Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding

chawson

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Even if you convert him to the bullpen, it seems like Eflin's reasonable upside is reliever-Whitlock or maybe Houck, which is the kind of MIRP arm the team seems to be embracing and could really help. It’s a small sample, but his numbers as a reliever were incredible.

As a starter, Eflin was a shade better over the last three years than Joe Musgrove has been in about 60 percent of the innings pitched, and Musgrove just got 5/$100M. Or you might see him as Collin McHugh, a great SP/RP who signed for only 2/$10, in which case he's overpaid. With our resources, he's not a guy I’d worry about paying $13.5M a year for a few. That's basically an arb3 salary for a #3 starter and about what we're on the hook to pay Pivetta in 2024.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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The Red Sox very nearly added to their pitching staff on Thursday.

Zach Eflin, the longtime Phillies starter who ended the season as a key piece of their playoff bullpen, agreed to a three-year, $40-million deal with the Rays. It was the largest free agent contract in Tampa Bay franchise history, and it almost went to the Red Sox.
My understanding is that what transpired is that the Red Sox were the highest bidders, but Eflin is from Florida, and so the Rays were given an opportunity to match. If the Florida club put the same offer on the table, Eflin would sign.

They did, and he did.

The Red Sox were not given an opportunity to raise their bid. They also didn’t know until it the deal was done that the Rays were going to have the final opportunity to match.

And so, another player came off the board.
https://theathletic.com/3959801/2022/12/01/red-sox-zach-eflin-rays/
Not to get all V&N, and I voted for it, but losing him to a Florida team does make you wonder whether the millionaire's tax might be having an impact on our ability to sign free agents.
 

Manramsclan

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Not to get all V&N, and I voted for it, but losing him to a Florida team does make you wonder whether the millionaire's tax might be having an impact on our ability to sign free agents.
I don't think it is a non-issue, but I would guess that it is one of a combination of things in this case.
Also, the difference is hardly insurmountable. All it would take is a marginal raise on the offer. While it would be difficult to make that raise on the face of it so that a team isn't out bidding itself, it would seem if that was really the case the agent would say "We'd really like to sign with Boston, but the tax is going to be a problem," then see if the team ups it's offer to make up some of the difference.

The California teams seem to be drawing quite a bit of talent and they have just as onerous state taxes as Massachusetts does.
 

moondog80

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I'd think to the degree that agents and the MLBPA control things, they care about the biggest deal possible, absent any impact of local tax rates.

In this specific case, it sounds like the lure for Eflin was being close to home and not lower taxes.
 

adcasaletto

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Only a couple million more than JBJ got to play a good right field, but be an absolute hole in the lineup. I'll take Mitch over that disaster.
 

Obscure Name

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Not to get all V&N, and I voted for it, but losing him to a Florida team does make you wonder whether the millionaire's tax might be having an impact on our ability to sign free agents.
He didn't give Boston a chance to raise their offer after Tampa matched so in this case it doesn't sound like it made a difference.
 

NYCSox

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Not to get all V&N, and I voted for it, but losing him to a Florida team does make you wonder whether the millionaire's tax might be having an impact on our ability to sign free agents.
It's absolutely going to have an impact on the margins by raising the cost to sign at least some players. When you're operating with a de facto cap that will create some limitations unless you're the Dodgers and don't give a shit about any caps.
 

chrisfont9

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I'd think to the degree that agents and the MLBPA control things, they care about the biggest deal possible, absent any impact of local tax rates.

In this specific case, it sounds like the lure for Eflin was being close to home and not lower taxes.
That makes sense. There's always an element of pride in the "largest deal" or at least getting as much as you can in order to aid the rising tide for all players. None of that is tied to actual take-home pay. I'd imagine you can throw in a few perks for spouses and whatnot to offset any concerns about taxes (not a literal offset in dollars but enough for a player to not care).
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Sox just cleared a 40-man spot by outrighting Ronaldo Hernandez. *eyes emoji*
I wonder if this might mean Bloom has his eye on a Rule 5 target? Teams can't draft players in Rule 5 if their 40-man roster is full. If it were a matter of signing a free agent or making a trade, this move could have been made when the deal was closed rather than in advance of it.
 

E5 Yaz

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I wonder if this might mean Bloom has his eye on a Rule 5 target? Teams can't draft players in Rule 5 if their 40-man roster is full. If it were a matter of signing a free agent or making a trade, this move could have been made when the deal was closed rather than in advance of it.
Particularly a trade, which can conceivably involve moving more players off the 40-man than you get back.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Keeping Hernandez on the 40 man as a 4th catcher all year despite a desperate need for an OF/1B option many times during thee year… and then to drop him now…not sure I get it. But something must be imminent!
 

mr_smith02

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If that's true, kudos to Xander. It's all you can ask from a player.
Kudos maybe, but also maybe a savvy move that would make the front office look like the bad guys if he ends up going somewhere else, even if his asking price is too much. The average fan won't really look at the long-term financial impacts and instead see it as Mookie Part 2.
 

johnnywayback

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Keeping Hernandez on the 40 man as a 4th catcher all year despite a desperate need for an OF/1B option many times during thee year… and then to drop him now…not sure I get it. But something must be imminent!
I think it's because now is an easier time to sneak him through waivers, with teams bringing on free agents and cramming for the Rule 5 draft. If they'd done this in mid-season, it would have been easier for someone to grab him.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Re: Boagerts, it sounds nice, but do the Red Sox really want to be the high bidder here? I’m assuming they want him at a certain number but I’m skeptical that number is higher than any other team will go.
 

chrisfont9

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Kudos maybe, but also maybe a savvy move that would make the front office look like the bad guys if he ends up going somewhere else, even if his asking price is too much. The average fan won't really look at the long-term financial impacts and instead see it as Mookie Part 2.
That sounds like a future Shaughnessy column, but sure, if you want to read that sort of intrigue into it. I just think a little Occam's razor works better.
 

mr_smith02

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Re: Boagerts, it sounds nice, but do the Red Sox really want to be the high bidder here? I’m assuming they want him at a certain number but I’m skeptical that number is higher than any other team will go.
My feeling is that the FO wants to have Boagerts back, but it certainly is not going to overpay, especially because they can use the saved money to lock down Devers long-term, which will pacify a good portion of the fan base as long as they also make other moves that allow this team to be competitive in 2023. And, I think if they do resign Boagerts they will kick the Devers' can down the road because he's still under contract this off-season. IMO, the front office is not planning to sign both Boagerts and Devers this off-season.
 

chrisfont9

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Re: Boagerts, it sounds nice, but do the Red Sox really want to be the high bidder here? I’m assuming they want him at a certain number but I’m skeptical that number is higher than any other team will go.
TBD but you have a lot of money coming off the books and you have intangible value unique to the team, like this would help them sign Devers. If the Padres want to just go crazy, then he's theirs, but if they pay anything like a market price, I would expect the Sox to match. The years could get tricky, is my biggest worry.
 

mr_smith02

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That sounds like a future Shaughnessy column, but sure, if you want to read that sort of intrigue into it. I just think a little Occam's razor works better.
Peruse Twitter, listen to WEEI, scour a few threads here...some fans are going to conflate Mookie and Bogaerts if he leaves, especially if they hear he let the FO try to match whatever offer he ultimately gets.
 

chrisfont9

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Peruse Twitter, listen to WEEI, scour a few threads here...some fans are going to conflate Mookie and Bogaerts if he leaves, especially if they hear he let the FO try to match whatever offer he ultimately gets.
Hard pass! I take your point, that is how some people will see it (hence my CHB mention). I'm more interested in the actual situation but it's so hard to know which spin story to trust when a guy leaves. Hopefully we won't have to worry about that.
 

mr_smith02

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Hard pass! I take your point, that is how some people will see it (hence my CHB mention). I'm more interested in the actual situation but it's so hard to know which spin story to trust when a guy leaves. Hopefully we won't have to worry about that.
LOL, fair enough...I thought you were saying I was being like CHB.
 

dhappy42

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Peruse Twitter, listen to WEEI, scour a few threads here...some fans are going to conflate Mookie and Bogaerts if he leaves, especially if they hear he let the FO try to match whatever offer he ultimately gets.
They traded Betts. There was never any offer to match.

Bogaerts, as a free agent, is a different situation.
 

BringBackMo

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Re: Boagerts, it sounds nice, but do the Red Sox really want to be the high bidder here? I’m assuming they want him at a certain number but I’m skeptical that number is higher than any other team will go.
Not sure I follow your point here. Gammons "reported" recently that Bogaerts had broken off communication with the club and would not be returning. This notion was upsetting to a large percentage of the fan base. If this new tweet is to be believed, however, Bogaerts appears to be communicating that he will give the Red Sox an opportunity to top any offer he receives. We saw just yesterday how this opportunity can benefit one club over another. You're right that the Sox will have to decide whether they actually want to pay X what another club has offered, but that pretty much goes without saying. Not having outright hostility directed at the club from one its most popular stars in recent history comes as a relief to many Red Sox fans. It's nice whether or not it leads to him resigning with the team.
 

mr_smith02

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Sports fans are irrational. Thats not shocking. They will always find something to complain about
Absolutely true.

I am simply saying that Boagerts' camp publically saying he will allow the front office to match any offer allows him to create the same, "Hey, I wanted to stay but they really didn't want me." narrative that Betts' camp spun.
 

snowmanny

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Re: Boagerts, it sounds nice, but do the Red Sox really want to be the high bidder here? I’m assuming they want him at a certain number but I’m skeptical that number is higher than any other team will go.
Going shopping in free agency without planning to be the high bidder sounds like a flawed strategy. Even if it is your former player.
 

brandonchristensen

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I think the reaction to these players leaving is that there's a feeling that this team is more concerned with the bottom line than fielding a team that can grow together year to year. The turnover on the team is immense, and it makes it hard to care about a lot of the players when they're in and out while the guys you got to watch develop into stars are left hanging on extensions and ultimately leave.

Personally, I wish they would sign Devers long term - and I wish 1-2 years ago they found a way to make Xander happy for an extra couple years on top of his current salary so he didn't opt out. They're the cornerstones of the team right now, and we have no idea if they'll be there in a year or two. Just feels like we are a LONG ways away from 2018.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Going shopping in free agency without planning to be the high bidder sounds like a flawed strategy. Even if it is your former player.
Yeah. Phrasing it as not wanting to be the high bidder is probably not the way to say what I think Petegine is saying. They absolutely want to be the highest bidder for Bogaerts. They're just hoping that the highest bid comes in at or below their upper limit or they might have to say no.

The Sox value Bogaerts at X. Bogaerts values himself at Y. They want him to go out and prove his market rate is Y before they agree to pay it.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Well, I think the Red Sox pitch to Bogaerts is likely not just about offering him more money than anyone else. It’s about his legacy, playing his entire career for the Sox, winning multiple championships, etc. If he’s dead set on getting the most possible money, it is likely not to be with Boston- that’s just how these things work and it’s not really anyone’s fault. And yeah, I suspect the Sox valuation of Boagerts is not likely to be swayed by San Diego or Philadelphia’s.
 

radsoxfan

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Re: Boagerts, it sounds nice, but do the Red Sox really want to be the high bidder here? I’m assuming they want him at a certain number but I’m skeptical that number is higher than any other team will go.
I’m sure they’re happy to be the high bidder if the contract is semi-reasonable. So it’s nice to have final say if they want to match.

At the same time, I agree with the overall premise that the high bidder here is likely to be higher than the Red Sox are comfortable with.
 

snowmanny

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This ownership group has proven that they are willing to be the high bidder on some free agents. They aren’t cheap. But sometimes (and sometimes to their benefit) they seem to struggle getting there with their own players.
 

dhappy42

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This ownership group has proven that they are willing to be the high bidder on some free agents. They aren’t cheap. But sometimes (and sometimes to their benefit) they seem to struggle getting there with their own players.
In fact, they've been the high bidder on every free agent they've signed.
 

soxhop411

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per the athletic
Whether the Padres can outbid other teams with clearer needs at shortstop remains to be seen. San Diego, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported Tuesday, also has expressed interest in another top free agent, Xander Bogaerts. Bogaerts is expected to land a deal approaching or exceeding $200 million. But Turner, a candidate for possibly $300 million, appears to be the Padres’ preference.
If thats what Xander gets i would just go after Correa
View: https://twitter.com/dennistlin/status/1598873012266098689
 

brandonchristensen

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Man, $20M used to be so big. Now we are almost doubling it for a lot of players. Has payroll increased at the same rate?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Man, $20M used to be so big. Now we are almost doubling it for a lot of players. Has payroll increased at the same rate?
I’m guessing one or two each FA class will get stupid money, while the next tier will still get stupid paid but $8-$10M per each year less. Turner will get $38/M…. X and Correa will get $30M and $28M respectively
 

brandonchristensen

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I’m guessing one or two each FA class will get stupid money, while the next tier will still get stupid paid but $8-$10M per each year less. Turner will get $38/M…. X and Correa will get $30M and $28M respectively
I really struggle to see deGrom being a good signing. 37 for 5 years is nuts for a guy of his age and injury. I know he’s otherworldly but I would have preferred a Bauer type deal. Less time more money.