Pats QB Options

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Cellar-Door

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Yeah, I mean what leverage does Jimmy G have.... if SF is willing to pay him he sure isn't going to sit out the year and forfeit the checks, he'd never make it back. you get to 30 years old with one decent full season and you're done in terms of big money contracts likely. You may never get a shot to start again.
 

lexrageorge

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There's no reason for the 49'ers to cut JG now. Maybe that changes if they draft a QB and the newcomer wins the job outright at training camp. But until then, the 49'ers are best served by seeing if any team comes along with a trade offer. Otherwise, JG holds a clipboard for the season and finds a new home next year. It happens in the NFL.
 

Saints Rest

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But who cares about his happiness? It's the NFL. Nobody is happy outside of a handful of guys. It's not a players league. Any money they save by cutting him will be wasted at this point, it really doesn't matter for this season.
But the cap savings aren’t wasted. Worst case, they simply roll over to the 2022 cap. But it also allows them cap room to do any of the following:
  • Extend their own guys
  • Trade for someone and extend him (eg Gilmore)
  • Sign someone who gets cut between now and training camp
 

bsj

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I was traveling all day yesterday, but the SF news feels disappointing. I really was hoping we would move up for one of the big 5 or so, and now, it feels increasingly likely we will enter another season with Cam as starter (which in isolation i am fine with i guess) but with NO handoff plan in place, short of another lottery ticket in the mid rounds (Newman and Trask I fear will be overvalued and go early in response to the run on the early 5). Sigh.
 

scott bankheadcase

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There's no reason for the 49'ers to cut JG now. Maybe that changes if they draft a QB and the newcomer wins the job outright at training camp. But until then, the 49'ers are best served by seeing if any team comes along with a trade offer. Otherwise, JG holds a clipboard for the season and finds a new home next year. It happens in the NFL.
I don’t even think he holds a clipboard. He’s the week 1 starter.
 

Phil Plantier

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Gah, it's always bothered me how the NFL (and I think the NBA) report height. "6021" is not a number that means anything. It's a mix of base 12 and base 10. I get why they do it: it's somehow easier to parse than "74.1 inches," but it just offends me as a fan of numbers.

To add very little to the actual discussion: people know of my Kyle Trask love. I do think the Patriots are going mid-to-late-round QB. With this frenzy at the top, Pats are going to get an amazing talent at 15 (or trade down and still get Parsons. Not my first choice, but in BB I trust).
 

ZMart100

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Isn't it worse than that? I think that last digit on the height may be 1/8ths of an inch.
 

Phil Plantier

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Isn't it worse than that? I think that last digit on the height may be 1/8ths of an inch.
OMG I didn't even realize that. I want to yell at the sky.

Why were stock prices were in fractions until 2001? Stupid stuff like this.

God forbid they use centimeters.
 

Mystic Merlin

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What’s fascinating is they don’t, like, actually test to see if the QB has difficulty hanging onto the ball. For instance, have the prospect douse the ball in water before throwing, or see how well he performs if a free player is swiping at his throwing hand to dislodge the ball.

I doubt most players would do that at a pro day, but why the fuck bother with sizing the hand? It tells you nothing. Does anybody measure their feet while they’re at it?
 

kwa1430

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Seeing the trades yesterday, I really think the best option is not to force the issue and move up for the 5th best QB. At 15, there is a good chance someone like Slater from Northwestern might drop. OT is a big future need with Wynn 5th yr option most likely not picked up and Brown on one year detail. My favorite mid-round QB is Davis Mills. Very little tape due to losing most of the year due to COVID however shows some excellent skills throwing the ball. Another is Kellen Mond however he kind of scares me as an outstanding athlete but makes too many mistakes as a QB. Watching him in college was very frustrating. Great plays followed by bad decisions.
 

axx

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That's crazy that it's gotten to the point where all 5 guys will be long gone by 15.
 

Saints Rest

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Seeing the trades yesterday, I really think the best option is not to force the issue and move up for the 5th best QB. At 15, there is a good chance someone like Slater from Northwestern might drop. OT is a big future need with Wynn 5th yr option most likely not picked up and Brown on one year detail. My favorite mid-round QB is Davis Mills. Very little tape due to losing most of the year due to COVID however shows some excellent skills throwing the ball. Another is Kellen Mond however he kind of scares me as an outstanding athlete but makes too many mistakes as a QB. Watching him in college was very frustrating. Great plays followed by bad decisions.
I think it is not beyond the realm of possibility that the pick ends up being a CB. JCJ might sign elsewhere or Bill might still trade Gilmore. In either case, a starting level CB will be needed.
 

axx

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Since getting a QB is out of this draft, my dream pick is Jaycee Horn. I even like him more than Surtain.
You should still expect them to take a QB in the draft. It just won't be in the first round. Take a flier on somebody to replace Stidham and see if you get lucky.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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I’m all aboard the Davis Mills train in round 2 if they can’t move up for Fields or Lance.

Ran a 4.58 40. Has the height at 6’3”. Hand size is good. Apparently had a great pro day throwing in the rain. Knee injury history is a concern but that was a few years ago.
 

bsj

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David Mills seems like a project in the realm of a Stidham level player. I am not super confident we are drafting our 2022 starting QB if we go after him.
 

triniSox

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David Mills seems like a project in the realm of a Stidham level player. I am not super confident we are drafting our 2022 starting QB if we go after him.
That's my line of thinking too. To me, Davis Mills falls into the "may never be a starter" realm
 

brendan f

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There's no reason for the 49'ers to cut JG now. Maybe that changes if they draft a QB and the newcomer wins the job outright at training camp. But until then, the 49'ers are best served by seeing if any team comes along with a trade offer. Otherwise, JG holds a clipboard for the season and finds a new home next year. It happens in the NFL.
I think this is about right except for the clipboard part. Although one thing I hadn't considered was a trade and renegotiating his salary with a new team. That actually seems like the most likely outcome.

Also, it appears much of the league feels as I do that SF is merely posturing:
View: https://twitter.com/jeffphowe/status/1375495809005932544?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1375495809005932544%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.twitter.com%2F%3Fquery%3Dhttps3A2F2Ftwitter.com2Fjeffphowe2Fstatus2F1375495809005932544widget%3DTweet

https://twitter.com/jeffphowe?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1375495809005932544%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.twitter.com%2F%3Fquery%3Dhttps3A2F2Ftwitter.com2Fjeffphowe2Fstatus2F1375495809005932544widget%3DTweet
 

PedroKsBambino

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While believing JG is done inSF and this is posturing, it is somewhat more credible that they'd keep him at least for some/all of 2021 if they pick Lance. He will need more development time, imo, and thus it is easier to sustain the idea that JG is keeping the seat warm for a while than if they pick someone else.
 

simplyeric

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Is there a Pats draft prediction thread?
While believing JG is done inSF and this is posturing, it is somewhat more credible that they'd keep him at least for some/all of 2021 if they pick Lance. He will need more development time, imo, and thus it is easier to sustain the idea that JG is keeping the seat warm for a while than if they pick someone else.
Is it possible they could try to thread a needle, where JG starts the season to let the rookie see how things work, and then try to trade JG when some other team’s QB inevitably goes down and JG looks better than their current backup? That might maximize the utility of keeping him amd also his trade value at the same time.
Obviously everyone has backup QB’s but some of them aren’t real. Like Stidham.
 

DGreenwood

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Is there a Pats draft prediction thread?

Is it possible they could try to thread a needle, where JG starts the season to let the rookie see how things work, and then try to trade JG when some other team’s QB inevitably goes down and JG looks better than their current backup? That might maximize the utility of keeping him amd also his trade value at the same time.
Obviously everyone has backup QB’s but some of them aren’t real. Like Stidham.
Wouldn't it be very difficult for most teams to clear the cap space necessary to add JG midseason?
 

Cellar-Door

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One thing to note... All the SF writers think they're keeping him, all the NE writers say no chance. National are split (Lombardi I guess you might consider NE, he says he thinks SF drafts Lance and keeps Jimmy)

Howe is spinning at least as much as Kawakami
 

E5 Yaz

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Another part of this is that Nate Mullins, who would normally be the early-season starter for the 49ers if they draft a QB and get rid of JG, is still a free agent. If he were to sign elsewhere, SF would be left (at that point) with the draft pick, Rosen and (gasp) Josh Johnson.

Now, maybe they have a wink-wink understanding with Mullins, or maybe there's someone else out there ... but trading JG without knowing if the draftee can play right away seems less than optimal.
 

heavyde050

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Another part of this is that Nate Mullins, who would normally be the early-season starter for the 49ers if they draft a QB and get rid of JG, is still a free agent. If he were to sign elsewhere, SF would be left (at that point) with the draft pick, Rosen and (gasp) Josh Johnson.

Now, maybe they have a wink-wink understanding with Mullins, or maybe there's someone else out there ... but trading JG without knowing if the draftee can play right away seems less than optimal.
Mullens is also recovering from elbow surgery from an injury in late 2020.

Edit - I believe he is expected to be ready for training camp though.
 

RedOctober3829

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Another part of this is that Nate Mullins, who would normally be the early-season starter for the 49ers if they draft a QB and get rid of JG, is still a free agent. If he were to sign elsewhere, SF would be left (at that point) with the draft pick, Rosen and (gasp) Josh Johnson.

Now, maybe they have a wink-wink understanding with Mullins, or maybe there's someone else out there ... but trading JG without knowing if the draftee can play right away seems less than optimal.
To me, the 3rd overall pick is not going to be sitting the whole year. No matter what SF says now, they didn't just trade 2 1's to have the guy waste a year of his rookie deal on the bench. So if you're going to have someone else starting for less than a full season, it doesn't make sense for that guy to be Jimmy G. You could accomplish the same thing much cheaper by dumping Garoppolo and bringing somebody in such as Gardner Minshew. Minshew could start 7 games and hand the reigns over to whoever they pick.
 

E5 Yaz

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So if you're going to have someone else starting for less than a full season, it doesn't make sense for that guy to be Jimmy G. You could accomplish the same thing much cheaper by dumping Garoppolo and bringing somebody in such as Gardner Minshew. Minshew could start 7 games and hand the reigns over to whoever they pick.
This presumes, of course, that JG gets through those 7 games unscathed. Now, you can day that about anyone, but it's getting to the stage where you figure it's not if, but when, with him
 

EvilEmpire

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If SF really wants to compete this year, I don't think they want to depend on Lance's development to do it.

Jimmy G could get injured and Covid is still an issue, so I think Lance will get plenty of snaps that will help in that development. I don't think the year will be wasted if he doesn't become the full time starter.
 

Captaincoop

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To me, the 3rd overall pick is not going to be sitting the whole year. No matter what SF says now, they didn't just trade 2 1's to have the guy waste a year of his rookie deal on the bench. So if you're going to have someone else starting for less than a full season, it doesn't make sense for that guy to be Jimmy G. You could accomplish the same thing much cheaper by dumping Garoppolo and bringing somebody in such as Gardner Minshew. Minshew could start 7 games and hand the reigns over to whoever they pick.
Agreed 100%
 

DourDoerr

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I've stated earlier that it’d be surprising if JG is traded for many of the same reasons Kawakami cites. Another issue is, again, SF is in a window where they can afford this talented roster. If they trade JG and start, say, Lance and he gets injured, then you’ve seriously wounded your shot at a SB and blown another precious year. SF has already witnessed the crippling effects of a good team helmed by by a backup and it hasn’t been pretty.

It’s a franchise - different regime though - that had success with good starter in Alex Smith backed by a talented unproven heir apparent in Kapernick. I’d imagine these are lessons learned and the smart move is to carry some real insurance with two good QB’s while you can. And they can this season.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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To me, the 3rd overall pick is not going to be sitting the whole year. No matter what SF says now, they didn't just trade 2 1's to have the guy waste a year of his rookie deal on the bench. So if you're going to have someone else starting for less than a full season, it doesn't make sense for that guy to be Jimmy G. You could accomplish the same thing much cheaper by dumping Garoppolo and bringing somebody in such as Gardner Minshew. Minshew could start 7 games and hand the reigns over to whoever they pick.
I agree completely. Has that ever actually happened, where a QB was drafted that high and then didn't play all year? I can think of examples with QBs drafted later, like Mahomes, but even those are often (IMO at least) wrongly interpreted as some kind of wise plan when it was probably just a mistake. I mean does anybody really think he wouldn't have been better than Alex Smith down the stretch and in the playoffs his rookie year? Maybe they wouldn't have lost to a terrible Titans team and wasted one of Mahomes' cost-controlled years if they just played the talented guy they paid a lot to draft.

If the 49ers draft Jones or Fields, there is definitely no point in having a guy like JG as the other QB. Its more understandable with Lance but, even so, you'd hope that he would be ready to play by the last half or third of the season. There is a real opportunity cost with cap rollover (not to mention financial cost) in paying JG $25M to potentially play like 6-12 games.
 
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SeoulSoxFan

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You’re probably right. I’m bummed because (unlike you) I like Mac Jones and now it prob costs next year’s first to get him.
I'm definitely on the Jones train.

This offense is not just suited for a dual-thread QB. It seems perfect for a rookie playcaller as well. You have the OL to keep him upright and a number of outlet options, not to mention the solid run game. I'm most high on his ability to diagnose the defense & go through progression quickly, traits Scar points to as a must in there NE offense in a recent interview.

A good portion of mocks have him available at 10th and beyond. I'd be ecstatic to draft him at 15th but would be happy to move up higher than the 10th spot, even if it costs a bundle.

Regarding Sims' rankings, the man has proven to be outstanding in predicting future NFL success. If Jones doesn't fall, I'm hopping right onto the Mond tram.

Also, I'm terrified Jimmy G only plays half the season & lose at least 2 winnable games with 3+ ints.
 

E5 Yaz

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Has that ever actually happened, where a QB was drafted that high and then didn't play all year?
Who's saying he wouldn't play all year? People are saying that it's no given that whoever the 49ers take will be ready to start immediately.

I can think of examples with QBs drafted later, like Mahomes, but even those are often (IMO at least) wrongly interpreted as some kind of wise plan when it was probably just a mistake. I mean does anybody really think he wouldn't have been better than Alex Smith down the stretch and in the playoffs his rookie year?
You're basing this off what we've seen since. There is no way of knowing how he would have played down the stretch.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Who's saying he wouldn't play all year? People are saying that it's no given that whoever the 49ers take will be ready to start immediately.
And what RedOctober and myself are saying is that paying a guy $25M to start only part of the season is a bad use of resources.

You're basing this off what we've seen since. There is no way of knowing how he would have played down the stretch.
Obviously we can't know for sure because it didn't happen. But what we've seen since is pretty damn pertinent in imagining that counter-factual world in which Mahomes played down the stretch his rookie year. He had one of the greatest seasons in NFL history the next year so I'm pretty comfortable betting that he would have been better than Alex Smith.
 

E5 Yaz

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Obviously we can't know for sure because it didn't happen. But what we've seen since is pretty damn pertinent in imagining that counter-factual world in which Mahomes played down the stretch his rookie year. He had one of the greatest seasons in NFL history the next year so I'm pretty comfortable betting that he would have been better than Alex Smith.
Then we agree ... you're guessing
 

Captaincoop

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And what RedOctober and myself are saying is that paying a guy $25M to start only part of the season is a bad use of resources.



Obviously we can't know for sure because it didn't happen. But what we've seen since is pretty damn pertinent in imagining that counter-factual world in which Mahomes played down the stretch his rookie year. He had one of the greatest seasons in NFL history the next year so I'm pretty comfortable betting that he would have been better than Alex Smith.
Paying Jimmy G $25m to be your quarterback in 2021 is not optimal. Paying him the same amount to play Scott Secules to your new Drew Bledsoe is completely irrational. I don't believe that SF will do it.
 

JM3

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I agree completely. Has that ever actually happened, where a QB was drafted that high and then didn't play all year? I can think of examples with QBs drafted later, like Mahomes, but even those are often (IMO at least) wrongly interpreted as some kind of wise plan when it was probably just a mistake. I mean does anybody really think he wouldn't have been better than Alex Smith down the stretch and in the playoffs his rookie year? Maybe they wouldn't have lost to a terrible Titans team and wasted one of Mahomes' cost-controlled years if they just played the talented guy they paid a lot to draft.

If the 49ers draft Jones or Fields, there is definitely no point in having a guy like JG as the other QB. Its more understandable with Lance but, even so, you'd hope that he would be ready to play by the last half or third of the season. There is a real opportunity cost with cap rollover (not to mention financial cost) in paying JG $25M to potentially play like 6-12 games.
1st one that comes to mind is the 2003 Bengals. Drafted Carson Palmer 1st overall & had him sit behind Jon Kitna all year.

Bengals went 8-8.

Then Palmer got the job in 2004. & the Bengals went...8-8.
 

OurF'ingCity

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This offense is not just suited for a dual-thread QB. It seems perfect for a rookie playcaller as well. You have the OL to keep him upright and a number of outlet options, not to mention the solid run game. I'm most high on his ability to diagnose the defense & go through progression quickly, traits Scar points to as a must in there NE offense in a recent interview.
But isn't Cam (in his ideal state) the epitome of a dual-threat QB? Seems to me this offense is much more suited to a dual-threat QB than it had been in years, for obvious reasons.

In any event, if a team is choosing a QB in the first round they are doing so with the intention/hope that he becomes "the guy" for the next 5/10/15 years, so I don't think how the team is currently constituted would make a material difference in the Pats' QB evaluations. If the new QB is good you can change the system for him over the course of a couple of years, just as the Ravens did after moving from Flacco to Jackson.
 

lambeau

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Fascinating: SF convinces Kawakami they have zero interest in letting Jimmy go, and Jimmy's fine with it; Patriots put out they have zero interest in getting him, and they're fine with Cam--nobody believes either story. Steve Wyche talked with John Lynch in Utah and Lynch told him he's taking calls on Jimmy. I think it's Jimmy's call--does he just wait to get cut? Lynch wants something back,but Jimmy probably has to agree to restructure.
 

Cellar-Door

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To me, the 3rd overall pick is not going to be sitting the whole year. No matter what SF says now, they didn't just trade 2 1's to have the guy waste a year of his rookie deal on the bench. So if you're going to have someone else starting for less than a full season, it doesn't make sense for that guy to be Jimmy G. You could accomplish the same thing much cheaper by dumping Garoppolo and bringing somebody in such as Gardner Minshew. Minshew could start 7 games and hand the reigns over to whoever they pick.
Depends how good your team is. Rookie QBs are almost always bad. If Jimmy G stays healthy and you're a SB contender you don't bench him for Lance or Fields because you traded up for him. You take the SB run, and then trade Jimmy and his higher value (staying healthy, 1 less year to restructure etc.) and get more for him than now.
SF is a good team. With a healthy Jimmy they are in the playoff hunt, with a rookie they aren't.

The example you might look to is.... Phil Rivers. Drafted #4, sat the first year on a division winning team (amusingly not just didn't start, when Brees missed a game Doug Flutie started). RIvers actually sat his 2nd year too.
 

SoxinSeattle

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Isn't JG staying in SF the best thing for the Pats in '22? Two drafts to find a QB, see how Cam does this year and have the option to get JG for just money.
 

djbayko

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Has that ever actually happened, where a QB was drafted that high and then didn't play all year?
As E5 already mentioned, my impression was that people here were saying that the 49ers might not start their #3 pick right away, not that he won't play all year long Having said that, I was curious how often this happened. Here are all of the QBs drafted within the top 5 picks over the past 20 seasons.

Year Draft Pos. QB Week 1st Start Games Started Notes
2020 1 Joe Burrow 1 10
2020 5 Tua Tagovailoa 7 9
2019 1 Kyler Murray 1 16
2018 1 Baker Mayfield 4 13
2018 3 Sam Darnold 1 13
2017 2 Mitchell Trubisky 5 12
2016 1 Jared Goff 10 7
2016 2 Carson Wentz 1 16
2015 1 Jameis Winston 1 16
2015 2 Marcus Mariota 1 12
2014 3 Blake Bortles 4 13
2012 1 Andrew Luck 1 16
2012 2 Robert Griffin III 1 15
2011 1 Cam Newton 1 16
2010 1 Sam Bradford 1 16
2009 1 Matthew Stafford 1 10
2009 5 Mark Sanchez 1 15
2008 3 Matt Ryan 1 16
2007 1 JaMarcus Russell 13 1 Held out until end of training camp
2006 3 Vince Young 4 13
2005 1 Alex Smith 5 7
2004 1 Eli Manning 10 7
2004 4 Philip Rivers N/A 0 Held out until end of training camp, Drew Brees started
2003 1 Carson Palmer N/A 0 Jon Kitna started all season
2002 1 David Carr 1 16
2002 3 Joey Harrington 3 12
2001 1 Michael Vick 8 2
 
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