Red Sox sign Masataka Yoshida
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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And now go down the list for the past few years.
And tell me if you're OK with only two rookies doing well next year.
Looking at the 2021 starting lineup:
Vazquez OPS is down 100 points from his career average and nearly 200 from his final seasons in Fenway.
Dalbec has flamed out. Prospects do that.
Arroyo has hovered mostly around his career average until this past season. But he's also a utility player and their season-to-season variation can be quite volatile.
Bogaerts has seen his OPS+ drop while in San Diego, but he also had a very slow start, so he's probably a push.
Devers progressed quite nicely until this past season.
Verdugo has essentially been the same player at the plate. Not better, not worse.
Enrique - well, you win that one.
Renfroe had one good year in Milwaukee, similar to that in Boston, then has been useless since.
JD had a nice revival in LA, but he's also 35.
Schwarber's 155 OPS+ with Boston remains his career best, although there is a sample size problem. He is a point for the anti-Bloom crowd, however.
Doubt the hitting coaches are a problem.
OPS+ (which is adjusted to ballpark) says otherwise. Devers, Verdugo, Martinez, McGuire, Arroyo, Story, Dalbec, Hernandez, Refsnyder. The list of stalled or backsliding or unredeemed players goes on and on and on. Except for Casas and Durran and maybe Duvall. And no, not all batters can improve or be salvaged. But there's a lot of guys there in their prime hitting years that just don't get better.
In prior years, Xander's been consistent. You can put that against a massive cast of characters who got a lot of ABs - presumably because in part the hitting coaches did NOT say - yeah, they're toast and we can't help. Gonzalez, Cordero, Chavis, Santana, etc. And some: Martinez, Hernandez, Benni, Pham, do better after they leave.
There is no record of excellence here. So yes, with the same staff and same approach, it will absolutely be more of the same.
I honestly don't know why people care to defend them. Why do you?
Well, Duran credits Pedroia rather than the red sox coaches. In fact, if you read between the lines, the red sox coaches might have contributed to his struggles.
https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/news/dustin-pedroia-fixed-jarren-durans-swing-with-expletive-ridden-coaching-session-scott7
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I still think Duran may be dumb as a rock, but this made me cheer for him even more. He seems to wear his heart on his sleeve and has been open about all his different types of struggles. I'm really rooting for him after really hating the guy in '22. I'm bullish on him as a LF/CF'er next season. I'm sure he won't have the BABiP that fueled his great stretch last season but think he can still keep a very high BA with his speed and hitting away from defenders which he seems to have embraced rather than swinging for power and then to provide tremendous additional value in his speed once he gets on. I can easily see him hit .310 with tons of doubles
Turning all those singles into doubles is just so incredible to watch IMO. It's like when Mookie would do stuff like steal second and third because the third baseman wandered away from the bag while he was stealing second. MLB players do lots of incredible things but it's extra cool to see guys using their really elite athleticism in new ways.
I know that playing station to station and hitting a HR is the safest way to win and it's hard not to be excited when your team wins even if it's by 4 straight walks... but I really miss the high batting average, stolen base era. Whatever your thoughts are about Duran, he was fun as hell to watch when he was on his streak and it coincided with the team performing at it's best. I still, probably incorrectly, think there some value in having a guy like him at 1st or 2nd (with first base empty) that doesn't show up in stats. The pitcher just won't be as focused on throwing as he would with a guy who isn't going to steal.
I will add that in 2021, the entire team began to have better approaches at the plate (Dalbec especially but not only him) once Schwarber came on board.
Some of these guys are just not good hitters. Like Refsnyder? Really? He was 31 when he got here and had spent a number of years in Japan because he couldnt hit in the US the first time around. Hes an incredibly limited hitter.
Mcguire? He got here after three years of service time from 2018 through mid 2022 where he didnt hit. Hes continued to not hit here. Theres a reason Chicago was willing to give him away - hes a fungible defense first backup catcher.
Kike was 29 when he got here and had 6 full years or service. He had been a below average bat over the course of his career and was prone to quality right handed pitching. 670 v. 800 OPS split over his career.
Dalbec had a massive question mark his entire time in the system - he always struck out way too much at every level. Its not like hes someone who scouts loved at any point.
The hitting coaches may or may not be good, but pointing to guys who no one ever thought were going to be above average (or even average) hitters isnt a great way to evidence the thought. Verdugo may be a good point here as he was always supposed to have solid average raw power and its never showed up, but theres a fair amount of smoke around his make up/work effort that it seems like a lot to
TLDR - attributing significant impact to coaching when Occams razer is that a lot of these guys arent very good hitting talents is silly.
And no, not all batters can improve or be salvaged. But there's a lot of guys there in their prime hitting years that just don't get better.
And I would say my biggest argument is the overall approach... how many guys did we strand at third base with 1 out or less.... coaches might not be able to turn an average or below average player into an all star... but they could coach players about situational hitting and hitting a damn fly ball... these things are coachable I think
I guess? You're including a number of guys that 3,4,5 organizations havent made good or even average hitters. It seems silly to even include them in the beginning. When you remove them and the past prime guys, the list starts to look a lot smaller and is primarily focused around Verdugo (and maybe Dalbec depending on how much you believe there was ever anything that could be done about his strikeouts). I tend to think Dalbecs swing and miss was a fatal flaw, but others can vary there I guess. I agree Verdugo should be able to drive the ball more.
Reese has been the same bad hitter in now his third organization. Arroyo has been the same all over the place hitter over four organizations. Refsnyder was 31 in his first year on the Sox, on his sixth MLB organization plus a stint in Japan and never had any sustained hitting success in MLB. For guys like that there is really zero reason to think there is any failure on the part of the hitting coaching as compared to thinking thats just who the guy is. Or if you think there is, basically every organization is having the same failure.
At some point attributing a failure like that to coaching rather than a lack of player talent is a really silly way of going about it.
To be clear, I have no problem with them clearing house and bringing new hitting coaches, but I dont think the primary problem with most of these guys. Most of them aren't going to be good with the best coaching around because they're very limited hitters and limited hitters have low upside and high variance between being fringe average and bad. Hell a number of these guys have had multiple different Red Sox hitting coaches.
You seem to think I'm arguing guys Chang should go from a 75-90 OPS+ hitter to a 110 OPS+ hitter or something.
I'm not.
I'm pointing out that Chang (as an example) descended to a 45 OPS+ hitter under the tutelage and supervision of the Sox hitting coaches.
Go down the list yourself. Average is transformed to meh. And meh to crap. It's like magic.
Yu Chang has 600 career plate appearances for a total OPS+ of 70 spread over five seasons. Guys with limited plate appearances and limited hitting talent are going to have significant variance from fringe average to terrible in small samples per year. Specific to Yu Chang had a similar number of plate appearances in his first two years... and a OPS+ in the 40s.
Part of that variance is small samples over numerous seasons and part of its that they are just not good hitters. Attributing that variance somehow to bad coaching is a well a... massive leap.
The fact were discussing Yu Chang is part of the whole point. No one thinks he can hit and is why he is a plus infield defender who can be waived with no one else picking him up. Sometimes when the entire MLB scouting community speaks, we should listen.
Edit: Are we seriously discussing whether the hitting coach is bad because Yu Chang was epic shitty rather than terrible over his 100 PAs? This shouldnt be what a hitting coach is focusing on to begin with. Focus on guys who arent end of the roster depth.
You're missing the forrest for the trees. No one got better. Even the shrubs wilted.
But Duran directly said that Pedroia was the person who helped him adjust his swing so that he was making better contact. Not the hitting coaches. And Casas just needed some time to acclimate as he has always been a good hitter. I saw no changes in his approach that would suggest that he was helped by the coaches...
That ludicrous. I am neither a Bloom booster nor a Bloom basher, but if Yoshida performs well, even the bashers won't care that he's a Bloom guy.
I think the coaching staff should get credit for ensuring that Casas was given the time and support to smoothly adjust to the big leagues.
-Duran boucned back at some point in the season after dipping, so that counts, perhaps. Even if Pedroia was the one who retooled his swing.
-Casas had a fairly long rookie adjustment period after a hot start last season, and then he hit in line with his projections. So it's a valid question as to how much the coaches helped him.
If you look at the entire roster from 2022 to 2023, they're either treading water, backsliding, or declining. Guys who leave improve. Guys who are on-boarded seldom do well, or as well as might be reasonably expected. That's a problem, no matter who brings it to your attention.
I assume hes talking about JD? Which is a bit of a stretch given year to year volatility and how well he played here for a number of years.
Also saying Casas hit in line with projections is quite frankly a bit insane. 23 year old rookies who post 130 OPS+s are pretty rare and the team certainly worked him through his early year struggles quite successfully.
Edit: I dont think its at all reasonable to think that Casa's mid line projection for his rookie season was a 130 OPS+. Maybe the 75th or 80th percentile projection. ZIPS projection for 23 was 256/352/440. He obviously significantly outplayed that (263/367/490)
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Yeah, Mike, his final line is just so completely out of proportion to what he did before, "insane" is a totally fair word to describe it.
Quite frankly, you'd have to be a real fucking nutso if you weren't jaw-droppingly shocked at what he did.
I mean, talk about categorically blowing the curve right off the map in just about every single thing.
Code:
Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
2018 18 BOS-min Rk 2 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0 0 RES * GULF
2019 19 BOS-min AA+ 120 500 429 66 110 26 5 20 81 3 2 58 118 .256 .350 .480 .830 206 11 7 0 6 3 GRVSAL * SALLCARL
2021 21 BOS-min AAAAA 86 371 308 63 86 15 3 14 59 7 3 57 71 .279 .394 .484 .877 149 7 3 0 3 0 PRTWOR * AANEAAAE
2022 22 BOS-min AAARk 76 334 278 48 78 23 1 12 41 0 0 49 70 .281 .389 .500 .889 139 4 3 0 4 4 WORRES * ILFCL
2022 22 BOS AL 27 95 76 11 15 1 0 5 12 1 0 19 23 .197 .358 .408 .766 113 31 4 0 0 0 0 3/H
2023 23 BOS AL 132 502 429 66 113 21 2 24 65 0 0 70 126 .263 .367 .490 .856 129 210 7 1 0 2 2 *3H/D
2 Yrs 159 597 505 77 128 22 2 29 77 1 0 89 149 .253 .365 .477 .842 126 241 11 1 0 2 2
162 Game Avg. 162 608 515 78 130 22 2 30 78 1 0 91 152 .253 .365 .477 .842 126 246 11 1 0 2 2Generated 10/28/2023.
JD went back to his hitting coach that gave him a career, Pham and Hernandez are each 50 game sample sizes (and Pham's post-trade this year looks a whole lot like his Sox stint), so if you're going to count them I think you need to count people like Iglesias and Schwarber too. Beni's 2021-2022 look exactly like his pre-2020 years.
Wrc+ before and after leaving:
X: 133, 120
Renfroe: 113, 124, 92
Plawecki: 100, 60
Vazquez: 99, 65
Franchy: 92, 81
JBJ: 118, 36, 56 (back again), 2. Even his awful 57 wrc+ posted in his return was a better mark than what he's done for any other team.
Baseball-Reference isn't all that hard to use. If folks want to look at the Sox hitting and say that this is a really good situation that shouldn't be changed, that's just fine.
JD Martinez OPS+ in full seasons since 2018
173
139
128
117
134
Not sure I see the point you are making here.
Kike has been all over the pace throughout his career, he went back to LA and had a 95 OPS+, better than he did in Boston this year or last, but much worse than he did in Boston in 2021.
173
139
128
117
134
Not sure I see the point you are making here.
Kike has been all over the pace throughout his career, he went back to LA and had a 95 OPS+, better than he did in Boston this year or last, but much worse than he did in Boston in 2021.
OK. No one who left ever improved.
You win. The hitting will be great next year.
We can move on to something else now.
Some guys who left improved, some guys who left got worse. Some guys who joined them got better, some guys who joined them got worse. Which is also true for 29 other teams.
Nah, that's just not true. Nobody who left improved. I have it on good authority.
More seriously, nobody's going to change their opinion on this, so it's not worth discussing.
If that was the test for discussion, there would be a lot less discussion. But I would assume people will be less entrenched on this issue than most.
I included his ZIPS projections... It was 70 points of OPS lower than what he did. Not sure what more you want. The median level for Casas as a rookie was not a 130 OPS+. He had a legitimately great rookie season that should not have been expected day 1.
If you want to dispute that maybe at least provide some evidence that there was some publicly available model or projection that had him putting up the numbers he did. Or you can just troll on your embedded position that the hitting instruction has infinite number of failures and no successes.
Edit: Casas didnt qualify, but if we filter 1B with a minimum of 400 PAs (e.g., close to a full season) on Fangraphs, Casas's wRC+ of 129 was... 9th in MLB. It was a legitimately great rookie season and while people may have hoped for that, I dont think there was any reasonable median expectation that Casas would be that good of a hitter in year 1.
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No, it’s because he has played 137 of 324 games with a 685 OPS and is receiving $150M. It’s Sandoval v2 so far.
What's been shown is that some players get better in Boston, some get better after they leave Boston, and others get worse after they leave the team. And a lot of small sample sizes make any real trend be too hard to discern above the statistical noise. Probably nearly every other team in MLB has similar track records.
The hitting coaches may or may not be any good. But their presence or absence is probably #226 on the list of things for this team to worry about.
The hitting coaches may or may not be any good. But their presence or absence is probably #226 on the list of things for this team to worry about.
LOL ok dude. Keep thinking that 130 OPS+ bat rookies grow on trees and should be median expectations for any rookie. Statistical models (which tend aggressive if anything) didnt have that as the projection for him, but live in your ignorance.
Yes. A guy who had -1.6 bWAR for $90m (too lazy to do the inflation math) is super comparable to a guy who already has 3.3 bWAR & hasn't yet been released.
Yes. But of course he obviously won't be because he's not a negative value player. Which Sandoval was every year of his deal.
If we're going to make lazy comparisons to recent bad contracts, Hanley is a bit closer...1.7 bWAR in 4 seasons ($88m), but even that isn't particularly close.
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The issue has nothing to do with Casas... I believe most of not all of us are shocked and happy with his performance last year. And hope he only continues to improve. But that doesn't mean the hitting coach was integral to his progression... he could have succeeded despite their coaching. We honestly don't know unless he comes out and comments on it. However, hanging your hat on the fact that just because he was a rookie and did well must mean our hitting coaches are awesome seems an incredible stretch...
Also, isn't Casas a bit of an outlier in all of this. I'm sure that the hitting coaches have worked with him as he's progressed through the ranks, but hasn't it also been fairly well reported that Casas is a player who very much has his own approach toward hitting?
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/triston-casas-embraces-the-science-of-hitting/
The poster claimed that Casas only produced at a level expected. That is what I was responding to. I have no idea how integral if at all the coaching was to that performance (though I suspect there was some at least minimal positive influence). Just like I don’t assume that Christian Arroyo, Reece Mcquire, and Rob Refsnyder can’t hit because the coaching is bad.
Edit: To be clear, Rovin clearly stated that Casas performed as expected. When questioned and shown that the ZIPS projection for him was 75 points lower than actual, he disregarded it and reiterated that everyone expected what happened with zero evidence of any projections that had Casas at that level.
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I do so wish a Mod would move a lot of these posts to their own thread so that those of us who are Masa fans don't click in vain for news/opinions about him. .