Offseason rumors

[YTF]

They already have a front of the rotation starter (per BP's WARP), they really only need one more. Story playing SS is going to make Bello better, and that's before factoring in Bailey. There's a good argument to make that Bailey can refine Crawford and Houck enough to perfectly fine mid rotation guys. With another top of the rotation guy they should be good enough to spare the bullpen. And there is certainly bullpen help close to the majors (Guerrero, Troye). Improving 2B defense would also help. They might not be title contenders in '24, but by '25 they will be.

I love that we have Breslow and Bailey on board given all of the hype about their pitching philosophy. That said there is one thing we have to come to grips with. They are not going to refine or "fix" everyone. I hope to see some changes, but we have to realize that while they are going to target certain types of pitchers moving forward, they've also inherited a staff that they haven't hand picked, so it's going to be interesting to see which of the inherited might benefit from B&B and which will be moved on from.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Actual rumor incoming...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/latest-on-framber-valdez-2.html

Mayer-plus. Whatever it takes (except Teel and Anthony).

See this is why they really need to sign Yamamoto. Because if they do get him I completely agree with you, but if they don’t I think it would be foolish.

They need a long term anchor to build around and make aggressive moves to add to.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Actual rumor incoming...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/latest-on-framber-valdez-2.html

Mayer-plus. Whatever it takes (except Teel and Anthony).

Are they trading Jeremy Pena too?

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Actual rumor incoming...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/latest-on-framber-valdez-2.html

Mayer-plus. Whatever it takes (except Teel and Anthony).

Agreed. With the exception of if they'd take Mayer and Teel and that gets it done, I'd do it.

That said, I'd prefer Meyer + literally their choice of anything in any number from the organization that is not Bello, Casas, Anthony or Teel, but ultimately if forced to, I'd include Teel.

 

[Rovin Romine]

FWIW, as of a year ago Dice-K still lived part of the year in the Boston area, and offered his advice to Yoshida after he signed.
https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/matsuzaka-is-at-the-ready-with-advice-for-masa-yoshida

So, regardless of how he was treated by the fan base, it didn't keep him from feeling at home here

Very good to hear.

 

[chrisfont9]

Are they trading Jeremy Pena too?

Guessing they aren't super committed to him long term. His walks were up but the rest of his numbers on offense and defense were down from 2022.

 

[YTF]

Actual rumor incoming...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/latest-on-framber-valdez-2.html

Mayer-plus. Whatever it takes (except Teel and Anthony).

This article pretty much makes every argument for Houston not to trade him, saying nothing of the fact that there is zero indication that Houston is looking to move him.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Are they trading Jeremy Pena too?

Bregman’s in his walk year, so they could move either of them to third. In theory.

 

[BringBackMo]

We need more than one starter.

And what if the judgment of the front office is that there’s a chance to sign more than one of the top guys? Or to sign one and trade for another? Or to replicate the production of one of the middle-tier FAs at a lower cost? Should the team just throw all that out the window because the Royals and Cardinals are snapping up guys the Sox may like but not love?

Look, the team has made the announcement that it’s going to compete this year. I don’t agree with that approach, but that’s where we’re headed. They have a plan. If they are in GFIN and fail to deliver what every single observer agrees is required—two good starters—then let the criticism rain down on Breslow and company. But why sit here whining about all the not so great options that are coming off the board when all the top options are still there and we are hearing from media outlets that the Sox are in on all of them?

I say watch now, whine later.

 

[nighthob]

I love that we have Breslow and Bailey on board given all of the hype about their pitching philosophy. That said there is one thing we have to come to grips with. They are not going to refine or "fix" everyone. I hope to see some changes, but we have to realize that while they are going to target certain types of pitchers moving forward, they've also inherited a staff that they haven't hand picked, so it's going to be interesting to see which of the inherited might benefit from B&B and which will be moved on from.

For what it's worth I'm not sure they can "fix" Pivetta and Whitlock. I think Crawford (due to the repertoire) and Houck (the man certainly has a good arm) can be improved, though. Houck is already pretty close to being a perfectly cromulent #3, so I don't see him as a reclamation project.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I love that we have Breslow and Bailey on board given all of the hype about their pitching philosophy. That said there is one thing we have to come to grips with. They are not going to refine or "fix" everyone. I hope to see some changes, but we have to realize that while they are going to target certain types of pitchers moving forward, they've also inherited a staff that they haven't hand picked, so it's going to be interesting to see which of the inherited might benefit from B&B and which will be moved on from.

It'll be interesting to see how they value Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, Wink, Murphy and Walter. All seem to be either back of rotation starters or multi-inning relievers and all are to a varying degree cost controlled. There is some redundancy here, as well as some value as part of a package to smaller market teams or ones looking to shed payroll. I'd be shocked if one or two of these guys aren't moved before ST

 

[Rasputin]

Yeah, that's where I'm at too. It's kind of like saying "you know, we were born on the same day, year and city, so I'm just the incredibly good looks and about a hundred million dollars away from being right there with Chris Evans."

Except none of being born on the same day, year, and city is what makes Chris Evans Chris Evans.

That's actually quite a lot. Two top starting pitchers? So Yammamoto and one of Snell or Montgomery or Imanaga? I don't know how people think that is going to happen for the Sox, or any team really, given the shortage of front line pitching that is available and the number of teams that feel like they are one pitcher away from going over the top.

The outfielder and second baseman don't have to be difference makers. They just have to be moderately better than average. And we might already have them in house. The pitchers just cost money. A truly obscene amount of it, but just money. If you think Bello is going to improve--which is certainly a possibility--maybe we only need one starter.

And...it's not a disaster if it's not done this off season. A make-the-playoffs-but-get-bounced-early would be welcome to a lot of people and we'll know more about Bello, Rafaela, Duran, Abreu, and the slew of arms that are fighting for rotation and bullpen spots this spring.

 

[NickEsasky]

And what if the judgment of the front office is that there’s a chance to sign more than one of the top guys? Or to sign one and trade for another? Or to replicate the production of one of the middle-tier FAs at a lower cost? Should the team just throw all that out the window because the Royals and Cardinals are snapping up guys the Sox may like but not love?

Look, the team has made the announcement that it’s going to compete this year. I don’t agree with that approach, but that’s where we’re headed. They have a plan. If they are in GFIN and fail to deliver what every single observer agrees is required—two good starters—then let the criticism rain down on Breslow and company. But why sit here whining about all the not so great options that are coming off the board when all the top options are still there and we are hearing from media outlets that the Sox are in on all of them?

I say watch now, whine later.

I’m not whining I’m just countering your two examples with the fact that there could have been a middle ground where one of the “lesser” starters off the board could have helped next year. Of course we don’t know where we end up after all the dust settles and Spring Training begins, but if we don’t get any big fish and we missed out on all the smaller fish, next season isn’t gonna be all that great.

 

[chrisfont9]

This article pretty much makes every argument for Houston not to trade him, saying nothing of the fact that there is zero indication that Houston is looking to move him.

Sure, no sense penciling him into our lineup right now. But if he doesn't get extended, I'd for sure want to be ready for his walk year.

 

[YTF]

Agreed. With the exception of if they'd take Mayer and Teel and that gets it done, I'd do it.

That said, I'd prefer Meyer + literally their choice of anything in any number from the organization that is not Bello, Casas, Anthony or Teel, but ultimately if forced to, I'd include Teel.

Sure, no sense penciling him into our lineup right now. But if he doesn't get extended, I'd for sure want to be ready for his walk year.

Valdez is their best pitcher. According to the article he's likely going to make $13ishM this coming season (year 3 arb) and maybe less than $20M in '25 (year 4 arb) before he hits free agency. Houston is not trading him and he's not an FA for another 2 years.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Valdez is their best pitcher. According to the article he's likely going to make $13ishM this coming season (year 3 arb) and maybe less than $20M in '25 (year 4 arb) before he hits free agency. Houston is not trading him and he's not an FA for another 2 years.

Yeah, ultimately agree.

The more this off-season unfolds, I’m kind of beginning to believe the Red Sox don’t have the assets (outside of Bello, Casas and Anthony) to land a top half of the rotation starter with any term.

Glasnow cost Pepiot, and the Sox have literally nobody of that caliber (ex Bello) to deal.

(And Valdez is far better than Glasnow.)

 

[jon abbey]

No one has rumored this that I'm aware of but if BOS isn't able to upgrade the rotation as much as they'd like, would it make any sense to sign Matt Chapman, move Devers to DH, and upgrade the run prevention that way?

 

[chrisfont9]

Valdez is their best pitcher. According to the article he's likely going to make $13ishM this coming season (year 3 arb) and maybe less than $20M in '25 (year 4 arb) before he hits free agency. Houston is not trading him and he's not an FA for another 2 years.

OK. Anyway here is why Rosenthal brought it up:

The Astros
Executives from two clubs indicated this week that their teams are monitoring the possibility of the Astros trading left-hander Framber Valdez.

For a variety of reasons, such a move could make sense.

The Astros’ luxury-tax payroll, according to Fangraphs, currently stands at $237.4 million, slightly above the first threshold. Under owner Jim Crane, the team has exceeded the threshold only once, in the shortened 2020 season, when it turned out penalties were suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Valdez, 30, is projected to earn $12.1 million in arbitration and become a free agent after the 2025 season. Trading him could provide a boost to the Astros’ farm system, which Baseball America ranked 27th in its midseason organization rankings. Perhaps the Astros could acquire help for their major-league bullpen, too.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Iwant to

No one has rumored this that I'm aware of but if BOS isn't able to upgrade the rotation as much as they'd like, would it make any sense to sign Matt Chapman, move Devers to DH, and upgrade the run prevention that way?

Can’t imagine Raffy would be thrilled, and you’d be forced to play Yoshida in the field. Guess it depends on the price, but Chapman’s last few years haven’t been great, I would be a little nervous about committing to him for too long.

 

[simplicio]

Chapman also costs a QO pick and had pretty worrying offense outside of 2 monster months.

 

[Salem's Lot]

Iwant to


Can’t imagine Raffy would be thrilled, and you’d be forced to play Yoshida in the field. Guess it depends on the price, but Chapman’s last few years haven’t been great, I would be a little nervous about committing to him for too long.

Devers has already signed his long term deal so maybe he could be sold on the idea of not wearing his body down playing the field.

 

[moondog80]

Given the investment, I don’t see them giving up on the idea of Devers as a 3B just yet.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

No one has rumored this that I'm aware of but if BOS isn't able to upgrade the rotation as much as they'd like, would it make any sense to sign Matt Chapman, move Devers to DH, and upgrade the run prevention that way?

I‘m sure others have as well, but I know that I too suggested that the other day in a “desperate act of last resort“ kind of way (to be good, you’d still need JM and Garrett and let’s say Stroman.)

They‘d still need to add some reliable ground ball pitchers that can be reasonably projected for 150ip of decent or better pitching. I’d still want JM here, but my personal targets would be Braxton Garrett, Stroman and Giolito (because getting even Garrett may be unrealistic).

They‘d then need to sign Chapman and I’d personally go with Rosario to play 2b.

It‘d look like:

Rafaela / Duran - CF
Yoshida - LF
Devers - DH
Story - SS
Casas - 1b
Chapman - 3b
O’Neill / Abreu - RF
Rosario - 2b
Wong - C

SP1 - Bello
SP 2 - Garrett
SP3 - Stroman
SP4 - Giolito
SP5 - Crawford / Houck

*One of Houck or Crawford would almost certainly be gone in a Garrett deal, as would one of Duran, Abreu or Rafaela.

**I don’t really think that gets it done for Garrett, so it’d be Bello, Stroman, Giolito, Crawford, Houck as the rotation.

I don’t think that team has literally any chance at winning the division, nor even WC 1 or 2. But I think it’s also a heck of a lot better than they’ve rolled out in 2022 or 2023.

I think they need another SP2 at minimum (ie Montgomery) and an SP3/4, but that would be my “the Sox are effed anyway, so try to be a bit more competitive for the next 3 years alternative.”

 

[BringBackMo]

I’m not whining I’m just countering your two examples with the fact that there could have been a middle ground where one of the “lesser” starters off the board could have helped next year. Of course we don’t know where we end up after all the dust settles and Spring Training begins, but if we don’t get any big fish and we missed out on all the smaller fish, next season isn’t gonna be all that great.

I completely agree that it’s going to be a big swing and miss if they don’t land two good starters this offseason—because they’ve announced they are going for it. But the decision not to move on Lugo, Gray, et al tells us nothing at the moment about whether they have a plan in motion.

 

[cantor44]

See this is why they really need to sign Yamamoto. Because if they do get him I completely agree with you, but if they don’t I think it would be foolish.

They need a long term anchor to build around and make aggressive moves to add to.

Yes, there is one potentially great pitcher in YY and a couple very good ones in Snell and Montgomery out there. I'd rather the team spend on two free agents then let go any of their top 3 prospects to get a pitcher. It seems some overpay dealt with later is less of a consequence than trading players that may well be part of the next core and who can be on the roster for a while at least at a cost that off sets the overpay. Yes, many top prospects don't work out. But these three have upper-echelon ceilings. Why give them up when you can get folks on par with Valdez for just money (and with Snell the pick yes)?

 

[chrisfont9]

More alleged rumors. If the Giants want to swap pitching prospects for positional ones, the Sox should probably check in.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/giants-considering-trading-from-group-of-young-pitchers.html

 

[E5 Yaz]

More alleged rumors. If the Giants want to swap pitching prospects for positional ones, the Sox should probably check in.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/giants-considering-trading-from-group-of-young-pitchers.html

MLBTR is just picking apart Rosenthal's pitching market column from this morning and writing individual stories out of it. Gets them clicks, though

 

[allmanbro]

More alleged rumors. If the Giants want to swap pitching prospects for positional ones, the Sox should probably check in.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/giants-considering-trading-from-group-of-young-pitchers.html

Apparently they want young athletic position players. Rafaela or Duran would fit. How even or uneven would it be to swap one of the for Kyle Harrison? Baseball Trade Value has Duran/Harrison almost exactly even, but how far has Harrison's prospect stock fallen this year?

 

[chrisfont9]

Apparently they want young athletic position players. Rafaela or Duran would fit. How even or uneven would it be to swap one of the for Kyle Harrison? Baseball Trade Value has Duran/Harrison almost exactly even, but how far has Harrison's prospect stock fallen this year?

Yeah, Duran is needed now. That's a step backwards in the short term, which I don't think the Sox can afford to take.

 

[chrisfont9]

MLBTR is just picking apart Rosenthal's pitching market column from this morning and writing individual stories out of it. Gets them clicks, though

That's pretty much what they do, albeit not focusing quite so much on one guy's work usually.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

MLBTR also reporting (from Rosenthal) that Royals - Rays were discussing Lazardo for Pasquantino.... if that's the price, I hope we are on line 1.

 

[allmanbro]

Yeah, Duran is needed now. That's a step backwards in the short term, which I don't think the Sox can afford to take.

Agreed. I was hoping Rafaela could work, but he'd need supplemental pieces. It SFG wants MLB ready guys over prospects, they may just not match up well. Unless they really like Rafaela.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

It’s also not clear to me why the Giants would want any outfielder, the Lee signing gives them six or seven now. Granted two of those are Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto, but still.

I’m not doubting the rumor, exactly, but it’s not super-clear where the Giants should be upgrading, they don’t have an obvious hole, but they also don’t have anyone who overwhelms you with their awesomeness. I assume Luciano takes over SS, so 2B or 3B maybe?

 

[jacklamabe65]

Boston Strong

@BostonStrong_34

Mark Feinsand reports that Yoshinobu Yamamoto “could make his decision in the next few days” and confirms that the Red Sox met with him in California.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

It just

Boston Strong
@BostonStrong_34

Mark Feinsand reports that Yoshinobu Yamamoto “could make his decision in the next few days” and confirms that the Red Sox met with him in California.

Has he even seen Fenway? Boston? If he just stayed in LA how is it anyone other than the Dodgers?

 

[GPO Man]

It just

Has he even seen Fenway? Boston? If he just stayed in LA how is it anyone other than the Dodgers?

Hopefully they blew him away with an offer, because money is all they have to convince him.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

It just

Has he even seen Fenway? Boston? If he just stayed in LA how is it anyone other than the Dodgers?

I’d imagine it’s just much easier on someone flying from Japan to get to California and hold all your meetings there perhaps ?

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I’d imagine it’s just much easier on someone flying from Japan to get to California and hold all your meetings there perhaps ?

His agency is based out of California, so that isn’t really my point on the meetings. My point is, if you are signing a decade long contact, don’t you go visit the place?

 

[joe dokes]

I love that we have Breslow and Bailey on board given all of the hype about their pitching philosophy. That said there is one thing we have to come to grips with. They are not going to refine or "fix" everyone. I hope to see some changes, but we have to realize that while they are going to target certain types of pitchers moving forward, they've also inherited a staff that they haven't hand picked, so it's going to be interesting to see which of the inherited might benefit from B&B and which will be moved on from.

I think "fix" is a term that has a different meaning for different people. I don't see "fixing" it as "turning them into stars," but instead "helping them become starters who pitch well 60% of the time instead of 40% or relievers who pitch well 75% of the time instead of 50%."

 

[GPO Man]

His agency is based out of California, so that isn’t really my point on the meetings. My point is, if you are signing a decade long contact, don’t you go visit the place?

He went to New York, right? It is a little disappointing he didn’t visit Fenway.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

His agency is based out of California, so that isn’t really my point on the meetings. My point is, if you are signing a decade long contact, don’t you go visit the place?

Sure seems that way. Get a sense of the city, the legendary ballpark, etc. I’m generally not one to jump to the worst conclusion, but I have a really hard time believing that he’s going to sign anywhere without a visit.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

He went to New York, right? It is a little disappointing he didn’t visit Fenway.

Yankees met with him in LA.

 

[BringBackMo]

He went to New York, right? It is a little disappointing he didn’t visit Fenway.

Please do a bare minimum of homework before posting. A quick search will confirm that a Yankees contingent flew to LA to meet with Yamamoto.

 

[Remagellan]

In the end, money will matter less than where he wants to be. Because the higher the money gets, the less difference between the offers will matter more than where this young man wants to spend the majority of his time between the rest of his twenties and his mid-thirties. The Sox are at a huge disadvantage, because this team has done little to show they're ready to be competitive with the top teams this coming season, while the MFYs, Dodgers, and Giants have all made major acquisitions to that end.

The only team I could see really blowing him out of the water with an offer would be the Mets, because Cohen could offer him a deal in the neighborhood of Ohtani's without the deferred money shenanigans. And YY can go there knowing that, unlike in Boston, the ownership will always be ready to spend money to be competitive, although with less assurance that it will be spent wisely than in other places (like the Dodgers or the MFYs).

 

[BringBackMo]

His agency is based out of California, so that isn’t really my point on the meetings. My point is, if you are signing a decade long contact, don’t you go visit the place?

Even if we take these recent reports at face value, they indicate that Yamamoto “could” make a decision within days. That probably leaves plenty of time to visit a narrowed down list of finalists.

Overall, though, I think we should prepare ourselves that he may sign elsewhere despite a great offer from the Sox. All the deep-pocketed teams want him, so we’d do well to assume that the Sox have backup plans. Let’s at least give them the benefit of that doubt. For now.

 

[GPO Man]

Please do a bare minimum of homework before posting. A quick search will confirm that a Yankees contingent flew to LA to meet with Yamamoto.

My bad, I thought I had read he came to NY. I guess it’s an even playing field, at least for the east coast teams.

 

[BringBackMo]

And YY can go there knowing that, unlike in Boston, the ownership will always be ready to spend money to be competitive, although with less assurance that it will be spent wisely than in other places (like the Dodgers or the MFYs).

In the middle of a rebuild last year, the Sox had a middle of the pack payroll. Different places track these things differently but here is one site’s ranking of their payroll for every year since Henry has owned the team. Keep in mind that the Sox have publicly announced they are no longer rebuilding and are ready to spend. I think anyone signing with the Red Sox can be quite confident that they will spend what is required to field a competitive club.

23. 13th
22 6th
21 3rd
20. 3rd
19. 1st
18. 1st
17. 3rd
16. 3rd
15. 3rd
14. 4th
13. 4th
12. 3rd
11. 3rd
10. 2nd
09. 4th
08. 4th
07. 2nd
06. 2nd
05. 2nd
04. 2nd
03. 6th

http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm

 

[Remagellan]

Sure, but that's all hypothetical. "We're spending on you and then we're looking to add more" doesn't play as well as "As you can see, we've already made some bold moves to compete, and you could be the final piece to the puzzle."

I think he's going to wind up with the Dodgers. They know they need more than one starter, and I would not be surprised if Ohtani pushing that money into the future was specifically intended to free the money necessary to land Yamamoto.

 

[joe dokes]

In the end, money will matter less than where he wants to be. Because the higher the money gets, the less difference between the offers will matter more than where this young man wants to spend the majority of his time between the rest of his twenties and his mid-thirties. The Sox are at a huge disadvantage, because this team has done little to show they're ready to be competitive with the top teams this coming season, while the MFYs, Dodgers, and Giants have all made major acquisitions to that end.

Of course that line of thinking could have led him to sign with the Mets or Padres last winter.

 

[BringBackMo]

Sure, but that's all hypothetical. "We're spending on you and then we're looking to add more" doesn't play as well as "As you can see, we've already made some bold moves to compete, and you could be the final piece to the puzzle."

I think he's going to wind up with the Dodgers. They know they need more than one starter, and I would not be surprised if Ohtani pushing that money into the future was specifically intended to free the money necessary to land Yamamoto.

I agree the Dodgers are the front runners.