Why? Doesn't seem like the Marlins style to sign a guy for $8.5M for one year in order to trade a younger, cheaper starter who has years of control left.
Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding
- Thread starter jcormjmac
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It certainly does if that younger cheaper starter leads to even younger and cheaper position players.
Cueto is still very productive too, and maybe they catch lighting in a bottle with him in the first half.
Very high flip candidate at the deadline.
That's kind of the amusing thing about this thread, pretty much everything that the Sox have done this off-season has had no chatter beforehand. I think the general rule of thumb is if you hear a rumor about the Sox, it isn't going to happen. Bloom and Co. have a cone of silence over Fenway.
I have recently come into possession of the Marlin's Grand Strategy as rendered on the white-board of their main meeting room, and snapped by an unknown person. With reckless disregard for the consequences to myself, SFL fandom, and the Marlin's organization, I post it here for all.
I thought the Mariners signed Pollock?I have recently come into possession of the Marlin's Grand Strategy as rendered on the white-board of their main meeting room, and snapped by an unknown person. With reckless disregard for the consequences to myself, SFL fandom, and the Marlin's organization, I post it here for all.
The Mariners got the end of that painting that was cut off when it wouldn’t fit in Peggy Guggenheim’s foyer.
Pete Abe states what some are thinking. Though he fails to include the prospect I think most likely to be traded, Rafaela
View: https://twitter.com/peteabe/status/1612824479624843264?s=46&t=UomthA453YlchooXt4Hg4A
View: https://twitter.com/peteabe/status/1612824479624843264?s=46&t=UomthA453YlchooXt4Hg4A
Just adding, potential current Marlins rotation:
View: https://twitter.com/craigmish/status/1612793438658863111?s=46&t=UomthA453YlchooXt4Hg4A
View: https://twitter.com/craigmish/status/1612793438658863111?s=46&t=UomthA453YlchooXt4Hg4A
The Marlins signing of Cueto has me feeling that there is some real smoke around a Boston-Miami trade.
I'm not including Casas unless he can be the centerpiece for Alcantara. If I'm Kim Ng, I'm not trading Ancantara under any circumstances, but, yeah: who knows.
One wrinkle is that they have an underwater contract — everybody's favorite — in Avisail Garcia, a right-handed hitting right fielder who has alternated mediocre and excellent seasons through his career before signing a 4/$53m deal in Miami and turning in a truly execrable season. He was so bad that I'd be wary about taking him on, but he fits our roster decently, is only 32, and has been good in the past...
I'm not including Casas unless he can be the centerpiece for Alcantara. If I'm Kim Ng, I'm not trading Ancantara under any circumstances, but, yeah: who knows.
One wrinkle is that they have an underwater contract — everybody's favorite — in Avisail Garcia, a right-handed hitting right fielder who has alternated mediocre and excellent seasons through his career before signing a 4/$53m deal in Miami and turning in a truly execrable season. He was so bad that I'd be wary about taking him on, but he fits our roster decently, is only 32, and has been good in the past...
How do the Sox have room for another starter? And who would we dump from the roster for Garcia? No thanks.
They also signed Segura when they didn’t need him. There’s definitely something lining up, even if it’s not with the Sox.
They haven't even dumped someone for Kluber yet.
ed. note: Every time I type Kluber, autocorrect changes it into Flubber.
Seems like a great opportunity to get rid of Dalbec and Duran along with whatever minor league talent Miami wants.
Current starters: Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Bello, Kluber
Possible starters: Whitlock, Houck
Minors who could get called up: Winckowski, Walter (3.59 era in AA/AAA last year), Seabold, Crawford, Murphy (4.03 era in AA/AAA last year)
That's actually a pretty awesome rotation they might have for Worcester. But if they get a true #1 or #2 SP from the Marlins, they could start Bello in the minors or trade Pivetta or what have you. They can make room.
Possible starters: Whitlock, Houck
Minors who could get called up: Winckowski, Walter (3.59 era in AA/AAA last year), Seabold, Crawford, Murphy (4.03 era in AA/AAA last year)
That's actually a pretty awesome rotation they might have for Worcester. But if they get a true #1 or #2 SP from the Marlins, they could start Bello in the minors or trade Pivetta or what have you. They can make room.
Wouldn't the discussions be framed something like:
Sox: "we want one of your young pitchers and to jettison some of our low paid 40-man floatsam
Marlins: "we want a couple of your prospects and to get rid of Garcia"
EDIT: or what Coachster said much more concisely
I can’t see Casas traded as it goes against Chaim’s message. Bringing in Lopez frees the Sox up to trade a starter for potentially a SS or other need.
Everyone’s favorite tweeter:
Good morning my people!!!
Happy Tuesday!!!
The negotiations #RedSox and #Marlins are not closed, but there are no significant advances because #Miami are insisting on Triston Casas and #Boston at the moment, has not wanted to include him in the package.
We continue, Positive and OK.
View: https://twitter.com/marino_pepen/status/1612844759076442113?s=46&t=aDYDGMWB2rHIoLgUiIHZlA
Good morning my people!!!
Happy Tuesday!!!
The negotiations #RedSox and #Marlins are not closed, but there are no significant advances because #Miami are insisting on Triston Casas and #Boston at the moment, has not wanted to include him in the package.
We continue, Positive and OK.
View: https://twitter.com/marino_pepen/status/1612844759076442113?s=46&t=aDYDGMWB2rHIoLgUiIHZlA
I've been dreaming of Edward Cabrera since these rumors started up. I have no problem sending Rafaella and Matthew Lugo for Cabrera and Miguel Rojas. I would also throw in Dalbec or Duran. It would make sense for them to give Dalbec a look. I would be fascinated to see how far off that deal would be.
Okay, so how about this series of moves:
We do a trade with the Marlins: Rafaela, Duran, Dalbec for Jesus Luzardo (who is younger and riskier than López, but suits our timeline better), Avisaíl García and ~$20m, which brings Garcia down to a 3/$20m or so.
We do a trade with the Padres: Houck for Kim.
This gives us the following 26-man, and only adds ~$15m in AAV, I think:
IF/DH
Kim SS RH
Devers 3B LH
Story 2B RH
Casas 1B LH
Turner DH/1B/3B RH
Arroyo UT RH
OF
Yoshida LH
Hernández RH
Verdugo LH
García RH
Refsnyder RH
C
McGuire LH
Wong RH
SP
Sale LH
Kluber RH
Pivetta RH
Bello RH
Luzardo LH
RP
CL Jansen RH
SU Martin RH
SU Schreiber RH
SU Rodríguez LH
MR Brasier RH
MR Barnes RH
SW Crawford LH
SW Whitlock RH
We do a trade with the Marlins: Rafaela, Duran, Dalbec for Jesus Luzardo (who is younger and riskier than López, but suits our timeline better), Avisaíl García and ~$20m, which brings Garcia down to a 3/$20m or so.
We do a trade with the Padres: Houck for Kim.
This gives us the following 26-man, and only adds ~$15m in AAV, I think:
IF/DH
Kim SS RH
Devers 3B LH
Story 2B RH
Casas 1B LH
Turner DH/1B/3B RH
Arroyo UT RH
OF
Yoshida LH
Hernández RH
Verdugo LH
García RH
Refsnyder RH
C
McGuire LH
Wong RH
SP
Sale LH
Kluber RH
Pivetta RH
Bello RH
Luzardo LH
RP
CL Jansen RH
SU Martin RH
SU Schreiber RH
SU Rodríguez LH
MR Brasier RH
MR Barnes RH
SW Crawford LH
SW Whitlock RH
Yep. This is exactly where I am at and I’m sure the Red Sox would love to make these moves.
Unfortunately , I’m not sure either team goes for that.
I'd probably just rather sign Andrus than do this series of transactions.
Isn't Luzardo basically just a lefty Houck? Luzardo is a year younger than Houck, but he's eligible for free agency in '27 & Houck is '28.
These are their career splits in terms of times through the lineup as starters:
Luzardo
1st - 3.10
2nd - 4.42
3rd - 7.87
Houck
1st - 0.96
2nd - 4.12
3rd - 14.21
Both are 2 times through guys & Houck has been better the 1st 2 times through.
Their reverse xFIPs are kind of interesting:
Luzardo
Left - 3.05
Right - 4.15
Houck
Left - 4.06
Right - 3.04
& like 60% of at bats are by righties.
Anyway, as I think that's a wash to a slight value loss, we're left with Rafaela, Duran & Dalbec for Kim (& Garcia who is basically a wash to slight loss on that reduced contract). I'm cool shipping out Duran & Dalbec, but I don't think I do Rafaela for Kim straight up.
Kim is a big regression candidate based on his hitting profile:
Avg exit velocity - 10
Hard hit % - 12
Barrel % - 14
Outs Above Average - 95
He had a 70 wRC+ in '21 & 105 in '22. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle of those. So if he's a below average hitter, all your left with is a glove first guy on a 2/$14m contract, which is nice value, but it seems that's also Rafaela's floor, and he's under control for a lot more years.
Isn't Luzardo basically just a lefty Houck? Luzardo is a year younger than Houck, but he's eligible for free agency in '27 & Houck is '28.
These are their career splits in terms of times through the lineup as starters:
Luzardo
1st - 3.10
2nd - 4.42
3rd - 7.87
Houck
1st - 0.96
2nd - 4.12
3rd - 14.21
Both are 2 times through guys & Houck has been better the 1st 2 times through.
Their reverse xFIPs are kind of interesting:
Luzardo
Left - 3.05
Right - 4.15
Houck
Left - 4.06
Right - 3.04
& like 60% of at bats are by righties.
Anyway, as I think that's a wash to a slight value loss, we're left with Rafaela, Duran & Dalbec for Kim (& Garcia who is basically a wash to slight loss on that reduced contract). I'm cool shipping out Duran & Dalbec, but I don't think I do Rafaela for Kim straight up.
Kim is a big regression candidate based on his hitting profile:
Avg exit velocity - 10
Hard hit % - 12
Barrel % - 14
Outs Above Average - 95
He had a 70 wRC+ in '21 & 105 in '22. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle of those. So if he's a below average hitter, all your left with is a glove first guy on a 2/$14m contract, which is nice value, but it seems that's also Rafaela's floor, and he's under control for a lot more years.
Again... I'm more than bullish on the rotation and bullpen at this point.
The only thing I think the team really needs is a SS/2B. I'd love to figure out a way to get Adames without giving up any of Mayer/Bello/Casas/Rafaela/Bleis.
Expendable prospects (and 25 man-players) to me: Yorke, Romero, Mata, Murphy Lugo, Dalbec, Duran, Houck or Pivetta.
I just don't see how dealing any of those top 5 guys fits in to what I'm seeing from Chaim's plan.
The only thing I think the team really needs is a SS/2B. I'd love to figure out a way to get Adames without giving up any of Mayer/Bello/Casas/Rafaela/Bleis.
Expendable prospects (and 25 man-players) to me: Yorke, Romero, Mata, Murphy Lugo, Dalbec, Duran, Houck or Pivetta.
I just don't see how dealing any of those top 5 guys fits in to what I'm seeing from Chaim's plan.
For completeness on Luzardo, he was better this year than his career #s:
1st time through - 1.98
2nd time through - 3.12
3rd time through - 6.63
& he certainly has some more upside, but he seems destined to remain a twice through the order guy.
His pitch mix last year was quite balanced:
Curveball - 30.1%
4-Seam - 27.2%
Changeup - 22.6%
Sinker - 20.6%
Which is cool & all, but throwing that many off speed pitches isn't really a 3 times through the order mix. Especially since his improvement this past year came with the increase of curveballs & the decrease of fastballs.
1st time through - 1.98
2nd time through - 3.12
3rd time through - 6.63
& he certainly has some more upside, but he seems destined to remain a twice through the order guy.
His pitch mix last year was quite balanced:
Curveball - 30.1%
4-Seam - 27.2%
Changeup - 22.6%
Sinker - 20.6%
Which is cool & all, but throwing that many off speed pitches isn't really a 3 times through the order mix. Especially since his improvement this past year came with the increase of curveballs & the decrease of fastballs.
I would guess that if something happens here, they shop Pivetta to ease the logjam. Quality over quantity. They don't seem very committed to him if the occasional rumors are to be believed.
View: https://twitter.com/lionintexas10/status/1612860610425008128?s=46&t=ksNpbDpfc0IMUfErAitkyw
To further my point. It takes two to tango and to this point, major league level assets are sky high.
Any one of Casas, Bello, or Mayer would be an enormous overpay of monumental proportions for Lopez.
To further my point. It takes two to tango and to this point, major league level assets are sky high.
Any one of Casas, Bello, or Mayer would be an enormous overpay of monumental proportions for Lopez.
If those names are involved then it would have to be Alcantara coming back and I just don’t think Miami does that.
I doubt it but that’s something I would consider if I were the Marlins given their pitching depth. They have a real need for legit cost controlled hitting prospects and Casas/Mayer would really help in that regard.
I would be livid if Casas went in a trade. He was one of the only reasons (along with Bello) to watch anything last summer.
Lopez is the better pitcher, but is he really that much better for the 2023 and 2024 Red Sox? Both pitchers are free agents in 2025. Here are their 2022 numbers:
Lopez
IP: 180
ERA: 3.75
ERA+: 108
FIP: 3.71
WHIP: 1.167
K/9: 8.7
BB/9: 2.7
HR/9: 1.1
H/9: 7.9
WAR: 3.0
Pivetta
IP: 179.2
ERA: 4.56
ERA+: 92
FIP: 4.42
WHIP: 1.380
K/9: 8.8
BB/9: 3.7
HR/9: 1.4
H/9: 8.8
WAR: 2.6
So the numbers, while obviously in Lopez's favor, aren't as far apart as one might initially think. They're both going to give you around 180 IP. Lopez gives up about a walk and a hit fewer per 9 IP, but Pivetta actually has a slightly better K rate. Pivetta is estimated to receive $5.8 million this year. Lopez is estimated to get $6.3 million. Coupled with the fact that we'd likely need to subtract from our cost-controlled SP depth to get Lopez, I'd much rather save the cash, retain our depth, keep Pivetta as a solid 4th/5th SP, and hope that Bello can build on his success.
They are not trading what seems like above average players with 6 years of control.
They are part of the window with Devers. Not pieces to trade for 2 years of a good not great pitcher.
I wouldn't worry. The sourcing of all this trade talk is tenuous at best. And trading Casas, especially now, would be antithetical to everything we've seen Chaim Bloom do over the last three years. It's not going to happen.
Casas in anything but a Soto or Alcantara type deal would never happen.
I think Lopez is overblown. Everything Bloom has done points to the window opening in 2025. Why trade valuable pieces for a #2 starter with major shoulder concerns and only two years of control?
If they want to send us García and López for like, Verdugo, then great. Otherwise I think this deal will involve someone like Rogers, Luzardo or Cabrera.
I think Lopez is overblown. Everything Bloom has done points to the window opening in 2025. Why trade valuable pieces for a #2 starter with major shoulder concerns and only two years of control?
If they want to send us García and López for like, Verdugo, then great. Otherwise I think this deal will involve someone like Rogers, Luzardo or Cabrera.
Agree on all three points. I think the only move the Sox have to do is SS, which can be as simple as Andrus. Any other deal will be getting better now without giving up any pieces for the future that they really care about.
Also, those are Lopez's numbers while not pitching in the AL East.
I'm with (I think) most people here in not getting more decent/good pitching at the costs being floated. Just find a SS somewhere already.
Yep, at this point I'm on the Andrus train.
2022: 17 hr (which he won't repeat), 103 ops+, 3.1 bWAR
Even if he hits 8 homers, has a 90 ops+, and a 1.0 bWAR, that's probably fine for now. I don't want the Sox to deal Casas or Bello or Mayer. No way. If they're getting Alcantara back, that's a different conversation.
2022: 17 hr (which he won't repeat), 103 ops+, 3.1 bWAR
Even if he hits 8 homers, has a 90 ops+, and a 1.0 bWAR, that's probably fine for now. I don't want the Sox to deal Casas or Bello or Mayer. No way. If they're getting Alcantara back, that's a different conversation.
Someone in the lineup needs to hit homers. If Casas is gone, that leaves Devers, Story, and maybe Turner as someone you could reasonably expect to hit even 20. The 2023 Red Sox can't be giving up power in the major league lineup for pitching staff upgrades.
Yeah, I was going to add a section about Lopez's numbers vs. the NL East but I figured it was overkill since most of us are on the same page. I just don't get the notion that Pivetta is expendable right now - with as many question marks as we have in the rotation, we need at least one dependable workhorse. If Bello/Houck/Whitlock can stick in the rotation, then that's a different story. And replacing Pivetta (and Bello or Casas) with Lopez isn't the best use of resources.
And I know it’s not gonna happen but could you image a bullpen of Schreiber, Houck, Whitlock, Martin, Jansen? Then you wouldn’t have to trade Pivetta. Wouldn’t imagine we would blow many leads past the 5th inning like we have become so accustomed to over the years.
?? Right now, this is the bullpen, plus a couple other guys.
Rotation right now: Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Bello, Kluber. Unless they start Bello out in AAA, and then they'd need another starter. But yeah, what you imagine as the Sox' bullpen IS the bullpen right now, plus some combination of Barnes, Brasier, Taylor, and Rodriguez.
Has that been announced? I think ultimately they'd like for him to be there, but I'm not sure it's a "done deal". Of course, with the health concerns surrounding Sale and Paxton, there's a good chance they'd need another starter (or two) at some point anyway.