Pats QB Options

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Mugsy's Jock

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ehaz said:
I bet they keep Darnold and draft Wilson at #2 to make Wilson “earn it” in camp because they’re the Jets.
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It actually might not be a completely ridiculous strategy -- you bring in Wilson, confirm he's picking up everything adequately, and then trade Darnold before the season starts for 2022 pick to either a team still bereft of a competent starter. The Texans will surely qualify, as will the Panthers or Pats if they don't wind up with one of the top 4 2021 QB draftees. The Niners could decide to dump Jimmy G. And most promisingly, some QB will likely get hurt in training camp. Roethlisberger not being able to answer the opening bell, for instance, is hardly unthinkable.

The Jets would have hurt their bargaining position a little, perhaps, by obviously having a Plan B they prefer... but at the same time some team's gonna be mighty desperate for Darnold if they didn't get their dream QB in the 2021 draft.
 
tims4wins

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Mugsy's Jock said:
It actually might not be a completely ridiculous strategy -- you bring in Wilson, confirm he's picking up everything adequately, and then trade Darnold before the season starts for 2022 pick to either a team still bereft of a competent starter. The Texans will surely qualify, as will the Panthers or Pats if they don't wind up with one of the top 4 2021 QB draftees. The Niners could decide to dump Jimmy G. And most promisingly, some QB will likely get hurt in training camp. Roethlisberger not being able to answer the opening bell, for instance, is hardly unthinkable.

The Jets would have hurt their bargaining position a little, perhaps, by obviously having a Plan B they prefer... but at the same time some team's gonna be mighty desperate for Darnold if they didn't get their dream QB in the 2021 draft.
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The problem here is that the team trading for Darnold would not get to integrate him with mini camps, training camp, etc. He couldn't just step in and immediately start for the Panthers or Pats or Niners. And he's in the last year of his contract (was his 5th year option picked up?), so the value to the team trading for him seems very, very limited. I'd still probably offer a 2022 5th or 6th round pick at that point just to take a flyer, but I wouldn't really want to give up much more than that. I'd much rather spend a 4th rounder on a flyer QB like Mills or Mond or whatever, since at least you get control for a while and you can groom him to your system immediately.
 
Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Is there a particularly good reason to assume that the Jets prefer Wilson over the other two QBs? It seems like nearly every mock draft has him going second but that is largely just based on herding and the (perhaps flawed) assumption by draftniks that he is QB2 in the class.
 
BigSoxFan

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Is there a particularly good reason to assume that the Jets prefer Wilson over the other two QBs? It seems like nearly every mock draft has him going second but that is largely just based on herding and the (perhaps flawed) assumption by draftniks that he is QB2 in the class.
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That's what I was wondering. I think it's herd thinking because it wouldn't be crazy for the Jets to prefer Fields or Lance to him, for instance.
 
Cellar-Door

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Is there a particularly good reason to assume that the Jets prefer Wilson over the other two QBs? It seems like nearly every mock draft has him going second but that is largely just based on herding and the (perhaps flawed) assumption by draftniks that he is QB2 in the class.
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I don't think he's assumed QB2, plenty of places have him 3rd or even 4th. It seems like everyone with sources is saying the same thing, which is that they hear NYJ particularly like him and that around the league the thought is that he's the guy the Jets want
 
JM3

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Apparently Fields runs a 4.4 40 & Wilson runs a 4.7. I thought they would be closer in speed than that.

I think the Wilson to Jets @2 stuff comes from rumors of who they like, but I could be misrememembering.
 
ehaz

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Is there a particularly good reason to assume that the Jets prefer Wilson over the other two QBs? It seems like nearly every mock draft has him going second but that is largely just based on herding and the (perhaps flawed) assumption by draftniks that he is QB2 in the class.
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BYU operates a very similar offense to what the 49ers run (and what the Jets will run). So part of it is a scheme fit.

The arm talent, highlight reel throws on the run, and ability to throw from various arm angles reminds a lot of media folks of Mahomes. I don't know if it's the consensus among NFL front offices, but it appears to be the consensus within draft media that he's the QB2. I think PFF (again, many folks rightfully take issue with their grades) charted his 2020 season as the highest graded QB season they've seen. Simms even has Zach Wilson as QB1 slightly ahead of Lawrence. I think that's crazy and you might have your own opinions re - Simms, but to be fair, he was in the minority among NFL media and had Mahomes as the #1 QB in his class. He also had Lamar Jackson as his QB 1 and Josh Allen as QB 2 in 2018 when everyone else was on the Baker or Darnold trains. He was the highest on Justin Herbert in media last year.

FWIW - Simms QB rankings:
- Wilson
- Lawrence
- Mac Jones
- Kellen Mond (!)
- Fields
- Lance
 
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DennyDoyle'sBoil

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With no basis at all other than gut, I'm really starting to think that the first day of the draft is going to come and go and we're going to our usual thing by the end of the draft, trade down 15, take a 4th round kicker and another running back, grab a Navy guy in the late rounds, and when Bill says "Cam's our QB," the board will explode.

There is no money left. At this point, unless they make a series of cap moves they just have nothing they can do expect draft a QB. There really isn't a plan B. I don't think Bill like negotiating when he has no plan B and everyone else knows it. I'm really feeling like the possibility that 1 is under center to start the year is a much higher probability in Bill's mind than in any of ours.
 
tims4wins

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DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
With no basis at all other than gut, I'm really starting to think that the first day of the draft is going to come and go and we're going to our usual thing, trade down 15, take a 4th round kicker and another running back, grab a Navy guy in the late rounds, and when Bill says "Cam's our QB," the board will explode.

There is no money left. At this point, unless they make a series of cap moves they just have nothing they can do expect draft a QB. There really isn't a plan B. I don't think Bill like negotiating when he has no plan B and everyone else knows it. I'm really feeling like the possibility that 1 is under center to start the year is a much higher probability in Bill's mind than in any of ours.
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Cam is likely the week 1 starter regardless of whether they get another QB. But I'm starting to truly believe they trade up for a QB. If they don't, they're going to end up with a couple more very quality players and that's not a bad thing either. I would almost say they can do no wrong in this draft, but of course we all have too much experience with that. But I'm fired up almost regardless of what happens. I mean what is the worst case? They trade down a bit and still draft a quality OT?
 
Cellar-Door

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ehaz said:
BYU operates a very similar offense to what the 49ers run (and what the Jets will run). So part of it is a scheme fit.

The arm talent, highlight reel throws on the run, and ability to throw from various arm angles reminds a lot of media folks of Mahomes. I don't know if it's the consensus among NFL front offices, but it appears to be the consensus within draft media that he's the QB2. I think PFF (again, many folks rightfully take issue with their grades) charted his 2020 season as the highest graded QB season they've seen. Simms even has Zach Wilson as QB1 slightly ahead of Lawrence. I think that's crazy and you might have your own opinions re - Simms, but to be fair, he was in the minority among NFL media and had Mahomes as the #1 QB in his class. He also had Lamar Jackson as his QB 1 and Josh Allen as QB 2 in 2018 when everyone else was on the Baker or Darnold trains. He was the highest on Justin Herbert in media last year.
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More consensus than I thought
PFF has him 2
Ringer has him 3
Jeremiah has him 2
Sporting News has him 2
Brugler has him 2
Simms has him 1
Pauline has him 2
Scouts Inc has him 2
Easterling has him 3
 
Cellar-Door

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This trade up makes me not want the Patriots to trade up.
1. The price tag was massive
2. This likely means Fields is going 3 (or 2 with Wilson 3)

I'm fine waiting until the mid-rounds for Newman or Mond over paying a ton for Lance, or taking Jones.
 
djbayko

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DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
With no basis at all other than gut, I'm really starting to think that the first day of the draft is going to come and go and we're going to our usual thing by the end of the draft, trade down 15, take a 4th round kicker and another running back, grab a Navy guy in the late rounds, and when Bill says "Cam's our QB," the board will explode.

There is no money left. At this point, unless they make a series of cap moves they just have nothing they can do expect draft a QB. There really isn't a plan B. I don't think Bill like negotiating when he has no plan B and everyone else knows it. I'm really feeling like the possibility that 1 is under center to start the year is a much higher probability in Bill's mind than in any of ours.
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Cam’s our starter no matter what we do in the draft.
 
Cellar-Door

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Ed Hillel said:
I mean they are until they aren’t.
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Sure, but it doesn't make that much sense to move him unless they get a good return, and it doesn't make much sense for anyone to trade a lot for him given he's not very good and constantly injured.
 
R

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Ed Hillel said:
I mean they are until they aren’t.
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Yeah, they are trading him in a heartbeat if they find a deal that makes sense.

He is clearly not the QB of the future there and no reason to hold onto him unless they can't find a way to get rid of him.
 
Rusty13

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SF planning to keep Jimmy G.
Not surprising, they probably don't want to turn it over to a rookie day 1.
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Seems like posturing/spinning to me. They can get good value for Jimmy now, which they will want and need after giving up a ton to move up.
 
Ed Hillel

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Cellar-Door said:
Sure, but it doesn't make that much sense to move him unless they get a good return, and it doesn't make much sense for anyone to trade a lot for him given he's not very good and constantly injured.
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You’re probably right. I’m bummed because (unlike you) I like Mac Jones and now it prob costs next year’s first to get him.
 
Cellar-Door

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Rusty13 said:
Seems like posturing/spinning to me. They can get good value for Jimmy now, which they will want and need after giving up a ton to move up.
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Can they get good value?
I think they'd get maybe a 5th for him? You're better off just having him on the roster for a year and hoping someone signs him to a deal that gets you a comp pick after the year.
 
Ed Hillel

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Cellar-Door said:
You're better off just having him on the roster for a year and hoping someone signs him to a deal that gets you a comp pick after the year.
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Not when you factor in the 24 mil in base salary they save. Lotta money to use next offseason, his guarantees are very low.

24 mil in cap space >>>>>>> Delta between 2021 5th rounder and 2022 3rd round comp.

Jimmy is at some risk of being cut, so maybe Yee would be willing to renegotiate a bit here with Belichick or another GM.
 
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PedroKsBambino

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Yeah, I think pretty unlikely they actually hold on to Jimmy G. Sure, there's a way to explain it---held out for value, happy to have him start year and give 3rd pick time to develop etc. I just think that's not super likely---he's a very expensive declining asset (once you draft a QB at 3) and most of the time, for good reasons, that means a trade is coming.

Consider as well that they surely know the market for Jimmy G, and may well have assumed that return for him into the offer they made to Miami for 3
 
Ed Hillel

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PedroKsBambino said:
Yeah, I think pretty unlikely they actually hold on to Jimmy G. Sure, there's a way to explain it---held out for value, happy to have him start year and give 3rd pick time to develop etc. I just think that's not super likely---he's a very expensive declining asset (once you draft a QB at 3) and most of the time, for good reasons, that means a trade is coming.

Consider as well that they surely know the market for Jimmy G, and may well have assumed that return for him into the offer they made to Miami for 3
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I think the bigger question is will anyone take him at all at his salary? It will be interesting to see, but definitely the Pats have a real shot if it’s what BB wants (not my preferred path, but better than Cam at the right price).
 
PedroKsBambino

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Yes, a fair question. I don't know the cap rules as well as the NBA ones---can the acquiring team restructure the deal? It's pretty easy to get him new money and a deal that a lot more teams can swallow cap-wise than the $24 mil a year sitting there right now
 
Ed Hillel

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PedroKsBambino said:
Yes, a fair question. I don't know the cap rules as well as the NBA ones---can the acquiring team restructure the deal? It's pretty easy to get him new money and a deal that a lot more teams can swallow cap-wise than the $24 mil a year sitting there right now
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As long as both parties (player and acquiring team) consent, absolutely. Pats did it with Moss in 2007, for example. SF is stuck owing any guaranteed money, but there isn’t much left on the deal, it was frontloaded.

With this move, I just can’t see SF letting Jimmy take up that 24 mil base salary this season. I’d say it’s like 90% he’s gone.
 
Average Game James

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The one thing that might make Jimmy at least somewhat reluctant to come to NE on a restructured deal (presumably a 1 year prove it type contract) is he certainly wouldn't be guaranteed a starting job in NE. He should beat out Cam, but that's not a guarantee and if he sits behind Cam in '21 his value next year is toast.
 
bluefenderstrat

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Average Game James said:
The one thing that might make Jimmy at least somewhat reluctant to come to NE on a restructured deal (presumably a 1 year prove it type contract) is he certainly wouldn't be guaranteed a starting job in NE. He should beat out Cam, but that's not a guarantee and if he sits behind Cam in '21 his value next year is toast.
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There is no chance they bring him here to sit behind Cam. Cam's either the backup or released as a favor to try and compete for a starting job somewhere.
 
Cellar-Door

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Average Game James said:
The one thing that might make Jimmy at least somewhat reluctant to come to NE on a restructured deal (presumably a 1 year prove it type contract) is he certainly wouldn't be guaranteed a starting job in NE. He should beat out Cam, but that's not a guarantee and if he sits behind Cam in '21 his value next year is toast.
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Honestly if Jimmy wants to make the most of his value, his best move is to restructure his deal and stay in SF. That's a great offense where if he can stay healthy he'd likely put up better numbers than anywhere else he might go.
 
ehaz

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Let's say we know for sure the 49ers like Trey Lance at #3. Lawrence and Wilson are going #1 and #2, as expected.

Would you do the same deal for #4 to get Fields?

#15 + #96 + 2022 1st + 2023 1st.

Yeah it's a lot, but I think I would.
 
Cellar-Door

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ehaz said:
Let's say we know for sure the 49ers like Trey Lance at #3. Lawrence and Wilson are going #1 and #2, as expected.

Would you do the same deal for #4 to get Fields?

#15 + #96 + 2022 1st + 2023 1st.

Yeah it's a lot, but I think I would.
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Probably not, but Fields is the guy I'd consider it for. I think I see if he makes it to #7 and offer 15, 96 2022 1st and a 2022 3rd as my max.
 
JM3

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Hmm Broncos have $42m cap space left? I guess there is 1 possible Jimmy G destination where they wouldn't have to restructure him.
 
Rico Guapo

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ehaz said:
Let's say we know for sure the 49ers like Trey Lance at #3. Lawrence and Wilson are going #1 and #2, as expected.

Would you do the same deal for #4 to get Fields?

#15 + #96 + 2022 1st + 2023 1st.

Yeah it's a lot, but I think I would.
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They've done well to patch holes in FA but I still think they need long term help at WR/DL/CB, too much to give up given roster needs elsewhere.
 
Marceline

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ehaz said:
Let's say we know for sure the 49ers like Trey Lance at #3. Lawrence and Wilson are going #1 and #2, as expected.

Would you do the same deal for #4 to get Fields?

#15 + #96 + 2022 1st + 2023 1st.

Yeah it's a lot, but I think I would.
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If Fields is there and the Falcons would do it, I think the Pats should make this move.
 
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