From the Jennings article in The Athletic mentioned above, here's a "rumor"-- basically his guess at what happens with Bogaerts, based on an "understanding" of what the organization wants:
Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding
- Thread starter jcormjmac
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Yeah, yours was one of the bigger offers to X, so if we count that it'd bring the total of 6+/30+ offers to 3. I didn't count any incentives/options/buyouts/etc. in my analysis though because one can't really quantify the value. But I agree that it puts you in the ballpark of 6+/30+.
Not a rumor, but wasn't sure if I am supposed to start a thread for something like this. Do we need a thread for actual Red Sox offseason moves?
View: https://twitter.com/BostonStrong_34/status/1595559393428488192?s=20&t=M3FkIfY5FIx01Eb57rT4Cw
View: https://twitter.com/BostonStrong_34/status/1595559393428488192?s=20&t=M3FkIfY5FIx01Eb57rT4Cw
I don't think the Sox bullpen was as bad as a lot of fans out there. In fact, it was very good during the Sox run. I'm just pointing out that it's hard for a bullpen to handle all those innings - whether it's the Sox, or someone else.
I would also argue that part of the reason starters aren't lasting as long is that teams are too focused on strikeouts. When starters are going for K's, they throw harder and get tired sooner. I'd like to see more pitching to contact, and with it, a corresponding increase in innings pitched. Is that a possibility? I have no idea.
I’m always torn in big bullpen names- but I live Jensen and he’s been consistently elite.
I also don’t see the Sox adding him, signing Xander, extending Devers and adding an OF’er via trade all this off-season but it’s be cool.
I'm curious what Jansen will actually get on the open market. He signed the one year deal with Atlanta ($16 million) when the Dodgers balked at giving him a three year contract. I can't imagine he's looking to sign another one year deal, but does 2 years at $30 get it done? And if it does, is a 35 year old closer really where the Sox should be allocating money?
Paps and Foulke spring to mind as closers that threw high leverage innings and flamed out at this point in their careers. Kimbrel is 34 and I'd have zero interest in him if he was available.
Not sure how much I buy it, but Heyman has the Padres in on Xander as well as the Phillies. He also closes with this:
Marino Pepen says Bogaerts is “the most desirable SS on the market”. Mentions Red Sox, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, and Twins having interest.
View: https://twitter.com/marino_pepen/status/1596876288413036544?s=46&t=uHgN7x_YQWlm2QvO7EDSjg
View: https://twitter.com/marino_pepen/status/1596876288413036544?s=46&t=uHgN7x_YQWlm2QvO7EDSjg
The Padres' payroll is already at 230 mil, and after next year they have replace (or re-sign) Snell, Darvish, and Hader. I don't see them spending big on another position player.
And the Twins aren't getting him either.
Silly season.
And the Twins aren't getting him either.
Silly season.
They've been talking about moving him to the outfield for a couple years now. Even experimented with it in 2021 after his second IL trip of the season for a shoulder injury.
But like moondog says, the Padres already have a bloated payroll and it doesn't make a ton of sense for them to pay another market rate deal on a shortstop. I suspect the Pads have now become one of the teams that every agent for every player seeking a huge deal is going to say is interested whether they really are or not. They have a big payroll so maybe someone believes they're really a threat and the agent can squeeze a few extra million or an extra year out of the real target.
To be fair, they only got Correa because the long range deals dried up and he decided to go for the short-term deal so he could re-enter the market again this winter. Seems unlikely a similar fate will befall Bogaerts.
Padres have a high payroll but a lot of guys off the books after this year (Darvish, Snell, Pomeranz, probably Machado). Of course they will want to re-up Soto but I think they could fit Bogaerts in.
I love Xander, but acquiring him while costing yourself a shot at retaining Machado seems like a really bad idea.
Yeah, that tweet read more like cheerleading than anything else. I'm sure all four shortstops are getting interest from multiple teams. Xander might be desirable because teams presume his contract will be less expensive.
Living in San Diego, if the sports radio guys are to be believed, a move for one of the SS's isn't out of the question. These guys are all in and they're the only game in town. Preller loves to make the big move and this one would only cost them money. I wouldn't write them off so quickly just because they have a high payroll.
I think this is it. There might be an assumption that Bogaerts won't get as much money as Turner or Correa and the offer from Boston won't be too high.
But who knows what is really going on.
Plus, Seidler doesn't have any qualms about spending money. If Preller thinks Xander is a good move, I don't think there's anything stopping them from going after him.
"I kind of like spending money. You can't take it with you."
They only have $187 million on the books for 2023, and unless they hand Soto an extension or sign an elite SP, they've got room.
Eh, I'll believe it when I see it. I'd think pitching would be the priority given the pending FA of Snell and Darvish, and then there's a Soto extension. And that's assuming they spend at all. Everyone has a limit.
Cot's estimates them at $229M currently. Spotrac has them at $207M. Both of those figures are guesses based on what they think the arb-eligibles will get.
I think the heart of it isn't that the Padres are going to hesitate to spend money, it's that they're going to spend that money on a position where they already have a young and expensive player (albeit one who will start the year on the suspended list). They'd be better served spending on a different position.
The Padres make very little sense in the shortstop market. They already have a gold glove caliber SS who was worth nearly 4 wins last year in Kim, who is on a peach of a contract, along with Tatis. Their biggest upgrade opportunities are at DH and OF (Grisham).
If that’s the case it would probably indicate that most teams realize that SS is a young player’s position and are looking at the downside of locking up that spot long term. I could see the Sox waiting out the market and just picking up the guy without a chair when the music stops just before the season starts (ala Story v2.0). of course this could just leave us playing Park…
You may well be right. Of course depending on the market/need this can work out in the player's favor if there are still multiple chairs available.
If it truly is a last man standing without a chair situation, the more likely it would be for him to return to Atlanta, I would think.
I’m nervous about paying anybody coming off a career year. I have doubts whether or not he can even be a 3 WAR/year player going forward, let alone duplicating his 5.7 year last season. I wouldn’t be very comfortable going over $15m/year and at that rate, surely ATL would be a little more likely to bring him back.
Also:
View attachment 602D9BAD-72A4-42EB-8193-C834B368166A.webp
The other issue with X is the Boras factor; is he planning to just wait out the market, and how does that work with Correa? If X is the hot name because he's perceived as the "value" signing, then does it make more sense to get him off the board so Boras can leverage the scarcity to drive Correa's deal higher? The worrying development would be the reverse, and Correa working out a long term deal and then X's price going higher.
Swanson looks like a career year mirage; I think he only makes sense as a stop-gap, and one with a lower price than estimated at that...
Swanson looks like a career year mirage; I think he only makes sense as a stop-gap, and one with a lower price than estimated at that...
Swanson is also a Georgia local who was ecstatic when he got traded to the Braves organization. If the money on offer is close, I see him taking less to stay put if Atlanta still wants him.
While it doesn't make a ton of sense with their current roster, their thinking would be X at SS, Kim at 2B, Cronenworth at 1B and Tatis in the OF (to help keep him healthy). They're also rumored to be in on Jose Abreu at 1B, so that could throw a wrench in that idea, but I think they're taking a very broad approach to filling out the roster and could sign a SS if the money is right or they could pivot and go to someone like Abreu. There's a lot of flexibility in how they can approach things with Tatis able to play OF and Cronenworth able to play 1B. Spit balling here, but they could also look to trade one of Kim or Cro for pitching and still add a SS like X. If they did sign a top SS, I think it would be a little easier to convince Tatis to move to the OF, something he'd probably be less willing to do if the other option at SS is Kim.
Not singling you out, because its a common theme...but I think blithely assuming that just "moving an infielder to the OF" will be successful (or not a full-blown disaster) is a mistake.
Of course it's a risk, but the Padres themselves felt he could handle it in '21 so I don't think I'm blindly assuming anything here. It's not like I'm saying the Red Sox should put Casas in RF. Tatis has already seen action in an MLB OF and his numbers in RF were just fine.
Plus, Tatís is out for the first month of the season, right? He's always had issues staying on the field, so I can totally see San Diego easing him back in via RF, and they've also got Machado potentially opting out of his contract after this season. Maybe Preller thinks Xander can cover SS this season to take some pressure off Tatís, then split time between SS and 3B going forward if Machado is gone.
Assuming no rainouts, he's eligible to return on April 20th which would be the Padres' 21st game of the year.
Fernando Tatis Jr. return date from suspension in 2023 (mlb.com)
Not exactly a comforting feeling that they didn’t want to extend for their priority outside FA target.
Well, they probably had to beat Houston's offer and not just match it, right?
I take
I have a hard time buying that Abreu was a top priority for the Sox, unless he was that because they saw him as a potential bargain. At 3/$60M, he's not a bargain.
Yeah, I can believe they had interest. I don't know who on the Sox' side would let it leak out that he was their top target. Unless maybe they told Abreu's people that in a salesman kind of way when they met with him and that got back to Heyman?