Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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Well this is a little bizarre honestly, Given the complete unknown nature of his bat.
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Just because he agreed first doesn't mean he was the priority though. I'm sure there are some other offers out there too.
Is that the real number or just a guess? Because it would only buy one extra year and be an extreme overpay if he never learns how to hit.
I didn't mean to suggest he was a priority over the others. I'm just surprised they'd be discussing an extension with him at all.
Guess or source? Either way, that'd be a gross overpay for six years, especially since that's only one extra year of control from what they already had.
I hope you're joking. That only buys out 1 year post-arb and he'll make far less than that if they don't sign him to anything.
Very weird move. I love the player and the potential, but we haven't seen much yet. Let him earn it.
I definitely would have waited one year. We have no idea if this guy can even be a legit major leaguer yet.
How can they *know*? He hasn't even really been tested at all against MLB pitching yet. He's got 113 total career AB in the majors (.239/.282/.389/.672). They're comfortable taking a gamble but how can they know?
Higher risk, higher reward the sooner you commit.
They probably feel the D is so good that his bat doesn't have to be much with the bat to at least be useful.
Waiting a year for more data sounds nice, but if he proves he can hit major league pitching remotely approaching his minor league #s, this contract will be much more expensive.
They probably feel the D is so good that his bat doesn't have to be much with the bat to at least be useful.
Waiting a year for more data sounds nice, but if he proves he can hit major league pitching remotely approaching his minor league #s, this contract will be much more expensive.
Come on BJ--I mean "know" in the context of they feel pretty good about what they've seen since they got him in the organization and the kid's makeup, etc.
Obviously they feel pretty good or they wouldn't have given him the new contract. My point is just that he hasn't really hit MLB pitching yet and so yeah you can feel pretty good about him, but it's still a pretty sizable risk. There's been lots of prospects people have felt pretty good about that ended up doing diddly squat.
But here's the thing: I really want this whole program of raising up talent in the organization and seeing them play here for a long time work out. So I'm on board with the player. Just think it's a risk because he really hasn't demonstrated MLB hitting ability yet.
This guy was the 22nd ranked prospect in baseball and got 28 mil guaranteed with three option years.
https://www.mlb.com/news/tigers-sign-colt-keith-to-6-year-extension
https://www.mlb.com/news/tigers-sign-colt-keith-to-6-year-extension
If I had to make a very rough guess, in 2-4 years, whenever Miguel Bleis is ready to take over the CF spot, having Little Rafi on a long term deal makes him really valuable in trade (again, assuming that he's a leage average hitter).
Let’s see the $$ but his floor is so unbelievably high. He could be a .250/.290/.390 guy and still put up 3+ WAR.
I haven't seen the numbers yet, but I like this kind of signing. Not all deals are going to work out, the ones that do sorta pay for the ones that don't--or at least they even out.
The Brewers gave Chourio $82 million before he ever played an MLB game so this is nothing new.
I can see it as a good gamble. I'm curious about the money. The money is what makes or breaks this for me. Rafaela has an interesting profile, though. He's a 70+ grade defender at multiple positions, including CF and SS. Even if he doesn't hit, he has value as a defender and can pretty much play every position except C and 1B, so he's worth keeping on a 26-man roster since he provides depth at every position.
I’m a Bleis believer, but there’s no guarantee that guy ever gets to MLB at all. He’s very exciting with a crazy-high ceiling, but he’s not one we should be planning around at this stage.
Yeah, his floor is extremely high (as floors go) and his athleticism hopefully means he will be the same guy for a while.
It's SoSH. The deal is a dumb overpay precisely until they won't pay enough to keep homegrown talent. And no, we don't need to know the terms of the contract.
Yeah, I think this makes some sense. It’s debatable that timeline might even be moved up a year or two, depending where they view Anthony long term.
Of course I’m interested in the terms, but I really like it for *vibes* reasons, so far. Bello and Rafaela are not superstars, but this is what we’ve envied about the Braves, and if it turns into a domino effect or a “culture” of signing extensions, that seems like a good thing overall.
Because for most of his career he's been a free swinger with a barely-workable BB/K ratio? It's not outside the realm of possibility his bat won't fully translate to the majors and he'll be a defensive ++ CF with moderate speed.
That's not nothing, but you don't want to see significant resources locked up in that sort of player.
His upside is much much higher. (And the Sox clearly know his makeup, approach, adaptability, etc. more than we do here.)
So while hoping the Sox have correctly pegged his bat as viable (113 ML ABs so far) I expect a lot of people here are also waiting to see what the $/years are. There's a spectrum of good-deal-regardless/acceptable-risk/oh-man-I-hope-this-works. I think we're all a bit tired of the last category.
I think the argument is reasonable, though I do think terms are everything.
My mind goes to a few different comps, and to me they often lost their highest value edge in their late-20s or early-30s - the JBJ, Javy Baez types. If they get a deal that locks in those tail end years at not a huge cost, I really like it. With that said, to me his floor is "non-playable" - which worries me, even if his defense remains great, if his offense isn't there I don't think we're thrilled with a locked in, high single figure glove only guy.
With that said, teams don't really get to choose who they have access to to extend in these spots, just to extend them. Ceddanne signed for 10k seven years ago and has been on a minor league salary since. Not that I think the Sox would take advantage of that, I do think it incentivized him to lock in a deal for guaranteed, life changing money and I hope the Sox treated him fairly in that while getting some value on the backend.
My mind goes to a few different comps, and to me they often lost their highest value edge in their late-20s or early-30s - the JBJ, Javy Baez types. If they get a deal that locks in those tail end years at not a huge cost, I really like it. With that said, to me his floor is "non-playable" - which worries me, even if his defense remains great, if his offense isn't there I don't think we're thrilled with a locked in, high single figure glove only guy.
With that said, teams don't really get to choose who they have access to to extend in these spots, just to extend them. Ceddanne signed for 10k seven years ago and has been on a minor league salary since. Not that I think the Sox would take advantage of that, I do think it incentivized him to lock in a deal for guaranteed, life changing money and I hope the Sox treated him fairly in that while getting some value on the backend.
This has to be why they are doing this. There probably is some sort of negative perception of the team in baseball circles that they need to change, and more importantly, the negative perception is not unfounded. So this turn towards a stable, longer term plan sounds super healthy, as long as they don't make any major misses.
Its for sure an overpay. I have a spreadsheet that I worked on all by myself that shows it!
If they are locking this guy up that means they think he is going to get "expensive" (in the forward value sense) really quickly. It may be a bad call but if they believe in him they are supposed to extend him.
Also, the next time this board has a good handle on a pro athlete's true market will be the first. Its not our fault - we are at a huge information disadvantage to the professionals we follow. Their results, with much more data, is mixed so our takes are pretty silly overall. Oh, except yours.
It's always dangerous to make projections based on prospect lists and that kind of thing BUT one thing that could make the team and us more comfortable with committing like this to Rafaela is the expectation of having plus offensive players at the other most premium defensive positions in the near future.