Pats QB Options

[Cellar-Door]

His 40 was averageish, as you say. His 3-cone and shuttle were also pretty much average. But having average speed and agility at 6'3" 228 pounds is really impressive. He has an 8.45 RAS. But if you don't consider size part of the physical traits, fine: what I'm really objecting to is characterizing him as polished. He wasn't and isn't, and obviously he wasn't a high-floor guy by any stretch of the imagination.


What you're describing is floor, not ceiling. I agree some guys lack the requisite arm strength to be starting NFL QBs, but that just means guys with questionable arms have low floors. For guys with adequate arm strength, I don't think it has much impact on ceiling. Drew Brees had a top-10 all-time career with an arm that was no better than average and often worse. Denver Peyton Manning had a terrible arm and was still very effective until his last season.

No I'm describing ceiling. Your ceiling is the best you can be, and if your arm strength is below average there is a limit to how good you can be. Floor for basically all draft picks is "can't play in the NFL" and while really terrible arm strength might matter there, it does less than it does what your ceiling is.

I'm fine with calling Harry unpolished, though I thought I remember his polish being a selling point at draft time....
looking at that RAS, you'd see that his size and bench are driving that score, his splits are well below average as is his 3 cone, Shuttle is on the lower end of average..
That's a mediocre athlete.

Edit- looked up some pre-draft writeups.. mixed opinions on his polish, almost all agreed he was an uninspiring athlete other than his size/strength.

 

[Super Nomario]

if your arm strength is below average there is a limit to how good you can be.

Again, I think Drew Brees is a pretty strong counter-example to this point, as is late-career Manning. Ceiling at QB, I would argue, is mostly defined by mental traits and technical traits. Brees had a weak arm but is arguably the most accurate QB of all time. Manning was as smart as any QB ever, which helped him thrive even after he lost the arm strength he had in his younger years.

 

[johnmd20]

Again, I think Drew Brees is a pretty strong counter-example to this point, as is late-career Manning. Ceiling at QB, I would argue, is mostly defined by mental traits and technical traits. Brees had a weak arm but is arguably the most accurate QB of all time. Manning was as smart as any QB ever, which helped him thrive even after he lost the arm strength he had in his younger years.

Peyton had a pretty solid arm for most of his career, until his last season when he had no arm whatsoever.

But in his final two years before the cliff, (2013 and 2014) he had 55 and 39 TDs and 5477 and 4727 yards. And his Y/A and AY/A in both seasons were both above his career averages. That's not just smarts, he was a weapon. And then in 2015, those numbers were significantly below his averages. And it was clear he could barely throw the ball. Alas, he won the SB that year.

 

[Super Nomario]

Peyton had a pretty solid arm for most of his career, until his last season when he had no arm whatsoever.

But in his final two years before the cliff, (2013 and 2014) he had 55 and 39 TDs and 5477 and 4727 yards. And his Y/A and AY/A in both seasons were both above his career averages. That's not just smarts, he was a weapon. And then in 2015, those numbers were significantly below his averages. And it was clear he could barely throw the ball. Alas, he won the SB that year.

He had no arm whatsoever his last year in Denver, but has arm was well below average in 2013 and 2014 when he put up those monster numbers (2012, too). He never got back his pre-2011 arm strength after multiple neck surgeries.

 

[SMU_Sox]

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/JC1053/status/1383079115490611200


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/AllbrightNFL/status/1383079420328611876


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/AllbrightNFL/status/1383084795371130880


The Draft Industrial Complex really moving off the Jones at 3 train back to the Jones at 15 train.

Not sure anyone but me and a few others realize it but John BLM is me . You’re damn right I follow Allbright. Guy doesn’t have NEP connections but he has very solid league connections. Had the second most accurate mock last year.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Honestly I don’t think arm strength is everything but Drew Brees had the worlds best accuracy and ball placement as well as timing and anticipation. He was also very mobile coming out for his day. Mac Jones doesn’t have his kind of anticipation or ball placement. Mac Jones has mediocre ball placement at best.
Edit: OK so Brees Brady Manning etc. are all in that worlds best category

 

[E5 Yaz]

They never had to find a starter in the draft, I don't think it's fair to judge them on past picks at the position (most of which were in the 4th round or later).

That's just the thing. The post I responded to said they trusted BB/JMcD to draft the position correctly. There's no evidence to support the claim. The last time either of them pick a first-round QB, it was Tebow.

I'm not saying they can't do so; only that there's no way of telling if -- in this year, in this QB class -- that they can. At best (if they deal with the Falcons), all appearances indicate that they would only be able to take the fourth QB off the board. At that point, it's an either/or situation for the remaining first-round quarterbacks.

More likely, they'll be among the teams trying to decide whether the fifth quarterback is the guy they want. Regardless of who that might be, that's a lot of uncertainty for an organization that hasn't had to draft a QB this high since this brain trust has been together.

That's what makes their draft this year so fascinating ... and why it makes those wins against the Ravens and Cardinals so maddening.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Not sure anyone but me and a few others realize it but John BLM is me . You’re damn right I follow Allbright. Guy doesn’t have NEP connections but he has very solid league connections. Had the second most accurate mock last year.

I guess my question to him would be, based on his speculation with informed sources, how does he know thatJones will make it to the Patriots without some team taking him earlier?

 

[djbayko]

Because Shanahan smiled at Fields pro day? Gotta pull in some money from the suckers I guess.

To be clear, I'm not saying he's not--but if that line movement is because Fields threw well at a pro day, then...

Yes, I do believe it has everything to do with people seeing pics of Shanny at the pro day. But BetOnline didn't set those odds - their easily persuaded players did. I don't know that the Mac Jones rumor was based on much more than a positive feedback loop in an absence of better intelligence. The betting market for #3 pick is very unstable.

 

[Harry Hooper]

That's just the thing. The post I responded to said they trusted BB/JMcD to draft the position correctly. There's no evidence to support the claim. The last time either of them pick a first-round QB, it was Tebow.

The one time BB really invested in drafting a Brady replacement (JimmyG), he got a viable guy. So, I'd revise "no evidence" to "not a large amount of evidence."

 

[SMU_Sox]

I guess my question to him would be, based on his speculation with informed sources, how does he know thatJones will make it to the Patriots without some team taking him earlier?

He either knows or is speculating that:

1) He knows Denver isn't interested at 9
2) He doesn't think or maybe he knows Carolina isn't interested at 8
3) Detroit isn't interested at 7
4) Atlanta isn't going there at 4
5) SF isn't going to take him at 3.
6) Washington doesn't want to trade up and take him.

 

[axx]

He either knows or is speculating that:

1) He knows Denver isn't interested at 9
2) He doesn't think or maybe he knows Carolina isn't interested at 8
3) Detroit isn't interested at 7
4) Atlanta isn't going there at 4
5) SF isn't going to take him at 3.
6) Washington doesn't want to trade up and take him.

Or the Patriots are trading up, but the deal won't happen until the team they are trading with is on the clock.

 

[JM3]

If the Patriots trade up for Mac Jones I might need to suspend myself for 4 games.

 

[Captaincoop]

I understand that viewpoint, and I guess I have faith that if the Pats trade up for a QB in this draft, it's because they genuinely love him as a prospect and not because he's the guy left out of the top 5 QBs.

 

[djbayko]

Can we please go back to the 49ers being dead set on picking Jones? That was more fun.

 

[Beomoose]

Can we please go back to the 49ers being dead set on picking Jones? That was more fun.

Seconded. Come one, Shanny, do Bill a solid and leave Fields on the board for him.

 

[axx]

Now there's rumors that Miami is considering trading down. I think it's entirely possible that the fourth QB goes at 4 and the fifth goes at 6. Would Miami trade down to ensure the Patriots don't get a QB?

 

[SoxVindaloo]

Now there's rumors that Miami is considering trading down. I think it's entirely possible that the fourth QB goes at 4 and the fifth goes at 6. Would Miami trade down to ensure the Patriots don't get a QB?

Miami was sitting pretty at #12 after the trade with SF with a significant haul. They then immediately gave some of that back to Philly to get back up to #6. If they were now considering trading back out someone must be offering them a premium or they are incredibly indecisive. It is mind blowing to think they would do all that to block the Pats.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Now there's rumors that Miami is considering trading down. I think it's entirely possible that the fourth QB goes at 4 and the fifth goes at 6. Would Miami trade down to ensure the Patriots don't get a QB?

No. They might trade down because someone offers a bunch of value for 6, they aren't trading down to make sure the Patriots don't get the 5th best QB in the draft

 

[axx]

Miami was sitting pretty at #12 after the trade with SF with a significant haul. They then immediately gave some of that back to Philly to get back up to #6. If they were now considering trading back out someone must be offering them a premium or they are incredibly indecisive. It is mind blowing to think they would do all that to block the Pats.

Wasn't thinking that it would be solely just to block the Patriots but could be part of the reason why they are listening and they aren't just saying "no we are taking somebody". Because yes it feels strange for them to actually trade back down.

 

[lexrageorge]

Wasn't thinking that it would be solely just to block the Patriots but could be part of the reason why they are listening and they aren't just saying "no we are taking somebody". Because yes it feels strange for them to actually trade back down.

Well, they haven't actually traded down; so far, the rumors of the Dolphins trading down are just pure speculation.

I don't think they are thinking for a minute how such an action impacts other teams.

 

[DJnVa]

Is there a link to these rumors?

 

[RedOctober3829]

Is there a link to these rumors?

View: https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1384260645126770695

 

[DJnVa]

View: https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1384260645126770695

Thanks RO.

 

[simplyeric]

Well, they haven't actually traded down; so far, the rumors of the Dolphins trading down are just pure speculation.

I don't think they are thinking for a minute how such an action impacts other teams.

I don't quite understand this supposed truism.
Nobody is claiming that the Dolphins would think "well, we're really happy to be here at 6, and are really excited about who we're going to pick. Wait..the Patriots might do something? Scrap all that! We're trading down!"'t take

I mean, entire nations have gone to war based on things like that. You guys seem to think that GM's and owners are automated balls and strikes machines and they aren't. They are irrational, ego driven, and reactionary at times. Goodell and the entire ownership group tried to hamstring the Patriots, made decisions that were not really in the league's best interest, out of spite and envy.

If they don't take "one minute" to think about how their moves relate to other teams and the resulting plusses or minuses, they'd be negligent. Let's say they are are getting a great offer, and are on the fence. Like, "wow, that's a good haul, maybe that has some benefit, lets look at it " but aren't sure. And then they run an analysis of who they think will go when, who will trade up, etc., and they realize a direct competitor in their division might end up with a noticeably better pick, they might consider it.

Maybe getting the QB off the board is worth the difference between Three firsts over three years, and two firsts and a second. Roadblocking your opponent might be worth the difference between a 2023 first and a 2023 second?

 

[Cellar-Door]

I don't quite understand this supposed truism.
Nobody is claiming that the Dolphins would think "well, we're really happy to be here at 6, and are really excited about who we're going to pick. Wait..the Patriots might do something? Scrap all that! We're trading down!"'t take

I mean, entire nations have gone to war based on things like that. You guys seem to think that GM's and owners are automated balls and strikes machines and they aren't. They are irrational, ego driven, and reactionary at times. Goodell and the entire ownership group tried to hamstring the Patriots, made decisions that were not really in the league's best interest, out of spite and envy.

If they don't take "one minute" to think about how their moves relate to other teams and the resulting plusses or minuses, they'd be negligent. Let's say they are are getting a great offer, and are on the fence. Like, "wow, that's a good haul, maybe that has some benefit, lets look at it " but aren't sure. And then they run an analysis of who they think will go when, who will trade up, etc., and they realize a direct competitor in their division might end up with a noticeably better pick, they might consider it.

Maybe getting the QB off the board is worth the difference between Three firsts over three years, and two firsts and a second. Roadblocking your opponent might be worth the difference between a 2023 first and a 2023 second?

Maybe, but doubtful. If you thought the last QB on the board was a generational player you should draft him yourself and trade Tua. If that player isn't a generational talent, you should be getting the most value you can, because the Patriots will find similar production some other way.

 

[simplyeric]

Maybe, but doubtful. If you thought the last QB on the board was a generational player you should draft him yourself and trade Tua. If that player isn't a generational talent, you should be getting the most value you can, because the Patriots will find similar production some other way.

If he's not a generational talent, and you can get a good haul, you need to weigh the options. "Just get the most valuable player you can" isn't at all what BB has done. When he picks, he does that, but he often trades down because (I assume) he perceives the overall value of the deal to be better than "that one guy" they can get.
Now, maybe BB does not ever think about what his competitors are doing in the draft in those terms. Maybe not even once. But, Maybe that sets him apart. Could be the other way around...other teams don't do it, and BB does. Or maybe they all do, or nobody does. I don't really know, and we don't either.
But, a. owners and GM's do dumb self-defeating things all the time, b. it's not a given that it's actually dumb, and c. we don't really know.
I'm not suggesting it's the firsts thing they think about, or the main thing they think about. I'm responding to the idea that they wouldn't think about at at all.

 

[nighthob]

Miami was sitting pretty at #12 after the trade with SF with a significant haul. They then immediately gave some of that back to Philly to get back up to #6. If they were now considering trading back out someone must be offering them a premium or they are incredibly indecisive. It is mind blowing to think they would do all that to block the Pats.

It also might be that their preferred target is Pitts and the rumors of Dallas trading up to #4 to get him just might be true.

 

[tims4wins]

View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1384603704704192515

 

[tims4wins]

Is this picture a concern to anyone? Every throw looks like this. Is fixable with coaching?

 

[BaseballJones]

That's an ugly motion. Contrast that with the GOAT as he brings his arm back:



Look at the difference in the way they hold the ball as they bring their arms back. Night and day. Of course, Brady has essentially perfect throwing mechanics. Which means that Fields....doesn't.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

I don’t know shit about QB throwing mechanics when it comes down to it. How does Fields’ mechanics specifically harm his throwing? His accuracy looks great to me all over the field. Is it release time?

 

[DJnVa]

I don’t know shit about QB throwing mechanics when it comes down to it. How does Fields’ mechanics specifically harm his throwing? His accuracy looks great to me all over the field. Is it release time?

And I am sure that's fixable if team thinks it's issue.

 

[BaseballJones]

I don’t know shit about QB throwing mechanics when it comes down to it. How does Fields’ mechanics specifically harm his throwing? His accuracy looks great to me all over the field. Is it release time?

Fields has a long throwing motion that makes his release a little slower than you'd like. I mean, he's an elite prospect in so many ways that they more than counterbalance this negative. But it is a negative. It should be tighter and more compact, because in the NFL, throwing windows are much smaller and aren't open for nearly as long.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I don’t know shit about QB throwing mechanics when it comes down to it. How does Fields’ mechanics specifically harm his throwing? His accuracy looks great to me all over the field. Is it release time?

To quote Mark. Mechanics only matter if they matter. With Fields you might argue they don't matter because... the guys is as accurate as they come.

Not everyone has perfect mechanics. I don't think it matters with Fields. He rarely turns the ball over too.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Now maybe it's just lying season, but man it's amazing how some NFL people just decide on a player and make up facts to justify it:
View: https://twitter.com/billbarnwell/status/1384883514546470926



I've seen a lot of this idea that Jones is the most pro-ready, and it's usually based on the idea that the ALA system is somehow going to help him be a drop back passer.... which is insane, he did the least real drop back passing of the top 5 QBs.
If you want to argue that he has a high floor that's fine (I don't agree) but his college experience isn't a good reason for it. He used RPO or PA on over half his snaps.

 

[djbayko]

Drop baby

OSU QB Justin Fields has confirmed to NFL teams during the pre-draft process that he is managing epilepsy – a neurological disorder that can cause seizures, per me and
@TomPelissero
. It has not affected football & doctors believe he’ll outgrow it as his other family members have.

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1384927702315044870

 

[E5 Yaz]

Drop baby

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1384927702315044870

You really don't want to tell someone with epilepsy to drop

 

[BillMuellerFanClub]

I haven’t seen the rumor from yesterday reported anywhere, but for the draftniks who follow this stuff, what is the general consensus on Jordan Love and where would you have him ranked with the QBs in this class?

For those that may not have seen it, a paper on a desk in a photo showed a hypothetical trade between GB and NE where the following are exchanged;

NE receives:
- Jordan Love
- #29
- #142

GB receives:
- #15

This to me is exactly the kind of trade that makes the most sense for Bill - getting an undervalued QB with upside, sliding back and getting additional capital.

 

[wilked]

View: https://twitter.com/gillettenation/status/1384261952814293005?s=20

 

[tims4wins]

If they liked Jordan Love they would have drafted him last year and not lost a year of his rookie deal. That trade makes zero, zero sense.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Jordan Love was a day 3 guy to me. He has a hose but he doesn’t read the field well at all. I heard rumors last year they both liked him and were not interested in him. Bill values decision making so my guess is this is fake.

 

[BigSoxFan]

If they liked Jordan Love they would have drafted him last year and not lost a year of his rookie deal. That trade makes zero, zero sense.

Yeah, no thanks. If they liked him, they would have taken him since nothing else has really changed.

 

[wilked]

I'm reminded of this...

 

[Cellar-Door]

So that trade would value Love as essentially the 57th pick. So around where Mond/Mills/Trask might go.
That's not an unreasonable valuation, I think he's seen as at least as good a prospect as them (but also you lose a year so... meh).

Personally I don't like Love and wouldn't value him there. I'd be countering with something like 15 + 177 for 29, 62 and Love

 

[BigJimEd]

If they liked Jordan Love they would have drafted him last year and not lost a year of his rookie deal. That trade makes zero, zero sense.

Yeah, no thanks. If they liked him, they would have taken him since nothing else has really changed.

The price has changed. I doubt this will happen but it's possible the Patriots valued him in the 2nd round last year.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Drop baby

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1384927702315044870

Wouldn't it be by random chance if it affected his football career? Is it case by case?

Or are they talking about non seizure side effects impacting football and not seizures directly? Seizures are scary shit and I imagine it impacts every aspect of someone's life directly or indirectly.

 

[tims4wins]

The price has changed. I doubt this will happen but it's possible the Patriots valued him in the 2nd round last year.

The price is more expensive in a way. Yes they would be getting back 29, but instead of using 23 on him they would be using 15. They have a rare chance at 15 to get a more talented player than normal. And they are going to throw that away to take a flyer on a guy they didn't value enough to draft at 23 last year? I'm sorry but there is No. Fucking. Way.

 

[BigSoxFan]

The price has changed. I doubt this will happen but it's possible the Patriots valued him in the 2nd round last year.

The value has changed as well given the lost year of team control and team development (not sure anyone develops that much last year though). I remain unenthused about this hypothetical trade and skeptical they are considering it.

 

[Al Zarilla]

That's an ugly motion. Contrast that with the GOAT as he brings his arm back:

View attachment 40428

Look at the difference in the way they hold the ball as they bring their arms back. Night and day. Of course, Brady has essentially perfect throwing mechanics. Which means that Fields....doesn't.

Tom wasn't above employing quarterback coaches over the years, even with Super Bowl wins in his back pocket. Tom Martinez (RIP) comes to mind first. Obviously, Fields gets everything straightened out before he releases the ball, but that is contorted all right.