Replacing a great QB (SB era)

8slim · Nov 5, 2023

Appreciate the work here.

I’d frame this a bit differently: put aside the replacement, it’s just very very very difficult to find an all-timer at QB.

However, it is possible to have success as a franchise without an all timer at QB. Not 6 Super Bowls. Maybe just getting to a SB.

Here are some “recent” SB losing QBs:

Jimmy G
Goff
Matt Ryan
Can Newton
Kaepernick
Rex Grossman
McNabb
Jake Delhomme

Some of these guys had a few good (or very good years) but none were anything resembling all timers.

I’m not obsessed with “replacing” Brady. That’s next to impossible. We just need to find a guy who’s pretty good, for a couple few years. That’s difficult, but not nearly as daunting.

Devizier · Nov 6, 2023

8slim said:
Appreciate the work here.

I’d frame this a bit differently: put aside the replacement, it’s just very very very difficult to find an all-timer at QB.

Doubly so in the absence of high draft picks, typical of what you’d expect when you most recently rostered one of the best quarterbacks of all time.

Traut · Nov 6, 2023

Devizier said:
Doubly so in the absence of high draft picks, typical of what you’d expect when you most recently rostered one of the best quarterbacks of all time.

Even if you look at Rodgers or Young as examples of teams using high draft picks and waiting on guys to develop - the last 5 years of QBs, the only guys the Patriots could have had were Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts.

Even at the top, the only guys drafted since 2018 worth a damn are Allen, Jackson, Lawrence, Hurts, Tua, and Purdy.

1st round busts the last 5 years: Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Murray, Jones, Haskins, Love, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Jones, Pickett.

The jury is still out on Herbert and the 2023 NFL Draft. With all the talent evaluators, metrics, scouting, video, and training, teams are whiffing on 2/3rds of first-round QB draft picks. I think it is easy to underestimate the role luck plays in all of this.

nolasoxfan · Nov 6, 2023

Nice work, but I think you are downplaying the success of some of the players listed.

For example, Bert Jones was beyond ‘solid.‘ Shit, the guy was the 1976 Offensive Player of the Year and NFL MVP. He also led the Colts to 3 consecutive AFC East divisional titles, and his career was only derailed by some major shoulder injuries—that’s mostly bad luck. Is he remembered as “Johnny Football?” No, but the dude was beyond ‘solid.’

rodderick · Nov 6, 2023

Traut said:
Even if you look at Rodgers or Young as examples of teams using high draft picks and waiting on guys to develop - the last 5 years of QBs, the only guys the Patriots could have had were Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts.

Even at the top, the only guys drafted since 2018 worth a damn are Allen, Jackson, Lawrence, Hurts, Tua, and Purdy.

1st round busts the last 5 years: Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Murray, Jones, Haskins, Love, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Jones, Pickett.

The jury is still out on Herbert and the 2023 NFL Draft. With all the talent evaluators, metrics, scouting, video, and training, teams are whiffing on 2/3rds of first-round QB draft picks. I think it is easy to underestimate the role luck plays in all of this.

How so? He's a great quarterback.

dirtynine · Nov 6, 2023

All well and good, I’m not sure what the utility of the conversation is. If the larger point is we should be happy waiting for another HOF QB, ok… no problem. If it’s, we should be happy waiting around to have a QB that can keep the team competitive, well, no. I would like to consider the Patriots an above-average franchise, so I’m holding them to a higher standard than whatever the historical precedent is.

tims4wins · Nov 6, 2023

My takeaway is that there is a huge luck element that goes into this, in terms of the combination of having a high pick + having the right kind of QBs available in the draft + picking the right guy. It's not like Josh Allen, Mahomes, or Herbert were picked in the top 5 (or Lamar). So it doesn't take a full tank to get a franchise guy. You just have to pick the right guy when you have your chance. It seemed like the Pats had an opportunity in 2021, but it looks like history will prove that to be a really bad QB class aside from Lawrence. We'll see where they end up picking in 2024, and we'll also see how good guys like Williams and Maye end up being. It's all a crapshoot. Which is why you need to pick QBs basically every other year.

rodderick · Nov 6, 2023

BaseballJones said:
I know we all love Lawrence, and CLEARLY he has better tools than Mac. Like, CLEARLY.

But...here's their career data.

Jones: 18-22, 66.1% completions, 6.8 y/a, 46 td (3.6%), 33 int (2.6%), 86.9 rating
Lawrence: 18-24, 63.9% completions, 6.6 y/a, 46 td (3.2%), 29 int (2.0%), 85.3 rating

It's also clear that he has far better weapons than Mac. I think we'd all take Etienne, Kirk, Ridley, and Engram over what the Pats have.

BUT....also....Lawrence is trending UP after a rough rookie year, and Mac is trending DOWN after a pretty good rookie year. I'm not claiming that I'd rather have Mac than Lawrence. No, no, no. Just that so far in their careers, it's shockingly similar actual on-field production.

But yes to your larger point, there's a lot of luck involved. You have to suck at just the right time when a great QB is available to get, and you have to actually get that guy.

This is why teams do (and why the Pats need to) take multiple bites of that apple. They need to keep trying til they get it right. If they use their 1st rounder on Maye this year, great. If they can't get him or Williams and end up drafting an elite OT or WR in the first and then a guy like Penix in the second, fine. They can't just wait til the 7th round and get the next guy out of Akron to back up Mac Jones.

It's not shockingly similar production at all. Trevor Lawrence was asked to throw the ball a ton and be the main driver of offense for a putrid team with the worst coaching staff of the past two decades and no weapons. Mac Jones was playing under Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick with a top 3 defense in EPA/Play while being asked to do very little. Their past two years of production are basically comparing a guy who's been a top 6-8 QB in football with one who's been bottom 5. If your rookie numbers for a terrible team screw the overall stats that much, I'm more than comfortable in throwing them out. Was anyone bringing up 1998 to talk about 2000 Peyton?

tims4wins · Nov 6, 2023

rodderick said:
It's not shockingly similar production at all. Trevor Lawrence was asked to throw the ball a ton and be the main driver of offense for a putrid team with the worst coaching staff of the past two decades and no weapons. Mac Jones was playing under Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick with a top 3 defense in EPA/Play while being asked to do very little. Their past two years of production are basically comparing a guy who's been a top 6-8 QB in football with one who's been bottom 5. If your rookie numbers for a terrible team screw the overall stats that much, I'm more than comfortable in throwing them out. Was anyone bringing up 1998 to talk about 2000 Peyton?

Exactly, using their career stats is pointless and irrelevant. All Pats fans are ready to move on from Mac; no Jags fans would move on from Lawrence. I posted this in the Mac thread prior to yesterday's game:

But there's been a huge gap since late 2021.

Lawrence last 26 games:
595-887 (67.1%)
6,271 yards (7.07 Y/A)
36 TD
12 INT
95.3 rating
114 rushes for 524 yards
16-10 record

Mac last 26 games:
543-839 (64.7%)
5,570 yards (6.64 Y/A)
29 TD
24 INT
83.3 rating
79 rushes for 231 yards
9-17 record

And 6 of those Mac TDs game in the final four games of 2021.

Mac has thrown for 23 TDs in his last 22 games.

rodderick · Nov 6, 2023

tims4wins said:
Exactly, using their career stats is pointless and irrelevant. All Pats fans are ready to move on from Mac; no Jags fans would move on from Lawrence. I posted this in the Mac thread prior to yesterday's game:

But there's been a huge gap since late 2021.

Lawrence last 26 games:
595-887 (67.1%)
6,271 yards (7.07 Y/A)
36 TD
12 INT
95.3 rating
114 rushes for 524 yards
16-10 record

Mac last 26 games:
543-839 (64.7%)
5,570 yards (6.64 Y/A)
29 TD
24 INT
83.3 rating
79 rushes for 231 yards
9-17 record

And 6 of those Mac TDs game in the final four games of 2021.

Mac has thrown for 23 TDs in his last 22 games.

It's honestly staggering that Lawrence has already exceeded Mac's career ANY/A halfway through year 3 considering the difference in how their rookie years went. They shouldn't be comparable stat wise at all at this point.

tims4wins · Nov 6, 2023

BaseballJones said:
Last 2 seasons:

- Lawrence (15-10), 66.9%, 6,048 yds, 34 td, 12 int, 94.7 rating
- Cousins (17-8), 67.1%, 6,878 yds, 47 td, 19 int, 96.2 rating
- Mahomes (21-5), 67.6%, 7,692 yds, 58 td, 20 int, 102.3 rating
- Hurts (22-2), 67.5%, 6,048 yds, 37 td, 14 int, 99.7 rating (plus 1,076 rush yds and 20 rush TD)
- Tagoviola (14-8), 66.8%, 6,157 yds, 44 td, 15 int, 105.9 rating
- Allen (18-7), 66.2%, 6,706 yds, 53 td, 23 int, 97.7 rating (plus 995 rush yds and 13 rush TD)
- Herbert (13-11), 68.3%, 6,629 yds, 38 td, 14 int, 95.3 rating
- Jackson (15-6), 66.3%, 4,196 yds, 26 td, 10 int, 95.3 rating (plus 1,204 rush yds and 8 rush TD)
- Prescott (13-7), 67.8%, 4,871 yds, 36 td, 20 int, 95.0 rating
- Burrow (17-7), 67.8%, 6,336 yds, 47 td, 16 int, 97.3 rating
- Goff (15-10), 66.1%, 6,612 yds, 41 td, 12 int, 98.4 rating
- Smith (14-11), 68.4%, 6,084 yds, 39 td, 18 int, 96.4 rating
- Purdy (10-3), 67.8%, 3,407 yds, 25 td, 9 int, 106.2 rating

I'd put Lawrence at about #10, but unfortunately for Pats fans, I'd put Mac at about #32.

I don't think anyone is taking Prescott, Goff, Smith, Purdy, or Cousins over Lawrence. Which puts him 8th at worst IMO.

dirtynine · Nov 6, 2023

BaseballJones said:
The point is a depressing one. Not that we should be "happy" waiting for another great QB. Just that we shouldn't have too high hopes/expectations that they'll find that GUY soon. It usually takes quite a while, is the unfortunate point in all this. We can hope for better, but we should buckle up for a bumpy ride for a few more years anyway.

I don't need THE guy. I'd like to win a playoff game within the next 3 seasons. I don't think that's an unreasonable expectation. If that takes X QB to do it, so be it. I don't care if it's Brady II. Bonus points if they're fun to watch, though. That buys a longer leash.

Replacing a great QB (SB era)

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