This has been my take as well. They waited out Story's deal and got a reasonable contract out of it, and I think Swanson compares favorably if they get a similar AAV. If they have to add a few years, so be it. They both have high floors and the market is the market.
Funny just looked up Story's contract too. Which most people considered a good deal and I still am optimistic about long-term unlike ^. He makes a good point about starting pitching though. Unlike say PHI we don't have 3 top arms coming through the pipeline (it's Bello and that's it) so can't rely on the system there.
What I gather is that his arm is no longer SS caliber. I haven't seen this for myself, but it seems to be a consensus.
“His arm strength, which was measured at 82.1 mph on average this year, is below average for the position.”
I wonder about these stats. Do they discard plays that were easy and a soft throw was best? Xander does that a lot.
Story ranked 61st out of 70 2nd basemen with a max velocity of 79.5mph. Bogaerts was 39th out of 50 shortstops with a max velocity of 86.6mph. For comparison, Correa was 4th at 95mph.
Love this.
I agree with this post. However, last night I dreamed I was at a Red Sox game and the crowd was chanting: Sign Iggy, Sign Iggy!
Chaim’s coveted Surplus Value = Gravy
Unless the market has completely evaporated, Swanson does. He gets twice that guaranteed on a longer deal.
Pitchers are different. And Correa hasn't missed time due to his back since 2019 so maybe that's been resolved. He's been healthy last three seasons. 58 of 60 games in 2020 COVID season (only missed 2 games after fouling ball off his ankle), 148 games in 2021 (missed a little time for health and safety protocols), and 136 games in 2022 (IL stint for fouling a ball of his finger).
Not advocating Story at SS, but I seem to recall David Eckstein doing fine with that small arm of his. His throws were weakish but they got there in time.
There are a couple of issues. Story's drop in velocity is due to repeated/ongoing injuries while Swanson has played all but 4 games over the last three years. So, putting Story at shortstop is a problem if: he re-injures himself, his velocity continues to drop as it has over the last few years, or he cannot adapt/compensate for the drop in velocity. And, regardless the Sox would be losing a fantastic defensive second baseman, who would likely be replaced by a less effective defender at a time when that position matters more due to eliminating the shift.
My uneducated hunch is the same, with the caveat there is probably some arm strength threshold a SS has to meet.
