Return of the Jedi?

[Minneapolis Millers]

It's also possible, I suppose, that this is an intentional, coordinated leak that (a) helps the Sox by telling other pitchers that the team are moving forward, so if you want to expedite your consideration of their offer, you might want to do so now (not necessarily aimed at Lester, but the Sox are talking with multiple pitchers acc to BC), and (b) does Masterson a favor by telling other teams that the Sox are serious, so up your bids and/or prioritize JM or you might lose him. 
 
A "you scratch our back" thing for a former, well-liked player.  You never know.  It is misinformation season, after all.

 

[koufax37]

 
The problem is not just flyballs. He absolutely gets scorched by LHH. Line drives, HR's, hard-hit grounders past infielders, etc. If you looks at some of the at bats, he gets behind in counts because he junks his slider or change-up to the outside of the plate hoping to pick up called strikes or get a weak swing. Then he's forced to throw his fastball to pick up a strike which they get a real nice look at from his arm angle. When he could hump it up in the zone at 95+ with decent command, this was less of an issue. At 89-90...any LHH is going to make serious contact on it.

 
If he pitches like he did in 2014 then he is relatively useless and would not be worth a contract offer.  I think there is probably a fair degree of reasonable hope for optimism on two main fronts:
 
1) He had a lot of injuries to battle through, and all of them were likely the intermediate type that pitchers pitch through without being 100%, and consequently did not just impact his time on the DL and away from the mound, but also conditioned his performance on the mound.  With his inherent weakness against LHB, I would expect that a minor injury that saps a little of his command, movement, velocity would manifest itself more in his splits against lefties, where his two main advantages against righties: slider movement and general arm angle, would be less impacted.
 
2) Some element of Farrell knowing him and being able to work with him.  Don't underestimate the impact of this in the decision and hopefully the outcome.  Without JF Lester looked lost, and with him back he won a World Series then established himself as a $150M player.  Certainly not complete causality, but not something I would dismiss too quickly.
 
I definitely hesitate to go two years or bigger dollars because I think there is a lot of uncertainty, but I'm fairly optimistic that these two factors could make him a valuable pitcher again and would happily roll the dice on a one year deal to be a #4.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Alex Speier @alexspeier
Justin Masterson is looking for 1-yr free agent deal to rebuild value. Red Sox have made 1-yr offer. His market: fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/…

 

[Harry Hooper]

I'm thinking that bringing in Masterson means Kelly could be involved in another potential deal. Kelly has value as a low cost MLB ready pitcher and might be more attractive in a package than an unknown talent. IMO the Sox still deal for someone to fill the top two slots in the rotation and this new development may be with the thought of Buch, Masterson and one of the "kids" rounding out the rotation.

 
 
All fine and good as long as neither Buchholz nor Masterson is being thought of as filling the #1 & #2 slots.

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

I'm thinking that bringing in Masterson means Kelly could be involved in another potential deal. Kelly has value as a low cost MLB ready pitcher and might be more attractive in a package than an unknown talent. IMO the Sox still deal for someone to fill the top two slots in the rotation and this new development may be with the thought of Buch, Masterson and one of the "kids" rounding out the rotation.

I'd be really surprised if the Red Sox dealt Kelly.  Sounds like Farrell really likes him, pushed for him in Lackey deal.  and he's young, cost-controlled as you say--that has value to the Sox too

 

[Sprowl]

Also, missed thread name opportunity - "Return of the Jedi?"

Done.

 

[67WasBest]

I'd be really surprised if the Red Sox dealt Kelly.  Sounds like Farrell really likes him, pushed for him in Lackey deal.  and he's young, cost-controlled as you say--that has value to the Sox too

I could see them bundling Kelly to upgrade his rotation slot, but only for another cost controlled kid.

 

[5050HindSight]

Masterson turned down $51M/3Y deal with the Indians last year? Oops!

 

[Laser Show]

Done.

Glad to be of service

 

[YTF]

I'd rather they kept Kelly for the reasons mentioned above, but perhaps including him in a package helps the cause by taking one of the prospects off the board. He's established, a lower risk than an "unknown" and still had for little money.

 

[The Boomer]

Bring back Anibal Sanchez!  Even without Lester, the Red Sox would have a 4/5 homegrown rotation.

 

[BrazilianSoxFan]

Done.

 
For a second I thought the Sox had re-acquired Jed Lowrie...

 

[Niastri]

 
The problem is that he makes every lefty look like Chris Davis. He simply does not have the stuff to get LHH out without significant improvements in command and/or the return of plus velocity on his 4 seam fastball. 

With the giant right field in Fenway, along with what should be a very good defensive outfield, the Sox may believe that Masterson will be better for us than most other teams. I think he would be a great pickup for the Sox.

If he has a great year, they give him a QO and get a pick out of his one good year.

 

[Rasputin]

I see four situations where this could make sense.
 
1) There's a trade the Sox are confident they can make that will involve either Buchholz or Kelly.
 
2) The Sox think it's likely they are not going to be able to get two pitchers better than Kelly and just want to make sure they get someone so they don't have to rely on kids in two rotation spots.
 
3) The Sox think they're going to be trading both Webster and RDLR.
 
4) The Sox are already convinced Webster and RDLR are bullpen arms.
 
I don't think any of these are terribly likely.
 
The other option is that the Sox arejust trying to stockpile talent, and they think that they're buying low on Jedi with the intention of selling high later, and while there's a level at which that makes sense, I'm not sure it's this one.

 

[KillerBs]

It would also seem to be premised on the notion that Justin Masterson is not now a very bad big league pitcher, which is the part of the equation I am struggling with.   

 

[mauf]

Do people still think we're getting two elite free-agent SPs after the Hanley and Panda signings? I thought it was a given that that ship had sailed.
 
I still think they will bring in two SPs from outside the organization, but one will have to be a trade target or a bargain-bin FA. Hence, the interest in Masterson.

 

[Rasputin]

Do people still think we're getting two elite free-agent SPs after the Hanley and Panda signings? I thought it was a given that that ship had sailed.
 
I still think they will bring in two SPs from outside the organization, but one will have to be a trade target or a bargain-bin FA. Hence, the interest in Masterson.

 
"Elite" is a pretty key word there. We need to bring in two pitchers who are better than Joe Kelly and it would be very nice if one of them is elite.
 
There's a pretty big difference between Justin Masterson and elite.

 

[chawson]

Masterson posted a 3.60 FIP between 2011 and 2013, pitching in front of a quite shitty Indians defense. 
 
His ratios over that period are on par with C.J. Wilson, Matt Garza, and Alex Cobb. (The latter in particular had very very similar ratios.) 
 
He's only going to be 30 on opening day. If the Sox think he's healthy after last season, it could be good.

 

[foulkehampshire]

Masterson posted a 3.60 FIP between 2011 and 2013, pitching in front of a quite shitty Indians defense. 
 

 
I don't think that FIP is entirely indicative of Masterson, it's so low because the guy generates an obscene amount ground-balls from his sinker/slider combo against RHH. There's must be another reason he regularly under-performs his FIP besides crappy defense, and it has to do with the aforementioned platoon issues.  He's had consistently poor left-on-base averages (LOB%) outside of 2011 and 2013, which coincided with his best years. 

 

[swingin val]

 
"Elite" is a pretty key word there. We need to bring in two pitchers who are better than Joe Kelly and it would be very nice if one of them is elite.
 
There's a pretty big difference between Justin Masterson and elite.

Or the Sox believe enough in Buchholz or Kelly to be better than the 2014 version of Kelly.

 

[Hoplite]

Do people still think we're getting two elite free-agent SPs after the Hanley and Panda signings? I thought it was a given that that ship had sailed.
 
I still think they will bring in two SPs from outside the organization, but one will have to be a trade target or a bargain-bin FA. Hence, the interest in Masterson.

 
I suppose that depends on your idea of "elite" but one Lester type and one Latos type doesn't seem out of the question. Assuming we trade Cespedes for Latos, and Lester costs $25 million per year, that would put us roughly $9 million over the luxury tax threshold with the need to add a backup catcher and a lefthanded reliever. That doesn't set aside $5 million for a mid-season trade, but we also have Victorino and his $13 million in yearly salary on the roster. He could be a mid-season salary dump if he proves healthy and Castillo and Betts are playing well.

 

[mauf]

 
I suppose that depends on your idea of "elite" but one Lester type and one Latos type doesn't seem out of the question. Assuming we trade Cespedes for Latos, and Lester costs $25 million per year, that would put us roughly $9 million over the luxury tax threshold with the need to add a backup catcher and a lefthanded reliever. That doesn't set aside $5 million for a mid-season trade, but we also have Victorino and his $13 million in yearly salary on the roster. He could be a mid-season salary dump if he proves healthy and Castillo and Betts are playing well.

 
You'll be able to count the number of SPs who are traded this winter and are better than Masterson on one hand, and one of those trades has already happened. [SIZE=14.3999996185303px]What's the plan B if the Reds decide not to trade Latos, or hold out for a guy like Owens or Swihart in addition to Cespedes? [/SIZE]
 
And if you start the season over the CBT threshold, you had best be prepared to pay the tax -- finding someone to take on salary in the middle of the season is tough, even if you're lucky enough to be in a position where someone might one of your expendable-but-highly-paid guys.
 
The advantage of signing Masterson is that you don't risk either ending up empty-handed or overpaying this year's equivalent of Kyle Lohse (i.e., the guy who is still waiting for an offer in March). I understand why some people don't like it; I don't understand why some folks here (not necessarily you) think this is some bizarre, inexplicable move by the FO.

 

[mauf]

Why would they need to set aside $5M for a mid season trade? That was a consideration when they were trying to stay under the tax in previous years. If they're already blowing by it, I can't foresee them worrying about adding someone mid year if they think he would be a difference maker.

 
I'm not convinced they're blowing through the threshold -- they need to say that so they aren't completely over a barrel if they need to move on their preferred FAs before a Cespedes trade comes together.

 

[chrisfont9]

Ouch. Francona really, really liked Masterson. Terry is a smart guy with a lot of patience, I think. For him to conclude this about Justin, not good. Still, how does sub-par mental approach/[SIZE=13.63636302948px]desire [/SIZE]lead to a considerable loss of velocity?

Can we drill down deeper on this? I am looking around and the most recent quote I can find is this:
 

 

Francona was Boston's manager when Masterson was dealt to Cleveland. Masterson went 48-61 with Cleveland.


"The hug was a little longer than normal," Francona said. "We may part teams, but my admiration for him isn't parting."

 

 

I've seen another comment about whether he's ready to "attack the zone," which may be a confidence/approach thing, and some whisper about lack thereof may have been about whatever Tito was trying to do to psych up Masterson. Who knows? Anyway, I think this is an intriguing possibility and am cautious about taking the "Francona didn't like him" thing too far. Might be something there but it could be overblown or nonexistent too.

 

[Hoplite]

Why would they need to set aside $5M for a mid season trade? That was a consideration when they were trying to stay under the tax in previous years. If they're already blowing by it, I can't foresee them worrying about adding someone mid year if they think he would be a difference maker.

 
They wouldn't, that's why I didn't set it aside.
 

 
You'll be able to count the number of SPs who are traded this winter and are better than Masterson on one hand, and one of those trades has already happened. [SIZE=14.3999996185303px]What's the plan B if the Reds decide not to trade Latos, or hold out for a guy like Owens or Swihart in addition to Cespedes? [/SIZE]
 
And if you start the season over the CBT threshold, you had best be prepared to pay the tax -- finding someone to take on salary in the middle of the season is tough, even if you're lucky enough to be in a position where someone might one of your expendable-but-highly-paid guys.
 
The advantage of signing Masterson is that you don't risk either ending up empty-handed or overpaying this year's equivalent of Kyle Lohse (i.e., the guy who is still waiting for an offer in March). I understand why some people don't like it; I don't understand why some folks here (not necessarily you) think this is some bizarre, inexplicable move by the FO.

 
It's hard to say without being a member of the front office. Cherington just said that they've talked about and/or are working on "15-20 different starting pitcher scenarios." The Red Sox appear to match up well with the Reds on Latos or Bailey, they appear to match up well with the Nationals on Fister or Zimmerman. I'm sure there are other starting pitchers available that haven't been floated in rumors. Or if the Red Sox really can't work out a trade for someone they could sign one Scherzer/Lester/Shields type and two McCarthy/Liriano/Masterson/Santana types. Based on the comments that John Henry has made, the relatively minor luxury tax they would incur, all the salary they have coming off the books next year, and the cost controlled prospects they have, I don't think they'd have much of an issue with going over the luxury tax threshold next year.
 
I agree that making Masterson a contract offer is not a bizarre move. His numbers over the last few seasons are pretty similar to McCarthy, Liriano and Santana. And for all we know, the Red Sox offered him a 1 year/$5 million contract or they expect him to be their #3 or #4 starter.

 

[mauf]

I'm not an expert, but I think you take a haircut on shared revenues, so it's not just the 25% tax on the salary in excess of the cap. At least, that's what I thought -- I could be all wet.
 
Needless to say, the FO is a lot more likely to go $10mm over the cap if it costs them $2.5mm than if it costs them, say, $20mm.

 

[67WasBest]

Estimated $20M loss on TV revenue for going over 2 years in a row

 

[bombdiggz]

if the Red Sox really can't work out a trade for someone they could sign one Scherzer/Lester/Shields type and two McCarthy/Liriano/Masterson/Santana types. Based on the comments that John Henry has made, the relatively minor luxury tax they would incur, all the salary they have coming off the books next year, and the cost controlled prospects they have, I don't think they'd have much of an issue with going over the luxury tax threshold next year.

I've seen something similar proposed ad nauseum this offseason. Why would the Red Sox sign three pitchers this offseason. They have Webster and RDLR who really need a shot to start this year (certainly, at least one of them does). There is depth behind them (Workman, Ranuado, Barnes, Wright). Owens could be ready by summer. If you won't give a kid a shot at the fifth spot in the rotation, where do you trust the cost controlled prospects to play? SS, CF, and C?

And I don't mean to pick on Hoplite, if you want the Red Sox to pick up three starters, Why? how many MLB ready arms do we need before we feel comfortable one will step up?

 

[Hoplite]

Yeah, I'm definitely not an expert either. But if theoretically the Red Sox signed Jon Lester for $25 million a year, made a trade centered around Cespedes for Latos, signed Justin Masterson to a one year/$12 million deal, signed David Ross to a one year/$2 million deal and did the rumor of the day trade of Sean Coyle for Antonio Bastardo, my human services degree math thinks that would put them at roughly $212 million in salary for luxury tax purposes. Because they would be a first time "offender", the $23 million that they would be over the luxury tax threshold would be taxed at 17.5% for a $4,025,000 penalty. And according to my understanding of the most recent CBA, teams do not have to refund their revenue sharing funds unless they're over the luxury tax for two or more years in a row.
 

 
 
The revenue sharing funds that would have been distributed to the disqualified Clubs will be refunded to the payor Clubs, except that payor Clubs that have exceeded the CBT threshold two or more consecutive times will forfeit some or all of their refund.

 
I think that's why John Henry's saying stuff like, "The way it's structured we can blow through for one year." http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/11/25/john-henry-isnt-averse-to-blowing-through-luxury-tax-threshold-hopeful-about-jon-lester-agreement/
 
EDIT:
 
 

I've seen something similar proposed ad nauseum this offseason. Why would the Red Sox sign three pitchers this offseason. They have Webster and RDLR who really need a shot to start this year (certainly, at least one of them does). There is depth behind them (Workman, Ranuado, Barnes, Wright). Owens could be ready by summer. If you won't give a kid a shot at the fifth spot in the rotation, where do you trust the cost controlled prospects to play? SS, CF, and C?

And I don't mean to pick on Hoplite, if you want the Red Sox to pick up three starters, Why? how many MLB ready arms do we need before we feel comfortable one will step up?

 

 
I think that's a valid question. But if I was the front office, I would not be expecting to get a full year of starts out of Buchholz, Kelly (made a career high 17 starts last year) or someone like McCarthy. Someone will inevitably get hurt, that's why teams tend to use something like 7-10 starters a year on average. I would also add that both Kelly and Workman have pitched significantly better out of the bullpen in their major league careers than they have out of the rotation. From what I've read, scouts are also undecided on whether guys like RDLR, Ranaudo, Webster and Barnes are future starting pitchers or relievers.

 

[mauf]

I've seen something similar proposed ad nauseum this offseason. Why would the Red Sox sign three pitchers this offseason. They have Webster and RDLR who really need a shot to start this year (certainly, at least one of them does). There is depth behind them (Workman, Ranuado, Barnes, Wright). Owens could be ready by summer. If you won't give a kid a shot at the fifth spot in the rotation, where do you trust the cost controlled prospects to play? SS, CF, and C?

And I don't mean to pick on Hoplite, if you want the Red Sox to pick up three starters, Why? how many MLB ready arms do we need before we feel comfortable one will step up?

 
Rightly or not, Workman is widely believed to be headed for the bullpen. With annual salaries for free-agent RPs approaching eight figures, that's not necessarily a bad decision.
 
I disagree that we have a slew of other "MLB ready arms" -- RDLR is the only one I would confidently predict would be better than replacement level as a starter. Even if you consider him a lock for the rotation, and you assume everyone is healthy come April, you need two SPs from outside the organization to avoid having Webster or Ranaudo in the rotation. And that's with Kelly in the #4 spot, which isn't exactly rock solid, and Buchholz tentatively penciled into the #2 spot, which is a gamble.

 

[bombdiggz]

Not 1 to 2. The fifth spot is all I'm asking for. Many should start in Pawtucket, and no that isn't travesty at all. You do need 7-10 pitchers to get through a year. Maufman, totally agree on Workman being more destined to the pen. and, I would agree cost controlled bullpen help is a good thing. My point is that there are several options to plug in that fifth spot. If you don't give the kids an opportunity, they'll get it eventually, it just won't be with us. Rudy, sometimes it does take a kid, more than a quarter of a season to establish themselves. See, Mike Trout. Mind you crazy bastards, I'm not trying to say that RDLR is going to be the pitching version of Trout. A Pedro 2.0. Just that even the best prospects need an opportunity to succeed.

But, I do take it that you both think we should acquire three pitchers for the rotation?

 

[mauf]

But, I do take it that you both think we should acquire three pitchers for the rotation?

 
Not really. I think TBD/Buchholz/TBD/Kelly/RDLR is good enough, with the offensive upgrades they've made.
 
That's counting on everyone staying healthy and RDLR not being a train wreck, but you're not going to go from worst to first without taking chances here and there.

 

[Plympton91]

Ouch. Francona really, really liked Masterson. Terry is a smart guy with a lot of patience, I think. For him to conclude this about Justin, not good. Still, how does sub-par mental approach/desire lead to a considerable loss of velocity?

While I agree in general with that assessment of Francona, I think he has a blind spot about how much players should be willing to do when they're injured. He was a guy who had to play hurt to play at all, and I think he projects that onto every player he coaches without admitting to himself just how much a shell of himself he was as those injuries piled up. Probably getting an all-time historic performance from a debilitated Curt Schilling in 2004 likely cemented that misanalysis of the relationship between injury and likely performance. So, I'd take his assessment of Masterson last year with a grain of salt.

 

[soxhop411]

Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick 8m8 minutes ago
Justin Masterson is getting close on a deal with unspecified team, said a source at winter meetings.

 

[mBiferi]

https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/543086364774764546
 
 
So does this set our rotation? Or Miley/Kelly are getting traded for a #1?

 

[ItOnceWasMyLife]

The Inn is full?
 
Masterson
Kelly
Porcello
Buchholz
Miley
 
????

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Great - we have added a Number 8 starter/reclamation project .. there goes another 100 innings that should go to Owens or Rodriguez .. not impressed

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Great - we have added a Number 8 starter/reclamation project .. there goes another 100 innings that should go to Owens or Rodriguez .. not impressed

 
Neither Owens or Rodriguez were going to be significant contributors in 2015.  This allows them to move at their own pace and force themselves into the big leagues instead of being rushed into spot duty too soon.
 
Let's keep in mind that both Masterson and Porcello are only signed through this season.  Plenty of chance for the kids to break in and take a rotation spot in 2016.

 

[Kid T]

The Inn is full?
 
Masterson
Kelly
Porcello
Buchholz
Miley
 
????

 
 
No assurance that Masterson/Kelly/Buchholz can stay healthy through the whole season.  Also wouldn't rule out Kelly and Masterson being shuffled to swing/LR should they prove ineffective.