Paul George to OKC

[Eddie Jurak]

Not sure I agree with the blanket statement that he's a ball stopper. He was the only creator they had last year, but his kick out passes showed advanced vision in my opinion. It just doesn't make a ton of sense to hit an open Marcus Smart when the coaching staff probably preferred a contested shot from IT.

Yeah, I would not call IT a ball stopper or even a ball dominant PG. I mean, the latter is something he's been on the Celtics, but a lot of that is the lack of another scoring option.

Adding more playmaking or to-to scoring to the Celtics won't hurt IT's offense, because he is such a devastating shooter off the catch and because teams only stop him by throwing everything they have at him, which would be harder to do if the Celtics had more offensive talent. I guess IT might suck in the Triangle, but in any modern NBA offense he'll thrive.

The reason to be hesitant about committing long-term to him is entirely about defense for me.

 

[Granite Sox]

I'm here in Indianapolis today on business. With all the salty tears that Colts fans continue to shed towards the NEP, I would LOVE to see the collective masses lose their minds if we "steal" PG on top of favorite son Brad Stevens and local boy Gordon Hayward (grew up in Indy suburbs). It would rip out the locals' professional sports heart.

 

[chilidawg]

If Ainge wouldn't give up the #3 pick for butler it seems unlikely that he would for George. I'd have to think Crowder, Bradley and the LAL/Sac pick would be the most he'd give up.

If we did get George and signed him to an extension, i'd pass on Hayward or Griffin, and keep some future flexibility. Horford George Tatum Brown IT would be a dynamic group going forward.

 

[bosockboy]

Adding George and he keeping him out of LA also significantly boosts the chances of getting in that 2-5 pick window next year and thus very likely having two top 5 picks.

 

[the moops]

If you aren't signing Hayward than you don't need to send out any salary. Could do a strict draft pick plus Yabusele or something for George.

 

[RedOctober3829]

If you aren't signing Hayward than you don't need to send out any salary. Could do a strict draft pick plus Yabusele or something for George.

If the Celtics are not clearing a max salary space then you could send them draft picks plus Amir Johnson, Jordan Mickey, and D Jackson if all they cared about is clearing cap space and adding picks. If they want players it's much different.

 

[the moops]

I can't imagine them wanting Avery or Crowder all that much so flipping them to another team for assets to send to IND would be the best course I think.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Isn't an extension limited to 120% of his current salary? That is nowhere near the 29 that he could sign for next off-season.

I think the gist of the article from CelticsHub is that if the Cs have cap space, they can use that cap space to renegotiate PG's contract this year and then base an extension off the higher amount. I don't study the cap very hard but from the little research I've done with IT4's contract, that analysis sounds correct.

 

[JCizzle]

Adding George and he keeping him out of LA also significantly boosts the chances of getting in that 2-5 pick window next year and thus very likely having two top 5 picks.

Which also means that it's a bit counter productive to include that pick in any potential deal for him. If PG stays away from the LAL, then this pick becomes 90% of the value of the BKN pick.

 

[the moops]

I view the LAL pick as being more valuable than the BRK pick.

You get two shots at it being a high lottery pick rather than one shot. Lakers are still a very bad team, and SAC is looking even worse over the next couple years.

 

[bosockboy]

I view the LAL pick as being more valuable than the BRK pick.

You get two shots at it being a high lottery pick rather than one shot. Lakers are still a very bad team, and SAC is looking even worse over the next couple years.

Except Brooklyn really isn't a shot, it's damn near guaranteed.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Except Brooklyn really isn't a shot, it's damn near guaranteed.

And Sacramento has picked 6-10 over the past decade as many times as they've picked 1-5. And Brooklyn pick is fully unprotected. No way I value Lakers/Kings over Nets 2018. That is arguably the most valuable non-player asset in the NBA.

 

[sezwho]

nm

 

[nighthob]

I'm sticking with my theory all along that we traded down to 3 for the purpose of moving the player (Tatum) which is why we replaced it with the future high lottery Lakers/Kings pick.

I actually suspect that it's Jaylen Brown outbound, since he's a wing and Boston would be suddenly loaded there. Tatum at least profiles as a swing forward, like the guy they drafted at #37. If I had to hazard a guess, it's going to be Crowder, Bradley, and Brown for George. If Boston can execute an Olynyk sign & trade for minor draft assets, they might toss in that and the Clippers #1 to sweeten the pot.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

More from Pritchard via Doyle:
Pritchard on PG offers: "There’s a lot of options where we take back players, potential all-stars and all-stars, that keep us competitive."

I would guess the "all-star" would have to include Kevin Love.

 

[JCizzle]

I actually suspect that it's Jaylen Brown outbound, since he's a wing and Boston would be suddenly loaded there. Tatum at least profiles as a swing forward, like the guy they drafted at #37. If I had to hazard a guess, it's going to be Crowder, Bradley, and Brown for George. If Boston can execute an Olynyk sign & trade for minor draft assets, they might toss in that and the Clippers #1 to sweeten the pot.

For whatever it's worth, it sure doesn't sound like they have any intention of moving Jaylen. As with anything Danny, it could just be posturing though.

 

[nighthob]

The more I think about it, the less appealing the idea of George+Hayward is. I mean, I'd love watching them play together, but I think it means a very short, inexperienced bench, and really restricts what they can do over the next few years (if they re-sign George).

If you have Hayward, George, and Horford in your starting lineup, and Smart, Zizic, Rozier, and Tatum around them, who gives a shit how good the 11-17 roster spots are? When the games count the only difference between those guys and you is that they'll be watching the games from better seats. Paul George >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> JaMychal Green, and I say that as probably the biggest JMG fan on this board.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

If you have Hayward, George, and Horford in your starting lineup, and Smart, Zizic, Rozier, and Tatum around them, who gives a shit how good the 11-17 roster spots are? When the games count the only difference between those guys and you is that they'll be watching the games from better seats. Paul George >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> JaMychal Green, and I say that as probably the biggest JMG fan on this board.

Also easily supplemented by the BK pick, other picks down the road, and MLE vets and so on.

 

[BaseballJones]

I get that George is a slightly better all-around player than Hayward.

George (27 yrs old, 6'9", 220 lbs):
23.7 points
6.6 rebounds
3.3 assists
1.6 steals
0.4 blocks
2.9 turnovers
46.1% fg
39.3% 3pt
53.3% efg
89.8% ft
7.1 win shares
2.8 box +/-
3.2 VORP

Hayward (27 yrs old, 6'8", 226 lbs):
21.9 points
5.4 rebounds
3.5 assists
1.0 steals
0.3 blocks
1.9 turnovers
47.1% fg
39.8% 3pt
53.6% efg
84.4% ft
10.4 win shares
4.2 box +/-
4.0 VORP

I mean, it's very, very close. But acquiring George costs you money (to extend) AND a ton of players and/or picks. Acquiring Hayward only costs you money. And by drafting Tatum, I don't see how it makes sense to get BOTH George AND Hayward, so to me, it's an either-or scenario. And I don't really see the case for George over Hayward given what it would cost the Celtics.

I guess the one advantage to George here is that by trading for him, you're guaranteed to acquire him, but with Hayward, you're just one player in the free agent market.

 

[BigSoxFan]

For whatever it's worth, it sure doesn't sound like they have any intention of moving Jaylen. As with anything Danny, it could just be posturing though.

I would be disappointed if it weren't posturing. Jaylen Brown isn't anywhere close to "hang up if mentioned" good. We all love Jaylen and his apparent work ethic but what does he give us that we wouldn't be able to replace relatively easily and/or fill with current players?

Horford
George
Hayward
Smart
IT

with Zizic/Tatum/Rozier and maybe Yabusele and some Jerebko types off the bench would be quite intriguing. And you'd presumably still have Nets 2018 and Lakers/Kings as well to use and/or trade if a white whale became available.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

More from Pritchard via Doyle:
Pritchard on PG offers: "There’s a lot of options where we take back players, potential all-stars and all-stars, that keep us competitive."

I would guess the "all-star" would have to include Kevin Love.

IT4. He'd put asses in the seats too. And he becomes someone else's problem to sign.

 

[DJnVa]

I mean, it's very, very close. But acquiring George costs you money (to extend) AND a ton of players and/or picks.

No, it really shouldn't. That's the point.

 

[nighthob]

For whatever it's worth, it sure doesn't sound like they have any intention of moving Jaylen. As with anything Danny, it could just be posturing though.

I sort of agree with their sentiment as regards Brown, and under most circumstances it's entirely reasonable. But in this case you're discussing bringing in two of the top 15 perimeter players in the NBA. And long term I think that Tatum has a better chance of being an NBA 4 than Brown.

And this boils down to what Bird said, the Indiana ownership require that they compete every year, so the Pacers need guys that can give them present performance. But Pritchard also wants real prospects to build around for the future (because if he didn't then George for Love would have been consummated by now), and Boston is basically situated to give Indiana both. And Brown just seems like the most likely player to satisfy the future part of the equation.

 

[BaseballJones]

No, it really shouldn't. That's the point.

I guess. People are talking about Bradley and Brown and the LAL pick and I'm like...yeah, but Hayward costs ONLY MONEY. Is George that much better than Hayward? If he is, the advanced metrics don't show it.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I guess. People are talking about Bradley and Brown and the LAL pick and I'm like...yeah, but Hayward costs ONLY MONEY. Is George that much better than Hayward? If he is, the advanced metrics don't show it.

If the plan is to acquire both, you have to move Bradley and Crowder anyway. Also, I think most people see Bradley and Crowder as easily replaceable parts, or at least, easier to acquire than Paul George. AB is gone after next year anyway most likely. Crowder would be mostly redundant with George, Hayward and Tatum. Brown I'd like to keep, but if the deal was just him and one of Crowder/AB and George was signing a 3 year extension, I'm giddy.

And if Hayward doesn't sign here, it doesn't mean Boston didn't try to sign him. It may only be money, but there has to be a willingness on his behalf to play here.

 

[smastroyin]

This is why I'm a both or neither guy and if you get both you don't plan on keeping IT, or as mentioned include him. Which would suck after his great playoffs. But might be best for the 2018 and later Boston Celtics.

 

[JakeRae]

Adding George and Hayward and subtracting Crowder, Bradley, and Olynyk probably vaults us ahead of the Cavs. George and Hayward will fit perfectly together in the current NBA game. The Celtics would still have sufficient depth if you believe in the kids. The guard and wing depth is solid with Smart, Rozier, Brown, and Tatum. The big situation is a bit leaner, but I assume George will spend a lot of time at the 4 in this scenario. With starter minutes getting played by IT, Hayward, Smart, George, and Horford, Rozier and Brown stepping into bigger roles, and Tatum, Zivic and Yabusele getting more limited run as they break in, there are plenty of players to absorb minutes. Depending on what happens with the latter 3, we'd either be a bit shallow come the playoffs or very deep, but I don't think there's a huge depth concern either way. We need to create space for the rookies to play or there's no value in the picks.

 

[slamminsammya]

I get that George is a slightly better all-around player than Hayward.

The big difference is defense. Paul is a pretty great defender and with his amazing length can defend lots of positions.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

They also have Daniel Theis who can block shots and space the floor. Considering rosters expand to 17 this year, he'll probably be in the big mix and get some burn too. Or he could just be fodder.

 

[sox311]

It could get messy trying to make this trade work and freeing up the space to sign Gordon. When trading the salaries have to be within 5 million. So giving a non-guaranteed contract, Zeller, along with the true pieces of this deal help gets it to salary match while also clearing room to make max cap space.

Avery - 8,808,989
Jae - 6,796,117
Zeller -8,000,000
=23,602,106

PG13 - 19,508,958

That works out well. Am I off base here?

Remember where the offense went when Isaiah was off the court last year? Well, in this situation it will go through PG13 and/or Gordon. That would be quite the amazing improvement year over year.

 

[BaseballJones]

To me, as I've stated, I think the window is 4 years, post GS dynasty. I'm all for improving the team now as well, but I don't want to expend assets that will have a pretty good chance of being great 4 years from now. I wanted Fultz and then Hayward. I didn't get my wish. Oh well. Tatum is going to be really good I think. Brown is another guy I think highly of. 4 years from now George will be at the back end of that extension (or be done with it) and will be 31 years old. He's not the guy to lead the team post-GS dynasty, IMO. That's why I'd rather not give up the LAL pick or (God forbid) the Brooklyn pick, or even Brown.

Bradley and Crowder? Sure, no problem. Bradley, Crowder, and Boston's #1 next year? Sure.

 

[finnVT]

That works out well. Am I off base here?

It's easy to make space to give Hayward a max deal, and it's easy to make a deal for PG. It's hard to do both, and order of events starts to matter. It's *much* easier to make it work if you do Hayward first, but to do that, you have to you have to shed some cap space. This pretty much means Zeller and something, either Crowder, or Olynyk+. So those guys are already gone by the time you try to make the PG deal.

It feels like the best way to do this is probably give a QO to Olynyk, but renounce Zeller, Amir, Mickey, and trade Crowder. Depending on what you sign Tatum for, that should give you just barely enough space to offer Hayward a max deal. Then you need to find ~15.5m worth of salaries to send to IND, along with whatever assets they want. This basically has to include AB and KO's QO (I'm assuming you can trade him at this point, but I could be wrong), which gets you to 13m. If Brown's in the deal, you're fine, otherwise you're looking at something like AB+KO+Yabu+DJackson (and that's just salary balast, not necessarily any actual assets for IND outside Yabu). But you could do those 4 plus some set of picks. That works, but now you're down to a 10-man roster, IT/Smart/Brown/Rozier Hayward/Tatum/Semi PG/Horford/Zizic. That is, however, a pretty awesome top 10, and one with a lot of positional flexibility.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

It could get messy trying to make this trade work and freeing up the space to sign Gordon. When trading the salaries have to be within 5 million. So giving a non-guaranteed contract, Zeller, along with the true pieces of this deal help gets it to salary match while also clearing room to make max cap space.

Avery - 8,808,989
Jae - 6,796,117
Zeller -8,000,000
=23,602,106

PG13 - 19,508,958

That works out well. Am I off base here?

Remember where the offense went when Isaiah was off the court last year? Well, in this situation it will go through PG13 and/or Gordon. That would be quite the amazing improvement year over year.

They'd have to get all their ducks in a row and have Gordon lined up and locked in as soon as possible, as Zeller's contract becomes guaranteed on 7/2. So they better be tampering, because I wouldn't count on him not taking at least a trip to Miami.

 

[nighthob]

This is why I'm a both or neither guy and if you get both you don't plan on keeping IT, or as mentioned include him. Which would suck after his great playoffs. But might be best for the 2018 and later Boston Celtics.

Actually, if a George extension is a renegotiate & extend deal, then they need to send out more than George's salary to create the space for the extension. So Thomas, Crowder, Bradley, & Brown might be actually necessary to make the money work for an extension.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Lowe talking about the Celtics: "They are very confident they can get a star play for free(cap space) and worry about a trade later. The Celtics know how pivotal this offseason and seem very confident that someone is going to sign there."

 

[the moops]

Actually, if a George extension is a renegotiate & extend deal, then they need to send out more than George's salary to create the space for the extension. So Thomas, Crowder, Bradley, & Brown might be actually necessary to make the money work for an extension.

But all those salaries/assets need not be moved to IND. You could flip any of those guys for future picks.

 

[nighthob]

But all those salaries/assets need not be moved to IND. You could flip any of those guys for future picks.

Oh, I agree, Indy would likely want Crowder, Brown, and Thomas, but Bradley to a third team for draft assets is certainly a possibility. And, honestly, Crowder/Brown/Lil' Zeke is probably 893% better than any other offer.

 

[DavidTai]

I can't find anything to the contrary, but I think in order for Olynyk's QO to be tradeable, the player -has- to sign the QO.

It seems like the easiest way is to just trade Zeller, and Indiana can then cut him without worrying because his contract isn't guaranteed.

 

[ehaz]

This is why I'm a both or neither guy and if you get both you don't plan on keeping IT, or as mentioned include him. Which would suck after his great playoffs. But might be best for the 2018 and later Boston Celtics.

If IT became part of a George trade, would Hayweird or CP3 be the better FA target? Danny does like Chris Paul and we all know he's tried to get him before...

 

[nighthob]

I can't find anything to the contrary, but I think in order for Olynyk's QO to be tradeable, the player -has- to sign the QO.

It seems like the easiest way is to just trade Zeller, and Indiana can then cut him without worrying because his contract isn't guaranteed.

They need to renounce Zeller to sign Hayward unless Gordo's also a sign & trade transaction.

 

[the moops]

Chris Paul isn't leaving LAC. There is just way way way too much money for him in LA

 

[plucy]

I have the C's at ~$79.7m for 12 slots with Cap holds of $7.7 for Olynyk and $5.6 for Tatum. For a max FA like Hayward or Griffin, they need to be at$69.3 (+29.7 = 99).
If an RFA signs his QO, that is his contract, and there is a moratorium on trades (can't remember the length, but this was soon- to- be-old CBA. That's what Monroe did with DET.)
In his article this am Bernardoni talked about trading for George and extending him with available cap space. He would make about $5m more with a 3+1 extension than playing out the last year of his deal and signing a max 2+1 if he could start at $27m+ in 18-19. Say, Crowder, Zeller, Jackson and picks out.
But Hayward becomes a S&T in this example, so UT needs incentive(s) and about $24m in salary. Maybe Olynyk on an S&T to make up the bulk if u can include S&T's on both ends of the deal.

 

[JCizzle]

Lowe talking about the Celtics: "They are very confident they can get a star play for free(cap space) and worry about a trade later. The Celtics know how pivotal this offseason and seem very confident that someone is going to sign there."

Hngggggg. This team is so perfectly positioned both short and long term. The amount of high quality, cost controlled assets we have being mentored in a winning organization is fucking insane. We're also right there to pounce if the injury bug bites GSW or the Cavs and we maintain good health.

 

[Big John]

Let's not forget that if they start renouncing players and/or trading players for picks, there is an $815,615 cap hold for every empty roster spot below 13. It means that dumping low salaried players like Rozier and Demetrius Jackson doesn't net that much in cap savings as soon as your roster size goes below 13. I don't think second round picks count towards the 13, since they are guaranteed nothing.

Bottom line is that if they want Hayward, they will have to dump just about everyone and then trade Crowder to a team under the cap for picks or for a much lower salaried player. I can't see any other way to do it.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

To be frank, Ainge is acting like someone who KNOWS rather than just hopes that he's signing a top FA. Boston has to be wildly attractive to Hayward for several reasons. Whether or not they can also swing a trade on top of it, I feel better about free agency than I have at any point, including last summer.

 

[BigSoxFan]

To be frank, Ainge is acting like someone who KNOWS rather than just hopes that he's signing a top FA. Boston has to be wildly attractive to Hayward for several reasons. Whether or not they can also swing a trade on top of it, I feel better about free agency than I have at any point, including last summer.

Honestly, that's where I am and I'm kind of scared by it. I would be pretty surprised if Hayward ultimately chose Utah/Miami. I'm less confident about George given the complexities of the trade but I am also cautiously optimistic there as well. Given what Minnesota paid for Butler, we could have easily topped that had we wanted to.

 

[nighthob]

Bottom line is that if they want Hayward, they will have to dump just about everyone and then trade Crowder to a team under the cap for picks or for a much lower salaried player. I can't see any other way to do it.

No. They can get there by trading Bradley into someone's cap space and renouncing the free agents/non-guaranteed deals. And none of those guys are necessary long term. And thanks to that contract, Bradley isn't tough to trade for picks.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

They'd have to get all their ducks in a row and have Gordon lined up and locked in as soon as possible, as Zeller's contract becomes guaranteed on 7/2. So they better be tampering, because I wouldn't count on him not taking at least a trip to Miami.

Free agency doesn't begin until July 6, so they'll renounce Zeller on July 1 whether or not they have a deal with MichaelBayward.

 

[sezwho]

Honestly, that's where I am and I'm kind of scared by it. I would be pretty surprised if Hayward ultimately chose Utah/Miami. I'm less confident about George given the complexities of the trade but I am also cautiously optimistic there as well. Given what Minnesota paid for Butler, we could have easily topped that had we wanted to.

What in Ainge's behavior makes you and JZ feel he has a bird in hand? Clearly he wants to be able to get to max salary in a jiffy, but I still feel like he is essentially middling everything and keeping every option open.

 

[Big John]

No. They can get there by trading Bradley into someone's cap space and renouncing the free agents/non-guaranteed deals. And none of those guys are necessary long term. And thanks to that contract, Bradley isn't tough to trade for picks.

Well sure. But either Bradley or Crowder has to go if they want Hayward. If they also want George, they will want to keep the one that Indiana prefers. That's probably Crowder because he's cost controlled, but you never know.