Real Life Fantasy Golf - Following Rob

[cshea]

Travelers
Rocket Mortgage
John Deere
Barbasol
3M Open
Barracuda
Wyndham

He'll definitely get into the 2 oppo's (Barbasol, Barracuda). The John Deere and Wyndham will be big weeks for him. Those are essentially oppo's fields but full points, and he played well at Wyndham last year. Travelers, Rocket Mortgage and 3M...we'll see. Travelers is fairly popular for a regular tour stop but it's the week after a major on the opposite coast. 3M is also the week after the Open so should be room to play there. The Rocket Mortgage is right in between the two Open's. He could get squeezed out of that one.

 

[underhandtofirst]

He is in the field at travelers. Was 2nd alternate and now has a spot. All those extra points help moving up the reshuffle list a couple spots.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

+1 today, 9 off the pace (so far, leader is on 13). T-96th

 

[underhandtofirst]

+1 finish, cut was-2. tough weekend with the putter. He chipped in a couple times yesterday and was good around the greens.
He is in the rocket mortgage field next weekend so that's a positive.

 

[cshea]

Looks like an MC at the Rocket Mortgage. +2 through 13 today, probably has to get to -3 to play the weekend.

Big one next week at the John Deere. Usually the weakest field among regular events. He really needs a top 5 to get to within striking distance of 125.

 

[underhandtofirst]

-1 through 2. Need to go low this week.

 

[underhandtofirst]

Was +2 after 9 then caught fire with 4 birdies in 5 holes to finish at -2 in T52.
2nd round in the morning. Looks like he will need another -2 to play the weekend.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

-4 thru 13 so far, T20 at -6. Projected cut is -3 . . .

 

[cshea]

He made another birdie on 5. -7 for the tournament and T14. Another birdie or two in the final 4 holes would be huge.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

He made another birdie on 5. -7 for the tournament and T14. Another birdie or two in the final 4 holes would be huge.

Knowing Rob as I (and most of us here do now), more likely he'll bogey a couple coming in, and we'll have to sweat the cut line this afternoon.

 

[cshea]

Knowing Rob as I (and most of us here do now), more likely he'll bogey a couple coming in, and we'll have to sweat the cut line this afternoon.

Missed the green on back to back holes. Got up and down on 6 we'll see what happens at 7. Looks like he is short sided, but tough to tell based on the shotlink diagram.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

Knowing Rob as I (and most of us here do now), more likely he'll bogey a couple coming in, and we'll have to sweat the cut line this afternoon.

I'm glad you said this and not me.

 

[cshea]

He did bogey 8 to drop back to -6, T20. Then on his last hole, he hit a dart from 204 yards to 23 inches on 9 that got him back to -7 and in with a round of 66, T14 though that'll fallback to T20ish by the end of the day. He probably needs 2 more 66's to make some serious money/points. T14 projects him up to 147.

Tommy Fleetwood is currently 125th with 345 points. Rob is 156 with 218 points, that's 127 behind. That's a solo 4th or better in a regular tournament, which he's got 2.5 left (this one, 3M, Wyndham). The two alternates it's a solo 2 or better, or two top 5's would get him ~130 points.

The 150 mark is another target though. Finishing 126-150 would get him conditional PGA Tour status next year (entry into the shitty ones nobody plays) and fully exempt on the KFT. 126-200 would get him into the KFT finals where he could try to retain his card by finishing in the top 25 of the money list on the KFT finals, which he's achieved before. He's also finished 26th.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

WBZ mentioned Rob on the sports report on the late news last night, being repeated this AM, congratulating him on his T 24 position going into the weekend

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

+2 today, T 56th

he never ever does anything nice, and easy.

 

[underhandtofirst]

Four events to go during the regular season. He’s got an uphill climb, but there is still a path forward. Another Puerto Rico like finish would be helpful.

Barbasol (opposite The Open Championship)
3M
--week off for the Olympics--
Barracuda (opposite WGC event)
Wyndham

Current FedEx points:

• 125th place is at 357
• 150th place is at 255
• Rob is at 223

After the Masters:

• 125th was at 226 (increase of 10 points per week since then)
• 150th was at 142. (increase of 8.7 points per week since then

Those rates could increase slightly with the additional opposite field events.

Let’s assume slight rate increases. For 125th use 12 per week and 150th use 10 per week.
Target point totals (with rate increases):

• 125th = 405
• 150th = 295

Weekly place targets:

• 125th needs 46 points per week (19th place for a regular event and 9th for oppo)
• 150th needs 18 points per week (38th place for a regular event and 29th for oppo)

Single event targets:

• 125th needs a 3rd place in a regular event or 2nd in an oppo event plus 17 more points
• 150th needs a 10th place in a regular event or 4th in an oppo event

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Not a competitive field this week, rob was E yesterday, tied for 80th, below cut line projection.

Needs a small number today

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

-1 thru 17, cut is expected to be -2

 

[BigMike]

Sadly Brutal finishes both days. Yesterday it was a 3 putt from 26 feet on the par 5 18 for a bogey. Today it was 3 putt from 8 feet on his 17th hole for double, which took him from above the cut line to below, followed by a bogey on 18 from the near side bunker

 

[cshea]

Last week of the regular season. Rob is 164th on the FedEx Cup list with 225 points. Bo Hoag is holding down 125th at 428 points. Solo 2nd (300 points) or better is the only way to get there. Solo 3rd only nets 190 points.

150th is at 287 points, 62 points ahead. 12th is roughly 65 points, so a top 10 probably gets him close to that mark. That would give him conditional PGA Tour status next year and full status on the KFT. He's still in good shape to make the KFT finals regardless of what happens this weekend. That would give him a chance to earn his card back.

 

[Blundatola]

The tweet below shows the finish needed for Rob and everyone else on the playoff bubble:

View: https://twitter.com/willgraygc/status/1425202973060304896?s=21

 

[cshea]

Out (started on 10) in 32, -3. T23. Leader at -8.

 

[cshea]

Shoots a -4 66, currently T12.

Good spot here. 4 shots back of the leader, 2 back of 2nd. Certainly in play for a top 10 which may get him above 150.

 

[tmracht]

Shoots a -4 66, currently T12.

Good spot here. 4 shots back of the leader, 2 back of 2nd. Certainly in play for a top 10 which may get him above 150.

Oh man that's a great start!

 

[cshea]

71 today to fall back to -3 and T45. Right on the cut with the afternoon wave going out. I think it'll hold up and he'll play the weekend but it's no guarantee and obviously not what he was looking for today.

 

[Doug Beerabelli]

Rob ended up 161st in FedEx Cup Standings. For those who missed out on the Top 125, per Golf Magazine:

"..those who didn’t get into the top 125 and don’t have other exemptions to fall back on — previous wins, career earnings, etc. — are given conditional status and have more work to do, although they still have an opportunity to regain their full status. Those who finished from 126 to 200 in the FedEx Cup standings are qualified for the Korn Ferry Tour Finals, a three-tournament series that puts that group of 75 with the top 75 from this year’s Korn Ferry Tour regular season points list. Twenty-five PGA Tour cards will be handed out to the top 25 players at the end of that series..."

 

[underhandtofirst]

Shot -4 over the first two days and made the cut -3. A repeat of his 61 a couple years ago in this tournament would be very helpful.

 

[underhandtofirst]

-4 today -8 through 3 rounds, good for T40. He was on fire with 5 birdies in 6 holes including 4 in a row through 8 today. Keep stringing together solid rounds and keep climbing. Data golf had him at 15% chance to earn his card before the 3 tournament finals. He is up tp 20% now.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

The other Andover guy, Evan Harmeling, is sitting at -10, tied for 24th in this same tourney. For those that remember, he won a Korn Ferry event last year, and made news because he wore the same outfit on Saturday and Sunday due to superstition. I know him as well, but not as close to him as I am with Rob.

Rob's brother beat my head in Friday, when he shot 71 (he bogeyed 18).

 

[cshea]

We're going to white knuckle this in again. Rob finished in T32 at -10. That puts him at T22 in the final 25 standings with 2 events left.

Harmeling also finished at -10 and is T22 in the final 25.

 

[tmracht]

I really don't get these standings but go Rob, go Evan.

 

[cshea]

I really don't get these standings but go Rob, go Evan.

The players earn points based on where they finish in a tournament. The higher the finish, the more points you get. After 3 tournaments, the 25 players with the most combined points get their PGA Tour cards for this year. This is the target for Rob and Evan. It's called the final 25.

Now, there are players in these playoff tournaments that already earned their PGA Tour card for next season based on their performance in the Korn Ferry Tour's regular season. The top 25 in regular season points on the KFT already earned their PGA Tour card for next season. Those players can still play in the playoffs to earn money and boost their priority ranking for next season on the PGA Tour. Those players don't count towards the "final 25" since they already earned their cards. So that is why Rob/Evan can finish T32 in the first tournament but be T22 in the points list after 1 event.

Hope this helps a little.

 

[tmracht]

The players earn points based on where they finish in a tournament. The higher the finish, the more points you get. After 3 tournaments, the 25 players with the most combined points get their PGA Tour cards for this year. This is the target for Rob and Evan. It's called the final 25.

Now, there are players in these playoff tournaments that already earned their PGA Tour card for next season based on their performance in the Korn Ferry Tour's regular season. The top 25 in regular season points on the KFT already earned their PGA Tour card for next season. Those players can still play in the playoffs to earn money and boost their priority ranking for next season on the PGA Tour. Those players don't count towards the "final 25" since they already earned their cards. So that is why Rob/Evan can finish T32 in the first tournament but be T22 in the points list after 1 event.

Hope this helps a little.

That was the part I was missing okay. I didn't realize the 25 that secured their spots from the last cut off we're still participating for this part okay so he doesn't need to hit top 25 each tournament realistically as long as the guys that have already done well in the regular season are placing above him! Thanks so much for the explanation.

 

[underhandtofirst]

Two years ago rob went MC, T9, T33 to end up in the top 25. 25th place had 186 points 2 years ago. Yesterday's T32 earned 38 points. A top 5 finish in one of the 3 tournaments virtually assures a player a top 25 spot.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

That was the part I was missing okay. I didn't realize the 25 that secured their spots from the last cut off we're still participating for this part okay so he doesn't need to hit top 25 each tournament realistically as long as the guys that have already done well in the regular season are placing above him! Thanks so much for the explanation.

Yep, you basically want to root for Rob (and Evan) and then root for the guys that already got their tour cards by finishing top 25 during the Korn Ferry regular season. If for example, Rob finishes 11th in one of these tournaments, but all of the guys in the top 10 that week already have their cards from the regular season, Rob will earn more points than anyone else for purposes of the "playoff top 25."

 

[cshea]

2nd leg underway. Rob has a 1:40 pm tee time in Ohio. Evan is already out and is T1 at -3 after 9 holes.

The KFT playoffs are roughly 348651354354159 times more compelling than the FedEx Cup. Wish they got more coverage.

 

[cshea]

Rob shot a -2 69 yesterday and just started round 2. He's T45 at the moment in the tournament, projected at T25 in the Final 25.

Evan was one shot better with a 68. He's also currently projected at T25 in the Final 25. Something might be wonky there as they both shot the same score last week and Evan is one shot ahead this week. So take the Final 25 projections with a grain of salt I suppose.

 

[The Napkin]

just checked in and oof. followed up the 69 with a 73 and missed the cut.

 

[cshea]

Final event underway. Rob tees off at 12:20 and is T43 in the Final 25. Evan goes off at 1:112 and is Hard to project out, but both are likely looking at needing a top 10 to break into the top 25.

Early coverage is on GC now, but will give way to the Tour Championship soon.

 

[Blundatola]

Yeah, I was looking at this earlier and Rob needs about 75 points, which means he needs a top-10 finish this week. Hopefully he’s gotten last week out of his system.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

Going into last week, I was going to set odds that Rob and Evan would be in a playoff for the final spot. Not real odds, just Rob odds.

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

Both Evan and Rob are +2 in 88th... 11 shots off the lead. This is probably it.

 

[underhandtofirst]

Probably needs at least -2 today to get to the weekend.
+1 started at T67 so not far from 65 cut line. 34 players were at -2 or better so it isnt like it is impossible for Rob or Evan (+3) to post a low number to make the cut.

 

[cshea]

Both Evan and Rob are +2 in 88th... 11 shots off the lead. This is probably it.

Not dead yet, though obviously has work to do. They are only 5 shots out of being in the top 10 so it's not out of reach with 54 holes to play.

First order of business is making the cut which likely requires an under par round.

 

[cshea]

Rob is +3 through 12. That's about it.

Evan is E today through 7 still +2.

 

[underhandtofirst]

Evan has a ton of work to do tomorrow. Probably needs low 60s to get a spot. If that doesnt work out I look forward to following them get into the top 25 before the finals next year. Thanks to all for the updates.

 

[underhandtofirst]

Rob is T1 at -10 as he finishes his 2nd round in this week's KFT event. He has 2 MC in 3 events so far this year. Nice to see him get some momentum today with 5 birdies in a row and 6 out of 7.

 

[Plantiers Wart]

Finished tied for 5th

 

[underhandtofirst]

Solid week on the KFT for Rob. -19, good for T4. He jumps to 31st in the standings. Top 25 get automatic pga card. He started +2 through 5, then he carded 7 birdies over the last 13 holes including a birdie-birdie finish. He had a few stretches of 3 and 4 birds in a row during the weekend.

 

[KnoxvilleSoxFan]

Rob’s here in town this week for the Visit Knoxville Open. Got a chance to met him today. Great guy! Heads into Sunday in 6th place, four strokes behind the leader. Will be out there tomorrow rooting for him.