Red Sox sign James Paxton (old thread)

Red(s)HawksFan

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Advocating for what? If the Sox had the option for next year for $4m and they had to decide today then yes 100% I'd want them to pick it up, I think most here would as well, because the worst case is it's $4m which has no impact on next year's roster and the best case is getting a good pitcher for $4m.

He gave them nothing this year for $6m and there's no reason to think that lost money hurt the 2022 team.
But the $4M option isn't up to the Red Sox, it's up to Paxton. If he wants to stay for $4M, I have no problem with that. That money is already on the books (the 2022 cap hit of $10M includes it) as spent. $4M is a drop in the bucket and potentially a bargain if he can perform at all.

What should be off the table, and no one is arguing otherwise, is the 2/26 option that the Sox hold. It would be fool-hardy to commit to spend $26M on James Paxton at this point. PJF is railing against a strawman. No one is advocating for that strawman.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Wonder what the largest amount of money made by a player who never played for the team is? I’m struggling to think of other examples…
 

moondog80

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I can’t think of any but there must be guys who signed one year deals and got hurt in spring training.
 

scottyno

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Wonder what the largest amount of money made by a player who never played for the team is? I’m struggling to think of other examples…
Mark Appel made more, not sure if any other rookies got a bigger bonus to never appear with the big club or before being traded for something of use.
 

nvalvo

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What should be off the table, and no one is arguing otherwise, is the 2/26 option that the Sox hold. It would be fool-hardy to commit to spend $26M on James Paxton at this point. PJF is railing against a strawman. No one is advocating for that strawman.
I wouldn't say I'm advocating for it, but I wouldn't be shocked if they picked it up.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Glasnow signed a 2 year extension, the next year is only like $5M. He’s also five years younger than JP, and was excellent just a year ago.

the idea that the Sox have seen Paxton and may have any real kind of idea if he will be good or not is nice in theory, but I think the science is far less exact than that. They don’t have a compelling track record with these kinds of things lately.

Bottom line, he’s in his mid 30s and threw 0 innings this year, and 20 in the past three. The 1 year, $4 lM option Paxton holds seems like fair value; if he thinks he can get more than that, he should go for it. But picking up the 2/$26 seems nuts- no one is going to give him anything nets that on the open market (I don’t think).
 
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GB5

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My guess is that he would get more than 1/4 on the open market. His solid track record when healthy will buy him more than 1/4. Every GM is arrogant enough to think that they will have the answer through their training system to keep him healthy and productive.
 

YTF

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As your pic shows, the latissimus dorsi tendon inserts onto the humerus (arm bone).

Not an uncommon injury for pitchers these days.
Fair enough and you would know better than most. Not questioning the possibility of of the tear being in the area that you mention, but as a large muscle is the lat also attached to other areas of the body. There's no copay in play here because I'm not close to meeting my deductible, so go easy on me.
 

radsoxfan

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Fair enough and you would know better than most. Not questioning the possibility of of the tear being in the area that you mention, but as a large muscle is the lat also attached to other areas of the body. There's no copay in play here because I'm not close to meeting my deductible, so go easy on me.
No worries, I can see how a pic would make it look confusing, definitely a large broad muscle that fans out.

But we catch the insertion on routine shoulder MRIs and I see it injured occasionally in pitchers.

Definitely a better option than another elbow issue, if there’s any silver lining.
 

moondog80

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I can’t be the only one who was initially freaked out by the bumping of this thread.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I can’t be the only one who was initially freaked out by the bumping of this thread.
At this point, it’s another pie in the face for Bloom. In and of itself, it wasn’t terrible thinking…. But as others have pointed out- combined with the JBJ deal, they could have kept the status quo in RF and added Rodon and those combined were probably enough for a playoff spot.

I can’t see any team taking a chance on him for anything more than Paxton’s opt-in. If he does, there’s still time to get value out of him. It’s likely his last chance to show he can be healthy and good for another 2-3 year deal afterwards
 

jon abbey

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But as others have pointed out- combined with the JBJ deal, they could have kept the status quo in RF and added Rodon
So you think Rodon, a lefty pitcher, was going to sign with BOS for a one year deal to try to prove he was worthy of a huge deal? That seems pretty unlikely to me.
 

scottyno

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At this point, it’s another pie in the face for Bloom. In and of itself, it wasn’t terrible thinking…. But as others have pointed out- combined with the JBJ deal, they could have kept the status quo in RF and added Rodon and those combined were probably enough for a playoff spot.

I can’t see any team taking a chance on him for anything more than Paxton’s opt-in. If he does, there’s still time to get value out of him. It’s likely his last chance to show he can be healthy and good for another 2-3 year deal afterwards
This math isn't really close to right, so others should probably not point it out.

JBJ+Paxton was 18m this in 2021 salaries, Rodon+Renfroe was 29m.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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This math isn't really close to right, so others should probably not point it out.

JBJ+Paxton was 18m this year, Rodon+Renfroe was 29m.
Didn’t they pay JBJ his buyout last year? Which would make the JBJ+Paxton amount more like $25M?

Regardless, if they wanted to dump Renfroe because of his salary, trading him for a lesser player at the same position who is guaranteed 2-3x as much was a weird move.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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This math isn't really close to right, so others should probably not point it out.

JBJ+Paxton was 18m this in 2021 salaries, Rodon+Renfroe was 29m.
Well that changes things.... but, if they were adding Rodon, would that have made Hill necessary? Presumably they still would have needed to add another guy to stash in the pen as a depth starter so I don't know. I'm over 2022 in every way.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Didn’t they pay JBJ his buyout last year? Which would make the JBJ+Paxton amount more like $25M?

Regardless, if they wanted to dump Renfroe because of his salary, trading him for a lesser player at the same position who is guaranteed 2-3x as much was a weird move.
The only salary figures that should really matter are the AAVs used to calculate the luxury tax. JBJ's buyout was already figured into the AAV so it should be irrelevant.

JBJ's 2022 cap hit was $12M. Paxton's was $10M. Total of $22M for CBT calculations. Rodon's CBT number was $22M and presumably the Sox would have had to top that to get him. So Renfroe+Rodon is not a savings compared to JBJ+Paxton. It might have been more productive but it would have also been more expensive and probably still doesn't put the Sox in the post-season if all else remained the same.