Lux was a huge prospect for them. I think he was #1 at BP or MLB or somewhere. Lux can play 2b/SS/3b and OF (even played CF 2 years ago). It would take a solid amount to get him.
Should the Red Sox sign Dansby Swanson?
- Thread starter johnlos
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If the question is: Would I rather the Sox have Swanson than what they've currently got? Of course, absolute no brainer yes.
If the question is: Would I like the Sox to sign Swanson to a Bogarts-type deal? Of course....not. No way.
So somewhere in the middle it goes from the first to the second, and I'm not sure where that line is, but I am pretty sure the end result will be the second.
If the question is: Would I like the Sox to sign Swanson to a Bogarts-type deal? Of course....not. No way.
So somewhere in the middle it goes from the first to the second, and I'm not sure where that line is, but I am pretty sure the end result will be the second.
If the Dodgers trade Lux, won’t they likely want players that can help now? Based on BTV, Whitlock would be pretty even value but difficult to see how that helps the Sox. Hard to see a match here.
Don't think the Dodgers want to move Lux, they need more good position players (check out their current OFers besides Mookie), not fewer. If they got Swanson (I doubt it), they would likely move Lux back to 2B and Muncy and Chris Taylor to the OF (I think, I don't really follow them closely).
I think I'm disappointed. I haven't complained much this off-season, but I wanted Swanson, not knowing the #s, b/c every time I saw him he made nifty plays. I surely hope Story's arm is all better.
Basically the Marcus Semien deal, but for a guy two years younger who can still play short. I’m slightly bummed because signing him would have changed the vibe, but ultimately glad it’s not us.
There have been 24 free agent contracts of 5+ years signed in the last two offseasons (so far), and the Sox have given out two of them.
TEX (3)
BOS (2)
CHC (2)
DET (2)
NYM (2)
NYY (2)
PHI (2)
SDP (2)
CHW
COL
LAD
SEA
SFG
STL
TOR
It’s not the years, it’s the guaranteed money. They don’t seem to want to commit to over $200 million guaranteed to any one player. They have signed exactly 1 contract in their ownership history for over $200 million guaranteed, and they took the salary relief that the Dodgers offered them by taking that contract as the most valuable piece in the trade for a franchise cornerstone player.
Unfortunately, if they want to acquire or retain great players in free agency, it’s going to cost them much more than that going forward.
They entered the off-season with no core, glaring holes across the roster, yet were flush with cash to address those holes. As of now, they’ve figured out the bullpen, but still seems like we’ve got major issues everywhere else. It’s not dark yet, but it’s getting there. Starting to feel like 2023 is a bridge year- although several new holes will emerge for 2024 depending on what happens with Devers, Hernandez, Verdugo, Paxton, etc.
(and I think with each and every non-move, you can easily rationalize the decision not to do it. But you do eventually have to do…something, and assume some risk if you are attempting to build a championship quality team).
(and I think with each and every non-move, you can easily rationalize the decision not to do it. But you do eventually have to do…something, and assume some risk if you are attempting to build a championship quality team).
You can rationalize the moves if you're OK with winning 75 games. This is the track the team is on.
7/177 pretty reasonable, especially in this market. Swanson is younger than Xander, non-zero chance the last couple years aren't a total wash (unlike Xander's deal).
Present day value with current interest rates is not bad, maybe he just wanted to be in Chicago and a few teams (including the Sox?) had similar offers.
Swanson I think does have the lowest floor of all the SS, maybe they just thought it was too risky he's only a 2-3 WAR guy.
Present day value with current interest rates is not bad, maybe he just wanted to be in Chicago and a few teams (including the Sox?) had similar offers.
Swanson I think does have the lowest floor of all the SS, maybe they just thought it was too risky he's only a 2-3 WAR guy.
You have to do something if you trying to build just a quality team, never mind championship quality.
Swanson would be fine for 2 years at SS but moving him to 3rd? No. His bat doesn’t work as a corner IFer. That said…. If he was signed and good for 2 years he’d probably be a good trade candidate then.
But…. It’s pretty clear that Story was always Plan B. More likely a deal for a 2B? I don’t like Segura
But…. It’s pretty clear that Story was always Plan B. More likely a deal for a 2B? I don’t like Segura
The Cubs finally dumped Heyward with one year left on that horrible contract. They needed a new albatross. I have no faith in Swanson at all and would have hated the Sox to sign him to that.
I'm not a huge Swanson fan but suddenly turning into a 1-2 WAR guy likely Hayward would have to be like a 10th percentile/floor type outcome for Swanson.
I'd be pretty shocked if the was that bad, especially in the first half of the contract.
Seems like a decent bet to be more of a 3-4 win guy and worth this deal, at least the first few years. Upside still to be more than that.
My problem with Swanson is his stats vs. Rs. The past 4 years:
22: .270/.315/.438
21: .252/.314/.444
He was better in '20 but it was the 60-game season: (.294/.364/.510 in 194 ABs w/ .367 BABIP)
19: .240/.320/.414
His overall wRC+'s ain't exciting either. This is NOT the guy you spend that kind of iron on. I'm hoping we go big after Ohtani, Soto, Machado or whoever else is coming up over the next few years (and signing Devers).
22: .270/.315/.438
21: .252/.314/.444
He was better in '20 but it was the 60-game season: (.294/.364/.510 in 194 ABs w/ .367 BABIP)
19: .240/.320/.414
His overall wRC+'s ain't exciting either. This is NOT the guy you spend that kind of iron on. I'm hoping we go big after Ohtani, Soto, Machado or whoever else is coming up over the next few years (and signing Devers).
A guy I’d like to see the Sox pursue is Jurickson Profar. He’s only going to be 30 next year, and I think you get him to something like a 4yr/$40m type deal. He can play every position on the diamond aside from the battery (or at least has more than 20g at each position I. His career) so he provides insurance at a ton of positions.
Obviously he doesn’t move the needle, but nobody left on the FA market does. He can help account for the inevitable 60+ games Arroyo misses, and slides to 3b in 2024 when Devers is gone while Bloom decides “we can’t possibly give a serious offer to Machado or Devers because it’ll block Blaze Jordan” in 2 or 3 years.
An uninspiring move in an uninspiring off-season, but here we are.
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This seems pretty possible, and of course Bloom was reportedly in on Profar in the 2021 offseason.
He’s another guy (besides Yoshida and Turner) with excellent plate discipline. His slash line last year is a good illustration of how offense has diminished around the league. He hit .243/.331/.391 — and that was good for a 110 wRC+. Having a top-20 walk rate in MLB will do that.
Swanson now 2nd in NL in WAR
View: https://twitter.com/baseball_ref/status/1658170387308371984?s=46&t=umenR-2WWoXV9hGQVNjWGA
View: https://twitter.com/baseball_ref/status/1658170387308371984?s=46&t=umenR-2WWoXV9hGQVNjWGA
Kim has looked pretty weak with the bat. vR he’s hitting .192/.289/.274 (65 wRC+). Gross.
Pablo Reyes can do that.
Pablo Reyes can do that.
Xander is up to 1.8. Turner and Correa have combined for 1.2. Though I'm sure every other month between now and 2097 when their deals start to expire I'll check in and compare.
I hungered greatly for Swanson (and Houck for Kim), but am very content with waiting for Mayer.
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I’m not familiar with the details of bWAR, but these numbers must lean heavily on SSS defensive metrics — HSK has a 690 OPS, for example.
Kim has the highest dWAR in baseball (1.4) with just a 0.6 oWAR. So yeah, there's a heavy defensive component to his overall WAR right now.
WAR can be a fair barometer of value over a full season or career. I'm not sure how telling it is when it's based on just a six week sample.
As many of you know, I'm not a fan of WAR. Here's the information on how bWAR is calculated. It also goes into the positional adjustments. Catcher has the highest at +9. SS is second with +7. IMO, at this point in the season it is no more telling than any other stat is because of the sample size. For those not very familiar with WAR, please remember that a player with around a 2 WAR, translates into a MLB average player at that position. Batting WAR is a better stat to me than the overall WAR stat is because of the defensive component and the baserunning component.
All that being said, Acuna is a fucking stud and a joy to watch play baseball and I'd much rather have Swanson at SS than any options the Sox currently have.
To get a better breakdown of the players individual components you need to look at their individual page on B-Ref. Here's Swanson's.
All that being said, Acuna is a fucking stud and a joy to watch play baseball and I'd much rather have Swanson at SS than any options the Sox currently have.
To get a better breakdown of the players individual components you need to look at their individual page on B-Ref. Here's Swanson's.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2023-batting-leaders.shtml
Swanson is not in the top 10 for BA/OBP/SLG/OPS. . . He's #6 in walks and #10 in doubles.
That's an interesting mark for Xander. His defensive marks are terrific, FWIW.
He's hitting .195/.320/.310 over 103 PA since April 18, as I'm sure most people here are aware.
I was not. That's nuts - he got off to such a hot start. Looking at splits, he can't hit LHP at all (.225/.291/.327 on the year). That's never been the case. I wonder what happened.
Hmm ... Suffering succotash, Sammy. Maybe it's slightly salty snacks. Or sickly shortstop syndrome. Or maybe sliders swooping sideways. Some satisfactory suggestions?
Whatever “plan” level it is…. It’s generally been working out pretty well. Having a replacement level Plan B is impressive on its own. I know we all love “depth” talent but how available are good quality depth players? The fact that the middle infield has been playing as well as it has in aggregate thus far is, to me, something we have to acknowledge as good on Bloom
The Red Sox middle infield hasn't been playing well. Like, at all.
Red Sox middle infielders are 24th in the league in OPS, 24th in wOBA, and, 26th in wRC+. Defensively, Red Sox shortstops lead the league in errors and are 24th in outs above average, while the second basemen are 2nd in errors and 20th in OAA.
How anyone could suggest that Bloom did a good job with this middle infield is . . . wow.
Bloom did a good job with the middle infield.
The middle infield is a stopgap until Story returns. He'll be paired with Arroyo or Mondesi or whomever looks best.
As of today, Sox 2B are by bWAR in the middle of the AL pack with a slightly negative value (identical to NYY and DET). Meanwhile, we're lower at SS than average, 11th out of 15th, mostly due to Enrique Hernandez. And there one has to shrug. If he upticks to his healthy career-average-ish self at the plate, he'll bring more value to the SS position.
For a stopgap, MI, that's pretty good. (Especially considering this is something of a stopgap for a stopgap, given Yu Chang's and Arroyo's injuries.)
Bloom screwed up bigtime by not finding a better 5th-string SS than Pablo Reyes and his 176 OPS+.
He should have outbid the Cubs and their 7-year offer to sign Swanson to be our SS for 4 months. Problem solved!
He should have outbid the Cubs and their 7-year offer to sign Swanson to be our SS for 4 months. Problem solved!