him unless a starting pitcher is coming back.
 

simplicio

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If it's the Padres, what about Michael King?

Per BTV Duran's surplus value is 34 and King's is 33.4.
King is the MLB guy the Padres got in the Soto deal, that would just be trading one current need for another.
 

TrotNixonRing

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I’m not trying to disparage an interesting question and thread, but the devil’s in the details. And no trade partner is looking at last year in a vacuum so I don’t know if you can call it selling high.

Only when we know what the Sox could get in return can the question be answered. I highly doubt the Padres are trading Michael King (mentioned above) for him, but if they were, abso-friggin-lutely.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Why LF? He seemed shockingly cromulent in CF last year after looking dysfunctionally unprofessional the year prior.
Cromulence is relative. He was better than he'd been before but still below average by every measure. I think the idea is that his defensive shortcomings can be blunted in LF, particularly outside of Fenway where the Wall isn't a factor. Also, with Rafaela and O'Neill, there are at least two better CF defenders on the roster.

All that said, if Duran is around, I think he's the starting CF the majority of the time. I think Rafaela is best served playing in Worcester and O'Neill is more likely going to be the starter in RF.
 

pjheff

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Cromulence is relative. He was better than he'd been before but still below average by every measure. I think the idea is that his defensive shortcomings can be blunted in LF, particularly outside of Fenway where the Wall isn't a factor. Also, with Rafaela and O'Neill, there are at least two better CF defenders on the roster.

All that said, if Duran is around, I think he's the starting CF the majority of the time. I think Rafaela is best served playing in Worcester and O'Neill is more likely going to be the starter in RF.
I agree with all of this and would only add that I expect Abreu to get a lot of ABs in a 3-man rotation between CF and RF with Refsnyder as the 5th outfielder and purely platoon bat.
 

SouthernBoSox

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I agree with all of this and would only add that I expect Abreu to get a lot of ABs in a 3-man rotation between CF and RF with Refsnyder as the 5th outfielder and purely platoon bat.
If the Red Sox are serious about fixing the defense (which was one of the worst of all time) you can simply absorb the problems with Rafaela’s bat, put him in center, Durán in left, platoon Abreu and O’Neil with O’Neil serving as rover.

That’s a group that can really go get it.
 

pjheff

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If the Red Sox are serious about fixing the defense (which was one of the worst of all time) you can simply absorb the problems with Rafaela’s bat, put him in center, Durán in left, platoon Abreu and O’Neil with O’Neil serving as rover.

That’s a group that can really go get it.
Unless he forces the issue in ST, I’d prefer to see Rafaela working on the strike zone in Worcester. Defensively, my hope is that Story stabilizes the IF with Grissom being competent at 2B, Casas helping his teammates at 1B, and Devers staying out of his own head.