Red Sox Trade Deadline 2022

joe dokes

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Yeah, but expecting that going into 2022 would have been foolish and I'm probably the biggest Kutter Crawford fanboy there is. Going into the year, Kutter Crawford was lucky to have a major league career.

I'm just not sure that the Red Sox could have done different pitching wise though. The farm had pitching depth a year away, so they had to rely on retreads. Hopefully in 2023, it's retreads and farm hands who are now ready.
My bad. I saw "preseason," and read "post-season."
 

Cesar Crespo

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In terms of 2022, I tend to agree, and I'm surprised there are folks here who think Vazquez->McGuire is not a downgrade.

That said, 3+ years of McGuire may be a lot more valuable than two months of Vazquez. And getting rid of Diekman's salary in the process? I'll call that a win overall.
I'm not sure anyone here thinks that. I suggested that may be Bloom does, or he thinks the downgrade is marginal. McGuire is supposed to be really good at the C part of being a C.

That or Bloom really likes Valdez and/or Abreu. I've been talking myself into Valdez, he's not a 3 outcome player and he added power at an age where a lot of players add power.

Or he got caught with his pants down, I suppose. I don't think that's likely but I can see how one might think he had a plan and failed to execute it.
 

amfox1

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That said, 3+ years of McGuire may be a lot more valuable than two months of Vazquez. And getting rid of Diekman's salary in the process? I'll call that a win overall.
I think it's apples and grapefruits. CVaz is a starting catcher, who can handle 100-110 games and not be a sinkhole at the plate most of the time. McGuire is a decent backup catcher and if you can get his 2021 production out of him, he's a low-end CVaz with better defense. That seems optimistic. He's also out of options, which means you eventually have to make a choice next year between Wong and McGuire, unless you're just going to platoon them without getting a starting catcher and hope you get some offensive production out of them.

I wouldn't conclude that McGuire is more valuable than CVaz, but he (and the net cost savings from the trade) is certainly is more valuable than Diekman.

I wonder why the Mets never stepped up to the table on CVaz and JDM. It made a lot of sense, and I believe the Mets will regret not being more aggressive at the deadline.
 

Rovin Romine

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Dalbec sat most of the playoffs, despite a torrid August and decent September, and that should tell you something about their understanding of him. He was best when sharing the position. Wacha, Hill, Sale, (and Paxton) were coming years they were hurt, ineffective, old, or some combination. Yes, it was easy to predict that rotation would fray. Most thought another shoe would drop after Renfroe was traded for JBJ - surely JBJ would have a good hitting platoon partner or would be the 4th outfielder - but no. The bullpen was filled with fliers, guys who were okay - no blue chips. I certainly was unhappy with the offseason, as were many others. Yes, Story came in - I was modestly happy about that, knowing he would improve the team immediately, but a bit wary about his fast declining offensive numbers. But obvious holes were left in the rotation, bullpen, outfield, and I would contend first base. It wasn't crystal ball stuff, it was looking at who Bloom got, and virtually each was a contingency kind of acquisition "if" "if" "if" ... with no sure things, blue chip or all star players brought in (no, I don't want the whole team to be comprised of high priced FA, so I kindly ask you not to respond to my post that way).

Sighting Crawford and Winchowski as dependable contributors in the preseason feels like crystal ball stuff, not the rest.

EDIT: And I'm not making "complaints", I'm critiquing. You can certainly disagree with my critique, but let's not diminish any critical look at Bloom as "complaining", "childish" "EEI screaming. The reflex to defend the mighty leader at all costs begins to feel a bit dogmatic ...
Respectfully Cantor, it's not really a critique. These points have already been made quite often on the board, and you'll find many who'd agree that 1B/OF depth was a weakness, certainly in retrospect.

But a critique implies the ability to say what could have been done better, and how to do better in the future. To do that, you have to look at the situation on the ground when the choices were made. (That is to say, the lack of depth does not exist in a vacuum.) https://www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-2022-opening-day-roster

For example, 1B, the plan was obviously Dalbec (Shaw as an emergency fix) with Casas being a mid-season call up. And Casas is why you can't sign a long term 1B for 2022-24. And I'm not sure that's an unreasonable plan in May of 2022. It took a lot going wrong for it to implode as it did - none of the main options worked, and none of the creative ones (Franchy) did either. (If Bloom had traded away a completely serviceable 1B platoon partner for Dalbec this year, I think we have a much better argument for a gross failure.)

For the OF, there's much more of an argument something more should have been done - and I think many here were skeptical at the time that JBJ could rebound offensively, even if he was a sure thing to carry his weight defensively. But even there one has to look at the team as a whole. We had Verdugo and Hernandez. Can a team carry one or two "potentially rebounding" players? Sure. Teams do that all the time. We had some AAA promise in Duran, but maybe they should have signed a just-as-risky rebounding Pham at the beginning. Instead they rolled the dice with a rebounding JBJ (who they acquired for prospects.)

In terms of the pitching staff, you (or someone) has already made these points elsewhere. Basically the argument comes down to "Bloom signed free agents that mostly did a very good job and unfortunately all got injured at the same time, along with our regular pitchers."

Which is a big so-what? What was he supposed to do differently that's subject to criticism? Expecting Bloom (or any GM) to only sign the year's best free agent pitchers (measured retrospectively) is 100% childish. And I'm not sure there's any other "critique" that springs from Blooms FA pitcher signings. Overall he did well. (If they were all duds you'd have to wonder about the scouting - but they weren't all duds.)

You can't confuse volatility and risk with actionable-risk from a perspective of after-the-fact certainty. And you certainly can't confuse random accidents with reasonably expected outcomes. (e.g., Sale's finger, Strahm's wrist, Story's wrist. Take those 3 away, or insist on them and randomly insert Francy's wrist or Dalbec's wrist or Diekman's finger and we're having a totally different conversation.)

For example, in May of 2022, is it reasonable to expect that Barnes was cooked, and should be traded as a precautionary measure? Or that we should trade prospects for a second closer? He was throwing hard. He had previous tail-offs to seasons. There's volatility and some risk, but is it an actionable risk? Meaning, do you act on it? Or is it just there?

Here's two contemporary examples, I'd actually like you to think about: should Bloom have traded JD yesterday for a bucket of balls because his back is going flare up this month? Should he have shopped Trevor Story because the man just can't seem to get his head into Boston and may have a chronic wrist problem now? Or should he have held onto JD because his power-drought is a blip and he'll recover his stroke as we make a run? Is Trevor Story going to come back just fine?

If you can't answer the unknowable, it's a little weird to expect others to perfectly hedge their bets on the same.


As a separate matter, if you want to say it's Bloom's responsibility to field a good team, I have no pushback for you at all. It is. But just because a team fails does not mean Bloom didn't discharge that responsibility in a competent and reasonable way. If you're looking at an ongoing pattern of team failure that's not directly attributable to something like a come-backer snapping off your ace's pinky, I think it's perfectly reasonable to say "I don't know what the solution is, but Bloom does not either." But I don't think we're there yet.
 
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RedOctober3829

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Respectfully Cantor, it's not really a critique. These points have already been made quite often on the board, and you'll find many who'd agree that 1B/OF depth was a weakness, certainly in retrospect.

But a critique implies the ability to say what could have been done better, and how to do better in the future. To do that, you have to look at the situation on the ground when the choices were made. (That is to say, the lack of depth does not exist in a vacuum.) https://www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-2022-opening-day-roster

For example, 1B, the plan was obviously Dalbec (Shaw as an emergency fix) with Casas being a mid-season call up. And Casas is why you can't sign a long term 1B for 2022-24. And I'm not sure that's an unreasonable plan in May of 2022. It took a lot going wrong for it to implode as it did - none of the main options worked, and none of the creative ones (Franchy) did either. (If Bloom had traded away a completely serviceable 1B platoon partner for Dalbec this year, I think we have a much better argument for a gross failure.)

For the OF, there's much more of an argument something more should have been done - and I think many here were skeptical at the time that JBJ could rebound offensively, even if he was a sure thing to carry his weight defensively. But even there one has to look at the team as a whole. We had Verdugo and Hernandez. Can a team carry one or two "potentially rebounding" players? Sure. Teams do that all the time. We had some AAA promise in Duran, but maybe they should have signed a just-as-risky rebounding Pham at the beginning. Instead they rolled the dice with a rebounding JBJ (who they acquired for prospects.)

In terms of the pitching staff, you (or someone) has already made these points elsewhere. Basically the argument comes down to "Bloom signed free agents that mostly did a very good job and unfortunately all got injured at the same time, along with our regular pitchers."

Which is a big so-what? What was he supposed to do differently that's subject to criticism? Expecting Bloom (or any GM) to only sign the year's best free agent pitchers (measured retrospectively) is 100% childish. And I'm not sure there's any other "critique" that springs from Blooms FA pitcher signings. Overall he did well. (If they were all duds you'd have to wonder about the scouting - but they weren't all duds.)

You can't mistake volatility and risk for after-the-fact certainty.

Was Barnes cooked in May of 2022? He was throwing hard. He had previous tail-offs to seasons. There's volatility and some risk, but is it an actionable risk? Here's two contemporary examples, I'd actually like you to think about: should Bloom have traded JD yesterday for a bucket of balls because his back is going flare up this month? Should he have shopped Trevor Story because the man just can't seem to get his head into Boston and may have a chronic wrist problem now? Or should he have held onto JD because his power-drought is a blip and he'll recover his stroke as we make a run? Is Trevor Story going to come back just fine?

If you can't answer the unknowable, it's a little weird to expect others to perfectly hedge their bets on the same.


As a separate matter, if you want to say it's Bloom's responsibility to field a good team, I have no pushback for you at all. It is. But just because a team fails does not mean Bloom didn't discharge that responsibility in a competent and reasonable way. If you're looking at an ongoing pattern of team failure that's not directly attributable to something like a come-backer snapping off your ace's pinky, I think it's perfectly reasonable to say "I don't know what the solution is, but Bloom does not either." But I don't think we're there yet.
We'll find out a lot about Bloom this offseason. He's got a lot of heavy lifting to do to retool this roster. I'd go as far to say this is his make or break year with the franchise. The Devers situation is absolutely huge. Does he go out and help the rotation out with a big-time move or does he go for the Wacha's, the Hill's, and the Garrett Richards' of the world? He has been extremely risk-averse in his moves. Let's see if he's willing to give up some prospects or shell out a market deal for impact players.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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We'll find out a lot about Bloom this offseason. He's got a lot of heavy lifting to do to retool this roster. I'd go as far to say this is his make or break year with the franchise. The Devers situation is absolutely huge. Does he go out and help the rotation out with a big-time move or does he go for the Wacha's, the Hill's, and the Garrett Richards' of the world? He has been extremely risk-averse in his moves. Let's see if he's willing to give up some prospects or shell out a market deal for impact players.
Agreed. Lots of players on the move, and he’ll have a ton of money to work with.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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We'll find out a lot about Bloom this offseason. He's got a lot of heavy lifting to do to retool this roster. I'd go as far to say this is his make or break year with the franchise. The Devers situation is absolutely huge. Does he go out and help the rotation out with a big-time move or does he go for the Wacha's, the Hill's, and the Garrett Richards' of the world? He has been extremely risk-averse in his moves. Let's see if he's willing to give up some prospects or shell out a market deal for impact players.
The Devers situation won't be Bloom's call. The rest of it will be a good read on his abilities to spot talent.
 

Rovin Romine

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Does he go out and help the rotation out with a big-time move or does he go for the Wacha's, the Hill's, and the Garrett Richards' of the world? He has been extremely risk-averse in his moves. Let's see if he's willing to give up some prospects or shell out a market deal for impact players.
Well, I get what you're saying. . .but I mean, you want a Wacha signing every year, right? :)

Anyway, I don't really care how Bloom puts a winning team together, so long as he does so, and/or there's a clear plan forward in the lean years.

That said, I think he's best off using all the tools in the tool-box to meet that goal. He's got money in a big budget. He's got a deep farm system. He's got a staff that's been pretty good with picking up pitching, but not so great in grabbing/developing hitters. (So, like maybe improve that.)

Generally, I think it comes down to how much of a bridge year 2023 is to the prospect pipeline (such as it is.) Bloom does not have to sacrifice the farm to make the team competitive. But if a farm-centric won't actually make the team competitive, he should treat it accordingly.
 

RedOctober3829

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Well, I get what you're saying. . .but I mean, you want a Wacha signing every year, right? :)

Anyway, I don't really care how Bloom puts a winning team together, so long as he does so, and/or there's a clear plan forward in the lean years.

That said, I think he's best off using all the tools in the tool-box to meet that goal. He's got money in a big budget. He's got a deep farm system. He's got a staff that's been pretty good with picking up pitching, but not so great in grabbing/developing hitters. (So, like maybe improve that.)

Generally, I think it comes down to how much of a bridge year 2023 is to the prospect pipeline (such as it is.) Bloom does not have to sacrifice the farm to make the team competitive. But if a farm-centric won't actually make the team competitive, he should treat it accordingly.
I think you don't have to sacrifice the farm if you're confident in your drafting and developing. If you target a player, go get him and be confident in player development's ability to get replacements and continue the machine forward. Hopefully the bottom of the top 10 and middle of the farm system will get to the point again that those prospects can fetch top players and the top of the farm system is untouchable.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Dalbec sat most of the playoffs, despite a torrid August and decent September, and that should tell you something about their understanding of him. He was best when sharing the position. Wacha, Hill, Sale, (and Paxton) were coming years they were hurt, ineffective, old, or some combination. Yes, it was easy to predict that rotation would fray. Most thought another shoe would drop after Renfroe was traded for JBJ - surely JBJ would have a good hitting platoon partner or would be the 4th outfielder - but no. The bullpen was filled with fliers, guys who were okay - no blue chips. I certainly was unhappy with the offseason, as were many others. Yes, Story came in - I was modestly happy about that, knowing he would improve the team immediately, but a bit wary about his fast declining offensive numbers. But obvious holes were left in the rotation, bullpen, outfield, and I would contend first base. It wasn't crystal ball stuff, it was looking at who Bloom got, and virtually each was a contingency kind of acquisition "if" "if" "if" ... with no sure things, blue chip or all star players brought in (no, I don't want the whole team to be comprised of high priced FA, so I kindly ask you not to respond to my post that way).

Sighting Crawford and Winchowski as dependable contributors in the preseason feels like crystal ball stuff, not the rest.

EDIT: And I'm not making "complaints", I'm critiquing. You can certainly disagree with my critique, but let's not diminish any critical look at Bloom as "complaining", "childish" "EEI screaming. The reflex to defend the mighty leader at all costs begins to feel a bit dogmatic ...
Dalbec sat because they needed to get both JDM and Schwarber into the lineup and maximize their best defensive OF. That left Dalbec the odd man out. That’s it. Were they going to not play JD or Kyle? Dalbec was crushing everything in sight up the playoffs. There was every reason to expect him to be improve on his overall ‘21 and I absolutely have zero issue with Bloom going forward with Dalbec there.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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I think you don't have to sacrifice the farm if you're confident in your drafting and developing. If you target a player, go get him and be confident in player development's ability to get replacements and continue the machine forward. Hopefully the bottom of the top 10 and middle of the farm system will get to the point again that those prospects can fetch top players and the top of the farm system is untouchable.
Is it not already there? Jon Abbey posted somewhere that the Sox had 33 prospects worth ranking in 2019. They have 63 in 2022. I know not all of those are top prospects but still. If you go over to Soxprospects.com who updates their lists semi regularly

6. Brayan Mata
7. Miguel Bleis
8. Ceddanne Rafaela
9. Josh Winckowski
10. Chris Murphy.

Depending on what you mean by bottom of the top 10, they should be able to fetch top players with that group. Unless by top players you mean players like Soto. But if that's the case, when has a team ever had a farm system deep enough that their 6-10 guys would be enough to land Juan Soto?

This farm is incredibly deep. Maybe not as top heavy as some of the teams in the early half of the '10s but it may be deeper.
 

RedOctober3829

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Is it not already there? Jon Abbey posted somewhere that the Sox had 33 prospects worth ranking in 2019. They have 63 in 2022. I know not all of those are top prospects but still. If you go over to Soxprospects.com who updates their lists semi regularly

6. Brayan Mata
7. Miguel Bleis
8. Ceddanne Rafaela
9. Josh Winckowski
10. Chris Murphy.

Depending on what you mean by bottom of the top 10, they should be able to fetch top players with that group. Unless by top players you mean players like Soto. But if that's the case, when has a team ever had a farm system deep enough that their 6-10 guys would be enough to land Juan Soto?

This farm is incredibly deep. Maybe not as top heavy as some of the teams in the early half of the '10s but it may be deeper.
Yes, that's where I was going with my post. I'm not talking about a player like Soto, but good solid impact major league players. My example that is best is the Yankees. They keep on trading for good players without touching their best prospects.
 

Cesar Crespo

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There was every reason to expect him to be improve on his overall ‘21 and I absolutely have zero issue with Bloom going forward with Dalbec there.
They had some reason, not every reason. April-July count too and he struck out in 34.4% of his PA last year. In his last 89 PA of 2021 (during the hot streak) he was striking out 32.6% of the time.

They also have his whole minor league career. I can see going into the season with him (545 PA, 112 OPS+), but if you are, you can't go in with Casas as the back up plan. That's hoping he develops the way he should and has perfect health. It's also depending on a rookie to perform and not struggle.
 

Ganthem

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Dalbec sat most of the playoffs, despite a torrid August and decent September, and that should tell you something about their understanding of him. He was best when sharing the position. Wacha, Hill, Sale, (and Paxton) were coming years they were hurt, ineffective, old, or some combination. Yes, it was easy to predict that rotation would fray. Most thought another shoe would drop after Renfroe was traded for JBJ - surely JBJ would have a good hitting platoon partner or would be the 4th outfielder - but no. The bullpen was filled with fliers, guys who were okay - no blue chips. I certainly was unhappy with the offseason, as were many others. Yes, Story came in - I was modestly happy about that, knowing he would improve the team immediately, but a bit wary about his fast declining offensive numbers. But obvious holes were left in the rotation, bullpen, outfield, and I would contend first base. It wasn't crystal ball stuff, it was looking at who Bloom got, and virtually each was a contingency kind of acquisition "if" "if" "if" ... with no sure things, blue chip or all star players brought in (no, I don't want the whole team to be comprised of high priced FA, so I kindly ask you not to respond to my post that way).

Sighting Crawford and Winchowski as dependable contributors in the preseason feels like crystal ball stuff, not the rest.

EDIT: And I'm not making "complaints", I'm critiquing. You can certainly disagree with my critique, but let's not diminish any critical look at Bloom as "complaining", "childish" "EEI screaming. The reflex to defend the mighty leader at all costs begins to feel a bit dogmatic ...
The problem with your critique is it has no basis in reality. There is not a single GM with understanding of prospect development that would have signed/traded for another first baseman or a platoon partner for Dalbec after his torrid August and September. In fact given how prospects develop his torrid August and September were not out of the norm. As for the playoffs a young player can struggle in the playoffs. If Bloom is going to allow a handful of playoff games to dictate his evaluation of a player then the Sox are in bad shape. As for the rotation I hope the depth that has been shown this year is the kind of depth they have every year. In fact most fans would be thrilled if there team demonstrated the depth that the Sox have had for their rotation. Sale goes down and Wacha is inserted and does fairly well. Both Houck and Whitlock did well when inserted in the rotation. Crawford and Winchowski both did decently. The big problem in July had more to do with defense and offense. As for JBJ it was a reasonably swing to take. Even though he was a below average hitter his defense meant he was a positive contributor through most of his major league career. One bad season does not mean a player is cooked. In fact Bloom will probably take more of those swings, because that is what good teams do. Further he had Jared Duran in triple A as further depth. In general depth is retreads or four A players. The fact he was able to get Refsnyder is another feather in his camp. As for the bullpen what would you like him to do? Many teams spend vast sums of money on the bullpen and end up with a shit bullpen. There is no right way to build a bullpen, but traded for bullpen pitchers and signing a bunch of them to big money deals doesn't seem a good way to build a bullpen. The bigger problem with the bullpen has been Cora's usage of it through the season. Some of Bloom's moves worked and some didn't. The thought process behind those moves though seem solid unless you have a crystal ball. Bloom is not beyond criticism. I would have like Gausman brought in and I am curious what he is going to do with the rotation next year, but your "critiques" are just baseless.
 

Ganthem

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The Devers situation won't be Bloom's call. The rest of it will be a good read on his abilities to spot talent.
The problem with people clamoring for a Dever's extension last off season is they are ignoring his defense. Bloom shouldn't give big money to players who can just hit the ball a long way but can't field. Dever's seems to have taken a massive step forward in terms of his defense this year. I would not be surprised if Bloom got an extension done with Dever's this off season. Henry approving a big contract when a ton of money is coming off the book and there is not a ton of bloat on the team is different then when the team is full of a bunch of bloated contracts.
 

snowmanny

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The problem with your critique is it has no basis in reality. There is not a single GM with understanding of prospect development that would have signed/traded for another first baseman or a platoon partner for Dalbec after his torrid August and September.
I don’t get why we should be infatuated with his brief hot streak. Let’s put Clyde Vollmer in the lineup! Dalbec had an OPS+ of 105 last year. He had an OPS of .730 vs RHP. Plenty of GMs would look for an upgrade or a platoon partner with those numbers. In fact Bloom DID look for an upgrade last year in Schwarber. Maybe Casas was supposed to be the platoon, I don’t know. But I totally dispute your assertion that there aren’t plenty of teams who wouldn’t have looked to improve in those numbers.
 

BornToRun

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I don’t get why we should be infatuated with his brief hot streak. Let’s put Clyde Vollmer in the lineup! Dalbec had an OPS+ of 105 last year. He had an OPS of .730 vs RHP. Plenty of GMs would look for an upgrade or a platoon partner with those numbers. In fact Bloom DID look for an upgrade last year in Schwarber. Maybe Casas was supposed to be the platoon, I don’t know. But I totally dispute your assertion that there aren’t plenty of teams who wouldn’t have looked to improve in those numbers.
Maybe not but I don’t think it was unreasonable to see if a young player who came up with some level of expectation could build on a strong second half. Bobby D wasn’t some 28 year old who found a power stroke out of nowhere. He always had talent and tantalizing power. I was fine with riding it out and seeing if he had turned a corner given who he was and what we knew at the time. It hasn’t worked out but I don’t think it was unreasonable to think he was capable of continuing to trend in the right direction.
 

Ganthem

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I don’t get why we should be infatuated with his brief hot streak. Let’s put Clyde Vollmer in the lineup! Dalbec had an OPS+ of 105 last year. He had an OPS of .730 vs RHP. Plenty of GMs would look for an upgrade or a platoon partner with those numbers. In fact Bloom DID look for an upgrade last year in Schwarber. Maybe Casas was supposed to be the platoon, I don’t know. But I totally dispute your assertion that there aren’t plenty of teams who wouldn’t have looked to improve in those numbers.
Because as anyone who knows prospect development will tell you, most players struggle when they first come up. Dalbec figuring it out the last couple months was not surprising. Any gm that had a prospect that put up Dalbec's numbers the last few months would eagerly go into the next season with that player in the lineup.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Because as anyone who knows prospect development will tell you, most players struggle when they first come up. Dalbec figuring it out the last couple months was not surprising. Any gm that had a prospect that put up Dalbec's numbers the last few months would eagerly go into the next season with that player in the lineup.
And I don't believe anyone was expecting his insane Barry-Bondsian hot streak to be his '22 season. There was a very understandable expectation that he could end up somewhere around where he leveled off after the entire season - somewhere between .750 and .775 with 25HR's. If he struggled, I also don't think expecting Travis Shaw to be able to be competent (.680-.700OPS was ridiculous either) enough to hold it together until Casas came up. There was no way that Bloom was going to be able to get anything better than what he assembled at 1B with Plans A, B, C.

Again... I'm not a Bloom fan or hater. He should be criticized when appropriate but I don't think how he handled 1B to start the season was bad... at all.
Nor his handling of the rotation, nor even the bullpen!
My one major issue was his fumbling of the Suzuki pursuit. Adding prospects is all nice, but I don't see either of the guys that returned from Milwaukee as being significant enough to have future ML impact either direct or through trade. That was seriously terrible work how he handled it.
I would have like to have Schwarber back and dealt JDM or just figured out how to keep them both, but I can see and understand why he didn't pursue Kyle.
 
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snowmanny

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Because as anyone who knows prospect development will tell you, most players struggle when they first come up. Dalbec figuring it out the last couple months was not surprising. Any gm that had a prospect that put up Dalbec's numbers the last few months would eagerly go into the next season with that player in the lineup.
I see. Not a transient hot streak. He ‘figured it out’. Good to know.

edit - the certainty with which you say “anyone who knows prospect development” and “any GM” would trust he had developed into a major league hitter by the end of the year...when his own manager benched him in the playoffs...is breathtaking. Eagerly going into the season with someone who was mostly crap the year before seems like dubious plan to me, but I am not an expert in the development of 27 year old prospects.
 
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chawson

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Eagerly going into the season with someone who was mostly crap the year before seems like dubious plan to me, but I am not an expert in the development of 27 year old prospects.
Ehhh, I don’t know. Dalbec was 26 coming into the year, and everyone effectively lost a year of development because of the pandemic.

There are plenty of older players who figure it out. C.J. Cron and Brandon Drury were both considered AAAA guys at 27, and Josh Bell was a liability his age-27 season too. Justin Turner, Mark Canha, Travis d’Arnaud, Taylor Ward, Adam Duvall, Santiago Espinal, Jesus Aguilar, Teoscar Hernández and Charlie Blackmon are all late-bloomers. Maybe Refsnyder keeps it up and makes this list too. Or Arroyo?

Progress is not linear, and these days players are constantly making adjustments and swing changes. Of course not all of them figure it out. I was done with Dalbec on August 1 of last year, and he put together a terrific two months, with plenty of promising data. All that has since declined.
 

Ganthem

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Ehhh, I don’t know. Dalbec was 26 coming into the year, and everyone effectively lost a year of development because of the pandemic.

There are plenty of older players who figure it out. C.J. Cron and Brandon Drury were both considered AAAA guys at 27, and Josh Bell was a liability his age-27 season too. Justin Turner, Mark Canha, Travis d’Arnaud, Taylor Ward, Adam Duvall, Santiago Espinal, Jesus Aguilar, Teoscar Hernández and Charlie Blackmon are all late-bloomers. Maybe Refsnyder keeps it up and makes this list too. Or Arroyo?

Progress is not linear, and these days players are constantly making adjustments and swing changes. Of course not all of them figure it out. I was done with Dalbec on August 1 of last year, and he put together a terrific two months, with plenty of promising data. All that has since declined.
Thank you
 

scottyno

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I see. Not a transient hot streak. He ‘figured it out’. Good to know.

edit - the certainty with which you say “anyone who knows prospect development” and “any GM” would trust he had developed into a major league hitter by the end of the year...when his own manager benched him in the playoffs...is breathtaking. Eagerly going into the season with someone who was mostly crap the year before seems like dubious plan to me, but I am not an expert in the development of 27 year old prospects.
Why do you think his manager benched him in the playoffs because he didn't trust him and not because the alternative was putting Kyle Schwarber in the outfield?
 

8slim

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FWIW, Dalbec's torrid streak did cool considerably in the last 2 weeks of the 2021 regular season. I suspect that made it somewhat easier to bench him in favor of Schwarber, who hit really well over the same period.

I also think Dalbec looked awful in nearly all of his 12 post-season plate appearances.

He didn't really end 2021 with a flourish.
 

snowmanny

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Why do you think his manager benched him in the playoffs because he didn't trust him and not because the alternative was putting Kyle Schwarber in the outfield?
Absolutely. Renfroe in the OF and Schwarber at first > Schwarber in the OF and Dalbec at first. I’m just saying that if everyone really believed he had “figured it out” and was now a .950 OPS player he would have had more than 2 ABs in the ACLS.

That was my read on the situation. Of course I do not know that for sure. And I am shocked he has had this much rope this year, although the Casas situation plays into that of course. But maybe he will get torridly hot for a few weeks and we can do this all again next year.
 

Ganthem

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Absolutely. Renfroe in the OF and Schwarber at first > Schwarber in the OF and Dalbec at first. I’m just saying that if everyone really believed he had “figured it out” and was now a .950 OPS player he would have had more than 2 ABs in the ACLS.

That was my read on the situation. Of course I do not know that for sure. And I am shocked he has had this much rope this year, although the Casas situation plays into that of course. But maybe he will get torridly hot for a few weeks and we can do this all again next year.
Or they felt he was more likely a 750 to 800 ops player and that the vets were better options in the playoffs. The point is there was a very good reason why Bloom would not go out and get a platoon partner or another first baseman given how Dalbec finished the year and given where Casas was. If Bloom made mistakes, first base was not one of them.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Why do you think his manager benched him in the playoffs because he didn't trust him and not because the alternative was putting Kyle Schwarber in the outfield?
Thank you! The "he was benched in the playoffs" thing without context is annoying AF. Yeah... he needed to get JDM and Schwarber in the lineup AND put up the best possible outfield. I think any manager would have made that decision even with the Bondsian-like hot streak he was riding. You have to go with experience.
Off the top of my head I can think of one great young 3B player who was "benched" in the playoffs for a veteran for defensive purposes recently.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Dalbec also showed no ability to hit hard throwing RHP, of which there were many in the playoffs.
And he also was randomly getting times to hit! No rhythm... just occasional get up there and swing. DH'ing is difficult and PH'ing is even more difficult. Add in- against the best pitchers in the league- and it's an impossible situation. I wouldn't expect the best hitters to look good given that situation
 

scottyno

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Absolutely. Renfroe in the OF and Schwarber at first > Schwarber in the OF and Dalbec at first. I’m just saying that if everyone really believed he had “figured it out” and was now a .950 OPS player he would have had more than 2 ABs in the ACLS.

That was my read on the situation. Of course I do not know that for sure. And I am shocked he has had this much rope this year, although the Casas situation plays into that of course. But maybe he will get torridly hot for a few weeks and we can do this all again next year.
Pretty sure no one thought he was now a .950 ops player, that would have made him a top 5 hitter in baseball.
 

8slim

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And he also was randomly getting times to hit! No rhythm... just occasional get up there and swing. DH'ing is difficult and PH'ing is even more difficult. Add in- against the best pitchers in the league- and it's an impossible situation. I wouldn't expect the best hitters to look good given that situation
Playoff baseball is by definition SSS, but he started the WC and game #1 of the ALDS. He went 0-8 with 2 Ks and a GIDP. So, not great when he had rhythm.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Absolutely. Renfroe in the OF and Schwarber at first > Schwarber in the OF and Dalbec at first. I’m just saying that if everyone really believed he had “figured it out” and was now a .950 OPS player he would have had more than 2 ABs in the ACLS.

That was my read on the situation. Of course I do not know that for sure. And I am shocked he has had this much rope this year, although the Casas situation plays into that of course. But maybe he will get torridly hot for a few weeks and we can do this all again next year.
Except no one believe he was going to be a .950 OPS player. An .800 OPS player would have been more the ideal hope. A .700-.750 OPS player would have realistic and acceptable until Casas was ready. A 105 OPS+ (Dalbec's number last season) is roughly a .720-.725 OPS this season.
 

snowmanny

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Or they felt he was more likely a 750 to 800 ops player and that the vets were better options in the playoffs. The point is there was a very good reason why Bloom would not go out and get a platoon partner or another first baseman given how Dalbec finished the year and given where Casas was. If Bloom made mistakes, first base was not one of them.
That Dalbec/Casas platoon would have been ok with me - although platoons aren’t what they used to be with five pitchers in a game - but I am less confident about the same platoon going into 2023. Also, I am neutral on Bloom but it was pretty obvious early on first base was a problem this year and he let it go. Dalbec vs RHP is ugly

Edit: my reference to the 950 ops was a response to the notion that he had “figured it out” as evidenced by his August/September 2021 numbers.
All of you saying he certainly wasn’t a 950 hitter are confirming what I was saying: it was just a mirage SSS.

Anyway I am willing to concede that most of you liked what you saw of him in 2021 and were OK with him as a long/term starter this year. That’s fine.
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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That Dalbec/Casas platoon would have been ok with me - although platoons aren’t what they used to be with five pitchers in a game - but I am less confident about the same platoon going into 2023. Also, I am neutral on Bloom but it was pretty obvious early on first base was a problem this year and he let it go. Dalbec vs RHP is ugly

Edit: my reference to the 950 ops was a response to the notion that he had “figured it out” as evidenced by his August/September 2021 numbers.
All of you saying he certainly wasn’t a 950 hitter are confirming what I was saying: it was just a mirage SSS.

Anyway I am willing to concede that most of you liked what you saw of him in 2021 and were OK with him as a long/term starter this year. That’s fine.
I don't think it was "long term starter" as much as I felt that for '22 he could improve his defense and level off some consistency with a .725-.750 OPS and 25HRs. Good enough to hold the spot but expecting to see Casas up sometime in late July/early August. Leveraging Dalbec's '22 and trading him.
I really don't think those were crazy expectations at all, and I think Bloom had that as his Plan A. His Plan B was for Shaw (again, who I think could reasonably be expected to play .675 OPS and good defense) and his Plan C was for Casas. That's a fine plan.
Who was Bloom going to sign to back up 1B that was a guaranteed "better than Plan A" knowing that the long term plan was Casas???
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I think you could be OK with Bobby if he was a consistent 750 ops guy but he is so hot and cold, and weak agianst RH / hard throwers, and so rarely walks that a lot of the time you are getting nothing, with mediocre defense.

his OPS by month over the course of his career (ignoring august 20 and 22 with less than 10 PA)

966
619
672
781
541
1205
928
449
715
711
674

Average month is a 751; but the median is a 711; 7 of the 11 months are 42 points or more below his career average.
 

Just a bit outside

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I don't think it was "long term starter" as much as I felt that for '22 he could improve his defense and level off some consistency with a .725-.750 OPS and 25HRs. Good enough to hold the spot but expecting to see Casas up sometime in late July/early August. Leveraging Dalbec's '22 and trading him.
I really don't think those were crazy expectations at all, and I think Bloom had that as his Plan A. His Plan B was for Shaw (again, who I think could reasonably be expected to play .675 OPS and good defense) and his Plan C was for Casas. That's a fine plan.
Who was Bloom going to sign to back up 1B that was a guaranteed "better than Plan A" knowing that the long term plan was Casas???
Plan B was terrible. Shaw sucked for last 3 years before this one. WRC+ of 41, 91, 78 and the highest WAR for the 3 years being 0. Bloom should have expected him to suck because he did prior to this year.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Plan B was terrible. Shaw sucked for last 3 years before this one. WRC+ of 41, 91, 78 and the highest WAR for the 3 years being 0. Bloom should have expected him to suck because he did prior to this year.
That is true. But what other Plan B options were available knowing the situation with Casas and Dalbec that was better?
 
Sep 29, 2017
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Vogelbach, Jake Lamb, Colin Moran, and Matt Carpenter were all left handed hitting guys who can play first who signed for a million or less and were better the last 3 years than Shaw.
Before he became Barry Bonds Matt Carpenter's last three years OPS+ were 92, 79, and 63. At the beginning of this year he was going to turn 36. Last year his bref WAR was -1.1 and his ISO was down to .106. It currently sits at .470, double his career best.

I get that Shaw was terrible but did anyone really see Carpenter doing this?
 

Just a bit outside

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Before he became Barry Bonds Matt Carpenter's last three years OPS+ were 92, 79, and 63. At the beginning of this year he was going to turn 36. Last year his bref WAR was -1.1 and his ISO was down to .106. It currently sits at .470, double his career best.

I get that Shaw was terrible but did anyone really see Carpenter doing this?
I didn’t I was just looking for left handed hitters who signed for less than a million. I think the other 3 while not great would have been better choices than Shaw.

Of course they could of spent more but I assumed the budget was keeping it to these type of players.
 

tbb345

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I see. Not a transient hot streak. He ‘figured it out’. Good to know.

edit - the certainty with which you say “anyone who knows prospect development” and “any GM” would trust he had developed into a major league hitter by the end of the year...when his own manager benched him in the playoffs...is breathtaking. Eagerly going into the season with someone who was mostly crap the year before seems like dubious plan to me, but I am not an expert in the development of 27 year old prospects.
Exactly. It’s reasonable to expect that Dalbec figured something out….it’s also reasonable to assume that he’s an extreme hot and cold player that you can’t rely on.

To act as if there was complete certainty either way or that it was some no brainer that anyone who knows baseball would understand is incredibly disingenuous
 

Diamond Don Aase

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Fangraphs and MLB.com each have published their rankings of the prospects traded at the 2022 deadline.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-traded-during-the-2022-deadline/

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-prospects-traded-at-2022-trade-deadline?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

Both articles ranked Jay Groome as the best prospect involved in the Red Sox trades. MLB ranked Groome 34th and Fangraphs ranked him 20th with a Future Value of 40+.

Enmanuel Valdez was the only prospect received by the Red Sox to be ranked among the top 40 by either publication. MLB ranked Valdez 39th and Fangraphs ranked him 36th with a Future Value of 40. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs compared Valdez to a lefty-hitting Mike Brosseau, so we can all agree the Vazquez trade will have been totally worth it when Valdez eliminates the Yankees with a home run against New York’s closer.

Other prospects received by the Red Sox:
Corey Rosier (MLB #44, FG #43 FV 40)
Wilyer Abreu (MLB #41 , FG #49 FV 35+)
Max Ferguson (MLB #42, FG #52 FV35+)

Other prospects of potential interest:
2021 MLB Draft second-round picks Edwin Arroyo (MLB #7, FG #11 FV 40+) and Robert Gasser (MLB #11, FG #24 FV 40).
Left-handed pitcher Antoine Kelly (MLB #18, FG #17 FV 40+), who was traded to the Rangers by the Brewers with a 28-year-old utility infielder for a 36-year-old, arbitration-eligible set-up man. Texas somehow was not only able to resist taking on Lorenzo Cain’s salary in the deal but actually received cash from Milwaukee to offset the salary of the 28-year-old utility infielder.
 

chawson

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Can we send him to Worcester? If so, I'd be very interested.

He's only 26, and he's averaged over 30 HR/162 games in his career. The strikeouts are... a problem, but that's why he's available, right?
Would be a monster in Fenway if he rights the ship. Under control through 2024 and we have a DH opening. Too bad the fan base and local media has such little patience for high strikeout projects right now.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Can we send him to Worcester? If so, I'd be very interested.

He's only 26, and he's averaged over 30 HR/162 games in his career. The strikeouts are... a problem, but that's why he's available, right?
He can be optioned, but how is he not Bobby Dalbec redux or a RHH Franchy? Other than he hasn't ever played 1B?

Basically I think they have enough of these projects already. Unless one of the others goes to make room, there's not a ton to gain.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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He can be optioned, but how is he not Bobby Dalbec redux or a RHH Franchy? Other than he hasn't ever played 1B?

Basically I think they have enough of these projects already. Unless one of the others goes to make room, there's not a ton to gain.
Especially since they haven’t really shown any kind of organizational ability to turn any of these types of players around.