Red Sox extend Devers—11 years, $332 million

chrisfont9

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I know this is off-topic, but it's worth mentioning as it reveals a bit about Devers's mindset and maturity:

Jen McCaffrey, The Athletic:
Cool. He seems like a well-meaning and hard-working guy which is what you want in a franchise cornerstone. Whether it's language skills or improved defense, that sort of humility and accountability is a great sign. It's why I love Jaylen Brown, whatever he says or tweets about the guy is clearly working hard to get better and fix the things we Cs fans are complaining about online. Contrast to Pablo Sandoval, for example, although it seems like more and more elite athletes have this sort of high professionalism built into them these days.
 

Rovin Romine

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He missed 20 games last year, six in 2021, three in 2020, six in 2019. Last year's injury was to his hamstring. He had that ugly stuff in the 2021 playoffs but otherwise he's been highly durable. Are you worried that he'll strain a lat or something?
Raffy plays through a lot of injuries. He limped his way along for a good chunk of 2022. I don't know how predictive that is, and he's quite good even while he's injured, but recurring injury (hamstrings) is a rational thing to consider when assessing what we're going to get from him - say at age 30. https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/player/188449/tranx/

Again, going by wRC+, if he doesn't get injured and his August is in line with the rest of his season, he's top 5 in baseball last year. If you want to go by OPS, he was #5 in the AL with August included, at an age where Ortiz hadn't quite figured it out yet.
I think we're talking in circles here. Nobody is saying he didn't have a good 2023. There are actually several metrics that put him in a number 5 or 6 spot in the AL. If we were looking at some kind of "raw talent level," adjusting for the park (e.g., Adjusted OPS+) drops him significantly. . .but he does get to play at Fenway and so those extra doubles absolutely count. :)

The issue is whether this is a high water mark, or a step on the path to being an even more productive player.

But even if he gives us a 2021 campaign, we'll have something more like a top 10 AL offensive player. Which is nothing to sneeze at.
 

Soxfan in Fla

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I've been quiet on this front because I'm ambivalent to this process. I get not wanting to give out long term contracts, and I sympathize with those who hate seeing "our guys" leave. My heart says I'm glad Raffy is potentially here for the rest of his career, but my head and my gut says there is a going to be a lot of dead weight at the end of this contract. I also can't wait for everyone who has complained about how cheap the FO is bemoaning this deal as soon as it suits them.

Way to go, Chaim!
He will be 38 at the end of the deal. As long as he doesn’t fall off a Cliff early the chances are decent that the dead money at the end will be minimal.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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He will be 38 at the end of the deal. As long as he doesn’t fall off a Cliff early the chances are decent that the dead money at the end will be minimal.
Better than that, he's going to be 36 at the end of the deal (37 only if they manage to make the World Series that season).
 

brandonchristensen

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Was there a benefit to not having a deal in place before the arbitration amount was set? Or just random timing?
 

brandonchristensen

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I think there is a reference up thread that the Sox could use the $17.5M value next year for luxury tax purposes if they wanted to, so possibly yes.
I think that was when it was announced that the extension hit in 2024. Hadn’t seen anything about that since.
 

nvalvo

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Part of the problem here is that the new CBA language hasn't been released, so none of us actually know to that level of detail what the rules are.
 

ehaz

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Was there a benefit to not having a deal in place before the arbitration amount was set? Or just random timing?
I think there is a reference up thread that the Sox could use the $17.5M value next year for luxury tax purposes if they wanted to, so possibly yes.
I think that was when it was announced that the extension hit in 2024. Hadn’t seen anything about that since.
My eyes glazed over reading but I think this is the applicable section of the CBA for this:

59738
 

RedOctober3829

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Jared Carrabis' podcast on the Devers signing was interesting. He said he got a text the morning the Devers news broke saying that the front office was now being super aggressive in negotiations due to the fan backlash. He also said that the report from Heyman saying the two sides were "galaxies apart" was in fact true. His source told him the Red Sox upped their offer by $100 million overnight.

To me, this is another reaction from the front office because of outside influences. Don't get me wrong I am happy Devers is signed, but the idea that this was always the plan to overwhelm Devers with a huge offer to avoid him going to the market is seemingly not the case.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Jared Carrabis' podcast on the Devers signing was interesting. He said he got a text the morning the Devers news broke saying that the front office was now being super aggressive in negotiations due to the fan backlash. He also said that the report from Heyman saying the two sides were "galaxies apart" was in fact true. His source told him the Red Sox upped their offer by $100 million overnight.

To me, this is another reaction from the front office because of outside influences. Don't get me wrong I am happy Devers is signed, but the idea that this was always the plan to overwhelm Devers with a huge offer to avoid him going to the market is seemingly not the case.
We should boo John Henry in public more often.
 

Niastri

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One benefit for Boston is that when Devers was 20 he was in the Majors to stay for dirt cheap and Peña was slugging .309 in Low A. This year in the Majors his OBP was .289.
Not to mention Devers was a starter on the best Red Sox team ever at 21 years old.

As for the deal, 34 WAR seems to be break even, in Devers last 3 full seasons, he averaged 4.43 bWAR per year. If he averages that amount in his age 26-33 years, the remaining years will be free.

It is highly likely the contract is a bargain even if Devers' 26-30 seasons aren't better than his 22-25 seasons.
 

joe dokes

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Jared Carrabis' podcast on the Devers signing was interesting. He said he got a text the morning the Devers news broke saying that the front office was now being super aggressive in negotiations due to the fan backlash. He also said that the report from Heyman saying the two sides were "galaxies apart" was in fact true. His source told him the Red Sox upped their offer by $100 million overnight.

To me, this is another reaction from the front office because of outside influences. Don't get me wrong I am happy Devers is signed, but the idea that this was always the plan to overwhelm Devers with a huge offer to avoid him going to the market is seemingly not the case.
In order for this to be true, it would also have to be true that the Red Sox were surprised by whatever "fan backlash" (whatever that term even means) they were getting, presumably from X leaving and Devers not immediately signing a new deal. Do you really think that's true? I don't.
 

snowmanny

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I think it could be true that ownership took over and said we have to do this. The Judge deal was closed by ownership, it is not that weird. I'm not convinced it was due to "fan backlash" per se, but I think what fans were seeing is something ownership might have seen: there did not seem to be a viable alternative to signing Devers, and the only way to sign him was a contract of 10+/300+. And until Devers is signed (or traded) it would be nearly impossible to construct the team moving forward because you'd have no idea of your budget or your needs.

But this is the ownership group that essentially apologized for not re-signing Damon, that pushed for the Crawford signing after a few so-so years, that intimated they weren't doing long-term deals for pitchers then gave out the (then) biggest pitcher contract ever when things were going south...they are definitely not past being reactive. And they've delivered big contracts out of the blue like Price, Matsuzaka, Castillo, Moncada.

I think Henry just said finish this now. And he was right to do so.
 

LogansDad

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Is Carrabis really an "insider" who would have any real knowledge or contacts? I get that he is a Draft Kings guy, so he's probably rich off other people's misfortune, and has some legit other stuff (whatever Like a Pro on NESN 360 is, for instance), but his posts read like a fan who wants to pretend he knows more stuff and has more contacts than he really does to me.
 

joe dokes

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I think it could be true that ownership took over and said we have to do this. The Judge deal was closed by ownership, it is not that weird. I'm not convinced it was due to "fan backlash" per se, but I think what fans were seeing is something ownership might have seen: there did not seem to be a viable alternative to signing Devers, and the only way to sign him was a contract of 10+/300+. And until Devers is signed (or traded) it would be nearly impossible to construct the team moving forward because you'd have no idea of your budget or your needs.

But this is the ownership group that essentially apologized for not re-signing Damon, that pushed for the Crawford signing after a few so-so years, that intimated they weren't doing long-term deals for pitchers then gave out the (then) biggest pitcher contract ever when things were going south...they are definitely not past being reactive. And they've delivered big contracts out of the blue like Price, Matsuzaka, Castillo, Moncada.

I think Henry just said finish this now.
I think whatever discussions that led to the agreement that avoided arbitration were the real catalyst. Presumably, given the rough service time-related guardrails that accompany most arb offers, ownership wasn;t involved there. But I find it hard to believe that "what it might take to make this permanent" didn't not come up between Devers's people and the Sox's. From there, your "Henry said finish it now" makes a lot of sense.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I guess the implication is that Bloom was low-balling and Henry had to step in???? Why would still be employed by Henry if this was true?
 

JCizzle

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Is Carrabis really an "insider" who would have any real knowledge or contacts? I get that he is a Draft Kings guy, so he's probably rich off other people's misfortune, and has some legit other stuff (whatever Like a Pro on NESN 360 is, for instance), but his posts read like a fan who wants to pretend he knows more stuff and has more contacts than he really does to me.
He’s basically the Red Sox ambassador for a large chunk of Sox fans in their 20s and 30s (someone in power thought enough of his reach to give him a spot in the World Series parade). For that reason, I think he developed decent contacts with a number of players and others. I think he’s pretty close with as many people in the organization as most legit reporters, it’s just not his job to act like them. He’s not generally my cup of tea personally, but he’s more than a random dude.
 

LogansDad

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He’s basically the Red Sox ambassador for a large chunk of Sox fans in their 20s and 30s (someone in power thought enough of his reach to give him a spot in the World Series parade). For that reason, I think he developed decent contacts with a number of players and others. I think he’s pretty close with as many people in the organization as most legit reporters, it’s just not his job to act like them.
Gotcha, thanks. I guess this is a new "I'm old" moment for me.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Ultimately, they got the deal done and kept a good player under contract for a long term. I’m far less concerned about the why, just glad it’s done and that the team has removed a distraction while locking up a marquee young player.
 

RedOctober3829

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In order for this to be true, it would also have to be true that the Red Sox were surprised by whatever "fan backlash" (whatever that term even means) they were getting, presumably from X leaving and Devers not immediately signing a new deal. Do you really think that's true? I don't.
Don't underestimate the tone deafness of this ownership group. It's been proven they pivot from what they were currently doing based on outside influence. Carl Crawford, Pablo Sandoval, David Price, etc.
 

bosockboy

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Don't underestimate the tone deafness of this ownership group. It's been proven they pivot from what they were currently doing based on outside influence. Carl Crawford, Pablo Sandoval, David Price, etc.
NESN revenues move their needle. A lame duck Raffy season would’ve really hit them hard.
 

8slim

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In order for this to be true, it would also have to be true that the Red Sox were surprised by whatever "fan backlash" (whatever that term even means) they were getting, presumably from X leaving and Devers not immediately signing a new deal. Do you really think that's true? I don't.
I do. These guys tend to live in a bubble. I don't think they were at all prepared for the venom that was released when X left. Hell, *I* was surprised by it. I'm sure they figured people would be upset, but not to the degree that they were.

And hopefully they learned from the experience with X that in this market you can't drag your feet, and play the lowball game for months on end. Get to your highest offer quickly, before either the player gets resentful, or someone else swoops in to dramatically top you.
 

burstnbloom

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He’s basically the Red Sox ambassador for a large chunk of Sox fans in their 20s and 30s (someone in power thought enough of his reach to give him a spot in the World Series parade). For that reason, I think he developed decent contacts with a number of players and others. I think he’s pretty close with as many people in the organization as most legit reporters, it’s just not his job to act like them. He’s not generally my cup of tea personally, but he’s more than a random dude.
Sam Kennedy has also been a long time ally of his and he's pretty tight with Cora and a lot of the guys on the team. He doesn't describe himself as a reporter and he's said publicly its better for him to continue to be who he is rather than try to be a news breaking journalist, but he's definitely connected.
 

moondog80

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I do. These guys tend to live in a bubble. I don't think they were at all prepared for the venom that was released when X left. Hell, *I* was surprised by it. I'm sure they figured people would be upset, but not to the degree that they were.

And hopefully they learned from the experience with X that in this market you can't drag your feet, and play the lowball game for months on end. Get to your highest offer quickly, before either the player gets resentful, or someone else swoops in to dramatically top you.
In the immediate period after X leaving, I can believe they were surprised. It's tougher for me to believe that on January 2, they were surprised by the fan reaction at Fenway.

So I don't know. Henry giving the order to get it done and get it done soon does fit the timeline. But letting Juan Segura go to Miami on such a small deal made no sense at the time, and that *could* be explained by them feeling this was very likely to get done and Devers' '23 tax number would be around 30 mil.
 

8slim

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In the immediate period after X leaving, I can believe they were surprised. It's tougher for me to believe that on January 2, they were surprised by the fan reaction at Fenway.

So I don't know. Henry giving the order to get it done and get it done soon does fit the timeline. But letting Juan Segura go to Miami on such a small deal made no sense at the time, and that *could* be explained by them feeling this was very likely to get done and Devers' '23 tax number would be around 30 mil.
Who knows? Henry is a weird dude. Being booed was probably pretty jarring for him. I suspect the urgency came from a mix of factors, including ticket purchase softness over the holidays.
 

chrisfont9

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Occam's razor -- It seems far more likely and natural that the Sox made a change in strategy because, like everyone else, they were a bit surprised by the salary/years explosion in free agent contracts and had to adjust to the new market. I like Carrabis' podcasts, they're entertaining, but the idea that Henry added $100m onto their offer because he had hurt feelings is WEEI nonsense. The offseason narratives are so tiresome. It's 99% economics, and it's in an unusual state of flux right now.
 

Rovin Romine

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Occam's razor -- It seems far more likely and natural that the Sox made a change in strategy because, like everyone else, they were a bit surprised by the salary/years explosion in free agent contracts and had to adjust to the new market. I like Carrabis' podcasts, they're entertaining, but the idea that Henry added $100m onto their offer because he had hurt feelings is WEEI nonsense. The offseason narratives are so tiresome. It's 99% economics, and it's in an unusual state of flux right now.
Yep.

Obviously public perception/opinion plays some role in decision-making - the team isn't going to play Trevor Bauer, even if he offers to suit up for free.

But in suggesting that if you shout at Herny, you get the results you want, isn't Carrabis just setting Henry up for a bunch crappy/trolling behavior directed his way?

And if it were true, what happens when Henry is heckled into trading Devers by a bunch of Yankee's fans?
 

Benj4ever

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Might want to get that sarcasm meter checked.

Edit to add content:

I've gotten more excited about this over the last couple hours. I don't think I realized how draining it was for me to watch Xander down the stretch knowing he wasn't going to be coming back (and I am among those who think the team made the right call on him). Knowing I will get to watch a homegrown superstar stick through his prime and beyond for the Red Sox is awesome, and makes me really happy. The fact that is a guy who actually has potential to get better?? Pinch me.
I agree 100%. Devers is a franchise cornerstone. Signing him long term is a great move for the team and an even better move for the fan base.

I can see where the post has the potential to be sarcastic, but I'm not familiar enough with the poster to know whether or not to take it seriously.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Occam's razor -- It seems far more likely and natural that the Sox made a change in strategy because, like everyone else, they were a bit surprised by the salary/years explosion in free agent contracts and had to adjust to the new market. I like Carrabis' podcasts, they're entertaining, but the idea that Henry added $100m onto their offer because he had hurt feelings is WEEI nonsense. The offseason narratives are so tiresome. It's 99% economics, and it's in an unusual state of flux right now.
I wouldn't be surprised if the booing helped a little. It seems like the kind of thing that maybe puts a thumb on a scale that's already close to balanced. That adds a year or two or adds a few million per year. I agree it doesn't make a valuation go up 50 percent. Nor does it make a hyper careful guy do a precipitous thing.

If the booing mattered, I don't think it has anything to do with hurt feelings. I think we all understand that Henry is a good businessman. Booing is a piece of information. Just like the big signings this year were information. He very well may have put the booing in the supercomputer and it spit out the idea that JMOH and others on their board like to float -- which is that some of the value of a sports franchise is good will and that can be a fickle thing. Maybe the booing helped him understand how close to critical mass things might be coming. Which he processed and balanced against everything else.
 

geoflin

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I've been thinking about it today - what do you all think this board's and the local fans' attitude and response towards the Sox front office would have been had the Sox signed Devers before, rather than after, X went to SD. I think fans would have been much more understanding given the amount they agreed to pay Devers. Signing both would be a huge outlay. Yet the end result for the team is the same.
 
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streeter88

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I honestly think this front office is not very good at messaging. They started the off-season by saying they were going to pick up 7-9 players and resigning X was a priority. And then the optics after they lost X were just really bad. Bloom looking just beaten in San Diego. That, combined with the flailing throughout the last season with both X and Raffi, made it quite easy to believe that the Sox would end up with neither player.

I am still not a Bloomophile. I don’t like the penny-pinching, scrapheap, Tampa North, let all the fan favorites go kind of vibe the current front office is giving off, and I think we’re headed for our 4th uncompetitive season out of 5. Too many holes in the lineup, too many things need to go right with the pitching staff.

But I think you’re right. If they’d signed Devers first it would have been better. The fan base just wants to see exciting players and competitive results and be able to wear their favorites’ jerseys for awhile without fear.
 

chawson

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I am still not a Bloomophile. I don’t like the penny-pinching, scrapheap, Tampa North, let all the fan favorites go kind of vibe the current front office is giving off, and I think we’re headed for our 4th uncompetitive season out of 5. Too many holes in the lineup, too many things need to go right with the pitching staff.
How many would you consider fan favorites? I think Betts and Bogaerts are firmly in this camp, but I’m personally not sure about anyone else.

I think the sting about Mookie has led to a tendency to overstate fondness for other players after they go. Not saying you’re doing that, but it’s become a ready framework to view Bloom’s supposedly “radical philosophy” or whatever. To me it doesn’t seem much different from letting Ellsbury, Youkilis or Saltalamacchia walk. If we’re being honest, do people really want to keep Christian Vázquez around for the next three years?
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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I honestly think this front office is not very good at messaging. They started the off-season by saying they were going to pick up 7-9 players and resigning X was a priority. And then the optics after they lost X were just really bad. Bloom looking just beaten in San Diego. That, combined with the flailing throughout the last season with both X and Raffi, made it quite easy to believe that the Sox would end up with neither player.

I am still not a Bloomophile. I don’t like the penny-pinching, scrapheap, Tampa North, let all the fan favorites go kind of vibe the current front office is giving off, and I think we’re headed for our 4th uncompetitive season out of 5. Too many holes in the lineup, too many things need to go right with the pitching staff.

But I think you’re right. If they’d signed Devers first it would have been better. The fan base just wants to see exciting players and competitive results and be able to wear their favorites’ jerseys for awhile without fear.
This is one of the things I really liked about Dombrowski. At the beginning of the offseason he would publicly outline what he felt they needed, and then go out and execute. Don't get me wrong, the guy has left more dead money around the league than anyone, but his messaging was consistent with his actions. Also, 2018.
 

streeter88

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How many would you consider fan favorites? I think Betts and Bogaerts are firmly in this camp, but I’m personally not sure about anyone else.

I think the sting about Mookie has led to a tendency to overstate fondness for other players after they go. Not saying you’re doing that, but it’s become a ready framework to view Bloom’s supposedly “radical philosophy” or whatever. To me it doesn’t seem much different from letting Ellsbury, Youkilis or Saltalamacchia walk. If we’re being honest, do people really want to keep Christian Vázquez around for the next three years?
I would have put the entire 2018 OF, X, Renfroe and Schwarber in that camp. Obviously the latter 2 weren’t there very long and Beni’s subsequent results vindicated that decision, but still there is a non-zero number of players besides Mookie and X that were missed. And some of those players clearly enjoyed it here. Which I think the front office also said (paraphrasing) “we want to keep people who want to be here.” Ok then, show us.
 

Apisith

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This is one of the things I really liked about Dombrowski. At the beginning of the offseason he would publicly outline what he felt they needed, and then go out and execute. Don't get me wrong, the guy has left more dead money around the league than anyone, but his messaging was consistent with his actions. Also, 2018.
But wasn't that only possible because of the number of cost-controlled players already on the major league team and the number of assets in the farm? Easy to spend $30m on Price and $25m on JD to try to put the team over the top when Mookie produced 10 wins for $10m and Xander 5 wins for $7m.

It's far more difficult for Bloom IMO. Even after a relatively dry 2 offseasons, our payroll is still at the CBT threshold. Bloom's made mistakes, but he's also constrained by Sale being paid $30m for zero production.
 

LogansDad

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I am still not a Bloomophile. I don’t like the penny-pinching, scrapheap, Tampa North, let all the fan favorites go kind of vibe the current front office is giving off, and I think we’re headed for our 4th uncompetitive season out of 5.
Red Sox Extend Devers - 11 Years, $332 Million
Red Sox Extend Devers - 11 Years, $332 Million
Red Sox Extend Devers - 11 Years, $332 Million



This is literally the title of the thread you posted the bolded in. Seriously.
 

BornToRun

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Just wanna drop by to say that baseball has me excited again and every time I log onto SoSH and see this thread title, I giggle a little bit.
 

Niastri

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Occam's razor -- It seems far more likely and natural that the Sox made a change in strategy because, like everyone else, they were a bit surprised by the salary/years explosion in free agent contracts and had to adjust to the new market. I like Carrabis' podcasts, they're entertaining, but the idea that Henry added $100m onto their offer because he had hurt feelings is WEEI nonsense. The offseason narratives are so tiresome. It's 99% economics, and it's in an unusual state of flux right now.
Everything you just said, plus they actually came to a deal for Devers that makes baseball sense.

Most of the deals made this season are doomed to be vast overpays from the moment they were signed. I think the Devers contract is an exception.
 

BornToRun

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Everything you just said, plus they actually came to a deal for Devers that makes baseball sense.

Most of the deals made this season are doomed to be vast overpays from the moment they were signed. I think the Devers contract is an exception.
30 per while entering his prime years on a deal that ends at 36 years old is pretty damn team friendly in this market.