Right - if it's 3 years or less, he probably winds up with the Rangers or someone else. If the Sox go 5 years, they probably get him. My bet is that they are trying to get him for 4 years maybe with one or more option years.
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That’s what I was thinking - that they will try the multiple opt outs like the Bellinger deal, but just a longer contract.
Thought for sure he was going to be signed today by 5-EST. Adjusting it to end of the week. The Rangers really don’t have the money. This is just Boras and Breslow waiting for the other to blink and for once Boras doesn’t have hand
Three possibilities at this point (in descending order of probability)
1. It's a game of chicken with only two players, the Red Sox and Montgomery.
2. Montgomery wants to stay in Texas and is using Boston to get the best offer he can.
3. Someone else will swoop in and get him.
I honestly think Boston is the most likely destination at this point, but this zoom call was nearly two weeks ago.
1. It's a game of chicken with only two players, the Red Sox and Montgomery.
2. Montgomery wants to stay in Texas and is using Boston to get the best offer he can.
3. Someone else will swoop in and get him.
I honestly think Boston is the most likely destination at this point, but this zoom call was nearly two weeks ago.
I do think Montgomery wants to stay in Texas if the money can be worked out, but I doubt Boston is the only other team in on him. I suspect there might be a couple of teams for Monty to choose from if his asking price drops close to something that Boston is comfortable with.
I think he’ll end up back with Texas.
I think he’ll end up back with Texas.
It's pretty obvious that the Sox are doing their diligence by staying in touch with him (JM, Boras) in case the number of years decreases, especially after they saw the Bellinger deal in comparison to what his projected contract would be. It's also pretty obvious that John Henry has absolutely no interest in signing a non-ace type pitcher to a long term deal (5-8 yrs) who is on the wrong side of 30. Both Price and Sale had much higher ceilings and ace-like stuff when they were signed and extended. And Henry feels he got the short end of the deal on both of them. I'm guessing that he's drawing a line in the sand with Breslow at nothing longer than 4 yrs with opt outs.
More to the point, wouldn't this be true of Breslow? It's also true of every other GM in MLB, apparently.
Except every team is in a different position baseball-wise and finances-wise. The Red Sox are one of half a dozen teams tops who were projected as logical matches for Montgomery.
Yeah but we have NO idea what he has been offered by other teams, right? What if the cash strapped Rangers offered him 5/yr 95 mil with incentives for IP and Cy Young votes 2 months ago and Boras laughed at them? My point is that the Red Sox are not handing out long term contracts right now, especially for pitchers over 30 who aren't a potential generational talent. And frankly, I don't want Jordan Montgomery for 6-7 years. I'd be thrilled with him at 4 yrs, with an opt out after year 2. And I'd be fine with him exercising it. My hope is that 2 yrs from now, our pitching pipeline is going to look very different for the better, and the free agent options at that for top pitching will be much more appealing than Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery.
Maybe I'm guilty of using logic, but if you're recently on a skid of last place finishes, and a lot of your rotation is on 1-year contracts, where is your next team coming from? I get it, your owner is a cost accountant or a hedge fund guy, but you can get two good, not great starters now. Several competitors have taken the year off, they will be bigger spenders if you think you'll load up in 2025. Repeat, you are a last place team looking to improve, and you're a bottom feeder, but i repeat myself.
There's 12+ months and another FA class before the 2025 Sox team takes the field. Which gives them the end of this off-season, all year to trade and develop, and the next FA class to work through. There's time. Sure, they can fuck it up. But it does not follow that the only fix for the next team is to sign Montgomery (at any cost) today.
I'm going to respond to you, but I don't mean this directed only AT you (hope that makes sense)...
I really think the idea of "saving powder" or whatever term one wants to use for future free agent classes is the new opiate of the masses for Red Sox fans. Maybe the Red Sox will again some day sign a big name FA starting pitcher (and I hope they do) but the idea of saying don't spend this year because look what next year is going to offer almost never works out.
I bet we can go back on this board (I don't want to) and find plenty of people arguing that the Red Sox shouldn't sign X pitcher in the 2022-23 offseason because 2023-24 was going to be this awesome class and they had an inside track on Yamamoto. How has that worked out - with another awful rotation. Or they continued to let the great be the enemy of the good.
If someone wants to argue that signing a FA starting pitcher isn't a worthwhile endeavor, that's all well and good. Plenty of evidence to back that up. But I do think the idea of saying we'll save the money for this FA class probably isn't all that realistic. I mean, does anyone really think they're going to pay top of the market prices for Burnes or Fried next year (if either even elect for free agency vs an extension). I certainly don't.
@Rovin Romine to be fair (and you're of course correct about the length of time) the same thing could have been said following the 2021 season, the 2022 season and now for the 2023 season (and I'm sure was) when people brought up needing some long term rotation stability. And every season has started out with a bad rotation (on paper) that ended up predictably being bad during the season - and this rotation is headed that way. When you see a pattern of failure with depending on "meh" prospects to develop from within, not making any trades for controllable starting pitching AND not bothering to sign literally anyone for multiple seasons, I think it's fair to discuss it in advance.
Side bar - if in 2024-25 they stick with nothing but players with so many warts they can only command one year deals, I'll predict that rotation to stink just like I do this one (and did the one last year).
Again, caveat that you're of course right about the timing. However, I'll subscribe to the Einstein theory of insanity here for the way the Sox have operated and seemingly are presently operating. Though to be clear, I give Breslow credit, in my heart of hearts, I don't think he at all believes that the current pitching is good. Of course, he can't say it directly, but I do think there has been enough innuendo - Gammons, Bill James, Breslow's own comments about not trading future wins for current wins; etc) to think he realizes that. I'm hopeful (and of the belief) that he does.
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FWIW, here's the 2025 pitching FA class with 2025 ages included:
Max Scherzer (41)
Zack Wheeler (35)
Corbin Burnes (30)
Robbie Ray (33)
Charlie Morton (41)
Max Fried (31)
Shane Bieber (30)
Walker Buehler (30)
Plus lots and lots of middle-tier guys (Giolito, Frankie Montas, Michael Wacha, Jack Flaherty, Jose Quintana, Merrill Kelly). There's also the possibility of Gerrit Cole opting out of his deal; he'd be giving up four years and $144 million to do that.
There's definitely room to get an ace there; next year's market looks a bit deeper than this one. But Burnes, Fried and Bieber are probably going to cost $100M+, and there are big question marks for the rest (age for Scherzer, Morton and Wheeler, post-TJ for Ray and Buehler). Is this ownership going to be as aggressive as needed to land one of the top three? Because that's going to require the kind of long-term deal that they haven't shown any interest in handing out.
Shrug. It's not all that mysterious to me. Or scandalous. The FSG is a business. It has a budget. The FSG is not going to just ignore their roster and the contracts on it and eat millions of dollars.
So I have no idea why people think that "overpaying for OK-to-Good-ness today is great, because we really need a guy." Take Yoshida. Last year we overpayed for him because we really needed a guy. Today, I think most of the board would like him traded. (I'm one of the few who thinks he could be good - at least as far as conversations and predictions here go.) And maybe the FSG agrees with the majority here, because there were rumors he was shopped. But guess what? It's probable his contract isn't seen as that great right now and so, there's no auto-trade to clear the LF/DH slot. If his contract were more reasonable, it would probably be easier to trade him.
In future years, the FSG is just not going to ignore their roster, and eat millions of dollars because they've loaded up on aging or underperforming or injured FAs. They're not going to magically trade poor contracts. They're not going to send prospects along to eat money.
Nobody expects other clubs to routinely operate like that, and when they (rarely) get pressured into it, like San Diego and the Mets, we laugh. Long and hard. Why this sort of magic thinking of "but it will work for us, now" should apply. . .it's just bizarre. You might want to consider the corollary of Einstein insanity definition in this context.
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I don't know how many caveats I need to load something obvious like this up with. Now-a-days, probably a lot. Like I'm not blindly green-lighting the Sox budget choices. Like I'd think the Sox generate enough money to spend up to the tax limit. Like I'd prefer to see Montgomery signed to a good contract. But then again, I'm on the optimistic end of the spectrum re: the current roster's potential, and I think someone like Montgomery would make a difference. So it's just weird to see people who are convinced they're only going to win 74 games (or whatever) get all frothy at the idea we need Montgomery Now Now Now!
As a PS, I disagree with you very much re: the rotations that were put in place for the last 3 years, but that's a discussion for another day. Suffice to say the public conversation would have an entirely different tenor if if Sale's freak injuries hadn't happened and they got into the post season for 2 out of the 3 years, instead of 1.
And not a single one on that list has a 2 at the start of their age, so if big contracts to pitchers who have turned 30 are a bad idea...
What gives you the impression that that was the thinking behind signing Yoshida? Obviously neither of us know for sure but I never really got that impression. FWIW, and it might not be much because they were kind of puff pieces but, I got the sense from the articles at that time that Bloom liked Yoshida in his evaluation and really wanted to bring him in.
It's also not quite an apples to apples comparison because the biggest issue with Yoshida is his fit on the roster. He's not a good defensive player and the two best hitters on the Red Sox are also not good defensive players (Casas and Devers). That makes the roster fit clunky and more difficult to build around.
The Sox don't really have that problem with starting pitchers
I've actually always agreed with this entirely. Granted, I always thought the budget was $LTT(.97) and now it appears to be lower as the LTT has gone up. Naturally, I don't know this, but historically they've most often spent a little below the tax going into a given season (exception, the DDski years).
I'd make the Story argument for (overpaid) because he was a known commodity. I don't think of Yoshida that way (just like I don't think of Lee that way, for instance), but that's just a personal opinion. Yoshida was tough because he was yet another LH hitter with questions on his defense. The team needed a core RH bat. I don't think of Yoshida as a "bust" as much as an overpay. I'm not in a hurry to move him (I wouldn't want to pay him to play elsewhere) but if he happened to hit RH I wouldn't want to move him at all. But he doesn't.
Edit - or what @Auger34 said.
FWIW, we agree that Montgomery would make a difference (I want him signed too). I think we disagree on the amount of difference he would make - possibly. I think without him you're looking at a club that struggles to win 77 games. I think with him (or any other "dependable" top half of the rotation starter added) you're looking at a team that is in serious contention for pretty much all the Wild Card spots. But I'm also a starting pitching honk...
Yeah on guys like Sale (or Paxton) I agree the best course is to respectfully agree to disagree, which I'm fine with. Though, to the point, I have honestly no interest in Snell (and would have had less than zero interest in Glasnow). I think the Sox need someone dependable as a top half of the rotation starter for the next several years while Breslow tries to rebalance / rebuild the farm. I think Montgomery is (just like Nola would have been). I don't think Snell is (just like I don't think Sale would have been, for instance).
FWIW, I don't laugh at the Padres or Mets. The team I actually laugh at are the Rays (and have enjoyed laughing at LAD). All those years in the playoffs. Never win jack. Though I'm much more of a "playoffs as a poker tournament" than "playoffs as a crapshoot" person, but that's again personal opinion.
I think the smartest thing Cora has said was (paraphrased) that the hopes the Red Sox stop trying to emulate other teams and go back to emulating the Red Sox. That's my hope too.
This is a really good question.
Thinking you are going to win FA's that you don't even know are available is not any sort of reasonable strategy. If Giolito has a good year he will opt out, and Pivetta is a free agent after this year. Unless you hit on the pitchers acquired this offseason - which is a long shot before '26 - I see no strategy that includes building a competitive rotation this year or next.
Which is why I believe they will sign Montgomery.
No it does not follow, you are correct.
But lack of good starting pitching is an organizational problem right now. And it's not something that's going to fix itself through internal development any time soon. Something must be done, and they already whiffed on the top guys.
If their plan is to sign retreads, projects, and pillow contract guys for the next five years or so until Breslow et al.'s pitching machine starts graduating guys, god help us all.
Tl;dr; it's not just about Monty. Someone has to pitch.
I think it comes down to stuff. Montgomery just isn’t close enough to Ace level to high $ and long contract. A couple guys on that list are a better bet (still might not be a good bet) to offer Ace level performance for a few years.
Breslow may be looking to pick up a Cubs pitcher on the cheap? From mlbtraderumors:
2. Cubs working on potential trade?
Center fielder Cody Bellinger’s deal with the Cubs has not yet been made official, and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic indicated yesterday that the Cubs are trying to work out a trade to clear space on the 40-man roster. Per Sharma, Chicago hopes to move a pitcher off its 40-man roster via trade in the coming days rather than risk losing a player for nothing on waivers. Speculatively speaking, that could mean the Cubs are shopping an arm towards the back of their bullpen depth chart such as Keegan Thompson, Jose Cuas, or Yency Almonte, or perhaps even a prospect such as Porter Hodge or Caleb Kilian. Sharma went on to suggest that if a trade cannot be worked out quickly, the Cubs could still designate a player for assignment in hopes that a trade of that player could be finalized over the seven-day window following the DFA.
Where does this say anything about the Sox/Breslow being involved? Or are you just guessing? None of those names strike me as particularly intriguing, though I guess if anyone has insight on which one might be prime for a breakout, it might be Breslow.
"Yes, they have to come up with a rotation both for this year and for 2025" probably should have been a caveat.
They have a rotation for this year, and how good it is, we'll see. Next year they may lose Giolitto and Pivetta, but that's it.
Breslow grabbed some high minors pitchers like Fitts, so they're probably in the mix for 2025/6, as the lower minors arms begin to percolate up. But we have our "usual suspects" of sub 30 guys over whom we have some control left:
Whitlock - FA after the 2026 season.
Houck - FA after 27.
Crawford - FA after 28.
Bello - FA after 28.
Winckowski - FA after 28.
Coming up with rotation potential are (maybe):
Fitts - late 2024.
Wikelman - 2025.
Dobbins - 2025.
Perales - 2026.
Sandlin - 2026?
And there are a bunch of guys further out or who seem more ticketed towards the pen, but also some randos like Song, Murphy, Walter, and Criswell.
A lot of the signing strategies for the club will turn on how solid they think these arms are. Can they get 3 ML starters out of the gang of 5? Are any of the 24/25 guys actually a shot to contribute? Do Breslow and Bailey come with enough pixie dust to give us one redeemed dark-horse pitcher?
(Frankly, it looks thin to me. Not deathly thin, but thin. We'll see how the minors are doing mid and end season though.)
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So the question is really "Given the state of things, what does Montgomery do for us, starting this year in his age 31 season?" Having a lefty who can go deep into games at his 2023 level of effectiveness would be good, obviously. But what about his age 32 season? Age 33? That's an assessment the front office has to value, and they shouldn't roll the dice on a panic signing for a player they would then not be able to easily move.
I like him as a sort of "middle rotation bridge" pitcher for 2-3 years, even on steeper money.
I don't like him as a sort of "decent but fills our elite pitcher contract slot" pitcher for the next 5 years.
This is why I still hope trading for Cease is in play. I guess you could wait for his impending free agency, assuming the WS don't send him to a team that extends him, but there just aren't a lot of pre-FA guys with a high ceiling worth paying for.
Yoshida is an example. If you disagree with the applicability, that's fine. You can choose another that makes the same point.
Sadly, most of what I have read on the minor league guys seems to indicate that the majority of them are destined for the pen at best. Adding Fitts and Sandlin for basically nothing was nice, though, and hopefully one of them is a back end or mid rotation starter.
That said, Breslow's pitching development machine hasn't even had a chance to do anything yet, and I am excited to see if any of these guys make progress this year. There are definitely some live arms in the low minors.
I 100% agree about your point on JM, but I think you already know that. I would love for him to be on the 2024 Sox. I am unsure about how I would feel about him on the 2026 Sox, because while he has been durable and reliable, he has also been in front of really good defenses and not pitching in Fenway, and his "stuff" feels like the kind of stuff that is going to fall off of a cliff sooner rather than later, and I think it is going to be ugly when it does. And because of that, I really have no interest at all in him being on the 2028 Sox staff at this point in time, tying up a roster spot and $20M+.
You can also try to work trades for lottery tickets. If a couple of them work out, you're talking 2 years of development rather than 5.
A couple of thoughts about Free Agent pitching:
- Montgomery and Nola are both 30 years old. Since 2021, Nola and Montgomery have made 96 and 94 starts, respectively, throwing 579.1 and 524.1 innings. Nola has a 4.09 ERA in that span while Montgomery has a 3.48 ERA. Nola's 1.077 WHIP since 2021 is better than Montgomery's 1.184 WHIP. Nola has a lot more strike outs and has given up more home runs (77) than Montgomery (58) since 2021. Nola just signed a 7 year/$172 million contract.
- I don't think there would be much disagreement with the prediction that, assuming a 2023 performance in line with their career averages, Burnes, Fried, Bieber, and Buehler will land contracts bigger than Nola's next year.
- I share the perspective that signing FA pitchers over the age of 30 to long deals is a bad way to run a team, and I'd balk at offering any of those four possible targets a seven or eight year deal. Which is what makes the possibility of Montgomery on a 4 year deal pretty attractive. I also like that he has been successful without overpowering stuff, which gives some hope that he can continue that trend over the next few years.
- And, if the Sox end up missing the playoffs and in last place in the AL East again this year, what free agent pitcher is going to choose to play in Boston? High taxes, challenging ball park, rough division, uncertain rotation... perennial loser is a tough sales pitch.
This also completely ignores the fact there is a very very good chance the Red Sox have 2 starting pitchers currently under control in 2025.
Do they really need to go into the 24-25 offseason needing to sign 3 starters?
The difference is that Monty helps the 2024 team. One thing Ownership has been clear about is that they expect to be competitive (or “competitive” based on your inclination).
At this point I don’t see anyone arguing “to sign Montgomery (at any cost) today” but we see a clear way to add an assest to improve the team this season. Pointing down the road is apparently great for the minority owners ROI, but less so for the people watching the team.
I would argue that you have to look at IP as well. If we wanted “stuff” we could just sign Snell.
Bailey Horn to the White Sox to clear a 40 man spot.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/cubs-trade-bailey-horn-white-sox-matt-thompson.html
Porter Hodge is exactly the kind of guy I can see Breslow making a move for.
From North Side Baseball...
It was probably surprising to some when the Cubs protected Hodge from the Rule 5 Draft last month, but take a deeper look into his pitch characteristics and you can start to see why the Cubs were interested in keeping him around. If you're a team who has an open bullpen spot and you think you can work with his kind of stuff, you find room. While I expect him to start the season in Iowa, that he's already a member of the 40-man suggests to me that he will be someone on the call-up radar for the Cubs come midseason. The Cubs have done decent work recently in converting starters into relievers and cleaning up some of their walk issues (i.e., Luke Little and Daniel Palencia) and Hodge could follow suit. A cutter-sweeper combination is the foundation for a righty-righty nightmare. With a decent curveball in his back pocket as well, there's also enough here where he doesn't have to be limited to right-handed hitters only.
While it would be premature to say that Hodge will be eating valuable innings for the Cubs down the stretch in a playoff run, the kind of stuff Hodge has makes him a bit of a unicorn. He's tall. He releases the ball from such a weird position, gets excellent extension, and has the kind of movement profile you dream on. Would it be shocking to see the Cubs rein in the walk totals a little bit? Not really. And we know new manager Craig Counsell is someone who loves pitchers with stuff and isn't afraid of turning to younger arms.
While that's true, it's a complete non sequitur in the conversation. There are other ways between now and March 2025 to address the 2025 rotation. And they're not only limited to signing 2025 FAs.
The Cubs made their roster move here already, Bailey Horn to the White Sox.
I agree. It’s why I don’t think people consider Snell an Ace. Two full season as great but not much in between.
Who are you willing to trade for two years of Cease? Because the White Sox will want a lot.
Mayer or maybe Teel. I wouldn't love it but those are the risks you have to take. One of them and some lesser prospects.
Maybe Mayer could be the centerpiece, but you'd probably have to add someone(s) pretty darn good with him. Technically "lesser" prospects, yes, but really good ones.
Closest comp to a Cease deal I can find where the selling team "only" got hitting was the Castillo deal from Cin to Seattle.
N Marte and Mayer are roughly similar. You'd need to add an Edwin Arroyo piece (probably Yorke, maybe Bleis if they'd prefer the upside / risk). Along with someone viewed similarly to Stoudt at the time (maybe Gonzalez; though Stoudt had been struggling for Seattle at that time - but Mayer was injured so might be seen as a bit below where Marte was.
But it'd probably have to look like lets say Mayer, Bleis and Gonzalez. Which I'd move for Cease in one second, but it would probably take offering that to make ChW even seriously consider it.
The issue I have with the Sox is they have needed bankable starters since they let Erod go after 2021 and Eovaldi go after 2022. There are only three ways of getting starters, develop them, trade for them, or sign free-agent starters. Perhaps they have developed a good one in Bello and a serviceable one in Crawford. I am hoping Giolito and Pivetta have good years. I like that Breslow has revamped the pitching development staff and has been turning over every rock for pitchers with potential. This team needed pitching starting pitching desperately last year and they did nothing about it. They desperately need it right now. If they think they are getting a decent year of starting pitching out of one of Winckowski, Houck, or Whitlock, they are just as deluded as the Pats are about their wide receivers the last few years.
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