Pitching Targets
- Thread starter nvalvo
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This statement is only true if you believe that there was no way to predict that the pitchers who turned out to be ineffective would be ineffective. If that's true, then maybe they should have gotten some more arms to insulate themselves from that luck. And since two of the pitchers are pitching better than expected maybe their "luck" isn't really so terrible?
More to the point, it shouldn't have been particularly surprising that Kelly and Buchholz were bad. EdRod, sure, but injuries happen and he wasn't exactly lights-out beyond his first three starts. Owens and Elias? They had zero track record.
Yeah it's hindsight but it's definitely valid to question the offseason decisions.
Generally players on the DL can be traded anytime there are not waivers required.
However, players have to be healthy and eligible to come off of the DL to be put on Trade Assignment Waivers and since this needs to happen before players can be traded between the two deadlines, then for all intents and purposes, injured players can't be traded at this time. However, they can often be PTBNL.
However, players have to be healthy and eligible to come off of the DL to be put on Trade Assignment Waivers and since this needs to happen before players can be traded between the two deadlines, then for all intents and purposes, injured players can't be traded at this time. However, they can often be PTBNL.
So how many candidates for the starting rotation should the Red Sox have started the season with? 10? 12? 15? At a certain point you run out of room to put them all?
We just have to accept that athlete performance is unpredictable. Clay sucked this year. But given his track record, there was some chance he might not have. Owens might have been the answer. Or Kelly. There were a lot of options to fill out the back of the rotation and the Red Sox had to hope that enough of them would turn out. They didn't, so now they have to do something about it. That's baseball. The expectation can't be that a team will be able to start the season without any question marks at any position. That's virtually impossible. You can't build a team with complete certainty. At a certain point you need players to step up.
We just have to accept that athlete performance is unpredictable. Clay sucked this year. But given his track record, there was some chance he might not have. Owens might have been the answer. Or Kelly. There were a lot of options to fill out the back of the rotation and the Red Sox had to hope that enough of them would turn out. They didn't, so now they have to do something about it. That's baseball. The expectation can't be that a team will be able to start the season without any question marks at any position. That's virtually impossible. You can't build a team with complete certainty. At a certain point you need players to step up.
Just saw this:
http://www.gaslampball.com/2016/7/13/12175192/si-prediction-padres-trade-pomeranz-to-red-sox-but-no-moncada
From the link, which is picked up from SI, but I couldn't locate the source link, "LHP Drew Pomeranz for 3B Rafael Devers, OF Andrew Benintendi, SS Devin Marreroand LHPs Henry Owens "
Now I like Pomeranz... but he's not had much of a track record and he hasn't ever passed 100 innings in a single season without injury. He seems like the type of guy that would be worth a haul like this and then blow out his shoulder or elbow by mid August and rarely ever pitch again
http://www.gaslampball.com/2016/7/13/12175192/si-prediction-padres-trade-pomeranz-to-red-sox-but-no-moncada
From the link, which is picked up from SI, but I couldn't locate the source link, "LHP Drew Pomeranz for 3B Rafael Devers, OF Andrew Benintendi, SS Devin Marreroand LHPs Henry Owens "
Now I like Pomeranz... but he's not had much of a track record and he hasn't ever passed 100 innings in a single season without injury. He seems like the type of guy that would be worth a haul like this and then blow out his shoulder or elbow by mid August and rarely ever pitch again
"This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation."
Way to much for Pomeranz, The writer is also way off that Devers and Benintendi are blocked like Margot. If they reach close to their potential, there no one on the current roster that would block either of them, except maybe Moncada. But if Devers hits like he is projected, a switch to 1st base solves that problem.
So the reason to get Gray now - not that I necessarily think they should - is because of the candidates, he's the only one both under contract for next year and still possessing of some upside beyond what he's shown in 2016. In other words, if you get Gray now, it is more about 2017 and beyond. The wisdom of that is certainly debatable, of course, particularly since that upside is probably why Oakland won't let him go on the super-cheap. Devers-Kopech-Chavis, maybe?
It is probably about what it would take to get it done, which is why it won't get done.
Also states that Devers is an excellent defensive 3b, which I've never actually read or heard anywhere.
Beside that, Pomeranz arm/elbow/shoulder would worry me for that price.
I predict he'll end up in TX
Beside that, Pomeranz arm/elbow/shoulder would worry me for that price.
I predict he'll end up in TX
the author notes he/she was just spitballing: or, as he/she puts it "pulling things out your @$$"
way more than I'd want to Red Sox to give for Pomeranz
Since we really only need a back of the rotation starter couldn't we possibly pick that up after the trade deadline in a waiver wire deal?
I did not realize that Pomeranz is already at the most innings he has ever pitched. That would really steer me away from him, because the risk of an injury or ineffectiveness down the stretch is too big given the big names that would be required to go the other way.
I think I'm in the Rich Hill/Ervin Santana boat.
I think I'm in the Rich Hill/Ervin Santana boat.
That's a fair price in this market for Pomeranz given how much control he has left.
Which is why I'm also in luckysox's camp, and I'm really lukewarm on Santana.
Which is why I'm also in luckysox's camp, and I'm really lukewarm on Santana.
Just FTR, Pomeranz had been back and forth to the minors quite a bit before the trade to Oakland, so he actually pitched 120 innings in 2011, 147 in 2012, then 86 in a half season before being promoted to the major league bullpen in 2013.
That's about the appropriate temperature for a 4 or 5, which is really all we need, I think. And DD has done a great job staying away from the top 5 prospects so far; let's just hope that continues.
And they have the gall to say:
SI Prediction: Padres trade Pomeranz to Red Sox...but no Moncada.
Fuckers thought they could get both Benintendi and Moncada? Offer them Sandoval, Buchholz and an old jugs machine.
Yep - reading all the tea leaves it looks like DD isn't going to be giving up any premium prospect talent for the pitching drek that's available.I think the Big Five (welcome to the club @MKopech105) are safe for this trading season.
If DD does bring in a 4/5 SP its likely the cost will be minimal. I don't even think Shaw will be traded for the Hellicksons of the world.
If DD does bring in a 4/5 SP its likely the cost will be minimal. I don't even think Shaw will be traded for the Hellicksons of the world.
E.Santana is a guy who might pass through waivers. I would say he is a borderline case. If someone claimed him, I could see the Twins letting him go for nothing, thereby saving 27 million, possibly 41 million with the vesting option.
Are you guys of the opinion the trio of Price (if he gets it together), Wright, and Porcello (at current levels) is enough for the playoffs?
Those 3 plus the offense beating up the other teams 2-4 starters may be enough. Looks to me like the Sox are only interested in a piece that will help get them there. Like the Peavy deal in 2013.
Those 3 plus the offense beating up the other teams 2-4 starters may be enough. Looks to me like the Sox are only interested in a piece that will help get them there. Like the Peavy deal in 2013.
I keep thinking about what would have been the cost if the Red Sox had traded for Gray before the season and how many of us would be jumping off bridges as we watched him screw the pooch in 2016.
Just go with what we have (Clay/EdRo).
Agree, I want to keep the Big 5, unless we start talking about a controllable Ace coming back.
There is no way you even consider dealing Travis Shaw for a 4/5 pitcher, especially a rental. Shaw is a 2-3 WIN player on a minimum salary. He doesn't get the credit he should from some around here.
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I don't think it's so much that they're only interested in a piece that will help get them there as it is that the only pitchers available for a reasonable price are the types that are only good enough to help get them there. Last July, we saw guys like Hamels, Cueto, and Price moved to teams where they were instantly the top guy in the rotation. There are no pitchers like that available right now. Hell there are barely any Mike Leake or Scott Kazmir types to be had.
Dombrowski's best bet might be pulling off something like the Pirates did last year and acquire a JA Happ level guy and have him catch fire out of nowhere. Of course, the Sox don't have the track record of turning guys around like Brad Fischer and the Pirates do, so it's not something to bet the farm on.
Oh - I agree regarding Shaw. No idea if DD shares our opinion though. The Hill acquisition did raise a Spockian Eyebrow though.
If the Padres could get that return Pomeranz Keith Law would be writing about the epic overpay the Sox did. I know that strating pitching is at a premium this year but cmon now this is ridiculous I think DD has checked on the market and that is why he is saying dont expect anything coming through the door not at these prices. Benintendi is incredibly valuable to the Sox he appears to be ticketed for Left Field maybe even later this year by my count that is 6 everyday players on very cheap contracts actually really 7 if you count the catcher position. This is incrediably valuable and allows the Sox to be very aggressive in other areas of need in free agency. The Sox might need a starter or two but not at these prices for the pitchers that appear to be available.
Have you looked at his numbers lately? He was riding the BABIP pumpkin coach early in the year. Midnight struck about a month ago. I'm not saying he's not a major leaguer, but I don't see any reason to doubt that his current line reflects the kind of major leaguer he's going to be: a more or less league-average hitter, and a decent corner defender. A role player, a useful guy to have around, but not someone you hesitate to trade if you can fill a need by doing so and you have a backup plan in place (which we do now with Hill). I wouldn't trade him for a fringey rental like Hellickson, but a respectable #4 type with a couple of years of reasonably priced control, like Santana? Maybe.
If we're going for it, I would *definitely* trade Shaw for a fourth starter. Hill seems like he can replace Shaw's production this year, and Moncada can take over at third sometime next year. (Maybe we retain Hill on a one-year deal and trade him when Moncada's ready.) What I'm saying is that while Shaw is a fine player, I don't see him as part of the core: he's closer to Brentz than he is to Betts.
So if Shaw can be the centerpiece for another starter, get the best one you can; if they have an additional year of control, great. He's more useful to a rebuilding team, who desperately needs to collect pre-arb regulars.
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal 3h3 hours ago
Told #Athletics’ Hill has legitimate blister. Could have taken scheduled turn tomorrow, but team decided to give him a couple of extra days.
***
There's little chance Rich Hill ever pitches again for Pakland
Told #Athletics’ Hill has legitimate blister. Could have taken scheduled turn tomorrow, but team decided to give him a couple of extra days.
***
There's little chance Rich Hill ever pitches again for Pakland
I guess my wording was sub-par there. I was not meaning to degrade Devers only to imply he'd be the one I'd be most comfortable parting with as I feel his positional availability is somewhat redundant to what we would already have with Shaw/Moncada/Sandoval
I am also open to Santana, but was just spit balling as to what do we think the variation in cost is to acquire either Gray or a Hill/Santana type? Based on age, contract, track record, peripherals, etc. I would still rather have gray down the stretch, in the playoffs if we make it, and for next season if he is not insanely more expensive.
For example if Ervin can be had for some multi player combo of Travis/Chavis/Marrero/Owens/Trey Ball but you can get Gray by throwing in Devers....would you do it?
Edit: I also feel Gray would benefit greatly from the improved defense behind him
Gray isn't going anywhere. Despite his first half struggles, the price to pry him out of Oakland is going to be prohibitive simply because Beane has zero motivation to move him. He's still cheap and he still has multiple years of control. As such, his current struggles doesn't really do much to lower the acquisition cost because Beane can simply wait until Gray fixes things and re-inflates his trade value.
The cost for Gray is still going to be prohibitively high because you have to overpay to convince Beane to move him at all. I expect to get Beane to budge, it will cost at least one of Moncada, Benintendi, or Espinoza.
The cost for Gray is still going to be prohibitively high because you have to overpay to convince Beane to move him at all. I expect to get Beane to budge, it will cost at least one of Moncada, Benintendi, or Espinoza.
The tea leaves were cloudy after all.
That said, straight up 1 for 1 was a factor in pulling the trigger, I think.
I think we're done. I wouldn't be surprised if there were a minor move for a left fielder, but I think we're done on the pitching front.
It would make all kinds of sense to try to get something for Owens, since his path to Sox relevance has never seemed more blocked, yet he might still be interesting to somebody. A middle relief arm might be a reasonable return for Owens + lottery ticket.
Think they're going to try to ride out Koji and Ziegler until Taz and Kimbrel return. A bullpen of those four by the time the playoffs roll around should be good enough.
I've been wanting a better primary lefty since before the season started. Maybe Henry Owens is that guy. I don't know what's behind his control troubles, but if he can dump the slider maybe he can make the curve more effective. Or hell, maybe he can get through inning-length outings on just a fastball and a change.
I'm not sure it makes sense to make that change now what with Rodriguez' mechanical difficulties, but if Rodriguez looks solid for a few consecutive starts, maybe it's something for down the stretch.
Click here to see three deals Dave'll do next week that blow your mind. #2 will make you laugh. #3 will make you cry.
EDIT: Just to clarify, I'm not necessarily pro or anti anything Dombrowski's doing right now. I'm still processing this. But this is Dombrowski being Dombrowski. You don't hire Dombrowski unless you want Dombrowski to do Dombrowski. Although I will say that if people look back through his past trades (and they go back a long way), you rarely find him disastrously losing a prospects-for-MLB-talent deal. Not that that means all these trades are going to be great, of course. That's why they play the games, I guess.
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Doolittle would be a big upgrade in the pen. I could see one more reliever possibly.
If the price is right on someone like Hellickson I could see getting one more SP. EdRo's audition is this weekend.
If the price is right on someone like Hellickson I could see getting one more SP. EdRo's audition is this weekend.
I agree. It just seemed those two or three posters actually may have seen something we did not.
They didn't see anything we didn't, they just assumed everything would turn out for the worst.
The Kelly experiment is also coming out of product testing. Never know. Maybe it'll pleasantly surprise.
Boone Logan is a FA next year and has posted an electric 11K/9 since 2012. He walks more than you would like but has brought that down to a manageable 3/9 this year.
If you can get him for quantity over quality (no Swihart or top 5) he could be the final piece.
If you can get him for quantity over quality (no Swihart or top 5) he could be the final piece.