Also if WAS traded him to a contender this deadline, it’s two full years plus one stretch run. Mookie was traded in the offseason before his FA year, so one full season exactly. WAS can get a huge prospect package if they move him this deadline.
Why? Not saying I think this is right or wrong (I don't know honestly), just curious what you mean.Soto is also the kind of guy who should age better than Betts.
This is a very clever way to quantify the question, but more interesting to me than the ratio this year, is the multi year trend. Using that same data for league average, listed as year: appearances >3 out, appearances <3 outNumbers say nope.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2022-reliever-pitching.shtml
AL Pitcher appearances in which the pitcher pitched more than one inning.
123 BAL
100 MIN
96 TBR
93 LAA
90 OAK
87 BOS
87 TEX
86 KCR
84 NYY
83 TOR
League Average 83
78 CWS
69 DET
63 CLE
51 HOU
48 SEA
Compared to AL pitcher appearances where the pitcher recorded less than three outs (and therefore went less than one inning.
103 OAK
97 KCR
96 BOS
85 TOR
79 BAL
71 TBR
League Average 71
76 LAA
64 CWS
63 TEX
61 SEA
60 NYY
59 CLE
53 DET
53 HOU
51 MIN
As they should, an JA makes a good point about using him for 3 stretch runs, which is why the Nats are likely making this public and he's certain to be traded.According to fangraphs last season he had the 5th highest trade value in baseball. That will obviously go down because it's been another season, but he will no doubt still be in the top 20.
Mookie Betts who was 3 years older when he was traded wasn't even in the top 50 after being #6 the season before and he was probably a better player. A year extra of control makes a huge difference for a premium player.
It may not be a Herschel Walker haul, but they will get a hell of a lot more than what the Sox got.
Willis was the Mike Lowell of that trade, a sunk cost that the frugal Marlins wanted a bigger market to absorb as the cost of doing business. He had upside down value at that point, though there might have still been some hope that a new environment and a different pitching coach could clear his head and straighten out his mechanics.I'm trying to remember what the assessment was of D-train’s inclusion in the deal: he was a ROY winner in 2003, was fantastic in ‘05, then returned to being good (in line with his previous seasons) in ‘06 and had a pretty disappointing ’07 before being traded. How much of that prospect haul can be attributed to him?
His mechanics were always a mess though as he had one of the most violent windup in baseball, but I think it was a necessary evil as it appeared that every muscle in his body was required for the slingshot effect.. That he had the career that he had without a major injury was borderline miraculous. I half expected that the last pitch of his major league career was going to result in his hand still on the ball as it floated past the batter.Willis was the Mike Lowell of that trade, a sunk cost that the frugal Marlins wanted a bigger market to absorb as the cost of doing business. He had upside down value at that point, though there might have still been some hope that a new environment and a different pitching coach could clear his head and straighten out his mechanics.
To the point, you'd have to factor out the mop-up duty appearances for this to make sense, which is why it's so time consuming. The multi-inning work by Austin Pruitt in Oakland or Kolby Allard in Texas is qualitatively different from Michael King or Garrett Whitlock, who are typically deployed more strategically in close games.Numbers say nope.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2022-reliever-pitching.shtml
AL Pitcher appearances in which the pitcher pitched more than one inning.
123 BAL
100 MIN
96 TBR
93 LAA
90 OAK
87 BOS
87 TEX
86 KCR
84 NYY
83 TOR
League Average 83
78 CWS
69 DET
63 CLE
51 HOU
48 SEA
Compared to AL pitcher appearances where the pitcher recorded less than three outs (and therefore went less than one inning.
103 OAK
97 KCR
96 BOS
85 TOR
79 BAL
71 TBR
League Average 71
76 LAA
64 CWS
63 TEX
61 SEA
60 NYY
59 CLE
53 DET
53 HOU
51 MIN
I didn’t intend to mean that he had, only that his salary relief incentivized the Marlins to move Cabrera much like Lowell’s contract was bundled into the Beckett acquisition.That said, just looking back at the last year in Florida and years after the trade, he had mostly with flashes of his former brilliance showing up just enough to give hope that he could have turned it around. so while he may have been the Mike Lowell of the deal, he never came close to being the contributor that Lowell (2007 WS MVP) was with the Sox.
Only if he can pitch the 7th and 8th inning.Is Soto enough to make this team a serious World Series contender this year?
538 has the Red Sox at 2% chance to win the WS. I’d put it at more like 3% but whatever. With Soto I’d put it at maybe 4-5% but I’m guessing 538 would be more conservative.Is Soto enough to make this team a serious World Series contender this year?
Understood. I was just happy it gave me the chance to look up the end of Willis's career since his delivery was so unique and that he fell off the radar as he had. Plus Mike Lowell as another favorite of mine so I got to riff on two of my favorites in one post.I didn’t intend to mean that he had, only that his salary relief incentivized the Marlins to move Cabrera much like Lowell’s contract was bundled into the Beckett acquisition.
Yes, that's right ...the great "turnover" will likely happen this coming off season, and we will finally see Bloom's full intentions. As I know I've mentioned, IMO, Bloom has taken a hedged middle path, making just enough affordable acquisitions to be competitive, but neither really GFIN nor rebuilding (frustrating as fan). Well, rebuild it will be after 2022, and we'll see how he does it. Might the Sox organization be willing for a slow build to the next core, with a couple of losing seasons along the way, as we wait for Casas, Ceddanne, Mayer, Bello to come into their own? Or will the mandate be to be more aggressive? After a wide range of Rorschach test interpretations of Bloom's intentions so far, things will finally become clear.The Sox are down to 4 players with 100+ PA and an OPS+ over 100. Three of the four (Bogaerts, JD, Vazquez) are FA’s to be.
Of the four starters to have a 100 or greater ERA+, three (Wacha, Hill, Eovaldi) have expiring contracts- the fourth (Whitlock) is now in the bullpen.
A lot of Betts value is (or was) tied up in his defense, which can decline pretty quickly once he loses a step. It's already dropped off a lot in the last 2 years.Why? Not saying I think this is right or wrong (I don't know honestly), just curious what you mean.
There will be no reason to do a rebuild, at least how the term is traditionally used (focus on the farm at the expense of the big league club). Bloom has done a fantastic job of turning a bottom 10 system in to a top 10 (maybe top 5) while using savvy low cost acquisitions to keep the team competitive and not bloat the payroll with bad long term contracts.Yes, that's right ...the great "turnover" will likely happen this coming off season, and we will finally see Bloom's full intentions. As I know I've mentioned, IMO, Bloom has taken a hedged middle path, making just enough affordable acquisitions to be competitive, but neither really GFIN nor rebuilding (frustrating as fan). Well, rebuild it will be after 2022, and we'll see how he does it. Might the Sox organization be willing for a slow build to the next core, with a couple of losing seasons along the way, as we wait for Casas, Ceddanne, Mayer, Bello to come into their own? Or will the mandate be to be more aggressive? After a wide range of Rorschach test interpretations of Bloom's intentions so far, things will finally become clear.
Yessir, Mike Trout and the Angels were exactly who I was thinking of.Ideally that kind of insight should keep teams from making these deals, and make good players a little more affordable across the board. But it always seems like there’s a team willing to do it. It doesn’t make sense to be the Angels, if you sacrifice your future just to have Mike Trout.
I was reading a little about them recently. Even some of their fans want Trout gone because they know they can’t compete the way they’re built.Yessir, Mike Trout and the Angels were exactly who I was thinking of.
Rendon and Trout both make about $37 million. Syndegard makes $21 million. It’s not just Trout.Yessir, Mike Trout and the Angels were exactly who I was thinking of.
They figured out that they were playing trash teams and excelled. Once they started playing good teams, they fell apart. The antIvax debacle in Toronto didn’t help, but it has been more than that.They seemed to have figured it out in June and were really clicking during that 7-2 homestand and sweep of Cleveland.
Then they had to start Seabold in that first game in Toronto. Then Robles blows the save the next day because Houck wasn’t available. Everything snowballed from there.
At an uninspiring 1.5 games ahead of Baltimore in the standings, we're about to be at the sludgy bottom of the AL East.This team was destined for the creamy middle of the American League since they broke camp with no plan B for first base and right field and a small tinder fire in the bullpen.
Being at the bottom of a division where everyone is above .500 doesn't seem that "sludgy" to me.At an uninspiring 1.5 games ahead of Baltimore in the standings, we're about to be at the sludgy bottom of the AL East.
Okay. Cards on the table time; what do you consider a bad season?Being at the bottom of a division where everyone is above .500 doesn't seem that "sludgy" to me.
Not saying it's a good thing, but the hyperbole around here is getting a bit ridiculous. We could be Kansas City.
Well, for starters, I'd say a team needs to be below .500 before you call it a bad season. I also try not to make a blanket judgement on the quality of the entire season when it's barely halfway done. Most pre-season projections had them as an 84-86 win team. 48-45 is an 84 win pace. I'd say so far the season is neither bad nor good. It's blah. It's average. It's middle of the road.Okay. Cards on the table time; what do you consider a bad season?
Because for me, the way that this top-heavy team plays uninspiring, often dumb baseball has been absolutely atrocious. You’re right, the Sox aren’t KC or Oakland or other crap teams, but they shouldn’t be. They were one game and a few innings from the World Series last year and they’ve taken a steaming dump on 2022.
Maybe last year was an aberration, IDK, and they played way over their heads. But even if true, they shouldbe better than this. I’m not sure how you can say this season is “good” or even acceptable.
Can you explain what Bloom could have done this offseason that would have blunted the impact thatOkay. Cards on the table time; what do you consider a bad season?
Because for me, the way that this top-heavy team plays uninspiring, often dumb baseball has been absolutely atrocious. You’re right, the Sox aren’t KC or Oakland or other crap teams, but they shouldn’t be. They were one game and a few innings from the World Series last year and they’ve taken a steaming dump on 2022.
Maybe last year was an aberration, IDK, and they played way over their heads. But even if true, they shouldbe better than this. I’m not sure how you can say this season is “good” or even acceptable.
Bloom could have investigated finding replacements for guys like Bradley and Dalbec, no? What did the Yankees give up for Carpenter? JD and Boagerts aren’t the problem. The problem is that the team is routinely starting 5-6 below average offensive players each and every night; and staffed their rotation with injury prone back of the rotation pitchers. Is anyone really shocked that Rich Hill and Michael Wacha went on the DL?Can you explain what Bloom could have done this offseason that would have blunted the impact that
A our entire starting rotation from April is/was on the IL resulting in the Sox using a starting rotation made up entire of AAA players at one point
Xander and JDM having a huge power outage during the first half of this season when compared to the first half of last year, and there were weeks where it was pretty much Devers carrying the team to a win because the 8 other bats in the lineup were all ice cold... Thats not including injures to our offense (kikė for example)
Xander:
2021
JDM:
I think it's less about moving goalposts and more that a lot of people seemed to have higher and perhaps baseless expectations of this team. I'm not particularly happy that the team is 48-45 at the ASB, but I also wasn't expecting them to have 70 wins and be leading the division by 15 games either. And it seems like expectations of the latter happening is the only thing that could lead one to see this team as an unmitigated disaster right now rather than a flawed team going through a rough stretch where injuries have decimated the rather fragile roster at exactly the wrong time.It also seems like the goalposts are constantly shifting here- now some are saying 84-85 wins is ok because this team wasn’t expected to be that great but is that really the consensus? Thought the preseason predictions here by SoSh expected better than that.
Good news is that they can certainly still make the playoffs and write the ending of the story.
In the preseason prediction thread, 85-89 wins was the leading vote getter.I think how a team is doing also needs to take into account the direction that it seems they are heading. A team that is a few games above .500 but is seeing a lot of development from young players is probably going to be more exciting to its fans than a top heavy team that is getting its best performances from players unlikely to be around much longer. A team that is winning thrilling games is going to generate more enthusiasm than one giving away a lot of winnable ones.
I guess it’s a bit subjective but does this feel like the beginning of something good or the last gasps of the Red Sox team that has averaged 94 wins the last five full, normal seasons?
It also seems like the goalposts are constantly shifting here- now some are saying 84-85 wins is ok because this team wasn’t expected to be that great but is that really the consensus? Thought the preseason predictions here by SoSh expected better than that.
Good news is that they can certainly still make the playoffs and write the ending of the story.
They’re currently on track (.516 x 69) to win 84 games.In the preseason prediction thread, 85-89 wins was the leading vote getter.
Schwarber's making $19M this season, and $20M for the next three years. Gausman is making $21M this year and next, then $22M-$23M-$23M the three following years. Would you do either of those contracts?Maybe not spend $21M on Paxton, Diekman, and Bradley and instead use it on guys who can play? Schwarber, Gausman, Rodon- the alternate options are plentiful.
Agreed, but slightly less hopeful than this post. I think the torrid June led some to increase their expectations, and correspondingly their disappointment these past couple weeks (I know I am disappointed the Sox didn't at least put up a fight againt NYY and TB).I think it's less about moving goalposts and more that a lot of people seemed to have higher and perhaps baseless expectations of this team. I'm not particularly happy that the team is 48-45 at the ASB, but I also wasn't expecting them to have 70 wins and be leading the division by 15 games either. And it seems like expectations of the latter happening is the only thing that could lead one to see this team as an unmitigated disaster right now rather than a flawed team going through a rough stretch where injuries have decimated the rather fragile roster at exactly the wrong time.
Plan B was Casas and Duran. As far as plan B's go good looking prospects is not a bad way to go.They figured out that they were playing trash teams and excelled. Once they started playing good teams, they fell apart. The antIvax debacle in Toronto didn’t help, but it has been more than that.
This team was destined for the creamy middle of the American League since they broke camp with no plan B for first base and right field and a small tinder fire in the bullpen.
There are three hitters who have been consistent and two of them are free agents this winter and the other is one the year after. I doubt that they’re going to sign X or JD so I can’t imagine what a dumpster fire this team will be in 2023.
huh?They’re currently on track (.516 x 59) to win 78 games.
Except they have 69 games remaining, not 59. A team with a .516 winning percentage continuing to win at that pace should not end up below .500 at the end of the season.They’re currently on track (.516 x 59) to win 78 games.
Three games over .500 and if they play that pace the rest of the way, they finish 3 games below .500?They’re currently on track (.516 x 59) to win 78 games.
Explain to me why Xander and JDM are not part of the problem when they are severely underperforming compared to the first half of last year?Bloom could have investigated finding replacements for guys like Bradley and Dalbec, no? What did the Yankees give up for Carpenter? JD and Boagerts aren’t the problem. The problem is that the team is routinely starting 5-6 below average offensive players each and every night; and staffed their rotation with injury prone back of the rotation pitchers. Is anyone really shocked that Rich Hill and Michael Wacha went on the DL?
Maybe not spend $21M on Paxton, Diekman, and Bradley and instead use it on guys who can play? Schwarber, Gausman, Rodon- the alternate options are plentiful.
Injuries happen, but the Rays are pretty hobbled and they just smoked the Sox. There’s always an excuse if you are looking for one.
The arguments by the Bloom fanboys/girls always seem to suggest that he did what he did because what else could have he done? How is that a legitimate defense?
Dalbec hit the cover off the ball the last few months of the season and Casas was right around the corner. So it is less about what else he could have done and more how what he did do made sense at the time.Bloom could have investigated finding replacements for guys like Bradley and Dalbec, no? What did the Yankees give up for Carpenter? JD and Boagerts aren’t the problem. The problem is that the team is routinely starting 5-6 below average offensive players each and every night; and staffed their rotation with injury prone back of the rotation pitchers. Is anyone really shocked that Rich Hill and Michael Wacha went on the DL?
Maybe not spend $21M on Paxton, Diekman, and Bradley and instead use it on guys who can play? Schwarber, Gausman, Rodon- the alternate options are plentiful.
Injuries happen, but the Rays are pretty hobbled and they just smoked the Sox. There’s always an excuse if you are looking for one.
The arguments by the Bloom fanboys/girls always seem to suggest that he did what he did because what else could have he done? How is that a legitimate defense?
Was never any good at math.Except they have 69 games remaining, not 59. A team with a .516 winning percentage continuing to win at that pace should not end up below .500 at the end of the season.
I think it’s just a narrative you’ve created; why blame 3 of the teams 4/5 decent offensive performers and give a pass to those who have provided nothing?Explain to me why Xander and JDM are not part of the problem when they are severely underperforming compared to the first half of last year?
If i told you before the season that Xander would put up the statline he currently has at the ASB, you would have been fine with that?
same thing with JDM.
And the Bolded is unnecessary.