Offseason rumors

[cantor44]

I was referring to pitchers, not position players. Name a premium pitcher who signed in Boston for less than premium dollars for the atmosphere and great fans.

This is very true - less than premium dollars, not so many. Though what players sign for less than premium (aside from, say, young players being extended early) anywhere? And so: the change in organization philosophy about paying premium dollars is the culprit, not the city itself.

 

[RS2004foreever]

Nothing

That’s easy for Friedman to say - the GM who has a seemingly unlimited budget. If I were a GM -with a budget-, I don’t think I’d use the dodgers as a template for what is or isn’t rational in free agency.

And really, being rational is not about being rational on every free agent. I think it’s about, from time to time, being able to identify those for whom you can stretch out of your comfort zone and pay whatever it takes to get them.

I don’t think Montgomery is one of those, regardless of what Boras says. I’d want him – but at my price.

The market sets the price. If you think you can dictate the price you will never sign anyone.

 

[CJM]

I think Eflin makes for an interesting thought experiment. He signed for 3/$40. He produced 3.5 WAR with 3.86 ERA and 186 SO. By WAR per million, he was worth about $28 million in the first year of his contract, a massive bargain.

If we reasonably assume:
-Eflin strongly preferred Tampa.
-The Sox could beat Tampa’s offers if they wanted.

Is there a dollar figure the Sox could have spent that would have outbid the Rays enough to sway him? If the Sox offered 3/50 or 4/60, might that have done it? Should the Sox have gone that big?

Hindsight’s 20/20, especially for the year Eflin had. And there’s no way to know if Eflin would have bit at a much higher offer. But if we take Friedman’s “if you always spend what’s rational…” quote as gospel, it seems like that sort of spending is what the Sox need to do.

I think there’s a decent chance Montgomery could be a similar situation and an offer that gets him will seem similarly uncomfortable at signing. Are we comfortable with 5/130? 6/150? My guess is anything less puts the Sox at the end of the line.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

I mean, you have no idea of knowing if YY would have chosen the Dodgers over the Red Sox if we threw $400M at him. Certainly not with anymore certainty than the board at large knows what the Sox's true internal salary cap is.

Beyond that, yeah Imanaga is imperfect, but isn't that basically every player if you look closely enough? I'm not sure what your point was with that one.

Imanaga was considered the 7th best starting pitcher available.

 

[simplicio]

I think Eflin makes for an interesting thought experiment. He signed for 3/$40. He produced 3.5 WAR with 3.86 ERA and 186 SO. By WAR per million, he was worth about $28 million in the first year of his contract, a massive bargain.

If we reasonably assume:
-Eflin strongly preferred Tampa.
-The Sox could beat Tampa’s offers if they wanted.

Is there a dollar figure the Sox could have spent that would have outbid the Rays enough to sway him? If the Sox offered 3/50 or 4/60, might that have done it? Should the Sox have gone that big?

Hindsight’s 20/20, especially for the year Eflin had. And there’s no way to know if Eflin would have bit at a much higher offer. But if we take Friedman’s “if you always spend what’s rational…” quote as gospel, it seems like that sort of spending is what the Sox need to do.

I think there’s a decent chance Montgomery could be a similar situation and an offer that gets him will seem similarly uncomfortable at signing. Are we comfortable with 5/130? 6/150? My guess is anything less puts the Sox at the end of the line.

The reporting on Eflin wasn't even that there was a bidding war; he got the offer from the Sox, took it to Tampa and they matched it. At some point there's a number they don't match, but you don't bid against yourself in hopes of finding it.

Bloom was also apparently working with a $225m cap, so I'm not sure if it would have been responsible to go much higher. They really did need bullpen help last winter too.

 

[OCD SS]

… and so we come back to Ownerships’s self-imposed financial limits as the reason the team won’t be improved.

 

[HfxBob]

The reporting on Eflin wasn't even that there was a bidding war; he got the offer from the Sox, took it to Tampa and they matched it. At some point there's a number they don't match, but you don't bid against yourself in hopes of finding it.

Bloom was also apparently working with a $225m cap, so I'm not sure if it would have been responsible to go much higher. They really did need bullpen help last winter too.

Their cap reportedly cost them Eovaldi.

 

[joe dokes]

Their cap reportedly cost them Eovaldi.

Slowly I turn.......

(It did not. Eovaldi's decision not to take the Sox offer and instead hope for a hot market and the sox signing several other pitchers before Eovaldi came back to them and said 'hey that offer looks pretty good now' "cost" them Eovaldi.)

 

[HfxBob]

Slowly I turn.......

(It did not. Eovaldi's decision not to take the Sox offer and instead hope for a hot market and the sox signing several other pitchers before Eovaldi came back to them and said 'hey that offer looks pretty good now' "cost" them Eovaldi.)

All depends how you frame it, right? Maybe Bloom should have allowed for that possibility. Or maybe the budget should have been more flexible. Plus it appears they could have signed Eovaldi and not signed Kluber and still squeezed under the first threshold. In any case it suggests mismanagement of priorities, finances etc. - for a team with the resources of the Red Sox.

I'd say the bigger issue was that in Bloom's 4 years the biggest contract he gave to a starting pitcher was $10 million.

 

[HfxBob]

I don't think there will be an auction - If he decides he is going to drop his price I am guessing Boras contacts the teams in order of who he wants to play for.

That makes sense.

But I'm not sure what's stopping the Red Sox from putting an offer on the table like the Yankees did with Snell - presumably closer to Boras's ask than the Yankees's reported offer was.

 

[geoflin]

All depends how you frame it, right? Maybe Bloom should have allowed for that possibility.

Allowed for the possibility how? Expect that Eovaldi would come back to them a month or more later and say "hey, that's a pretty good offer after all" and do nothing in the interim while holding out for that to happen? Or should Bloom have bid against himself and raised what was already the highest offer?

I'm not a Bloom apologist but this is not an example of one of his or the Sox's failures.

 

[HfxBob]

Allowed for the possibility how? Expect that Eovaldi would come back to them a month or more later and say "hey, that's a pretty good offer after all" and do nothing in the interim while holding out for that to happen? Or should Bloom have bid against himself and raised what was already the highest offer?

Eovaldi hadn't signed yet, so he was still available. The bottom line, apparently, was that Bloom only had $10 million or so left to spend on a starting pitcher, so we got Kluber.

 

[geoflin]

Eovaldi hadn't signed yet, so he was still available. The bottom line, apparently, was that Bloom only had $10 million or so left to spend on a starting pitcher, so we got Kluber.

Meanwhile they had signed Jansen. Nobody at that point knew that Kluber would be a bust so it's understandable that they wouldn't want to spend the money on Eovaldi. Hindsight is always 20-20.

 

[greek_gawd_of_walks]

Meanwhile they had signed Jansen. Nobody at that point knew that Kluber would be a bust so it's understandable that they wouldn't want to spend the money on Eovaldi. Hindsight is always 20-20.

I mean, I think plenty of people thought Kluber wouldn't be good (Garrett Richards at best) if not a bust. And would certainly not replicate what Wacha delivered the previous year. Spending ten mil on an end-of-his-rope Klubot for one year should never factor into a longer term deal for a better pitcher (especially one who had succeeded in Boston and expressed at least some interest in staying).

As you say, hindsight is 20/20 and things happen in a particular order (and I'll admit, that off-season timeline is hazy to me, probably for good reason), but it's ridiculous, if not extremely believable-- especially with this ownership group--, that Kluber would prevent them from getting a better pitcher for longer term.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Oh, I agree…it would be interesting to know, though, why the team thought they were going to be able to trade for a cost-controlled SP, and why they ultimately couldn’t (at least so far). Was it a matter of what they had to deal not being valued as highly as they expected, not enough teams willing to deal, or likely a little bit of both?

I would guess both. Teams probably held out for one of the ATM Machine, and why wouldn't they?

 

[brandonchristensen]

It’s gotta be super stressful with spring training already starting and being unsigned as the reigning Cy Young winner.

There’s such a disconnect between expectations and the reality of the situation.

 

[Sox Pride]

It’s gotta be super stressful with spring training already starting and being unsigned as the reigning Cy Young winner.

There’s such a disconnect between expectations and the reality of the situation.

Not sure why it's stressful at all.
He's probably made ten's of millions of dollars in his career. He will highly likely makes tens of millions of dollars more - even 100 million.

Likely, he's saved a bunch and can wait out a few without any financial difficulties.


Sure if he gets hit by a bus, or his arm gets cut off, he'll be majorly impacted financially. But that's the same for all of us.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

It’s gotta be super stressful with spring training already starting and being unsigned as the reigning Cy Young winner.

There’s such a disconnect between expectations and the reality of the situation.

Why? He knows he’s going to get a contract that pays him eight figures a year, he doesn’t have to go through the shit part of Spring Training and chances are he’ll end up with a team that has designs on being in the hunt.and he gets to hang around his family for an extra few weeks, if that’s what he digs

Seems like a win win to me.

Snell, Montgomery, etc aren’t like a regular pweson who was laid off and is looking for a job. They’re all but guaranteed a job at a high salary. And if the unthinkable happens and they have to retire, they’ve all made tens of millions of dollars.

Projecting the working person’s anxiety on a pro athlete is silly.

 

[HfxBob]

I don't think anyone feels sorry for Boras's clients. But I can also appreciate that it would be a little weird at this date to have no idea what your next contract is going to be for or who it's going to be with.

 

[moondog80]

Why? He knows he’s going to get a contract that pays him eight figures a year, he doesn’t have to go through the shit part of Spring Training and chances are he’ll end up with a team that has designs on being in the hunt.and he gets to hang around his family for an extra few weeks, if that’s what he digs

Seems like a win win to me.

Snell, Montgomery, etc aren’t like a regular pweson who was laid off and is looking for a job. They’re all but guaranteed a job at a high salary. And if the unthinkable happens and they have to retire, they’ve all made tens of millions of dollars.

Projecting the working person’s anxiety on a pro athlete is silly.

Point taken, but these guys are still human. I'd think that at some point a little anxiety about the situation starts to creep in, even if they aren't living paycheck to paycheck. And even on that last point, some of these guys live pretty large, IIRC last time there was a work stoppage a surprising amount of them had to take out loans to bridge the gap.

 

[YTF]

Why? He knows he’s going to get a contract that pays him eight figures a year, he doesn’t have to go through the shit part of Spring Training and chances are he’ll end up with a team that has designs on being in the hunt.and he gets to hang around his family for an extra few weeks, if that’s what he digs

Seems like a win win to me.

Snell, Montgomery, etc aren’t like a regular pweson who was laid off and is looking for a job. They’re all but guaranteed a job at a high salary. And if the unthinkable happens and they have to retire, they’ve all made tens of millions of dollars.

Projecting the working person’s anxiety on a pro athlete is silly.

Generally speaking I agree, but we're all wired differently. Uncertainty can be a cause of angst as can a need for a certain type of order in one's life. I suppose the player can expedite the process to a certain extent if he chooses to do so, but some might feel that they owe it to the agent to do what they feel is best.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

It’s gotta be super stressful with spring training already starting and being unsigned as the reigning Cy Young winner.

There’s such a disconnect between expectations and the reality of the situation.

I agree. Imagine having 5 or 10 different potential home cities for the next 5+ years, with the expectation that you will arrive on site and have one month to become part of team that is expects peak performance from you immediately. Add to this needing to find a home, schools for kids, the logistics of a move with a spouse/partner. All of that is stressful, and I imagine even more so for an athlete who likely is a product of a very defined routine.

Should we feel badly for them? Of course not, they are multi-millionaires being paid to play a game. And they have the resources available to address each of those issues. But there is likely stressed caused by delay.

 

[mikcou]

Point taken, but these guys are still human. I'd think that at some point a little anxiety about the situation starts to creep in, even if they aren't living paycheck to paycheck. And even on that last point, some of these guys live pretty large, IIRC last time there was a work stoppage a surprising amount of them had to take out loans to bridge the gap.

Over half the league made under $1M last year. The financial considerations that segment of the player population have and what Blake Snell ($16M last year)/Jordan Montgomery ($10M last year) have don’t really overlap.

 

[VORP Speed]

Not sure why it's stressful at all.
He's probably made ten's of millions of dollars in his career. He will highly likely makes tens of millions of dollars more - even 100 million.

Likely, he's saved a bunch and can wait out a few without any financial difficulties.


Sure if he gets hit by a bus, or his arm gets cut off, he'll be majorly impacted financially. But that's the same for all of us.

Jordan Montgomery’s career earnings are $20m. So let’s assume he’s taken home $10m minus what he spends to live, buy a house, etc. That’s nice, but not really FU money or anything. He’s now looking at a contract for truly life-changing, generational wealth. Ramping up for the season as a pitcher carries a real risk of injury. You start throwing simulated games and walk off the mound with forearm tightness and you’re hosed. I’d be anxious. The difference between locking in $100m vs $150m doesn’t really move the needle at all on your life but either one puts you in a very different place than he currently is. A hitter prob doesn’t have too much to worry about, but for a pitcher I don’t like that risk/reward calculation.

 

[moondog80]

Over half the league made under $1M last year. The financial considerations that segment of the player population have and what Blake Snell ($16M last year)/Jordan Montgomery ($10M last year) have don’t really overlap.

Of course. But it's not just the league minimum guys who run into financial issues. Jack Clark, Lenny Dykstra, and Antoine Walker have all filed for bankruptcy.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Montgomery has also played for three teams in the last two years, so I imagine has gotten a bit used to this. He also doesn’t have any kids and his wife is in medical school so we don’t have to worry about uprooting the children and disrupting their schooling at this point.

 

[uncannymanny]

Being a pitcher carries a real risk of injury.

FTFY. Honestly, these guys are working out, as stated. They could get hurt just as well in camp. They knew the deal and signed up for it. I doubt either of them are too concerned about this. It’s some weeks, then they’ll be wherever for a number of years.

 

[VORP Speed]

FTFY. Honestly, these guys are working out, as stated. They could get hurt just as well in camp. They knew the deal and signed up for it. I doubt either of them are too concerned about this. It’s some weeks, then they’ll be wherever for a number of years.

Who cares if you get hurt in camp? You’d have a guaranteed contract.

 

[uncannymanny]

So you don’t throw in the offseason? Getting hurt is always a possibility.

 

[VORP Speed]

You don’t throw 100% off a mound with all your pitches until very late in the off-season or spring training typically, is my understanding. Guys don’t usually tear their UCL doing long toss in the off-season.

 

[chrisfont9]

Montgomery has also played for three teams in the last two years, so I imagine has gotten a bit used to this. He also doesn’t have any kids and his wife is in medical school so we don’t have to worry about uprooting the children and disrupting their schooling at this point.

Yeah, that's a huge difference. I'm sure many of us know all the systems you have to have in place for kids, even if you have millions of dollars you still need to find reliable help for this and that.

 

[YTF]

Kids are definitely a concern, but I'm guessing most are likely to stay where they are through the end of the school year if for nothing else but to temper those concerns.

 

[moondog80]

I'd also guess Boras has things in place to alleviate as many concerns as possible for his clients, including help for those who need the cash flow.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Point taken, but these guys are still human. I'd think that at some point a little anxiety about the situation starts to creep in, even if they aren't living paycheck to paycheck. And even on that last point, some of these guys live pretty large, IIRC last time there was a work stoppage a surprising amount of them had to take out loans to bridge the gap.

Generally speaking I agree, but we're all wired differently. Uncertainty can be a cause of angst as can a need for a certain type of order in one's life. I suppose the player can expedite the process to a certain extent if he chooses to do so, but some might feel that they owe it to the agent to do what they feel is best.

I know what you guys are saying. If it was me, I’d be nervous and feel as if the game is moving on without me. I absolutely hear that.

But I think if you are the type of person who chooses Scott Boras as an agent, you kinda don’t give a shit what people think. Your focus is getting the most money that you can—maximize your value at all times.

And I’m sure that’s what Boras is telling them. “don’t worry, you know this part of ST sucks, you’re in great shape, we’ll figure out all of the family shit. Trust me you’re going to get paid.”

I think that if you hear that message enough and you have the mindset of the top percentage of a pro ball player (Boras doesn’t rep scrubs), then I think that the work anxieties us mere mortals face don’t affect them.

My guess is that they’re focused on getting paid handsomely. I really don’t think it matters much if they spend the baseball season in NY, LA, Atlanta or Cleveland. These guys live in gated communities that are indistinguishable from region to region to region. It’s not like Snell is going to choose between a tenement in the Bronx or a place in Buckhead.

 

[mr_smith02]

This post deserves a lot more love.

Well done, @Remagellan.

Am I the only one who thinks of DRS every time they see your avatar?

 

[Al Zarilla]

I don't think anyone feels sorry for Boras's clients. But I can also appreciate that it would be a little weird at this date to have no idea what your next contract is going to be for or who it's gong to be with.

Don't have the time or the stomach to look at places to live in all the possible MLB cities they may end up so just stay in hotels for a while? I don't know how that works.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Don't have the time or the stomach to look at places to live in all the possible MLB cities they may end up so just stay in hotels for a while? I don't know how that works.

Boras has people who work for him that put together dossiers on where to live in MLB cities. This is part of what his (and I assume other agents) agencies do.

Not only that but ball players talk and have friends in all of these cities. “Where do you live? Is it nice? Know of any houses?”

Not only that but I’m pretty sure the teams have people who do things like that for the players too. To paraphrase F. Scott Fitzgerald, “Ballplayers are different than you and me.”

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Boras has people who work for him that put together dossiers on where to live in MLB cities. This is part of what his (and I assume other agents) agencies do.

Not only that but ball players talk and have friends in all of these cities. “Where do you live? Is it nice? Know of any houses?”

Not only that but I’m pretty sure the teams have people who do things like that for the players too. To paraphrase F. Scott Fitzgerald, “Ballplayers are different than you and me.”

This reminds me of this story, which I read in ESPN magazine while I was waiting to get my car's oil changed years ago:

When Manny signed in Boston, his agent took him out to look at houses. When they found one Manny liked (for like, say, $2 million), Manny asked his agent if he could afford it. The agent replied that he could buy the entire neighborhood. An off-field Manny being Manny.

 

[RS2004foreever]

One aspect of the delay is it does gives the Red Sox more time to evaluate their in house options for starting pitching. I am certain that is not why the big four are not sign, and it may well be the Red Sox have 0 intention of signing anyone else.

But you might have some people like Wink get a start or two.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Are these guys even buying houses where they sign? I can’t imagine most Sox players live in the area full time, and would guess most have condos / homes in Boston during the season but live elsewhere the rest of the year.

The idea that they have to find a home and school for their kids doesn’t even make sense; no one wants to move their kid to start a new school in April and most players kids would probably be on the younger end to begin with. (Montgomery doesn’t have any children; Snell’s girlfriend is pregnant with their first).

 

[Yo La Tengo]

The dividing line is having a spouse/partner. Adding kids ups the stress x10.

Low stress for single dudes.
High stress for everyone else.

can you imagine the conversation every night?

“what did Scott say about when we are going to live for the next 5+ years?”

 

[Delicious Sponge]

A lot of people are seriously underestimating how much money we're talking about here. I mean making $10M just once is life changing.

Being able to make that -- and more -- GUARANTEED for several years, puts you in a completely different universe. The kids will be fine, and the wife absolutely must understand what's at stake here.

Bottom line: it's all gonna be more than a little bit fine for each of these 4 guys. We can stop worrying about them.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

Hey, some of us care if the pool at Montgomery’s house in Wellesley will be heated.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

The dividing line is having a spouse/partner. Adding kids ups the stress x10.

Low stress for single dudes.
High stress for everyone else.

can you imagine the conversation every night?

“what did Scott say about when we are going to live for the next 5+ years?”

Again. The wives understand this, I doubt they’re constantly asking their husbands where they’re going to live. Mainly, because like it’s been said over and over again, you don’t drag your kids out of school in February bring them to Florida for six weeks and the enroll them in a new school in April.

Even if the player sign a long-term deal, they won’t immediately live in the city they work in. They have a house where they live, which in probably nowhere near where they play now. If every thing went perfectly, my guess is that most families (especially with school aged children) are leaving their homes until the summer.

The idea that a wife is so anxious about her husband’s job—which is a life that she willingly signed up for and absolutely understands—that she’s asking him about what’s going on every day like she’s Morrie Kessler bugging Jim Conway for his cut of the Lufthansa heist is ridiculous.

 

[EvilEmpire]

"Honey, I understand how irritating this is, but being patient may result in us earning millions more dollars or at least give us a better chance to play and live in one of our prefered locations. Are you good with that?"

"Yes"

 

[RobertsSteal]

Am I the only one who thinks of DRS every time they see your avatar?

One of my favorite memories. In fact, I gave my son an extra middle name when he was born in Feb ‘05. We had already settled on Steele—a family name—for his middle name. I added Roberts to go before it. So he’s Jacob Roberts Steele _____.

 

[E5 Yaz]

One of my favorite memories. In fact, I gave my son an extra middle name when he was born in Feb ‘05. We had already settled on Steele—a family name—for his middle name. I added Roberts to go before it. So he’s Jacob Roberts Steele _____.

This is easily the most interesting thing that's been posted in this thread in what ... days? ... weeks? ... months?

 

[mr_smith02]

One of my favorite memories. In fact, I gave my son an extra middle name when he was born in Feb ‘05. We had already settled on Steele—a family name—for his middle name. I added Roberts to go before it. So he’s Jacob Roberts Steele _____.

That is very cool!

 

[Sox Pride]

One of my favorite memories. In fact, I gave my son an extra middle name when he was born in Feb ‘05. We had already settled on Steele—a family name—for his middle name. I added Roberts to go before it. So he’s Jacob Roberts Steele _____.

that’s awesome!
My daughter (first child) was born within days of the end of the 2004 World Series win.
she has no idea how close she was to being named Damona Curtitia Ramires Ortiz Roberta ….

 

[bernie carb 33]

Overnight one of Boras' guys, Belinger, signs with the Cubbies. (3/$80m) I think that loosens up some of the bottleneck next week. My guess, Yanks get Snell wrapped up on Monday, they want that guy. The rest of the field, 5-6 clubs, will fight over the other pitchers later in the week.