PTBNLs named in Benintendi/Cordero trade

scottyno

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They would have to be some good prospects to make up for Frenchy. He’s been absolutely terrible both offensively and defensively. We sure could use a player like Benintendi now. What’s done is done but I think they gave up on Andrew a little too quickly.
Barely over a week ago Cordero was hitting better than AB, the prospects don't need to be that great
 

scottyno

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Would you still make that trade today?
Yes because I trust Bloom to identify the right PTBNLs and I think the difference between having AB and having Cordero on the team this year is close to meaningless. The trade wasn't about this year, and I doubt people expected Cordero to actually be better than AB alone.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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They would have to be some good prospects to make up for Frenchy. He’s been absolutely terrible both offensively and defensively. We sure could use a player like Benintendi now. What’s done is done but I think they gave up on Andrew a little too quickly.
First, it's Franchy, not Frenchy.

Second, Benintendi has had one good week, which is great for him. There's no guarantee he keeps it up nor is there a guarantee he'd be doing it in a Red Sox uniform had he stayed.

Third, having Benintendi instead of Cordero maybe swings the fortunes of one game in the last week. Otherwise, I don't think he makes a difference at all and arguably he might have hurt them more over the first three weeks of the season when he was OPSing .515.

Fourth, Benintendi's salary vs Cordero's salary tips the scales a bit. Certainly enough that it will take more than one good week/month (or one bad month) to declare winners and losers on the trade, prospects or not.
 
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Good points. Need to give it time and not just compare Codero’s stats to Benintendi to this point. I was hoping Cordero would at least be a service part-time player and hopefully he still can be.
 

mauf

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Would you still make that trade today?
Yes.

The deal was Beni for a good prospect and Franchy, and we flipped the prospect to the Mets for a PTBNL. In principle, I loved the deal with the Mets — Dayton Moore (Royals’ GM) might have the best track record of any GM in terms of not trading away prospects who amount to anything. But we can’t really assess that part of the deal without knowing who the PTBNL is.

Franchy was more than a random throw-in, but wasn’t intended to be a replacement for Beni. Even if Franchy ends up being a total bust, it doesn’t fundamentally change the deal calculus — which revolves around the prospect from the Mets, and whether you think Beni was ever going to right the ship without a change in scenery.
 

Tuff Ghost

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Also, just to add some context to Benintendi's hot week, he has not been exactly killing the ball, so it's still a little early to celebrate his return to form. It's more similar to a Christian Vazquez style hot streak than a hard-hitting, barreling-up everything type of hot streak.

Benintendi stats during his hot streak (4/23 through 5/2):
  • Average exit velocity: 87.6 mph
  • Max exit velocity: 103.7 mph
  • HR distances: 361, 379, and 384 ft
Even after a hot week early in the season, most of his Statcast data is still pretty mediocre or poor:
  • Max Exit Velocity: 28th percentile
  • Barrel %: 30th percentile
  • Hard-Hit %: 40th percentile
  • xwOBA: 56th percentile
 

barbed wire Bob

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Dumb question but how do PTBNL trades work? Did the parties involved agree on a list of potential trade candidates and Ben gets to choose three from the list? Or did they already agree on who will be traded but, for bookkeeping purposes the players will continue their development with their current organization?
This was discussed earlier in the thread and I believe the reporting was that they definitely do not (or at least did not at the time of the trade) have a specific player agreed upon, but the Sox do have some (formal or informal) list of players Bloom gets to choose from. I think Bloom directly told the public that making it PTBNLs instead of actual players at the time was because Boston wanted more time to scout potential options given Covid.
 

Niastri

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Wow, I didn't realize that the Sox got Franchy and 4 other prospects... Somehow I thought it was only 3 PTBNL, the pitching prospect got lost in my mind.

The Sox got an absolute haul for an expensive gamble like Benintendi.
 

barbed wire Bob

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This was discussed earlier in the thread and I believe the reporting was that they definitely do not (or at least did not at the time of the trade) have a specific player agreed upon, but the Sox do have some (formal or informal) list of players Bloom gets to choose from. I think Bloom directly told the public that making it PTBNLs instead of actual players at the time was because Boston wanted more time to scout potential options given Covid.
Thank you. That helps.
 

nvalvo

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Why such a late blooming PTBNL? Pun sort of intended.
Because there wasn't a minor league baseball season last year. Khalil Lee, who we flipped to NY, was arguably a more pedigreed prospect than Cordero.

Wow, I didn't realize that the Sox got Franchy and 4 other prospects... Somehow I thought it was only 3 PTBNL, the pitching prospect got lost in my mind.

The Sox got an absolute haul for an expensive gamble like Benintendi.
The trade makes sense for Boston even if Benintendi turns out to rebound — I like him, so I hope he does. We gave up two years of control of Benintendi for three years of Franchy, and three prospects — two PsTBNL and Khalil Lee — and then we flipped Khalil Lee, a legitimate prospect who has made top-100 lists, to the Mets for Winckowski, who will be in the Portland rotation and looks like a future depth starter and a PTBNL. So that second trade makes the overall three-team haul Franchy and four prospects, and suggests that the Mets PTBNL should be pretty great: they received their MLB.com #7 prospect (Lee) in exchange for a guy who doesn't quite crack our top #30 prospects and that PTBNL, so the player has to square that trade. (The Mets and Sox have comparable systems.)

I have no idea who the other two Royals' PsTBNL are likely to be, but they have a really deep farm system, so there should be some appealing options for the FO.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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Because there wasn't a minor league baseball season last year. Khalil Lee, who we flipped to NY, was arguably a more pedigreed prospect than Cordero.



The trade makes sense for Boston even if Benintendi turns out to rebound — I like him, so I hope he does. We gave up two years of control of Benintendi for two years of Franchy, and three prospects — two PsTBNL and Khalil Lee — and then we flipped Khalil Lee, a legitimate prospect who has made top-100 lists, to the Mets for Winckowski, who will be in the Portland rotation and looks like a future depth starter and a PTBNL. So that second trade makes the overall three-team haul Franchy and four prospects, and suggests that the Mets PTBNL should be pretty great: they received their MLB.com #7 prospect (Lee) in exchange for a guy who doesn't quite crack our top #30 prospects and that PTBNL, so the player has to square that trade. (The Mets and Sox have comparable systems.)

I have no idea who the other two Royals' PsTBNL are likely to be, but they have a really deep farm system, so there should be some appealing options for the FO.
Slight nit, but it's three years of Franchy. He's not a free agent until after the 2023 season. Between that extra year and the fact that he was not a super-2 while Benintendi was, they're going to save on salary unless Franchy really breaks out and raises his arbitration value significantly.
 

A Bad Man

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Franchy's performance over 62 PA is an almost completely neglible piece of data with which to evaluate this trade, particularly given the fact that he did not have a full ST.
 

A Bad Man

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Benintendi's projections were I'm sure around his career average wRC+ of 108, so it will be no surprise to see him hit that number.

Edit: Benintendi, despite the unforgettable catch, is not a good defender. His career OOA is -16, which puts him in Ryan Braun/Yoenis Cespedes territory (2016-2021).
 
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nvalvo

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Slight nit, but it's three years of Franchy. He's not a free agent until after the 2023 season. Between that extra year and the fact that he was not a super-2 while Benintendi was, they're going to save on salary unless Franchy really breaks out and raises his arbitration value significantly.
Ugh. I knew that, I just typed the wrong thing. Thank you.
 

billy ashley

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Yeah, as others have pointed out, even if Benintendi is going to be a 120 wRC+ guy (keep in mind, he was a 60 wRC+ guy, a week ago), his defense makes him only a nice player, instead of a very good one. The type of guy you're happy to have while cheap, but don't want to spend significant money on as they build service time.

I hope the rebound is real. He was a very helpful piece to one of the best Red Sox teams of all time. It's a shame he was pretty much a finished product out of college and that he couldn't increase his offensive output - but that likely has to do with physical tools more than anything else. The guy played hard. Played well and was a key contributor.

Cordero has been disappointing thus far, but he was always a powerball ticket. We still don't know the full haul of the deal, and it's still super early into the season.

It's way too early to judge this deal.
 

sean1562

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Wasnt the money saved spent on Marwin Gonzalez? I thought, to a certain extent, the thought was what Beni could provide could also be picked up cheaply on the FA market, so why not get 5 players for him and hope one becomes a major leaguer? Unfortunately Marwin has not had a great start either but could easily end the year with a .730ish OPS.
 

YTF

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Wasnt the money saved spent on Marwin Gonzalez? I thought, to a certain extent, the thought was what Beni could provide could also be picked up cheaply on the FA market, so why not get 5 players for him and hope one becomes a major leaguer? Unfortunately Marwin has not had a great start either but could easily end the year with a .730ish OPS.
Considering they can use him at nearly every position, Gonzalez also "expands" the roster in ways that Benintedi couldn't.
 

Tuff Ghost

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Franchy Cordero has been a special level of bad so far this year. Not all poor peformance is created equally. Sometimes players are unlucky based on their batted ball profiles (Dalbec), but that is very much not Franchy Cordero. He has very much deserved his putrid results. Allow me to paint a picture of how awful he has been.

As of today, there are 298 batters with at least 50 PAs (using Baseball Savant). Here is where Franchy ranks on some Statcast measurements (298th indicates worst at a given category):
  • xBA: 298th
  • xSLG: 298th
  • xwOBA: 298th
  • Barrel %: 298th*
  • K %: 292nd
  • In-Zone Contact %: 296th
  • Out-of-Zone Contact %: 292nd
*tied w/ 17 others who also have zero barrels

Of the 324 players with at least 25 batted-ball events, he ranks:
  • Max hit distance: 324th
  • Hard-Hit Per Swing %: 319th
  • Sweet-Spot %: 320th
He's been bad in every measurable way, making it is almost difficult to analyze him. Every number you look at is one of the worst in MLB. It's not just that his results are bad and he's had a few unlucky line drives caught. No, he is getting bad results, based upon badly hit balls, and that is only on the rare occasions when he is not badly swinging & missing. Bad (I wanted to write that word one more time).

Another table of how his numbers stack-up:
--- xBA xSLG xwOBA
Franchy Cordero 2021 .124 .166 .161
MLB 2021 .249 .435 .328
Red Sox Team 2021 .271 .477 .345
Jon Lester Career Batting .141 .221 .188

Yes, it's only 62 PAs, but these numbers are quickly approaching the absurd. We may soon need an Eric Van-level analysis of his sleep patterns or at least schedule an appointment with Will Middlebrook's (neglected) eye-doctor. In conclusion, bad.
 

shaggydog2000

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Franchy Cordero has been a special level of bad so far this year. Not all poor peformance is created equally. Sometimes players are unlucky based on their batted ball profiles (Dalbec), but that is very much not Franchy Cordero. He has very much deserved his putrid results. Allow me to paint a picture of how awful he has been.

As of today, there are 298 batters with at least 50 PAs (using Baseball Savant). Here is where Franchy ranks on some Statcast measurements (298th indicates worst at a given category):
  • xBA: 298th
  • xSLG: 298th
  • xwOBA: 298th
  • Barrel %: 298th*
  • K %: 292nd
  • In-Zone Contact %: 296th
  • Out-of-Zone Contact %: 292nd
*tied w/ 17 others who also have zero barrels

Of the 324 players with at least 25 batted-ball events, he ranks:
  • Max hit distance: 324th
  • Hard-Hit Per Swing %: 319th
  • Sweet-Spot %: 320th
He's been bad in every measurable way, making it is almost difficult to analyze him. Every number you look at is one of the worst in MLB. It's not just that his results are bad and he's had a few unlucky line drives caught. No, he is getting bad results, based upon badly hit balls, and that is only on the rare occasions when he is not badly swinging & missing. Bad (I wanted to write that word one more time).

Another table of how his numbers stack-up:
--- xBA xSLG xwOBA
Franchy Cordero 2021 .124 .166 .161
MLB 2021 .249 .435 .328
Red Sox Team 2021 .271 .477 .345
Jon Lester Career Batting .141 .221 .188

Yes, it's only 62 PAs, but these numbers are quickly approaching the absurd. We may soon need an Eric Van-level analysis of his sleep patterns or at least schedule an appointment with Will Middlebrook's (neglected) eye-doctor. In conclusion, bad.
So he's sort of like the old Tampa Bay Bucs? He can't hit balls in the zone, can't hit balls out of the zone, and can't figure out what else he can swing at?
 

soxhop411

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Franchy Cordero has been a special level of bad so far this year. Not all poor peformance is created equally. Sometimes players are unlucky based on their batted ball profiles (Dalbec), but that is very much not Franchy Cordero. He has very much deserved his putrid results. Allow me to paint a picture of how awful he has been.

As of today, there are 298 batters with at least 50 PAs (using Baseball Savant). Here is where Franchy ranks on some Statcast measurements (298th indicates worst at a given category):
  • xBA: 298th
  • xSLG: 298th
  • xwOBA: 298th
  • Barrel %: 298th*
  • K %: 292nd
  • In-Zone Contact %: 296th
  • Out-of-Zone Contact %: 292nd
*tied w/ 17 others who also have zero barrels

Of the 324 players with at least 25 batted-ball events, he ranks:
  • Max hit distance: 324th
  • Hard-Hit Per Swing %: 319th
  • Sweet-Spot %: 320th
He's been bad in every measurable way, making it is almost difficult to analyze him. Every number you look at is one of the worst in MLB. It's not just that his results are bad and he's had a few unlucky line drives caught. No, he is getting bad results, based upon badly hit balls, and that is only on the rare occasions when he is not badly swinging & missing. Bad (I wanted to write that word one more time).

Another table of how his numbers stack-up:
--- xBA xSLG xwOBA
Franchy Cordero 2021 .124 .166 .161
MLB 2021 .249 .435 .328
Red Sox Team 2021 .271 .477 .345
Jon Lester Career Batting .141 .221 .188

Yes, it's only 62 PAs, but these numbers are quickly approaching the absurd. We may soon need an Eric Van-level analysis of his sleep patterns or at least schedule an appointment with Will Middlebrook's (neglected) eye-doctor. In conclusion, bad.
That’s your answer right there. It’s SSS

now do AB’s stats if you throw out his “hot” week.

that one hot week skews AB’s season stats.
 

Al Zarilla

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You have Jon Lester in there for comparison sake. Jon didn't get his first major league hit until his 60 something AB. He has a career BA of .107 with 319 career ABs, and you say he's a better hitter than Franchy?
 

Tuff Ghost

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You have Jon Lester in there for comparison sake. Jon didn't get his first major league hit until his 60 something AB. He has a career BA of .107 with 319 career ABs, and you say he's a better hitter than Franchy?
That was meant to be a light-hearted comparison. I like Franchy Cordero and think he is much better than this. What I was posting was just an explanation for how bad his start has been.

If I thought Jon Lester was a better hitter than Franchy Cordero I would have said that. What I was showing is that Franchy's start to 2021, based on Statcast measurements, is in fact worse than Lester's career.
 

Tuff Ghost

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That’s your answer right there. It’s SSS

now do AB’s stats if you throw out his “hot” week.

that one hot week skews AB’s season stats.
I was not looking for an "answer" or comparing Benintendi to Cordero. To be clear, the only purpose of the post was to show how bad Cordero's start has been. It's in the special category of bad and I thought that was interesting. I actually wanted to find some silver-linings to his start, but every number I looked at was worse than the last, so I thought I'd share.

Cordero, in his short career prior to 2021, has typically done pretty decently on Statcast numbers because he is capable of hitting the ball very hard. I hope this is the nadir of his year.
 

jon abbey

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Not sure if this was mentioned at the time, but Lee needing a 40 man spot immediately was maybe part of the reason for making this a three way deal. When NY traded Sonny Gray to the Reds, they got back Shed Long but did not want to use a 40 man spot on him so immediately traded him to SEA for Josh Stowers, who was a few years away from needing to be protected still. This is maybe part of what was going on here too.
 

catsooey

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They would have to be some good prospects to make up for Frenchy. He’s been absolutely terrible both offensively and defensively. We sure could use a player like Benintendi now. What’s done is done but I think they gave up on Andrew a little too quickly.


I think so too, and I would still feel the same way if Beni wasn’t doing well and Franchy was. I think the Royals GM pulled a fast one on us and sold us a lemon. I also think that Beni’s troubles were of his own making - trying to bulk up and putting on all that extra weight and messing with his swing. He’s got too small a frame to carry that much extra weight, and it doesn’t take much to turn a successful player into one who is struggling. A few fractions of a second slower, a slight drop in coordination and you‘re in trouble. Then you start over-analyzing your whole skill set. If Beni had gotten a serious injury that forced a change in his play style, or he was 38 years old, then maybe I’d feel differently. But I think his issues are very fixable and he’ll do very well. On the other hand, I never liked Franchy as a choice and something is obviously wrong on many levels with his game. I think Kansas City put on a show and sucked everyone in. They told everyone they had a Ferrari, then they parked an Edsel in our driveway and ran.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I think so too, and I would still feel the same way if Beni wasn’t doing well and Franchy was. I think the Royals GM pulled a fast one on us and sold us a lemon. I also think that Beni’s troubles were of his own making - trying to bulk up and putting on all that extra weight and messing with his swing. He’s got too small a frame to carry that much extra weight, and it doesn’t take much to turn a successful player into one who is struggling. A few fractions of a second slower, a slight drop in coordination and you‘re in trouble. Then you start over-analyzing your whole skill set. If Beni had gotten a serious injury that forced a change in his play style, or he was 38 years old, then maybe I’d feel differently. But I think his issues are very fixable and he’ll do very well. On the other hand, I never liked Franchy as a choice and something is obviously wrong on many levels with his game. I think Kansas City put on a show and sucked everyone in. They told everyone they had a Ferrari, then they parked an Edsel in our driveway and ran.
What do you think of the potential of the PTBNLs and the other prospect, catsooey? This was never a Benintendi for Cordero trade. Arguing just that is being disingenuous.
 

joe dokes

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I think so too, and I would still feel the same way if Beni wasn’t doing well and Franchy was. I think the Royals GM pulled a fast one on us and sold us a lemon. I also think that Beni’s troubles were of his own making - trying to bulk up and putting on all that extra weight and messing with his swing. He’s got too small a frame to carry that much extra weight, and it doesn’t take much to turn a successful player into one who is struggling. A few fractions of a second slower, a slight drop in coordination and you‘re in trouble. Then you start over-analyzing your whole skill set. If Beni had gotten a serious injury that forced a change in his play style, or he was 38 years old, then maybe I’d feel differently. But I think his issues are very fixable and he’ll do very well. On the other hand, I never liked Franchy as a choice and something is obviously wrong on many levels with his game. I think Kansas City put on a show and sucked everyone in. They told everyone they had a Ferrari, then they parked an Edsel in our driveway and ran.
So Bloom never even looked *at* the hood (ornament) much less under it?
 

Average Reds

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Once the small-sample-size-based hyperventilating reached epic proportions, it was obvious that Cordero would start hitting ropes.

Given all the prospects in the deal, we’ll know if the trade was a good one in a few years. People should calm down in the interim.

Edit: OK, that last one by Franchy wasn’t a rope.
 
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chawson

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Once the small-sample-size-based hyperventilating reached epic proportions, it was obvious that Cordero would start hitting ropes.

Given all the prospects in the deal, we’ll know if the trade was a good one in a few years. People should calm down in the interim.

Edit: OK, that last one by Franchy wasn’t a rope.
Exit velocities of 110.2, 106.8, 104.2 mph (and uh, 74.5 on that game-winner) — his first, third and fifth hardest-hit balls of the season.
 

A Bad Man

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Once the small-sample-size-based hyperventilating reached epic proportions, it was obvious that Cordero would start hitting ropes.

Given all the prospects in the deal, we’ll know if the trade was a good one in a few years. People should calm down in the interim.

Edit: OK, that last one by Franchy wasn’t a rope.
Trying to explain the existence of the game thread energy AND the forum energy is like trying pull yourself up by your supershoestrings.
 

CanvasAlley

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Yes, it's only 62 PAs, but these numbers are quickly approaching the absurd. We may soon need an Eric Van-level analysis of his sleep patterns or at least schedule an appointment with Will Middlebrook's (neglected) eye-doctor. In conclusion, bad.
Nothing takes me back to my earliest days on SOSH quite like an Eric Van reference.
 

catsooey

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What do you think of the potential of the PTBNLs and the other prospect, catsooey? This was never a Benintendi for Cordero trade. Arguing just that is being disingenuous.

I‘m not trying to say that the PTNBLs won’t turn out to be good players - they might, but they’re a longshot. I agree that they need to invest in the future, but the potential value of those prospects and the new pitcher needs to make up for the loss of performance in Franchy. I know Beni wasn’t playing well and people had questions, and if both Franchy and Beni turn out more or less equal, whether they‘re bad or good, the Sox come out with a haul. I don’t think Chaim liked Beni, just like Dombrowski wasn’t sold on Mookie. But I see Beni’s problems as a bump in the road - he has the same ability he had before. Putting on extra weight can have a major effect on physical ability, and if he can drop the weight and get out of his own head I think he’ll be ok. Rick Porcello got it into his mind that he didn’t want to be a contact pitcher anymore and wanted to strike everyone out with a four seam fastball. It didn’t go well, and he went back to being himself and won the Cy Young.
 

thestardawg

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I‘m not trying to say that the PTNBLs won’t turn out to be good players - they might, but they’re a longshot. I agree that they need to invest in the future, but the potential value of those prospects and the new pitcher needs to make up for the loss of performance in Franchy. I know Beni wasn’t playing well and people had questions, and if both Franchy and Beni turn out more or less equal, whether they‘re bad or good, the Sox come out with a haul. I don’t think Chaim liked Beni, just like Dombrowski wasn’t sold on Mookie. But I see Beni’s problems as a bump in the road - he has the same ability he had before. Putting on extra weight can have a major effect on physical ability, and if he can drop the weight and get out of his own head I think he’ll be ok. Rick Porcello got it into his mind that he didn’t want to be a contact pitcher anymore and wanted to strike everyone out with a four seam fastball. It didn’t go well, and he went back to being himself and won the Cy Young.
Almost all propsects are "longshots" I believe in this case the PTBNL are so because of the year off for minor leaguers, and Bloom wants to see them in game action this year. It's not like we're probably getting the 45th best prospect in this case.

I don't know why we are sobbing over the loss of a player who has shown a sudden and dramatic fall in ability and speed. While part of that could be due to overly packing on muscle, it doesn't explain his complete fail at all aspects of the game over the last two years, and just when he is starting to get expensive.
 

scottyno

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I‘m not trying to say that the PTNBLs won’t turn out to be good players - they might, but they’re a longshot. I agree that they need to invest in the future, but the potential value of those prospects and the new pitcher needs to make up for the loss of performance in Franchy. I know Beni wasn’t playing well and people had questions, and if both Franchy and Beni turn out more or less equal, whether they‘re bad or good, the Sox come out with a haul. I don’t think Chaim liked Beni, just like Dombrowski wasn’t sold on Mookie. But I see Beni’s problems as a bump in the road - he has the same ability he had before. Putting on extra weight can have a major effect on physical ability, and if he can drop the weight and get out of his own head I think he’ll be ok. Rick Porcello got it into his mind that he didn’t want to be a contact pitcher anymore and wanted to strike everyone out with a four seam fastball. It didn’t go well, and he went back to being himself and won the Cy Young.
Consdering Porcello followed up that cy young year with 4 mediocre years and at age 32 still isn't signed, he probably isn't a great comp if you're trying to argue for AB turning back into what as of now is looking like it might have been a one year wonder.

Also not sure how you can determine how likelly the PTBNLs are to become anything or what their potential value is when we still don't even know who they are yet.