Red Sox acquire Drew Pomeranz for Anderson Espinoza

Deathofthebambino

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Pomeranz was the 5th overall selection in the 2010 draft, and got to start his career in the launching pad at Coors Field. I discount just about everything when it comes to that place and pitchers. He then goes to Oakland, and his numbers got better for two straight years (FiP, bb/9, k/9, etc.) and then ended up in San Diego this year, and has been fantastic. I don't see this season as a "career" year to the extent that it's something out of the blue. I see a pretty natural progression for a guy who was slowly brought along innings-wise and is peaking at age 27, which is anything but out of the ordinary. He's caught up to the promise that people had for him when he was drafted out of 'ole Miss. At 6'6', 240, he's also got the frame to be a workhorse. Just because he hasn't yet doesn't mean he's made of glass. IMO, it's good that he hasn't been throwing 200+ innings a year. He's got the arm of a 22 year old. The more I think about this, the more I like it, and thats without getting into the level of need for a starting pitcher the Sox had, and the potential to find one of any value at the trade deadline or in the offseason. The fact they didn't have to give up the three guys that I see as much more "can't miss" in AB, Moncada and Devers, just makes it all the better, IMO.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Another reason: Dombrowski chose not to sign Rich Hill, who wound up signing a one-year deal for peanuts with the A's.
This narrative needs to fucking stop. Signing Rich Hill last fall was never going to happen. Six million dollars for a guy who'd made four (FOUR!!!) good starts two months removed from the independent leagues was a gigantic gamble, and one the Red Sox at the time didn't have the need to make since they had nine possible rotation candidates already in house.

Besides, without guaranteeing him a rotation spot, he wasn't going to sign here anyway. And they did not have the rotation spot to guarantee.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Four cool things about Pomeranz:

1) he has huge vertical movement (-9.1) on his curve; it ranks second among 12 knuckle curves and 6th among 67 curves of both types in this category. What is more fun to watch than a lefty with a big looping curve?

2) From an FG article about how big a deal the addition of the cutter has been for Pomeranz: "Want to know a fun fact? His third time through the order this season, Pomeranz has yielded a paltry .328 OPS. That’s the best mark in baseball by more than 100 points."

3) His great-grandfather was a pretty good pitcher (albeit in a very short career) for the Cleveland Indians, with the insanely perfect name of Garland Buckeye.

4) He and his fellow major leaguer, brother Stu, are namesakes of the Pickles brothers from Rugrats but were born three and seven years before the series aired.
 
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DeadlySplitter

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I am just a lowly lurker, but as far as I can tell only one poster has mentioned that we just picked up an All-Star pitcher for a low A prospect, who is years away from the bigs. And he looked pretty good in the All-Star game, facing Perez, JBJ, Altuve and Trout - only giving up a single to JBJ, and getting out of the inning on 12 pitches. I really like this trade.
Using the ASG as an example is terrible.
 

j44thor

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I wonder if bentendeti had more or less trade value than Espinoza. Benny looks like a Brett Gardner clone to me and I would have preferred to move him over Espinoza.
 

pedroia'sboys

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This narrative needs to fucking stop. Signing Rich Hill last fall was never going to happen. Six million dollars for a guy who'd made four (FOUR!!!) good starts two months removed from the independent leagues was a gigantic gamble, and one the Red Sox at the time didn't have the need to make since they had nine possible rotation candidates already in house.

Besides, without guaranteeing him a rotation spot, he wasn't going to sign here anyway. And they did not have the rotation spot to guarantee.
6 million is a giant gamble? At worst he would of been a dominant lefty reliever.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Pomeranz was the 5th overall selection in the 2010 draft, and got to start his career in the launching pad at Coors Field. I discount just about everything when it comes to that place and pitchers. He then goes to Oakland, and his numbers got better for two straight years (FiP, bb/9, k/9, etc.) and then ended up in San Diego this year, and has been fantastic. I don't see this season as a "career" year to the extent that it's something out of the blue. I see a pretty natural progression for a guy who was slowly brought along innings-wise and is peaking at age 27, which is anything but out of the ordinary. He's caught up to the promise that people had for him when he was drafted out of 'ole Miss. At 6'6', 240, he's also got the frame to be a workhorse. Just because he hasn't yet doesn't mean he's made of glass. IMO, it's good that he hasn't been throwing 200+ innings a year. He's got the arm of a 22 year old. The more I think about this, the more I like it, and thats without getting into the level of need for a starting pitcher the Sox had, and the potential to find one of any value at the trade deadline or in the offseason. The fact they didn't have to give up the three guys that I see as much more "can't miss" in AB, Moncada and Devers, just makes it all the better, IMO.
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Jun 24, 2016
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I don't like this trade. I think we're going to look back on this one and regret it. Also, being so close to having Groome, Espinoza and Kopech in the same farm system but just missing it stings a bit. Yeah, I'm a prospect humper, but I just don't think Pomeranz is the level of pitcher you need to get back for an 18 year old who throws that hard, that easy and already has a three plus pitch mix.

Someone convince me I'm wrong... please.
Drew Pomeranz, is basically Rich Hill but younger. After May 18th of this year, he had a drop in exit velocity down to 86.7. The reduced exit velocity, which coincides with his new three pitch mix, makes him top ten level.

What new three pitch mix? Through May 11, over seven starts, Pomeranz threw 4% cutters. Since May 18, over 10 starts, he’s thrown 19% cutters.

So now, he's just wildly underrated, because it all happened so recently, and the projections are lagging very far behind.

Consider the reverse, If Pomeranz had been snapped up by Texas or Toronto? Sox would be facing Pomeranz to get to the WS.

I can't help you if you have prospect love for Espinoza. I wish him well, but he would not have helped the Sox this year or next, when the Sox really need help the most. By 2018, they'll have Kopech ready, if not sooner, and FAs they can bid for, too.

Real hard not to like this deal.
 

DJnVa

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How this is a better solution than trading Michael Chavis for Andrew Cashner and then trading Espinoza as part of a splash-the-pot package for a better starter in the off-season, I'll never know.

Well, johnnywayback, I guess it's just a mystery then huh?
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I wonder if bentendeti had more or less trade value than Espinoza. Benny looks like a Brett Gardner clone to me and I would have preferred to move him over Espinoza.
WTF? Benintendi has hit 18 home runs already in less than 600 minor league PA. Gardner hit half that many in almost exactly three times as many minor-league PA. That's an interesting definition of "clone."
 

pedroia'sboys

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I wonder if bentendeti had more or less trade value than Espinoza. Benny looks like a Brett Gardner clone to me and I would have preferred to move him over Espinoza.
That's insane you could call Benetendi up now and he's an upgrade over holt. The average LF this year has a ops around 750. Espinoza is years away and has a the inherent risk of being a pitcher. If Benny is Brett Gardner he's already a 18 million dollar a year player.
 

Ed Hillel

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This is a fair deal for both teams and preferable to overpaying for a guy like Fernandez (were he even available). The Sox get a really good cost-controlled MLB arm for their cost-controlled seasons with the Killer B's and the Padres get a potential stud arm to build upon down the road. Now is the absolute perfect time for the Sox to make this sort of trade, with the 3-year window of cheap position talent and Price in the rotation. Positive marks for both sides.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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6 million is a giant gamble? At worst he would of been a dominant lefty reliever.
Again, six million dollars for a 36-year-old who'd washed out of four organizations in two years and who they'd picked up off the independent scrap heap to eat some meaningless innings at the end of a lost season. Sorry, but those four stellar starts aren't enough to convince me he had found the Bartolo Colon fountain of youth.

And I'll reiterate, he wasn't signing where he wasn't going to be given a rotation spot. I'd imagine between six million from the Red Sox to maybe start and maybe make the bullpen versus six million from the A's with an assured rotation spot, he's taking the A's offer anyway. So the notion that they could have had him for just the $6M is folly.
 

Laser Show

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The more I think about this the more I'm ok with it. I love Espinoza but what I keep coming back to is the window opening with Bogaerts, Betts, and Bradley. Who knows how long we can keep them together. There's very little available in free agency and nothing anywhere close in the farm. This was a necessary move.

Now I just hope Pomeranz is for real.
 

OCD SS

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We shouldn't be surprised by DD making a deal that mortgages the long term vs. the short and medium term. We also shouldn't be surprised he moved decisively instead of waiting around until the deadline to exploit the last bit of value out of the deal. Acting now may have saved us from 2-3 Buchholz starts in a very tight division.

I still don't like this through. I'd rather they have dealt Benintendi, since I still think it will be harder to find future pitching than plug in a LFer in the near term. I can see the TNSTAAP thinking, but they only way to get an ace is to develop your own.
 

soxhop411

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We shouldn't be surprised by DD making a deal that mortgages the long term vs. the short and medium term. We also shouldn't be surprised he moved decisively instead of waiting around until the deadline to exploit the last bit of value out of the deal. Acting now may have saved us from 2-3 Buchholz starts in a very tight division.

I still don't like this through. I'd rather they have dealt Benintendi, since I still think it will be harder to find future pitching than plug in a LFer in the near term. I can see the TNSTAAP thinking, but they only way to get an ace is to develop your own.

Though also waiting could have meant either being left with the slim pickings or paying more in terms of prospect cost. Not just 2-3 starts from clay
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I wonder if bentendeti had more or less trade value than Espinoza. Benny looks like a Brett Gardner clone to me and I would have preferred to move him over Espinoza.
What? They are not even remotely similar players. In five minor league seasons Gardner hit 10 HRs. AB did that in his first 54 games and at a younger age. Gardner was a slap hitting, base stealing CFer. AB has legit power potential. Other than being small white guys id be curious why you think they are similar profiles.

And AB has far more value than Espinoza. He's a much surer bet with a far less chance of flaming out. He will prob be in the bugs before the end of the season, while AE is minimum four years away. Every prospect ranking has AB higher if not considerably higher.
 

Harry Hooper

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This is a fair deal for both teams and preferable to overpaying for a guy like Fernandez (were he even available). The Sox get a really good cost-controlled MLB arm for their cost-controlled seasons with the Killer B's and the Padres get a potential stud arm to build upon down the road. Now is the absolute perfect time for the Sox to make this sort of trade, with the 3-year window of cheap position talent and Price in the rotation. Positive marks for both sides.
It does look like a deal where the NPV's of the players pretty much line up and the Sox do a time shift to get help sooner than later.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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We shouldn't be surprised by DD making a deal that mortgages the long term vs. the short and medium term. We also shouldn't be surprised he moved decisively instead of waiting around until the deadline to exploit the last bit of value out of the deal. Acting now may have saved us from 2-3 Buchholz starts in a very tight division.

I still don't like this through. I'd rather they have dealt Benintendi, since I still think it will be harder to find future pitching than plug in a LFer in the near term. I can see the TNSTAAP thinking, but they only way to get an ace is to develop your own.
Unless you're the Cubs, Mets, Indians, Rangers, Diamondbacks, or Red Sox.
 

Rough Carrigan

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I really liked Espinoza. I liked the promise he has, the basis for imagining at the extreme apex of possibilities a pedro-ish starter. How do you accurately project that kind of possibility.

But he's 3-4 years away from being a contributor in the show with a whole minefield of possible problems between him now and that point. I guess I'm okay with this.

A previous poster said that if this was done in part because of it being Ortiz's last year then DD should be fired. But that's silly. It's part of the context of the team. Whether a guy is retiring or leaving as a free agent or whatever circumstance is such that you don't think one of your team's biggest contributors will be there next year then you have to take that into account. If you don't then you're ignoring the full context of your team's situation.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Honest question I haven't seen much of Pomeranz. What exactly did we just acquire it feels like Porcello 2.0.
There could probably not be a pitcher less like Rick Porcello than Drew Pomeranz. (1) He's lefthanded; (2) his primary fastball is a 4-seamer; (3) He's a high K/moderately high BB/low HR and BABIP pitcher, as opposed to a moderately low K/very low BB/high HR and BABIP pitcher. Talent level aside, it's a bit like saying Sandy Koufax reminds you of Greg Maddux.
 
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Rasputin

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6 million is a giant gamble? At worst he would of been a dominant lefty reliever.
Would HAVE. For fuck's sake, would HAVE. You look like a goddamn moron when you say "would of."

Also, and this is a serious question, do you seriously think there is any team in baseball that would take four starts as evidence that a guy should be paid six million dollars to be the tenth man in line to start? Because that's what you're saying.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Honest question I haven't seen much of Pomeranz. What exactly did we just acquire it feels like Porcello 2.0.
Well, this explains your previous posts...actually, no, it doesn't, but let's start here: In 2016, 102IP, 67 H, 115k, 1.06 WHIP.
 
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RoDaddy

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Using the ASG as an example is terrible.
But the point still is that he's an all-star! This year! I hate to lose Espinosa as much as amyone, but in addition to getting a needed quality starting pitcher (again, an ALL-STAR), they just reportedly signed Groome and Kopech is hitting 100+ and dominating in his return to action. I'll also mention that Espin has struggled this year, somewhat unexpectedly. The fact that he is only 18 in middle A with his stuff is very impressive but still, I wonder if his value was lowered a bit in the organization's eyes because of this year's struggles
 

timelysarcasm

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I don't know what people really expected in a market that has shown itself to be heavily lopsided toward sellers, particular with regards to pitching. What would you have preferred, knowing what the market has borne, what the upcoming FA market looks like, and the window of time in which the Red Sox have the killer B's on the cheap?

Would HAVE. For fuck's sake, would HAVE. You look like a goddamn moron when you say "would of."

Also, and this is a serious question, do you seriously think there is any team in baseball that would take four starts as evidence that a guy should be paid six million dollars to be the tenth man in line to start? Because that's what you're saying.
(Thank you, that was driving me nuts).

 

E5 Yaz

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I don't know what people really expected in a market that has shown itself to be heavily lopsided toward sellers, particular with regards to pitching. What would you have preferred, knowing what the market has borne, what the upcoming FA market looks like, and the window of time in which the Red Sox have the killer B's on the cheap?
They wanted the Padres to take Trey Ball
 

DJnVa

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Honest question I haven't seen much of Pomeranz. What exactly did we just acquire it feels like Porcello 2.0.
277 posts into this thread, and you admit you've hardly seen Pomeranz, yet you've had pretty strong opinions on the deal.

Weird.
 

Devizier

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I know Espinoza has a crazy high ceiling, but he's 18 years old. There is a huge amount of risk between now and his big league debut.

I like this trade. Pomeranz is likely the best pitcher that will be traded during the season, and the Red Sox had to pay to get him.
 

soxhop411

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Interesting...

“@pgammo: Pads official Monday:”Pomeranz turnaround came when Darren Balsley helped him learn to go armside in to righthanders, like Jon Lester.“ He..”

“@pgammo: @pgammo became a totally different pitcher. Lefties who consistently bury righthanded hitters in are few are far between.””


 

Adrian's Dome

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I don't have to watch every Pomeranz start to know they overpaid. Just like they overpaid for Kimbrel.
So you readily admit you know nothing of Drew Pomeranz, but somehow you can appreciably compare his value to an 18 year old prospect? Must be a nice skill to have.

Did you also know nothing of Kimbrel in the offseason?
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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But the point still is that he's an all-star! This year! I hate to lose Espinosa as much as amyone, but in addition to getting a needed quality starting pitcher (again, an ALL-STAR), they just reportedly signed Groome and Kopech is hitting 100+ and dominating in his return to action. I'll also mention that Espin has struggled this year, somewhat unexpectedly. The fact that he is only 18 in middle A with his stuff is very impressive but still, I wonder if his value was lowered a bit in the organization's eyes because of this year's struggles
What is "middle A"?
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Gut reaction was to hate this, but then someone on the first page of the thread mentioned they disliked the deal since we need Espinoza given how bad the RS have been at developing pitchers, at which point I realized I liked the deal.

I don't think there's any Moncada deal I could possibly like, within reason. Benintendi is close.