I read in
FanGraphs that this year Crawford is getting paid the second most dead money ($21.9m) of any player this year. The only person he's behind is Josh Hamilton, who is getting paid $26.4m by the Angels to play for the Rangers.
That Crawford contract was really, really, REALLY terrible.
Seems like it's time for a Punto Trade retrospective, since I have lunch free.
Mid 2012 Punto Trade:
Sox Send - Gonzalez, Crawford, Beckett, Punto, Cash
Sox Get - (salary relief of 252.5 mil), Loney, De Jesus, Webster, Sands, De La Rosa.
2013 Sox Sign: Gomes, Victorino, Koji, S.Drew, Napoli, Dempster, and purchased Carp.
2013 gave us a WS victory which is hard to value via:
Victorino 6.5 WAR
Napoli 4
Koji 3.6
S.Drew 3
Carp 1.2
Gomes 1.1
Dempster 0
Total 19.4 WAR (I didn't do the $ breakdown - the point is that the freed cash allowed the FA signings.)
Compare that to the 2013 GCBP production for LA:
Gonzalez 3.9 WAR $21m
Punto 2.1 $2(?)
Crawford 1.6 $20
Beckett neg .8 $16
Total 8 WAR for $59m
In 2013 both Boston and LA got to the post season, with LA losing the NLCS to the Cardinals. It's highly unlikely that Boston would have gotten to the post season without the FA upgrades, pretty much all of whom outperformed the players they replaced (13.5 WAR v 8 WAR) while allowing more value to be added in terms of other signings. As time passes other factors beyond just the traded players will play larger roles.
However, 2014 gave us a last place finish, and the following:
Napoli 3.3 WAR
Koji 1.7
Victorino .6
De La Rosa .4
Carp 0
Gomes 0
(S.Drew came back as an ineffectual FA)
Total 6 WAR
2014 gave LA a post season berth (NLDS loss):
Gonzalez 3.8 WAR $21m
Crawford 2.3 $20
Beckett 1.9 $16
Total 8 WAR for $57m
So in 2014 contracts aside, Gonzalez, Crawford, and Beckett, would have made an upgrade over Napoli, Victorino, and De La Rosa. The Sox had bigger problems though, and I don't believe magically undoing the trade would have put them in the post-season mix in 2014. That said, the money locked into the 2013 FA class was not paying nearly the same dividends in 2014.
2015 gave us another last place finish with the following:
Victorino .6 (traded mid-season for Rutledge)
Napoli .6 (traded mid-season for cash)
Miley 2.5 WAR (obtained with Webster and De La Rosa)
(Koji came back as a FA)
Total 3.7 WAR - but that's scraping the bottom of the barrel.
2015 gave LA a post season berth (NLDS loss):
Gonzalez 4 WAR $22m
Crawford neg. .01 WAR $21
Total: 3.9 WAR for $43m
So in 2015, magically undoing the trade (even though Gonzales was good) would again not have likely helped the season outcome for the Sox. Once Victorino and Napoli were traded, the last of the 2013 FA restocking class were gone. The Sox still had (and have), in theory, the flexibility of the money they saved at the tail end of the 2012 season, but have already been reallocating it in different ways, smartly and stupidly, as the FA market allows. However, that "freed" money should be viewed as only the money LA remains on the hook for at any given time: aprox. $43m for 2015, $44m for 2016, $44m 2017, and $22m for 2018.
2016 saw us back in the post season (ALDS loss), with no direct trade players.
2016 gave LA yet another post season berth (NLCS loss):
Gonzalez 2.1 WAR $22 (another $22 for 2017 and 2018)
Crawford (released) $22 (another $22 remaining for 2017)
Total: 2.1 WAR for $44m
It seems that at this point $44m is still a significant chuck of change for the Sox. If they're near their unofficial cap, an extra $44m (and Gonzalez locked into 2.1 WAR at 1b/DH) would likely have prevented some signings (almost certainly Price).
Looking back, in terms of direct contributions from traded players, not much happened for the Sox.
- Sands and De Jesus were (with Pimentel and Melancon) traded for Hanrahan/Holt. Since the Sox had Melancon in 2012, I left Holt out of the mix. But if you want to view the trade as Melancon for Hanrahan and the rest for Holt, you could add 5.2 WAR for Holt from 2013-16.
- Webster and De La Rosa were traded for Miley, who gave us 2.5 WAR in 2015, and then was traded with Aro for Elias and Carson Smith.
Intangibles and LA's overall record aside, it's bad if you look at the trade from LA's overall perspective. As of 2017:
Gonzalez - 4+ seasons, 664 games, 10.3 WAR, $107 million. (2 years left at $45 million)
Becket - 2+ seasons, 35 starts, 2 WAR, $47 million.
Crawford - 4 seasons, 320 games, 2.8 WAR, $62 million.
Punto - 1+ season, 138 games, 2.5 WAR, $3 million.
LA has been very competitive, but you have to wonder if they wouldn't have done better using the money on other acquisitions, which might have put them over the top.
Post trade:
Sox - 1 WS, 1 ALDS berth, 2 losing seasons.
LA - 2 NLCS berths, 2 NLDS berths.
I don't see any plausible scenario where the Sox come out ahead by standing pat in 2012. And it's mostly because of Crawford.
