Patriots select OG Cole Strange

tims4wins

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In fairness to Volin (and I can't believe I just wrote that), his argument was more that it's a lateral move on offense and they need much more help at other positions, and they could have gotten a guard later. It was less about them reaching.
 

ragnarok725

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My first reaction to the McVay video was that it was supremely disrespectful to Strange - basically a kid/new adult.

He knew that he was on camera. All he needed to say was ‘he’s a great player and someone who we thought could slip to us at 104’. It conveys exactly the same sentiment but in a way that doesn’t make him look like an asshole or takes some of the air out of the elation that Strange must be feeling.

Either way, I’m sure that Strange will stay a bit longer in the weight room this summer thinking about that comment.
It's interesting that everyone is viewing the McVay video as a negative.

When I first watched it I thought he was being complimentary. I thought he was saying that they really liked Strange and thought maybe he'd fly below the radar and they could get him at their first pick. But that, of course, Belichick was on top of him and took him way early.

I totally see how it can be viewed as calling the pick a reach. But he seemed more chagrined than cynically contemptuous of BB or the pick.
 

mauf

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I bet teams must be able to place value on that where the drop from 32 to 33 is far greater than any other single drop due solely to that 5th year option.
The 5th-year option appears to be less valuable for O-Line than for other positions.

I’ll gladly accept correction from anyone who understands the rules better than me, but my takeaway from these links is that the franchise tag for O-Line is only $4M or so higher than the 5th year option for a guy who doesn’t make a Pro Bowl in his first three seasons. For a guy who does make a Pro Bowl, the difference between the option price and the tag is immaterial.

https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections/

https://www.patspulpit.com/2022/3/8/22966849/nfl-announces-2022-salary-cap-franchise-tag-numbers-patriots


Considering you have to decide on the option a full year before you have to decide on the tag (after year 3 vs. after year 4), it would appear the option has minimal value. Obviously a different story for other positions where top-5 guys (what drives franchise tag numbers) receive enormous contacts relative to league-average guys.
 
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8slim

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The problem with wondering about the "consensus" on Strange (or anyone) is that is doesn't matter what the average position is for a guy on the other 31 boards. It takes only other team to like him enough to swoop in and get him, either with their own pick or a trade. Trust your draft board and take the best guy. I love trading down when it makes sense, but unless you are moving down only one or two picks or have a ton of intel, it will always come with the risk that your guy isn't there the next time you pick.
This is true. But it also means that the Pats felt Strange was a must-have. So that's the expectation they're setting for him -- that he was so valued that there was no other option but to take him at #29. That losing him to another team was totally unacceptable. Lots of pressure for him to be starting from day one, and succeed.
 

Shelterdog

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I think Cole Strange was going early 2nd OR to CIN or MIN. Here is why:

~90% of NFL teams primarily run some sort of zone scheme. There are 2 zone IOLs who you feel comfortable starting or picking in round 2, Cole Strange and Dylan Parham. Strange is the grittier, tougher, and more Patriots type of guy of those two. IOL is not strong at the top of the class this year. There are a lot of late round 3 and day 3 guys there but there were like 3-5 round 1-2 IOL zone scheme guys TOTAL which is very low. IOL is a position of need for a ton of teams. It's in short supply this year at the top and middle-top.
That makes a lot of sense. I think the issue is really a simple one--most football fans (myself included) can't really tell too much about what's happening at OG so they assume players are interchangeable--and then the most knowledgeable teams and coaches treat the players as anything but.

My favorite factoid about how little people pay attention to OL play is this: something massivley impacted the Pats' oline during Super Bowl XLII: what was it?
 

SMU_Sox

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It could also be that they not only had Strange with a high grade but they liked him a lot more than any other interior lineman left in the draft pool, whereas they have a lot of LBs, EDGEs, and DBs they like with a very good chance of being able to grab a couple of them in the 2/3/4 rounds.

At the end of the day, next year is unlikely to be a big jump year for the Patriots anyway given their cap/roster situation. Probably the single most important thing is keeping Mac upright and putting him into a position to keep developing. So if they want to prioritize OL, I'm fine with it.
Edge and ILB are deep this year while IOL was not. I agree with you.

I read a lot of the 49ers beat writers (Niners fan) and there's a lot of talk that the Niners were looking at Strange for their second rd pick (they didn't have a first, Lance). So, the idea that he would have just fallen to the Patriots in rd 2 or 3 is probably not true.

I won't be surprised to see SF use some of their comp picks to move up in rd 2 tonight and take Cam Jurgens (the other guy they are reported to have liked) now that there's been a run on IOL.
Funny you should say that because I had the 49ers in a 7 round 32 team mock draft and guess who I picked for them in the 2nd round:

51246


Edit: I also took Jurgens for the Eagles because he reminds me a lot of Kelce. He would be a great fit on the 49ers.
 

Toe Nash

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I think all positions on the line are important, but when you have a pocket passer with a quick release like Mac I don't worry as much about edge rushers getting to him since he can step up and he's not going to sit back there forever, but I do worry about pressure up the middle preventing him from stepping up (and getting in his face affecting a pass). This is what we watched with Brady for years; unless someone had a monster game like Von Miller where the blocking barely bothered them, he was getting the pass out of his hands before an edge rusher could get there. Not to mention the run game of course. So I don't think the Pats can just run Onwenu and ??? out there.

I'm with others; I'm sure if BB thought he could get this guy in the mid-second and there was a trade for such a pick available, he would have done it, but if there's a pretty flat draft outside of the top 15 or so then you never know if he'll be there at that point. And with an interior OL their track record is pretty good.

BB has found good OL later but he's also found good defensive players late in the draft too.
 

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In fairness to Volin (and I can't believe I just wrote that), his argument was more that it's a lateral move on offense and they need much more help at other positions, and they could have gotten a guard later. It was less about them reaching.
But in his own words in his tweet he's completely ignoring the player's quality even if the guy turns out to be a massive hit.

Which is nonsense.
 

DJnVa

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In fairness to Volin (and I can't believe I just wrote that), his argument was more that it's a lateral move on offense and they need much more help at other positions, and they could have gotten a guard later. It was less about them reaching.
But he doesn't actually *know* they could have gotten a guard that can likely start from Day 1 later. He's basing on his draft board, or someone's draft board. We just had a report that the Niners wanted him in the 2nd round. Bill was able to get the guy he apparently wanted at 21, pick up a 3rd and a 4th, and get that extra year of control on him.

Or, you know, Volin...
 

Shelterdog

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This is true. But it also means that the Pats felt Strange was a must-have. So that's the expectation they're setting for him -- that he was so valued that there was no other option but to take him at #29. That losing him to another team was totally unacceptable. Lots of pressure for him to be starting from day one, and succeed.
Ton of pressure on any first round pick regardless of what verbiage they use about him.

Chances of a spring practice where they put him out on punt return duty and tell him weekend practices are cancelled if he catches the punt? They did it with Vollmer, Wilfork, Solder I think....
 

Jinhocho

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I think Ron Borges clinched the lifetime award for stupid draft takes in 2001.

View attachment 51245
I was at the draft party at the stadium. Tons of the fans were pissed. When BB came out to talk to the season ticket holders about it - about 20% of the room booed the name Seymour (people wanted Terrell or Robinson). I still remember BB looking up like WTF then he looked back down and continued his remarks lol.
 

DJnVa

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But in his own words in his tweet he's completely ignoring the player's quality even if the guy turns out to be a massive hit.

Which is nonsense.
Essentially Volin's take (with some hyperbole) is that if the Pats had drafted Brady in the first round and he was still the GOAT it was a bad pick. And that's ludicrous. And the line that makes it ludicrous isn't that someone drafted "early" has to turn into the GOAT.
 

tims4wins

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But in his own words in his tweet he's completely ignoring the player's quality even if the guy turns out to be a massive hit.

Which is nonsense.
But he doesn't actually *know* they could have gotten a guard that can likely start from Day 1 later. He's basing on his draft board, or someone's draft board. We just had a report that the Niners wanted him in the 2nd round. Bill was able to get the guy he apparently wanted at 21, pick up a 3rd and a 4th, and get that extra year of control on him.

Or, you know, Volin...
Agree with both of you, just wanted to make sure that everyone who didn't read the article understood what Volin's argument was, and didn't assume he was just saying they could have picked this guy at 54
 

Eddie Jurak

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In fairness to Volin (and I can't believe I just wrote that), his argument was more that it's a lateral move on offense and they need much more help at other positions, and they could have gotten a guard later. It was less about them reaching.
In fairness to Volin, it must be difficult to hold down a gig as an NFL beat reporter with as severe a craniorectal inversion as he has.
 

tims4wins

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Essentially Volin's take (with some hyperbole) is that if the Pats had drafted Brady in the first round and he was still the GOAT it was a bad pick. And that's ludicrous. And the line that makes it ludicrous isn't that someone drafted "early" has to turn into the GOAT.
But that wasn't his take. His take was that they needed more help elsewhere.
 

moondog80

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This is true. But it also means that the Pats felt Strange was a must-have. So that's the expectation they're setting for him -- that he was so valued that there was no other option but to take him at #29. That losing him to another team was totally unacceptable. Lots of pressure for him to be starting from day one, and succeed.
Couldn't you say the same thing about every draft pick ever?
 

cornwalls@6

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But in his own words in his tweet he's completely ignoring the player's quality even if the guy turns out to be a massive hit.

Which is nonsense.
Complete nonsense. And also completely over-valuing first round picks in the 20's. They are not the precious asset he and a few others think they are, and making(what may very well be a minor) reach there for a player they really like is not wasting anything.
 

BaseballJones

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It's also his take that OG is the least important position on the line which is a completely ridiculous assertion. Losing a key part of your Center/Guard combo can absolutely KILL an offense.
Just recall what Justin Tuck did to the Pats’ interior line in two Super Bowls. Or don’t.
 

Jinhocho

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Also the Pats picked 29th in the first round after the trade. Is taking a guy many folks thought would go in the second round at the end of the first that big a deal?
 

8slim

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Ton of pressure on any first round pick regardless of what verbiage they use about him.

Chances of a spring practice where they put him out on punt return duty and tell him weekend practices are cancelled if he catches the punt? They did it with Vollmer, Wilfork, Solder I think....
Sure, but it's a different kind of pressure. Wynn, for example, came in with a long pedigree and a feeling that he was worth the pick. Strange is coming in with a lot of critical eyes on him demanding that he prove himself. I'm sure Bill think he can handle that.
 

8slim

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Also the Pats picked 29th in the first round after the trade. Is taking a guy many folks thought would go in the second round at the end of the first that big a deal?
I'm not sure the issue is as simple as 1st vs. 2nd. Seems like it's more than he went 29th rather than, say, 59th.
 

Ferm Sheller

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From Volin's article:

"It’s almost as if Belichick is playing Patriots Draft Bingo. Next up this weekend: Two players each from Alabama, Michigan, and Rutgers; an offensive lineman from Europe; a left-footed punter in the fifth round; and a Division II quarterback who is switching to safety."

LOL. Like they haven't had success drafting guys from Alabama/Michigan/Rutgers, European OLmen, left-footed punters in the mid-rounds, and Division II QBs switching to another position.
 

lexrageorge

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But that wasn't his take. His take was that they needed more help elsewhere.
The counter to Volin's argument is that the Pats have 10 more picks in this draft to get the help they need elsewhere, plus UDFA season. If the Pats draft/scouting team feels Strange has a significantly higher potential to a be a Pro Bowl player than any of the LB's or DB's on the board, then drafting purely for need would be a mistake.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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That's why I like SOSH. Because people here are better critical thinkers and honestly the discussion here on Strange >>>>>> Twitter right now.
First thing I thought of when the pick was made was 29. They were picking 29th. People were gonna get all worked up about 'FIRST ROUND PICKS!' but he's being picked at 29; had he gone at 33 no one would have said anything. It's an asinine way of analyzing things.

Strange could bust, no question. But the actual quality of the player seems less important to a lot of folks than "winning" the draft.
 

tims4wins

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The counter to Volin's argument is that the Pats have 10 more picks in this draft to get the help they need elsewhere, plus UDFA season. If the Pats draft/scouting team feels Strange has a significantly higher potential to a be a Pro Bowl player than any of the LB's or DB's on the board, then drafting purely for need would be a mistake.
Completely agree.

To be clear, I DO NOT AGREE WITH VOLIN. I just see everyone ranting against his article but they're not even arguing against his point.
 

Captaincoop

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I mean, just think about the leap of logic Ben made there. It's astoundingly idiotic. "Even if this guy turns into a Hall of Fame player it's a bad pick."

Volin might be the dumbest writer I've even seen. Legitimately stupid.
It's hard to imagine how you put that in writing, look at it, and think "yes, this is something I want to put out there to publicly represent my intellectual capacity."

Or....you're doing it as transparently disingenuous clickbait.
 

ragnarok725

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Oh Ben gets better:

View: https://twitter.com/BenVolin/status/1520055265860759553?s=20&t=9FQnjI_x4ilFcLkvPO7VLw


This is legitimately the dumbest sports take I've ever read.
These takes are stupid on so many levels. The most obvious is that the pick is great if the player is great, and questioning that is just dumb.

But it's all built on the assumption that can't be proven - that the player would be there later. Belichick himself disagreed - thought he "wouldn't have lasted much longer". I'm not sure who's legitimately in a position to question that judgment.

View: https://youtu.be/4xverhp4suY?t=228
 

SMU_Sox

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I am not sure I like the whole Shaq for Strange comparison. I think Shaq is a RG type for them. Same for Onwenu. Strange meanwhile is more of their prototypical LG type.
 

cornwalls@6

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Completely agree.

To be clear, I DO NOT AGREE WITH VOLIN. I just see everyone ranting against his article but they're not even arguing against his point.
Probably because the stupidity of his argument is so self-evident. They have other picks, they acquired even more last night. They rated Strange higher than the other needs available, but can still go shopping for some of those over the next couple of days. They took who they thought was the best player available at their slot. Certainly fair to question their evaluation, but he's making a foolish point about their process.
 

tims4wins

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They didn't forfeit their other picks.
@cornwalls@6 answers it below. I completely agree with you.
Probably because the stupidity of his argument is so self-evident. They have other picks, they acquired even more last night. They rated Strange higher than the other needs available, but can still go shopping for some of those over the next couple of days. They took who they thought was the best player available at their slot. Certainly fair to question their evaluation, but he's making a foolish point about their process.
 

jacklamabe65

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I am not sure I like the whole Shaq for Strange comparison. I think Shaq is a RG type for them. Same for Onwenu. Strange meanwhile is more of their prototypical LG type.
SMU - Given last night's pick, I will be anxious to read your take on the picks going forward. You are my official go-to person, and I am extremely grateful for your sagacious posts. While I have been following the team since 1963, I learn something every time I read one of your posts. Thank you.
 

mauf

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And we JUST went through this with Duggar. No one ever learns anything.
If memory serves, Dugger went about where he was expected to go. For whatever reason, he was on the radar in a way that Strange wasn’t. Sure, a lot of Pats fans didn’t like taking a safety from a D-II school at 37, but the pick didn’t elicit the reactions from knowledgeable people that the Strange pick has.
 

SMU_Sox

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I know he didn't play there in college but do you think there is any chance Strange would be an option at LT in the future (like 2023 or 2024, not this year) with a bit more good weight (and obviously a lot of work on technique and learning the position). He seems like he might have a chance just from a frame/athleticism perspective.
Answered it in the other thread. My bad!

Short answer is maybe but I lean towards he is a much cleaner projection at LG. I didn't think he looked dominant at LT vs Mercer for example but it's tough to go from LG to LT at the end of the season and dominate.
 

SMU_Sox

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SMU - Given last night's pick, I will be anxious to read your take on the picks going forward. You are my official go-to person, and I am extremely grateful for your sagacious posts. While I have been following the team since 1963, I learn something every time I read one of your posts. Thank you.
Thank you for the kind words. I love the draft and as long as I keep ticking I'll continue to grow (but hopefully not horizontally) and, again, hopefully get better at evaluating guys.
 

8slim

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I'm agnostic about the pick. Who knows how it'll turn out.

But this seems like an incomplete way of looking at things, since it doesn't take into account who *wasn't* picked by the Pats at #21/#29, and who they draft with those additional picks.

Obviously, it seems that it's a far better situation to have more picks and a lower cost/longer retained G than Mason. But don't the Pats have to address some of their other glaring needs today and tomorrow with those picks before we can declare it all a net positive? Not saying it won't be, but seems premature to me at the moment.
 

dcdrew10

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Strange could bust, no question. But the actual quality of the player seems less important to a lot of folks than "winning" the draft.
I generally don't pay attention to draft grades, so feel free to pick this apart or add teams, but I feel like it's always Dallas and Baltimore that get lauded for the best draft classes the Monday after the draft. It's been almost 10 years since either of them have played in/won a Super Bowl. The whole "winning the draft" thing is so asinine and is part of the a larger obsession with "winning" arguments on the internet. How has that become the most valued commodity in the world?
 

Mystic Merlin

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I'm agnostic about the pick. Who knows how it'll turn out.

But this seems like an incomplete way of looking at things, since it doesn't take into account who *wasn't* picked by the Pats at #21/#29, and who they draft with those additional picks.

Obviously, it seems that it's a far better situation to have more picks and a lower cost/longer retained G than Mason. But don't the Pats have to address some of their other glaring needs today and tomorrow with those picks before we can declare it all a net positive? Not saying it won't be, but seems premature to me at the moment.
Yes. But given the assets they have in the next few rounds, they’re gonna be able to go get guys that fit what they do at positions of short or long term need. If they see an edge player they really like, they can jump up from 54 without much trouble, etc.
 

lexrageorge

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If memory serves, Dugger went about where he was expected to go. For whatever reason, he was on the radar in a way that Strange wasn’t. Sure, a lot of Pats fans didn’t like taking a safety from a D-II school at 37, but the pick didn’t elicit the reactions from knowledgeable people that the Strange pick has.
Those knowledgeable people seem to be frequently wrong, often due to their outright expectation biases, that it’s hard to accept their evaluation as being correct. Several examples of the experts misjudging past Pats drafts have been shared in this thread. I recall those same experts calling McCourty’s ceiling as a special teams contributor and praising the selection of Harry.
 

ifmanis5

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SMU - Given last night's pick, I will be anxious to read your take on the picks going forward. You are my official go-to person, and I am extremely grateful for your sagacious posts. While I have been following the team since 1963, I learn something every time I read one of your posts. Thank you.
+1, thanks SMU. Great resource here.
 

tims4wins

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I'm agnostic about the pick. Who knows how it'll turn out.

But this seems like an incomplete way of looking at things, since it doesn't take into account who *wasn't* picked by the Pats at #21/#29, and who they draft with those additional picks.

Obviously, it seems that it's a far better situation to have more picks and a lower cost/longer retained G than Mason. But don't the Pats have to address some of their other glaring needs today and tomorrow with those picks before we can declare it all a net positive? Not saying it won't be, but seems premature to me at the moment.
Yeah I've said it once or twice but we'll definitely have to keep a close eye on the 6 defensive players picked between 21-28 and see how they pan out