Pats QB Options

The Mort Report

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We are through all the deadlines leading up to the draft right? Why not wait to make this trade til draft day? Wouldn't Carolina want other teams to spend more to trade up? Also if the plan is to not draft a QB wouldn't you want the rest of the league to still think you will? What if a team calls to move up to get Fields they can be like "Well we need a QB and really like him, so you are going to have to meet our over the top demands if you want us to give up the right to pick the guy." Timing just seems poorly planned for both teams, but especially Carolina
 

Mystic Merlin

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We are through all the deadlines leading up to the draft right? Why not wait to make this trade til draft day? Wouldn't Carolina want other teams to spend more to trade up? Also if the plan is to not draft a QB wouldn't you want the rest of the league to still think you will? What if a team calls to move up to get Fields they can be like "Well we need a QB and really like him, so you are going to have to meet our over the top demands if you want us to give up the right to pick the guy." Timing just seems poorly planned for both teams, but especially Carolina
Well, there’s a risk another team like Denver or Washington trades for Darnold while Carolina is jerking around. And with a QB I don’t think anyone would find a claim that they really like him credible if they also entertain trading out of their pick. Who trades back if they need a QB and one they really like falls into their lap? I’d call bullshit on that.
 

The Mort Report

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Well, there’s a risk another team like Denver or Washington trades for Darnold while Carolina is jerking around. And with a QB I don’t think anyone would find a claim that they really like him credible if they also entertain trading out of their pick. Who trades back if they need a QB and one they really like falls into their lap? I’d call bullshit on that.
Fair, but I could also see a small benefit for the Jets waiting to announce it too. I also obviously don't know the inner workings of how many deals are agreed with a handshake to be made later to not go back on them, but I feel like every draft we hear about deals that were agreed on only if a certain player was available when the pick came up
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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There is a good chance that at least one of the Fields/Lance/Jones trio will be available when Carolina picks and they didn't think it was worthwhile to wait and see. That is what seems most interesting to me.

I don't know who it will be but I think we may be underestimating the chances that one of these guys drops into the teens.
 

JM3

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I assume getting Darnold in the building ASAP would be important for the Panthers, especially since they have to decide to guarantee his 2022 $18.9m 5th-year option by like May 23rd or whatever.

Also if they plan to move on from TBridge if acquiring Darnold, the more time they have to do that the better. TBridge would cost an acquiring team about $18m for 2021 with a $21m option for 2022 with nothing dead. There's $10m of guaranteed salary in that 2021 deal, so it's possible if the Panthers were motivated to move him they could convert some or all of that to signing bonus to subsidize his contract. At that point they'd be eating $20m instead of $10m, but TBridge at $8m probably has some value & they'd still save $3m this year. Plus it frees them up to draft a Lance or whoever if they fall in their lap.
 

DJnVa

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There is a good chance that at least one of the Fields/Lance/Jones trio will be available when Carolina picks and they didn't think it was worthwhile to wait and see. That is what seems most interesting to me.

I don't know who it will be but I think we may be underestimating the chances that one of these guys drops into the teens.
Denver writer thinks Carolina made deal because one of the QBs wouldn't be there.

View: https://twitter.com/MikeKlis/status/1379165677597163521


But if they really liked one the could have easily tried traded up to get one.
 

BigSoxFan

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Denver writer thinks Carolina made deal because one of the QBs wouldn't be there.

View: https://twitter.com/MikeKlis/status/1379165677597163521


But if they really liked one the could have easily tried traded up to get one.
Feel like the following would have to happen for this to be true:

1. Fields/Lance go #3 to SF
2. ATL or DET goes with whoever isn’t #3
3. CAR doesn’t like Mac

Cincy isn’t going QB. Miami clearly isn’t. I find the odds that one of Fields or Lance is there at 8 to be reasonably good at this point.
 

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Being worried about more teams moving up was probably a big factor.

When the music stops there are going to be a few teams standing when all the draft chairs are filled.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Denver writer thinks Carolina made deal because one of the QBs wouldn't be there.

View: https://twitter.com/MikeKlis/status/1379165677597163521


But if they really liked one the could have easily tried traded up to get one.
That last point suggests to me that its the reverse and they just aren't sold on the QB they see as likely to be available. The cost to move up a couple slots from 8 just isn't going to be prohibitive if you like whichever guy or guys get past the ATL pick.
 

E5 Yaz

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Feels like Denver is the team needs to make a move next ... either trade up to, say, 6 with the Dolphins or sign a vet as insurance.
 

brendan f

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Feels like Denver is the team needs to make a move next ... either trade up to, say, 6 with the Dolphins or sign a vet as insurance.
I'm not convinced Denver wants to draft a qb. Despite Elway taking a figurehead position, he still holds enormous clout in the organization. Lock was his pick and I think he still wants the team to give him every chance to succeed. Maybe with SF and Carolina making their moves this changes Denver's plan, but I think them bringing in a veteran to "compete" with Lock is more likely.
 

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You have to wonder if Atlanta would be willing to trade with NE unless it's an absolute, earth-shattering haul.

Football-wise it makes sense (i.e., Ryan's extension). However, the fan base would be a bit upset if the perception is that they helped the 28-3 Pats get a franchise QB.

If BB does get Fields—who transferred to OSU after Georgia stuck with Jake Fromm—with the #4 pick and becomes a promising starter, degree of the backlash may extend to the Bulldogs fans as well.

Sure, an NFL front-office shouldn't dwell on the past but there may be a SB premium attached to any asking price to NE.
 

Super Nomario

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Denver writer thinks Carolina made deal because one of the QBs wouldn't be there.

View: https://twitter.com/MikeKlis/status/1379165677597163521


But if they really liked one the could have easily tried traded up to get one.
They may have tried, and found the cost prohibitive or the teams unwilling. Obviously Miami got a king's ransom at 3. Atlanta, a division rival, probably isn't too inclined to deal with them at 4. The Bengals are notoriously difficult to trade with. And beyond that, you lose a lot of control as to who might be available.
 

Harry Hooper

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You have to wonder if Atlanta would be willing to trade with NE unless it's an absolute, earth-shattering haul.

Football-wise it makes sense (i.e., Ryan's extension). However, the fan base would be a bit upset if the perception is that they helped the 28-3 Pats get a franchise QB.

If BB does get Fields—who transferred to OSU after Georgia stuck with Jake Fromm—with the #4 pick and becomes a promising starter, degree of the backlash may extend to the Bulldogs fans as well.

Sure, an NFL front-office shouldn't dwell on the past but there may be a SB premium attached to any asking price to NE.
Someone needs to launch a PR campaign in GA about how Atlanta fleeced the Pats in the Sanu deal, and now they have a chance to do it again.
 

JM3

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"They beat us in a football game a few years ago so we shouldn't do things that benefit our franchise" is a pretty wild take.
 

Cellar-Door

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"They beat us in a football game a few years ago so we shouldn't do things that benefit our franchise" is a pretty wild take.
It's the next step from the "Team in our division will make deals just to screw us, at the expense of their own best interest" path that comes up constantly.

People need to realize.... there are no emotions in deals, GMs are pros trying to keep their jobs not fans. Anybody dumb enough to make decisions based on anything other than the best possible outcome for their long term success won't last in the league long.
 

BigSoxFan

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RUmor roundup...

Schefter apparently said on the radio he'd be shocked if #3 isn't Mac Jones
View: https://twitter.com/amicsta/status/1379397709166215171


Chris Mortensen (on insider apparently which I don't have) says ATL is leaning toward staying at 4 and taking Lance
IF that happens, the Dolphins would be fist pumping, as they would be guaranteed either Chase or Pitts. Or Sewell. Would Detroit be willing to trade down if Chase/Pitts/Sewell are there? Maybe not. That would potentially leave Fields at #8 and would put Carolina in a great spot of getting a quality QB or picking up extra assets in a trade down.
 

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As I recall, Bridgewater had a very good visit with the Pats when he was coming out of college -- which was a surprise as he was a surefire first-rounder and the Pats had zero interest in drafting a QB then. One of the first examples I recall of "hey, we're not drafting him, but we still ought to get to know him."

That said, I wouldn't really advocate bringing Teddy Two Gloves in now. Getting Fields/Lance strikes me as an infinitely better plan, and if you're going the vet route Minshew is cheaper/better.
 

BaseballJones

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It's amazing to me that SF would give up all that to draft Mac Jones when in all likelihood they could have stayed where they were and maybe drafted him at their original spot.
 

Cellar-Door

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It's amazing to me that SF would give up all that to draft Mac Jones when in all likelihood they could have stayed where they were and maybe drafted him at their original spot.
I don't think that is true, I think CAR likes him supposedly, and DEN is lurking, plus any tradeups, but I do think they could have moved to 6 and had him be there without much doubt.
 

Super Nomario

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As I recall, Bridgewater had a very good visit with the Pats when he was coming out of college -- which was a surprise as he was a surefire first-rounder and the Pats had zero interest in drafting a QB then. One of the first examples I recall of "hey, we're not drafting him, but we still ought to get to know him."
Bridgewater come out the same year as Jimmy Garoppolo, so the Patriots did have interest in drafting a QB. They could have taken Bridgewater at 29 (he went 32) but took Dominique Easley instead.
 

koufax32

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So here’s my dream scenario:

NE trades with Carolina and picks a QB who ends up being a pro-bowler for the next 12-15 years, ensuring that NE stays near the top of the division as well.
That would mean that the Jets would be authors of their own demise by trading SD to CAR and making the 8th pick available for acquisition.
I would very much like to see this happen and don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility.
 

BigSoxFan

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It's a battle for Detroit's pick with Denver at #7 then. Get it done Theo.
Problem is that Detroit may not be motivated to deal if Chase, Sewell, or Pitts is sitting there at 7, which would be the case if Jones and Lance go top 4. Is the draft here yet?
 

ehaz

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Problem is that Detroit may not be motivated to deal if Chase, Sewell, or Pitts is sitting there at 7, which would be the case if Jones and Lance go top 4. Is the draft here yet?
True, but I think it makes more sense for Detroit to deal if they can get a bidding war started for Fields. Yes, Chase/Sewell/Pitts are great, but OT and WR are very deep this year. They could still get Darrisaw, Bateman, or maybe even Waddle/Smith if they fall. Detroit has so many holes to fill in their roster that the extra 2nd and 1st rounders could make a real difference. Since you're presumably giving Goff a try this year, the flexibility of having additional 1sts in 2022 make it easy to pivot if he struggles and they end up liking a guy like Howell or Rattler. You'd be able to take a QB with your own pick and still re-shape your roster elsewhere with the Rams and NE 1st rounders.
 

DJnVa

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RUmor roundup...

Schefter apparently said on the radio he'd be shocked if #3 isn't Mac Jones
View: https://twitter.com/amicsta/status/1379397709166215171


Chris Mortensen (on insider apparently which I don't have) says ATL is leaning toward staying at 4 and taking Lance
I think the Falcons are going to go with Pitts and give Ryan another weapon for his last few seasons. They'd have a pretty good offense adding Pitts to Hurst at TE, along with Ridley and Jones.
 

BigSoxFan

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True, but I think it makes more sense for Detroit to deal if they can get a bidding war started for Fields. Yes, Chase/Sewell/Pitts are great, but OT and WR are very deep this year. They could still get Darrisaw, Bateman, or maybe even Waddle/Smith if they fall. Detroit has so many holes to fill in their roster that the extra 2nd and 1st rounders could make a real difference. Since you're presumably giving Goff a try this year, the flexibility of having additional 1sts in 2022 make it easy to pivot if he struggles and they end up liking a guy like Howell or Rattler. You'd be able to take a QB with your own pick and still re-shape your roster elsewhere with the Rams and NE 1st rounders.
Definitely valid arguments for either approach. Seems possibly that Smith or Waddle could be there at #15, which would make trading 8 for 15/46/mid round pick a good move for Detroit. In any event, someone good will be there at 15 so the same logic persists.
 

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It's amazing to me that SF would give up all that to draft Mac Jones when in all likelihood they could have stayed where they were and maybe drafted him at their original spot.
It's less amazing if you are worried that someone else might grade him as highly as you.
Or perhaps, they just figured they needed to get ahead of Car and Den and every other trade partner turned them down.
 

sodenj5

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4 is going to be fascinating, it is like a game of chicken to see if teams want to risk waiting to 7-8 to make a trade and reduce the capital they need to give up
I’ve maintained that it will either be ATL picking a QB or trading out with someone that will (probably Denver now). The demand for a young QB is insanely high and smart teams that already have a QB are trading out of those top spots to maximize the value.
 

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I’ve maintained that it will either be ATL picking a QB or trading out with someone that will (probably Denver now). The demand for a young QB is insanely high and smart teams that already have a QB are trading out of those top spots to maximize the value.
There is no way ATL picks a QB given the Ryan cap hits.
 

sodenj5

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There is no way ATL picks a QB given the Ryan cap hits.
Seems unlikely now that they basically announced they’re trading out of the pick, but it wouldn’t be the worst decision they’ve ever made.
The way this offseason has gone, specifically FA, there can be no doubt NE is one of those teams, right? And they're being aggressive. Doesn't mean they'll get over the line, but they have to be in there.
I would imagine they’re interested. Assuming it goes Lawrence, Wilson, Jones?, do the Pats sell out to get Lance or Fields? Or do they sit tight and hope one of them falls to 15? I would guess if Denver traded up, the pressure for QB5 would come from a team below them jumping them.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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There is no way ATL picks a QB given the Ryan cap hits.
Yup. They have every reason to leak that they are planning on picking a QB but its just not a credible threat given the Ryan cap hits. That Schefter report also reads like something leaked from ATL in order to drum up more interest.

It only takes one team but my guess is that ATL will not get the return they want for that pick and either ends up getting far less than MIA got for #3 or just stays put and takes someone like Pitts.

Someone on the Ringer podcast made the point last week that the number of teams who would not trade their current QBs for three first rounders is pretty small (KC, BUF, SD, CIN, SEA maybe a couple more) . Its not going to be so easy to get a team to give up three first rounders for the opportunity to get the fourth QB in this draft.
 
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BusRaker

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Best case for Atlanta IMO is to pick up a couple of future #1s (2022/2023) with the 2020 #4 and hope for a high pick or to package them to move up in one of those drafts to get their quarterback of the future. Punit it like Jake Bailey

I mean, all of these teams thinking they are getting their QB of the future (what ... 5 minimum?) will have the give them 2-3 years to suck (using the Darnold constant) so 2023 could be a great year for Atlanta.

Then in 2024 4 or the 5 teams are back in the draft fighting for a QB
 

DJnVa

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I would imagine they’re interested. Assuming it goes Lawrence, Wilson, Jones?, do the Pats sell out to get Lance or Fields? Or do they sit tight and hope one of them falls to 15? I would guess if Denver traded up, the pressure for QB5 would come from a team below them jumping them.
They didn't sit and wait in FA--the recognized this was a different year for them, a different kind of opportunity and struck immediately. They have to do the same here. I'm sure they have a line they won't cross, but I would not be surprised in the least if the Pats move up that we are somewhat initially shocked by the offer.
 

BaseballJones

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Given how they've attacked this offseason, and their current roster situation, it makes ALL the sense in the world for the Pats to go for it at QB this year in the draft. It's a huge need moving forward, they have a full roster of highly competent NFL players, they've gotten younger, and they have tons of draft resources available to make the move.

Doesn't mean it will happen, but if there's any year to go for it, this is it.
 

tims4wins

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I see what you are saying about the sunk cost, but the lingering question I have would be why would the Falcons want to select a QB at 4, who will be the 4th QB taken in the draft, who may never be as good as Matt Ryan, AND absorb a $40M cap hit next year? He will be a quality player for at least 3-4 more seasons. I'd much rather ride that train than potentially be back drafting another QB in 3 years like the Jets.
 

DJnVa

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Given how they've attacked this offseason, and their current roster situation, it makes ALL the sense in the world for the Pats to go for it at QB this year in the draft. It's a huge need moving forward, they have a full roster of highly competent NFL players, they've gotten younger, and they have tons of draft resources available to make the move.

Doesn't mean it will happen, but if there's any year to go for it, this is it.
They can do all of this again next year--but it all lines up NOW. Which is what BB and Kraft said in regards to FA. It makes all the sense in the world, even to overpay a bit.
 

BaseballJones

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They can do all of this again next year--but it all lines up NOW. Which is what BB and Kraft said in regards to FA. It makes all the sense in the world, even to overpay a bit.
Yep, I agree 100%. It actually is a PERFECT time to do this.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Yep, I agree 100%. It actually is a PERFECT time to do this.
Agreed but only IF they really really like one of the QBs available after 3.

That almost goes without saying but it is so important. If you trade a lot of assets to move up and the guy is a bum, that essentially cripples the team for years, maybe even the rest of BB's tenure. It could be the single biggest roster management decision he will make over the next few years.

Opportunity is important but ultimately it has to come down to scouting. You don't want to swing really big on a QB you aren't truly sold on just because the timing is right.
 

tims4wins

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Agreed but only IF they really really like one of the QBs available after 3.

That almost goes without saying but it is so important. If you trade a lot of assets to move up and the guy is a bum, that essentially cripples the team for years, maybe even the rest of BB's tenure. It could be the single biggest roster management decision he will make over the next few years.

Opportunity is important but ultimately it has to come down to scouting. You don't want to swing really big on a QB you aren't truly sold on just because the timing is right.
This really depends on how far they trade up / what they use to trade up. If it is 15 + 46 + a 4th for the 7th or 8th pick, and the QB they pick busts, I don't think that will cripple the team for years, or even a single year.

If they trade up 15 + 96 + 2022 1st + 2023 1st for 4, and the QB busts, entirely different story.
 

BaseballJones

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Agreed but only IF they really really like one of the QBs available after 3.

That almost goes without saying but it is so important. If you trade a lot of assets to move up and the guy is a bum, that essentially cripples the team for years, maybe even the rest of BB's tenure. It could be the single biggest roster management decision he will make over the next few years.

Opportunity is important but ultimately it has to come down to scouting. You don't want to swing really big on a QB you aren't truly sold on just because the timing is right.
Well of course. If the guy that's available is the guy they are convinced is NOT the right guy, then of COURSE they shouldn't blow these assets to select that guy just to say they picked a QB. It's gotta be the guy they want. Or at least one of the guys they want. (maybe they have like 3 guys they would love to pick from)
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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This really depends on how far they trade up / what they use to trade up. If it is 15 + 46 + a 4th for the 7th or 8th pick, and the QB they pick busts, I don't think that will cripple the team for years, or even a single year.

If they trade up 15 + 96 + 2022 1st + 2023 1st for 4, and the QB busts, entirely different story.
Agreed. My default assumption is that it will cost at least a future 1st to get up to 7th or 8th but that may be too pessimistic.

The best comp is probably the Josh Allen deal in which Buffalo moved 12 to 7 for two second rounders (a 7th rounder went the other way but that hardly matters). My thinking is that we have to move up a little further and we're likely to have more competition to make that move than Buffalo had.

I really don't see BB making that kind of megamove up to 4th, just too much risk. But even a move up to 7 or 8 that involves first rounders this year and next is pretty risky. Despite all the FA additions, the roster is still very thin in terms of young talent on their rookie deals, you blow two first round picks on a QB bust and that is a huge setback to any attempt to replenish that talent.
 

Jungleland

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This really depends on how far they trade up / what they use to trade up. If it is 15 + 46 + a 4th for the 7th or 8th pick, and the QB they pick busts, I don't think that will cripple the team for years, or even a single year.

If they trade up 15 + 96 + 2022 1st + 2023 1st for 4, and the QB busts, entirely different story.
This has been my thinking as well. You can justify giving up pretty much anything until you get into the 2023 draft, but to me that pick is borderline untradeable. Not sure I'd do it even if 4 is on the clock and you are absolutely in love with one of the two left.