Realignment 2021: UT, OU to SEC; UH, UCF, UC, BYU to Big 12

StuckOnYouk

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 26, 2006
3,264
CT
The ACC has a GOR in place for 15 more years. I think the B1G was thinking about UVA and UNC at one point when expansion was hot.
 

axx

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
7,100
The ACC has a GOR in place for 15 more years. I think the B1G was thinking about UVA and UNC at one point when expansion was hot.
Well if that's true, then there's no reason to blow it up right now. Could even add Kansas for basketball if you wanted.
 

OCST

Sunny von Bulow
SoSH Member
Jan 10, 2004
20,731
The 718
I think it would help the popular ACC schools if they went to the Big 10 but I don't think it's essential. One thing is that it looks like the Big 10 is adamant about only AAU schools. I think it's entirely possible that there's no further realignment.



Rutgers def isn't going anywhere because of the NY market.
Interest in Rutgers sports in NY is somewhere between that for Div II College of Staten Island and tree lichen.
 

Zososoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 30, 2009
7,185
South of North
I think it would help the popular ACC schools if they went to the Big 10 but I don't think it's essential. One thing is that it looks like the Big 10 is adamant about only AAU schools. I think it's entirely possible that there's no further realignment.



Rutgers def isn't going anywhere because of the NY market.
This gets said often, but is it true? Rutgers itself doesn't have a lot of fans. If it's merely abou
The ACC has a GOR in place for 15 more years. I think the B1G was thinking about UVA and UNC at one point when expansion was hot.
Gastro-Oesophageal Reflux??

If the Big 10 is serious about AAU requirements (which I don't agree with), then the PAC 12 AAU schools are: Arizona, Cal, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, and Washington; and the ACC AAU schools are Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pitt, & Virginia. I would love a conference with all of those schools + the Big 10 in it.

One huge factor regarding realignment has to be potential penalties if a league dissolves. This is what I heard yesterday on a podcast. IOW, Texas and OU are ready to each pay a $70M penalty for leaving (with the SEC likely chipping in), but those penalties may be mooted or reduced through negotiation if the league disbands/dissolves. The podcast also discussed that ESPN would be eager to have the Big 12 fall apart, but I didn't quite follow why that would be the case.

In any event, if the PAC 12, Big 10, and ACC formed a non-SEC superconference, I have to think they'd be able to work something out for the schools that don't make it in.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 23, 2001
8,150
So basically, the 32 team SEC and the 64 team "Big PACC 10/12 plus some others" will just replace the NCAA at some point?
 

Awesome Fossum

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
2,296
Austin, TX
It definitely feels like we're moving toward two mega conferences, with the SEC/ESPN and Big 10/FOX serving as the foundations. Just a matter of which of the other conferences get pulled apart in the process.

As much as I'd love it as a fan of Navy, there's no chance this ends with more teams in the top level. I think the last major shuffle took us from 66 to 65 (with TCU and Utah getting promoted and UConn, USF, and Cincinnati getting relegated). This isn't expansion; it's consolidation.
 

Kremlin Watcher

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
4,512
Houston, TX
I have thought for years that CFB was moving toward four 16-team super-conferences, but I'm not so sure about that any longer. The big land-grant state schools that dominate the Power 5 at some point are going to exclude smaller, private schools and go it on their own. I think the private schools that will be in the upcoming CFB Super League are USC, Notre Dame, Miami, Stanford, Wake Forest, Syracuse, BC. I guess Vandy will remain in the SEC and Northwestern in the Big 10 as legacy schools. Schools like TCU, Baylor, SMU, Tulane, etc. are going to be the losers. Borderline schools like Texas Tech and Kansas State will really have to scrap for position.
 

axx

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
7,100
This gets said often, but is it true? Rutgers itself doesn't have a lot of fans. If it's merely abou
My understanding is that having Rutgers got the Big Ten Network on standard? cable in NYC.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Staff member
Dope
I have thought for years that CFB was moving toward four 16-team super-conferences, but I'm not so sure about that any longer. The big land-grant state schools that dominate the Power 5 at some point are going to exclude smaller, private schools and go it on their own. I think the private schools that will be in the upcoming CFB Super League are USC, Notre Dame, Miami, Stanford, Wake Forest, Syracuse, BC. I guess Vandy will remain in the SEC and Northwestern in the Big 10 as legacy schools. Schools like TCU, Baylor, SMU, Tulane, etc. are going to be the losers. Borderline schools like Texas Tech and Kansas State will really have to scrap for position.
I think the Pac-12 is more resilient than you do, but I agree with a lot of this. Once they are done strip-mining the Big 12, what’s keeping the SEC and B1G from turning to the ACC? If the B1G poaches UVA and UNC and the SEC poaches FSU and Clemson, I’m not sure what’s left of the ACC is better than the remnants of the Big 12 plus a couple teams cherry-picked from the AAC.

Ten years from now, I think we have three major conferences with perhaps 54 member schools, and two or three lesser conferences fighting for scraps in a middle tier (below the P3, but above conferences like the MAC). The big on-field (as opposed to financial) winners in this scenario are some of your better current G5 programs who end up in that middle tier, where a conference championship probably is good for a berth in the expanded playoff, and the basketball competition is on par with the current Big East (though obviously without the major markets the BE has).
 

Awesome Fossum

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
2,296
Austin, TX
The Pac-12, Big Ten and ACC are engaging in high-level discussions about an alliance, sources tell The Athletic.

Talks have centered around not just a scheduling alliance in football but in broader cooperation, according to sources in the three conferences. Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff, Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren and ACC commissioner Jim Phillips have been having conversations for several weeks.
https://theathletic.com/news/big-ten-pac-12-acc-in-discussions-about-forming-alliance-sources/1Fv1mfs4guai

View: https://twitter.com/DanWolken/status/1426361972120080387
 

canderson

Mr. Brightside
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
29,966
Harrisburg, Pa.
The Big 10, ACC and Pac 12 have announced an alignment ... that makes no sense and doesn't even sound like the conferences are fully on board. There's no contract, it's just a verbal agreement too.

And it's a scheduling alliance that won't even begin until like 2032.
 

Kremlin Watcher

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
4,512
Houston, TX
The Athletic article alludes to UH being the school that not everyone is on board with. What's Baylor's beef with Houston?
Baylor and Houston have been enemies since the old SWC days. Houston used to be a heavily black, urban commuter college. Baylor is a lily-white Baptist school that couldn’t compete with the Coogs in a lot of areas and they built up a lot of resentment over that. When the SWC broke up and we formed the Big XII, Baylor worked tirelessly to ensure that Houston would not be a part of it, and it really hurt Houston’s recruiting in all sports. But Houston has transformed into a legitimate national-scale university with a huge student body and a lot of strong academic and professional programs - a huge threat to Baylor for students and student-athletes. It’s ridiculous that U of H is not in a P5 conference, and I suspect Baylor doesn‘t have the juice to exclude them. It would be a real boost to a dying conference but those strident idiots in Waco will wail like schoolchildren to try to get their way.
 

Humphrey

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2010
1,766
Is it about TV markets or has that changed? Houston is kind of redundant in that regard.
 
Last edited:

Captaincoop

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
12,340
Santa Monica, CA
Baylor and Houston have been enemies since the old SWC days. Houston used to be a heavily black, urban commuter college. Baylor is a lily-white Baptist school that couldn’t compete with the Coogs in a lot of areas and they built up a lot of resentment over that. When the SWC broke up and we formed the Big XII, Baylor worked tirelessly to ensure that Houston would not be a part of it, and it really hurt Houston’s recruiting in all sports. But Houston has transformed into a legitimate national-scale university with a huge student body and a lot of strong academic and professional programs - a huge threat to Baylor for students and student-athletes. It’s ridiculous that U of H is not in a P5 conference, and I suspect Baylor doesn‘t have the juice to exclude them. It would be a real boost to a dying conference but those strident idiots in Waco will wail like schoolchildren to try to get their way.
Some of that may be true, but Houston isn't threatening Baylor for students. Baylor is way more selective and recruits a totally different type of student.

Given that none of the 4 remaining power conferences are going to want Baylor, it would be wise to be on board with adding Houston or whoever else might keep the Big XII viable.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Staff member
Dope
Some of that may be true, but Houston isn't threatening Baylor for students. Baylor is way more selective and recruits a totally different type of student.

Given that none of the 4 remaining power conferences are going to want Baylor, it would be wise to be on board with adding Houston or whoever else might keep the Big XII viable.
You’re probably right, but there has been some chatter about the Pac-12 expanding to 16 teams, with 3 of the 4 new teams being from Texas (and BYU being the 4th). I think Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor would be the schools heading west in that (unlikely imo) scenario.
 

canderson

Mr. Brightside
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
29,966
Harrisburg, Pa.
You’re probably right, but there has been some chatter about the Pac-12 expanding to 16 teams, with 3 of the 4 new teams being from Texas (and BYU being the 4th). I think Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor would be the schools heading west in that (unlikely imo) scenario.
I don’t see the PAC 12 inviting two Christian schools.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Staff member
Dope
OK State would be in way before either TCU or Baylor.
Why would the Pac-12 take Oklahoma State? They are only going to expand if they think it will grow the pie enough to justify everyone getting a slightly smaller slice. BYU would do that. A focused expansion that created critical mass in Texas might or might not do that. Adding Oklahoma State would not.
 

Ale Xander

Lacks black ink
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
40,792
Why would the Pac-12 take Oklahoma State? They are only going to expand if they think it will grow the pie enough to justify everyone getting a slightly smaller slice. BYU would do that. A focused expansion that created critical mass in Texas might or might not do that. Adding Oklahoma State would not.
Higher enrollment and lack of religious history/affiliation. And to continue the "conference of champions," legacy, as tOtherSU has more championships than anyone outside Stanford, UCLA, and USC.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Staff member
Dope
Does BYU require chapel? I honestly have no idea, I thought it was a very loose relationship …
I’m not the right person to answer detailed questions, but BYU’s relationship with the LDS Church is a lot closer than the relationship between Notre Dame or Georgetown and the Vatican. I’ve read that students are expected to conduct themselves in accordance with certain aspects of Mormon teaching (regarding alcohol, sex, etc.), but I don’t know if that includes required attendance at religious services. (My guess is that it doesn’t.)

Edit: I doubt TCU or Baylor requires students to attend religious services these days either.
 

canderson

Mr. Brightside
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
29,966
Harrisburg, Pa.
I’m not the right person to answer detailed questions, but BYU’s relationship with the LDS Church is a lot closer than the relationship between Notre Dame or Georgetown and the Vatican. I’ve read that students are expected to conduct themselves in accordance with certain aspects of Mormon teaching (regarding alcohol, sex, etc.), but I don’t know if that includes required attendance at religious services. (My guess is that it doesn’t.)

Edit: I doubt TCU or Baylor requires students to attend religious services these days either.
Baylor definitely does - plus theology classes. https://www.baylor.edu/spirituallife/index.php?id=870498

TCU requires one religious class, but no chapel. It’s much less strict.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Staff member
Dope
Baylor definitely does - plus theology classes. https://www.baylor.edu/spirituallife/index.php?id=870498
Thanks for the knowledge. Guess I made an unwarranted assumption based on someone I know whose son went to Baylor.

Back on topic, do folks really think the Pac-12 cares about religious affiliation? I think they’d snap up BYU in a cocaine heartbeat if there was a second school that it also made sense to add.
 

Awesome Fossum

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
2,296
Austin, TX
Is it about TV markets or has that changed? Houston is kind of redundant in that regard.
The conventional wisdom is that this has changed. In the last round, it was all about whether your school could force a cable carrier to add the Big 10 network (or whatever) to its basic offerings. So Rutgers didn't need to deliver the entire NYC market all by themselves, they just needed to add enough to tip the scale.

This time around, it's about the audience your brand can command on its own. If the Pac 12 cuts a secondary deal with Apple+ or whoever, how many subscriptions is your school bringing to the table?

Back on topic, do folks really think the Pac-12 cares about religious affiliation? I think they’d snap up BYU in a cocaine heartbeat if there was a second school that it also made sense to add.
I think if BYU makes sense with a partner, they make sense on their own. But yes, I think the Pac 12 is definitely hyper aware of their brand of AAU/state schools. Obviously they'd trip over themselves for Notre Dame and I guess I could see them holding their nose for TCU if that's what made sense, but BYU and Baylor seem a bridge too far.

The Pac 12 is in such a weird spot, where they'll never have the ceiling of the SEC and Big 10 because they can't operate effectively in the early TV windows, but they don't have the floor of the Big 12 (which is total extinction) because I think everyone values the sport remaining national. So the best move (imo) is sitting tight and waiting for a true partnership with whatever shakes out in the East. The question I'd be asking of any expansion candidate if I'm the Pac 12 is, would the media/public tolerate a new world order without school X being in the top tier? And I think for BYU, despite all their strengths, the answer is definitely yes.
 

Awesome Fossum

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
2,296
Austin, TX
I expect the American to just reload, but what might make more sense is to partner with the Mountain West and run the regular season champions against one another during championship week. Or get really creative and work with CUSA and the Sun Belt and come up with some sort of promotion/relegation scheme. Or both! I don't know. Desperate times.
 

Humphrey

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2010
1,766
Is this enough to keep the 8 Big 12 leftovers happy or do you figure a couple of them will look elsewhere? I almost think they added 4 because they anticipate another pair will leave.
 

wonderland

lurker
Jul 20, 2005
363
I think a lot of the me schools are stuck. The only two schools with hope, I think, are West Virginia to the ACC and Kansas to the Big 10 but that’s tough actually seeing happen.

12 is a really crappy number for a conference. Should be 10 like before so everybody plays everybody.
 

axx

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
7,100
It'd be nice if a conference with 12 in it's name has 12 members.

I think a lot of the me schools are stuck. The only two schools with hope, I think, are West Virginia to the ACC and Kansas to the Big 10 but that’s tough actually seeing happen.
Kansas has been so bad in football I doubt the Big 10 is interested.
 

Ale Xander

Lacks black ink
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
40,792
It'd be nice if a conference with 12 in it's name has 12 members.



Kansas has been so bad in football I doubt the Big 10 is interested.
They belong more than Rutgers though. Based on geography, culture, and non-FB prowess. And there is the basketball reason of competing with ACC
 

Awesome Fossum

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
2,296
Austin, TX
Is this enough to keep the 8 Big 12 leftovers happy or do you figure a couple of them will look elsewhere? I almost think they added 4 because they anticipate another pair will leave.
If someone gets an offer from a more stable conference -- most definitely the Big 10; almost certainly the Pac 12 and ACC -- they're going to take it. There's nothing to be done about that. The big question is whether this is enough to keep the Big 12 afloat as a power conference when the next CFP television contract comes up.
 

Joe D Reid

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
3,652
Alameda, CA
Per the article, Maryland doesn't have one either. My guess is that they don't provide final copies of the agreement to public universities subject to public records/freedom of information laws that could lead to the contract being disclosed. I don't know the various state laws to know whether that's viable; to use a legal term, it is at the very least suss.
 

LoweTek

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
May 30, 2005
1,913
Central Florida
Being local, I'm happy for UCF. They have come a long, long way since the start of the program. Now they get a chance to schedule and play more marquis opponents and have the opportunity to prove themselves. I can remember going to their games early on with about 1,500 other people. Good for them.
 

Vinho Tinto

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 9, 2003
6,431
Auburn, MA
“Right now, they've shown a willingness to engage in all kinds of accounting tricks to, you know, suit their own priorities and to hide what they've been doing.”

Fraud isn’t an accounting trick.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
23,792
Per the article, Maryland doesn't have one either. My guess is that they don't provide final copies of the agreement to public universities subject to public records/freedom of information laws that could lead to the contract being disclosed. I don't know the various state laws to know whether that's viable; to use a legal term, it is at the very least suss.
Probably correct guess. And I would assume outside counsel has a copy of the contract.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
3,685
Per the article, Maryland doesn't have one either. My guess is that they don't provide final copies of the agreement to public universities subject to public records/freedom of information laws that could lead to the contract being disclosed. I don't know the various state laws to know whether that's viable; to use a legal term, it is at the very least suss.
LSU hid Les Miles' lawsuit settlements from public records requests by having their law firm hold a copy and not the University.
 

LoweTek

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
May 30, 2005
1,913
Central Florida
For sure, remembering when they used to play in that dump the Citrus Bowl for years.
When they first started it was still the Tangerine Bowl! I remember going to the Don Jonas (first head coach) games. The entire stadium was aluminum benches. On a cold day or night it was impossible to be comfortable. They drew pretty well, as many as 14k in the early years.

Years later I joined a local country club at which Jonas was also a member. I used to see him all the time. Well into his 70's by then he would walk hunched over and struck me as a very short guy for someone who played years of pro and semi-pro football. Everyone called him "Coach" and he seemed very content with it.

In short, UCF has come a long way and it's always good to see a program put the work in and reach their goals.
 

Ale Xander

Lacks black ink
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
40,792
That stadium, Citrus Bowl, is the worst college football stadium experience I've ever had, when you combine the outside and inside. (2019 Camping World Bowl).