Certainly doesn't hurt, but I'm dubious that this means any real change in direction. Theo's next step was always ownership. Glad it's with the Sox.
Offseason rumors
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Do we know for sure that the Bradford tweet was referring to Theo's return? I must say, I am intrigued at the return for Burnes. Not what I thought it would be, not sure if we ever made any offers but it definitely feels like we could have obtained him at an equivalent price. The fact that he went to an AL East team also hurts, I can't see how we'll even be a fringe contender next season with our current rotation.
Seems extremely likely based on this
View: https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1753418183233474717?s=46
I guess the difference (in relation to Soler and basically anything that has enough warts as to only take a one year deal is...) I don't necessarily think there are "holes", or at least we don't know that yet, so we might as well find out if there IS a hole or if there is a good piece already in house - in a season that doesn't seem like it's shaping up to matter much in terms of wins and losses - which is depressing, but as we sit here 3 weeks from Spring Training, is what it looks like.
Soler is 1) a bat that is ostensibly best suited to DH - of which the team has two elite ones in Devers and Casas (though I'm not willing to relegate Casas to DH only status just yet because he did improve at 1b over last season and I'll assume he can build up to "average" there, and one of which is pretty good in Yoshida. Also as another DH option of which you already have Valdez, that just put up a 118 wRC+ in AAA so you basically have to see if he's any good in the majors because you're not learning anything else about his bat with more time in AAA - same for Abreu. 2) An OF - there are already 5 of those on the roster - O'Neill, Refsnyder, Duran, Abreu, Yoshida - two of which are already RHH in O'Neill and Refnsyder.
I'm not saying that Soler isn't better than Yoshida, Duran, Abreu or Valdez - he probably is - but if you already think they're so bad that you need to sign Soler (in the case of Abreu and Valdez) then just get rid of those players and stop pretending that just because they can crush AAAA (like Bobby Dalbec) that they're going to ever be worthwhile. Either find out if they're going to be good, or stop planning on anything from them in the future.
Same thing with signing someone like Lorenzen for one year. If you don't think that Tanner Houck, Josh Winckowski, Garrett Whitlock or whatever else are better than one year of Mike Lorenzen, move them all to the bullpen and stop thinking they're worthwhile starters.
To the other point, it's more the idea of realizing a gain before investing more capital in this circumstance. Move Sale, get Grissom, back fill. Same with Verdugo to O'Neill.
Anyway, I really don't begrudge anyone the mindset of "it's not my money, they aren't going over the tax, might as well spend on something." I just have a different perspective is all.
Edited to reflect that Valdez is yet another "can probably hit certainly can't field LHH DH type option" as opposed to RHH.
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Have to say, while the Theo return seems like good news, that tweet had me hoping we were actually going to do something like sign Montgomery/Snell to a contract the franchise could live with, and that my whining about the direction of the team is taking is wrong.
I'd argue that bringing in Theo in an ownership role shows a hell of a lot more commitment to the future of the Red Sox than signing Jordan Montgomery would.
And there is still time for that, too.
I don't think Houck/Crawford plus Rafaela (the closest Red Sox equivalent I can find to Hall/Ortiz) is something I'd be comfortable giving up for a rental at this point. And that neglects that the comp A pick is pretty valuable so we'd have to throw in another solid prospect (Yorke?).
It was light but most teams are smarter now than to give up elite prospects for a rental,
Rentals are awesome for certain teams: Teams poised to win now, and teams with such ridiculous farm systems that losing a few decent prospects doesn't even make a dent. Not a ton of overlap in the Venn diagram there. Baltimore is clearly right in the middle of it though. The Red Sox fail the first criterion bigtime.
Strong agreement.
Also, sure, it's money, but Theo actually agreeing to come back (even in an ownership / part time / advisory / consigliere / whatever role) makes me more confident in the commitment to win put an important product on the field as opposed to just selling the experience like it's seeing the Roman Forum. Epstein is not a moron, and I don't think he'd come back if he thought that the flagship of the armada was going to be left to rot. I'm pretty sure he could have gotten this "deal" with other franchises based on his cachet in the game. The fact that its from FSG and for FSG is a very good thing.
(Still don't think they're signing Montgomery, but I'm bumping my certainty level down to 95% from the 99.99% it was yesterday).
Exciting news for sure, but I'm not sure that we know exactly what deal he got yet. I'm thinking it's a fairly rare opportunity.
This is fair.
My greater point was that I really don't think he'd come back in any capacity if he truly believed the Red Sox were now seen as nothing more than Fenway Park being a tourist attraction or whatever else we've heard bandied about recently. Could of course be wrong, but I don't believe that.
Not that it changes much of your thinking, but Valdez hits lefty.
Thanks. But yeah, I should have known that. Feel free to add him to the other "guys that should be a DH" pile and I'll edit that part.
Also - to be 1,000% clear, I'm more than fine with someone saying "Abreu, Valdez and the like all stink and we're signing Soler and trading them for flotsam and jetsam; or DFAing them in corresponding moves" but if you think those players are good or might be good one day - they're not exactly young, so see what they have, or get rid of them and hopefully open a spot for someone you think can contribute.
I put Abreu and Valdez in different tiers. Abreu has shown he can actually hit big league pitching and has a defensive home. I think you can pretty easily find 100+ starts for him even if you bring Soler aboard.
Valdez legitimately has things to work on in AAA. He’s terrible at defense and if he can’t improve that, he needs to mash to have a spot in the big leagues. So far he has not proven he can do that even at the AAA level. He has 2 options…let him try to improve and force his way up.
But if you want to have depth in your organization, it's a lot easier to have young guys you're not sure about riding the AAA shuttle than to try to sign a major league free agent to a backup role. Nobody who is good enough to give you starter production is going to sign in a place where they can't get at bats. Just ask Jay Payton.
I don’t really care how it looks, but if the RS grab Theo and a week later sign Montgomery it is going to appear as though the Sox cut Breslow’s balls off. Sorry for the rude description, but it would totally undermine him, even despite the many follow up stories that Theo is not involved in player transactions.
What are you talking about? All evidence points to Breslow and Theo having an excellent relationship. Who they do or don't sign going forward indicates no "undermining". I'm pretty sure Breslow is happy to now have Theo to talk baseball matters with rather than Kennedy or Werner. And Theo is trusted by Henry, so it probably benefits Breslow greatly if he and Theo are on the same page.
Edit: From the Sportico piece:
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On the baseball side, Epstein says he’ll act as a sounding board and executive coach, if needed, to the Red Sox baseball operations people. Notably, he hired Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow while at the Cubs.
“I’m a full believer in him and what he and his team are going to mean for the Red Sox,”
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Sounds like a dream collaboration to me.
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Nah. Breslow was considered to be Theo’s protege. Theo reportedly recommended Breslow for the job to his buddy Kennedy in the first place. I think it’s fair to assume that Theo and Breslow already have similar approaches and that a signing of the magnitude of Montgomery, were it to occur, would therefore be something they would both have endorsed anyway. There is nothing to see here.
Edit: CR67 beat me to it.
Agreed. My take, if (and that's a BIG IF) Montgomery signs with the Sox, that Breslow would get the lion's share of the credit. FA deals, especially for premier FA's, generally do not happen overnight. There's overtures, parameters of the deal, relationship building, etc. All things that take a bit of time. If JM signs tomorrow, this would still be Breslow's deal.
The only way that this would undermine Breslow is, and I do not believe this at all, if Breslow did not want JM, in which case Breslow woul dhave been overruled in pretty much the same manner that Lucchino would overrule/undermine Theo. I highly doubt that Theo would do this in the opening days of Theo Part Deux.
The only way that this would undermine Breslow is, and I do not believe this at all, if Breslow did not want JM, in which case Breslow woul dhave been overruled in pretty much the same manner that Lucchino would overrule/undermine Theo. I highly doubt that Theo would do this in the opening days of Theo Part Deux.
I think the only real similarities to the Theo/Lucchino relationship are that there now is a true baseball guy involved in the ownership group that baseball ops can talk to on that level, and that a guy in his first-time in the big chair now works with a trusted mentor. Maybe in this case the best baseball guy and mentor on the planet. And certainly a guy the majority owner trusts.
I don't think there are many parallels otherwise, Theo and Larry are two completely different personalities, and I would be shocked if Theo came in aggressively looking for attention or credit or airtime. Theo's been on the other end of that, I think he's learned what doesn't work, doesn't work.
I just think that all indications are that Theo is completely on board with Breslow and his team, and I don't think any transaction or non transaction made this off season means a thing as far as impacting their working relationship goes. I mean nothing's perfect, but the Red Sox hierarchy sure looks a hell of a lot better to me than it did yesterday.
This is right technically and insane practically.
Theo Epstein was not given an equity position in FSG because he’s the best basketball player in the world.
He was given equity because he is a historically great baseball executive.
People who do not think he will have input are really really overthinking this.
Did I say he wouldn't have input? They've acknowledged that he will be an adviser. That doesn't mean he has any actual say in baseball ops decisions such as signing Jordan Montgomery (or not). I'm sure Breslow will seek his opinion on a lot of things, but Theo isn't going to have any kind of veto power or an ability to go over Breslow's head to affect the roster, which is what the OP was implying.
Agreed. I posted as much in the Theo thread. If this turns into that sort of working relationship (functionally speaking), I fully expect it to be without the drama that Lucchino would bring. Theo's a smart guy. If he values Breslow (and I'm sure he does), the last thing Theo would want to do is treat someone the same way Lucchino treated him.
True but Theo’s obviously going to have way more input than LeBron James (which is what Southern was replying to)
Both fair points @scottieo2 and @Max Power. No reason to continue talking in circles.
As I said, it's a one year deal to someone that doesn't materially change the outlook of the 2024 team nor the future, so if we sign Soler (or Lorenzen, or whatever) I'll just hope that they're good enough to net a decent prospect in July.
(Edit - for the record I always stated this regarding Hernandez, but don't think I have yet regarding Soler. If Breslow feels that he is the answer in LF or even DH over the somewhat long term, and wants to give him a 3 year deal because he doesn't think anyone - possibly excepting Anthony - is all that good and Soler is, I'm totally on board with that. I don't want to see more players brought in on one year deals unless it's to replace somebody moved, such as Sale or Verdugo were. I'd say the same about Bellinger or Chapman - moving Devers to DH - for the record.)
As I said, it's a one year deal to someone that doesn't materially change the outlook of the 2024 team nor the future, so if we sign Soler (or Lorenzen, or whatever) I'll just hope that they're good enough to net a decent prospect in July.
(Edit - for the record I always stated this regarding Hernandez, but don't think I have yet regarding Soler. If Breslow feels that he is the answer in LF or even DH over the somewhat long term, and wants to give him a 3 year deal because he doesn't think anyone - possibly excepting Anthony - is all that good and Soler is, I'm totally on board with that. I don't want to see more players brought in on one year deals unless it's to replace somebody moved, such as Sale or Verdugo were. I'd say the same about Bellinger or Chapman - moving Devers to DH - for the record.)
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You said he has no more hierarchical decision making for the Red Sox than Lebron James.
That’s an incredibly silly thing to think.
As is thinking he's going to swoop in and take over baseball ops entirely and "save" the Red Sox.
It's great that he's back in the fold, but I don't think this is going to be as impactful, at least in the immediate future of the Red Sox, as some others.
Ironically, I think Theo will play the same role as Larry Luccino. He won’t behave the same way. He won’t be a dick. He won’t publicly thwart Breslow, who is someone he already believes in. But his word will carry a lot of weight with the owners and when it comes to deals, he can turn “no” into a “yes” and a “yes” into a “no”
EVERYONE's known Burnes has been available. Ideas have been floated for trying for an Adames/Burnes twofer. But most people (including me) don't want to trade assets/prospects for a one year rental.
Both Sosa and Burnes are on my covet list - so I would like to see the Sox checkbook open - next summer.
And to me, if it means not signing a 31 year old pitcher who had his best year last year and isn't particularly elite to a long-term big-money contract, I am okay with that. I wanted YY because of his age/elite skill level.
I covet Sasaki for the same reason next year. Burnes/Wheeler/Fried are all a level above what was available this summer. I have no problem with the Sox keeping their powder dry.
Burnes, being a client of Boras, most likely won't extend for O's. Boras will make sure he gets back on the market, it's the way he works.
The Sox mL system seems to have had so many significant injuries to its top tier guys that if they were consistently healthy there’s be much more depth.
But right now what team would want Bleis or Mata- two guys that a year ago were close to untouchable. This offseason everyone here is ready to deal Mayer after an injured season and other teams likely value him way less than this point last season. It was Yorke the year prior.
Mikey Romero was pretty highly regarded after his drafting and has done zero after injuries.
Roman Anthony right now can only be dealt for an extension-Burnes or a 3-years of control type. If he gets injured and slumps…. I expect SoSH to start throwing him casually into trades….. but his value to other teams to plummet.
Generally just saying that the Sox system has depth but injuries have really cleaned out that second tier of valuable chips
But right now what team would want Bleis or Mata- two guys that a year ago were close to untouchable. This offseason everyone here is ready to deal Mayer after an injured season and other teams likely value him way less than this point last season. It was Yorke the year prior.
Mikey Romero was pretty highly regarded after his drafting and has done zero after injuries.
Roman Anthony right now can only be dealt for an extension-Burnes or a 3-years of control type. If he gets injured and slumps…. I expect SoSH to start throwing him casually into trades….. but his value to other teams to plummet.
Generally just saying that the Sox system has depth but injuries have really cleaned out that second tier of valuable chips
Bleis would be attractive to teams I would think. The Sox are saying he's ready for spring training. I'm sure lots of teams have scouts who remember him. He should still be considered a huge trade chip, even if a lot of casual viewers are just assuming his shoulder issue is some new permanent reality.
Mata is a whole different story since he's 24 and still struggling with command. He's useful but the ceiling is low.
Yeah, Mata was an intriguing prospect with a lot of upside but he was never near the levle of Bleis, who was looking like a top 50 guy going into last year. Very, very different caliber of prospects.
Mikey Romero is an interesting case. He was a helium draftee, who wasn't universally loved as a draft prospect, and 2023 was a total lost season. There are reasons to like him from his predraft days, but basically we have no useful info as a professional, thus far.
Mikey Romero is an interesting case. He was a helium draftee, who wasn't universally loved as a draft prospect, and 2023 was a total lost season. There are reasons to like him from his predraft days, but basically we have no useful info as a professional, thus far.
Mikey was great in his draft season in 2022, albeit shortened as a draftee. Then he was injured for most of 2023 and struggled. The info is limited but not useless. This is a big year for him
IMO, I keep telling myself over and over, Breslow is biding his time. He talked trade for Burnes and Cease a couple months ago. He has a glut of MiLB folks at the middle and the bottom of the 40-man. In order to clear some space, I think he is ripe for a trade for a middle of the rotation guy like Jesus Luzardo of the Marlins. He is in the area of a Paxton type budget and will satisfy the Sox low spending habits. Currently signed for $5.5mil.
Luzardo is much closer to a top of the rotation guy, and will command a big return.
Agree here. He acted very quickly on a series of necessary trades, and did what could be done for Yamamoto. All that’s happened since is he A) didn’t trade elite prospects for one-year pitching rentals, B) has waited out a fairly flush DH market C) did not immediately give Snell or Montgomery the exorbitant contract demands set by Boras, but have remained engaged according to many accounts by national reporters.
The Giants cleared some payroll with the Stripling salary dump trade. Hopefully that means they’ll sign one of the four soon, and things will start moving.
What I like about this is if there is a player Breslow really wants but it will cost $ he will have a powerful advocate to help him with Henry.
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