15M AAV for Giolito? Bailey would have to work a lot of magic to make that close to palpable.
5M max reclamation project I can maybe stomach.
5M max reclamation project I can maybe stomach.
Offseason rumors
- Thread starter opes
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I'm still on team Jorge Polanco. Much better baseball player than Drury, imo.
Giolito's a good get at a decent price. Seems like the Sox really like guys with extreme extension, and Giolito certainly seems fixable to me.
Sorry for the long post, but I think there is a lot of good stuff to respond to and talk about that people posted from last night.
@chawson - thanks for sharing those "rumors." If literally nothing else, they're logical, which makes them a lot better than the crap someone like Nightengale or Bowden put out there, even if they're "connected." Keep 'em coming. Mostly because I think we'd all RATHER have rumors - or even legitimate moves - to talk about, and in the absence of that we talk amongst ourselves. Mostly because we're all Red Sox (or baseball) fans and in terms of coverage in the Boston sports media, the Red Sox have become basically an afterthought somewhere between the Bruins and the Revs (which was literally unthinkable to me as few as 5 years ago, but here we are), so we talk here.
As to the information in them, I agree that they seem connected enough to give them as much veracity as anything we'd give to Nightengale, Heyman, Merloni, etc.
Put me firmly in the pay Montgomery whatever it takes camp. Not because I think he's an ace, but because I think he is the best remaining bet of pitchers out there that can reasonably be expected to: start 30 games a season; be somewhere between a floor of "decent' and a ceiling of "really good" and he most likely comes in the middle; and he isn't likely to become a complete puddle in the playoffs if you get there. John Lackey is the comp I always think of. Also, because I think even after signing Montgomery, they Sox should still do whatever they can to sign a potential ace (Yamamoto) or at worst get another decent SP2/3 to go along with Montgomery and Bello (Stroman) or someone that should be slotted as SP3/4 with upside (Imanaga, Giolito, etc).
I've been saying all along that I think the Sox could ask Boras what it takes to sign Montgomery right now, and be given an answer. My guess was always 6 (or 7) and $175m, so I'll stick with offering him a bit more than Nola getting it done (7 and $175m, but if it's 8m and $180m, so be it).
To the point of Lugo "hurting", while I didn't want him, I think there is a very plausible scenario where losing him did in fact hurt. Breslow wanted him, and offered something like 3/$40m and thought he was worth that. KC offered him the deal he ended up taking and the FO and FSG are "hurt" because they've fallen so far not only in the minds of the Boston fan base but in terms of the baseball landscape that playing for Boston right now isn't seen as enough of an upgrade over playing for KC that it's worth leaving $1.33m per year on the table. That would certainly "hurt." I think it's also probably closer to true than any of us (or FSG) want to acknowledge.
(I'm not saying Boston is a bad a franchise overall as KC to be clear, but I'm saying that someone could easily look at the MLB roster right now, the rest of the division and then everything that comes playing for Boston and say "my odds of winning in the next 3 years are only slightly worse in KC as they are in Boston and I don't have to deal with @sshats like CHB, especially if I'm making an extra $1m for my troubles, so I'll go there.")
To the point of Yamamoto, I don't think of it as "the Sox are out on him", I think it's more "Yamamoto is out on the Sox". The end result is the same (he doesn't end up in Boston) but I think Boston will keep trying and make an enormous offer - and I think he will get just as enormous of an offer elsewhere that is better positioned for the next 3ish seasons.
As to the "what happens if the Sox don't get Montgomery" argument, I can totally see why people prefer the idea of spreading money around on guys like Stroman, Imanaga and the rest. There are a lot of holes in the pitching department. Don't get me wrong, the Red Sox have not invested at all in "middle class contracts" for a long time, and it's been to their detriment. If you aren't willing to pay at the top of the FA market (or can't get guys to sign here), in some ways you need to pivot to those guys and one of my major gripes with Bloom was he didn't do that. He'd either a) not bother targeting them or b) target them and fail and then c) settle for one year stop gaps. I think that is a horrible way to run a big market team.
Not what I'd "prefer" but I can totally see why you'd want 3 of those guys. But make them middle class, don't continue the incessant dumpster diving.
Best way I can think of it is to tier pitchers, of those available (because they are or were free agents) and mine would look like this:
Tier 1 - Yamamoto, (Ohtani)
Tier 2 - Nola, Snell, Montgomery.
Tier 3 - Stroman, Gray, Imanaga.
Tier 4 - Giolito, Rodriguez, Wacha.
Tier 5 - Ryu, Maeda, Lugo, Flaherty, Lynn
Tier 5 - Mahle, Montas, etc, etc.
Then the Sox need to decide what they want to be over the next 3 to 4 seasons. If they wanted to be considered "favorites to make the LCS level" they needed two from Tiers 1 and 2. I think we can all safely agree that isn't happening.
If they want to be "in the discussion for the division, good chance to make the playoffs" they probably need at least one from Tiers 1/2 and an additional Tier 3. This would look something like Montgomery, Bello, Stroman, Crawford as the top 4 of the rotation. You could probably also do that getting 3 from tiers 3 and 4 - so it'd be like Bello, Stroman, Imanaga, Giolito, Crawford.
If they want to be seriously in the conversation for a WC spot, they need at least 2 from tiers 3 and 4, one from tier 5 AND to hit on all of them (well, hit on either the Tier 5 guy or Sale being healthy all year).
I really hope that they pay up for Montgomery AND for another Tier 3 guy and put themselves in discussion for the division (as in I think a rotation of Montgomery, Bello, Stroman, Crawford) with reasonable upgrades at MI has a pretty good chance of making the playoffs and being in the division hunt.
My best guess for what actually happens though is something like @jon abbey mentioned waaaaay back (I think he used Stroman and ERod as the examples) and they upgrade to be actual WC 2 and 3 contenders, but not take on huge financial or term risks.
That would be something like Bello, Stroman, Imanaga, Crawford, 15 starts from Sale / 15 starts from Montas. A deviation from their past 3 of their past 4 seasons where they have a legitimate MLB rotation with upside (but not likely to hit on said upside), but not something that anyone would look at beginning the year and thinking "THAT is what will take down Baltimore, NYY, Houston, Texas, Atlanta and the Dodgers on the way to Title #5."
Anything less than that and the team is in for some real trouble as the battle for the best lottery odds and take on the Revs and Cannons for "shelf space" among Boston fans.
@chawson - thanks for sharing those "rumors." If literally nothing else, they're logical, which makes them a lot better than the crap someone like Nightengale or Bowden put out there, even if they're "connected." Keep 'em coming. Mostly because I think we'd all RATHER have rumors - or even legitimate moves - to talk about, and in the absence of that we talk amongst ourselves. Mostly because we're all Red Sox (or baseball) fans and in terms of coverage in the Boston sports media, the Red Sox have become basically an afterthought somewhere between the Bruins and the Revs (which was literally unthinkable to me as few as 5 years ago, but here we are), so we talk here.
As to the information in them, I agree that they seem connected enough to give them as much veracity as anything we'd give to Nightengale, Heyman, Merloni, etc.
Put me firmly in the pay Montgomery whatever it takes camp. Not because I think he's an ace, but because I think he is the best remaining bet of pitchers out there that can reasonably be expected to: start 30 games a season; be somewhere between a floor of "decent' and a ceiling of "really good" and he most likely comes in the middle; and he isn't likely to become a complete puddle in the playoffs if you get there. John Lackey is the comp I always think of. Also, because I think even after signing Montgomery, they Sox should still do whatever they can to sign a potential ace (Yamamoto) or at worst get another decent SP2/3 to go along with Montgomery and Bello (Stroman) or someone that should be slotted as SP3/4 with upside (Imanaga, Giolito, etc).
I've been saying all along that I think the Sox could ask Boras what it takes to sign Montgomery right now, and be given an answer. My guess was always 6 (or 7) and $175m, so I'll stick with offering him a bit more than Nola getting it done (7 and $175m, but if it's 8m and $180m, so be it).
To the point of Lugo "hurting", while I didn't want him, I think there is a very plausible scenario where losing him did in fact hurt. Breslow wanted him, and offered something like 3/$40m and thought he was worth that. KC offered him the deal he ended up taking and the FO and FSG are "hurt" because they've fallen so far not only in the minds of the Boston fan base but in terms of the baseball landscape that playing for Boston right now isn't seen as enough of an upgrade over playing for KC that it's worth leaving $1.33m per year on the table. That would certainly "hurt." I think it's also probably closer to true than any of us (or FSG) want to acknowledge.
(I'm not saying Boston is a bad a franchise overall as KC to be clear, but I'm saying that someone could easily look at the MLB roster right now, the rest of the division and then everything that comes playing for Boston and say "my odds of winning in the next 3 years are only slightly worse in KC as they are in Boston and I don't have to deal with @sshats like CHB, especially if I'm making an extra $1m for my troubles, so I'll go there.")
To the point of Yamamoto, I don't think of it as "the Sox are out on him", I think it's more "Yamamoto is out on the Sox". The end result is the same (he doesn't end up in Boston) but I think Boston will keep trying and make an enormous offer - and I think he will get just as enormous of an offer elsewhere that is better positioned for the next 3ish seasons.
As to the "what happens if the Sox don't get Montgomery" argument, I can totally see why people prefer the idea of spreading money around on guys like Stroman, Imanaga and the rest. There are a lot of holes in the pitching department. Don't get me wrong, the Red Sox have not invested at all in "middle class contracts" for a long time, and it's been to their detriment. If you aren't willing to pay at the top of the FA market (or can't get guys to sign here), in some ways you need to pivot to those guys and one of my major gripes with Bloom was he didn't do that. He'd either a) not bother targeting them or b) target them and fail and then c) settle for one year stop gaps. I think that is a horrible way to run a big market team.
Not what I'd "prefer" but I can totally see why you'd want 3 of those guys. But make them middle class, don't continue the incessant dumpster diving.
Best way I can think of it is to tier pitchers, of those available (because they are or were free agents) and mine would look like this:
Tier 1 - Yamamoto, (Ohtani)
Tier 2 - Nola, Snell, Montgomery.
Tier 3 - Stroman, Gray, Imanaga.
Tier 4 - Giolito, Rodriguez, Wacha.
Tier 5 - Ryu, Maeda, Lugo, Flaherty, Lynn
Tier 5 - Mahle, Montas, etc, etc.
Then the Sox need to decide what they want to be over the next 3 to 4 seasons. If they wanted to be considered "favorites to make the LCS level" they needed two from Tiers 1 and 2. I think we can all safely agree that isn't happening.
If they want to be "in the discussion for the division, good chance to make the playoffs" they probably need at least one from Tiers 1/2 and an additional Tier 3. This would look something like Montgomery, Bello, Stroman, Crawford as the top 4 of the rotation. You could probably also do that getting 3 from tiers 3 and 4 - so it'd be like Bello, Stroman, Imanaga, Giolito, Crawford.
If they want to be seriously in the conversation for a WC spot, they need at least 2 from tiers 3 and 4, one from tier 5 AND to hit on all of them (well, hit on either the Tier 5 guy or Sale being healthy all year).
I really hope that they pay up for Montgomery AND for another Tier 3 guy and put themselves in discussion for the division (as in I think a rotation of Montgomery, Bello, Stroman, Crawford) with reasonable upgrades at MI has a pretty good chance of making the playoffs and being in the division hunt.
My best guess for what actually happens though is something like @jon abbey mentioned waaaaay back (I think he used Stroman and ERod as the examples) and they upgrade to be actual WC 2 and 3 contenders, but not take on huge financial or term risks.
That would be something like Bello, Stroman, Imanaga, Crawford, 15 starts from Sale / 15 starts from Montas. A deviation from their past 3 of their past 4 seasons where they have a legitimate MLB rotation with upside (but not likely to hit on said upside), but not something that anyone would look at beginning the year and thinking "THAT is what will take down Baltimore, NYY, Houston, Texas, Atlanta and the Dodgers on the way to Title #5."
Anything less than that and the team is in for some real trouble as the battle for the best lottery odds and take on the Revs and Cannons for "shelf space" among Boston fans.
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Interesting how tight-lipped the Sox are.. Meanwhile, teams like the Mets openly broadcast to everyone they have met with him...
I like Yamamoto as much as anyone, but there's only one of him and if you're holding your breath for mid-20s free agent starters we're just never going to use money on pitching, which seems like a waste.
If they go out fishing for a #1 starter and come back with only Giolito, this offseason is an abject failure. He produced a 5.21 FIP and allowed 41 HRs last year.
Absolutely right. If the Mariners could unload Robbie Ray in ideal where they apart with Gilbert or Kirby, that would be a huge win for them -- and might allow them to sign Snell
Agreed. Again, decisions haven't been made yet and the season doesn't start tomorrow, but imagine this same level of activity under Chaim instead of Breslow. This thread would be 4 times longer and full of all of us asking ownership to sell the team and the baseball ops team to be gutted.
Been all over this for months. He has made the most sense from the start of the offseason. They’ll be aggressive there if they don’t land Yamamoto.
Boras represents both Snell and Montgomery. I'll be stunned if they sign with the same team
Yes I agree, he's the lower tier.
Then deal one starter (Pivetta or Crawford or Houck) for a 2B (Polanco or Noelvi Marte or Drury or Adames).
Better at what? He's been a worse hitter the past two years and he's a butcher defensively with less positional versatility. I'll give you baserunning I guess?
Mets are in media competition with the NYY and others for the NY sports-entertainment dollar.
As a Bloom supporter, I've come to the view that this was his great failure. (There are others, but I digress.) Sports are for many fans part of the broader entertainment spectrum. In addition to the traditional sports competition, streaming audio and video bring options for how to spend your leisure time and money without leaving home, sitting on aging and uncomfortable seats or paying $10 for a lukewarm beer. . The hard core Red Sox fan may simply be part of an aging and diminishing generation. (I go back to Piersall, Jackie Jensen and Don Buddin.) It's not enough to sell nostalgia for the Green Monster, RemDog and Big Papi, it's an audience that increasingly calls for high profile, constantly evolving stimulation.
Bloom's basic plan was correct IMO, but he failed to see that he needed to meet these entertainment requirements, and implemented what he did see terribly. His moves had none of the sexiness that would elevate the RS profile. The NYY were well ahead of the RS in that regard, and my concern is that Brez has inherited that tendency. We'll see, but the current combination of inertia and silence is concerning.
Sure, there may be valid reasons to suppress certain leaks - if for instance Yamamoto insisted on complete confidentiality - but others with minimal negative side effects would stimulate the dead season and keep interest focused. The RS competition is not just the NEP, the Celtics and the Bruins, it's Succession, Yellowstone and lots of other alternatives that come pouring in. Viewed that way, JH's communications shortcomings and the Iron Curtain of silence are a dead weight, and baseball news if any winds up tucked into page 5 of the Globe below the centerfold.
My thoughts, anyway FWIW.
Or you have an ace for the next couple of years and an injured albatross for most of the rest. Would the White Sox be loving life with their long term ace if they had signed Chris Sale to a 10 year deal when he was 25? I get that it's the way the baseball business is run these days, so you have no choice but to take risks that are almost certain not to pan out. But let's not pretend that it's a guarantee that any pitcher is going to be good for a decade.
I was about to say that @SouthernBoSox has been on this train for a while now.
I think he's definitely coming aboard. Only question is if it's with Yamamoto, Montgomery or Trade Acquisition X
I would say the most interesting thing from this quote is Boras' mouthpiece saying Montgomery might get $160M, implying current offers are below that. 6/150 for Montgomery seems like a perfectly cromulent deal for the Sox.
Now that we are already almost out of the Price / Sale situation that supposedly doomed the franchise, it’s time to do it again. Nobody better complain when they can’t resign Roman Anthony in 2029 though!
There’s always risk. But if you are going to pay a ton of money for a starter, might as well take the young option about to enter his prime. Now if we can land Imanaga at a relative bargain compared to YY, that might be the better route.
My main concern with Imanaga is he becomes middling like Kikuchi due to a relative lack of velocity. But the baseline of control seems to be better
I dunno. This seems like a false paradigm. Remember Punto! If you have a good farm (as the Sox are developing), you can weather some contracts that get bad, and when needed dump them in trades where you take on some of the out-going salary. There are creative ways out, especially if you're a rich organization.
The Sox can and SHOULD sign TWO FA pitchers. If not Yamamoto and (Wacha/Stroman), than Imanaga and Montgomery.
In 2025 we may just have three highly talented position player rookies joining the team - an influx of youth reminiscent of Lynn/Rice or Betts/Bogie ...those will be high level players for CHEAP. And the MLB starting pitching is terrible, with no blazing pitching prospects on the farm. And the team needs a jump start back into contention and the perception that they are trying to build a MLB winner.
If ever there was a time to overpay a bit for pitching it's now. It won't doom the future.
His fastball is his best pitch and it’s plus plus.
The fastball isn’t the concern with him, it’s if they can mitigate his potential home run problems.
He is an outlier in that regard. You’d have to feel comfortable it’s fixable to give him big dollars.
They have identical 119 wRC+ marks the last two years. Polanco had twice the walk rate Drury did in 2023.
To me, Drury's just like a power goof with bad plate discipline. He swings and misses a lot. He's like Renfroe who can play the infield. Not saying it'll happen next year but those guys tend to fall off a cliff more easily. Polanco seems a lot safer to me, and I think the defensive gap between them is negligible. Fielding Bible has Polanco at +1 DRS in 468 innings last year, Drury at -1 in 700 innings.
I do think Drury was a better infielder last year, but it's not like Drury is some special defensive wizard. Polanco battled a bunch of leg injuries last year, which hopefully he's recovered from, and the two were dead even in 2022 according to Baseball Prospectus' metric.
Yea, the underlying stuff is really healthy. But again, they have to think they can figure out the reason behind the homers.
I'd love Yamamoto but probably not at $400m or wherever the craziness goes. In the end you need like 10-12 guys who can handle some aspects of the getting of outs, and a high-end ace is the most satisfying of those, but there are just so many other ways to make it work. If Yamamoto goes elsewhere, which is likely just based on the number of teams involved, I'm not rending my garments. I'll just hope they build serious depth and good quality with the $400m they saved (and keep the powder dry for Sasaki, Glasnow, and the next guys).
Sorry if this has been posted in the thread, but FanGraphs does a pretty good take on Imanaga. Or at least a deeper dive than I've seen elsewhere, in their top 50 FA write up heading into the off-season. This is a lot of where I get my assertion that I think he's likely a pretty good bet to be an SP 3/4 in the big leagues, and sums up what a lot of folks have been saying about him..
While the home run rate is obviously worrying, as noted his control has been excellent. Even if the home run rate isn't grand, so long as he's keeping guys off the basepaths, it should still make him a pretty good starter. Probably pretty similar in value to Senga, maybe not quite as good, and he should at the minimum eat up a large chunk of innings with "pretty good" pitching performance, which is something the team desperately needs.
"...With so many teams hunting for pitching, someone is going to take a shot on him as a mid-rotation arm.
Player Notes
Imanaga presents MLB clubs with the skill set of an ultra-stable no. 4 or 5 starter thanks largely to his exceptional command. He walked just 4% of opposing hitters in 2023, his third straight season with a BB% below than 6%. Imanaga has enjoyed a gradual velocity increase since entering pro ball in 2016, culminating in a strong 2023 walk year that saw him set a personal record for average fastball velo across an entire season (92 mph), as well as strikeout rate (29%) and xFIP (2.38) in his 148 IP. His fastballs play up a bit due to Imanaga’s command and his low release, which is mostly created by his powerful, flexible lower body and drop-and-drive style of delivery. His low-80s slider is his finishing secondary pitch; it has plus two-plane wipe and, like the rest of his repertoire, is aided by Imanaga’s ability to locate. His stuff is otherwise pretty pedestrian. His low-70s curveball may be too slow to play in MLB and his changeup is reliant upon location much more than stuff, though of course Imanaga’s command of it is exceptional — that pitch barely ever finishes in a vulnerable spot.
Imanaga has been slightly homer-prone in Japan, with a 8.3% HR/FB rate across the last three seasons combined; the NPB average is only 6%, half the MLB rate. Any pitcher who works at the top of the zone as often as Imanaga does is likely to have a high fly ball rate, but Imanaga’s 58% FB% (the NPB average is 45%) is astronomical and points to some risk that he gets shelled by stronger MLB hitters. Perhaps I’m underrating the impact Imanaga’s command will have on his overall performance, but I think most of his value will be in the volume of innings he works rather than his pound-for-pound impact, and he strikes me as the sort of talent who gets shifted into a long relief role during October crunch time. – EL"
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top-50-mlb-free-agents/
While the home run rate is obviously worrying, as noted his control has been excellent. Even if the home run rate isn't grand, so long as he's keeping guys off the basepaths, it should still make him a pretty good starter. Probably pretty similar in value to Senga, maybe not quite as good, and he should at the minimum eat up a large chunk of innings with "pretty good" pitching performance, which is something the team desperately needs.
"...With so many teams hunting for pitching, someone is going to take a shot on him as a mid-rotation arm.
Player Notes
Imanaga presents MLB clubs with the skill set of an ultra-stable no. 4 or 5 starter thanks largely to his exceptional command. He walked just 4% of opposing hitters in 2023, his third straight season with a BB% below than 6%. Imanaga has enjoyed a gradual velocity increase since entering pro ball in 2016, culminating in a strong 2023 walk year that saw him set a personal record for average fastball velo across an entire season (92 mph), as well as strikeout rate (29%) and xFIP (2.38) in his 148 IP. His fastballs play up a bit due to Imanaga’s command and his low release, which is mostly created by his powerful, flexible lower body and drop-and-drive style of delivery. His low-80s slider is his finishing secondary pitch; it has plus two-plane wipe and, like the rest of his repertoire, is aided by Imanaga’s ability to locate. His stuff is otherwise pretty pedestrian. His low-70s curveball may be too slow to play in MLB and his changeup is reliant upon location much more than stuff, though of course Imanaga’s command of it is exceptional — that pitch barely ever finishes in a vulnerable spot.
Imanaga has been slightly homer-prone in Japan, with a 8.3% HR/FB rate across the last three seasons combined; the NPB average is only 6%, half the MLB rate. Any pitcher who works at the top of the zone as often as Imanaga does is likely to have a high fly ball rate, but Imanaga’s 58% FB% (the NPB average is 45%) is astronomical and points to some risk that he gets shelled by stronger MLB hitters. Perhaps I’m underrating the impact Imanaga’s command will have on his overall performance, but I think most of his value will be in the volume of innings he works rather than his pound-for-pound impact, and he strikes me as the sort of talent who gets shifted into a long relief role during October crunch time. – EL"
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top-50-mlb-free-agents/
The reason is he threw the highest percentage fastballs in Japan last season and threw everything over the plate. It's a good fastball, but still can't throw it like 60% of the time. When he comes here, a team will certainly change his pitch mix.
Just the passing thought of a Sox starter not walking the first batter every inning is making me drool.
I know this wasn't REALLY the case but boy did the Sox seem to always be giving up free passes.
They had the 12th fewest walks allowed as a team staff, above average.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023-standard-pitching.shtml
I don't completely disagree, however we need to keep in mind that the market price for these FA pitchers is still TBD. If the Sox take two no matter the cost there could be future concerns as to extending these highly talented rookies who are waiting in the wings. We would love to follow the Atlanta model of locking up all of our young talent and if these guys are as hoped, we should. That said we're likely to need a closer next season and if there isn't an in house solution, that wouldn't be cheap and if one of the two FA pitchers doesn't work out you may well be looking outside of the organization again to fill that need. Sale comes off the books next season as does Jansen and Martin, but some of that cash might need to be allocated in the same way next season if things don't go as planned.
I'd just settle for anyone that is a combination of "healthy enough" and "moderately decent enough" to pitch more than 165 innings since that has only happened twice in the last 3 seasons (Eovaldi in 2021 and Pivetta in 2022).
Bonus points if Breslow can actually get that player under contract for more than a season, which I think MLB still allows healthy SPs to be signed for more than one year. But based on the past 4 off-seasons of Red Sox roster building, I'm not 100% certain is still allowed.
The main concern with Imanaga is pretty clear: his HR/9 innings in the NPB is (as far as I can tell) the worst ever for a Japanese starter attempting to move to the majors. This is important because a dramatic increase in home run rate when Japanese pitchers come to the States is basically a statistical guarantee, since, unless I’ve missed someone, there isn’t a single example where this didn’t happen. So yes, he could be like Kikuchi, whose HR rate more than doubled in America. But that that would also mean he’d be like Ohtani, Tanaka, Darvish, Senga and Maeda because all their HR rates more than doubled as well. Heck, Ohtani’s HR rate tripled and Tanaka’s was more than 4 times higher in the majors.
Whats different about Imanaga? All those other guys had elite home rates in Japan. Heck, his NPB career rate of 1.0 per 9 innings is literally ten times Yamamoto’s career NPB rate (.1) and 5 times Darvish’s (.2). The worst rate among these guys also happens to be the worst starter of the group: Kikuchi. His rate in the NPB was .7 per 9 innings; it went up to 1.6 in the majors.
So the big question is what happens if, as we should all expect, Imanaga comes to the States and falls into this same pattern, something that seems like a virtual certainty based on the experience of other Japanese imports? He becomes an expensive starting pitcher in his 30s with a HR/9 above 2 per game. That sounds a lot like a more expensive version of 2023 Lance Lynn (ERA of 5.73 / FIP of 5.53).
Yeah, no thank you. And to be clear, I say this despite the fact that as a Japanese speaker and a previous long term resident of Japan I’d love to have another Japanese player on this team….
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It's a legitimate concern and one that you would have to be confident in your scouting and dev program can A)identify the reason why and B)Correct
So Imagine that you are Yamamoto, weighing your options. And lets say you are down to the sox, the mfy, the dodgers and the mets. I have to imagine that while money plays a large part, all these teams are going to be close(ish). Let's take that out of the equation.
The mfy have the big city to offer, along with the big stage, the championships blah blah blah...
The mets? I don't know what they have to offer that the mfy don't other than maybe more money? I think I'd be most surprised if he chooses the mets.
The dodgers have Shohei, a very clear willingness to spend a lot (as do the mets, but like I said maybe remove this from the equation), a shorter trip home, and well, all the goodness that goes with living in southern California. I lived there for a while in my 20's and it was a lot of fun.
The Sox? They have his old teammate in Yoshida (I don't know how friendly they were but I hope very), a very pitching oriented CBO, the small town feel of Boston?
I'm sure I'm oversimplifying this. I hate when oddsmakers place odds on these things but I think I would put my money on LA.
The mfy have the big city to offer, along with the big stage, the championships blah blah blah...
The mets? I don't know what they have to offer that the mfy don't other than maybe more money? I think I'd be most surprised if he chooses the mets.
The dodgers have Shohei, a very clear willingness to spend a lot (as do the mets, but like I said maybe remove this from the equation), a shorter trip home, and well, all the goodness that goes with living in southern California. I lived there for a while in my 20's and it was a lot of fun.
The Sox? They have his old teammate in Yoshida (I don't know how friendly they were but I hope very), a very pitching oriented CBO, the small town feel of Boston?
I'm sure I'm oversimplifying this. I hate when oddsmakers place odds on these things but I think I would put my money on LA.
Honestly, any team willing to take on that challenge for $100 million is probably guilty of hubris. I mean, Jesus, we aren’t talking about an incentivized one-year-deal. The guy can’t do the one thing that has been the hallmark characteristic of pitchers who successfully transfer from Japan to the US (limit home runs).
It’s funny to see Imanaga compared to Yamamoto, because they couldn’t be more different. I mean, if you compare Yamamoto to all the other pitchers who have attempted to transition to the states he’s the best ever at limiting home runs: his rate is an astounding .1 per innings. As much as any other factor, this is what makes him the most attractive free agent Japanese starter ever. I mean, who the hell cares if his HR rate doubles (which it most certainly will).
And yet for some reason (well, I think we know the reason) Imanaga, Yamamoto’s statistical opposite in this regard, is seen as a good alternate for those who fail to sign YY. To be clear, he isn’t. Betting on Yamamoto is like predicting warm weather in Hawaii. Imanaga is like doing the same in Alaska.
Speier apparently reports that the Sox checked in with the Mariners about trading for starters and got turned down.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/red-sox-trade-rumors-mariners-starting-pitchers.html
Feels like a "no for now" more than a dead end.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/red-sox-trade-rumors-mariners-starting-pitchers.html
Feels like a "no for now" more than a dead end.
They are going to sign for a delta somewhere in the neighborhood of $250,000,000. No one is comparing them
Yeah, I think the bigger thing is that people are starting to realize that Yamamoto to Boston isn't happening, pretty much regardless of what Boston offers him in terms of dollars, because other teams can come close enough and offer more in terms of appeal if there is any consideration beyond $1 more.
Now it's a question of comparing Imanaga to other guys that are ALSO multiple tiers below Yamamoto.
So for those whom have seen him play a lot (which it sounds like @Tokyo Sox and @kazuneko) we're trying to figure out where does he fit in with regards to a lesser extent Snell and Montgomery and more about Stroman, Giolito, Wacha, Ryu, Flaherty and the like. Nothing at all about where he fits in relative to Yamamoto. He's clearly not as good. It also seems more and more clear that the Sox aren't in a position in terms of the the MLB roster to land someone of that level (and I think they closest they can come is blowing people out of the water for a good but not great Montgomery).
The biggest draw when it comes to the Dodgers is probably going to be the championship-quality nature of their roster.
I think there's a path here for us, but it's definitely a narrow one.
There are the factors you've identified here.
Being the clear ace of the staff might appeal to him, which he doesn't get with the Yankees.
He may not want to play on the same team and play somewhat in the shadow of Ohtani.
Yoshida is probably the key though. How close is their relationship. How much does Yoshida like playing here, and how effectively has he communicated that to Yamamoto.
I'd be shocked if the Red Sox lose out on him over money. Our likely distance from a championship is probably the biggest turn-off. Hopefully the front office makes a very persuasive case in the meeting.
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