Red Sox in season discussion

[billy ashley]

I think it's pretty clear that Chaim's MO is to try to improve the team as much as possible, without damaging the team's ability to sustain success over the long term. To do so, he seems to be very comfortable with uncertainty with respect to individual players or positions, so long as the sum of all the parts is an improvement.

Subsequently, I don't think there is a checklist of things he's going to want to accomplish. Rather, I think the front office is going to treat this offseason much like they treat the draft: Identify how much they value each resource, attempt to secure those resources at the value they've appraised it, or less. They're not going to be cheap(Mayer in the draft), they're not going to be risk-adverse (Fabian), and they're also not going to let one specific player change their entire mindset (Fabian again).

As a fan, I want to see:

• Re-sign E-Rod
• Extend the left side of the IF
• Move Xander to LF
• Sign Correa or another one of the available shortstops
• Pick up another starter
• Keep Houk in the pen

I think more likely they're going to do the following:

• Offer E-Rod a fair contract that meets
  • Be prepared for Rodriquez to want to explore the market (it's his right) offer him a QO if that's the case. Hope he comes back at the fair offer made, but be prepared for him to leave
  • If he doesn't re-sign explore the market of SPs, especially those who did not or could not receive a QO
• Hope that JD opts out
  • He's a fine hitter, but he's paid essentially market value for what he does, and he comes with some additional age-related performance drop off risk
  • Be prepared for him not to opt-out, understanding impact to financials for the rest of the season
• Discuss an extension with Devers
  • As with E-Rod, make a fair and realistic offer but not exceed the value they have placed on the life of his next contract
  • Determine if they're fine going year by year until free agency if an extension isn't viable
• Determine if the weaknesses existing within the current controlled for 22 roster are acceptable
  • Infield defense, specifically Xander at SS
  • Pitching in general. Not really a weakness, but Barnes and Ottavino's (predictable and probably not their fault) breakdowns add a pretty big dose of risk for next year
  • The fact that Kike Hernandez can play both CF and 2B, but can't do both at the same time and the OF defense is ugly without him, without him at 2B, are we comfortable with Arroyo
  • Act to improve these weaknesses, again following the general theme of not
• Look for bargain deals for players with potential impact talent that may be overlooked: 2021 versions of Whitlock, Andriese (this didn't work out), and to a lesser degree Renfroe

I think Bloom and the entire FO has earned a ton of trust over these two seasons. I'm excited to see what they do.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I think that picking up Vazquez’s option is one of the first things they’ll do

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

On that note, Cora mentioned tonight that he noticed in the middle of Game 4 a change in the way Houston pitched the lineup ... and the hitters never made the proper adjustments.

That said, as an offense they became so one-dimensional that it seemed as though they simply stopped trying to manufacture an offense. Not just speed, but a succession of patient plate appearances and situational hitting.

When they were hot, it was exciting. When they weren't ...

In 11 playoff games they only had 17 non-HR run-scoring plate appearances. Lots of extra-inning “I’ll do it myself” type swings. We know they are at least capable of grinding out at bats, because they were doing it until the last couple games.

One thing with speed is I’m not sure how you really get there given the composition of the roster. Some traditional speed positions are fairly locked in with players who are either slow or just ok speed-wise. Younger legs will help if they can force their way into the conversation.

Overall I would be pretty surprised at some kind of 8 year deal to carry a position player into their mid-30s. This run was a nice surprise but I don’t see Chaim responding to it with that kind of move. Especially at SS which basically only represents a defensive upgrade if the move is X to 3B and Revers to DH. That boost is valuable but is it $30mil a year for 8 years valuable when you will need to throw a similar deal at Devers? The only scenario where this makes sense to me is a trade of Bogaerts to upgrade elsewhere on the diamond, or some other kind of reshuffling that moves X to LF as mentioned above.

Really excited by the potential of Houck and Whitlock in the rotation but I think it would behoove them to have a 6th guy available in case they turn out to be better suited for multi-inning relief. Seabold may be the Whitlock backfill for a year after only throwing around 60 innings (plus the year off).

 

[mikeford]

Some speed would be nice. Vazquez led the team in SB. I'm not saying we have to become the '85 Cardinals, but a happy medium would be nice. This lineup was constructed like a softball team, and it showed.

I wonder if they'll go into 2022 penciling Duran into a big league spot. He didn't exactly seem like he was ready yet.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I think you want Duran to have the ability to win a job and get a lot of playing time but you also want depth so there’s someone that can step in if he can’t (it was what they needed to do with Dalbec this year, but didn’t). Granted, it’s hard to pull off- the pool of players willing to sign for short money and years tends to be pretty flawed.

Another thing here is that the short money deals that they inked last year giveth and taketh away - it’s great that they can dump Richards and Perez but now they need to find guys to replace them, and it’s fantastic how good Kiki was, but now he’s only got a year left. So do you try to extend him or find the next guy like him. I think it needs to be the latter, but fans and front offices can get sentimental about players who have performed.

 

[YTF]

Who knows what goes on behind the scenes, but IMO Bloom needs to sit down with Cora and develop some sort philosophy that embraces the teaching and execution of solid fundamental baseball. This was not a good defensive team, piss poor base running decisions that was often excused as being "aggressive", The Jekyll/Hyde approach at the plate between patience and first pitch swinging and the inability to drop a bunt when the situation calls for it are all facets of the game that need improvement. Sure this team went to the ACLS despite struggling in the areas I've mentioned, but I think aside from roster changes there needs to be a commitment to playing better, fundamental baseball.

 

[wiltonctsoxfan]

Until Bloom demonstrates he can draft, sign, and/or trade for quality pitching, the Red Sox are not going to win the AL East, let alone another World Series. Sox enter 2022 without any quality pitching depth across their entire minor league organization. Astros, Dodgers, and Braves demonstrate you need to assemble quality pitching depth across your organization to regularly win championships.

 

[OCD SS]

My question is does JD have to decide on his opt out before the lockout deadline if there isn’t a new CBA? Whether or not the NL will have the DH is going to be key to that decision. It will also affect the cost for Schwarber, who I’d rather retain. JD strikes me as a player on the decline.

There is no reason to go all in on a huge raise for X now. Let him play for his contract. I also don’t think Bloom will spend big money on a FA SS. I don’t think they’ll kick X to the curb while signing another player to long term deal who’s best years are likely behind him. Let X play, and if he leaves after 2022 I expect to see the team pick up a stop gap with an eye on Mayer’s development.

Devers on the other hand should be extended. He’s not going to turn into Beltre, but he’s solid enough that he shouldn’t be slotted into a DH role prematurely.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Until Bloom demonstrates he can draft, sign, and/or trade for quality pitching, the Red Sox are not going to win the AL East, let alone another World Series. Sox enter 2022 without any quality pitching depth across their entire minor league organization. Astros, Dodgers, and Braves demonstrate you need to assemble quality pitching depth across your organization to regularly win championships.

The Astros, Dodgers, and Braves have shown us how to regularly win championships?

 

[curly2]

Ward, Walter, Feltman, Murphy and Winkcowski all should be in the discussion for bullpen arms.

Ward had Tommy John surgery in June.

 

[RIrooter09]

Ward had Tommy John surgery in June.

Replace him with Ort then.

 

[JimD]

First order of business for Bloom is to start poaching some key people from the Rays, now that he has the ability to do so. He's had two years to evaluate the existing Sox staff and there should be some opportunities for promising staff in Tampa who may be currently blocked there from moving up.

Re-sign Schwarber to a 3-year deal at reasonable $$$ if you can - worst-case scenario if JD doesn't opt out is that you juggle the lineup for one season. Beyond that, Kyle from Waltham is your DH and isn't blocking Casas at 1B.

Extend the qualifying offer to ERod but I just don't see him being consistent enough to warrant a multiyear deal unless the market somehow falls apart in the wake of a lockout. I'd rather invest those tears and dollars into more of a sure thing big pitching contract if Bloom is inclined to spend big bucks on a SP.

Extend Devers if you can - I think the concerns about his defense are vastly overblown on this board and not nearly as bad as to warrant moving him to a DH position this early in his career. Get Adrian Beltre or another 3B mentor to work one-on-one with him next spring.

 

[wiltonctsoxfan]

The Astros, Dodgers, and Braves have shown us how to regularly win championships?

FACT: In 3 of the last 5 years, both Astros and Dodgers have won their respective league championships and played in the World Series. Braves constantly lead the NL East. None had a team finish in last place like Red Sox. Pretty obvious cases of quality run franchises.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

My question is does JD have to decide on his opt out before the lockout deadline if there isn’t a new CBA? Whether or not the NL will have the DH is going to be key to that decision. It will also affect the cost for Schwarber, who I’d rather retain. JD strikes me as a player on the decline.

5 days after the WS ends, so yes.

 

[jtn46]

FACT: In 3 of the last 5 years, both Astros and Dodgers have won their respective league championships and played in the World Series. Braves constantly lead the NL East. None had a team finish in last place like Red Sox. Pretty obvious cases of quality run franchises.

The Dodgers have an unlimited payroll. They used it in part this season to extend Kershaw who isn’t pitching for them right now and to sign Trevor Bauer who also isn’t pitching for them right now. $60 million. The Dodgers are smart, there are things to learn from them but they are able to cover expensive mistakes that would bury every other team in baseball.

The Braves and Astros stocked up in their awful seasons and built up strong cores but in both cases they are going to have to make very tough calls soon. If there is a lesson to learn from them it is to have a strong FO capable of making the most of down years which is a lesson I believe the Sox have learned. The NL East stinks, too, which helps the Braves.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

FACT: In 3 of the last 5 years, both Astros and Dodgers have won their respective league championships and played in the World Series. Braves constantly lead the NL East. None had a team finish in last place like Red Sox. Pretty obvious cases of quality run franchises.

I will take 4 WS Championships in 20 years vs. their combined success.

your mileage may vary.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I agree in theory with the idea of letting E-Rod go and finding a more sure thing pitcher but the reality is that such pitchers don’t really exist. E-Rod is one of the top pitchers under 30 in MLB and he’s going to get paid, probably a lot more than people think. I imagine 6/120, at least. And with Eovaldi a FA after next year, and Sale with an opt out (although it seems highly unlikely he’d take it), it seems like the Sox should go hard to resign him. If you can expect Houck and Whitlock in the rotation for relatively cheap, doesn’t it make sense to reup Edro? The alternative seems to be gambling on more Richards types.

 

[wiltonctsoxfan]

The Dodgers have an unlimited payroll. They used it in part this season to extend Kershaw who isn’t pitching for them right now and to sign Trevor Bauer who also isn’t pitching for them right now. $60 million. The Dodgers are smart, there are things to learn from them but they are able to cover expensive mistakes that would bury every other team in baseball.

The Braves and Astros stocked up in their awful seasons and built up strong cores but in both cases they are going to have to make very tough calls soon. If there is a lesson to learn from them it is to have a strong FO capable of making the most of down years which is a lesson I believe the Sox have learned. The NL East stinks, too, which helps the Braves.

There is no hard cap in mlb so Dodgers are playing by the rules. More important, Dodgers, Astros, and Braves have adeptly drafted numerous prospects(especially pitchers) that continue to provide them with cheaper young major league depth. Name one pitcher Sox have drafted over the last few years that has chance to win 15 games or 25 saves?

 

[nattysez]

Maury Wills is 89 and Dave Roberts is busy, but I hope they can find a baserunning coach to work with Verdugo. He needs to learn how to take a lead, how to determine when to take an extra base, and situational baserunning tactics.

JDM's decision on his option is the key to the whole off-season given how much $ it opens up and how big a hole is left in the lineup if he departs.

 

[jmcc5400]

There is no hard cap in mlb so Dodgers are playing by the rules. More important, Dodgers, Astros, and Braves have adeptly drafted numerous prospects(especially pitchers) that continue to provide them with cheaper young major league depth. Name one pitcher Sox have drafted over the last few years that has chance to win 15 games or 25 saves?

Tanner Houck?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Somewhere upthread it was posted that adding Seabold as the “Whitlock” to the pen in ‘22.
Great idea.

 

[Diamond Don Aase]

FACT: In 3 of the last 5 years, both Astros and Dodgers have won their respective league championships and played in the World Series. Braves constantly lead the NL East. None had a team finish in last place like Red Sox. Pretty obvious cases of quality run franchises.

The NL Easy? Really? The same division that has seen more than one team finish better than two games over .500 once in the past five seasons? The Braves have done well drafting, signing, and developing talent, even on those occasions when they have done so within baseball’s rules. But Atlanta’s overall performance, particularly in the post-season, has been nothing worth emulating. The Blue Jays would have run away and hid with the 2021 NL East.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I got a feeling that Bloom may not make very many exciting moves this off season. Even with the Sox in contention he didn't want to part with any of his to prospects at the trade deadline last summer, and I don't see him doing that this winter. I also don't see him actively pursuing any big name free agents that would require a long commitment or big money. I think his goal is to build from within.

I’m inclined to agree with this. And, at least with regards to position players, I think it’s at the very least defensible. The offense wasn’t really the problem for this team ( I’m generally not one to read much into October, fwiw), although some small-ish depth moves might make sense. And while I personally would try to upgrade the rotation, particularly if Rodriguez leaves, nothing we’ve seen from Bloom suggests that he’s the type to give a pile of cash to Ray or someone like that.

 

[BaseballJones]

FACT: In 3 of the last 5 years, both Astros and Dodgers have won their respective league championships and played in the World Series. Braves constantly lead the NL East. None had a team finish in last place like Red Sox. Pretty obvious cases of quality run franchises.

Last year Houston played in the ALCS, but had a sub-.500 record during the regular season. Covid weird year but still.

In the last 5 seasons, Boston has made the playoffs in 3 of them, has won the division in 2 of them, has been to the ALCS in 2 of them, and has won one WS - the same number of championships as Houston and the Dodgers.

Every one of us would take that 5-year stretch repeated over and over. Every last one of us.

 

[jtn46]

There is no hard cap in mlb so Dodgers are playing by the rules. More important, Dodgers, Astros, and Braves have adeptly drafted numerous prospects(especially pitchers) that continue to provide them with cheaper young major league depth. Name one pitcher Sox have drafted over the last few years that has chance to win 15 games or 25 saves?

The Sox have been terrible at developing pitching which is why they fired Dombrowski and hired Bloom. I strongly agree they need to get better at it but the Braves and Astros got good in part because of moves they made when they were bad. Ian Anderson was drafted with the 3rd pick, for example.

 

[wiltonctsoxfan]

Tanner Houck?

If Houck can learn a 3rd pitch and gain better control. I agree he could be a competent MLB SP. But Sox pitching prospects pale compares to Dodgers (Buehler, Urias, Gosselin, May, etc..); Astros(Garcia, Valdez, Urquidy etc); Braves (Fried, Anderson, Soroka, etc..) already mlb ready starting pitching. Add to fact each teams' GMs have effectively traded for bullpen depth(Astros nabbing Matan, Yimi Garcia, and Graveman at July deadline to bolster Stanek and Pressley).

I love Sox too and I think they have strong lineup and some quality hitting prospects coming up soon. However, championship teams are built around pitching depth. Unfortunately, this is an area Bloom(thru draft, FA signings(Richards, Perez, Ottavino) and trades) has failed to accomplish in 2 years.

 

[scottyno]

I love Sox too and I think they have strong lineup and some quality hitting prospects coming up soon. However, championship teams are built around pitching depth. Unfortunately, this is an area Bloom(thru draft, FA signings(Richards, Perez, Ottavino) and trades) has failed to accomplish in 2 years.

It's pretty hard to build pitching depth through a draft in 2 years....

In the last 2 years Bloom has already vastly improved their cost controlled pitching simply by trading for Pivetta and picking Whitlock. Combine them with Houck and hopefully Seabold and the Sox pitching depth looks a ton better than two years ago, especially if they keep Erod.

Ottavino, Perez, and Richards were never supposed to be real answers to pitching depth, they were low risk potentially high upside moves that were just stopgaps.

 

[BaseballJones]

Last 5 seasons...

Dodgers
2017 - 104-58 (.642), lost in World Series, 4-3
2018 - 92-71 (.564), lost in World Series, 4-1 (to the Red Sox)
2019 - 106-56 (.654), lost in NLDS, 3-2
2020 - 43-17 (.717), won World Series, 4-2
2021 - 106-56 (.654), currently down 3-2 in NLCS

Braves
2017 - 72-90 (.444), missed playoffs
2018 - 90-72 (.556), lost in NLDS, 3-1
2019 - 97-65 (.599), lost in NLDS, 3-2
2020 - 35-25 (.583), lost in NLCS, 4-3
2021 - 88-73 (.547), currently up 3-2 in NLCS

Astros
2017 - 101-61 (.623), won World Series, 4-3
2018 - 103-59 (.636), lost in ALCS, 4-1 (to the Red Sox)
2019 - 107-55 (.660), lost in ALCS, 4-3
2020 - 29-31 (.483), lost in ALCS, 4-3
2021 - 95-67 (.586), won ALCS, 4-2

Red Sox
2017 - 93-69 (.574), lost in ALDS, 3-1 (to the Astros)
2018 - 108-54 (.667), won World Series, 4-1
2019 - 84-78 (.519), missed playoffs
2020 - 24-36 (.400), missed playoffs
2021 - 92-70 (.568), lost in ALCS, 4-2 (to the Astros)

The Sox have been very good in two of the seasons (2017, 2021), better than average in one season (2019), terrible in the weird Covid year (2020), and otherworldly in one year (2018).

The Dodgers obviously have been off the charts successful the past five years, and the Astros have been great too. But keep in mind the Astros (a) struggled last year too, which, if we want to discount that, we need to discount it for Boston as well, and (b) built the franchise and organization on the back of some godawful years in the early-mid 2010s, where they stockpiled awesome draft picks. Bregman, for example, was drafted in the first round by Houston in 2015 following their 70 win season of 2014 (he was originally drafted by the Red Sox out of HS three years earlier). Springer (who doesn't play for them now but who obviously was a huge factor in this great run of theirs) was drafted in the 1st round of the 2011 draft, following a 76 win season in 2010. Carlos Correa was their first round pick in the 2012 draft, after their 56 win season in 2011.

The point being that the foundation for their incredible run was a bunch of years where they were the laughingstock of baseball.

 

[RedOctober3829]

If Houck can learn a 3rd pitch and gain better control. I agree he could be a competent MLB SP. But Sox pitching prospects pale compares to Dodgers (Buehler, Urias, Gosselin, May, etc..); Astros(Garcia, Valdez, Urquidy etc); Braves (Fried, Anderson, Soroka, etc..) already mlb ready starting pitching. Add to fact each teams' GMs have effectively traded for bullpen depth(Astros nabbing Matan, Yimi Garcia, and Graveman at July deadline to bolster Stanek and Pressley).

I love Sox too and I think they have strong lineup and some quality hitting prospects coming up soon. However, championship teams are built around pitching depth. Unfortunately, this is an area Bloom(thru draft, FA signings(Richards, Perez, Ottavino) and trades) has failed to accomplish in 2 years.

You're bringing up the Dodgers and Astros who took years and years to have the system they enjoy now. Dombrowski came in and got rid of most of the farm system so it will take time to build it to the level of those teams plus the Yankees. How can you say Bloom has failed in the draft in 2 years? Do you expect drafted prospects to go from HS or college to the major leagues in 2 years? Come on. You mention Ottavino who was awesome for them in the first 2/3 of the season. It's not like Bloom was going to waive a magic wand and build the farm system to top 5 in the league. The early returns on players he drafted such as Nick Yorke, Blaze Jordan, and Marcelo Mayer are very encouraging. Bello and Seabold are two very good pitching prospects. Josh Winckowski made major strides this year.

 

[wiltonctsoxfan]

It's pretty hard to build pitching depth through a draft in 2 years....

In the last 2 years Bloom has already vastly improved their cost controlled pitching simply by trading for Pivetta and picking Whitlock. Combine them with Houck and hopefully Seabold and the Sox pitching depth looks a ton better than two years ago, especially if they keep Erod.

Ottavino, Perez, and Richards were never supposed to be real answers to pitching depth, they were low risk potentially high upside moves that were just stopgaps.

The Sox pitching is still ranked in the bottom half of mlb, at 16th place in ERA. Sox wasted over $20M on Richards, Perez, and Ottavino, that could have been used to secure quality bullpen depth.

Re trades, Sox traded the best RF in baseball and didn't get back any pitching. Re draft, Bloom didn't draft any pitcher with Sox early picks in both years. Instead he drafted a second middle infielder after drafting a middle infielder with 1st pick in both years, rather than taking the best pitching prospect. The fact is no pitcher drafted by Bloom in 2 years is even ranked as a top 10 soxprospect, let alone a top 100 minor league prospect by BA.

Championship teams are built on pitching depth. Bloom has yet to prove he can build pitching depth in Sox organization.

 

[BaseballJones]

The Sox pitching is still ranked in the bottom half of mlb, at 16th place in ERA. Sox wasted over $20M on Richards, Perez, and Ottavino, that could have been used to secure quality bullpen depth.

Re trades, Sox traded the best RF in baseball and didn't get back any pitching. Re draft, Bloom didn't draft any pitcher with Sox early picks in both years. Instead he drafted a second middle infielder after drafting a middle infielder with 1st pick in both years, rather than taking the best pitching prospect. The fact is no pitcher drafted by Bloom in 2 years is even ranked as a top 10 soxprospect, let alone a top 100 minor league prospect by BA.

Championship teams are built on pitching depth. Bloom has yet to prove he can build pitching depth in Sox organization.

When Bloom took over (2020), Chris Sale was going through TJ surgery. Eduardo Rodriguez missed the year due to Covid. The payroll was maxed out. Under his watch, the Sox added Ottavino (who actually was very helpful for them this year), Robles (also very helpful for them), Whitlock (unreal for them), Pivetta (who was fantastic for the Sox, especially in the playoffs), and Seabold (nice prospect). That's adding quality pitching depth. Do they still have a ways to go? Yes, obviously. Has Bloom helped the pitching staff? Yes, obviously.

 

[lexrageorge]

You're bringing up the Dodgers and Astros who took years and years to have the system they enjoy now. Dombrowski came in and got rid of most of the farm system so it will take time to build it to the level of those teams plus the Yankees. How can you say Bloom has failed in the draft in 2 years? Do you expect drafted prospects to go from HS or college to the major leagues in 2 years? Come on. You mention Ottavino who was awesome for them in the first 2/3 of the season. It's not like Bloom was going to waive a magic wand and build the farm system to top 5 in the league. The early returns on players he drafted such as Nick Yorke, Blaze Jordan, and Marcelo Mayer are very encouraging. Bello and Seabold are two very good pitching prospects. Josh Winckowski made major strides this year.

Always helpful to look back at those prospects that Dombrowski traded:

Logan Allen (Kimbrel): ERA+ of 70 for the Indians in 2021. Is still only 24, but has yet to show anything at the major league level.

Carlos Asuaje (Kimbrel): Last major league at bat in 2018. Currently in Dodgers AAA affiliate.

Javy Guerra (Kimbrel): 25 career major league innings for the Padres. Shown nothing yet and is 26.

Manuel Margot (Kimbrel): Was my Portland binkie for a while. Regular outfielder for the Rays this past season, although a career OPS of 0.694 and has been consistently close nearly every season.

Jonathan Aro: Out of baseball.

Anderson Espinoza (Pomeranz): Actually started 20 games for the Padres minor league system this past year, with meh results. Has yet to throw a major league inning and will soon turn 24.

Victor Diaz (Sale): Out of baseball

Luis Basabe (Sale): 14 at bats in the major leagues. Looks to be a career minor leaguer at this point.

Michael Kopech (Sale): Was a good bullpen piece for the White Sox this season, but we are still talking 83 career innings at the major league level. Probably the one with the most potential among this entire group.

Juan Moncada (Sale): Has become an everyday infielder, but I doubt anyone would take him over Bogaerts or Devers.

Mauricio Dubon (Thornburgh): Has become a useful utility player for the Giants. Josh Pennington and Yeison Coca have yet to make the majors.

Santiago Espinal (Pearce): Has become a role player for the Blue Jays.

Jalen Beeks (Eovaldi): Had one good year for the Rays (2019), hasn't pitched much since due to injury.

Ty Buttrey (Kinsler): Hasn't pitched since 2020 and will be 30 soon.

Williams Jerez (Kinsler): Minor leaguer at age 30

 

[tims4wins]

Always helpful to look back at those prospects that Dombrowski traded:

Logan Allen (Kimbrel): ERA+ of 70 for the Indians in 2021. Is still only 24, but has yet to show anything at the major league level.

Carlos Asuaje (Kimbrel): Last major league at bat in 2018. Currently in Dodgers AAA affiliate.

Javy Guerra (Kimbrel): 25 career major league innings for the Padres. Shown nothing yet and is 26.

Manuel Margot (Kimbrel): Was my Portland binkie for a while. Regular outfielder for the Rays this past season, although a career OPS of 0.694 and has been consistently close nearly every season.

Jonathan Aro: Out of baseball.

Anderson Espinoza (Pomeranz): Actually started 20 games for the Padres minor league system this past year, with meh results. Has yet to throw a major league inning and will soon turn 24.

Victor Diaz (Sale): Out of baseball

Luis Basabe (Sale): 14 at bats in the major leagues. Looks to be a career minor leaguer at this point.

Michael Kopech (Sale): Was a good bullpen piece for the White Sox this season, but we are still talking 83 career innings at the major league level. Probably the one with the most potential among this entire group.

Juan Moncada (Sale): Has become an everyday infielder, but I doubt anyone would take him over Bogaerts or Devers.

Mauricio Dubon (Thornburgh): Has become a useful utility player for the Giants. Josh Pennington and Yeison Coca have yet to make the majors.

Santiago Espinal (Pearce): Has become a role player for the Blue Jays.

Jalen Beeks (Eovaldi): Had one good year for the Rays (2019), hasn't pitched much since due to injury.

Ty Buttrey (Kinsler): Hasn't pitched since 2020 and will be 30 soon.

Williams Jerez (Kinsler): Minor leaguer at age 30

Thanks, great post. Amazing the amount of WAR they’ve received vs traded in these deals (I assume). DD absolutely killed it with those trades.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Always helpful to look back at those prospects that Dombrowski traded:

Logan Allen (Kimbrel): ERA+ of 70 for the Indians in 2021. Is still only 24, but has yet to show anything at the major league level.

Carlos Asuaje (Kimbrel): Last major league at bat in 2018. Currently in Dodgers AAA affiliate.

Javy Guerra (Kimbrel): 25 career major league innings for the Padres. Shown nothing yet and is 26.

Manuel Margot (Kimbrel): Was my Portland binkie for a while. Regular outfielder for the Rays this past season, although a career OPS of 0.694 and has been consistently close nearly every season.

Jonathan Aro: Out of baseball.

Anderson Espinoza (Pomeranz): Actually started 20 games for the Padres minor league system this past year, with meh results. Has yet to throw a major league inning and will soon turn 24.

Victor Diaz (Sale): Out of baseball

Luis Basabe (Sale): 14 at bats in the major leagues. Looks to be a career minor leaguer at this point.

Michael Kopech (Sale): Was a good bullpen piece for the White Sox this season, but we are still talking 83 career innings at the major league level. Probably the one with the most potential among this entire group.

Juan Moncada (Sale): Has become an everyday infielder, but I doubt anyone would take him over Bogaerts or Devers.

Mauricio Dubon (Thornburgh): Has become a useful utility player for the Giants. Josh Pennington and Yeison Coca have yet to make the majors.

Santiago Espinal (Pearce): Has become a role player for the Blue Jays.

Jalen Beeks (Eovaldi): Had one good year for the Rays (2019), hasn't pitched much since due to injury.

Ty Buttrey (Kinsler): Hasn't pitched since 2020 and will be 30 soon.

Williams Jerez (Kinsler): Minor leaguer at age 30

Yes, the majority did not pan out but you still have to replace the talent.

 

[Scoops Bolling]

The Sox pitching is still ranked in the bottom half of mlb, at 16th place in ERA. Sox wasted over $20M on Richards, Perez, and Ottavino, that could have been used to secure quality bullpen depth.

Re trades, Sox traded the best RF in baseball and didn't get back any pitching. Re draft, Bloom didn't draft any pitcher with Sox early picks in both years. Instead he drafted a second middle infielder after drafting a middle infielder with 1st pick in both years, rather than taking the best pitching prospect. The fact is no pitcher drafted by Bloom in 2 years is even ranked as a top 10 soxprospect, let alone a top 100 minor league prospect by BA.

Championship teams are built on pitching depth. Bloom has yet to prove he can build pitching depth in Sox organization.

This is one of the more asinine posts I've seen on SoSH recently. Bloom inherited a farm system that was one of the absolute worst in Major League Baseball. Unsurprisingly, his draft strategy has revolved around an emphasis on the type of prospect that tends to have the best combination of upside and success rate (high school position prospects) while concurrently trying to build depth by spreading bonus money where possible.

Unsurprisingly given his background, he has also emulated the Rays and Dodgers by acquiring a high volume of arms from other organizations, as pitching development tends to be a numbers game in concert with a good development system. Bloom has wisely avoided the riskiest player type in the draft, prep pitchers, and has seemingly opted for hitters over pitchers where they're close; again, for anyone familiar with the hit rate on prospects, and their expected value, this is simply playing the numbers because hitters tend to be more valuable than pitchers ceteris paribus.

As a final point, championship teams in the modern era are almost always built around a core of homegrown hitting, not pitching. The Astros acquired most of their high-end pitching by trade, while they drafted most of their hitters. The Dodgers are built around a core of homegrown hitting that has given them the flexibility to acquire by trade and free agency a number of pitchers, although they're pitching development system is pretty great too at this point. The Padres are trying to do the same thing. The Yankees are in a similar boat. The Cubs' success was built around their core of young hitters.

Trying to build through developing a pitching staff is a fool's errand, particularly if you're trying to do it simply through the draft. Pitching prospects get hurt and flame out at a much higher rate than hitters, again, particularly if you are talking taking them straight in the draft. This doesn't mean you never draft a pitcher; if your scouts say a guy is the guy then you grab them. But if they're close? You take the hitter.

 

[scottyno]

The Sox pitching is still ranked in the bottom half of mlb, at 16th place in ERA. Sox wasted over $20M on Richards, Perez, and Ottavino, that could have been used to secure quality bullpen depth.

Come on really, you can't use MLB wide era when half the teams have to bat a pitcher....

Especially when the Sox play in a hitters park. They were 5th in the AL in era+

And the guys you mentioned weren't wastes, yeah they weren't as good as they hoped but they weren't total disasters. Per fangraphs they generated 16-17m in value, so yeah not quite what they hoped, but not terrible. In fact having a healthy Richards would have helped a ton in the ALCS (well not really because he couldn't bat, but the bullpen would have been helped)

 

[wiltonctsoxfan]

When Bloom took over (2020), Chris Sale was going through TJ surgery. Eduardo Rodriguez missed the year due to Covid. The payroll was maxed out. Under his watch, the Sox added Ottavino (who actually was very helpful for them this year), Robles (also very helpful for them), Whitlock (unreal for them), Pivetta (who was fantastic for the Sox, especially in the playoffs), and Seabold (nice prospect). That's adding quality pitching depth. Do they still have a ways to go? Yes, obviously. Has Bloom helped the pitching staff? Yes, obviously.

So which one of these wonderful pitching acquisitions will win even just 14 games or earn 20 saves next year??? None of the pitchers you reference.

Long before Bloom, the Red Sox have failed to draft and develop pitching. None of the pitchers drafted by Bloom over 2 years rank as Sox top 10 prospect let alone top 100 minor league prospect. Meanwhile the Dodgers continued to draft 18 of 20 picks as pitchers this year. Possibly that's how they continue to develop pitching depth!

 

[E5 Yaz]

So which one of these wonderful pitching acquisitions will win even just 14 games or earn 20 saves next year??? None of the pitchers you reference.

"Wins" and "saves" have evolved into two of the least important stats in terms of measuring a pitcher's value. That you expect Bloom to snap his fingers and build depth in two seasons is, to be charitable, naive.

 

[BaseballJones]

So which one of these wonderful pitching acquisitions will win even just 14 games or earn 20 saves next year??? None of the pitchers you reference.

If that's how you think acquired pitching depth is measured, no wonder you're having issues with all this.

Long before Bloom, the Red Sox have failed to draft and develop pitching. None of the pitchers drafted by Bloom over 2 years rank as Sox top 10 prospect let alone top 100 minor league prospect. Meanwhile the Dodgers continued to draft 18 of 20 picks as pitchers this year. Possibly that's how they continue to develop pitching depth!

Yes the Dodgers do a great job with that. And for all that, they've won ONE World Series since 1988. During this incredible run of theirs (2013-present), the Red Sox have won two WS titles to LA's one. They've been to just one more league championship series than the Red Sox.

I'd still say they're doing better than Boston - they've drafted well and they've had insane payrolls. They're a great organization. But Boston has been phenomenal over the same stretch.

From 2013-present, the Red Sox:

- Have won the division (the best division in baseball) 4 times.
- Have won 90+ games five times.
- Have been to 3 league championship series.
- Have been to, and won, 2 World Series.

That's an incredible performance over a 9-year stretch. I don't know how as a fan you can complain about that.

 

[wiltonctsoxfan]

This is one of the more asinine posts I've seen on SoSH recently. Bloom inherited a farm system that was one of the absolute worst in Major League Baseball. Unsurprisingly, his draft strategy has revolved around an emphasis on the type of prospect that tends to have the best combination of upside and success rate (high school position prospects) while concurrently trying to build depth by spreading bonus money where possible.

Unsurprisingly given his background, he has also emulated the Rays and Dodgers by acquiring a high volume of arms from other organizations, as pitching development tends to be a numbers game in concert with a good development system. Bloom has wisely avoided the riskiest player type in the draft, prep pitchers, and has seemingly opted for hitters over pitchers where they're close; again, for anyone familiar with the hit rate on prospects, and their expected value, this is simply playing the numbers because hitters tend to be more valuable than pitchers ceteris paribus.

As a final point, championship teams in the modern era are almost always built around a core of homegrown hitting, not pitching. The Astros acquired most of their high-end pitching by trade, while they drafted most of their hitters. The Dodgers are built around a core of homegrown hitting that has given them the flexibility to acquire by trade and free agency a number of pitchers, although they're pitching development system is pretty great too at this point. The Padres are trying to do the same thing. The Yankees are in a similar boat. The Cubs' success was built around their core of young hitters.

Trying to build through developing a pitching staff is a fool's errand, particularly if you're trying to do it simply through the draft. Pitching prospects get hurt and flame out at a much higher rate than hitters, again, particularly if you are talking taking them straight in the draft. This doesn't mean you never draft a pitcher; if your scouts say a guy is the guy then you grab them. But if they're close? You take the hitter.

Every mlb scout and analyst would disagree with you., Everyone knows pitching dominates baseball. Teams who have created championship teams do it through developing young cost controllable pitching. The Dodgers drafted 16 of 18 pitchers this year. The Red Sox of 20th century prove the futility of trying to hit your way to win a championship.

Now more than ever, mlb teams are locking up their talented young pitching to l-term deals, thus making FA or trades for pitching very difficult. FAs and trades have become more of a crap shoot than drafting and developing cost controllable pitching staff.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Will be fascinating to see how they approach next years pitching staff, esp. the bullpen. The Rays being able to identify and acquire freely available guys like McHugh and Kittredge has been key to their success, and Bloom certainly did more than ok with Whitlock and Pivetta. Need to avoid the contracts of guys like Ottavino, Richards, Perez, etc but easier said than done.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Every mlb scout and analyst would disagree with you.,

Link?

 

[scottyno]

So which one of these wonderful pitching acquisitions will win even just 14 games or earn 20 saves next year??? None of the pitchers you reference.

Long before Bloom, the Red Sox have failed to draft and develop pitching. None of the pitchers drafted by Bloom over 2 years rank as Sox top 10 prospect let alone top 100 minor league prospect. Meanwhile the Dodgers continued to draft 18 of 20 picks as pitchers this year. Possibly that's how they continue to develop pitching depth!

Whitlock would easily have 20 saves next year if they made him a 1 inning closer, but I'm sure they realize that's not the best way to maximize his value.

I wouldn't be shocked at all if either Whitlock or Pivetta won 14 games next year, but in part because as others have mentioned pitcher wins are a pretty dumb stat.

 

[scottyno]

Every mlb scout and analyst would disagree with you., Everyone knows pitching dominates baseball. Teams who have created championship teams do it through developing young cost controllable pitching. The Dodgers drafted 16 of 18 pitchers this year. The Red Sox of 20th century prove the futility of trying to hit your way to win a championship.

Other than winning 4 rings and making it to 7 ALCS this century you mean? As you said the Sox of the 21st century have not developed much young cost controlled pitching. They have however developed a shit ton of young cost controlled position players, which are just as valuable.

 

[ngruz25]

I have a hard time seeing Schwarber return on any sort of friendly deal. He's turning 29 and is coming off a career year. I'm sure he views this as his chance at his One Big Contract. He's probably hoping for 4+ years.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

Every mlb scout and analyst would disagree with you., Everyone knows pitching dominates baseball. Teams who have created championship teams do it through developing young cost controllable pitching. The Dodgers drafted 16 of 18 pitchers this year. The Red Sox of 20th century prove the futility of trying to hit your way to win a championship.

Now more than ever, mlb teams are locking up their talented young pitching to l-term deals, thus making FA or trades for pitching very difficult. FAs and trades have become more of a crap shoot than drafting and developing cost controllable pitching staff.

Your premise is belied by the fact that the greatest Red Sox team of all time, the 2018 team, had very little in the way of “homegrown” pitching at all.

There are a number of ways to win a championship, but it’s not crazy to me to think that teams should focus on developing hitters because they are more predictable, and acquiring pitchers only after they’ve shown they can be MLB caliber using other resources, namely surplus prospects in other areas and/or cash.

 

[wiltonctsoxfan]

Link?
[/QUOTE
I'd recommend you subscribe to Baseball America. Watch mlbnetwork. Anyone who played little league baseball knows pitching dominates baseball.

I also love the Red Sox and followed them passionately since my first game at Fenway in 1964. I'm glad they over achieved this year. I think Bloom has made some good moves such as signing Kiki and Renfore, as well as trading for Pivetta.

However, as a long time fan, I'm keenly aware the Red Sox have failed to draft and develop young cost controlled pitching. Although Bloom has made strides on lineup, I don't believe he has properly focused on securing quality pitching in draft, FA or trades. I don't see Red Sox winning without significant improvement to their pitching staff.

You are welcome to a different opinion.

 

[BaseballJones]

Pitching is obviously hugely important. But that doesn't mean that the best way to win is to draft tons of pitching. You can get quality pitching any number of ways.

And your quote, "I don't see the Red Sox winning without significant improvement to their pitching staff"... I think we all agree it should be improved. But that can be done through drafting, trading, picking up free agents, etc. I mean, the Dodgers' key acquisition this year was MAX SCHERZER, who they obviously did not draft. Houston won a World Series a few years ago with their key pitcher being Justin Verlander, who they didn't draft either. Boston won a WS with their key pitchers being Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi, neither of whom were drafted by the Sox.

 

[Archer1979]

Link?

To every scout and analyst?? Yeah. His statement was like waving a red blanket in front of a bull.

Lost in this is that Bloom was already handicapped in the 2020 draft having lost their second round pick (out of five).

Just curious as to what Bloom could have done to build up the farm more than he has already. System was ranked 25th one year ago.

https://www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-farm-system-analysis-2020

It's now ranked 9th (although a different publication).

https://bloggingtheredsox.com/2021/08/16/red-sox-have-no-9-farm-system-in-baseball-per-baseball-america/

These things take time, and given that this was considered a rebuilding year, I'd have to say that most of us are pleased with the overall results so far.

 

[scottyno]

Yeah when the top 2 aces of the 2004 2007 and 2018 Sox teams all came without being homegrown it's kind of hard to argue you need homegrown pitching to win.

And the closest thing to a homegrown pitcher on the 2004 Sox at all was Lenny Dinardo unless I'm missing someone.