Pats QB Options

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EvilEmpire

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Wandering the NFL wilderness without a good QB or a at least a young one to build around kind of sucks. Good for SF if they can thread the needle of staying competitive for a year while finding that future guy.

Edit: It sucks that they seem to be punting so early on the Payroll Efficiency Championship title though.
 
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Cellar-Door

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All the more remarkable SF would pay a king's ransom to move up to draft him.
Not really, if you think he's a franchise QB you move up and grab him. It's very much the Mahomes or Palmer model. You think long term, bring him along nice and slow so he doesn't get overwhelmed or develop bad habits, try to win with your vet, then the guy you drafted gets to step in with 2 camps and a full season of practice under his belt, far more prepared for the NFL. No reason for the "take your lumps" approach if you don't need it.
 

brendan f

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Not really, if you think he's a franchise QB you move up and grab him. It's very much the Mahomes or Palmer model. You think long term, bring him along nice and slow so he doesn't get overwhelmed or develop bad habits, try to win with your vet, then the guy you drafted gets to step in with 2 camps and a full season of practice under his belt, far more prepared for the NFL. No reason for the "take your lumps" approach if you don't need it.
It's not hard from an organizational model, but it's not that easy in terms of JG's perspective. JG likely feels "hurt" right now (if you saw what Shanahan said, he seemed to indicate this). JG doesn't know if he's more likely to play out the season, be offered in trades, or get released. He's pissed. Now maybe he plays better this way, as Shanahan indicated, but an organisation's wants for how a player will respond doesn't necessarily equal reality.
 

simplyeric

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It's all about acquisition cost. The Patriots are not going to trade significant assets for him. I'm not sure if they should want him. I can see why they would want him because he knows their system and at one time seemed the obvious heir to Brady's throne.
I wonder if ‘the system’ is what it used to be. I cannot imagine that BB has kept his system the same as he moved on from TB12 and planned around Cam.
JG doesn’t know most of the players or the system any more. He knows some of the coaches, and that’s it.
 

Harry Hooper

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Foles isn't a FA, but he's likely quite available. Forgot about the dead cap hit on him.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Rookie QBs suck, Mac Jones may be more NFL ready, he'll probably still suck.
I’m not sure that generalization is really true anymore, especially when talking about rookie QBs drafted high in the first round. It’s arguably a lot easier now to make the adjustment from college to the pros, at least for guys who played at major programs.

Among QBs taken top 12 in the last five years:

Burrow, Herbert, Tua, Kyler, Jones, Baker, Watson were decent to good, not lighting the work on fire but certainly not sucking and in many cases not far off a guy like JG’s expected level of production.

Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Trubisky, Goff, Wentz produced varying degrees of suck.

Mahomes didn’t play but I would bet all the monies on him ending up in that first group had he taken the field.

The very simple takeaway is that rookie QBs who suck are likely to just be guys who suck in general, with the exception of small school guys, who just have a much bigger adjustment to make. Major school QBs who go on to be good players are likely to be pretty good as rookies.
 
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lexrageorge

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Given that free agency is pretty much winding down, I don't know why the $25M the 49'ers pay JG matters all that much. Yeah, I know that money saved this season becomes cap space in the next, but I don't see it being that big of a deal. SF has the team they like, a veteran starting QB, and the position to draft their QB for 2022 and beyond. I fail to see how they are in a weak position.
 

Cellar-Door

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I’m not sure that generalization is really true anymore, especially when talking about rookie QBs drafted high in the first round. It’s arguably a lot easier now to make the adjustment from college to the pros, at least for guys who played at major programs.

Among QBs taken top 12 in the last five years:

Burrow, Herbert, Tua, Kyler, Jones, Baker, Watson were decent to good, not lighting the work on fire but certainly not sucking and in many cases not far off a guy like JG’s expected level of production.

Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Trubisky, Goff, Wentz produced varying degrees of suck.

Mahomes didn’t play but I would bet all the monies on him ending up in that first group had he taken the field.

The very simple takeaway is that rookie QBs who suck are likely to just be guys who suck in general, with the exception of small school guys, who just have a much bigger adjustment to make. Major school QBs who go on to be good players are likely to be pretty good as rookies.
Burrow was pretty bad. 22nd in CMP%, 28th in TD%, 26th in ANY/A, 24th in RATE, 24th in QBR. Fine for a rookie, but well below average for an NFL starter, Herbert was good,
Tua 29th in CMP%, 23rd in TD%, 28th in ANY/A, 26th in RATE, 26th in QBR,
Kyler was a bit better, mixed mid to low 20s with teens, Jones was between the two,
Baker was similar to Kyler. The other 3 QBs that year... Darnold, Allen and Rosen were probably the 3 worst qualifying QBs in the league.
Trubisky was pretty bad, Watson only played the last 6 but was good.

I would say overall you're looking at a ceiling on rookie QBs of.... Jimmy G type seasons.

I think you could do the opposite, and say.... most of the highly drafted QBs who sat all or most of their first year were good... Palmer, Rivers, ROdgers, Mahomes, (maybe Watson), only guy I can think of who went top 15, sat a year and was bad was Jake Locker.
 

scott bankheadcase

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Given that free agency is pretty much winding down, I don't know why the $25M the 49'ers pay JG matters all that much. Yeah, I know that money saved this season becomes cap space in the next, but I don't see it being that big of a deal. SF has the team they like, a veteran starting QB, and the position to draft their QB for 2022 and beyond. I fail to see how they are in a weak position.
I wish I had a like button for this post.

Not that it would matter if it were unprecedented, but this happens a lot. Smith/mahomes, farve/Rodgers, hell the giants did it with Warner and Eli, who was the no. 1 overall pick.

The niners are under the cap, the cap will explode next year and they will get out of his contract with no money then.

unfortunately for Jimmy, and really all NFL players, doesn’t really matter how he feels. He’s not going to turn down the 25m. And listen, if he plays well he’s going to stay the starter.

Do I think they’d trade him for a second round pick? Yes. Do they need to? No.
 

Jungleland

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It's not hard from an organizational model, but it's not that easy in terms of JG's perspective. JG likely feels "hurt" right now (if you saw what Shanahan said, he seemed to indicate this). JG doesn't know if he's more likely to play out the season, be offered in trades, or get released. He's pissed. Now maybe he plays better this way, as Shanahan indicated, but an organisation's wants for how a player will respond doesn't necessarily equal reality.
25 million to be the presumptive week 1 starter for a team that should make the playoffs. The downside risk isn't nothing as he has a ton at stake this year, but I'm not sure there's a better situation out there for him. He gets paid and unless the 9ers are absolutely set on starting the rookie this season, he has a golden opportunity to rebuild his value.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Burrow was pretty bad. 22nd in CMP%, 28th in TD%, 26th in ANY/A, 24th in RATE, 24th in QBR. Fine for a rookie, but well below average for an NFL starter, Herbert was good,
Tua 29th in CMP%, 23rd in TD%, 28th in ANY/A, 26th in RATE, 26th in QBR,
Kyler was a bit better, mixed mid to low 20s with teens, Jones was between the two,
Baker was similar to Kyler. The other 3 QBs that year... Darnold, Allen and Rosen were probably the 3 worst qualifying QBs in the league.
Trubisky was pretty bad, Watson only played the last 6 but was good.

I would say overall you're looking at a ceiling on rookie QBs of.... Jimmy G type seasons.

I think you could do the opposite, and say.... most of the highly drafted QBs who sat all or most of their first year were good... Palmer, Rivers, ROdgers, Mahomes, (maybe Watson), only guy I can think of who went top 15, sat a year and was bad was Jake Locker.
If you are making some kind of ballpark adjustment for the quality of surrounding talent, I don't think those Burrow or Tua performances are all that bad, certainly not in the realm of sucking. They're really not that far off JG in SF, with a substantial part of that gap plausibly due to JG playing for one of the best offensive minds in football and having some really good teammates. I don't think JG is the ceiling at all. Its pretty plausible that a number of these guys would have outperformed JG even their rookie years if put into such a QB friendly situation.

The sample of highly drafted QBs who sat their whole first year is tiny (I wouldn't include Rodgers unless you're expanding it to all first rounders, he also sat on the bench three years so not really the same) even if you're looking at a big range of time. I wouldn't draw many conclusions from that.
 
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SeoulSoxFan

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Umm, McShay says analysis shows that "over 200 throws, 200+ were to his primary receiver and only SEVEN were to his secondary receivers":

View: https://youtu.be/Kt3BXJR13m4


If true, Fields' said inability to process the defense wasn't remedied as much after transferring to OSU from Georgia:

"Fields, despite his great arm strength and running ability, didn’t have the same grasp on UGA’s pro-style offense as the much-more experienced Fromm.

Fields’ inexperience reading defenses and recognizing blitzes was obvious, and he often failed to get through his progressions, tucking and running when the first option was covered."

https://www.dawgnation.com/football/georgia-uga-justin-fields-jake-fromm-transfer

Sure, there are reports that say the talented QB isn't a 1-read QB and it's unfair to nag on his stint at Ohio as a young collegiate.

However, it still gives me enough of a pause. I haven't advocated trading up to get a QB (the ones one can possibly trade for). I know the talent is there but Fields could turn out to be a poor man's Dak Prescott.

The FA signings do give BB a chance to move up but should he? I think this team's true run begins next year, even with Cam or a rookie QB. Unless the front office thinks Fields' on-field decision-making skills can be coached up, I'm passing on the Ohio playcaller unless he falls to #15.
 

Cellar-Door

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Umm, McShay says analysis shows that "over 200 throws, 200+ were to his primary receiver and only SEVEN were to his secondary receivers":

View: https://youtu.be/Kt3BXJR13m4

However, it still gives me enough of a pause. I haven't advocated trading up to get a QB (the ones one can possibly trade for). I know the talent is there but Fields could turn out to be a poor man's Dak Prescott.

The FA signings do give BB a chance to move up but should he? I think this team's true run begins next year, even with Cam or a rookie QB. Unless the front office thinks Fields' on-field decision-making skills can be coached up, I'm passing on the Ohio playcaller unless he falls to #15.
Speed of progression is his main concern, but if a team's scouts told them he only went to the secondary taget 7 times they should fire their staff as it's just obviously untrue.
 

SMU_Sox

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That’s a load of bullshit re: Fields. I can’t find the source material but I know they’ve mentioned it on 2:1 draft (PFF Mike) that Mac Jones is the guy who has thrown the most to his first read in this class. Some think that’s a sign of being a good processor. I think his OC, Sark, calls plays where his first read is almost always open vs the kind of coverage the opponent plays.
What Sark did this year as an OC is just incredible. Seriously take 25 minutes of your time and watch this video breaking down Mac Jones vs UGA. Sark designed Bama’s offense slightly differently each week to take advantage of whatever the opponents scheme was. Now all OCs do it but Sark did it the best last year. The things he would ask Jones and his receivers to do to take advantage of teams defensive schemes vs what Stanford did for example was like night and day.
Edit: video is by former Pat JT O’Sullivan who does a QB series... the videos are all fantastic. He also evaluates pro QBs. If you want to learn more about QB play and some X’s and O’s I highly recommend the videos. He explains them all very well too.

I am already sick of the black QB treatment Fields is getting. It’s beyond infuriating.
 

jmanny24

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Umm, McShay says analysis shows that "over 200 throws, 200+ were to his primary receiver and only SEVEN were to his secondary receivers":

View: https://youtu.be/Kt3BXJR13m4


If true, Fields' said inability to process the defense wasn't remedied as much after transferring to OSU from Georgia:

"Fields, despite his great arm strength and running ability, didn’t have the same grasp on UGA’s pro-style offense as the much-more experienced Fromm.

Fields’ inexperience reading defenses and recognizing blitzes was obvious, and he often failed to get through his progressions, tucking and running when the first option was covered."

https://www.dawgnation.com/football/georgia-uga-justin-fields-jake-fromm-transfer

Sure, there are reports that say the talented QB isn't a 1-read QB and it's unfair to nag on his stint at Ohio as a young collegiate.

However, it still gives me enough of a pause. I haven't advocated trading up to get a QB (the ones one can possibly trade for). I know the talent is there but Fields could turn out to be a poor man's Dak Prescott.

The FA signings do give BB a chance to move up but should he? I think this team's true run begins next year, even with Cam or a rookie QB. Unless the front office thinks Fields' on-field decision-making skills can be coached up, I'm passing on the Ohio playcaller unless he falls to #15.
Then there was also this tweet: Mr. Ohio on Twitter: "Here are 8 throws against Clemson where Justin Fields threw to his second read. https://t.co/hZ25DIDwIx" / Twitter. Also maybe the 1st read was open?
 

DJnVa

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With Darnold going to Carolina, I *think* Carolina likely won't be drafting one at #8 and may be a target if the Pats want to move up.
 

ehaz

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Now you just need to get in front of Denver and hope ATL isn’t drafting a QB.
 

Cellar-Door

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Also, if Mac Jones goes #3, you don't have to trade up to 4. Probably can't stay at 15, but 7, 8, 10 and 11 come into play as places to get the last QB. If you're CAR and you now have 2 QBs... do you trade back to 15 to pick up replacement picks for what you traded for Darnold?
 

DJnVa

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I think Philly might be in the mix for a QB but they have so many holes to fill, I doubt they trade up.
Yeah--other teams *can* but the Pats don't seem to have as many holes.

If BB follows his FA strategy, they would be announcing trade any minute :)
 

tims4wins

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This is huge for the Pats. Puts 7-8 and 10-14 all in play and means that any team trying to trade up will by definition have a worse first round pick in 2021 than #15. I expect BB will be patient and strike only if he loves the player.
 

OurF'ingCity

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This is huge for the Pats. Puts 7-8 and 10-14 all in play and means that any team trying to trade up will by definition have a worse first round pick in 2021 than #15. I expect BB will be patient and strike only if he loves the player.
Exactly, I still wouldn’t be surprised if BB just keeps 15 or even trades down - but their options if they do want to trade up just increased.
 

DJnVa

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This is huge for the Pats. Puts 7-8 and 10-14 all in play and means that any team trying to trade up will by definition have a worse first round pick in 2021 than #15. I expect BB will be patient and strike only if he loves the player.
If he "loves" either Fields or Lance or Jones he knows at least 2 of them will be there at #4.
 

Saints Rest

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If you take this as accurate, and assume ATL is not a trade and also not a QB pick (Ryan), then it seems highly likely that one of the top 5 QBs will fall to the Pats at 15. Then the question becomes if that QB has appeal to BB and JMcD.
 

BigSoxFan

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This is huge for the Pats. Puts 7-8 and 10-14 all in play and means that any team trying to trade up will by definition have a worse first round pick in 2021 than #15. I expect BB will be patient and strike only if he loves the player.
Yeah, I can't help but think that things are breaking quite nicely in the QB chase. SF goes big to #3 and may be leaning towards Mac. Carolina just trades for Darnold and probably isn't going QB (although can't completely Rhule it out). Detroit is there at #7 and may be content with Goff for now. Denver is a competitor at #9. Dallas isn't at 10. NYG aren't at 11. Philly probably isn't at 12. LAC aren't at #14. Minny isn't at 14.

Basically, if the Pats like a QB enough to trade up, they will likely have both the opportunity and the assets to get it done.
 

DJnVa

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Yeah, I can't help but think that things are breaking quite nicely in the QB chase. SF goes big to #3 and may be leaning towards Mac. Carolina just trades for Darnold and probably isn't going QB (although can't completely Rhule it out).

They apparently are exercising his option for 2022--$18.9 million.
 

Cellar-Door

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If you take this as accurate, and assume ATL is not a trade and also not a QB pick (Ryan), then it seems highly likely that one of the top 5 QBs will fall to the Pats at 15. Then the question becomes if that QB has appeal to BB and JMcD.
I think the only QB who might get to 15 is Jones. I think teams later in the round would leapfrog up (CHI, WAS, PIT, NO all make sense), but also some of those teams start considering a QB if he falls to them, PHI has to think about it, same with NYG, and MIN. Cousins has no guaranteed money after this season, if Fields or Lance falls into their lap, they're going to have to think about drafting him, letting him learn for a year, then trading Cousins after the coming season. It's a great Mahomes type move, with the added benefit of not having to trade up to do it.
 
Here's a good article on the SB Nation Falcons site about what Atlanta might want in exchange for #4:

https://www.thefalcoholic.com/2021/4/5/22358994/what-trade-package-should-the-atlanta-falcons-look-for-with-the-4-pick-terry-fontenot-2021-nfl-draft

A potential Pats trade is listed there, along with the sorts of deals that could also be done with Denver and three other outside bets (Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Washington). Note: most of the comments after the articles on this site are usually at least somewhat readable.
 

BigSoxFan

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They apparently are exercising his option for 2022--$18.9 million.
Even better. 15/46 gets you right to 7/8 so it's well within reach.

1. Lawrence
2. Wilson
3. Jones
4. Pitts
5. Sewell
6. Chase

Feel like the play is to trade with Detroit/Carolina if they are willing to move back but they might not be depending on who's there. But I feel like there is a decent enough drop off after the top 6 (excluding Fields and Lance) that a team like Detroit may be good with trading down and landing another 2nd round pick.
 

DJnVa

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I think the only QB who might get to 15 is Jones. I think teams later in the round would leapfrog up (CHI, WAS, PIT, NO all make sense), but also some of those teams start considering a QB if he falls to them, PHI has to think about it, same with NYG, and MIN. Cousins has no guaranteed money after this season, if Fields or Lance falls into their lap, they're going to have to think about drafting him, letting him learn for a year, then trading Cousins after the coming season. It's a great Mahomes type move, with the added benefit of not having to trade up to do it.
Some of those teams might definitely think about it--but NE has fewer holes than those teams, mostly thanks to FA.
 

tims4wins

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Yeah, I can't help but think that things are breaking quite nicely in the QB chase. SF goes big to #3 and may be leaning towards Mac. Carolina just trades for Darnold and probably isn't going QB (although can't completely Rhule it out). Detroit is there at #7 and may be content with Goff for now. Denver is a competitor at #9. Dallas isn't at 10. NYG aren't at 11. Philly probably isn't at 12. LAC aren't at #14. Minny isn't at 14.

Basically, if the Pats like a QB enough to trade up, they will likely have both the opportunity and the assets to get it done.
Not only the opportunity and assets, but less competition. They no longer have to outcompete Carolina and Denver (unless they want to jump Denver to get their preferred guy).
 

nattysez

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What was Teddy Bridgewater's story last year? The Panthers kind of blew up with McCaffrey hurt almost all year. Is he worth a 7th rounder?
 

PC Drunken Friar

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Yeah, I can't help but think that things are breaking quite nicely in the QB chase. SF goes big to #3 and may be leaning towards Mac. Carolina just trades for Darnold and probably isn't going QB (although can't completely Rhule it out). Detroit is there at #7 and may be content with Goff for now. Denver is a competitor at #9. Dallas isn't at 10. NYG aren't at 11. Philly probably isn't at 12. LAC aren't at #14. Minny isn't at 14.

Basically, if the Pats like a QB enough to trade up, they will likely have both the opportunity and the assets to get it done.
I think Minnesota is in the market. Cousins is an UFA after this year. A smart team would look to get their QB this year and then get Cousins 30+ million off the books.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Not only the opportunity and assets, but less competition. They no longer have to outcompete Carolina and Denver (unless they want to jump Denver to get their preferred guy).
They may have to outcompete Denver if Denver tries to trade up to 4 to get whichever of Fields/Lance isn't taken in the top 3 (I'm assuming it's a given that Lawrence is 1 and Wilson is 2). Assuming BB also wants that player, obviously.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think Minnesota is in the market. Cousins is an UFA after this year. A smart team would look to get their QB this year and then get Cousins 30+ million off the books.
Yup, they could definitely be in the mix but the good thing is that the Pats aren't in a big competitive disadvantage against them unlike, say, Denver who can offer a materially better pick at #9 vs. #15. Minnesota doesn't have a 2nd but they do have 2 3rd's and 4 4th's so they have the assets to move, if they choose to do so. My hope is they are sold on Cousins and their ability to retain him and look to solidify a different area of the team.

Denver is the team I'm most concerned about.
 

Cellar-Door

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What was Teddy Bridgewater's story last year? The Panthers kind of blew up with McCaffrey hurt almost all year. Is he worth a 7th rounder?
He's not very good, he's probably slightly better than Cam overall? At more money. He's not really good at anything other than dumpoffs.
 
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Is there a world in which the Niners trade for Teddy B as a lower cost seat warmer while their rookie gets acclimated? I’m far from a capologist, but couldn’t they save a fair amount this way? The acquisition cost would be close to nil, though they may view the upside of having someone with system knowledge (Jimmy G) as more valuable than the money (or the removal of a potential distraction, for that matter).
 

DJnVa

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Is there a world in which the Niners trade for Teddy B as a lower cost seat warmer while their rookie gets acclimated? I’m far from a capologist, but couldn’t they save a fair amount this way? The acquisition cost would be close to nil, though they may view the upside of having someone with system knowledge (Jimmy G) as more valuable than the money (or the removal of a potential distraction, for that matter).
Bridgewater is cheaper, but he's still like $20M. I'd rather ride with the guy that knows the playbook.
 

Cellar-Door

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Is there a world in which the Niners trade for Teddy B as a lower cost seat warmer while their rookie gets acclimated? I’m far from a capologist, but couldn’t they save a fair amount this way? The acquisition cost would be close to nil, though they may view the upside of having someone with system knowledge (Jimmy G) as more valuable than the money (or the removal of a potential distraction, for that matter).
They'd save a small amount of money, but Teddy B is bad, and the whole point of keeping Jimmy G (if they do) is to have a guy with a higher ceiling and who has experience in their offense (which is pretty complex, even when they traded for Jimmy G they sat him for 6 weeks to learn the offense, and that was a terrible team playing CJ Beathard) and try to win playoff games.

If SF is going to try to win this year then transition it makes sense to keep Jimmy G (unless obviously you can get really good return for him), if they aren't doing that, they should either start the rookie or play Johnson or Rosen since they wouldn't really be trying to win.
 
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