Has that really changed? I think the only thing that's changed is that there are rumblings that maybe the Sox are willing to go over the tax threshold, which obviously does change who could be brought in. I don't think it's worth it unless we're bringing in a #1/2 starter. And that most likely means parting with a cost-controlled starting positional player, too.
Numbers wise that may work, but I would think Cora would like to get the healthy starters that built in extra day of rest at this stage of the season.
For what purpose would the Red Sox need Logan Forsythe? He's not any better than Nunez or Holt or Lin.
Yeah I'm not seeing it. On the same token, one could say that Eduardo Nunez is one year removed from a .313/.341/.460 season...and his 2016 wasnt too shabby either. Their best bet is that Nunez regresses toward his more robust career power numbers in the 2nd half.
Mejia was always going to be traded. Cleveland tried to send him to Milwaukee in the trade Lucroy vetoed, and there’s reportedly concerns about his defense behind the plate (and elsewhere). It’s his bat that’s been the asset, but he didn’t make a leap forward this year.
There will still be some Ziegler types out there for a reasonable cost, but the top guys aren't going to be given away. Hand is really good, cheap, and under control for 3+ years. He's going to bring back a top prospect. (And I've seen some emerging questions Mejia's ceiling as a catching prospect…)
Top available guys at their position that are no where near rental status specifically are going to bring back a top prospect, but agreed. This essentially is a poor base example to use in gauging the current market on rentals or targets with a salary dump aspect attached, and which is basically our own possibility interest atm.
Who do the Sox have that even approaches Mejia’s value? Devers? Slightly overpay by Cleveland but nice trade for both teams.
As already debated in here a month back, Devers is worth more but pretty much the closest ballpark value we'd of had imo.
Cimber is interesting. Prior to this year, he was a guy who had success in the minors with great control and keeping the ball in the park. This year, those things are still true but he has seen a huge spike in his K rate. 17.1% in the minors, this year in SD: 26.6%. If this is the guy he is going forward. he could be pretty close to an elite reliever. 51k/10bb/2HRA in 48.1 ip. That's a recipe for success.
You point out Hand's contract there like it's a bad thing, or wouldn't otherwise be completely expected to be picked up in full. Personally not as sold on Cimber either, but you never know I guess.
He's a submarine guy.
ROOGYs are likely to be pretty valuable in the post season, with Judge, Stanton, Sanchez, Betts, Martinez, etc. looming.
The contract is fine. That's not the point. If Brad Hand were making half a million, the return from the Indians would have been even better. Money factors into every deal.
For 20 innings of Britton I'll pass. The A's didn't give up much at all for a guy who may be better.
They shouldn't be trading for a starter unless they expect him to be in a playoff rotation.
I don't think this is true at all. Winning the division is so valuable that solidifying the back end of the rotation with a guy who may not make the playoff roster can still be the difference (the Yanks right now just sent their 5th guy back to AAA, with a 5.5+ ERA. and his name wasn't even Sonny Gray).
Agree. I think people are missing the point about just being a historically great Red Sox team with minor weaknesses.
Gibson’s beaten up on some really bad teams this year, but his improvement seems real. He’s gained velocity in 2018 and has a well above average whiff rate (11.8%, just behind Severino). It’s been even higher his last five starts—14.9%, which is Sale territory.
Again, what #4/5 starter are we trading for that is 1) materially better than Johnson and Velazquez, 2) doesn't put us over the tax threshold, and 3) improves the team more than a late-inning bullpen arm would? chawson put a decent list together in post #642. We're talking about the guys in the low tier section there or AAAA filler. If we don't expect Pomeranz/Rodriguez/Wright to pitch in the playoffs, then it becomes a different kind of pitcher (a #2/3) we're looking for - which comes with different costs associated. And that's a different conversation.
#2 is the key one that makes your request impossible. Unless the trade involves sending a player of equal salary away or the player comes with cash to off-set his entire salary, the Red Sox aren't likely to acquire anyone (starter, reliever, or hitter) and stay under the $237M salary threshold.
Completing this analogy, Aaron Small started Game 3 of the ALDS, which the Yankees lost 11-7 en route to a 3-2 series loss.
You don't go over the threshold for a #5 starter. If they want to go after a #2 who will be here next year, then it could make some sense. Trading for a #4/5 makes no sense.
Therein lies the other dilemma. Who's this "#2" that they can go after, who's under control through at least next year, who wouldn't be snatched up by another team who has way more trade chips in the coffers?
I don't know that that's really true, though. They don't NEED a #5 - they have Johnson and Velazquez. The only scenario in which they'd NEED a #2 is for the playoffs. And that's if you can't count on any of Pomeranz/Rodriguez/Wright, which I don't think anyone knows at this point. But there's really no middle ground between getting a #5 who isn't any better than what we have and blowing through the tax cap and giving up major pieces for a really good starter. I agree a deal for a top of the rotation starter would be difficult to make, both in terms of actually having the chips and the pain those chips would cause in the long term.
I'd guess the Orioles could land someone better than Dalbec but it's possible the are intrigued by his massive power. Dalbec hasn't really "struggled" this year but he fell off a lot of peoples' radar hitting .210 and striking out 30% of the time, but he has really killed the ball in July and has an ISO over .300 for the year. Over the last 17 games (.426/.514/.967 in 74 PA, 12bb/19k, 16 XBH) , he's raised his line from .222/.345/.475 to .261/.377/.569. He just turned 23 a month ago but he's in Salem, so I'm not sure how other teams value him.
