Potential Trade Deadline Targets

tonyarmasjr

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I was insistent that this team needed another SP, and was laughed out of this thread a couple of weeks back. Peek my head back in and all kinds of names are being bandied about....
I did a few days ago when I suggested it, but wasn't able to provide the name of a player who might fit the bill under the constraints that people here imposed on the team.
Has that really changed? I think the only thing that's changed is that there are rumblings that maybe the Sox are willing to go over the tax threshold, which obviously does change who could be brought in. I don't think it's worth it unless we're bringing in a #1/2 starter. And that most likely means parting with a cost-controlled starting positional player, too.
 

YTF

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Maybe someone mentioned this before, apologize if so, but have you taken into consideration they have 9 off days remaining in the season? That means the fifth pitcher doesn't really have to make that many starts if they don't want him to (divide 64 by 5 and you get 12...maybe they only need the guy for 6 or 7 of those 12).
I'd still make upgrading the bullpen the priority.
Numbers wise that may work, but I would think Cora would like to get the healthy starters that built in extra day of rest at this stage of the season.
 

bosockboy

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Numbers wise that may work, but I would think Cora would like to get the healthy starters that built in extra day of rest at this stage of the season.
Yes, our ability to win it all rides heavily on the current version of Sale being there in October. That may drive an acquisition more than anything.
 

johnnywayback

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With the Dodgers acquiring Machado, I wonder if they might DFA Logan Forsythe. He hasn't exactly been an offensive weapon since he got to LA, but if we could get him for free (or heavily subsidized in a trade), he'd be a bargain-basement option just two years removed from a 264/333/444 season.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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With the Dodgers acquiring Machado, I wonder if they might DFA Logan Forsythe. He hasn't exactly been an offensive weapon since he got to LA, but if we could get him for free (or heavily subsidized in a trade), he'd be a bargain-basement option just two years removed from a 264/333/444 season.
For what purpose would the Red Sox need Logan Forsythe? He's not any better than Nunez or Holt or Lin.
 

TFisNEXT

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For what purpose would the Red Sox need Logan Forsythe? He's not any better than Nunez or Holt or Lin.
Yeah I'm not seeing it. On the same token, one could say that Eduardo Nunez is one year removed from a .313/.341/.460 season...and his 2016 wasnt too shabby either. Their best bet is that Nunez regresses toward his more robust career power numbers in the 2nd half.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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Ok, whatever delusions I had about this being a buyer's market are over. If bBrad Hand can fetch Francisco Mejia I officially want nothing to do with this trade market.

Stand pat DD.
 

chawson

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Ok, whatever delusions I had about this being a buyer's market are over. If bBrad Hand can fetch Francisco Mejia I officially want nothing to do with this trade market.

Stand pat DD.
Mejia was always going to be traded. Cleveland tried to send him to Milwaukee in the trade Lucroy vetoed, and there’s reportedly concerns about his defense behind the plate (and elsewhere). It’s his bat that’s been the asset, but he didn’t make a leap forward this year.

FWIW, Mejia’s development (age, mL level, offensive production) tracks almost perfectly with Swihart’s 3-4 years ago.
 

ZMart100

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It's Brad Hand + Adam Cimber for Mejia, but I think the point about the market still stands.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Ok, whatever delusions I had about this being a buyer's market are over. If bBrad Hand can fetch Francisco Mejia I officially want nothing to do with this trade market.

Stand pat DD.
There will still be some Ziegler types out there for a reasonable cost, but the top guys aren't going to be given away. Hand is really good, cheap, and under control for 3+ years. He's going to bring back a top prospect. (And I've seen some emerging questions Mejia's ceiling as a catching prospect…)
 

MikeM

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There will still be some Ziegler types out there for a reasonable cost, but the top guys aren't going to be given away. Hand is really good, cheap, and under control for 3+ years. He's going to bring back a top prospect. (And I've seen some emerging questions Mejia's ceiling as a catching prospect…)
Top available guys at their position that are no where near rental status specifically are going to bring back a top prospect, but agreed. This essentially is a poor base example to use in gauging the current market on rentals or targets with a salary dump aspect attached, and which is basically our own possibility interest atm.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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This is a really good short and long-term pick-up for Cleveland, with Miller and Allen FAs after this season. Dangit.
Who do the Sox have that even approaches Mejia’s value? Devers? Slightly overpay by Cleveland but nice trade for both teams.
 

MikeM

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Who do the Sox have that even approaches Mejia’s value? Devers? Slightly overpay by Cleveland but nice trade for both teams.
As already debated in here a month back, Devers is worth more but pretty much the closest ballpark value we'd of had imo.

My fingers remain wishfully crossed with no real expectation of seeing it happen on Britton, and still firmly believe it's safe to assume that his return isn't going to end up looking like this one.
 

grimshaw

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Cimber (who in several ways has been better than Hand this season) is being underrated in this deal IMO. Granted he is a rookie at age 27, but he has been great and they have 5 more years of control with him. They also assumed Hand's entire 16 or so mill remaining salary through the next two seasons . I don't think it would have taken near Mejia otherwise.

Britton will in no way approach anything close to what the Indians gave up.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Cimber (who in several ways has been better than Hand this season) is being underrated in this deal IMO. Granted he is a rookie at age 27, but he has been great and they have 5 more years of control with him. I don't think it would have taken close to Mejia otherwise.

Britton will in no way approach anything close to what the Indians gave up.
Cimber is interesting. Prior to this year, he was a guy who had success in the minors with great control and keeping the ball in the park. This year, those things are still true but he has seen a huge spike in his K rate. 17.1% in the minors, this year in SD: 26.6%. If this is the guy he is going forward. he could be pretty close to an elite reliever. 51k/10bb/2HRA in 48.1 ip. That's a recipe for success.
 

jon abbey

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Lefties kill Cimber, he is a ROOGY. .482 OPS allowed vs righties, .960 vs lefties.
 

MikeM

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Cimber (who in several ways has been better than Hand this season) is being underrated in this deal IMO. Granted he is a rookie at age 27, but he has been great and they have 5 more years of control with him. They also assumed Hand's entire 16 or so mill remaining salary through the next two seasons . I don't think it would have taken near Mejia otherwise.
You point out Hand's contract there like it's a bad thing, or wouldn't otherwise be completely expected to be picked up in full. Personally not as sold on Cimber either, but you never know I guess.

Another related aspect of this trade to like btw - it probably takes an extra team out of the potential market this upcoming offseason while the Sox are trying to address what projects to be their most pressing need going in.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Wouldn’t be shocked to see them take a flyer on Greg Holland with the Cards eating 90% of that contract. Seems like an interesting lotto ticket
 

grimshaw

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You point out Hand's contract there like it's a bad thing, or wouldn't otherwise be completely expected to be picked up in full. Personally not as sold on Cimber either, but you never know I guess.

Another related aspect of this trade to like btw - it probably takes an extra team out of the potential market this upcoming offseason while the Sox are trying to address what projects to be their most pressing need going in.
The contract is fine. That's not the point. If Brad Hand were making half a million, the return from the Indians would have been even better. Money factors into every deal.
 

chawson

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Senior VP Frank Wren was apparently scouting the Twins/Royals game last night. Gibson and Duffy started.


Later tweeted that Brian Dozier is “NOT on the Red Sox radar at the moment. Boston is more focused on bullpen help for now.”

Gibson, Duffy, Rodney, Rogers, Pressly, Duke, Merrifield, Moustakas, Escobar, and Brian Dozier all make some sense.
 

DeadlySplitter

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I don't see any point in Rodney (especially that asshole), Pressly, or Rogers.

Gibson I don't really believe in either
 

soxhop411

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Bryan Mata scratched...

I love this time of the year when every scratch or early PH churns trade rumors
 

grimshaw

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Familia trade to A's apparently finalized.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/athletics-to-acquire-jeurys-familia.html

Buster Olney tweeting that O's looking to deal Britton this weekend or early next week. Would you trade Shawaryn for Britton? I'd like a little more time to see what we have in Thornburg, and I like Shawaryn as a potential mid-to-back-end rotation piece. But tempting, if this would get it done.
For 20 innings of Britton I'll pass. The A's didn't give up much at all for a guy who may be better.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Johnson wasn't bad tonight, although he only went 5 innings. Thirnburg, meanwhile, was pretty horrible. So stilla tough call on which is a higher priority, SP or RP. Probably need to see how Pom does on Tuesday - although not sure if that game even gets played - it's raining today in MD, and forecast is rain every day through Thursday.

And Britton may be gone soon - latest from MLB Trade Rumors:
7:39pm: Both the Cubs and the Astros “are trying to match up prospects with the Orioles,” Jerry Crasnick of ESPN tweets. The Dodgers are also among those who would like to acquire Britton, Dan Connolly of The Athletic reports, though Rosenthal notesthat it may be difficult because of LA’s desire to stay under the luxury-tax threshold. No matter where Britton goes, the O’s hope to make a deal happen within the next few days, Crasnick adds.
 

edoug

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tonyarmasjr

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Johnson wasn't bad tonight, although he only went 5 innings. Thirnburg, meanwhile, was pretty horrible. So stilla tough call on which is a higher priority, SP or RP. Probably need to see how Pom does on Tuesday - although not sure if that game even gets played - it's raining today in MD, and forecast is rain every day through Thursday.
They shouldn't be trading for a starter unless they expect him to be in a playoff rotation.
 

DeadlySplitter

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They shouldn't be trading for a starter unless they expect him to be in a playoff rotation.
I don't think this is true at all. Winning the division is so valuable that solidifying the back end of the rotation with a guy who may not make the playoff roster can still be the difference (the Yanks right now just sent their 5th guy back to AAA, with a 5.5+ ERA. and his name wasn't even Sonny Gray).

I think it's very likely both teams try to scrap heap off the waiver wire for arms in August. if the race is still close in September and we need another arm then, I can see a trade / signing even with the postseason ineligibility rule.
 

grimshaw

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I don't think this is true at all. Winning the division is so valuable that solidifying the back end of the rotation with a guy who may not make the playoff roster can still be the difference (the Yanks right now just sent their 5th guy back to AAA, with a 5.5+ ERA. and his name wasn't even Sonny Gray).
Agree. I think people are missing the point about just being a historically great Red Sox team with minor weaknesses.

They are facing the Yankees in the final 4 games of the season. Likely with two of Price and pick your poison Pomeranz/Johnson. This is assuming E-Rod is 100% healthy too. They could easily be deciding the season in the last two games.

Whether you buy the projections, or not, these are before the MFY have made any moves.
I'm not interested in a one gamer with 60% odds of winning and then playing on the road against Houston. Especially if Oakland manages to pull off the 2nd spot with that bullpen.
 
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chawson

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I don't see any point in Rodney (especially that asshole), Pressly, or Rogers.

Gibson I don't really believe in either
Gibson’s beaten up on some really bad teams this year, but his improvement seems real. He’s gained velocity in 2018 and has a well above average whiff rate (11.8%, just behind Severino). It’s been even higher his last five starts—14.9%, which is Sale territory.

I think I’d prefer him to Mike Fiers. Either way it seems like DD may be shopping for a 2019 starter now.
 

tonyarmasjr

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I don't think this is true at all. Winning the division is so valuable that solidifying the back end of the rotation with a guy who may not make the playoff roster can still be the difference (the Yanks right now just sent their 5th guy back to AAA, with a 5.5+ ERA. and his name wasn't even Sonny Gray).

I think it's very likely both teams try to scrap heap off the waiver wire for arms in August. if the race is still close in September and we need another arm then, I can see a trade / signing even with the postseason ineligibility rule.
Agree. I think people are missing the point about just being a historically great Red Sox team with minor weaknesses.

They are facing the Yankees in the final 4 games of the season. Likely with two of Price and pick your poison Pomeranz/Johnson. This is assuming E-Rod is 100% healthy too. They could easily be deciding the season in the last two games.

Whether you buy the projections, or not, these are before the MFY have made any moves.
I'm not interested in a one gamer with 60% odds of winning and then playing on the road against Houston. Especially if Oakland manages to pull off the 2nd spot with that bullpen.
Again, what #4/5 starter are we trading for that is 1) materially better than Johnson and Velazquez, 2) doesn't put us over the tax threshold, and 3) improves the team more than a late-inning bullpen arm would? chawson put a decent list together in post #642. We're talking about the guys in the low tier section there or AAAA filler. If we don't expect Pomeranz/Rodriguez/Wright to pitch in the playoffs, then it becomes a different kind of pitcher (a #2/3) we're looking for - which comes with different costs associated. And that's a different conversation.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Velazquez and Johnson have pitched 106 innings so far at a combined ERA of about 3.20. Good luck finding anyone who is likely to be an upgrade on that.

Yes, they might well not keep it up. But even if you bring in another starter, it's really unlikely that guy would be close to as good as those 2 have been so far. The question is, how likely are they to be better than those guys going forward? None of those Twins starters look likely to be very good if they move to the AL East and pitch in a pennant race.

The rotation is probably going to be worse going forward, even if they trade for one of the starters they could afford. That's mostly because the rotation has been incredibly good so far. When you're on pace to win 112 games, it's really hard to even stay at that level, you're almost certainly not going to improve on it.

Or maybe Johnson and Velazquez could be our version of Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon, who came out of nowhere to save the Yankees in 2005 by going 17-3, 3.00 in 155 innings.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Again, what #4/5 starter are we trading for that is 1) materially better than Johnson and Velazquez, 2) doesn't put us over the tax threshold, and 3) improves the team more than a late-inning bullpen arm would? chawson put a decent list together in post #642. We're talking about the guys in the low tier section there or AAAA filler. If we don't expect Pomeranz/Rodriguez/Wright to pitch in the playoffs, then it becomes a different kind of pitcher (a #2/3) we're looking for - which comes with different costs associated. And that's a different conversation.
#2 is the key one that makes your request impossible. Unless the trade involves sending a player of equal salary away or the player comes with cash to off-set his entire salary, the Red Sox aren't likely to acquire anyone (starter, reliever, or hitter) and stay under the $237M salary threshold.
 

chawson

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Or maybe Johnson and Velazquez could be our version of Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon, who came out of nowhere to save the Yankees in 2005 by going 17-3, 3.00 in 155 innings.
Completing this analogy, Aaron Small started Game 3 of the ALDS, which the Yankees lost 11-7 en route to a 3-2 series loss.
 

tonyarmasjr

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#2 is the key one that makes your request impossible. Unless the trade involves sending a player of equal salary away or the player comes with cash to off-set his entire salary, the Red Sox aren't likely to acquire anyone (starter, reliever, or hitter) and stay under the $237M salary threshold.
You don't go over the threshold for a #5 starter. If they want to go after a #2 who will be here next year, then it could make some sense. Trading for a #4/5 makes no sense.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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You don't go over the threshold for a #5 starter. If they want to go after a #2 who will be here next year, then it could make some sense. Trading for a #4/5 makes no sense.
Therein lies the other dilemma. Who's this "#2" that they can go after, who's under control through at least next year, who wouldn't be snatched up by another team who has way more trade chips in the coffers?

They can't outbid anyone for a top of the rotation type guy or a multiple years of control guy, and the guys they might be able to get without being outbid aren't likely to be much of an upgrade over what they have in-house so aren't worth exceeding the cap for.

Rock-->Red Sox<--Hard place
 

tonyarmasjr

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Therein lies the other dilemma. Who's this "#2" that they can go after, who's under control through at least next year, who wouldn't be snatched up by another team who has way more trade chips in the coffers?

They can't outbid anyone for a top of the rotation type guy or a multiple years of control guy, and the guys they might be able to get without being outbid aren't likely to be much of an upgrade over what they have in-house so aren't worth exceeding the cap for.

Rock-->Red Sox<--Hard place
I don't know that that's really true, though. They don't NEED a #5 - they have Johnson and Velazquez. The only scenario in which they'd NEED a #2 is for the playoffs. And that's if you can't count on any of Pomeranz/Rodriguez/Wright, which I don't think anyone knows at this point. But there's really no middle ground between getting a #5 who isn't any better than what we have and blowing through the tax cap and giving up major pieces for a really good starter. I agree a deal for a top of the rotation starter would be difficult to make, both in terms of actually having the chips and the pain those chips would cause in the long term.

ETA: There isn't much time before they have to make a decision on whether they expect Pom/EdRo/Wright to return to form, which does squeeze them closer to that rock/hard place position.
 

Cesar Crespo

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What will a potential Britton return look like if it was the Sox? Is Bobby Dalbec enough of a prospect to build a package around? Will it take a top 100 type of prospect for the Orioles to pull the trigger?
I'd guess the Orioles could land someone better than Dalbec but it's possible the are intrigued by his massive power. Dalbec hasn't really "struggled" this year but he fell off a lot of peoples' radar hitting .210 and striking out 30% of the time, but he has really killed the ball in July and has an ISO over .300 for the year. Over the last 17 games (.426/.514/.967 in 74 PA, 12bb/19k, 16 XBH) , he's raised his line from .222/.345/.475 to .261/.377/.569. He just turned 23 a month ago but he's in Salem, so I'm not sure how other teams value him.

Thing is, I could see Dalbec being promoted to AA tomorrow and going on a tear for the rest of the year. If he does, his trade value would skyrocket. He'd be an an age appropriate level for a real prospect. I think right now the team would be selling low on Dalbec, despite his recent success.

Long story short, I could easily see a GM being enamored with Bobby Dalbec instead of another player that is rated considerably higher. Too bad the A's are in contention.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Latest on Britton, per MLB Trade Rumors:
SUNDAY, 1:38pm: There are indeed teams ahead of the Dodgers in Britton talks, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, who lists the Astros, Cubs and Red Sox as being “more active” than LA.

So what's the price for Britton? Upthread, I suggested the O's might be interested in Shawaryn, but I'd like to try to hold on to him. RedOctober and bosox79 suggested maybe Dalbec, but I suspect the O's might prefer someone else to a guy who could be the second coming of Chris Davis, who's not real popular in Baltimore right now. I think pitching is what they are after. Mata or Houck would seem to be too high a price for a rental, even if the O's picked up most of the money for Britton. What about Beeks? Or maybe they'd be interested in CJ Chatham (with a lower level guy thrown in?)? Of course, it's harder to evaluate what's a reasonable give when you don't know what others are offering.