Pats sign JuJu Smith-Schuster

[Deathofthebambino]

Just for fun, the 2018 Pats:

* Edelman: 74 / 850
* White 87 / 751
* Gordon 40 / 720
* Gronk 47 / 682
* Hogan 35 / 532
* Dorsett 32 / 290
* Pattersoni 21 / 247

(the flip side would be 2011, when Welker, Gronk, and Sweetleaf combined for 291 / 3806 (or add in Branch for 342 / 4506)

Exactly.

This is kind of a ridiculous conversation. The only reason you see a distribution like this is because of injuries/games played.

Those 2018 Pats:

Edelman: 12 games played
White: 16 games
Gordon: 11 games
Gronk: 11 games
Hogan: 16 games
Dorsett: 16 games
Patterson: 15 games

If Edelman, Gronk and Gordon play 16 games each, everyone else's numbers change.

You don't base "busts" on yards, without factoring in injuries. In 2018, I believe Gronk was the highest paid TE in the NFL. Was he a "bust" because he only played 11 regular season games? I would say no.

 

[BaseballJones]

Exactly.

This is kind of a ridiculous conversation. The only reason you see a distribution like this is because of injuries/games played.

Those 2018 Pats:

Edelman: 12 games played
White: 16 games
Gordon: 11 games
Gronk: 11 games
Hogan: 16 games
Dorsett: 16 games
Patterson: 15 games

If Edelman, Gronk and Gordon play 16 games each, everyone else's numbers change.

You don't base "busts" on yards, without factoring in injuries. In 2018, I believe Gronk was the highest paid TE in the NFL. Was he a "bust" because he only played 11 regular season games? I would say no.

I'm not sure who this is aimed at, but just for clarification, my entire point here is that even if Mac has a huge year passing, there's no way to distribute the receptions and yards and touchdowns such that there aren't SOME guys who would be considered "disappointments" or even "busts". It's just not really possible. Mac threw for 316 last week and still there are media people getting all over JuJu as a disappointment. SOMEONE is going to be a "disappointment."

 

[IdiotKicker]

I'm not sure who this is aimed at, but just for clarification, my entire point here is that even if Mac has a huge year passing, there's no way to distribute the receptions and yards and touchdowns such that there aren't SOME guys who would be considered "disappointments" or even "busts". It's just not really possible. Mac threw for 316 last week and still there are media people getting all over JuJu as a disappointment. SOMEONE is going to be a "disappointment."

I don’t think that’s true. Disappointment isn’t based on production alone. It’s based on production, expected value, and the manner in which the production occurs. Getting 20 catches from Boutte is completely different from 20 catches from Thornton. I mean, JuJu and Douglas have basically the same stats and we’re all very encouraged by Douglas, and yet not by JuJu. There’s more to it than just the production.

 

[BaseballJones]

I don’t think that’s true. Disappointment isn’t based on production alone. It’s based on production, expected value, and the manner in which the production occurs. Getting 20 catches from Boutte is completely different from 20 catches from Thornton. I mean, JuJu and Douglas have basically the same stats and we’re all very encouraged by Douglas, and yet not by JuJu. There’s more to it than just the production.

Well then I'd ask you to do the thought experiment. Distribute 400 receptions and 4,500 pass yards to the NE skill position players in a way that nobody would be considered a disappointment - BY THE PRESS. That was a key element here. I'd guess that BB isn't disappointed in JuJu.

 

[rodderick]

Well then I'd ask you to do the thought experiment. Distribute 400 receptions and 4,500 pass yards to the NE skill position players in a way that nobody would be considered a disappointment - BY THE PRESS. That was a key element here. I'd guess that BB isn't disappointed in JuJu.

Kendrick Bourne - 800 yards
Parker - 650 yards
Juju - 850 yards
Henry - 600 yards
Gesicki - 550 yards.

And you have more than a thousand yards to spare. None of the other receivers have any expectations attached to them for 2023, I'd say.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I'm not sure who this is aimed at, but just for clarification, my entire point here is that even if Mac has a huge year passing, there's no way to distribute the receptions and yards and touchdowns such that there aren't SOME guys who would be considered "disappointments" or even "busts". It's just not really possible. Mac threw for 316 last week and still there are media people getting all over JuJu as a disappointment. SOMEONE is going to be a "disappointment."

It's not aimed at anybody. What I'm saying is that if Ty Montgomery catches 15 passes this season, and Zeke catches 25, but Rhamondre catches 100, nobody is going to call Zeke and Ty a bust or a disappointment. It's just that Rhamondre stayed healthy and caught more balls. If Rhamondre goes down in week 8, and only catches 40 balls, but the other guys catch 30 each, same thing.

I don't think anyone is calling JuJu a bust yet. I think people are concerned that JuJu is going to be a bust. There are 32 teams in the NFL, JuJu is the 33rd highest paid WR, and the highest paid on this team. He was 100% brought in to be the #1 on this roster. If he finishes the season with 65 catches for 800 yards ad 4td's, and Bourne goes down or Tyquan never amounts to anything or Parker has the same year as last year, then yeah, he's a bust.

The point is all of these guys will not be healthy all year. So we can't judge them based on numbers alone. We have to judge them based on what they did given their situation throughout the season. At this point in his career, Tyquan is a bust. At this point through week one, JuJu doesn't look like a #1. Douglas looks better than he should, but there's a long way to go.

Nobody is looking at the #3 receiver in Minnesota as a bust because he only caught xx amount of balls, when JJ is catching 120. If JJ gets hurt and that same #3 can't step up, that's when they become a disappointment.

 

[IdiotKicker]

Kendrick Bourne - 800 yards
Parker - 650 yards
Juju - 850 yards
Henry - 600 yards
Gesicki - 550 yards.

And you have more than a thousand yards to spare. None of the other receivers have any expectations attached to them for 2023, I'd say.

I’ll toss in Thornton having 400-500 yards as well. But other than that, anything else is gravy. If your top 4 WRs are healthy, no one expects anything out of Boutte or Douglas, and I don’t think anyone has a target for receiving yards by an RB. If they’re not healthy, as @Deathofthebambino notes, then you get wider distributions, but it still is ultimately about more than just the raw numbers for each guy. With JuJu, my biggest concern is not the production alone. It’s the lack of snaps from a key off-season acquisition. You aren’t paying $8.5M a year for 50% of the snaps on offense. So what’s causing that, and will it continue? Because the guy you are paying that much is not someone who should be getting written out of being on the field for gameplans because of matchup problems.

 

[GPO Man]

It was definitely a kick in the nuts watching Meyers play so well on Sunday.

 

[Super Nomario]

I said this way back when but I'll reiterate it here. There's only one ball to go around. Mac threw for 316 yards last week. If he threw for 316 every week, that's 5,372 yards, which would be amazing. But how would you divide those up by this list of players, such that there isn't SOMEBODY who looks like a "bust"? (a draft bust, a bad FA signing, a terrible trade, etc.)

The issue isn't really the production, which is not great, but good receivers have 33 yard games all the time. The issue is he wasn't even on the field almost half the time, including the final do-or-die drive. Sometimes it's not your week to get the targets, that's fine. But his playing time especially in key situations, makes me concerned that the team is starting to sour on him (or more likely perhaps, concerned about his knee, aligning with Breer's comments a week or two ago).

 

[BaseballJones]

I’ll toss in Thornton having 400-500 yards as well. But other than that, anything else is gravy. If your top 4 WRs are healthy, no one expects anything out of Boutte or Douglas, and I don’t think anyone has a target for receiving yards by an RB. If they’re not healthy, as @Deathofthebambino notes, then you get wider distributions, but it still is ultimately about more than just the raw numbers for each guy. With JuJu, my biggest concern is not the production alone. It’s the lack of snaps from a key off-season acquisition. You aren’t paying $8.5M a year for 50% of the snaps on offense. So what’s causing that, and will it continue? Because the guy you are paying that much is not someone who should be getting written out of being on the field for gameplans because of matchup problems.

If Boutte or Douglas have just a handful of catches, there’s gonna be people in the press saying, see, BB still can’t draft WRs.

 

[BaseballJones]

Kendrick Bourne - 800 yards
Parker - 650 yards
Juju - 850 yards
Henry - 600 yards
Gesicki - 550 yards.

And you have more than a thousand yards to spare. None of the other receivers have any expectations attached to them for 2023, I'd say.

650 yards from Parker would be considered a disappointment by some. Gesicki with 550 yards would be considered a disappointment by some. Thornton with just a handful definitely would be considered a disappointment.

And remember… this is me projecting these feelings on the media. Some people are just going to focus on the guys without the numbers, and say they’re a disappointment. Even if the offense as a whole is doing well.

 

[BaseballJones]

Anyway, disregard. Not worth really fighting about.

 

[Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt]

Pop Douglas is quickly going to emerge as the Patriots #3 WR. His skill set is different from pretty much anyone else and so far he has been...not perfect, but very, very good.

EDIT: fucked up

 

[azsoxpatsfan]

We disagree enough in these threads that we probably don’t have to argue against made up possible universe media talking points. Especially when those talking points are that 550 yards from a tight end whose career average is 525 yards would be disappointing.

Pop Douglas is quickly going to emerge as the Patriots #3 WR. His skill set is different from pretty much anyone else and so far he has been...not perfect, but very, very good.

Yea I was super encouraged by what I saw from him on Sunday, the trio of Bourne Parker and Pop isnt a bad one. Also, where did the nickname Pop originate from?

 

[joe dokes]

Likewise, under his new deal, JuJu's AAV is 32nd out of all WRs - skewed up because not all of them signed this year, but it is what it is. When you spend to that level, you expect your investment to at least play more than 54% of the snaps. This is not even a production question - it's a "Why are you not on the field" question at the moment. Furthermore, it's complicated by the fact that you could have paid a few million more to get a guy who did play all the snaps, knew your system, had the trust of your QB, and despite not having a cap crunch, you decided to spend less. Those are the issues. JJSS isn't getting WR1 money. But he's getting paid a lot, and if he can't get on the field and produce, then it's a very reasonable question as to why you spent that money, when you had someone you could have fit under the cap who both got on the field and produced in accordance with what he's now getting paid.

In theory your point makes perfect sense. And I dont want to start creating hypothetical games, etc. But if Meyers had been on the roster in week 1, what changes? We assume he plays more, someone else plays less--and thus one of those someone elses has less production. I *think* that's sort of what @Baseball Jones is driving at.

 

[rodderick]

650 yards from Parker would be considered a disappointment by some. Gesicki with 550 yards would be considered a disappointment by some. Thornton with just a handful definitely would be considered a disappointment.

And remember… this is me projecting these feelings on the media. Some people are just going to focus on the guys without the numbers, and say they’re a disappointment. Even if the offense as a whole is doing well.

Disagree. Unless "by some" is carrying a lot of the weight here, Parker has averaged 658 yards per season in his career and Gesicki 523, I don't think most are expecting substantially more production and if they are, maybe they're overrating those guys a bit. Thornton doing anything would be considered a positive, I think everyone is very down on him in general.

 

[IdiotKicker]

In theory your point makes perfect sense. And I dont want to start creating hypothetical games, etc. But if Meyers had been on the roster in week 1, what changes? We assume he plays more, someone else plays less--and thus one of those someone elses has less production. I *think* that's sort of what @Baseball Jones is driving at.

It’s not the production issue. I’ve noted this repeatedly. It’s the 54% of snaps. No one cares if Pop only plays 20 snaps because he’s a late round rookie and JuJu or Meyers is getting those snaps. If you are paying $8.5M per year, which at the very least is WR2 money, then you need to be on the field for 90%+ of snaps. Like, unless you’re going 31 or 13 personnel, your WR2 should basically always be on the field unless he needs a breather for a play here and there. He played 54% of snaps. If it’s because of the game plan, then you overpaid because he’s not a WR2. If his knee is really shot, then you overpaid. Let’s see how it works out, but the snap count is my big issue at the moment more than the number of targets or catches. Those can be matchup-dependent and one game doesn’t mean much. But 54% of snaps? Yikes.

 

[BaseballJones]

In theory your point makes perfect sense. And I dont want to start creating hypothetical games, etc. But if Meyers had been on the roster in week 1, what changes? We assume he plays more, someone else plays less--and thus one of those someone elses has less production. I *think* that's sort of what @Baseball Jones is driving at.

Yes, that’s exactly my point. And in the good hypothetical that someone else posted above, what if one of the receivers goes off for a big year? It means other players have even less. There’s only one ball to go around and it’s very very difficult to figure out how to distribute those receptions and yards in a way that somebody isn’t looked at as a disappointment. I guess theoretically it’s possible but everything has to work just right for that to occur. I think there’s been some good responses to my contention, and I want to give them to do respect they deserve. I still think my point is valid but I also think , the responses regarding snap counts, etc. is valid as well.

 

[joe dokes]

It’s not the production issue. I’ve noted this repeatedly. It’s the 54% of snaps. No one cares if Pop only plays 20 snaps because he’s a late round rookie and JuJu or Meyers is getting those snaps. If you are paying $8.5M per year, which at the very least is WR2 money, then you need to be on the field for 90%+ of snaps. Like, unless you’re going 31 or 13 personnel, your WR2 should basically always be on the field unless he needs a breather for a play here and there. He played 54% of snaps. If it’s because of the game plan, then you overpaid because he’s not a WR2. If his knee is really shot, then you overpaid. Let’s see how it works out, but the snap count is my big issue at the moment more than the number of targets or catches. Those can be matchup-dependent and one game doesn’t mean much. But 54% of snaps? Yikes.

I get it. But lets say Meyers is that $8.5M guy and lets say the "other guys" are just out-producing him (or getting open more often, or whatever measurement that applies) and that, therefore, Meyers's snapcount goes down. Did they overpay on Meyers or just get surprised that they actually drafted some capable WRs? IOW...there's a 3rd possibility other than gameplan or injury.
(All that said, your suggestion that he may be hurt or just plain ineffective is not unreasonable. Time will tell.)

 

[lexrageorge]

It’s not the production issue. I’ve noted this repeatedly. It’s the 54% of snaps. No one cares if Pop only plays 20 snaps because he’s a late round rookie and JuJu or Meyers is getting those snaps. If you are paying $8.5M per year, which at the very least is WR2 money, then you need to be on the field for 90%+ of snaps. Like, unless you’re going 31 or 13 personnel, your WR2 should basically always be on the field unless he needs a breather for a play here and there. He played 54% of snaps. If it’s because of the game plan, then you overpaid because he’s not a WR2. If his knee is really shot, then you overpaid. Let’s see how it works out, but the snap count is my big issue at the moment more than the number of targets or catches. Those can be matchup-dependent and one game doesn’t mean much. But 54% of snaps? Yikes.

I don't think the overpay is a huge issue given the team has quite a bit of cap space this year and next. It's really the judgment of who would be better fit on the team. If (healthy) Myers has a better season than (healthy) JuJu, then there was a misjudgment in talent. And while the knee injury was known, the longer term implications were not easily discerned at the time of signing; sometimes shit happens.

Also important to note that JuJu was signed prior to the draft. And if Douglas and Boutte pass him on the depth chart because they become really good, we can forgive the overpay. Yes, I know that Boutte failed to get his feet inbounds twice; I'm sure the coaches are working on that very thing with him.

 

[Jinhocho]

I guess I could see the Pats wanting to move on from Meyers. He was steady, reliable, and at times really good. I thought one reason they moved on from him (pure speculation) was that he was a voice that ran at times against BB narrative (strongly supporting mac, comments about coaches - soft ones). I think they wanted to reset things around Mac this year and it partially explains the lack of interest in Meyers and Harris. Of course, for Meyers, there was also the lateral disaster that went expressely against what they had been told to do on that play. He also just had his second confirmed concussion this week and got his bell rung several other times. Meyers struck me as consistent but not explosive. It will be interesting to see if a move to a bigger play focused offense will help him in Vegas.

I was not a huge fan of the Juju signing. He is inconsistent (something Meyers is not) but offers a big upside at times. He has the dreaded knee injury history. I could see what they wanted from him - more slants, more yards after the catch, even if he was not the number 1 volume guy that Meyers was. The offense definitely needs to score more - so I can see why they pushed for someone with bigger TD potential.

They are basically the same age, but Meyers has 10 total touchdowns and Juju 29.

I think it is harsh to judge after one game, but all in all I am excited to see what Juju brings to the team over the course of the year. Meyers was my favorite guy on the offense, but I do not think he was an Edelman or Welker etc so am ok with them trying to replace him with someone who is speedier, has more big play potential, and can help the offense move where they want it to go.

 

[rodderick]

I just don't see the speed. He looked like he had zero burst out there and the beat reported similar impressions from training camp. That's what I'm concerned about.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I just don't see the speed. He looked like he had zero burst out there and the beat reported similar impressions from training camp. That's what I'm concerned about.

Same here. When I saw him running in a #7 jersey, I thought I was watching Leonard Fournette come out of the backfield. He was so incredibly slow against Philly. He has generally been good at finding soft spots in zones, and maybe that will be his role here, because I don't see him being of much more value if he doesn't get better physically.

 

[Jinhocho]

Meyers is out with a concussion this week.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Had a discussion with a few of you elsewhere that merits inclusion here but apologies for having to re-read it.

BoB prioritizes YAC from his slots and Z’s. Traditionally the Patriots have too. Meyers was a good player for them but didn’t fit into what they were trying to do. The idea was that JJSS is more of the YAC guy and fits into the offense better. They also spent less on him on an AAV level than Meyers. So they replaced Meyers with a better scheme fit. They didn’t have the budget in 2022 to go after better guys and he was coming off his worst year as a pro. The issue here is that the idea of Juju might not be the guy they thought he was when they signed him because of injury.

Juju, again in theory, gives you a better catch radius, better blocking, and can make better contested catches than Douglas with a sacrifice to vertical route ability and some explosiveness. But if Juju has no explosiveness and his YAC is not great then he is no longer useful to the scheme. Might as well live with Douglas's flaws and utilize him to his maximum.

Meyers btw did some work at slot and as a Z for them and occasionally lined up as an X. The FA market for WRs was terrible in 2023 and in 2022 they didn't have the money to upgrade. The best thing going forward for them is if their rookies develop and they can draft a splashy WR in the upcoming draft. This is a very good WR class vs last years. Same for OT but that's a separate thread.

 

[Dogman]

There are also 6-7 big name WR FA after this season (Evans and Higgins, to name two). That may have a played a role in decision making at the WR position. Moreover, the jury is still out on Mac but I think we should be encouraged by what we saw from Mac and the offense last Sunday. That may mean taking a long look at the available FA and use of cap.

 

[GPO Man]

5-28 vs Miami. This acquisition might actually be worse than the Sanu trade in absurdly.

 

[deythur]

KC could really use him. Lets give them a call!

 

[rodderick]

I get that Douglas made an awful play and you just can't throw him back out there immediately, but man, they really need him in the slot. Every game gives me more concerns over Juju.

 

[ifmanis5]

He's about as spry as late period Artis Gilmore. Ship him out and bring up the kids.

 

[Arroyoyo]

He’s clearly cooked. How’d he pass his physical?

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

I think a little of what we’re seeing is poor scheming. He’s essentially being used the same as Bourne. Both of them being on the field limits what you can do effectively. Jujus game is more long speed than short area quickness. He needs to build up, then he’s good at making people miss. He’s getting the ball in a crowd and getting tackled. Every receiver on this team is unfortunately because they’re having to come back for every ball. Juju needs to be hit in stride or run on a jet sweep. He’d almost be better used in the Cordarelle role. Line him up in the backfield and we’ll see if he’s actually cooked.

 

[GPO Man]

1/5 against the Jets. He’s the Chris Sale of the Patriots. At least Sale was useful this year for his 100 innings.

 

[GPO Man]

.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Glad we got rid of Meyers for the corpse of JuJu.

 

[radsoxfan]

Not only does he look bad, but we keep attempting 1 on 1/jump balls to him on critical 3rd downs.

He and Mac have no chemistry and JuJu has no burst. Maybe he will bounce back, maybe not.

But no need to double down on a likely mistake by forcing him the ball at every key spot.

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

3 years and $33 million. Anybody know when it's actually feasible to cut him?

 

[greek_gawd_of_walks]

At this point, you have to find out what Boutte has. Juju has been bad. You'll have to live with the Philly results, growing pains and all, but he got targets, as limited as they were. See what you have. Juju looks cooked cooked.

 

[Cellar-Door]

3 years and $33 million. Anybody know when it's actually feasible to cut him?

Anytime after this year 12M dead cap so only an extra 1.6 versus keeping him

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

Anytime after this year 12M dead cap so only an extra 1.6 versus keeping him

Thanks. So not as bad as it could be since it doesn't seem like the Pats are very good with or without "good" JuJu.

 

[8slim]

Terrible signing. He’s beyond cooked. Can’t wait til they can get his money off the books.

 

[Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt]

I believe I heard Evan Lazar say that the deal isn't walk-away-from-able until after NEXT year.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Why is this organization so awful at acquiring veteran WR?

 

[Mystic Merlin]

I believe I heard Evan Lazar say that the deal isn't walk-away-from-able until after NEXT year.

Eh. If they designate Juju as a post-6/1 cut they save a million in net cap dollars with a dead cap hit of about 9.5M in 2024, and they’re scheduled to have a ton of cap space anyways. They can move on if they decide he’s cooked.

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

Eh. If they designate Juju as a post-6/1 cut they save a million in net cap dollars with a dead cap hit of about 9.5M in 2024, and they’re scheduled to have a ton of cap space anyways. They can move on if they decide he’s cooked.

Ouch - 9.5M cap hit next year? I take back my "not so bad" comment.

 

[BaseballJones]

Why is this organization so awful at acquiring veteran WR?

Welker
Moss
Caldwell (yes he was pretty good for them)
Amendola
Hogan
LaFell
Branch (second time on the team, and while he wasn't as good as he used to be, that was a good addition)

They've had a bunch of good veteran WR acquisitions.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

Adam Thielen signed for basically the same money and had almost as many yards in today's first half than Juju has had all year.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Welker
Moss
Caldwell (yes he was pretty good for them)
Amendola
Hogan
LaFell
Branch (second time on the team, and while he wasn't as good as he used to be, that was a good addition)

They've had a bunch of good veteran WR acquisitions.

All of those guys were signed/traded for like a decade or longer ago. Cooks was another one. Whatever they’re doing lately clearly isn’t working though.

 

[8slim]

Yeah, let’s just use an asterisk* in these WR gripes that signifies *past 4 years.

 

[BaseballJones]

All of those guys were signed/traded for like a decade or longer ago. Cooks was another one. Whatever they’re doing lately clearly isn’t working though.

Bourne is a good pickup. He's solid. He got put in Patricia's doghouse last year but he's been solid.