Real Fantasy NFC North Discussion and Breakdown

[PBDWake]

[tablegrid= NFC North Offense ] BEARS (MysticMerlin)       LIONS (Dgilpin)       PACKERS (PBDWake)       VIKINGS (SleepyJose03)     Pos. Name PFF Snaps   Name PFF Snaps   Name PFF Snaps   Name PFF Snaps QB Tony Romo  11.0    944     Ryan Tannehill  16.4    1,035     Jay Cutler  13.5    643     EJ Manuel  (19.8)  706   RB Darren Sproles  16.1    364     LeSean McCoy  31.2    890     Jamaal Charles  22.4    870     Bryce Brown  1.9    199   RB Jonathan Stewart  0.4    110     DeAngelo Williams  2.4    475     Mark Ingram  3.7    173     Michael Bush  (3.6)  140   WR AJ Green  13.2    1,084     Desean Jackson  18.8    1,010     Jordy Nelson  23.7    1,102     Mike Williams  (4.5)  377   WR Vincent Jackson  4.8    998     Pierre Garcon  11.5    1,005     Santonio Holmes  (1.0)  515     Terrance Williams  (0.4)  700   WR Mario Manningham  (1.8)  153     Ryan Broyles  (4.8)  192     Vincent Brown  (0.7)  946     Dexter McCluster  (0.6)  601   TE Greg Olsen  (0.8)  1,012     Dustin Keller  -      -       Fred Davis  (7.6)  246     Jared Cook  (4.2)  733   UTIL Marcedes Lewis  (0.6)  596     Eddie Royal  10.7    726     Kellen Davis  (6.6)  156     Denard Robinson  (5.7)  53                                   LT Rodger Saffold  6.7    557     Joe Thomas  35.2    1,149     Duane Brown  14.6    973     Chris Hairston  -      -     LG Zane Beadles  (5.7)  1,223     Chris Kuper  (0.4)  108     Rob Sims  (1.2)  1,158     Jeff Allen  (12.0)  908   C Lyle Sendlein  0.5    1,108     Kyle Cook  (4.8)  1,071     Chris Myers  13.9    1,143     Stefen Wisniewski  10.4    930   RG Manuel Ramirez  14.9    1,223     Davin Joseph  (34.4)  1,040     Harvey Dahl  (1.1)  543     Kevin Zeitler  5.7    827   RT King Dunlap  24.4    687     Andre Smith  18.5      1,120     David Stewart  2.8    813     DJ Fluker  0.4    1,075                                   SP1 Tanner Hawkinson  -      5     Ed Dickson  (16.1)  658     Zach Sudfeld  (3.8)  191     Carson Palmer  2.5    1,105   SP2         Nate Burleson  (2.7)  511                   SP3 Charles Clay  (0.5)  868     Shaun Hill  -      2     Fred Jackson  8.7    677     David Quessenberry  -      -     SP4                 Kelvin Beachum  (3.2)  840           SP5                 Charlie Whitehurst  -      12          [/tablegrid]

 

[PBDWake]

[tablegrid= NFC North Defense ] BEARS (MysticMerlin)       LIONS (Dgilpin)       PACKERS (PBDWake)       VIKINGS (SleepyJose03)     Pos. Name PFF Snaps   Name PFF Snaps   Name PFF Snaps   Name PFF Snaps DE Chandler Jones  2.2    1,142     Chris Long  2.2    857     Mario Williams  7.7    1,027     Cameron Wake  27.2    694   DE Anthony Spencer  (0.9)  38     Chris Clemons  (7.7)  585     Adrian Clayborn  (14.2)  955     Tank Carradine  -      -     DT Sammie Lee Hill  4.8    389     Brandon Mebane  36.2    540     Antonio Smith  12.6    770     Marcell Dareus  32.4    841   DT/UTIL Terrence Knighton  24.1    604     Sedrick Ellis  -      -       Aubrayo Franklin  (1.1)  340     Johnathan Hankins  8.0    195                                   OLB Lance Briggs  0.4    565     Chad Greenway  (19.4)  1,179     Brooks Reed  (15.5)  1,038     Dont'a Hightower  5.5    870   OLB Mathias Kiwanuka  (28.1)  892     Justin Durant  (1.5)  202     Koa Misi  4.2    480     KJ Wright  2.7    756   ILB Lawrence Timmons  (3.8)  1,093     Paul Posluszny  (11.6)  1,056     DJ Williams  (3.1)  217     Brian Cushing  2.1    349   LB/UTIL Bennie Logan  0.2    488     Willie Young  7.0    801     Earl Mitchell  (1.9)  553     Margus Hunt  (8.0)  165                                   CB Captain Munnerlyn  10.1    992     Leon Hall  8.7    276     Brandon Carr  (0.9)  1,148     Casey Hayward  1.0    88   CB Javier Arenas  1.0    107     Charles Tillman  (6.5)  438     Tramon Williams  3.0    1,060     Alterraun Verner  9.5    1,023   CB Kyle Wilson  (3.8)  480     Antoine Cason  (2.2)  169     Darius Butler  (1.4)  704     Johnthan Banks  (9.5)  963   FS Devin McCourty  18.7    1,039     Louis Delmas  2.0    1,058     Tracy Porter  (12.4)  1,016     Chris Conte  (15.8)  1,045   SS Bernard Pollard  3.4    1,077     Glover Quin  6.7    1,029     Eric Berry  14.5    1,039     TJ Ward  14.5    1,124                                   K Rian Lindell  6.6       Matt Prater  63.5       Lawrence Tynes  -         Greg Zuerlein  32.7     P Brian Moorman  (4.8)     Adam Podlesh  (11.2)     Andy Lee  16.8       Brett Kern  13.9                                     SP1                               SP2 Jerraud Powers  (1.5)  1,060                     Bruce Miller  8.0    534   SP3                 Quintin Demps  (4.4)  655           SP4 Robert Ayers  8.6    515     Leon McFadden  (6.8)  247             Chris Canty  7.4    579   SP5 Joe Vellano  (2.6)  672     Bill Bentley  -      -               Leodis McKelvin  8.6    947    [/tablegrid] 

 

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

I like the decision to add snaps played. 

 

[PBDWake]

That one was all jose. Figured it'd give a better idea of who contributed often. Also, we decided to keep supplemental choices in the slots they were drafted in and let the owners decide how to distribute them

 

[RhaegarTharen]

Thanks - I thought it would help lend perspective to the PFF numbers.  To cherry-pick an example; who was more valuable:  Casey Hayward's +1.0 grade in 88 snaps or Darius Butler's -1.4 grade in 706 snaps. 
 
Also - holy fuck balls my offense stinks. 

 

[Dgilpin]

Thanks again for putting this together Jose... The Lions offense looks to be very explosive, Wayne Fontes would be proud

 

[soxfan121]

Thanks again for putting this together Jose... The Lions offense looks to be very explosive, Wayne Fontes would be proud

 
The Lions offense looks like it did a lot of running for its life. Wow, the OL is not good. Shift everyone down a few points or more to compensate for the 11 billion sacks given up.

 

[Dgilpin]

Jose , can you double check Andre Smiths PFF score. You have him at 15 snaps , but he appears to have started 15 games this year.

 

[RhaegarTharen]

Jose , can you double check Andre Smiths PFF score. You have him at 15 snaps , but he appears to have started 15 games this year.

 
Good catch, he was listed at the end alphabetically since they show him as "Smith Jr., Andre".   The stats above are for Andre Smith (TE/WR). 
 
Your Andre Smith actually had the following stats:  +18.5; 1,120 snaps.  Makes your O-Line look just a bit better. 

 

[Super Nomario]

#NFL1000
QB:
Romo, CHI - 12th
Tannehill, DET - 20th
Cutler, GB - 11th
Manuel, MIN - 31st
Palmer, MIN - 23rd
LT:
Saffold, CHI - Not Rated
Dunlap, CHI - 11th
Thomas, DET - 2nd
Brown, GB - 14th
Beachum, GB - 24th
Hairston - MIN - NR

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I see some pretty solid teams in this division.

Merlin's squad looks very good to me - an explosive offensive with some big time playmakers on the outside and with Sproles out of the backfield and a sneaky-good defense upgraded by some late round picks that really hit (Terence Knighton, Captain Munnerlyn).

I can see Dgilpin and PDBWake's teams also putting up lots of points on offense although maybe struggling a little defensively.

Sleepyjose has sweet defense with playmakers at every level (the Casey Heyward injury hurts though). With the youth of his offense, his team might be a year or two away, but could become a total beast with a little more talent/experience on that side of the ball.

 

[mascho]

Yeah, MM did a really good job putting that offense together.  Well done.  

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Merlins combo of AJ Green and Vincent Jackson with Olsen and Clay at TE would be a nightmare for any team to cover. Sleepy has the best D but the worst O, while PBD and Dgil both have really solid teams. This is a tough division to figure out.

 

[soxfan121]

A couple random thoughts: 
 
1. sleepyjose's offense is 4th out of these four - the OL is average, the WR almost universally below average, Manuel was hated by PFF. I could be sold by an argument that says Carson Palmer took the snaps for this RFP team, with Manuel carrying a clipboard, which makes the offense merely average in just about every way possible. Lots of stalled drives would at least result in the offensive coordinator being fired. 
 
2. The Lions, blackhole of suck at the TE position aside, were probably one of the most fun teams in the RFP to watch. Opponents with good DT play would have eaten them alive but edge rushers were neutralized, the WRs are very good, McCoy is pretty awesome and there's a legit argument that Tannehill was better with this team than in real life. At least here, he has tackles. 
 
3. MM's offense was probably boom or bust, lacking a running game and being helmed by Romo. A couple 50-point drubbings and one or two inexplicable losses on the inability to run for short yardage or a Romo blunder. The OL though defines solid, so the fact that the RB group didn't really play much makes this a bit of a talent-production mismatch. 
 
4. PDBWake has a running game, a good QB-WR1 connection and a decent OL. There would be a few games where coverage/an exceptional CB performance could shut down the passing game but otherwise this looks like a consistent, reliable unit. 
 
I will wait on defensive arguments before adding thoughts to that side of the ball. The personnel is much more scheme dependent, so I'm interested to hear how they've deployed their assets before judging a winner/wildcard/3rd/bottom. I do think this ends up one of the more competitive divisions, as there is no obvious laggard or weakness. Good job by all GMs - none of these teams deserves to be picking in the top 10.

 

[RhaegarTharen]

I'm honestly not sure what to argue as to how the Vikings would fare in this division.  We obviously would be unable to put up points consistently, and given the other QBs in the league, I think that likely makes us the front-runner to finish last.  But I love my defense, and absolutely believe that we'd have hung around in enough games to pull out our fair share of upsets.   I'm thinking we might have been able to steal two division games.  Other teams played last year were the AFC North, the NFC East, the Panthers, and the Seahawks.  I'm assuming that while my defense could stay competitive with anyone in the league, I'm not going to outscore any top level offenses.  So that means losses to the Bengals, Steelers, Ravens, and Redskins.   Assuming best case scenario they win 3 games of the remaining 6 (probably unlikely) that still only gives 5 wins total.   I'm guessing with this offense, it's much more likely that we win 4 games tops.  So we're probably the NFC North representative for the worst-in-division pool.
 
A quick breakdown, Offense then Defense:
 
- Palmer would have nominally been the starter, but I would have made sure Manuel got some reps, as Carson is obviously not the future answer.  The jury is still out on whether Manuel can be that guy, but I would have favored a slow transition over the throw 'em in the fire approach. 
 
- Tough to project the O-Line, given that my primary selection for LT and the supplemental pick I made to replace him both went down with injuries early and neither played a single snap.  Even assuming replacement level production here, the left side of my line would have struggled severely.  Not ideal when you're facing the likes of Mario Williams, Chris Long, and Chandler Jones 6 times a year.  The right side of my line is young and showed promise, however, so not all is lost here.  Picking up a LT in the next draft will be a priority. 
 
- Bryce Brown didn't get the chance to prove his showcase last year was the real deal, as McCoy was not only healthy all season, but a dominant force.  I still like Brown's talent, but it doesn't look if he has the makings of a feature back. 
 
- The WR corps were a disaster - Mike Williams' play suffered early under Freeman and then he went down injured.  Terrance shows promise, but is still very raw.  McCluster is a great complimentary piece, but he would have been asked to do way too much for our anemic offense.   Jared Cook (more WR than TE) was similarly disappointing.  And I have no fucking clue what I was thinking picking Robinson, other than my offense was already shitty and it must have been a really long day at work.
 
- Tank Carradine essentially redshirting this season threw a wrench into my DL.  I was able to grab Canty in the Supplemental Draft, who was a nice little boost, but it still left me with Wake as the only guy able to play 4-3 End.  So I would have been forced to play a (mildly unbalanced) 3-4 line.  I'd probably have run a 1-Gap system similar to Wade Phillips'.  Plug Hankins in the middle of the line to clog it up and occupy as much space and bodies as he can.  Dareus would have to play End with Canty, and Wake shifting to a rush OLB role. 
 
- This would push Hightower to an inside role - luckily his actual season showed he can handle such a role.  I think he would have paired well with Cushing (for the extent the latter was healthy).  KJ Wright gets the other OLB slot, and would be our primary cover LB as a result.  All in all I think that our Front-7, while not exactly what I had in mind when drafting, would still have been very competitive.  There were no glaring weaknesses in this unit. 
 
- Chris Conte was a disaster this season at FS (as was the rest of the real life Bears secondary).  Luckily the rest of the secondary goes a long way to make up for him.  TJ Ward and Verner were studs, and McKelvin put together a very solid season.  Banks struggled as a rookie, but showed just enough promise that I think he would have been fine coming off the bench (with McKelvin sliding to cover the slot) and could still turn into a solid player.  
 
- Ultimately, injuries forced us away from the intended 1 Gap 4-3 look I drafted for, but I still think this unit could have held it's own.  When everyone was healthy, I could have fielded strong players at 10/11 spots. 
 
- I think this team has a couple of very large and deep holes to fill - but it's loaded with young quality talent, and as said, we could only be a couple years away from making a serious run at some hardware. 

 

[soxfan121]

The Vikings win the write up portion of the contest.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

We need to start voting for this division

 

[RhaegarTharen]

Holding off on voting myself until I see some write-ups on the other teams, but I think Merlin's Bears team has just enough defensive talent to take the division. I don't like relying on Romo over Tannehill/Cutler, but I think his advantage at O-Line pulls him ahead even though all three teams have pretty explosive talents offensively.

I'd like to think I have the defense to match up against these guys, but there's no way I'm shutting down both Green & VJax or DeSean & Garcon, and all three teams have great pass-catching options at RB. I think Ward/Wright/Cushing/Hightower could neutralize that to an extent, but I just don't have the ponies offensively to keep up with these guys.....yet. I'm thinking I'd lose a bunch of games 17-10 or the like.

Tough break for Wake, with lots of good OTs in the division - we'd have to either move him around to free him up, or just use him to try and command double-teams and free up Dareus. Speaking of which - I think he could have had a monster year in this division - I think we could have schemed aggressively to take advantage of some softer interior line play, and Wake's presence on the edge and the big bodies of Canty and Hankins would occupy a ton of blockers. Not to mention Cushing or Hightower blitzing.

No matter how I try and rationalize however, I still cant come up with a way I finish anywhere but last. QB is too important, and even with Palmer getting a majority of my snaps, my offensive skill players just aren't good enough to keep up with the firepower every other team is throwing out there.

 

[Super Nomario]

Holding off on voting myself until I see some write-ups on the other teams, but I think Merlin's Bears team has just enough defensive talent to take the division. I don't like relying on Romo over Tannehill/Cutler, but I think his advantage at O-Line pulls him ahead even though all three teams have pretty explosive talents offensively.

What have Tannehill and Cutler done to prove themselves more reliable than Romo?

 

[RhaegarTharen]

What have Tannehill and Cutler done to prove themselves more reliable than Romo?

It's not as much that they've proven themselves more reliable as none of the above have truly proven themselves to be reliable. Essentially I think an offense of Romo/Sproles/Green/Jackson is about as reliable as Tannehill/McCoy/Jackson/Garcon; and not much more reliable than Cutler/Charles/Nelson/Holmes/Brown.

The Bears get the nod because their Offensive Line and TE are better overall; not because their skill players proved to be better than the field IMO. I wasn't as clear as I should have been - what I really meant was that none of the teams had a sizable clear cut advantage at QB, so I was turning to the third or fourth criteria to differentiate.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Tony Romo can't even catch a break in this league. The guy is a very good QB who finally has has a defense behind him. Perhaps he's less inclined to take risks knowing he doesn't have to score 28+ points a game to win.

 

[soxfan121]

Tony Romo can't even catch a break in this league. The guy is a very good QB who finally has has a defense behind him. Perhaps he's less inclined to take risks knowing he doesn't have to score 28+ points a game to win.

 
Or maybe he just is a poor man's Brett Favre and has earned his reputation for being a bonehead?

 

[Mystic Merlin]

I'll have a write-up posted tonight or tomorrow, dudes.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Ok, here we go.
 
My defense is good.  Losing Spencer hurt, but Knighton - who we saw destroy the Patriots - Hill, and Chandler Jones is a nice core of pass rushers.  Throw in a good secondary, particularly the safeties, and a passable linebacking corps, and I feel confident that this unit doesn't lose me too many games.  Of course, I have a complete disaster out there in Kiwanuka, a guy who is almost certainly playing out of position, and Timmons had a really, really disappointing season in what should have been the apex of his prime.  And I think Lance Briggs is about five minutes from retirement or suckitude.  I like my playmakers and relative lack of black holes, but I expected this unit to be better. It's abundantly clear that I need to bolster the LB corps, which, again, suffers from a mix of age and relative underperformance.  I expected to have to get younger here, but not necessarily this soon.
 
My offense is also good, although I think I'm fucked long-term at the moment.  I have little confidence in Romo producing anything but another year or so of good production, but maybe he'll benefit from having sane stud wideouts who do not date Kim Kardashian, while still having a couple of steady, reliable TEs.  Jonathan Stewart was shit, but Sproles was, per usual, a nightmare coming out of the backfield.  What I am most pleased by with this unit is the line, which outperformed expectations.  Ironically, the guy I had the most confidence in, Beadles, had the worst season of the lot.  I gambled on waiting to draft tackles, and, for now, it worked out ok.  Ramirez, as we know, was a grand slam for both the RF Bears and the real-life Broncos. 
 
All in all, I think this is a playoff team - I don't have too many weak links, I have a core group of top-end playmakers, and I have stability on the lines. 
 
I'm sure Bromo will find a way to lose the division to Tannehill or something.