Red Sox sign James Paxton (old thread)

HomeRunBaker

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Nothing? The A's traded him to the Dodgers (w/Josh Reddick) and Frankie Montas was among the prospects in the return. I think the A's did okay.
I stand corrected. I had thought LA signed him as a FA instead of trading for and re-signing him. I am still a buyer on Paxton so I’m excited to see his new arm.
 

joe dokes

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Who writes this shit, part n+1:
James Paxton is set to pitch in his first game in almost two years.
The veteran southpaw will begin a rehab assignment with the rookie-level Florida Complex League Red Sox on Thursday, according to Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. It will mark his first appearance since he tore his UCL during a start with the Seattle Mariners on April 6, 2021.
I need a new calendar.
 

joe dokes

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Probably really meant two seasons. Missed 90% of last year, 75% of this year (so far). But yeah, sports writing and editing isn’t generally high quality!
I'll stop beating this dead horse (there are so many others to get to!)....Speier's original article said "499 days." I'm not a fan of the "oh, so many days" construct, but whoever cribbed the piece for nbcsb obviously didn't want to just repeat it. Your "2 seasons" point is probably correct, but from my dim view of humanity perspective, I'm going to assume that the non-Speier person thought 500 days is 2 years.

Regardless, its good news.
 

moondog80

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Let's wait and see on the details, but it's looking more and more like it's going to be a tough two year option to pick up.

In a vacuum I have no issue with taking risks like Paxton and the JBJ trade, even if they don't pay off (and though neither like great at the moment, they still might). I have a problem doing with a team that has playoff expectations and very glaring holes at 1B and RF.
 

nvalvo

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I'd wait for the rending of garments until we get an actual diagnosis. Sometimes (as in John Lackey's return from injury) these apparent reinjuries are just scar tissue from the surgery breaking up. Not always, of course.
 

Ganthem

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Saves at least nine mil that way, at least. Pretty brutal off-season Bloom had. No other way to put.
Wait you are not happy with Wacha or Schrieber? What about Hill? Granted Story has been injured, but when he did play he was a revelation at second base. End of the day if you enjoy it when the team finds diamonds in the rough, that is going to mean there are going to be a few swings and misses.
 

moondog80

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Wait you are not happy with Wacha or Schrieber? What about Hill? Granted Story has been injured, but when he did play he was a revelation at second base. End of the day if you enjoy it when the team finds diamonds in the rough, that is going to mean there are going to be a few swings and misses.
The difference with the JBJ and Paxton dals is that they had a significantly higher cost, and by design any potential payoff was coming down the road. It's a balance, you have build for today and tomorrow at the same time. But lottery tickets are a luxury, and the Sox still had necessities to take care of.
 

scottyno

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The difference with the JBJ and Paxton dals is that they had a significantly higher cost, and by design any potential payoff was coming down the road. It's a balance, you have build for today and tomorrow at the same time. But lottery tickets are a luxury, and the Sox still had necessities to take care of.
How did Paxton have a signicantly higher cost than either Wacha or Hill? They were all small to medium length 1 year guaranteed deals. Also, arguing that coming into the season they had a "glaring hole" at 1b is ridiculous.

You can obvious argue they could have signed someone else for RF, but I don't see how spending had anything to do with them not doing that.
 

moondog80

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How did Paxton have a signicantly higher cost than either Wacha or Hill? They were all small to medium length 1 year guaranteed deals. Also, arguing that coming into the season they had a "glaring hole" at 1b is ridiculous.
We can quibble over the definition of "significant" but Paxton was being paid 10 mil (as far as the tax was concerned anyway) while Wacha was getting 7 and Hill was getting 5, and the latter two were on track to start the season in the rotation (and did).
 

scottyno

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We can quibble over the definition of "significant" but Paxton was being paid 10 mil (as far as the tax was concerned anyway) while Wacha was getting 7 and Hill was getting 5, and the latter two were on track to start the season in the rotation (and did).
But in reality Paxton was being paid 6 mil, compared to 7 for Wacha, and Hill had 5 gtd with incentives for 3 more. Sox made no real effort to get under the tax this season, so I don't think tax number is very relevant.

Paxton also had much higher expected upside than those other 2. Hill has been mediocre as most would have expected, and literally no one saw this season coming for Wacha, but it was very easy to see a scenario where Paxton was a good pitcher for the Sox in 23 and 24.
 

moondog80

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But in reality Paxton was being paid 6 mil, compared to 7 for Wacha, and Hill had 5 gtd with incentives for 3 more. Sox made no real effort to get under the tax this season, so I don't think tax number is very relevant.

Paxton also had much higher expected upside than those other 2. Hill has been mediocre as most would have expected, and literally no one saw this season coming for Wacha, but it was very easy to see a scenario where Paxton was a good pitcher for the Sox in 23 and 24.
Yes, I get that the upside was greater. That's why I don't mind the deal in isolation. But it was upside that would be realized mostly in 2023 and 2024.

Put another way -- if by some stroke of luck David Price's 16 million was wiped from their books the day after the World Series, do you really think they still would have broken camp with JBJ as the RF? Was he best RF they could get period, or the best RF they could get given their financial constraints?
 

curly2

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Wait you are not happy with Wacha or Schrieber? What about Hill? Granted Story has been injured, but when he did play he was a revelation at second base. End of the day if you enjoy it when the team finds diamonds in the rough, that is going to mean there are going to be a few swings and misses.
Story has been fabulous in the field. Offensively, the .289 OPB and 28 BB to 105 Ks are not good and nearly all of his production came in an insane hot streak. I think his offense will be better next year -- hope he shows a little more plate discipline -- but at $140 million, he's no diamond in the rough.
 

scottyno

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Yes, I get that the upside was greater. That's why I don't mind the deal in isolation. But it was upside that would be realized mostly in 2023 and 2024.

Put another way -- if by some stroke of luck David Price's 16 million was wiped from their books the day after the World Series, do you really think they still would have broken camp with JBJ as the RF? Was he best RF they could get period, or the best RF they could get given their financial constraints?
What financial constraints? When camp broke they were already over the tax and had a base payroll of over $200m, when you're already at that point what's a few million more?

Considering it seems like they were in on Suzuki before he signed a deal just before camp broke that to date looks pretty awful I don't see where these constraints really came into play. They were also talking to Pham who didn't sign until even later than Suzuki, but at the price he ended up signing for it wouldn't have made a ton of sense for the Sox at the time as a part time player.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Wait you are not happy with Wacha or Schrieber? What about Hill? Granted Story has been injured, but when he did play he was a revelation at second base. End of the day if you enjoy it when the team finds diamonds in the rough, that is going to mean there are going to be a few swings and misses.
Yeah, this is a good point. Even Theo’s 02/03 off-season had some clunkers (keeping and starting Hillenbrand, Giambi). But he brought in more quantity - some of which, you know, paid off - and moved on more quickly to address roster issues and gaps (Hillenbrand for Kim).

Bloom probably should have found one more 1B/OF option, but we’ve already discussed the fact that he was going to give Dalbec, Franchy, and Duran more run, see if a healthy Arroyo could help in multiple spots, and wait on Casas. There are only so many spots to go around. He probably shopped too much in the injury, improvement, and bounce back bargain bins, but even there we’d be in a better spot if we’d had fewer in-season injuries and slightly better performance from lineup fixtures like JD, X, and Verdugo. If 75% of your moves and players slightly underperform, you’re likely to collectively underperform.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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So Pham at $6-$7.5M wouldn’t have made sense, yet Jackie for what, $16M between this year and next, and Paxton for $10m did? Their biggest flaw was believing Jackie was an every day player. It’s nice that they eventually fixed the problem, albeit a little late. Oh well, live and learn.
 

moondog80

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What financial constraints? When camp broke they were already over the tax and had a base payroll of over $200m, when you're already at that point what's a few million more?

Considering it seems like they were in on Suzuki before he signed a deal just before camp broke that to date looks pretty awful I don't see where these constraints really came into play. They were also talking to Pham who didn't sign until even later than Suzuki, but at the price he ended up signing for it wouldn't have made a ton of sense for the Sox at the time as a part time player.
So you are saying that JBJ is simply the best RF they could have gotten, and if David Price's was wiped from the books, it wouldn't have made a difference?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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So Pham at $6-$7.5M wouldn’t have made sense, yet Jackie for what, $16M between this year and next, and Paxton for $10m did? Their biggest flaw was believing Jackie was an every day player. It’s nice that they eventually fixed the problem, albeit a little late. Oh well, live and learn.
Pham at $6-7.5M after already committing to JBJ is what wouldn't make sense. Sequencing matters here, not just the dollar amounts. If he doesn't acquire JBJ, maybe Pham is an easier deal to do. Of course, no JBJ might mean Renfroe is still around so maybe there's still no need for Pham at that point.
 

scottyno

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So you are saying that JBJ is simply the best RF they could have gotten, and if David Price's was wiped from the books, it wouldn't have made a difference?
They were interested in a right fielder who the Cubs ended up paying $20m a year for when you include the posting fee. And that was after knowing what they were paying JBJ. So I'm saying that at that point financial constraints weren't very relevant, unless you think the Sox misread the market so much that they thought they could have got Suzuki for peanuts.
 

scottyno

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So Pham at $6-$7.5M wouldn’t have made sense, yet Jackie for what, $16M between this year and next, and Paxton for $10m did? Their biggest flaw was believing Jackie was an every day player. It’s nice that they eventually fixed the problem, albeit a little late. Oh well, live and learn.
Paxton for 6 (not 10) only made sense because it came with the option years. Jackie's contract only made sense because they liked the prospects it came with. The fact that they were trying to sign Suzuki kind of shows that they weren't that confident in Jackie as an every day player, but once they didn't get Suzuki it looks like they decided it didn't make sense to pay Pham that kind of money to be a backup and to just wait and see what JBJ and Duran looked like during the season.
 

moondog80

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They were interested in a right fielder who the Cubs ended up paying $20m a year for when you include the posting fee. And that was after knowing what they were paying JBJ. So I'm saying that at that point financial constraints weren't very relevant, unless you think the Sox misread the market so much that they thought they could have got Suzuki for peanuts.
Why didn't they sign Joc Pederson or Tommy Pham or Andrew McCutchen and simply tell JBJ he was going to be a defensive replacement (or release him)? Or just keep Hunter Renfroe and find another way to take on dead money to buy some C+ prospects? Is the answer simply that they thought JBJ was the best player of those guys?
 
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Petagine in a Bottle

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I think it was pretty clear that at the very least, JBJ needed a platoon mate- it’s why I was pushing for Pham in the off-season. It’s possible that he wouldn’t have wanted such a role to start the season, but by all accounts, Bloom never made him an offer. I know many think JBJ was acquired to be a backup (I don’t), if so, is there any logic as to why they never acquired an actual starter….and why they released JBJ only once he was finally in a part time role?

They liked Jackie as a starter, they thought he would be guy he was before 2021, and had no real backup plan. It is what it is.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Going back to before the season started, they expected JD to play some OF (he started 35 games in OF last year) and either he or Arroyo was going to play RF against lefty pitchers. Everything seemed fine with Arroyo playing OF in spring training.

The Red Sox are pleased with Arroyo’s quick progress in right field.
“He’s taken to it really well,” Red Sox bench coach and outfield instructor Will Venable said here Saturday. “His attitude about it has been great. When we first mentioned it to him, he jumped at the opportunity and he has come to me every day wanting to do early work. He’s really responded to his training. He looks great. He’s a great athlete. We talk about doing the same things that he does to get ready for the pitch in the outfield as he does in the infield.... He’s an athlete and he’s going to figure it out.
“I think he looks great,” Venable added. “The way he’s moving, it’s been nice to see.”

It's not accurate to say that they planned on Bradley playing RF every day. That specifically was not the plan as of April.

The Red Sox, for now, plan to try to keep Arroyo in right field whenever he’s asked to play the outfield. J.D. Martinez or Arroyo is expected to play right vs. lefties. Alex Verdugo has the ability to move from left to right sometimes but Cora said he prefers to keep him in left, his best defensive position.
Arroyo started 16 games in RF, all but one before the end of June.

But JD's barely been able to run all season, and Arroyo couldn't make the transition to OF. If either had worked out, then Bradley would have had fewer at-bats, and more times coming in as a defensive replacement.
Neither of those worked out at all, but they were actual options that were part of the OF picture before the season. Add them to the list of things that blew up.
Another OF backup plan in place before the season, in case Bradley couldn't bounce back, JD couldn't play the field, Duran didn't hit, Franchy didn't hit, and Arroyo couldn't handle OF, was to have Refsnyder, vet RH outfielder, stashed in AAA. As it turned out, that one actually worked great. Until Refsnyder got hurt and missed a bunch of games.
 

scottyno

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Why didn't they sign Joc Pederson or Tommy Pham or Andrew McCutchen and simply tell JBJ he was going to be a defensive replacement (or release him)? Or just keep Hunter Renfroe and find another way to take on dead money to buy some C+ prospects? Is the answer simply that they thought JBJ was the best player of those guys?
Because they didn't think it made sense to pay those guys to be maybe slightly better than the options they already had? And probably because those guys wanted more stable starting jobs.
 

McSweeny

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Pham said recently that he had discussions with Bloom in the offseason and Bloom just never moved forward with signing him.
Pham said they negotiated but Bloom wouldn’t pay Pham what he could get elsewhere. Whether you think that’s a valid reason or not, it’s why Bloom didn’t end up signing him.
 

JM3

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I'm mostly a Bloom apologist - but it always felt like they needed another outfielder the moment they traded Renfroe for JBJ & I was pretty surprised to find out there wasn't another one coming.

Most of the Bloom bashers also bashed Bloom for not re-signing JBJ to begin with & thinking they could replace him with Renfroe, but then also bashed him for getting 2 prospects to undo that previous "mistake". I think probably a recency bias thing mostly. & general grumpiness.

I still think the Paxton outlay is a great gamble because he actually has a ton of upside & yeah, we spent some of the owners $ to lock in that 2 year option... but so what?
 

scottyno

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Pham said recently that he had discussions with Bloom in the offseason and Bloom just never moved forward with signing him.
He made sense at a small backup salary. He didn't make much sense at the salary he actually got from the Reds when the Sox had 4 internal options to cover right field. Once all 4 of those options failed, got hurt, or were no longer realistic options in right then Pham at that price made sense.
 

mauf

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Wait you are not happy with Wacha or Schrieber? What about Hill? Granted Story has been injured, but when he did play he was a revelation at second base. End of the day if you enjoy it when the team finds diamonds in the rough, that is going to mean there are going to be a few swings and misses.
Story had a 792 OPS from May 15 on, which is in line with what preseason expectations should have been. (Because of the move from Colorado and the down year in 2021, actual expectations were all over the map.) If Story was playing above average D at shortstop, that production would be well worth the $24M/year price tag. At second base, it really isn’t. And that’s before you get into the injury and the lost first month of the season, which of course do count, and made his actual value much less.

Story will enter the 2023 season at age 30, four years removed from his last elite offensive season, and with question marks about his ability to play the position he pretty much needs to play to have any hope of justifying his contract. There’s still a chance it works out well, but while Chaim would never admit it publicly, he wouldn’t sign Story again if he had a do-over. No way.

I’m still a Chaim supporter, but his 2021-22 off-season was at least as bad as his 2020-21 off-season was good.