Red Sox in season discussion

[Pedroia's Itchy Nose]

Add to this that Price was a FA and given a 7 year 217M contract. The same sort of contract that some are crushing Bloom for not yet handing out.

I think this highlights the same underlying point that I made in the 2022 rotation thread. People moan about short contract acquisitions as if they aren't going to add anything and pine for the guys that are getting 9 figure deals as if they are a sure thing.

Price is a great example of why this logic is flawed. Even if the contract was an overpay, it was at least in the ballpark of what would have been expected at the time. Price had just put together 6 seasons with an average fWAR of 4.95 and 31.67 starts per season. Weighted 3-2-1 for the prior 3 seasons the average weighted fWAR was 5.88.

Then he signed that 7 year contract with 31mm AAV. Since signing he's averaged only 2.26 fWAR per year over 5 years and average 21.8 starts per season. He hasn't been useless, but his 13.71mm per fWAR is pretty terrible.

 

[oumbi]

Need to upgrade the bullpen and 2 more bats imo.

Okay, but any suggestions who, and how, the Sox should add to the bull pen? Also, "2 more bats" only prompts the questions such as, at what positions? What sort of hitters are you talking about?

More details and information on your thinking would be appreciated.

 

[BravesField]

Man. If the season started today . . .

Thank goodness for the lockout?

I was at my neighbor’s house yesterday. He just was putting his tree up. There were NO PRESENTS under it.

It's really not too far off from the opening day line up a year ago. 7 on this list opened in 2021 against Baltimore. The changes are Renfroe and Marwin out and JBJ and Arroyo in.

 

[benhogan]

At the risk of seeming like I'm stalking you, I'd like to reiterate that the two "good pitchers" that you keep bringing up (Matz and ERod) are not bell cow pitchers. Matz is below league average ERA+ for his career with a crap FIP to go with it. ERod's career numbers are better, but he was league average last year ERA+ (better FIP) after missing 2020 (not his fault). Not just "not sure bets", but kind of risky both.

Now, that doesn't mean that they won't be good pitchers next year. ERod in particular had a better FIP than his ERA+ would imply. And maybe Matz has finally figured it out after four blah years in a row.

But your premise seems to be that Bloom not pushing his chips into the middle for those guys implies that he won't do it for the right guys. And these facts are not in evidence.

Yep, just let Bloom continue to sell high/buy low, re-load the prospect inventory, find value at the end of free agency and add high-priced rentals at midseason from sellers.

A deep farm will let them address any in-season needs.

Winning the off-season Nov/Dec Free Agency Game is a fools' errand.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Price was a bad signing and I’m much more worried about pitchers than position players in long term deals…. But Price was a killer in the ‘18 playoffs. Wouldn’t have won the WS without him. Was the contract “worth it” because of that? People here say the Dodgers “won” the Betts deal because he helped them along the way to a WS*

 

[Cesar Crespo]

As long as they are winning games, I don't care who they are signing or for what amounts.

 

[E5 Yaz]

As long as they are winning games, I don't care who they are signing or for what amounts.

Style points are the new VORP

 

[benhogan]

As long as they are winning games, I don't care who they are signing or for what amounts.

the Rangers are undefeated and Sox are winless for December

DEFCON 1

 

[IpswichSox]

Sean McAdam re: Suzuki

The Renfroe-for-Bradley swap has more than a few people in the game believing that the Sox are intent on landing Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki, whose posting process was frozen when the lockout went in effect. The thinking: Suzuki could play right field for the Sox, replacing Renfroe both defensively and as a productive right-handed bat. The Sox could then keep Kike Hernandez in center and Alex Verdugo in left. That may well be true, but though one major league source reports the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox have been the most aggressive in pursuit of Suzuki, teams can hardly be certain of the player's attention. The Sox could, after all, be the highest bidders for Suzuki, only to learn that he would rather play on the West Coast, the way Shohei Ohtani did a few years back. Still, Suzuki would fill an obvious need for the Sox, and importantly, not cost them any draft picks. One major league evaluator who has scouted Suzuki extensively for his club remarked to colleagues recently that Suzuki is, indeed, "a difference-maker.''

https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2021/12/04/making-sense-of-flurry-of-sox-moves-before-lockout

 

[jon abbey]

FWIW I have not seen a single report connecting NY to Suzuki before that and they have many greater positional needs.

 

[Sox Puppet]

I must admit, I didn't know anything about Seiya Suzuki until about a month ago. This is promising:

A five-time All-Star in Japan, Suzuki will be one of the top outfielders on the free-agent market once he's available. Over nine NBP seasons, Suzuki has hit .315/.415/.571 with 182 homers in 901 games. The 27-year-old had 38 homers and a 1.075 OPS in 2021. He's drawn comparisons to Braves superstar Ronald Acuña Jr.

On the other hand, the track record of Japanese position players in MLB is less than inspiring, except of course for Ichiro and Hideki Matsui. Are there any SoSH readers plugged into NPB who can comment on his likelihood of a successful transition?

 

[snowmanny]

Ohtani has been kind of OK

ed-oh I see he is a dh; not sure that parsing makes a predictive difference

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Ohtani has been kind of OK

ed-oh I see he is a dh; not sure that parsing makes a predictive difference

There have been a few that were actually "kind of ok." They started their careers a bit late though, so they tailed off after a couple years. Seiya has age on his side, anyway.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_from_Japan

 

[YTF]

I must admit, I didn't know anything about Seiya Suzuki until about a month ago. This is promising:



On the other hand, the track record of Japanese position players in MLB is less than inspiring, except of course for Ichiro and Hideki Matsui. Are there any SoSH readers plugged into NPB who can comment on his likelihood of a successful transition?

Career .402 OBP and .943 OPS over nine seasons is attractive. And FWIW he's played 73 games at 3B and 67 at SS. I'm sure he'd slot as your primary RF, but that little bit of flexibility in case of an in game injury or extra inning game never hurts.

 

[Orel Miraculous]

On the other hand, the track record of Japanese position players in MLB is less than inspiring, except of course for Ichiro and Hideki Matsui. Are there any SoSH readers plugged into NPB who can comment on his likelihood of a successful transition?

"Except of course for the greatest contact hitter of all-time and a multiple-time all-star" is quite the caveat.

There have only been 16 position players to come over from Japan. Two of them have cemented their place as no-doubter all-time greats (Ichiro and Ohtani), and Matsui (though he came over at the tail end of his prime) proved that he was in that class as well. And then there are guys like Johjima and Aoki who were above average regulars despite coming over after they turned 30 (Johjima was one of the best catchers in the league as a rookie). What kind of track record are you looking for?

 

[Sox Puppet]

I blanked on Ohtani because I was thinking of former players, not current ones, but point well taken. I'll retract any comparison to past NPB position players, except to say that there's been much more of a track record of success for pitchers making the leap -- even those who've eventually broken down from overuse.

So my real question is, for those in the know, does Seiya Suzuki seem like someone whose skills will translate to MLB? Like, for instance, this article talks about a comparison to Yoshi Tsutsugo, who had similar power numbers in Japan but struggled with MLB fastballs, and was mostly a dud before showing improvement with Pittsburgh. The article seems bullish on Suzuki having a better approach at the plate than Tsutsugo.

 

[BornToRun]

"Except of course for the greatest contact hitter of all-time and a multiple-time all-star" is quite the caveat.

There have only been 16 position players to come over from Japan. Two of them have cemented their place as no-doubter all-time greats (Ichiro and Ohtani), and Matsui (though he came over at the tail end of his prime) proved that he was in that class as well. And then there are guys like Johjima and Aoki who were above average regulars despite coming over after they turned 30 (Johjima was one of the best catchers in the league as a rookie). What kind of track record are you looking for?

We all know that Hideki’s prime contribution was his ridiculous porn collection.

 

[nvalvo]

I blanked on Ohtani because I was thinking of former players, not current ones, but point well taken. I'll retract any comparison to past NPB position players, except to say that there's been much more of a track record of success for pitchers making the leap -- even those who've eventually broken down from overuse.

So my real question is, for those in the know, does Seiya Suzuki seem like someone whose skills will translate to MLB? Like, for instance, this article talks about a comparison to Yoshi Tsutsugo, who had similar power numbers in Japan but struggled with MLB fastballs, and was mostly a dud before showing improvement with Pittsburgh. The article seems bullish on Suzuki having a better approach at the plate than Tsutsugo.

Tsutsugo has 387 career PA, and as you say, was quite good in his stint with Pittsburgh (144 PA, so ~1/3 his total, and a .263/.347/.535 line). A big part of that improvement is that he knocked a few ticks off the K% and finally had a league average BABIP. The batted ball numbers all look respectable.

So I think there's a decent chance that we'll look back this time next year and see Tsutsugo as a guy who took a couple hundred PA to adjust to stateside baseball.

 

[Tokyo Sox]

So my real question is, for those in the know, does Seiya Suzuki seem like someone whose skills will translate to MLB? Like, for instance, this article talks about a comparison to Yoshi Tsutsugo, who had similar power numbers in Japan but struggled with MLB fastballs, and was mostly a dud before showing improvement with Pittsburgh. The article seems bullish on Suzuki having a better approach at the plate than Tsutsugo.

I agree with the article for the most part, and I think Tsutsugo is the wrong comp for Suzuki for all the reasons stated - Suzuki is a better contact hitter and is much more selective. He walks as much as he K's, and still managed to hit for more power than Tsutsugo did - Suzuki has 42 points of SLG (and 75 points of OPS!) on Tsutsugo for their NPB careers. A better comp is probably Kosuke Fukudome, who was a .400+ OBP guy with a bit of pop before going over, and then was...fine? But Suzuki is stronger and I think better and more consistent than Fukudome. (As a complete aside, Fukudome is still playing over here. He's 44 but still grinding out ABs for the Chunichi Dragons when they let him.)

Personally I think if Suzuki is the replacement for Renfroe it will be a wash defensively, and a significant gain at the plate. I am giddy with anticipation, and when they traded Renfroe I went straight to the Hiroshima Carp team store and bought a couple Suzuki shirts. Hopefully I don't have to end up giving them away to a Mariners fan friend or something.

 

[jacklamabe65]

Beyond the Monster: Boston Red Sox


"Seiya Suzuki followed the Boston Red Sox on IG It’s the only team he is following on IG… I’m sure he’s only following Bregman to troll him in the future."

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Beyond the Monster: Boston Red Sox

"Seiya Suzuki followed the Boston Red Sox on IG It’s the only team he is following on IG… I’m sure he’s only following Bregman to troll him in the future."

Just to throw a possible alternate explanation out there: one former teammate of Suzuki's is Ryan Brasier. Maybe he follows the Sox to follow his old mate?

 

[JM3]

Just to throw a possible alternate explanation out there: one former teammate of Suzuki's is Ryan Brasier. Maybe he follows the Sox to follow his old mate?

Counterpoint - he doesn't follow Ryan Brasier.

He does follow JD Martinez, Papi, several Angels, some Astros & Bryce Harper among others, though.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

Based on news from the Owners/Players negotiations, and Manfred's comment about rule changes not being discussed, I'm thinking it is less likely there is a DH in the National League next year. Obviously, that very well may change, and my best case scenario is for the Sox to trade Martinez (with prospects for a pitcher) and add both Suzuki and Schwarber. But, I don't see any way to have Suzuki and Schwarber and Martinez on the roster and it will be much harder to trade Martinez if AL teams are the only potential destination. If that's the case, I think I'd rather add Schwarber. Suzuki has exciting potential but also much more risk, and I think he'll get more years.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Based on news from the Owners/Players negotiations, and Manfred's comment about rule changes not being discussed, I'm thinking it is less likely there is a DH in the National League next year. Obviously, that very well may change, and my best case scenario is for the Sox to trade Martinez (with prospects for a pitcher) and add both Suzuki and Schwarber. But, I don't see any way to have Suzuki and Schwarber and Martinez on the roster and it will be much harder to trade Martinez if AL teams are the only potential destination. If that's the case, I think I'd rather add Schwarber. Suzuki has exciting potential but also much more risk, and I think he'll get more years.

I would be shocked if they can't trade JD for something at the deadline. Some contender is always looking for a bat. Even an NL team might think that JD puts them over the top, while they hide him in LF.

If Bloom likes Suzuki and Schwarber, I hope that he grabs them both (assuming that we have a season).

 

[chawson]

Based on news from the Owners/Players negotiations, and Manfred's comment about rule changes not being discussed, I'm thinking it is less likely there is a DH in the National League next year. Obviously, that very well may change, and my best case scenario is for the Sox to trade Martinez (with prospects for a pitcher) and add both Suzuki and Schwarber. But, I don't see any way to have Suzuki and Schwarber and Martinez on the roster and it will be much harder to trade Martinez if AL teams are the only potential destination. If that's the case, I think I'd rather add Schwarber. Suzuki has exciting potential but also much more risk, and I think he'll get more years.

The way to get Schwarber, Martinez and Suzuki on the same roster is to trade Dalbec (very possible, I’d say) or Verdugo (very unlikely).

 

[Farty Barrett]

The way to get Schwarber, Martinez and Suzuki on the same roster is to trade Dalbec (very possible, I’d say) or Verdugo (very unlikely).

I would like to see Bloom take a chance on Puig before parting ways with Verdugo.

If Puig is in fact misrepresented by the media, then taking a chance on a guy trying to rebuild his character and act as an example for Latin born players acclimating to the US, he could be a welcomed personality.

He could be cheap and valuable, but if the rumors are true then he really is clubhouse poison and obviously stay away.[/QUOTE]

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I would like to see Bloom take a chance on Puig before parting ways with Verdugo.

If Puig is in fact misrepresented by the media, then taking a chance on a guy trying to rebuild his character and act as an example for Latin born players acclimating to the US, he could be a welcomed personality.

He could be cheap and valuable, but if the rumors are true then he really is clubhouse poison and obviously stay away.

Big hell no to Puig. Not the kind of baggage they should be bringing in, especially since he's two years removed from playing in a big league game.

 

[YTF]

I would like to see Bloom take a chance on Puig before parting ways with Verdugo.

If Puig is in fact misrepresented by the media, then taking a chance on a guy trying to rebuild his character and act as an example for Latin born players acclimating to the US, he could be a welcomed personality.

He could be cheap and valuable, but if the rumors are true then he really is clubhouse poison and obviously stay away.

[/QUOTE]
Puig's not played in the majors since 2019, but he's only 30. Does anyone know if he's been playing organised ball anywhere these pat two years?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Puig's not played in the majors since 2019, but he's only 30. Does anyone know if he's been playing organised ball anywhere these pat two years?

He played in Mexico this year, primarily because he was blackballed last winter for the assault allegations/lawsuit. He has since settled that lawsuit which I presume is why his name is coming up again. The Sox don't want to be the team to bring him back even if he can still play.

 

[nighthob]

Based on news from the Owners/Players negotiations, and Manfred's comment about rule changes not being discussed, I'm thinking it is less likely there is a DH in the National League next year. Obviously, that very well may change, and my best case scenario is for the Sox to trade Martinez (with prospects for a pitcher) and add both Suzuki and Schwarber. But, I don't see any way to have Suzuki and Schwarber and Martinez on the roster and it will be much harder to trade Martinez if AL teams are the only potential destination. If that's the case, I think I'd rather add Schwarber. Suzuki has exciting potential but also much more risk, and I think he'll get more years.

I'll be shocked if the NL owners agree to a CBA that leaves them as the junior league. Manfred made this a CBA issue in order to force concessions, but it really isn't. And it will come. Never fear.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I must admit, I didn't know anything about Seiya Suzuki until about a month ago. This is promising:

On the other hand, the track record of Japanese position players in MLB is less than inspiring, except of course for Ichiro and Hideki Matsui. Are there any SoSH readers plugged into NPB who can comment on his likelihood of a successful transition?

As sort of an aside, Bref says there are 72 Japanese born players (including Dave Roberts). The Sox have done pretty good there: Matsuzaka, Nomo, Ohka, Okajima, Uehara. The Mariners, with Ichiro and Iwakuma, might have accumulated the most WAR out of Japanese players - or perhaps the Dodgers or NY might have snuck into the lead. Hmm.

As a nothing-better-to-do exercise, I wonder which feeder countries the Sox have gotten the most WAR out of - and which countries we've captured a significant percentage of the total WAR?

We've had some mighty Dominicans, we've had some awesome Cubans. . .but Aruba? We've captured 29 of the country's 38 WAR.

 

[chrisfont9]

Price was a bad signing and I’m much more worried about pitchers than position players in long term deals…. But Price was a killer in the ‘18 playoffs. Wouldn’t have won the WS without him. Was the contract “worth it” because of that? People here say the Dodgers “won” the Betts deal because he helped them along the way to a WS*

Price was only a bad signing in hindsight, and in the context of a team that was spending too much on starting pitching. At the time it was a fine signing, a bit of an overpay maybe but he filled a huge need at a position that is hard to fill, frontline starter, and was coming off a long, outstanding track record. If you saw him immediately losing some of his pop, you were among the minority. Given that he did end up producing for a world champion, at most you would call it a not shocking free agent overpay where the team pays for past performance and ends up getting something less.

The real problem is that the Sox hadn't developed a single starting rotation piece outside of the declining Buchholz and Seven Wright, a complete flyer, so by 2019 they had to give out big deals for Porcello and Eovaldi and, IMO the worst decision at the time, the Sale extension -- which on the day it was signed there was plenty of reason to wonder why the Sox didn't wait to see if his arm was breaking down. Price's contract was vilified but the real flaw was that they completely failed to develop guys on pre-arb or arb deals so that you could afford to pay the high-level veteran markup for one guy, get some quick value, and then live with the declining years.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Price was only a bad signing in hindsight, and in the context of a team that was spending too much on starting pitching. At the time it was a fine signing, a bit of an overpay maybe but he filled a huge need at a position that is hard to fill, frontline starter, and was coming off a long, outstanding track record. If you saw him immediately losing some of his pop, you were among the minority. Given that he did end up producing for a world champion, at most you would call it a not shocking free agent overpay where the team pays for past performance and ends up getting something less.

The real problem is that the Sox hadn't developed a single starting rotation piece outside of the declining Buchholz and Seven Wright, a complete flyer, so by 2019 they had to give out big deals for Porcello and Eovaldi and, IMO the worst decision at the time, the Sale extension -- which on the day it was signed there was plenty of reason to wonder why the Sox didn't wait to see if his arm was breaking down. Price's contract was vilified but the real flaw was that they completely failed to develop guys on pre-arb or arb deals so that you could afford to pay the high-level veteran markup for one guy, get some quick value, and then live with the declining years.

Don’t get me wrong…. I was pro-Price and still am.
In WAR value perhaps he was a bad signing…. But IDGAF. The guy was a horse in the ‘18 playoffs. That to me makes him worth it.

 

[Joe Nation]

Stats cites this tidbit from Heyman's podcast

 

[nvalvo]

Don’t get me wrong…. I was pro-Price and still am.
In WAR value perhaps he was a bad signing…. But IDGAF. The guy was a horse in the ‘18 playoffs. That to me makes him worth it.

Well, exactly. It was a bad deal, but it was precisely the kind of bad deal a team that is a piece or two away from a title should be willing to make. And as you say, it paid off in the 2018 postseason, when he had a cWPA of 9.57% across the three series, which is even more wild when you consider that his first two appearances were poor.

 

[Daniel_Son]

Stats cites this tidbit from Heyman's podcast

I really don't get this one. Why not take the money you're giving to Story and put it towards extending Xander? He's not much of an upgrade - if anything, Xander is the better player.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

It makes sense in a “hey Xander, we are about to sign Story and then we won’t be able to resign you” kind of way.

 

[YTF]

I really don't get this one. Why not take the money you're giving to Story and put it towards extending Xander? He's not much of an upgrade - if anything, Xander is the better player.

I believe Bogaerts has expressed interest in opting out so there are a couple of questions of which the answers we don't know.
# 1...What is Bogaerts looking for in terms of $$$, years, opt out and no trade clauses.
#2...What is Story looking for in terms of $$$ years, opt out and no trade clauses.

 

[Papo The Snow Tiger]

As sort of an aside, Bref says there are 72 Japanese born players (including Dave Roberts). The Sox have done pretty good there: Matsuzaka, Nomo, Ohka, Okajima, Uehara. The Mariners, with Ichiro and Iwakuma, might have accumulated the most WAR out of Japanese players - or perhaps the Dodgers or NY might have snuck into the lead. Hmm.

As a nothing-better-to-do exercise, I wonder which feeder countries the Sox have gotten the most WAR out of - and which countries we've captured a significant percentage of the total WAR?

We've had some mighty Dominicans, we've had some awesome Cubans. . .but Aruba? We've captured 29 of the country's 38 WAR.

As a really nothing better to do exercise I looked it up and the Sox have gotten the third best WAR for pitchers born in Holland. HOF'er Bert Blyleven has the career best WAR at 96.09, Rynie Wolters (1871-1873) is second at 1.95 and one of my personal favorite Red Sox alumni Win Remmerswaal is third with a career WAR of 0.11.

Players by birthplace: Netherlands Baseball Stats and Info | Baseball-Reference.com

 

[YTF]

As a really nothing better to do exercise I looked it up and the Sox have gotten the third best WAR for pitchers born in Holland. HOF'er Bert Blyleven has the career best WAR at 96.09, Rynie Wolters (1871-1873) is second at 1.95 and one of my personal favorite Red Sox alumni Win Remmerswaal is third with a career WAR of 0.11.

Players by birthplace: Netherlands Baseball Stats and Info | Baseball-Reference.com

His less successful brother is a member here.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

As a really nothing better to do exercise I looked it up and the Sox have gotten the third best WAR for pitchers born in Holland. HOF'er Bert Blyleven has the career best WAR at 96.09, Rynie Wolters (1871-1873) is second at 1.95 and one of my personal favorite Red Sox alumni Win Remmerswaal is third with a career WAR of 0.11.

Players by birthplace: Netherlands Baseball Stats and Info | Baseball-Reference.com

I thought Korea would do well. Maybe they did in the grand scheme of things but not in any real meaningful way. DD spend a lot of money in Korea in the 90s. None of it really paid off. They got more out of BHK.

 

[scottyno]

I really don't get this one. Why not take the money you're giving to Story and put it towards extending Xander? He's not much of an upgrade - if anything, Xander is the better player.

Requires Xander to want an extension right now, we have no idea if he wants that or not. And Story also is much more of a long term fit at SS than Xander is, whether that matters or not depends on what they plan on doing with other parts of the roster.

If they can get Story to agree on paper today it makes sense, otherwise they're dealing with a big unknown for a year with X.

 

[sean1562]

How much does Mayer play into roster construction right now? Do we really want to sign someone long term to play SS when we have one of the top SS prospects in baseball with an ETA of 2024? Or would the idea be have Story play 2B next year, move to SS until Mayer is ready, and then move back to 2B when Mayer is ready?

I doubt we would get much of a discount on a Devers extension this offseason. Maybe the play is to see how Casas does this year in a callup, sign him to an early extension like the Acuna/Franco deals if he lives up to the hype, and just let Xander and Devers play out their contracts. Hopefully Bloom is more aggressive with those early extension deals than Dombrowski was but that whole calculus may change once we see the new CBA.

2024 is a long ways away in terms of prospect development. It is certainly possible that we have a 3B prospect that could fill Devers shoes by that time, especially if we are getting premier production out of the 1B position.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

How much does Mayer play into roster construction right now? Do we really want to sign someone long term to play SS when we have one of the top SS prospects in baseball with an ETA of 2024? Or would the idea be have Story play 2B next year, move to SS until Mayer is ready, and then move back to 2B when Mayer is ready?

I doubt we would get much of a discount on a Devers extension this offseason. Maybe the play is to see how Casas does this year in a callup, sign him to an early extension like the Acuna/Franco deals if he lives up to the hype, and just let Xander and Devers play out their contracts. Hopefully Bloom is more aggressive with those early extension deals than Dombrowski was but that whole calculus may change once we see the new CBA.

2024 is a long ways away in terms of prospect development. It is certainly possible that we have a 3B prospect that could fill Devers shoes by that time, especially if we are getting premier production out of the 1B position.

Little. An ETA of 2024 isn't necessarily best case but it's a very good outcome. He hasn't even played in A ball yet. That would put him on track for half a year in A and A+ in 2022, half a year in AA/AAA in 2023, Majors in 2024.. I wouldn't be shocked if he plays sometime in 2024, but even if he does, you can't start the season without a SS. I wouldn't be writing him in as a full time starter until 2025. That's also assume he works out, doesn't have his development delayed to injury and tons of other things. He's not a 100% sure thing.

Plus, if you are worried about Mayer being ready in 2024, where does Nick Yorke play when he's ready in 2023? 2b is open for 2023, but than he'd have to make room for Story in 2024. I think the Sox worry about the Yorke/Mayer problem when it actually becomes a problem. If Story is playing well, they could always trade him after 23 or 24 as well.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Requires Xander to want an extension right now, we have no idea if he wants that or not. And Story also is much more of a long term fit at SS than Xander is, whether that matters or not depends on what they plan on doing with other parts of the roster.

If they can get Story to agree on paper today it makes sense, otherwise they're dealing with a big unknown for a year with X.

Well, no one's agreeing to anything on paper today or anytime soon.

I'm hesitant to get too deep into any scenario based on Jon "agent mouthpiece" Heyman speculation. The Red Sox are just too convenient a "mystery team" to trust that they're seriously in on a premier player who plays the same position as their franchise cornerstone (contract situation be damned).

 

[StuckOnYouk]

If Chaim is getting the feeling with the Devers camp that they are asking for something a lot more than he is willing to give, at what point as a GM do you start getting a feeler from some teams on what kind of prospect package they would offer?
I was really hoping this off-season they could find a middle ground, but as of now it sounds like they aren’t close.
The more time you give another team to have Devers, the more of a monster haul you can get obviously

 

[Cesar Crespo]

at what point as a GM do you start getting a feeler from some teams on what kind of prospect package they would offer?

2017. Teams should always have a general idea of their own players' trade value. For Chaim, the minute he got here.

I'm sure he's already had teams ask on (and even had offers on) Devers without having to shop him around.

 

[Pedroia's Itchy Nose]

I think that players like Devers are the special few that it actually might be good to hand out a long term contract to. Splashing 8 years to get his age 27-32 seasons would be a relatively low risk, high impact way to leverage financial advantage. Heck, I could even imagine going up to 10 years. It doesn't even need to be at a discount for it to be worthwhile. Superstar free agents are a trap, but locking up young talent long term without having to buy into too much of his higher risk post-prime years is about as good as it can get.

 

[chrisfont9]

It makes sense in a “hey Xander, we are about to sign Story and then we won’t be able to resign you” kind of way.

Which is insane, because they are the same age and Bogaerts, along with proving he can play in Boston on winning teams, is statistically better than Story across the board, even though Story plays in Colorado. Except for dWAR, which isn't something you want to use as the basis for a foundational roster decision.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I'm firmly in "believe it when I see it" mode on the Red Sox' interest in any big FA at this point. I assume all reports of them being "in on" anyone is someone in the front office doing the - alleged! - Danny Ainge move of "Well, we were close on this guy, but..."

(I realize that nobody's going anywhere for a while, but the point stands.)