I wasn't able to watch the game yesterday - did Sale throw any in the bullpen once he was lifted? He didn't throw too many pitches in his 3 innings.
I'm pretty sure there's no IP qualification for the Cy (otherwise how could relievers win it?), only for the ERA title.150 IP now. No chance he gets to 162? Is that really all that is between him and the Cy?
I wonder how long it will be before he's traded to the MFY. I'm only kind of kidding. He's exactly the kind of pitcher the Yankees should be willing to back up their ample-sized minor league system for. 25 years old. Dynamic. Lefty. Highly successful in the toughest division in baseball. Excellent against the best teams. If I'm the Yankees, I offer Chance Adams, Andujar, and Sanchez (maybe another prospect as well if that's what it takes) in exchange for Snell and Ramos. Adams probably will develop into a quality major league pitcher, Andujar has an extremely high ceiling, and Sanchez we know is a 35+ hr type catcher. All very affordable, and when they get expensive, Tampa can just turn around and flip them. Ramos would be a great fit for the Yankees and of course Snell gives them a total stud.I'm pretty sure there's no IP qualification for the Cy (otherwise how could relievers win it?), only for the ERA title.
But I don't think Sale gets the nod anyway. Volume does count. I think if Snell can win one more game and get to 20, it's his. And it might be his even if he doesn't. Which is as it should be--he's had an amazing season. What really stands out for me is that he's been strongest against the strongest competition: he has a record of 9-2 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.99 WHIP against the 5 AL playoff teams, who have collectively averaged just over 5 runs a game. That's absurd.
Are you referring to Wilson Ramos? Because he's on the Phillies.I wonder how long it will be before he's traded to the MFY. I'm only kind of kidding. He's exactly the kind of pitcher the Yankees should be willing to back up their ample-sized minor league system for. 25 years old. Dynamic. Lefty. Highly successful in the toughest division in baseball. Excellent against the best teams. If I'm the Yankees, I offer Chance Adams, Andujar, and Sanchez (maybe another prospect as well if that's what it takes) in exchange for Snell and Ramos. Adams probably will develop into a quality major league pitcher, Andujar has an extremely high ceiling, and Sanchez we know is a 35+ hr type catcher. All very affordable, and when they get expensive, Tampa can just turn around and flip them. Ramos would be a great fit for the Yankees and of course Snell gives them a total stud.
Not that I want to give NY any ideas, but if I'm Cashman, I'm pushing hard for a deal for Snell.
Probably RomoAre you referring to Wilson Ramos? Because he's on the Phillies.
Are you referring to Wilson Ramos? Because he's on the Phillies.
No, I'm totally embarrassed but I was referring to Wilson Ramos. I remember he was with Tampa earlier this year (he killed the Sox at the end of April) and totally forgot that he got traded to Philly.Probably Romo
Do you expect him to go 5 vs Cleveland (I do) and then 7 vs. Baltimore ( I definitely do not)150 IP now. No chance he gets to 162? Is that really all that is between him and the Cy?
They wouldn't want to. But they'd do it because the package they'd get back would be incredible.Snell will not be arb eligible until 2020 and a free agent until 2023 - why would the Rays want to trade him to strengthen what will likely be their prime divisional contender for the next half-decade?
Even then, your package seems pretty light. I'm not sure the Rays would even want Sanchez. He's going to be just as expensive as Snell, is a poor defensive catcher and has struggled mightily this year. Chance Adams might develop into a back end rotation starter but is hardly a sure thing. Andujar is definitely a great get.They wouldn't want to. But they'd do it because the package they'd get back would be incredible.
But like 99% of things suggested on SoSH, it likely won't happen.
It's not like RAA and WAR don't take opposition and volume into account. And Sale has had a better year by those and about every other metric except wins.But I don't think Sale gets the nod anyway. Volume does count. I think if Snell can win one more game and get to 20, it's his. And it might be his even if he doesn't. Which is as it should be--he's had an amazing season. What really stands out for me is that he's been strongest against the strongest competition: he has a record of 9-2 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.99 WHIP against the 5 AL playoff teams, who have collectively averaged just over 5 runs a game. That's absurd.
Don't get hung up on the details of the package I suggested. The Yankees have the ammo to essentially give TB whatever they want. They have tons of legit pieces they could move. Maybe a deal couldn't be brokered, but if I'm Cashman, I give it a hell of a try.Even then, your package seems pretty light. I'm not sure the Rays would even want Sanchez. He's going to be just as expensive as Snell, is a poor defensive catcher and has struggled mightily this year. Chance Adams might develop into a back end rotation starter but is hardly a sure thing. Andujar is definitely a great get.
I might be underselling Gary Sanchez and Chance Adams though. It just seems like another team could and would beat that offer for Snell. I'd guess the Rays would hold out for Torres, if not Torres and Andujar.
I get why Cashman would want to talk to the Rays, and the Tampa brass would be justified if something was willing to ridiculously overpay for Snell, but the Rays farm system is generally ranked top 5 already - if they have confidence that Snell is the real deal, they should hang onto him.Don't get hung up on the details of the package I suggested. The Yankees have the ammo to essentially give TB whatever they want. They have tons of legit pieces they could move. Maybe a deal couldn't be brokered, but if I'm Cashman, I give it a hell of a try.
Agreed. The Rays have been very good in the 2d half. They're a couple of pieces and good health away from competing next season.I get why Cashman would want to talk to the Rays, and the Tampa brass would be justified if something was willing to ridiculously overpay for Snell, but the Rays farm system is generally ranked top 5 already - if they have confidence that Snell is the real deal, they should hang onto him.
WAR takes volume of contribution into account, but only in bulk. It doesn't account for volume of high-contribution games and innings. The difference in W shouldn't matter to voters (though it probably will, to some), but the differences in GS and IP should. Snell has helped his team win a game more times, though he hasn't helped quite as much each time, on average. How do you evaluate that? I don't think WAR is a sufficient answer here. Is it more valuable to provide 7.0 WAR over 27 starts and 160 innings, or 6.5 WAR over 31 starts and 180 innings (roughly what Sale and Snell, respectively, will probably end up with*)? I'm not sure. It would be an interesting problem to try to work out.It's not like RAA and WAR don't take opposition and volume into account. And Sale has had a better year by those and about every other metric except wins.
What is the story here?Thank you MLB for making the athletes wear stupid commemorative t-shirts that made one pitcher real uncomfortable.
I believe he's referring to the White Sox and Chris Sale...What is the story here?
Ahhh, yes. Thanks.I believe he's referring to the White Sox and Chris Sale...
Does that really clear it up for you? Because I've read that post multiple times trying to figure out how that flows from the Yankees going after hitting and not pitching, and I've got nothing.Ahhh, yes. Thanks.
Well, yes, you're correct, I have no idea what was intended. And I thought it was a jersey.Does that really clear it up for you? Because I've read that post multiple times trying to figure out how that flows from the Yankees going after hitting and not pitching, and I've got nothing.
What does that mean? "Helped his team win a game more times." Snell's team record in games he's pitched is 19-9. Sale's is 17-8. So presumably Snell "helped his team win" two more times than Sale, but he "helped his team lose" one more time.WAR takes volume of contribution into account, but only in bulk. It doesn't account for volume of high-contribution games and innings. The difference in W shouldn't matter to voters (though it probably will, to some), but the differences in GS and IP should. Snell has helped his team win a game more times, though he hasn't helped quite as much each time, on average. How do you evaluate that? I don't think WAR is a sufficient answer here. Is it more valuable to provide 7.0 WAR over 27 starts and 160 innings, or 6.5 WAR over 31 starts and 180 innings (roughly what Sale and Snell, respectively, will probably end up with*)? I'm not sure. It would be an interesting problem to try to work out.
This actually confirms my point, since the team records in the two pitchers' games are essentially identical. Snell's level of excellence has been good enough to produce a .679 winning percentage, while Sale's has produced a .680. If Sale had pitched three more games and the Sox had matched their pace in the rest of his games, his team record and Snell's would be identical.What does that mean? "Helped his team win a game more times." Snell's team record in games he's pitched is 19-9. Sale's is 17-8. So presumably Snell "helped his team win" two more times than Sale, but he "helped his team lose" one more time.
Uh, right. So you're basically basing your vote on wins. So for those keeping score at home, Savin Hillbilly thinks we can judge a CF's defense by the difference between his team's record in games with him in and out of the lineup, and we can judge a pitcher's value by the team's winning percentage in games in which he appears.This actually confirms my point, since the team records in the two pitchers' games are essentially identical. Snell's level of excellence has been good enough to produce a .679 winning percentage, while Sale's has produced a .680. If Sale had pitched three more games and the Sox had matched their pace in the rest of his games, his team record and Snell's would be identical.
In other words, being as much better than Snell as Sale has been has not translated into a higher rate of success for his team, so by that measure, Sale's superiority is superfluous, and therefore Snell's advantage in GS should be decisive.
Last I checked, the Cy Young Award wasn't called the "Pitcher WAR Leader" Award or that the only criteria should be a statistical approximation that includes significant error bars.Uh, right. So you're basically basing your vote on wins. So for those keeping score at home, Savin Hillbilly thinks we can judge a CF's defense by the difference between his team's record in games with him in and out of the lineup, and we can judge a pitcher's value by the team's winning percentage in games in which he appears.
And I never said it was. But Snell has pitched only 14 more innings than Sale. And Sale has bettered him in every stat except for wins. Meanwhile, Snell has pitched 38 fewer innings than Verlander, who has also pitched better than Snell according to most metrics. So basically it's wins.Last I checked, the Cy Young Award wasn't called the "Pitcher WAR Leader" Award or that the only criteria should be a statistical approximation that includes significant error bars.
There is some value to innings pitched; more innings by the ace of the staff means fewer innings pitched by a lesser pitcher coming out of the bullpen. It's not always a slam dunk that the gap in innings will be filled by a replacement level pitcher.
Excuse me, you brought team W-L record into it. All I said was that it was possible that being (let's say) an 8.5 pitcher on a 1-10 scale for 28 games might be more valuable than being a 9 pitcher for 25.Uh, right. So you're basically basing your vote on wins. So for those keeping score at home, Savin Hillbilly thinks we can judge a CF's defense by the difference between his team's record in games with him in and out of the lineup, and we can judge a pitcher's value by the team's winning percentage in games in which he appears.
No, I didn't. I was trying to interpret what you meant by "helped his team win a game more times." If you meant something other than team wins in appearances, I'd love to hear it.Excuse me, you brought team W-L record into it. All I said was that it was possible that being (let's say) an 8.5 pitcher on a 1-10 scale for 28 games might be more valuable than being a 9 pitcher for 25.
I was talking in WAR terms, i.e., without reference to actual game outcomes. I just meant that by making more starts, Snell had brought his way-above-average performance to bear on more of his team's games than Sale has brought his way-way-above-average performance, and that this might make him more valuable in a way that I'm not sure WAR will account for.No, I didn't. I was trying to interpret what you meant by "helped his team win a game more times." If you meant something other than team wins in appearances, I'd love to hear it.
Depends on how you're defining performance. In terms of runs allowed, they're quite close: 2.04 per 9 for Sale vs. 2.20 for Snell. If you're looking at FIP (or at K/BB, which is related), the difference gets much bigger, of course.If we were talking about the difference between Sale and Verlander, where Sale has pitched less than 75% of the innings it might be persuasive, but not here, where the difference in IP facially pales in comparison to the difference in performance.
Right, and if you take the average of his fWAR and bWAR, which are derived from those, Snell is behind not only Sale, over whom he enjoys a small innings advantage, but others, including Verlander and Kluber to whom he has a bigger innings deficit.Depends on how you're defining performance. In terms of runs allowed, they're quite close: 2.04 per 9 for Sale vs. 2.20 for Snell. If you're looking at FIP (or at K/BB, which is related), the difference gets much bigger, of course.
There's no question Snell loses the fWAR battle, which makes sense because there's no question Sale is the better pitcher. But we're talking about the Cy Young award, which is not given to the best talent but the best performance, and for that purpose RA/9 is far more relevant than FIP.Right, and if you take the average of his fWAR and bWAR, which are derived from those, Snell is behind not only Sale, over whom he enjoys a small innings advantage, but others, including Verlander and Kluber to whom he has a bigger innings deficit.
It’s not the best luck and defense award, it’s the best pitcher award.There's no question Snell loses the fWAR battle, which makes sense because there's no question Sale is the better pitcher. But we're talking about the Cy Young award, which is not given to the best talent but the best performance, and for that purpose RA/9 is far more relevant than FIP.
I think saying the difference between FIP and RA/9 is a simple matter of "luck and defense" is an exaggeration. There is such a thing as being good at inducing bad contact and at pitching to make use of the defense behind you.It’s not the best luck and defense award, it’s the best pitcher award.
Right, and not first in any of those things. And we're getting close to beating this to death, but he's second in baseball-reference's WAR. He's 9th in fangraphs' WAR. For that matter, he's not even second based on fangraphs' WAR calculated from runs against, excluding defense.Besides being 1st in wins, Snell is 2nd in ERA, 2nd in WAR, 4th in WHIP, 8th in k's, 7th in k/9, 2nd in ERA+, 4th in WPA, etc. He's having a fantastic season, that is absolutely CY worthy. Sale is too, but he took a month+ off. I think that means something too.
No, I don;t think it does show my bias. It shows that he hasn't been any better at "inducing bad contact" this year than he's been in prior years. He's got his highest rate of hard contact (right around league average), highest exit velocity, highest rate of barreled balls, and yet his lowest ever BABIP. He's been very fortunate.Also, talking about Snell's "fluctuating BABIP from year to year" kind of shows your bias. The guy had a total of 218 Major League innings, over two years, under his belt coming into this season. There's not much sample size there to make any real judgments about him based on that (not to mention that it's obviously irrelevant to the Cy Young voting this year). In 2015, he had a 49 consecutive inning scoreless streak and was named Minor League Player of the Year with a 1.41 ERA over 25 starts. In the minors, it took him about 2.5 years to get his legs and start dominating, and he's basically doing the same thing at the major league level. Kid's the real deal, and if he finishes strong and wins the award, he's most definitely a deserving winner.
Runner on first, 1 down, Mike Trout on deck, would you rather a K or a weak grounder to short on the first pitch?It really isn’t debatable that it’s better to strike guys out than allow balls in play.
Is this a real question? A K has a 0% chance of hurting you. No seeing eye grounders, no possible boot by a fielder or an advancing of the runner. Sure a double play would be super but there is a non zero chance that something could go wrong. If you throw the third strike past him, there us no way he can hurt you.Runner on first, 1 down, Mike Trout on deck, would you rather a K or a weak grounder to short on the first pitch?
You don't need a savvy marketer to tell you that Snell has provided the most WAR per dollar given he hasn't hit arbitration yet.Some savvy marketer should come up with a best value per dollar economy award for the pitcher who provides the most WAR per dollar and then maybe we can finally beat the last bit of romance out of this game.
Did you happen to read past the "and"?You don't need a savvy marketer to tell you that Snell has provided the most WAR per dollar given he hasn't hit arbitration yet.
Sure, but how much better? How much does the difference between a 10.7 and a 13.3 K/9 matter? How do you weigh that against the GS/IP difference?It really isn’t debatable that it’s better to strike guys out than allow balls in play, or that it’s better not to walk guys.
I said volume matters. I didn't say it was the only thing that mattered, or that it mattered more than anything else.Look, you started this all by saying volume matters. If it does, and you’re going to give the AL award to a starter with fewer than 200 IP for the first time in history, it seems to me it should be someone who was actually the best in the league in at least one pitching category that’s not wildly team dependent like wins. Strikeouts, K/9, K:BB, FIP...something.
His BABIP has "fluctuated" in the same sense that Mookie's walk rate has "fluctuated" -- i.e., it's gotten steadily better (as has his BB/9).And his fluctuating BABIP from year to year, as well as his 35.9% hard-hit ball percentage this year suggests he's not as "good at inducing bad contact" as you imply.