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Petagine in a Bottle

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The “two games from glory” 21 team was fun, but is that still relevant to FA’s? Only ten players from that team remain. The A’s won 86 games that year; Rangers 60, O’s 52. Feels like ancient history.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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People care about now. How could someone meet with Steve Cohen and then John Henry and come to any conclusion other than Cohen is more committed to winning?

I’m someone who has defended the ownership group. But it’s a different world now. You have financial outliers and the Red Sox aren’t one of them.
Guess I don't see how the Mets are a team that players are going to see as a "winner" when they had a worse record than the Red Sox last season. The only thing Cohen has done is shown he's willing to spend more obscene amounts of money than John Henry. I guess you can call it "commitment to winning". Bottom line is basically you're saying players are going to go where they can get the most money.

Worth pointing out that the most expensive World Series champion in terms of payroll was the 2018 Red Sox.
 

chawson

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Just using Montgomery as an example, why would one choose Boston’s offer of $130m coming off 3 of 4 last place finishes over $125m from Texas with a WS winning roster already in place and a similarly ranked farm system (MLB for instance still has Tex 10th and Bos 16th)? It’d probably have to be more like $160m from Boston.
On the flip side of this, why would Semien, Seager, deGrom, Eovaldi or Jon Gray sign with Texas when they had losing records for six consecutive seasons and finished in last place three out of four years?
 

Yaz4Ever

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I don’t think people are putting enough weight on the fact these guys want to sign with committed winning organizations, and the Red Sox have failed to be that for a while now.

It really matters.
How do the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, and Red Sox World Championships match up for the past 20 years under this ownership? Yes, we've had lean years like this one, but I'd put us up against anyone in being competitive.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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On the flip side of this, why would Semien, Seager, deGrom, Eovaldi or Jon Gray sign with Texas when they had losing records for six consecutive seasons and finished in last place three out of four years?
Because Texas blew away the competition for Seager as the first piece to show a commitment to winning. Which is exactly what I advocated the Sox do for Nola. Now I’m advocating they do it for Montgomery.

But they needed to make that “over pay” first, and I think the Sox do too.

*I don’t think it’s possible to blow away the market on YY. If they can, of course do that. I think too many are in on him to do that.Thus, I think they should on Montgomery.

Or, of course, deal prospects for that piece, and then hopefully get Montgomery at a more reasonable contract (he becomes “Semien” in this case).

But the over pay almost assuredly has to come first.
 

AlNipper49

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Because Texas blew away the competition for Seager as the first piece to show a commitment to winning. Which is exactly what I advocated the Sox do for Nola. Now I’m advocating they do it for Montgomery.

But they needed to make that “over pay” first, and I think the Sox do too.

*I don’t think it’s possible to blow away the market on YY. If they can, of course do that. I think too many are in on him to do that.Thus, I think they should on Montgomery.

Or, of course, deal prospects for that piece, and then hopefully get Montgomery at a more reasonable contract (he becomes “Semien” in this case).

But the over pay almost assuredly has to come first.
Didn't they just do this with Devers?
 

AlNipper49

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I don’t think re-upping a guy they already had has as much of an impact on the marketplace; it’s just maintaining. To get better they need to actually add players.
I guess I underestimate the value that the available free agents are basing their decisions off of the allure of playing with Jordan Montgomery.
 

SouthernBoSox

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How do the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, and Red Sox World Championships match up for the past 20 years under this ownership? Yes, we've had lean years like this one, but I'd put us up against anyone in being competitive.
I don’t disagree with this but there is a reason why free agents have passed on the Red Sox for the Rays recently.

Perception is reality and if you think for one second the perception of the Red Sox is a organization fully committed to winning you are wrong.

I personally think they are and the last few years has been a reboot but they have to show us that. They have to make a move that other players look at and say damn they are in it.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I don’t disagree with this but there is a reason why free agents have passed on the Red Sox for the Rays recently.

Perception is reality and if you think for one second the perception of the Red Sox is a organization fully committed to winning you are wrong.

I personally think they are and the last few years has been a reboot but they have to show us that. They have to make a move that other players look at and say damn they are in it.
This is ridiculous….. none of know what perceptions are actually those of players…. We know what agents say in order to drive up their clients cost. But the Sox have a high payroll. They bombed on a few of their big contracts but they spent to win and have been pulling back. It’s clear to anybody that they’re not “Rays-ing it” going forward but will spend, but not stupidly and I doubt any player just sees a team fling money at any player and thinks, wow they wanna win! Cohen has shown he spends money, but not to win.
Adding- did the Angels show a commitment to winning when they added Trout? The Rangers back when they signed ARod?
 

GPO Man

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That approach would be a foolish one for the Sox. Yamamoto doesn’t need the Sox involved to get what he wants. At this point though, I would be pretty shocked if the Sox landed him. I just don’t see them paying what it’ll take.
As much as I want him, I’m not sure it’s worth paying him what it will take. Make a substantial offer and let someone else strap their payroll.
 

Max Power

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Eflin is a Florida native who wanted to play for his hometown team.
This is another headwind for the Red Sox signing free agents. Most American players are from the south or California and you have to outbid lots of teams that are geographically closer to home.
 

GPO Man

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I think you’re spot on. Boston could very well bid the most (possible Cohen exception). I think they’ll be close. But if it’s $350m from Boston vs $360m from NYM and $340m from NYY there is no plausible reason he’d choose Boston.

This also coincides with the reports of Boston wanting to acquire a SP via trade first. Any free agent that has winning as a priority at all probably wants to not be the “first piece.” Dealing legitimate prospects for a legitimate pitcher shows a commitment to winning at the big league level that (for whatever reason) hasn’t existed in Boston for several seasons.

I would think they could still land a Boras client as the “first piece”, but they’d probably have to pay a premium to get someone to take that leap. Just using Montgomery as an example, why would one choose Boston’s offer of $130m coming off 3 of 4 last place finishes over $125m from Texas with a WS winning roster already in place and a similarly ranked farm system (MLB for instance still has Tex 10th and Bos 16th)? It’d probably have to be more like $160m from Boston.

He‘d probably need to see another piece added first (ie said trade) or be offered significantly more than Texas offers.

Its a tough spot for Breslow. Either over pay in terms of prospects, over pay in dollars, or have another two years of “evidence” that Boston isn’t committed to winning any more while waiting to see if Anthony, Teel, Mayer and Perales are Betts, Bogaerts, Rutschman, and Gilbert or if they’re more like Kelenic, F Mejia, Nick Senzel and Erick Fede - while more likely somewhere between those two extremes.

My personal take is FSG still IS committed to winning, greenlights said overpay in dollars and thus I think he chooses to overpay in “just” money, but who knows.
Breslow is going to be aggressive when he sees an opportunity that makes sense, but my guess is he will be patient rather than make a FOMO move. That is what will ultimately make him successful in the front office. There’s no sense of spending stupid money when it doesn’t guarantee winning. Long term sustainability with a good supply chain does.
 

BigSoxFan

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This is ridiculous….. none of know what perceptions are actually those of players…. We know what agents say in order to drive up their clients cost. But the Sox have a high payroll. They bombed on a few of their big contracts but they spent to win and have been pulling back. It’s clear to anybody that they’re not “Rays-ing it” going forward but will spend, but not stupidly and I doubt any player just sees a team fling money at any player and thinks, wow they wanna win! Cohen has shown he spends money, but not to win.
Adding- did the Angels show a commitment to winning when they added Trout? The Rangers back when they signed ARod?
The Red Sox clearly want to win but the last high impact trade/FA signing for a star calibre player was 5 and 7 years ago with Sale and JD. They got Story (has that potential but hasn’t been healthy) late because he was known damaged goods and they’ve also let Mookie and Bogaerts go. I get all of the underlying reasons for these movies so not looking to rehash but this is a team that desperately needs impact guys if it wants to compete for a title with teams like Texas, Houston, NYY, etc.

Right now, there is a ton of pressure on Mayer, Anthony, and Teel to fast track it to the majors and be immediate impact guys. And that makes me a bit uncomfortable. Will be interesting to see how this offseason goes. The infrastructure is there for this narrative to turn quickly.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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I don’t think people are putting enough weight on the fact these guys want to sign with committed winning organizations, and the Red Sox have failed to be that for a while now.

It really matters.
Yeah, I know people always just say "RINGZZZZ!!" in response to this discussion, but a lot has happened since 2018. Based on how this most recent PBOS search played out and some of the quotes from that survey of agents, I think it's fair to wonder what John Henry's reputation around baseball is at the moment.

Eflin is a Florida native who wanted to play for his hometown team.
I mean, fine, and I'm sure there's truth to this, but it's not like he was the only one who we heard turned down Boston's dollars. Again, maybe it is all just the way it happened to play out, but I think it's fair to speculate.
 

Yaz4Ever

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I don’t disagree with this but there is a reason why free agents have passed on the Red Sox for the Rays recently.

Perception is reality and if you think for one second the perception of the Red Sox is a organization fully committed to winning you are wrong.

I personally think they are and the last few years has been a reboot but they have to show us that. They have to make a move that other players look at and say damn they are in it.
Don't disagree at all. That said, going to the Rays or any other team that will immediately trade them when they become too expensive seems short-sided, imho. IF, big IF, we are able to land Yamamoto, I think you see players like Snell and Montgomery suddenly becoming far more interested in us. Losing out on him is going to be painful.
 

YTF

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People care about now. How could someone meet with Steve Cohen and then John Henry and come to any conclusion other than Cohen is more committed to winning?

I’m someone who has defended the ownership group. But it’s a different world now. You have financial outliers and the Red Sox aren’t one of them.
One may also question the stability of an owner who spends like a drunken soldier to bring in talent only to ship it off a year later or sooner when things don't appear to be going well.
 

YTF

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I don’t disagree with this but there is a reason why free agents have passed on the Red Sox for the Rays recently.

Perception is reality and if you think for one second the perception of the Red Sox is a organization fully committed to winning you are wrong.

I personally think they are and the last few years has been a reboot but they have to show us that. They have to make a move that other players look at and say damn they are in it.
Out of curiosity, just how many FAs have the Sox and Tampa been in competition for recently and how many have opted to go to the Rays?
 

soxhop411

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Heyman reports Sox not part of favourites for Yamamoto and Bradford reports that Snell is on the the Sox’s radar. Maybe it’s copium but is this Yamamoto’s agent saying we need to up our offer and our FO saying we have other options?
Heymans report is nothing but empty fucking calories. He says the “perceived” favorites and then goes on to list the teams that have been tied to him for months.
Its also heyman.

Edit: this fo also does not leak. And unlike the mets owners they dont try to make themselves the center of attention.
 
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chrisfont9

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This is another headwind for the Red Sox signing free agents. Most American players are from the south or California and you have to outbid lots of teams that are geographically closer to home.
I think this is pretty anecdotal, or manageable at least. You are right that this would hurt them with some guys, but there are plenty of others who like the Sox' Florida base enough to do six months in Boston -- for the right money, the right role, the right chance at a ring. The South and Southwest put out more players than the good teams within a day's drive can field. Eovaldi is a perfect example -- happy to go back to Texas, and happy it worked out with the team, but also 100% considered Boston a good place to compete. Boston may not be able to say "we have the most competitive situation" like people here sometimes suggest, but it can definitely say "we have one of the more competitive situations" based on the history, ownership and general atmosphere. It's not an ace in the hole, but it's not nothing either.

I'll add Cora as a plus. Maybe 2021 doesn't mean that much more broadly but he's not your average manager. Some players might look at farm systems and think, a five-year deal might be looking pretty sweet by the end. Also I think they judge the guys on the field differently than we do. They might see Sale not as a sunk cost who's probably going to fall off his bike again, but as a nasty badass with a HOF track record who on his good days can still make guys look foolish.

So yes, geography probably hurts the Sox sometimes but IF they offer the right money and the right role, there are enough players who will say yes to that. I think there are other northern teams that have a much harder sell to make to American southerners.
 

RS2004foreever

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People care about now. How could someone meet with Steve Cohen and then John Henry and come to any conclusion other than Cohen is more committed to winning?

I’m someone who has defended the ownership group. But it’s a different world now. You have financial outliers and the Red Sox aren’t one of them.
Because Henry has 4 titles and Cohen has none? The Mets have primarily proven that they are dumb.
 
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chrisfont9

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Because Henry has 4 titles and Cohen has none? The Mets have primarily proven that they are dumb.
Yeah, I would imagine -- without any more evidence than the people saying "OMG the Sox are sitting out the offseason!" -- that the Sox are in there making bids that look more or less like every other team besides the crazy-spending Mets guy who makes you wonder what you are signing up for. I would love to know what agents are telling their clients about offers from the Mets.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Yes the 3 last place finishes in 4 seasons stand out, but IMO saying that Boston isn't a committed, winning organization is fine only if you're willing to ignore the successes of the team under the SAME ownership over the course of the past 20 seasons. A World Series championship in '18 and were a game from a World Series appearance in '21. Sure, some might see this response as carrying water for billionaires, but it's fact. YMMV as to what "in a while" might be, but I think you have to include those seasons even if we're just talking recently. All of that said it's up to Yamamoto and his representation to do whatever research they deem necessary to make the decision that is best for the player.
It doesn’t matter what the Henry ownership did in 04 or 06 or 13. Or even 18 for that matter. Since the Red Sox last won, they shipped out their best player because they didn’t want to pay him. Their second best player was forced out because they didn’t want to pay him. They haven’t signed any big ticket free agents and they haven’t swung any trades for stars.

They have a shit starting pitching staff, no second baseman and an outfield full of questions. I am sure that Breslow and company will handle all of these questions but if I’m a free agent, why would I sign here?

And showing sepia toned videos of the 2004 team is not going to matter. Going through the list of highly paid ball players and saying, “we were once paying stars” doesn’t cut it.

It’s up to Yamamoto’s agents to research this? What are you talking about? The Red Sox have to prove to HIM that they’re going to spend with the Big Boys and not be some chit in John Henry’s portfolio of cool stuff that makes him money.

I mean you can’t really believe that a free agent who has zero ties to Boston is going to be swayed about how things used to be? C’mon.
 

BornToRun

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It doesn’t matter what the Henry ownership did in 04 or 06 or 13. Or even 18 for that matter. Since the Red Sox last won, they shipped out their best player because they didn’t want to pay him. Their second best player was forced out because they didn’t want to pay him. They haven’t signed any big ticket free agents and they haven’t swung any trades for stars.

They have a shit starting pitching staff, no second baseman and an outfield full of questions. I am sure that Breslow and company will handle all of these questions but if I’m a free agent, why would I sign here?

And showing sepia toned videos of the 2004 team is not going to matter. Going through the list of highly paid ball players and saying, “we were once paying stars” doesn’t cut it.

It’s up to Yamamoto’s agents to research this? What are you talking about? The Red Sox have to prove to HIM that they’re going to spend with the Big Boys and not be some chit in John Henry’s portfolio of cool stuff that makes him money.

I mean you can’t really believe that a free agent who has zero ties to Boston is going to be swayed about how things used to be? C’mon.
No one should be using the Xander contract, who I assume you’re referring to as their second best player, as an excuse to knock ownership. That deal was stupid from the moment the first tweets were rolling out and giving him anywhere near that made no sense, especially with Mayer on the way. The Mookie thing was 4 years ago, it’s time to move on. A deal couldn’t get done, he was dealt, and then signed his deal during covid. Devers, Story, and Yoshida show they’re willing to pay. You can take issue with how they spent that money but they aren’t just pinching pennies.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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No one should be using the Xander contract, who I assume you’re referring to as their second best player, as an excuse to knock ownership. That deal was stupid from the moment the first tweets were rolling out and giving him anywhere near that made no sense, especially with Mayer on the way. The Mookie thing was 4 years ago, it’s time to move on. A deal couldn’t get done, he was dealt, and then signed his deal during covid. Devers, Story, and Yoshida show they’re willing to pay. You can take issue with how they spent that money but they aren’t just pinching pennies.
You’re missing the point. Whether Xander is worth it or not doesn’t matter to a potential free agent and his representatives. They see him as a cornerstone, a player that won here, liked it here and spent his whole career here who left over money.

Whether he’s “worth it” or not is completely and totally irrelevant.

And for a person whose initial post was “show Yamamoto that the Red Sox spent money in 2004” to then say move on from the Mookie deal because it was “four years ago” is fucking (pun DEFINITELY intended) rich. Even Alanis Morrisette would roll her eyes at that one.
 

YTF

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It doesn’t matter what the Henry ownership did in 04 or 06 or 13. Or even 18 for that matter. Since the Red Sox last won, they shipped out their best player because they didn’t want to pay him. Their second best player was forced out because they didn’t want to pay him. They haven’t signed any big ticket free agents and they haven’t swung any trades for stars.

They have a shit starting pitching staff, no second baseman and an outfield full of questions. I am sure that Breslow and company will handle all of these questions but if I’m a free agent, why would I sign here?

And showing sepia toned videos of the 2004 team is not going to matter. Going through the list of highly paid ball players and saying, “we were once paying stars” doesn’t cut it.

It’s up to Yamamoto’s agents to research this? What are you talking about? The Red Sox have to prove to HIM that they’re going to spend with the Big Boys and not be some chit in John Henry’s portfolio of cool stuff that makes him money.

I mean you can’t really believe that a free agent who has zero ties to Boston is going to be swayed about how things used to be? C’mon.
That's a question that I wasn't addressing. The flaws of this team are well documented and I'm sure that agents and their clients are well aware. As per Boston not being seen as a committed, winning organization...Like I said, it's fine if you're willing to ignore the successes had under the same ownership it's their prerogative. Research... if you're looking at perspective employers are you making your decision solely based on what they tell you and the pay being offered or do you ask around a bit? Do you look for any pros or cons that you might not be aware of? Maybe it doesn't matter and that's fine, again it's their prerogative.
 

simplicio

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And for a person whose initial post was “show Yamamoto that the Red Sox spent money in 2004” to then say move on from the Mookie deal because it was “four years ago” is fucking (pun DEFINITELY intended) rich. Even Alanis Morrisette would roll her eyes at that one.
I may be totally missing something in the billion pages of this thread, but I don't see where @BornToRun wrote that.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I’m sure he will ask around about organizations.
His agent is Joel Wolfe, who is also Senga’s agent. Other players he represents include Darvish, Story, Arenado, Stanton, Baez, Semien. One of the top agents who has worked with everyone, so hard to read much into that.
 

simplicio

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The FO doesn't leak enough to have a real rumors thread, this is our anxiety-posting repository.
 

YTF

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There are no rumors in this thread anymore, are there? Clicking on it brings me to a lot of carping between members. Yuck.
In addition to rumors, I think it's fair to expect a certain amount of opinion and discussion of said rumors and even some information about the players being speculated upon. There are also going to be differing POVs which is fine, but I certainly understand your disappointment when seeing that the thread has been bumped.
 

cantor44

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Don't disagree at all. That said, going to the Rays or any other team that will immediately trade them when they become too expensive seems short-sided, imho. IF, big IF, we are able to land Yamamoto, I think you see players like Snell and Montgomery suddenly becoming far more interested in us. Losing out on him is going to be painful.
I wish they would do the reverse: land Snell or Montgomery, not only to fill a big hole, but also entice Yamamoto.
 

Mike473

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How do the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, and Red Sox World Championships match up for the past 20 years under this ownership? Yes, we've had lean years like this one, but I'd put us up against anyone in being competitive.
A friend of mine always says that if the Red Sox could win 1 World Series every 10 years, he would be willing to see them finish last the other 9 years. He is looking forward to next season because he thinks they will be giving away tickets by July and he can get great seats that he can't afford normally. There are a lot of different kinds of fans out there, that is for sure.
 

YTF

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A friend of mine always says that if the Red Sox could win 1 World Series every 10 years, he would be willing to see them finish last the other 9 years. He is looking forward to next season because he thinks they will be giving away tickets by July and he can get great seats that he can't afford normally. There are a lot of different kinds of fans out there, that is for sure.
This is sooooooo true and something many of us (myself included) often lose sight of.
 

YTF

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BornToRun

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You’re missing the point. Whether Xander is worth it or not doesn’t matter to a potential free agent and his representatives. They see him as a cornerstone, a player that won here, liked it here and spent his whole career here who left over money.

Whether he’s “worth it” or not is completely and totally irrelevant.

And for a person whose initial post was “show Yamamoto that the Red Sox spent money in 2004” to then say move on from the Mookie deal because it was “four years ago” is fucking (pun DEFINITELY intended) rich. Even Alanis Morrisette would roll her eyes at that one.
edit. Already covered
 

BringBackMo

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People care about now. How could someone meet with Steve Cohen and then John Henry and come to any conclusion other than Cohen is more committed to winning?

I’m someone who has defended the ownership group. But it’s a different world now. You have financial outliers and the Red Sox aren’t one of them.
Steve Cohen’s supposed commitment to winning has so far been indistinguishable from a commitment to spend more money than anyone else for a player he wants. What makes you believe that it’s some commitment to winning that has allowed him to sign players…who collectively have NOT won?
 

BringBackMo

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This entire thread has become insane. Soto is traded to the Yankees and there are rumors that YY may choose the Yankees, Mets, or some other club, and suddenly we’re again losing our fucking minds. Now we’re interpreting a YY signing elsewhere as the Red Sox no longer have a winning culture and can’t attract big time free agents. The Red Sox spent the last four seasons intentionally not signing elite free agents as part of a rebuild that everyone on this board is familiar with. The lone exception was Story, who they were able to get on a good deal. When you’re intentionally not signing top free agents, the interesting side effect is that you wind up not signing top free agents. What does that tell us about Boston as a destination for top free agents once the Sox decide to get back in that business? Nothing. If YY goes elsewhere and the Sox go full bore after Montgomery and/or Snell and come up empty handed, then let’s have this discussion. Right now we’re just whining because the guy that everyone has decided is the top target (but who has never pitched in the majors) is rumored to be going elsewhere.
 

BringBackMo

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The Mets did win 101 games in 22, no?
Oh, so all you have to do is win a lot of games, but not a championship, in one year to demonstrate a winning culture? The Sox went to the ALCS in 2021. You just told us that was ancient history. Apparently a good run and no championship two years ago counts as a winning culture, but not three years ago.
 

E5 Yaz

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This entire thread has become insane. Soto is traded to the Yankees and there are rumors that YY may choose the Yankees, Mets, or some other club, and suddenly we’re again losing our fucking minds. Now we’re interpreting a YY signing elsewhere as the Red Sox no longer have a winning culture and can’t attract big time free agents. The Red Sox spent the last four seasons intentionally not signing elite free agents as part of a rebuild that everyone on this board is familiar with. The lone exception was Story, who they were able to get on a good deal. When you’re intentionally not signing top free agents, the interesting side effect is that you wind up not signing top free agents. What does that tell us about Boston as a destination for top free agents once the Sox decide to get back in that business? Nothing. If YY goes elsewhere and the Sox go full bore after Montgomery and/or Snell and come up empty handed, then let’s have this discussion. Right now we’re just whining because the guy that everyone has decided is the top target (but who has never pitched in the majors) is rumored to be going elsewhere.
Not only that ... but posters have stopped breaking long posts into paragraphs!!!
:drunk:
 
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