Again, I’m not there yet. But at some point, if he’s an offensive zero, it’s best for all that he’s not in the majors. So I’m curious about it the rules with his contract.
Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
I could see sending him down for a short stay if they thought that just getting some hits might jump start his offense a bit.
Can someone speak to how his projections compare to JBJ?
Can someone speak to how his projections compare to JBJ?
Rafaela's AAA numbers were sensational for a gold-glove type. Let's give the guy several months of ML pitching before we start drawing any conclusions? Anything less is really meaningless as far as his future projections go.
Rafaela has 2 options remaining (including this year). Since he has <5 years of service time, I believe he could be optioned, for example, this year and next freely. However, his contract is guaranteed and counts against the cap regardless.
RFsnyder can play either of the corners, Yoshida while not optimal can play LF. Once RFsnyder returned from the IL, Rafaela shifted to SS and they were still without O'Neill for another 3 or 4 games. At this point I think Rafaela sticks at SS
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What a day for Ceddanne! Maybe that is exactly what he needs to get him going? He is our starting SS for the foreseeable future. He can impact the game in so many ways. I feel a hot streak coming.
Last time he went on a hot streak (AAA) he went nuts for 220 plate appearances in AAA and posted a slugging percentage north of .600. I'd take it.
He actually crept over the Line in today’s game. And pounded a 2 run homer
Has anyone explored the difference between the general positive reactions to Rafaela's defense in comparison to his relatively poor ratings on defensive stats? Fangraphs has him at -1.4 defensive WAR in 180.67 innings. By UZR/150 he's the 20th best CF and 39th best SS in baseball with a minimum of 50 innings. Only Elly De La Cruz and Mookie Betts have been worse at shortstop this year. By statcast OAA he's at 0 on the year for CF and -2 for SS. Overall his fielding run value on statcast is 19th percentile. BR likes him better, at .4 defensive WAR.
UZR just hates his work at shortstop this year. His UZR/150 at SS of -41.8 is more than twice as bad as any Red Sox shortstop last season (where Rafaela was also the worst with a -20 UZR/150, second worst being Kike at -10 and third worst (not counting Dalbec's 8 inning sample) being Reyes at -.7. Last year people hated Kike at SS, and yet by UZR/150 Rafaela has been 4 times worse than Kike was last year. The UZR/Fangraphs numbers also don't include today's game (and additional error) yet.
He has 6 of the team's 30 errors.
I don't really know much about defensive stats, but I know that they require a pretty big sample to be predictive, so I'm certainly not suggesting that these numbers are indicative of what Rafaela's actual abilities are. I know he has a sterling defensive reputation. But shouldn't they at least reflect what has happened so far this season?
I'm really curious as to what the disconnect is. The media and fans here gush about his defense, yet the numbers say that he hasn't just been bad, but really bad, particularly at shortstop. Are we just writing off the errors as jitters? Is it that he's made big plays at key moments, but that his miscues have not led to much damage (similar to a WPA vs WAR contrast, where a player with an overall bad statline can still "win" games for the team by coming up big in the clutch).
I'd love to see a nuanced take that bridges the gap between the commentary around Ceddanne's defense and what the numbers say that doesn't just wave off defensive metrics as voodoo.
Scouts had him as the only 8 scale fielder among minor leaguers on the Fangraphs Board but not in regards to his SS play, so it kind of sucks that he has to play there. He really doesn't have a ton of experience with just 71 games started in the minors which is less than a third of his OF time. He was error prone there, and still is. UZR is maybe the worst sabremetric fielding stat on a small sample size so it's not worth parsing that IMO. I'm chalking it up to growing pains.
I can recall two instances that have showed me his potential at SS - one where he barehanded a grounder and threw a seed to first on a bang bang play, and a really quick DP turn. I haven't seen plays where he's needed to be rangey at SS off the top of my head but I haven't seen every inning of every game. CF is such a small sample - he has 31 putouts and also 3 errors, so I'm sure that's gumming everything up.
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The three CF errors:
One was "show boating". I can't recall if he was making a basket catch and it clanged off the heel of his glove. But it was a relatively easy play. He's a young player, he probably won't make that mistake again (generally).
One was a dead run that he reached out and it hit the tip of his glove but wasn't able to make the catch. It was amazing that he got to the ball at all. Many here questioned if it was actually an error.
The last was a play that Abreu misplayed a base hit, CNote was backing him up and he bobbled the ball allowing runners to advance (maybe score). It was an error...but Abreu should have made the initial play.
I talked about this earlier in the thread too, and I don't mean to dismiss defensive stats, but I think that is part of the idea of "watching the games" vs just looking at the stats. Not only is @greenmountains on point about the 3 errors, but it also doesn't take into account the fact that (the way the games played out) the Red Sox would almost assuredly have lost two games if Rafaela weren't in CF (the catch he made in extras against Oakland, taking the home run away from Oakland in Pivetta's 1-0 win out there). Could Duran have made those plays - possible, I suppose, but seems unlikely.
One thing I also guess I tend to assume about Fangraphs (and I admit I could be WAY off) is that there "values" are all predictive based. They base hitting WAR and pitching WAR on advanced stats and what "should" have happened - I'd guess it's the same scenario for defense and that they remain consistent, but I can't state this definitively. BBRef bases their "values" on what actually happened - or in other words, the results actually matter, not just the predictive analytics.
I would tend to assume that this is some of the reason for the disconnect in valuations that you were trying to get to @Pedroia's Itchy Nose.
I think we can also say this about Rafaela, in light of the Story injury, is that the infield defense would almost assuredly be a shambles if he wasn't up in Boston.
I don't think it was showboating, but it was not a good effort.
https://985thesportshub.com/2024/04/06/ceddanne-rafaela-makes-errors-too/
This is where it starts and ends for me, w/r/t his defense at SS, given how
the alternatives fielded the position. He is better.
27.3% K rate (119 ABs, so this is likely real) is encouraging. It's not incredible, but my fear was that he would run a 35% K rate or something like that, which would make it tough to play him regularly. If he can start to get to more of his power in games, that coupled with his defense and speed makes him a very useful player.
B-Ref backs this up a bit:
"Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) is the most sophisticated public system available. It includes 8 factors:
- Fielding Range Plus/Minus Runs Saved based on BIS-trained scorer observations and batted ball timing to determine the velocity of each batted ball.
- Outfield arm runs saved based on exact counts of baserunner advancements and kills and the velocity of the hit ball. It doesn't include the threat of trying to advance depending on fielder reputation. Sort of like - don't throw it to Deion's side.
- Infielder double plays based on opportunities and rates they were turned based also on batted ball velocity. Lack of opportunity so far = lack of piling up those DRS.
- Good play-bad play values which include 28 positive play types. For example: HR-saving catches, backing up a play, blocking a pitch in the dirt, and 54 misplays like missing the cutoff man, failing to anticipate the wall and allowing extra bases, not covering a base, pulling a foot off the bag, etc... These "not captured in the box score" plays are factored in with b-REF as opposed to Fangraphs.
- Bunt Fielding
- Catcher SB/CS data (which is tweaked by the pitchers caught)
- Pitcher SB/CS data (which is tweaked by the catchers behind the plate)
- Catcher handling of the pitching staff via things like pitch framing and pitch calling" This seems the most subjective by far. Tough to evaluate pitch calling or missed locations.
TL/DR I vastly prefer bWAR for defense.
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Since Rafaela took over the SS job full time, the Red Sox are 9-6 and outscored their opponents 77-34. He has bumped his BA up 40 points in that span. I watch every game. He has settled down the whole defense, and it helps that Duran has quietly played a great CF. You can look at all the different defensive metrics you want to, but sometimes it just takes watching the game to know that he has been very good since the move.
The "run prevention unit" is something of a unit, and boy is it crushing it this year. Sometimes I think the pursuit of metrics (which I almost always love) can lose the forest for the trees. For him to stabilize the infield, and for the outfield to be built around defense across the board, has to be a big part of the pitching, particularly the FIP vs ERA, which currently sits at an ERA of 2.63, a FIP of 3.33 and xFIP of 3.61. Even with the errors, an average defense (with average outcomes) is a run worse per nine than the current Sox defense, collectively.
"It's not incredible" is a bit of an understatement; it's awful. Only 18 qualified players ran a higher K rate last season; only 29 out of 171 have a higher K rate this season. And while it's not impossible to be productive at the plate with a strikeout rate that high, it more or less is impossible to do it when you pair it with a walk rate as low as Rafaela's (3.1%). He's basically Javy Baez at the plate. He's been flat-out bad, and if it weren't for the injuries that have forced him into regular playing time, he would've (and should've) been sent down a while ago.
ETA: To give an idea of how bad Rafaela has been: His -0.4 fWAR is tied for 13th worst in the majors among qualified players. He's been less valuable overall than Tim Anderson and Nicky Lopez. He honestly has no business being in the majors right now.
To put it in further context: In his brief return to Boston in 2022, Jackie Bradley Jr was worth -0.5 fWAR in 92 games. Rafaela has almost matched him in just 35.
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Thanks for the take. Numbers don't tell the whole story and can be just as subjective as the eye test. Personally, I prefer the eye test, but I understand why others rely more on numbers alone.
One other B-Ref vs Fangraphs note since it's only tangentially related to this discussion.
Wilyer Abreu has 5 DRS which leads right fielders. Alec Burleson has 1.
Wilyer has a UZR/150 of 18.9 and Burleson 92.2.
Wilyer's UZR/150 last season was -12.8 and Burleson's was . . .7.
B-Ref has Abreu's dWAR as .6 better than Burleson's and Fangraphs has Burleson's better by .2.
You can kind of see how useless UZR/150 is at this point or arguably ever vs how much the two players have actually contributed on the field.
Wilyer Abreu has 5 DRS which leads right fielders. Alec Burleson has 1.
Wilyer has a UZR/150 of 18.9 and Burleson 92.2.
Wilyer's UZR/150 last season was -12.8 and Burleson's was . . .7.
B-Ref has Abreu's dWAR as .6 better than Burleson's and Fangraphs has Burleson's better by .2.
You can kind of see how useless UZR/150 is at this point or arguably ever vs how much the two players have actually contributed on the field.
How does he improve against major league pitching in Worcester? Comparing him to Bradley on his way out of baseball isn't very enlightening. He's 23, crushed at AAA already, and has his whole future ahead of him.
Looking at what breakdowns each metric provides, here's what I see.
Savant's OAA has him at par in 36 attempts in CF and -2 in 48 attempts at SS. They have him 25th on the throwing arm leaderboard.
The two advanced stats available on B-R are widely divided:
TZ has him -1 in CF and at par at SS. So the errors are basically swamping everything else so far.
Baseball Info Solutions' DRS, in contrast, has him at +2 in CF (which they extrapolate to +17 for a season) and at par at SS.
UZR has him considerably positive in CF — except for the errors, which almost entirely wipe out his positive value. At SS, they think he's been horrible, but again, looking at the subcategories, it's errors (or rather ErrR) that's driving the valuation: his range (RngR) is very slightly negative and precisely offset by a positive evaluation of his double play turns (DPR), so his overall value is equal to his ErrR.
So summing this up: Rafaela is a very good CF, who has made two weird fielding errors on balls he reached and was assigned a throwing error on a relay that (in real time) was probably Triston Casas' misplay of a pretty good throw. The errors have capsized his numbers. He is an average-ish shortstop with a better than average throwing arm and good DP turns. But again, he's made a few more fielding errors than would be expected, which has hurt his numbers.
So what do we make of the errors? I am willing to ascribe them to a young player adjusting to the big league game and parks while also having his defensive responsibilities rejiggered on the fly. (I've also watched/listened to about 90% of the games this season, FWIW, and think I can remember all of them.) If you instead think that the errors are part of the package going forward, then that would definitely be cause for concern.
Savant's OAA has him at par in 36 attempts in CF and -2 in 48 attempts at SS. They have him 25th on the throwing arm leaderboard.
The two advanced stats available on B-R are widely divided:
TZ has him -1 in CF and at par at SS. So the errors are basically swamping everything else so far.
Baseball Info Solutions' DRS, in contrast, has him at +2 in CF (which they extrapolate to +17 for a season) and at par at SS.
UZR has him considerably positive in CF — except for the errors, which almost entirely wipe out his positive value. At SS, they think he's been horrible, but again, looking at the subcategories, it's errors (or rather ErrR) that's driving the valuation: his range (RngR) is very slightly negative and precisely offset by a positive evaluation of his double play turns (DPR), so his overall value is equal to his ErrR.
So summing this up: Rafaela is a very good CF, who has made two weird fielding errors on balls he reached and was assigned a throwing error on a relay that (in real time) was probably Triston Casas' misplay of a pretty good throw. The errors have capsized his numbers. He is an average-ish shortstop with a better than average throwing arm and good DP turns. But again, he's made a few more fielding errors than would be expected, which has hurt his numbers.
So what do we make of the errors? I am willing to ascribe them to a young player adjusting to the big league game and parks while also having his defensive responsibilities rejiggered on the fly. (I've also watched/listened to about 90% of the games this season, FWIW, and think I can remember all of them.) If you instead think that the errors are part of the package going forward, then that would definitely be cause for concern.
I don't get it..... aggresive hitters aren't going to magically learn to lay off incredibly hittable stuff in AAA and just get walks suddenly. Why would they? You can see that Rafaela has been hitting the ball better, swinging better and taking a better approach just over the past few weeks. I expect that to continue. Yes, he likely will always have a high K rate and a low BB rate but his batting eye seems incredible and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few seasons where he hits over .300 (possibly with only a .330 OBP though).
Right, and none of this should be a surprise. Just a year ago we watched Casas struggle to adjust to the quantum leap in quality of pitching, and he got there. This is Rafaela's floor, nothing more.
Casas is a weird example, but I understand what you're saying. This is likely Cedanne's floor. Casas always had elite plate discipline, pitch recognition and approach and it was only a matter of time. I get the concern about Rafaela in that he's never been a hitter like Casas so his offensive skills will be based on putting the ball in play which has a higher variation in outcomes over a Three-True-Outcome type like Casas.
All that said, I'm so not worried. His batting eye reminds more more of Mookie rather than JBJ (if we must compare). He moves through the zone so fast and can quickly adjust and catch up to pitches he's committed to swinging on. I think he's likely to run hot and cold like JBJ but I think, like you said, we're seeing his floor now and there's lots to see clearly that he'll only be going upwards
As a hitter he reminds me more of Orlando Cabrera. A bit overaggressive early in counts and in big spots, which gets him into 0-2 or 1-2 holes more than would be ideal, but enough bat speed and coordination to still get two-strike hits and punish mistakes. I think he'll be a legitimate offensive contributor (OBP .330 sounds right). Has a bit of the O-Cab swagger too.
I think eye tests are acceptable if the eyes are seeing a guy nearly everyday.
Numbers may help compare "eye-guy" to players you dont see as much.
Thought this went without saying, but to be clear this should be mentioned (as the conversation gets muddled with not-that-telling defensive stats).
This kid, a rookie, has played two of the most difficult positions on the diamond, somewhere between average to elite. You don't see this often, folks, because it is hard.
You're basing the damning judgment of a rookie on small samples and volatile measuring tools.
How can you ignore what his move to shortstop seems to have done for the team's defense? Who would you prefer at SS right now?
You guys need to put away the bullshit. You're both top quality posters but this is childish crap.
If you want to know, immediately after Bob posted the above, he went on to argue the baseline for baseball outcomes (an extreme extra-innings record) was unpredictable randomness, and directly asked me on what basis I could really assert baseball outcomes had another cause.
Which might seem hypocritical or shit-stirring or something, since those were his only two daily posts on the board at that point. But I answered him: one has to watch the games, to see what actually happened.
To which he doubled down and asserted that actually watching a set of games to see what choices were made and what actual outcomes flowed from them made me a "champ" and was "[p]urely anecdotal armchair evidence."
So I thought blankly quoting him here was a bit more high-toned than dwelling on his bullshit or explaining it. Which might seem condescending or rude or something.
Whereas the bare quote had the possibility that I'm joshing right back at the old kidder. But I guess that was wrong in insufficiently saving face for Bob?
Well, but you could say this for any top prospect at AAA - isn't it just better to have them improve against ML pitching (or hitting)? Why not just skip AAA? But working on pitch selection, recognition, etc., can still happen in the minors. Even if the talent level is lower, there's still a lot of talent, and those are skill sets that can be developed and then transferred to the bigs. But in AAA the development happens with no detriment to the major league team. I think I agree with Yellow Dart; if the team were fully healthy, Rafaela might benefit from a little more time in AAA. BUT ...they do need him now without Story, so hopefully, step by step, he improves.
You really like to get personal, to a somewhat creepy degree. It seems to flow from your hatred of being disagreed with, even on such an obviously contentious matter as extra inning losses and game management.
Personal? I don't know anything about you.
There was very little activity on the board this AM and you made two topsy-turvy posts - one of which quoted me and asked me a direct question.
It's some kind of shocker that I responded? Or that I read both your posts and was able to remember one after the other?
Using fWAR this early into the season is a bit ridiculous when you consider that they use UZR to measure defense, which is notoriously unreliable in small sample sizes.
I generally detest the "eye test" but I've watched almost every game this year and I refuse to believe that a -38.9 UZR/150 is an accurate measure of his defense at SS. He may not be Trevor Story, but ever since we moved him to SS our team defense has been significantly better to a noticeable degree.
He's also just 35 games into his rookie year, so I'm going to hold off judgement until we see more of him. Throwing any player from CF to SS is going to be tough on them, especially a 23 year old rookie.