Red Sox Trade Deadline 2022

snowmanny

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
16,021
Are you kidding? Joe Kelly certainly had some value (if some frustration along the way), but the Craig part was a disaster.

Kelly was an important part of 2018, so maybe in a David Price sort-of-way this deal was worth it, but in isolation, its one of the worst financial moves the Sox ever made.
Although within a month of that deal they gave Rusney $73Million.
 

E5 Yaz

polka king
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
91,463
Oregon
“We’re trying to make the postseason,” (Bloom) added. “So whatever that means, we’re going to explore a lot of stuff. Some of them might be things people expect. Some of them might not be. But you know, we want to get this group into the postseason.”
/masslive

So ... that's that
 

Daniel_Son

Member
SoSH Member
May 25, 2021
1,806
San Diego
Except there wasn't a good chance he'd bounce back. Has anyone had a successful return after Lisfranc surgery?

A lot of us were mentioning it at the time.
Not sure about surgery, but I believe JD Martinez had a lisfranc injury in 2017 and he seemed to do just fine.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,817
deep inside Guido territory
Eovaldi would make some sense with the Yankees if they miss out on Castillo or Montas. They could use a rotation upgrade and have a deep farm system. Bloom and Cashman have worked out a trade previously for Ottavino.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

critical thinker
SoSH Member
Dec 19, 2009
9,402
Was he told that because he already agreed to waive the NTC? If he didn't, then he was personally told he wasn't getting by his agent, I guess?
 

Jungleland

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 2, 2009
2,384
Absolutely insane to me the Allen Craig trade was 7 years ago. I was absolutely for it at the time, and I was wrong.
 

GB5

New Member
Aug 26, 2013
707
By the way didn’t Lackey make it blatantly clear that he had no intention of playing here anymore which may have made things more difficult on the RS end?
 

E5 Yaz

polka king
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
91,463
Oregon

Jungleland

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 2, 2009
2,384
Wrong? That trade was instrumental in winning a World Series.

Meanwhile, Craig -- who played for the Cardinals and Red Sox -- is shown in a Padres cap on his BRef page. He was in ST with them after leaving Boston, but never in a regular season game

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/craigal01.shtml
Fair, and Joe Kelly was one of my favorite players during the 2018 run. What I should have said is I thought Allen Craig was an absolute steal, and that turned out to be incredibly incorrect.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,431
By the way didn’t Lackey make it blatantly clear that he had no intention of playing here anymore which may have made things more difficult on the RS end?
I thought it was that he didn't want to play here for the minimum salary, which negated most of his value, but I might be remembering wrong
 

sean1562

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 17, 2011
3,673

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,431
So they either get a pick at the end of the second round or the end of the fourth? Is there really a big difference there? Looking back quickly at the players we have drafted in like the last ten years in the 2nd and 4th rounds, the best I am seeing are like Matthew Lugo(2nd), Bobby Dalbec(4th), and Ty Buttrey(4th).
Expected difference in career WAR between a 2nd and a 4th is between 1-2 WAR, so not a huge difference, though getting extra 2nds gives them more pool money to be able to work with so it can't hurt.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
52,096
So they either get a pick at the end of the second round or the end of the fourth? Is there really a big difference there? Looking back quickly at the players we have drafted in like the last ten years in the 2nd and 4th rounds, the best I am seeing are like Matthew Lugo(2nd), Bobby Dalbec(4th), and Ty Buttrey(4th).
The slot value is over $800k for a 2nd rd comp pick and in the $400k range for a 4th. It’s a lot of extra wiggle room to maneuver and bring in tough signs.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
21,264
Maine
I love this man. Sign him to a team-friendly-ish contract over Boras’s objections, Chaim. Then back it up for Devers and go out and sign some people in the offseason.
Soooo, Xander doesn't get a say in things? It's only big, bad Boras that's standing in the way of extending Bogaerts on a "team-friendly-ish" deal? It's interesting how the player's autonomy is so often minimized when we discuss contracts. It's usually the GM for not going far enough to sign a player or it's the agent pushing for the most dollars and the player is just along for the ride either way.
 

Murderer's Crow

Dragon Wangler 216
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
23,861
Garden City
Who is the last player to get a real hometown discount? I know there are stories of O'Neill and Jeter but has anyone recent stayed somewhere for a significant discount?
 

amfox1

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2003
6,848
The back of your computer
Soooo, Xander doesn't get a say in things? It's only big, bad Boras that's standing in the way of extending Bogaerts on a "team-friendly-ish" deal? It's interesting how the player's autonomy is so often minimized when we discuss contracts. It's usually the GM for not going far enough to sign a player or it's the agent pushing for the most dollars and the player is just along for the ride either way.
Of course he gets a say. However, players don't hire Scott Boras as their agent because they're going to take a team-friendly discount. Not to say that it won't happen, but there is absolutely no evidence that X is staying on a team-friendly deal.

EDIT: I could see Boras finding a FA deal for X and then X asking Boras to go back to BOS to see if they will match it and, maybe then, taking a slight haircut to stay. But that's about it.
 
Last edited:

sezwho

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
2,079
Isle of Plum
The Rusney move seemed like a reaction to the Abreu success- especially since the Sox missed on him because they were in the WS at the time IIRC…. The Suzuki hunt seemed similar to me-
Lots of weirdness w/ Rusney situation though, and to the extent you can have sympathy for a guy w/ $73m, I actually do.

Rusney had relatively minimal negative impact on the club as his salary didn't count against payroll. I also still carry a torch that he could have been a decent player, but his salary outpaced his production to the point it never seemed in the Sox interest to bring him up and deal with corresponding impact to lux tax, etc.

/Rusney-stan
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
21,264
Maine
Of course he gets a say. However, players don't hire Scott Boras as their agent because they're going to take a team-friendly discount. Not to say that it won't happen, but there is absolutely no evidence that X is staying on a team-friendly deal.

EDIT: I could see Boras finding a FA deal for X and then X asking Boras to go back to BOS to see if they will match it and, maybe then, taking a slight haircut to stay. But that's about it.
That was more or less my point. Bogaerts hired Boras for a reason, and it wasn't to ignore/over-rule him to take a team-friendly discount. So the idea that it is Boras that needs to be overcome to get a deal done is naive at best. I imagine it's mostly a fan reaction to try to preserve the player as the "good guy" no matter the eventual outcome.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Lots of weirdness w/ Rusney situation though, and to the extent you can have sympathy for a guy w/ $73m, I actually do.

Rusney had relatively minimal negative impact on the club as his salary didn't count against payroll. I also still carry a torch that he could have been a decent player, but his salary outpaced his production to the point it never seemed in the Sox interest to bring him up and deal with corresponding impact to lux tax, etc.

/Rusney-stan
Decent player in what sense? If it weren't for his contract, he would have been a 4th OF on most teams. A regular? I doubt it.
 

sezwho

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
2,079
Isle of Plum
Decent player in what sense? If it weren't for his contract, he would have been a 4th OF on most teams. A regular? I doubt it.
Yes, that's right and I don't want to overstate the case. He likely wasn't ever going to be a star, but he would have been at least 4th and I thought could have developed into a starter. If he were a $3m guy, we would have actually got to find out.
 

ookami7m

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
5,756
Mobile, AL
Who is the last player to get a real hometown discount? I know there are stories of O'Neill and Jeter but has anyone recent stayed somewhere for a significant discount?
Jose Ramirez before this season is well below what he would have commanded on the open market.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
12,926
Hometown discounts usually occur well before a player hits free agency, don’t they? Are there examples of them occurring when a player is a free agent, or right prior?

(I guess there are the numerous Boras examples of guys like Varitek who he claims took less, but those generally seem lacking in details of offers from the mystery team).
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
25,691
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Decent player in what sense? If it weren't for his contract, he would have been a 4th OF on most teams. A regular? I doubt it.
Probably not a regular, but if you look at his development (with the layoff year), it's not certain he'd have followed the same path if, say, the Padres had given him another 200 ML PAs during his age 28 year. Or just had a different hitting coach.

Also, I think at some point early on he knew he was not going to get called up again unless he put up superstar numbers in AAA. His own contract became a glass ceiling he couldn't break through.

I'm just speculating, but he's still playing ball today at age 35 (cuban years) so I'd assume he loves the game on some level. I kind of doubt he's broke - he got 72 million to show up and play baseball for the Sox. Hard to get upset over anyone suffering through that fate. But I do kind of wish he'd gotten a chance somewhere else in the majors.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
25,253
I'd offer X the following two options TODAY:

Option #1: A 3-year, $90 million extension. That's more AAV than I'd like to spend, but the years are short, so I'm off the hook after just three more seasons and won't have to worry about a huge long-term commitment. And for X, it gives him a ton of money NOW, but also gives him the opportunity for one more FA deal when he just turns 33.

Option #2: A 6-year, $144 million extension. A lot lower AAV (just $24m per year) but $54 million more in guaranteed dollars than the first option. Gives the Sox a little more financial flexibility on a year-by-year basis.

I think both of those are reasonable. He's not a $30m a year player, but over 3 years, I am willing to eat that in order to keep him until Mayer is ready. If X turns both those down, then I'd take the next couple of days and try to trade him, because I wouldn't offer him any more than this, I don't think. (you could nibble on the edges but nothing substantive)
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
21,264
Maine
I'd offer X the following two options TODAY:

Option #1: A 3-year, $90 million extension. That's more AAV than I'd like to spend, but the years are short, so I'm off the hook after just three more seasons and won't have to worry about a huge long-term commitment. And for X, it gives him a ton of money NOW, but also gives him the opportunity for one more FA deal when he just turns 33.

Option #2: A 6-year, $144 million extension. A lot lower AAV (just $24m per year) but $54 million more in guaranteed dollars than the first option. Gives the Sox a little more financial flexibility on a year-by-year basis.

I think both of those are reasonable. He's not a $30m a year player, but over 3 years, I am willing to eat that in order to keep him until Mayer is ready. If X turns both those down, then I'd take the next couple of days and try to trade him, because I wouldn't offer him any more than this, I don't think. (you could nibble on the edges but nothing substantive)
Considering he's opting out of 3/$60M (4/$80 if the option were picked up), I'm not sure a 3/90 offer really does anything for him. Fairly certain he wants more years than three otherwise he'd not bother opting out.

Option #2 is basically the Story deal, which I think if he'd agree to that, they'd have sealed the deal already. He's looking for more than that. Whether he gets it is certainly still unanswerable, but I don't think it's a gamble he's unwilling to take right now.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
12,926
The Semien deal seems like a reasonable target. He got 7/175 for his age 31-37 years. Over the course of their careers, Bogaerts has been a better player (although Semien’s had the best and worst years of the two) and the contract would start with his age 30 year. 8/$200? I think that’s where you’d have to be to get a deal done this close to FA. Is that a deal folks would feel comfortable with?
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
16,724
Considering he's opting out of 3/$60M (4/$80 if the option were picked up), I'm not sure a 3/90 offer really does anything for him. Fairly certain he wants more years than three otherwise he'd not bother opting out.

Option #2 is basically the Story deal, which I think if he'd agree to that, they'd have sealed the deal already. He's looking for more than that. Whether he gets it is certainly still unanswerable, but I don't think it's a gamble he's unwilling to take right now.
It gives him...an extra $30m over opting in.

I assume he wants something longer term, but if he wants to bet on himself getting another big contract in 3 years, that's not chump change & obviously beats opting in.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
25,253
It gives him...an extra $30m over opting in.

I assume he wants something longer term, but if he wants to bet on himself getting another big contract in 3 years, that's not chump change & obviously beats opting in.
Exactly. I mean...$30 million extra dollars is....a lot of money. And unless he gets hurt or falls off a cliff there will be more FA money available for him at age 33.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
12,926
Exactly. I mean...$30 million extra dollars is....a lot of money. And unless he gets hurt or falls off a cliff there will be more FA money available for him at age 33.
But no 30 year old wants to be a free agent at 33 if they can lock in a deal until they are 37-38.It only makes sense to settle for that if you can’t get anything longer (if you are a top tier guy who wants flexibility to test market if it changes, you get an opt out and have best of both worlds).
 

Minneapolis Millers

Wants you to please think of the Twins fans!
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
4,753
Twin Cities
It gives him...an extra $30m over opting in.

I assume he wants something longer term, but if he wants to bet on himself getting another big contract in 3 years, that's not chump change & obviously beats opting in.
How about 6/$150, frontloaded, with an opt out after three years? Add an achievable player option for 1/$25. Beats Story’s deal and is arguably better than Semien’s.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
21,264
Maine
Exactly. I mean...$30 million extra dollars is....a lot of money. And unless he gets hurt or falls off a cliff there will be more FA money available for him at age 33.
He's already made $85M in his career. He's already turned down a 1/$20M extension to erase the opt-out. I really don't think an extra $30M is moving him. He's opting out so he doesn't have to test the 2025 free agent market at age 33.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
25,253
He's already made $85M in his career. He's already turned down a 1/$20M extension to erase the opt-out. I really don't think an extra $30M is moving him. He's opting out so he doesn't have to test the 2025 free agent market at age 33.
Fair enough. I'd still throw it out there because you never know. But that's why I offered the other deal too. I wouldn't go to 7 years or longer. I love X, and want him here for longer than the end of this season, but I don't think he's worth 7/189 or anything like that.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
16,724
But no 30 year old wants to be a free agent at 33 if they can lock in a deal until they are 37-38.It only makes sense to settle for that if you can’t get anything longer (if you are a top tier guy who wants flexibility to test market if it changes, you get an opt out and have best of both worlds).
I think you added the opt out thing after I first read this, but yeah I mean that's the optimal solution for the player.

If his 2 choices were really 3/$90m or 6/$144m, though, I would hope he thinks enough of his skills to take the 3/$90m & assume he'll make up the last 3/$54m easily on his next contract.

How about 6/$150, frontloaded, with an opt out after three years? Add an achievable player option for 1/$25. Beats Story’s deal and is arguably better than Semien’s.
Yeah, I think that's a great option for X but player options like that are obviously awful for the team as there's literally no upside & it seems from limited sample-size this FO isn't really into them.
 

amfox1

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2003
6,848
The back of your computer
I think anything below $30mm/yr is a non-starter in having X avoid going to FA.

EDIT: As to years, 3 is not enough, 4 may be the minimum (essentially, we're ignoring the opt-out and raising X's comp from $20mm-$30mm) but 5-6 sounds about right. Note that I am not advocating for this, just what I think it will take. Personally, I'd trade him now if the package is greater than the comp pick value.
 
Last edited:

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,341

amfox1

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2003
6,848
The back of your computer
Trading Nate and JDM would do it. I believe 65% of the season will be done as of Aug 2. $11.8mm divided by 35% equals $33.7mm. Nate and JDM make a total of $36.35mm and, presumably their replacements would make approx. $1.2mm.
 

BigJimEd

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
4,495
I think anything below $30mm/yr is a non-starter in having X avoid going to FA.

EDIT: As to years, 3 is not enough, 4 may be the minimum (essentially, we're ignoring the opt-out and raising X's comp from $20mm-$30mm) but 5-6 sounds about right. Note that I am not advocating for this, just what I think it will take. Personally, I'd trade him now if the package is greater than the comp pick value.
Agreed. You are going to have to overpay to convince X not to listen to other offers at this point.

Some of these offers might be worthwhile in the offseason but little reason for X to just accept them now.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
25,691
Miami (oh, Miami!)
I think anything below $30mm/yr is a non-starter in having X avoid going to FA.

EDIT: As to years, 3 is not enough, 4 may be the minimum (essentially, we're ignoring the opt-out and raising X's comp from $20mm-$30mm) but 5-6 sounds about right. Note that I am not advocating for this, just what I think it will take. Personally, I'd trade him now if the package is greater than the comp pick value.
I don't know about $30m per year, but I had earlier posted what I thought his absolute floor/minimum would be, based on 1) his current contract, and 2) the idea he'd actually opt out.

His current contract is for age 30, 31, 32, with a vesting option for 33. It's $20m per year, with the last year triggered by 535 PA during his age 32 season. Maybe 120(?) games to trigger. He probably thinks he's good for the vesting. So maybe we reasonably read his view of his current deal as essentially 4 years, $80m.

He will only opt out if he thinks he can improve on that. Minimum improvement: 5 years (age 30-35 seasons) for at least $20m per, for $100m total.

So, assuming he's serious about opting out, we can reasonably guess he's not going to entertain any offer from the Sox for less than that. He'll expect to get at least that as a FA (which is why he's opting out in the first place.)

But what what does he think he's really worth on the FA market? That's more nuanced and has to consider the teams willing to make offers, other FA SS, etc. But for back-of-the-envelope purposes, how about a rough comp of Trevor Story? 6 years, age 29-34, $140 guaranteed, team option for age 35 at $20 more than the $5m buyout. . .total $155m with option. Call it an AAV of $23 or $24m.

So (and this part is total spitballing) if Xander thinks he's a Trevor Story comp, he might seriously consider forgoing FA by signing for a guaranteed 5 years/$117 on the low end? 6/$144 for a mid-range? Something with a $25 AAV for a 5/6/7 year spread of $125/150/175?

I don't know if the Sox should go long at top dollar though - Devers, Story, Xander, Mayer (2025?). Moving parts.